nzd/usd

NZD/USD Currency Pair Analysis

NZD/USD ke spot prices is waqt teen mahine ke record low level par trade kar rahe hain, critical 0.6000 level ke just upar. Yeh charts par bearish breakout ko confirm karta hai, kyunke price 50-day moving average se neeche gir gayi hai. Yeh US dollar ke resurgence ki wajah se hai. Federal Reserve ke immediate interest rate cuts ke baare mein recent talks ne ummeedon ko tod diya hai. Ab yeh ummeed hai ke Fed rates ko steady rakhega aur US Treasury yields ko boost karega. Mazid, investors important US inflation data ke aane se pehle apni positions strategically set kar rahe hain, jo USD ko mazid strengthen kar raha hai. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) se ane wali interest rate cut ki wajah se NZD par asar pad raha hai, jo market sentiment ko dampen kar raha hai aur risk-sensitive Kiwi dollar ko weaken kar raha hai. NZD/USD ke liye asan rasta neeche ka hai. Lekin, kuch traders dekhne ka intezar kar rahe hain pehle ke aur selling karein. U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index ke release hone se future Federal Reserve policy decisions aur further rate cuts ke possibilities par roshni dalne ki umeed hai.




Technical standpoint se dekha jaye, to recent days mein NZD/USD ke liye short aur long-term challenges hain. Price 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) 0.6145 ko break karne mein struggle kar rahi hai, jo possible bearish reversal ka signal de raha hai. Negative technical indicators downtrend ko support karte hain, lekin sellers hesitate kar rahe hain jab tak 0.6085-0.6095 ke support zone hold karte hain. Agar bears price ko is support area se neeche push karte hain, to 50-day aur 200-day moving averages temporary resistance provide kar sakte hain 0.6060 ke around, jo rapid decline ko 0.5980-0.6000 ki taraf rok sakte hain. Ek aur breakdown 0.5940 area ki taraf le ja sakta hai, jahan ek important long-term support line hai. Dusri taraf, agar kaafi buyers emerge hote hain aur price ko 20-day EMA se upar push karte hain, to initial resistance 0.6213 ke near milegi, followed by strong hurdle in the 0.6245-0.6260 range. Ek successful rally potentially 0.6300 ke psychological level ko target kar sakti hai ya December 2023 ke high 0.6368 ko challenge kar sakti hai.

Yeh ek local analysis hai, aur main apne perspective ko adjust karne ke liye open hoon based on how the price behaves at these key support zones.

### NZD/USD H4 Chart

New Zealand dollar (NZD) pichle teen din se mazbooti par hai aur European trading mein Thursday ko 0.6120 ke aas paas pohanch gaya hai US dollar (USD) ke muqablay. Yeh surge USD ke kamzor hone ki wajah se hai, jo ke disappointing US data ki wajah se hua, jisne Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts ke speculation ko janam diya. ADP employment report ne sirf 150,000 naye jobs June mein add kiye, jo pichle paanch mahine ka sabse kam increase hai aur expectations se neeche raha. Tasman Sea ke across, New Zealand's Reserve Bank (RBNZ) agle hafte ek rate decision lene wala hai, jab unhone 5.5% par rates ko saat consecutive meetings ke liye hold kiya hai. Traders statement mein clues dhoond rahe honge taake future interest rates ka path gauge kar sakein. Lekin, ek potential headwind NZD ke liye tab samne aaya jab China ka Service PMI, jo ke New Zealand ke major trading partner ki economic health ka ek key indicator hai, May ke 54.0 se June mein 51.2 par dip kar gaya.



Aaj, Asian session mein buyers pehle hi resistance level ko test kar rahe hain, jo ke meri markings ke mutabiq 0.60827 par hai. Halaat dekhte hue, aaj main designated resistance level par apni observations continue rakhunga, jahan do scenarios ho sakte hain situation develop hone ke. Pehla scenario reversal candle ke formation aur downward price movement ke resumption se hai. Agar yeh plan workout hota hai, to main price ko support level tak move karne ki umeed rakhunga, jo ke 0.59940 par hai, ya phir support level jo ke 0.59810 par hai. In support levels ke kareeb, main trading setup ke formation ki umeed rakhunga, jo ke trading ke future direction ko determine karne mein madad karega. Ek aur option bhi hai ke more distant southern targets ko work out kiya jaye, lekin main abhi isko consider nahi kar raha kyunke mujhe iski quick implementation ke prospects nahi dikh rahe.

Ek alternative option price movement ke liye aaj ke testing ke doran resistance level 0.60827 par plan hai ke price is level se upar fix ho jaye aur further northern movement ho. Agar yeh plan workout hota hai, to main price ko resistance level tak move karne ki umeed rakhunga, jo ke 0.62152 par hai. Is resistance level ke kareeb, main trading setup ke formation ki umeed rakhunga, jo ke trading ke future direction ko determine karne mein madad karega. General taur par, agar hum brief mein baat karein, to aaj locally mujhe apne liye kuch interesting nazar nahi aa raha, is liye main nearest resistance level ki observations ko continue rakhunga.

NZD/USD H-1 Time Frame Chart

Pichle hafte NZD/USD currency pair mein buyers ka bol-bala tha. Lekin US dollar kamzor sirf New Zealand dollar ke muqablay nahi, balkay lagbhag poore market spectrum mein tha, chand exceptions ke sath. Wave structure upwards direction mein apna order bana raha hai. MACD indicator upper buy zone mein hai. Market khulte hi ek choti si gap downwards aayi, jo jaldi hi cover ho gayi aur price ne last week ke maximum level ko update kiya. Ab ek corrective decline hone ke imkaan hain, kyun ke MACD indicator par ek bara aur khubsurat bearish divergence bana hai. CCI indicator par bhi bearish divergence bana jab price ne subah maximum level ko update kiya. Yeh koi hairat ki baat nahi ke price wahan se neeche chali gayi. Aise signals processed hote hain agar market mein koi anomaly na ho. Doosre major currency pairs mein bhi aise hi signals hain, khaaskar euro aur pound bhi downward correction ke liye tayar hain.

Iss waqt price horizontal support level 0.6133 ko break karne ki koshish kar rahi hai, jo ke aksar successful ho jayegi aur ascending support line tak pohanch jayegi jo waves ke bottom se top tak bani hui hai. Ek upward bounce aur pehle se broken level 0.6133 par resistance ke tor par wapas aane ka imkaan hai. Yeh ek behtareen jaga hogi sell positions lene ke liye. Ek high probability hai ke price 0.6105 level tak decline karegi, jo ke points mein zyada bara distance nahi hai. Aaj ke economic calendar mein koi important news nahi hai, isliye last week ke rapid growth ke bad ek normal correction day expected hai. Isliye, abhi ke liye purchases ko postpone karna better hoga.

NZD/USD H-4 Analysis

NZD/USD pair ki price movement, jo pichle hafte tak decline ho rahi thi, ab bhi lower low - lower high pattern structure ko dikhati hai. Magar ab ek upward rally dekhne ko mil rahi hai jo takreeban SBR 0.6104 area ko resistance ke tor par choo rahi hai. Agar price trend upar ki taraf continue karta hai, to SBR area ko paar karne par structure ka break hoga. 0.6105 ka high price lower low - lower high pattern structure ke invalidation level par hai. Is level ko paar karne par nayi price pattern ya trend direction ke structure mein tabdeeli ka trigger milega.

Abhi trend direction bearish hai, magar kamzor hoti nazar aa rahi hai kyunki price EMA 50 aur SMA 200 ke darmiyan move kar rahi hai. Yeh indicate karta hai ke do Moving Average lines cross karke golden cross signal de sakti hain. Agar price jo upar move karne ki koshish kar rahi hai, SBR 0.6104 area ke ird-gird false break ya rejection experience karti hai, to price wapas gir sakti hai aur EMA 50 ko paar kar sakti hai. Price support 0.6054 ko bhi test kar sakti hai jab yeh EMA 50 ke neeche hoti hai kyunki lower low - lower high pattern structure zaroor continue karega.



H4 timeframe par, yeh weakening kaafi valid hai jahan pehle ssr area 0.6092 par break out hua aur price ko mazid kamzor hote dekha ja sakta hai. Agla support target price 0.6052 par hai, jabki supply area jahan se re-enter sell kiya ja sakta hai woh price area 0.6092 par hai jo naya resistance ban gaya hai break out hone ke baad. Agar hum is timeframe ko reduce karein, to us area mein supply milti hai, isliye market mein enter karne ke liye yeh area behtareen hai.

Akhar mein, NZD/USD currency pair ke liye overall trend positive rehne ki umeed hai, jahan bulls market ko control mein rakhenge. Yeh bullish sentiment continued upward momentum dikhata hai jo traders ko trend se faida uthane ka mauka deta hai. Key price levels par nazar rakh kar, technical analysis tools ka istemal karte hue aur fundamental factors se ba-khabar rahkar, traders well-informed decisions le sakte hain aur NZD/USD pair ki ongoing strength se potentially faida utha sakte hain.

NZD/USD ANALYSIS

"Agar is haftay ke market ki situation par 4-hour time frame chart dekha jaye, to lagta hai ke NzdUsd pair ki keemat ab bhi 0.6137 par ruki hui hai. Is ki position ab simple moving average zone of period 100 ke upar uda chuki hai, jo mein market price ki safar ka tajziya karne ke liye istemal karta hoon. Haftay ke end tak market trend Uptrend zone yaani ke uppar ki taraf chal raha hai. Aane wale hafte ke trading ke mutabiq, mein yeh tashkeel karta hoon ke keemat ki safar abhi bhi uppar ki taraf hosakti hai, phir candlestick ko izafa hone ka mauqa hosakta hai kyun ke haftay ka trend haqeeqatan bullish hai.

Aakhri kuch dinon ke market shara'ait ke mutabiq lagta hai ke khareedne wale ka control keemat ko uppar ki taraf le jane mein hosakta hai bullish continuation ke mauqa ke saath. Stochastic indicator 5,3,3 80 zone ko chu raha hai jo ke khareedne wale ka control dikha raha hai. Market ki safar mein jo momentum ho raha hai woh bullish trend ke saath hosakta hai. Aane wale hafte ke liye mein yeh tashkeel karta hoon ke keemat uppar ki taraf jari rehna chahegi, lekin ehtiyat bartani chahiye kyun ke keemat kuch dinon mein rukh badal sakti hai aur neechay ki taraf ja sakti hai jo bullish trend ko bearish mein tabdeel kar sakta hai, lekin yeh sirf aik tashkeel hai.

Agar aglay keemat ki safar izafa karti hai aur candlestick 0.6162 ki position ko chu leti hai, to trend zyada mutawazan tarz par uppar ki taraf hosakta hai jaise ke aakhri kuch hafton ke market shara'ait thay. Lekin agar keemat is level ko paar nahi kar sakti, to keemat ke rukh badalne ya dobara correct hone ka hosakta hai. Aane wale hafte ka trend mein yeh tashkeel karta hoon ke uppar ki taraf jari rehna chahega. Is haftay ki keemat mein izafa khareedne wale ka aamal hai jo ke mahine ke ibtedai trading period mein bullish safar ki jari rahi hai. Keemat ki safar ke khasoosiyat medium-term trend ki tashkeel ko bullish pattern ke saath support kar rahi hain."

NZD/USD H-1

#NZDUSD H1 New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar. Tehqeeqi tajziye ke mutabiq, H1 timeframe par currency pair ki technical analysis ke buniyadi bina par mujhe samajh mein aata hai ke is waqt bazaar mein short trade karna aqalmandi hai. Meri asal arguments ye hain:

1. Qeemat MA200 moving average ke neechay hai, jo ke bearish trend ko darshata hai.
2. Pichlay din ke doosre hissay mein, pair din ki opening qeemat ke neechay trading kar raha tha aur trading session ke ikhtitam tak bhi is ke neechay hi raha.
3. Aaj ki qeemat ke quotes ne lower Bollinger Bands ko top se bottom cross kiya hai, jo ke southern sentiment ko zor deta hai aur ye bhi zahir hota hai ke instrument ke mazeed girne ki buland mumkinat hain.
4. Trading mein main hamesha RSI indicator ke readings par khaas tawajjo deta hoon aur agar yeh overbought period (70 ke ooper) ya oversold (30 ke neechay) dikhata hai to main trade mein dakhil nahi hota. RSI ki values selling ko rokne ke khilaaf nahi hain, kyunki unki manzoor area mein hain.
5. Main take profit ko 211% Fibonacci level par set kiya hai, jo ke 0.60841 qeemat ke barabar hota hai. Phir, hisse ko breakeven par la kar main mazeed Fibonacci levels ke neechay quotes ki nazar rakhon ga jo mazeed door hain.

NZD/USD H-1

NZD/USD pair ki quotes 4-hour chart par 0.6093 support level ko toorna chuke hain aur is ke neechay mil gaye hain, jo ke is ke pehle ke upar ki taraf tajarba shuda trend ko shakast deta hai. Agar pair jald hi 0.6093 ke ooper laut nahi aata aur is ke neechay hi milta raha, to hum NZD/USD ki southward trend ko dobara shuru hone ki baat kar sakte hain jo descending channel ke andar hoti hai. Chart screenshot mein yehi manzar zahir hai. Agar pair 0.6093 ke ooper waapis aata hai to kam az kam 0.6093 aur 0.6145 ke darmiyan lambi muddat ke flat consolidation ka qayam hoga, aur zyada se zyada local upward trend 0.6145 ke ooper ban sakta hai.