EUR/USD
Euro ne Jumma ko aagayi pressurize ke saath muqabla kiya, jo ke 4 dinon tak lagataar dollar ke khilaaf 1.0770 ke qareeb reh gaya. Yeh kami aahista trading volumes ke bawajood aayi, kyun ke Good Friday ki chuttiyon ki wajah se hui. European Central Bank ke haal hi mein apni stance mein tabdeeli, jo June mein interest rate mein khatra darust karti hai, euro par bhaari asar dala. Is ke ilawa, umeed se kamzor Jerman retail sales data ne euro par neeche dabaav barha diya. Jerman retail sales data ne February mein 1.9% ka azeem giravat dikhaya, jiska izhar taqreeban kuch izafa ka tha aur pehle ke giravat ko 0.4% tak barha diya. Ye data point euro ki position ko mazeed kamzor kar diya. Market participants Federal Reserve ke afraad ke taqreerat ko bhi tawajjo se dekh rahe hain, khaaskar Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke taqreerat ko, jo din ke baad mein hone hain. Analysts umeed karte hain ke Powell ke taqreerat ahem ho, kyun ke haal hi mein doosre Fed afraad ke comments ek hawkish monetary policy stance ki taraf mael ho gaye hain. Bazaar dekhna chahta hai ke Powell is manzar ko saath lete hain ya peechle FOMC meeting mein zyada dovish tone mein rahte hain.
Pehle ki kamzori ke bawajood, euro ne Jerman data release ke baad 1.0790 ke oopar chadhai ki. Ye dikhata hai ke traders 1.0800 ke oopar ek potential breakout par nazar daal rahe hain. Agar 1.0800 ke oopar ek saabit tor par toot jaye, to March 28th ki unchi 1.0827 ko izhaar kar sakta hai, phir key technical indicators jaise ke 50-day aur 200-day moving averages 1.0834 aur is ke baad. Daily moving average ab 1.0835 par mojood hai, aur in levels ko paar karna mazeed faiday ko saamne laa sakta hai 100-day moving average tak 1.0876. Magar manzar e aam abhi bhi ghaib hai. Agar euro 1.0750 ke neeche gir jaye, to February 14th ki kamzor 1.0694 low ko izhaar kar sakta hai. Poori tor par breakdown ke baghair, mojooda levels ke upar ek dhaari breakout bhi bearish tor par tasleem kiya ja sakta hai. Prices jo 1.0820 ke neeche tike hue hain, wo potential buying opportunities ko Monday ko challenge kar sakte hain, jo ke naye selling pressure ko barha sakte hain aur euro ko wapas 1.0800, 1.0790 aur aakhir mein 1.0775 ke aas paas ke broader bearish range tak le ja sakte hain. Aanay waale din euro ke raaste ko tay karnay mein ahem honge jab bazaaron Powell ke taqreerat ka jawab denge aur ECB aur Fed ke mukhtalif rukh ko wazan karenge.
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