The power of CONFIDENCE in Forex Trading

Most First District businesses continue to report rising sales and revenues. Retail and tourism contacts mostly cite positive results; two-thirds of contacted manufacturers and software and IT services firms report sales increases. Home sales are up in all six states and commercial real estate market conditions vary across the region. More respondents

say they plan to increase hiring than has been the case in the last few Beige Book rounds and some mention wage increases. Contacts cite no price issues, although several manufacturers and retailers note positive effects of low energy prices. Outlooks are generally positive, as contacts expect recent results to persist.

Similar to six weeks ago, this round's retail contacts report a range of year-over-year comparable-store sales results, varying from a slight single-digit decrease to a 10 percent increase. Two contacts specifically note that their sales gains were driven by increased

customer traffic; contacts also say that the mild 2016 winter, combined with lower fuel costs, freed consumers to spend in other categories. Contacts operating in Canada or near the Canadian border note that the strong U.S. dollar is lowering sales and profits. Inventories are well-managed. Capital spending plans range from doing minimal

maintenance and IT investment to aggressive expansion plans. Most respondents this round plan to hire additional workers. One cites continuing difficulty finding quality hires

amid a "more competitive" labor market. Contacts say they currently expect same-store sales growth overall in 2016 to be in the low-to-mid single digits.

Final 2015 results for Boston hotels recently became available: new all-time highs were set for occupancy rates (81.8 percent) and average room rates ($255 per night, up 6 percent over 2014). The hotel forecast for 2016 as a whole is robust, with the average

occupancy rate down slightly and the average room rate up, to yield an expected 5 percent increase in hotel revenues. A contact notes that corporate travel activity, while still strong, may have softened a bit, but that leisure travel is holding up; however,

international visitors seem to be spending less in high-end stores, perhaps because of the strength of the U.S. dollar. Boston-area restaurants are doing much better in the first quarter than a year earlier. Boston's tourism forecast for the second quarter is strong;

besides the seasonal boost from college graduations, more corporate meetings are scheduled and leisure travel is expected to benefit from the beginning of new and/or direct flights from Europe and China.

Two-thirds of the manufacturing firms contacted this cycle report higher sales. A toy-maker says that volatility in financial markets and uncertainty surrounding the economy at the beginning of the year had no discernible effect on demand for toys.

A manufacturer of semiconductors says the market slowed in the middle of last year, leading to an overall sales decline in 2015 versus 2014, but indicates that sales picked up in mid-November

and have been up 5 percent to 8 percent year-on-year since then. He attributes some of that increase to replenishment of stocks depleted during the slowdown. Firms that reported declining sales included a frozen fish producer, a furniture manufacturer, and a

chemical firm; the latter attributed some of the weakness to developments in the Brazilian market. The furniture maker has been dealing with declining sales for several years, but says the declines are significantly worse now.

Overall, none of our contacts report significant price pressures either on the supply or demand side. Several contacts note that the benefits of lower energy prices are finally showing up in their bottom lines. All but one of our contacts report that they are hiring.