Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!
Inflation
Inflation (Mehangai) se har dawar mein har aik banda bohut ziada pareshan rehta hai, aur ye aaj kal media mein sab se zyada discuss hone wale assets mein se ek hai. Yeh kyun? Kyunki hamari aamdani, humare udhaar par milne wala sood, aur mulk ki financial halat tamam is par mabni hai ke kya maeeshat taraqqi kar rahi hai aur kya Inflation mein izafah ho raha hai. Lekin yeh talluq hamesha wazeh nahi hota, aur sabhi mali malumat ka istemal hamare liye faidaymand nahi hota.
Inflation waqt ke sath sath prices mein izafah aur maal ke paisay ki purchasing power mein kami hai. Inflation ka dar mulk se mulk aur currency se currency mukhtalif hota hai.
Misal ke tor par, dollar ne pichle 10 saalon mein sirf 22.96% kamzor ho kar reh gaya hai. Yani, 2011 mein 1 dollar ab early 2022 mein 1.25 dollar ke barabar hai. Aam taur par, dollar ki mehangai ka dar 2.05% saalana hota hai, lekin yeh har saal alag hota hai. Maslan, 2011 mein mehangai 3.16% thi, aur January 2022 mein yeh 7.5% saalana izafah hua.
Yeh bhi ho sakta hai ke prices kam ho rahe hain, lekin paisay ki purchasing power mein izafah ho raha ho. Is surat mein, hum deflation ke bare mein baat karte hain. Ye woh hai jo Japanese maeeshat ne haal hi mein face kiya hai. Agar hum 2011 se dekhein to Japan ki average annual inflation 0.56% rahi hai, lekin kuch saalon mein negative bhi rahi hai. 2011 mein -0.27% thi aur 2021 mein -0.02%.
Inflation ki zarurat hai maeeshati taraqqi ke liye, lekin tab jab keematien majbuti se barhein aur tezi se nahi. Is tarah, jab log mehangai ko aam taur par ek nuksan samajhte hain, to experts mein ittefaq hai ke maqool price growth maeeshati taraqqi ke liye zaroori hai. Lekin yeh masla ban jata hai jab mehangai ko control se bahar ho jata hai aur tezi se barh jata hai, jaise ke duniya mein ab ho raha hai.
Inflation Types
Mehangai ko alag alag qisamoon mein taqseem kiya ja sakta hai:
- Deflation: Ye basically negative inflation hai, yaani ke prices nahi barh rahe, balki gir rahe hain. Deflation economy ko slow karti hai. Log chezen khareedna band kar dete hain ummid karte hue ke wo sasti ho jayengi, aur companies is wajah se production bhi band kar deti hain.
- Low Inflation: Aisi mehangai jo maeeshat ke liye behtar hai aur jise consumers aur entrepreneurs ke liye aasani se tolerate kiya ja sakta hai.
- Moderate Inflation: 6 se 10% saalana izafah wali mehangai. Ye tab takarar paida kar sakti hai jab prices ne dozakhi raftar se barhne lagti hain aur instability peda hoti hai.
- Hyperinflation: Isme prices hazaron ya phir laakhon percent barh jaate hain, kuch khatarnak halat mein log paisay istemal karna chor dete hain aur barter system mein shift ho jata hai.
Hyperinflation ke haalat mein 2020 mein Venezuela mein mehangai 2355% thi aur Zimbabwe mein 557.2%. Zimbabwe ke liye, yeh masla chronic hai; 2000 mein labor ka bada nikalna mulk ke financial system ka collapse le kar aaya tha.
Inflation ki Calculation
United States mein, mehangai ka paimaish mukhtalif price indexes, jese ke Consumer Price Index (CPI) aur Producer Price Index (PPI), se ki jati hai. Ye indices ke calculation tareeqay mukhtalif hote hain, jo ke ye batane mein madad karte hain ke kis shobe mein price pressures mojood hain.
Federal Reserve (Fed) United States mein Inflation ke mustaqil izafah ko control karne ka zimmedar hai. Regulator ne taay kiya hai ke 2% saalana mehangai ka dar purchasing power ko zyada kam karne bina price pressure ko maintain karne ka behtareen tareeqa hai.
Inflation k Asabab
Macroeconomics mein demand inflation aur supply inflation mein farq kiya jata hai.
Demand-Pull Mehangai: Jab supply demand ko pura nahi kar sakti. Yeh is waqt hoti hai jab logon ke paas free paisay hote hain lekin companies demand ko pura nahi kar sakti hain, aur is wajah se prices barh jaati hain. Jese ke koi company limited edition gadgets launch kare. Woh gadget popular ho jata hai lekin sab ke liye nahi hota, aur last models higher prices par sold out ho jate hain.
Iska asal sabab hai:
- Mass lending: Jab banks savings se nahi balki unsecured currency se loan dete hain. Is currency ki qeemat gold ya kisi aur qeemti cheez se support nahi hoti, is wajah se isay token money kehte hain. Lekin isay goods khareedne ke liye istemal kiya ja sakta hai, jo ke mehangai ko tezi se barha sakti hai.
- Additional money issuance: Jab government spending barh jata hai, aur commodity turnover ka khayal nahi rakha jata, to ziada paisay issue ho jate hain. Economists ka kehna hai ke paisay ki miqdar maal ki growth ke sath hi barhni chahiye. Agar zyada paisay issue ho rahe hain to residents ko surplus milta hai.
- Supply Inflation: Production costs mein izafah hone se hoti hai. Jab companies ko maal banane aur services provide karne ke liye zyada paisay kharch karne padte hain, to wo apni costs ko customers par daal deti hain.
Iska asar hota hai:
- World market prices mein izafah: Agar koi company imported raw materials ya products istemal karti hai, to uski costs badh jaati hain.
- Kuch companies ka monopoly hawale se prices aur production costs set karne ka haq: Agar unka ek tareeqa monopolistic hai to wo apne products aur services ko zyada mehengi bech sakte hain.
- Wages mein izafah: Agar kisi company ko apne employees ya unki unions ki demand ke chalte wages barhani padti hai aur baqi costs waisi hi rehti hain.
- Taxes, duties, aur excise taxes mein izafah: Agar paisay ki miqdar stable rehti hai to government apne revenue ko barqarar rakhne ke liye in cheezon mein izafah kar sakti hai.
Inflation Control karne k Tricks
Inflation ko control karne ke liye tareeqay seedhe aur gair-seedhe taur par taqseem kiye ja sakte hain. Seedhe tareeqay se mehangai ko control karne wale asal izafah ke zimme se qawi control hota hai. Ye tareeqay mein shamil hain:
- Price aur ujraton ki state regulation
- Foreign economic activity aur exchange rates ki regulation
- Central bank ke zariye direct withdrawal of money supply
Gair-seedhe tareeqay indirect taur par money supply ko regulate karne ke liye available financial instruments ke zariye maddad karte hain. Ismein shaamil hain:
- Central bank ki key rate (credit ki qeemat)
- Commercial banks ki required reserves
- Government debt obligations
Ye tricks mehangai ko kam karne mein madad karti hain, lekin inka dosra asar kuch doosre macroeconomic parameters par bhi pad sakta hai. Economists ne ek "magic quadrilateral" ka concept diya hai jo sustainable economic growth, low inflation, high employment, aur balanced balance of payments ko shamil karta hai. Lekin sab se behtareen values ko achieve karna mushkil hota hai.
Kuch experts ka kehna hai ke government ki policy jo structural economic change ki taraf mabni hai aur jo government se mustaghni market-based infrastructure banati hai, wo inflation ke khilaf larna mein maddad karti hai. Unka kehna hai ke jab tak output grow ho raha hai aur market saturation door hai, tak prices stable rehti hain.
Modern Anti-Inflationary Policy
United States ki tareekh mein interest rates mein barhna aur kam hona ka silsila hai. Iska sab se ahem hissa investors ke liye tab hota hai jab rates ko barhaya jata hai, kyun ke tareekhi tor par rates ko barhaya jata hai jab maeeshat ko sehatmand rakha jana chahta hai. Interest rates barhane ka jawab inflation ka target "normal" level se zyada izafah hony par hota hai.
Interest rates ko barhane se deposit rates mein izafah hota hai aur lending rates mein bhi izafah hota hai. Deposit rates barhne ke chalte aam logon ko aur normal logon ko high-risk assets se safe deposits mein paise shift karne par majboor karta hai, kyunki yeh ab zyada attractive returns dete hain.
Rates barhne ki wajah se banks ko expensive money milta hai (depositors ko zyada compensation dene ke liye), is wajah se credit ka rate bhi barh jata hai. Turn, lending kam ho jati hai, kyunki borrowers ko high interest rates par paise lena mushkil ho jata hai.
Economic cycle ko credit issuance mein kami hone ke zariye decelerate hona padta hai, jo ke maeeshati jaraim ko bhi decelerate kar deta hai.
Investors Ko Interest Rates Se Dar Kyun Lagta Hai
Interest rates barhne ka asar U.S. bond yields par bhi hota hai. Jab deposit rate barh jata hai, investors ko U.S. government debt khareedne ke liye razi karne ke liye government ko bhi zyada rate dena padta hai.
Underlying asset valuation mein, risk-free discount factor 10-year Treasuries ki yield hoti hai. Jab risk-free yields barhte hain, to risky assets mein investment ke liye required return bhi barh jata hai, is wajah se investors inko downvalue karte hain. Ye sabhi stocks ke liye lagu hota hai, lekin sab se zyada fast-growth techs aur biotechs ki companies ke liye hota hai jo abhi tak EBITDA ya FCF earn nahi kar rahi hoti, jisme company ki long-term potential par betting hoti hai.
Abhi market ko high price pe evaluate kiya gaya hai. S&P 500 Index ka forward P/E level 17 ke upar chala gaya hai, jabke aam taur par is figure us level ke neeche rehta hai. Yeh bhi noteworthy hai ke index ne dot-com crisis ke dauran ek martaba 25 tak pohancha tha.
Good & Bad Inflation
Zyadatar economists ittefaq rakhte hain ke thodi mehangai ka dar faydemand hota hai, ye businesses aur individuals ko zyada kharch, zyada invest, ya phir zyada bachat karne par majboor karta hai.
Lekin usi waqt, zyada mehangai ka dar economic agents ki purchasing power mein kami ka bhi asar karta hai, aur is wajah se maeeshati taraqqi mein bhi deceleration hoti hai. Sare milke, jab prices zyada barh jaati hain, to income ka hissa jo bachta hai, woh savings mein jata hai. Investments bhi kam ho jati hain.
Aur bura to ye hai ke final consumers aur companies aksar mehangai ka wait karte hain, jabki maeeshat pehle se hi recover ho chuki hoti hai. Is effect ko hum "inflationary expectation" kehte hain.
High Inflation Ke Doran Invest Kaise Karein
Jab bhi Inflation hote hue bhi moderate hai aur dikhayi deti hai ke kai saal tak aage badh sakti hai, to yeh bahut nuksan deh ho sakta hai. Isliye investors chahte hain ki unke assets kam se kam itna return dein jitna ke mehangai ka izafah ho. Dusre alfaz mein, unka real rate of return positive hona chahiye.
National currency ki devaluation ke khilaf bachne ke liye, yeh recommended hai ke portfolio ka kam se kam 50% hard currencies jese ke dollars, euros, yen, aur Swiss francs mein ho. Is surat mein, jaise bhi currency pair move ho, capital apni purchasing power ko retain karega.
Progressive mehangai ke shor mein, kuch asset types khud ko achhi tarah se show kar sakte hain:
- Physical Assets: Jese ki real estate, automobiles, aur luxury goods. For example, United States mein, used car prices ne ek saal mein 25 percent izafah kiya hai, jo ke overall mehangai ko aur bhi badha raha hai. Koi khaas real estate property mehangai se zyada tezi se appreciate ho sakti hai ya phir dheere dheere badhegi, ye property ke type, location, aur doosre factors par depend karta hai. Rent ya rental fees hamesha mehangai ke proportion mein nahi badhte.
- Variable Coupon Bonds: United States mein inhein TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) kehte hain. Agar mehangai barhti hai, to is tarah ke bonds ki coupon payments bhi badh jayengi, lekin debt securities ki price girne ki jagah nahi hogi.
- Commodities: Jese ke oil, gas, aluminum, aur wheat. Aap inme commodities aur agricultural companies ke stocks ke zariye invest kar sakte hain.
- Gold: Mehngai ke sath sath gold ki qeemat bhi barh sakti hai aur stock market girne par bhi. Lekin yeh guarantee nahi hai. Ye volatile bhi hota hai aur kisi bhi passive income ko generate nahi karta.
Gold ki achhi baat yeh hai ke iska stocks aur bonds ke sath weak correlation hota hai, matlab ke ye ek acha diversifier hota hai. Isko investment portfolio mein shaamil karne se aksar portfolio ki volatility kam hoti hai aur risk/reward ratio behtar hota hai. - Safe-Haven Sectors Ke Companies Ke Shares: Telecoms, utilities, manufacturers, aur basic necessities jese food, hygiene products, aur medicines ke sellers ke companies. In companies ke products ke prices overall mehangai ke sath badh sakte hain.
Lekin utility companies ke sath ishterak karni padti hai: in companies ke paas aksar bade debts hote hain aur unki business margins weak hoti hain. Agar rates badh jaate hain to unki debt service costs bhi badh jaati hain. Financial sector bhi higher rates se faida utha sakta hai, kyun ke jo loans issue hote hain, unki interest rate bhi zyada hoti hai.
Real estate sector ke liye, evidence iski protective nature ki inflation ke against contradictory hai, kam az kam United States mein. NAREIT ka kehna hai ke REIT funds ki dividend growth ne last 20 years mein U.S. ke consumer price growth se zyada rehti hai, jabke Vanguard ne calculate kiya hai ke last 50 years mein REITs ne gold, commodities, aur inflation-linked bonds se kam perform kiya hai.
Inflation Se Khauf Nahi Hona Chahiye
Lag sakta hai ke inflation thode se thode humare savings ko khatak raha hai, lekin agar is par gahraai se jaye to sab kuch itna bura nahi hai.
Inflation bilkul normal hai. Ye hamesha se raha hai aur hamesha rahega. Un countries mein jahan par inflation negative ho jati hai, wahan ki authorities ko iski kami mehsoos hoti hai aur wo isko wapas lana ke liye kai tadabeer karte hain. For example, December 2014 mein, Swiss National Bank (SNB) ne apne deposits par negative interest rate (0.25%) introduce ki thi. Usne apne faislay ko damit kiya ke yeh measure currency ki aur zyada mazbooti se rok lega, sath hi sath Swiss economy mein investment ko barhane ka hosla dega.
Yeh zaroori hai ke 10% ki inflation buri hai, lekin 0% bhi maeeshat ke liye nuksan deh hai. Iska matlab hai ke mulk tarraqqi nahi kar raha. Normal inflation rate 2-4% per year hai.
Aakhir mein, log bhi ekdam se nahi rukte: hum tarraqqi kar rahe hain, tajurbah kar rahe hain, naye technologies create kar rahe hain, aur production cost ko kam kar rahe hain. Tesla ne electric cars ki production start ki hai, aur Mark Zuckerberg apne project "Smart Home" ko develop kar rahe hain. Hum sab kuch kar sakte hain investment risks ko diversify kar ke, additional value create kar ke, aur progress mein apna hissa dal ke.
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