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Monetary Policy
Monetary policies kisi bhi mulk ki currency ki movement ko bohut zyada mutasir karti hai. Jab baat kisi makhsoos mulk ki currency ki fundamental analysis mein aati hai, to central banks ke dwara qayam ki gayi financial kaarwai, jo ke muassar taqat hain, trading currency pairs ko mark karne ke liye ek sab se zyada asar daalne wale factors mein se ek hai.
Aik mulk ka central bank, jo ke financial authority ke tor par kaam karta hai aur aakhir mein mulk mein qeemat ki istehkam hasil karne ki koshish karta hai, maliyat kaarwai ko istemal karta hai taake maeeshat mein moujood raqam ki hifazat, ya maeeshat mein moujood poora paisa, ko control kare. Aam tor par, har central bank koshish karta hai ke mulk mein darayein-e-inflation aur maeeshat ki tezi ke darmiyan aik hamwar ka talooq banaye, jis mulk ka woh hissa hai. Hum ye bhi keh sakte hain, ke aik central bank koshish karta hai ke mulk mein qeemat ki istehkam aur maeeshat ki tezi ki tabdili ka barabar dhang se samna kare.
Financial kaarwai poora process ko darust karta hai, jis mein central bank (monetary authority) paisa ka moujooda, paisa ki dastiyabegi aur paisa ki keemat (jo ke ujrat ki keemat ya sood ki darayein bhi kehlate hain) ko control karne ke liye istemal karta hai taake apne maqasid ko hasil kare, jo aam tor par maeeshat ki tezi aur overall maeeshati mustahkam hifazat ki taraf muwajjeh hote hain.
Hum keh sakte hain ke maliyat kaarwai paisa ki moujooda dastiyabegi aur maeeshat ke darmiyan talooq par kaam karta hai. Agar central bank paisa ka moujooda barhata hai, to zyada paisa tajawuzat ya kharch karne ke liye dastiyab hota hai, jo ke maeeshati tezi (kyunki karobar ki taraqqi aur ghar ki kharch tezi ke peechay chalne wale buniyadi urooj hain) ke liye ek pasandida asar dalta hai. Lekin, agar paisa ka moujooda bohot zyada taqatwar ho jaata hai aur buland star tak pohanch jaata hai, to ye foran buland darayein-e-inflation ko aam dour-e-maeeshat mein daakhil karta hai, jo aam tor par maeeshat ke liye nuqsan deh factor ke tor par dekha jata hai. Ye is liye hota hai, ke buland darayein-e-inflation mulk ki qaumi currency ki khareedari quwwat ko kamzor kar deti hai (ek currency ki ek maal ya khidmat ko kam se kam khareedti hai). Agar paisa ka moujooda zyada se zyada khatam ho jaata hai, to ye kam darayein-e-inflation aur maeeshat ki tezi ko rok sakta hai.
Ek munasib inflation darayein aur sehat mand maeeshati tezi ke darmiyan balance dhundhne ke liye, central banks do qisam ki maliyat kaarwai qaim karti hain - accommodation aur restrictive.
Monetary Policy Key Points
Maliyat kaarwai maeeshati fluctuations ko control karna aur qeemat ki istehkam hasil karna mein ek ahem kirdar ada karta hai. Yehaan maliyat kaarwai se mutaliq kuch ahem nukta chand hain:
- Maqsad: finance kaarwai ka maqsad financial variables jaise ke inflation aur bayrozgari ko regulate karne ke liye paisa ka moujooda aur iska izafat dar kaarwai karke paisa ka moujooda aur iska izafat dar kaarwai karke maeeshati variables ka barabar rakhna hai.
- Assets: Markazi banken maliyat kaarwai ko lagoo karne ke liye imfa ki daro dekha ko adjust karna, hukumat ki securities kharidna ya bechna aur reserve zarooriyat ko tabdeel karna jaise mukhtalif aalaat ka istemal karti hain.
- Expansionary Policy: Ye karwai paisa ka moujooda barhaane ka maqsad rakhti hai jaise ke imfa ki daro ko kam karke, hukumat ki securities ko kharidte hue aur reserve zarooriyat ko kam karke. Yeh maeeshati tezi ko barhata hai lekin ye inflation ka sabab ban sakta hai.
- Contractionary Policy: Paisa ka moujooda kam karne ke liye tayyar ki gayi ye karwai imfa ki daro ko barhaane, hukumat ki bonds ko bechna aur inflation ke leves ko control karne ke liye reserve zarooriyat ko barhaana shamil hai.
- Inflation Targeting: Maliyat kaarwaiyon ko inflation ke leves ko nishana banana hota hai, kam inflation ko maeeshat ke liye sehatmand samjha jaata hai. Takheerati karwaiyan uncha inflation ko hal karne ke liye istemal hoti hain
- Unemployment Ka Intizam: Aik waasi maliyat kaarwai karobar ki sargarmion ko barhakar paisa ka moujooda barha kar bayrozgari ko kam kar sakti hai
- Exchange Rates: Markazi banken paisa ka moujooda tabdeel karke exchange rates ko regulate kar sakti hain. Paisa ka moujooda barhane se mulk ke gharelo currency ko foreign currencies ke mutabiq sasta kar sakta hai
- Labor Changes: Markazi banken imfa ki daro ko short-term qarza dene ke liye bankon ko lagaye gaye discount rate ko adjust karke ujrat daro ko asar daalte hain. Imfa daro mein tabdeel hukoomat se guzartay hain aur imfa ka moujooda asar daalte hain
- Reserve Zarooriyat: Markazi banken commercial bankon ke liye minimum reserve zarooriyat tay karti hain. Ye zarooriyat ko adjust karna qarza dene ke liye moujooda paisa aur maeeshati moujooda ko asar daalta hai
- Open Market Operations: Markazi banken maeeshati karwaiyon aur ujrat daro ko asar daalne ke liye open market operations mein hukumat ki securities ko kharidti ya bechti hain
- Fiscal vs. Monetary Policy: Wasiyat kaarwai fiscal policy tax aur hukumat ki kharchon ki faislay shamil hoti hai, jabke maliyat kaarwai central bankon ke zariye paisa ka moujooda tabdeel karte hain
- Dual Mandate: America mein, Federal Reserve zyada se zyada rozgaar hasil karne aur inflation ko check karne ke liye maliyat kaarwai karke maqsad rakhti hai
- Inflation Ka Control: Takheerati maliyat kaarwai inflation ko kam karne ke liye istemal hoti hai paisa ki kharjari mein kami ko khatam karke, jabke waasi karwaiyan inflationary pressure ko paida kar sakti hain
- Emergency Actions: Markazi banken emergency halaat mein amal kar sakti hain, jaise ke liquidity faraham karna, maliyat kaarwai ko aasaan karna aur credit flow ko barqarar rakhna taa ke markets ko mustaqil banaye rakha ja sake
- Prudential Tools: Mali stability ko barhane ke liye, markazi banken mali stability ko barhane ke liye makroprudential tools ka istemal karti hain jo ke financial system mein buffers banate hain aur vulnerabilities ko control karte hain
- Independence: Markazi banken mustaqil tor par operation karti hain takay systemic risks ko tajziya kiya ja sake aur makroprudential policies ko political interference ke baghair lagoo kiya ja sake
- Tightening Policies: Barhne wale inflation ke shikayat ka jawab denay ke liye, markazi banken recently ujrat daro ko barha kar maliyat kaarwai ko mazboot kiya gaya hai
- Fiscal Policy Ke Saath Coordination: Maliyat aur fiscal policies ke darmiyan effective coordination maeeshati mustaqil aur taraqqi ke liye zaroori hai
- Financial Impacts: Takheerati karwaiyan slowdowns ke doran maeeshati sargarmion ko barhati hain, jabke ujrat darwaiyan ek garam economy ko thanda karne ka maqsad rakhti hain
- Long Time period Result: Jabke maliyat kaarwaiyan short term mein kaarguzar ho sakti hain, agar unko ehtiyaat se na dekha jaye to ye lambe muddat mein negative asar daal sakti hain.
Accommodative Monetary Policy
Jab mali authority ek accommodative (expansive) monetary policy ka rasta ikhtiyar karta hai, to iska matlab hai ke woh mulk mein paisa ka moujooda barhaata hai. Jaise hum pehle bhi dekh chuke hain, ye karwai zyada karobar ki taraqqi, zyada sarfeen ke kharch aur is tarah, sastay ujrat (cheaper borrowing) ke zariye, lower interest rates ke zariye, muamooli maeeshati tezi ko barhata hai.
Lekin, aise aik policy ke dusre asar bhi hote hain. Aik accommodative policy ko amal mein daal kar, central bank haqiqi ujrat darayein ko kum kar deta hai. (Hum agli article mein is mawad par thori aur guftagu karenge). Haqiqi ujrat darayein ko kum karne ke saath, mulk mein mali aur inaami assest kam atraktiv ban jaate hain, unki kam haqiqi wapas ka dard (wapas ki dard) ke sabab se. Foreign investors mulk ke domestic bonds, assests, stocks aur doosri assest mein apni hisse ki kamai badhaane lagte hain. Is natije mein, mulk ki maliyat par bohot bura asar padta hai (foreign investors mulk ki kam assest ki hifazat karte hain). Isi waqt, ghar ke investors bhi apne mulk mein invest karne ke liye zyada tayyar ho jaate hain. Ghar ke karobari fa'al (foreigners aur ghar ke investors dono ke zariye badhaayi gayi) mein izafa mulk ki qaumi currency ke liye zyada demand ka bais banata hai. Tehqeeqat ke mutabiq, mulk ki currency ke exchange rate ko barhane ki taraf rukh hoti hai.
Aik aur asar e aik accommodative monetary policy ka hai zyada darayein-e-inflation ka imkaan. Jaise hum pehle bhi zikar kiya hai, akhiri ko barhne ki wajah se, jisey maeeshat mein zyada capital ki raqam hoti hai, ye mulk ki qaumi currency ki khareedari quwwat ko kamzor kar deti hai (currency kam qeemat haasil karti hai).
To chaliye, hum isko ikhtisar mein laye, jab central bank aik policy ko implement karta hai, jo ke accommodative hoti hai, to ye mulk ki qaumi currency ki qeemat par manfi asar daalne ki taraf muwajjeh hoti hai.
Restrictive Monetary Policy
Jab mali authority aik restrictive (contractionary) monetary policy ka rasta ikhtiyar karta hai, to iska matlab hai ke woh mulk mein paisa ka moujooda kam karta hai.
Agar paisa ka moujooda bohot zyada hai aur central bank isay kam karna chahta hai, to bank ujrat darayein ko buland karega. Aisi koi harkat karobar ki ijaazat ko mehdood kar deti hai, kyun ke zyada ujrat darayein uthaane ke barabar hote hain ujrat ki zyada qeemat. Agar economy mein ujrat mehdood ho, to yeh karobar ki sargarmi aur ghar ki sarf kum ho jaayegi, jo ke maal-o-asbaab ki talaash par asar daalega. In maeeshati mozoat kam fa'al hote hain, to maeeshati tezi kam ho jaati hai. Doosri taraf, ujrat buland hone aur maang kam hone se inflationary dabaao kum ho jaata hai.
Lekin, aise aik policy ke dusre asar bhi hote hain. Aik restrictive policy ko amal mein daal kar, central bank haqiqi ujrat darayein ko barhaata hai. In ujrat darayein ko barhane ke saath, mulk mein mali aur inaami assest zyada atraktiv ban jaate hain, unki zyada haqiqi wapas ka dard ke sabab se. Foreign investors mulk ke domestic bonds, assests, stocks etc mein apni hisse ki kamai badhaate hain. Is natije mein, mulk ki maliyat par bohot achha asar padta hai (foreign investors mulk ki ziada assest ki hifazat karte hain). Isi waqt, ghar ke investors bhi apne mulk mein invest karne ke liye zyada tayyar ho jaate hain. Ghar ke karobari fa'al (foreigners aur ghar ke investors dono ke zariye badhaayi gayi) mein izafa mulk ki qaumi currency ke liye zyada demand ka bais banata hai. Tehqeeqat ke mutabiq, mulk ki currency ke exchange rate ko barhane ki taraf rukh hoti hai.
Chaliye, hum isko ikhtisar mein laye, jab central bank aik policy ko implement karta hai, jo ke restrictive hoti hai, to ye mulk ki qaumi currency ki qeemat par musbat asar daalne ki taraf muwajjeh hoti hai.
How Central Bank Decision Impacts on Monetary Policy
Har central bank ke paas maeeshati tezi, maeeshati tezi (GDP) aur doosre mukhtalif macroeconomic indicators ke breakeven numbers hote hain, jo ke banks ke apne methodology ke mutabiq tayaar kiye jaate hain. Is ke ilawa, central banks inhein preferential values ke saath muqabla karte hain. Agar in figures mein se kuch ek breakeven number tak pohanch jaate hain ya aik hi rukh mein tabdeeli aane lagti hai, jo maeeshat mein kisi khaas rukh ki alamat hai, to ye central bank ke liye aik ishaara hai, ke iski maliyat kaarwaiyon ko apne hisaab se mawafiq karna chahiye.
Taraqqi yafta mulk ke central banks ke paas aam tor par ek manzoor level ya aik range hoti hai, jiska inflation rate kabhi bhi nahi hona chahiye. Maslan, Federal Reserve Bank aur European Central Bank ne saalana 2% ki inflation rate ka nishana rakha hai. Ye nishana ek sehat mand inflation rate ke tor par tasleem kiya jaata hai, jo ke qeemat ki istehkam aur aik darust maeeshati tezi par jawab deta hai. Agar kisi waqia ki wajah se inflation rate is nishana ke aas paas hilta hai, to central bank aksar isay ek statement mein wazahat karta hai.
Agar inflation rate nishana se behtareen rehta hai, to ye dabaavat ko dabaane ki nishani hai aur central bank be shak apne accommodative monetary policy ko barqarar rakhega, aur vice versa.
Har central bank aam tor par apni monetary policy ko bohot dheere dheere, chhoti kadam par badalta hai. Ye na sirf mustaqil hone ki wajah se zaroori hai, balki ye bhi isliye zaroori hai ke bank ko ye dekhna hai ke ye adjustment poori maeeshat par kis had tak asar daalti hai. Benchmark interest rate ki tabdiliyon ka maamooli rafaaqat 0.25%-0.50% hota hai, jabke izafay ya kamiyon ke daure 1 se 3 saal tak chal sakte hain. Neeche ka izafay aksar tezi se hota hai, qadam zyada bade hote hain - 0.25% se 1%. Lekin, 0.50%-1% ke darmiyan izafay ya kamiyon ke daure aam tor par maeeshati masail ke doran hotay hain, jaise ke 2008 ke ghadar mein.
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