Re: Basic Analysis in Forex Trading
Those trading in the foreign exchange market (forex) rely on the same two basic forms of analysis that are used in the stock market: fundamental analysis and technical analysis. The uses of technical analysis in forex are much the same: the price is assumed to reflect all news, and the charts are the objects of analysis. But unlike companies, countries have no balance sheets, so how can fundamental analysis be conducted on a currency?Since fundamental analysis is about looking at the intrinsic value of an investment, its application in forex entails looking at the economic conditions that affect the valuation of a nation's currency. Here we look at some of the major fundamental factors that play a role in a currency's movement.Economic IndicatorsEconomic indicators are reports released by the government or a private organization that details a country's economic performance. Economic reports are the means by which a country's economic health is directly measured, but remember that many factors and policies will affect a nation's economic performance.These reports are released at scheduled times, providing the market with an indication of whether a nation's economy has improved or declined. These reports' effects are comparable to how earnings reports, SEC filings, and other releases may affect securities. In forex, as in the stock market, any deviation from the norm can cause large price and volume movements.You may recognize some of these economic reports, such as the unemployment numbers, which are well-publicized. Others, like housing stats, receive less coverage. However, each indicator serves a particular purpose and can be use ful.Gross Domestic Product (GDP)GDP is considered the broadest measure of a country's economy, and it represents the total market value of all goods and services produced in a country during a given year. Since the GDP figure itself is often considered a lagging indicator, most traders focus on the two reports that are issued in the months before the final GDP figures: the advance report and the preliminary report. Significant revisions between these reports can cause considerable volatility. The GDP is somewhat analogous to the gross profit margin of a publicly traded company in that they are both measures of internal growth.
Retail Sales
The retail-sales report measures the total receipts of all retail stores in a given country. This measurement is derived from a diverse sample of retail stores throughout a nation. The report is particularly useful as a timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns that is adjusted for seasonal variables. It can be used to predict the performance of more important lagging indicators and to assess the immediate direction of an economy. Revisions to advanced reports of retail sales can cause significant volatility. The retail sales report can be compared to the sales activity of a publicly-traded company.
Those trading in the foreign exchange market (forex) rely on the same two basic forms of analysis that are used in the stock market: fundamental analysis and technical analysis. The uses of technical analysis in forex are much the same: the price is assumed to reflect all news, and the charts are the objects of analysis. But unlike companies, countries have no balance sheets, so how can fundamental analysis be conducted on a currency?Since fundamental analysis is about looking at the intrinsic value of an investment, its application in forex entails looking at the economic conditions that affect the valuation of a nation's currency. Here we look at some of the major fundamental factors that play a role in a currency's movement.Economic IndicatorsEconomic indicators are reports released by the government or a private organization that details a country's economic performance. Economic reports are the means by which a country's economic health is directly measured, but remember that many factors and policies will affect a nation's economic performance.These reports are released at scheduled times, providing the market with an indication of whether a nation's economy has improved or declined. These reports' effects are comparable to how earnings reports, SEC filings, and other releases may affect securities. In forex, as in the stock market, any deviation from the norm can cause large price and volume movements.You may recognize some of these economic reports, such as the unemployment numbers, which are well-publicized. Others, like housing stats, receive less coverage. However, each indicator serves a particular purpose and can be use ful.Gross Domestic Product (GDP)GDP is considered the broadest measure of a country's economy, and it represents the total market value of all goods and services produced in a country during a given year. Since the GDP figure itself is often considered a lagging indicator, most traders focus on the two reports that are issued in the months before the final GDP figures: the advance report and the preliminary report. Significant revisions between these reports can cause considerable volatility. The GDP is somewhat analogous to the gross profit margin of a publicly traded company in that they are both measures of internal growth.
Retail Sales
The retail-sales report measures the total receipts of all retail stores in a given country. This measurement is derived from a diverse sample of retail stores throughout a nation. The report is particularly useful as a timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns that is adjusted for seasonal variables. It can be used to predict the performance of more important lagging indicators and to assess the immediate direction of an economy. Revisions to advanced reports of retail sales can cause significant volatility. The retail sales report can be compared to the sales activity of a publicly-traded company.
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