The essential feature of a successful forex trader is a vision for a market situation. However, even savvy traders are not always good at predicting market developments. A variety of circumstances may occur out of nowhere, sending shock waves across the market and catching traders completely off-guard. Such force majeure events are impossible to foresee. The beauty is that force majeure circumstances offer market participants trading opportunities. So, traders should grasp this concept in order to avoid losses and, on the contrary, to earn under such circumstances. A fresh and vivid example is the coronavirus pandemic that entailed lockdown worldwide. Originally, no one could have predicted such a catastrophe on a global scale. Besides, not a single analyst gave an accurate forecast of the fundamental fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, it played havoc with both advanced and emerging economies on all continents.
Now let’s try to categorize force majeure events according to their common features. Experts conducted profound research into unexpected incidents which occurred over the last 20 years. According to the information obtained, economists identified major groups of force majeure circumstances that produce a powerful effect on market sentiment:
terrorist attacks
natural catastrophes (storms, tsunamis, earthquakes, floods, etc.)
technologic crashes
economic crises
armed conflicts
death or resignation of key political or economic figures
These circumstances can turn the market upside down. Force majeure events can trigger brief and sharp price swings or, on the contrary, give birth to long-term trends. Now let’s look at some particular cases. As a rule, political or economic events make a major impact on all markets. However, stock and currency markets are especially sensitive to them. For instance, power transmission to another political leader or a replacement of a key economic figure causes gyrations of forex quotes. Besides, armed conflicts also can set the forex market astir. Notably, a national currency of the hostile side usually rises in value.
Industrial disasters such as an oil spill or an accident at a nuclear power plant influence greatly exchange rates of national currencies. Natural disasters sometimes can be market-moving events, though not always. Importantly, please be aware that a catastrophe does not necessarily inflict harm to the economic health of that country where it has taken place. For example, various natural disasters frequently shake the US economy. The country has to withstand bushfires, floods, tornados, etc. Nevertheless, the US dollar is immune to such challenges. Another thing is when a natural disaster deals a blow to strategically important deposits of commodities. In the US, oilfields matter a lot to the national economy. As a result, fundamental analysis is likely to reveal appreciation of that commodity (namely petroleum prices in the above example), a wave of sell-off of the US dollar, and gyrations in other currency pairs.
The bottom line is that commodity markets are extremely sensitive to natural disasters. A sudden river flood or a hurricane is able to instantly propel a rally of a commodity price. In this context, if you want to reckon prospects of the wheat market, make sure you find out about the climate of the region where particular cereals are grown.
Forex beginners may find the following information useful. The research on force majeure events that have occurred over the last 20 years proves that crude oil is the trading instrument which is most resilient to exterior calamities. Oil prices are prone to erratic moves only in 13% cases of force majeure events. In most cases, abnormal price moves are caused by terrorist attacks. The gold market and the forex market are ranked second in terms of immunity to force majeure circumstances. These markets become astir due to force majeure events in 38% cases. The third rank is given to stock indices which could be labeled as vulnerable to such events. Every other force majeure event causes a roller coaster in stock markets.
It goes without saying that even the most experienced market players are hardly able to shield their assets from unforeseen risks. Force majeure events exert such a powerful effect that hurts all market participants one way or another. Therefore, it is vitally important for any trader to exercise one’s own judgement on such events and their influence on the market.
The following ideas could help you with impartial judgement.
The impact of a force majeure event on market quotes goes through two stages. The first one is a market response and the second one is a counter-reaction or a market revival. The first stage lasts for 4-5 days on average, whereas the second stage could go on for 3-4 weeks. In most cases, once the final stage is over, an asset price recovers by 80%.
Only savvy traders are capable of earning under force majeure circumstances as they dare to make bets being aware of how to manage risks. Novice traders are not recommended to open bets at their peril under such circumstances. The best solution for beginners is to close all trades as soon as possible and exit the market for a while to protect their capital.
If you are still resolute to open a trade despite a force majeure event, please make sure that you will be able to close your positions instantly. Otherwise, it would be better to stay away from the market. Besides, don’t be afraid of closing a trade at a loss. If you cannot stop at the right time, you run the risk of blowing your account in an extremely volatile market.
An emotional response from the market triggered by force majeure news can develop in two ways. The first scenario is that a trader can enter the market with an intraday trading strategy. The second scenario is to wait until the market slumps even lower and buy an asset at an extremely low quote, if this suits a trader’s plan.
To minimize losses from force majeure circumstances, traders should originally diversify their investment portfolios, distributing their capital among various assets. Experts say that diversification brings about minor or even zero losses in case of calamities.
If a force majeure event has affected the currency market, it would be better to opt for the safe-haven US dollar rather than riskier currencies. As a rule, most currencies weaken against the US dollar so that you will be able to protect your savings.
Last but not least, here is another simple yet efficient tip. Fundamental analysts should always keep close tabs on the news about a force majeure event occurred. Such awareness allows an analyst to evaluate the fallout from a particular force majeure event and realize how long the market is going to trade following a trend induced by that event. If a force majeure circumstance produces a short-lived effect, the market is likely to get back on track promptly. If a force majeure event lasts for long, the market will respond accordingly.
Now let’s try to categorize force majeure events according to their common features. Experts conducted profound research into unexpected incidents which occurred over the last 20 years. According to the information obtained, economists identified major groups of force majeure circumstances that produce a powerful effect on market sentiment:
terrorist attacks
natural catastrophes (storms, tsunamis, earthquakes, floods, etc.)
technologic crashes
economic crises
armed conflicts
death or resignation of key political or economic figures
These circumstances can turn the market upside down. Force majeure events can trigger brief and sharp price swings or, on the contrary, give birth to long-term trends. Now let’s look at some particular cases. As a rule, political or economic events make a major impact on all markets. However, stock and currency markets are especially sensitive to them. For instance, power transmission to another political leader or a replacement of a key economic figure causes gyrations of forex quotes. Besides, armed conflicts also can set the forex market astir. Notably, a national currency of the hostile side usually rises in value.
Industrial disasters such as an oil spill or an accident at a nuclear power plant influence greatly exchange rates of national currencies. Natural disasters sometimes can be market-moving events, though not always. Importantly, please be aware that a catastrophe does not necessarily inflict harm to the economic health of that country where it has taken place. For example, various natural disasters frequently shake the US economy. The country has to withstand bushfires, floods, tornados, etc. Nevertheless, the US dollar is immune to such challenges. Another thing is when a natural disaster deals a blow to strategically important deposits of commodities. In the US, oilfields matter a lot to the national economy. As a result, fundamental analysis is likely to reveal appreciation of that commodity (namely petroleum prices in the above example), a wave of sell-off of the US dollar, and gyrations in other currency pairs.
The bottom line is that commodity markets are extremely sensitive to natural disasters. A sudden river flood or a hurricane is able to instantly propel a rally of a commodity price. In this context, if you want to reckon prospects of the wheat market, make sure you find out about the climate of the region where particular cereals are grown.
Forex beginners may find the following information useful. The research on force majeure events that have occurred over the last 20 years proves that crude oil is the trading instrument which is most resilient to exterior calamities. Oil prices are prone to erratic moves only in 13% cases of force majeure events. In most cases, abnormal price moves are caused by terrorist attacks. The gold market and the forex market are ranked second in terms of immunity to force majeure circumstances. These markets become astir due to force majeure events in 38% cases. The third rank is given to stock indices which could be labeled as vulnerable to such events. Every other force majeure event causes a roller coaster in stock markets.
It goes without saying that even the most experienced market players are hardly able to shield their assets from unforeseen risks. Force majeure events exert such a powerful effect that hurts all market participants one way or another. Therefore, it is vitally important for any trader to exercise one’s own judgement on such events and their influence on the market.
The following ideas could help you with impartial judgement.
The impact of a force majeure event on market quotes goes through two stages. The first one is a market response and the second one is a counter-reaction or a market revival. The first stage lasts for 4-5 days on average, whereas the second stage could go on for 3-4 weeks. In most cases, once the final stage is over, an asset price recovers by 80%.
Only savvy traders are capable of earning under force majeure circumstances as they dare to make bets being aware of how to manage risks. Novice traders are not recommended to open bets at their peril under such circumstances. The best solution for beginners is to close all trades as soon as possible and exit the market for a while to protect their capital.
If you are still resolute to open a trade despite a force majeure event, please make sure that you will be able to close your positions instantly. Otherwise, it would be better to stay away from the market. Besides, don’t be afraid of closing a trade at a loss. If you cannot stop at the right time, you run the risk of blowing your account in an extremely volatile market.
An emotional response from the market triggered by force majeure news can develop in two ways. The first scenario is that a trader can enter the market with an intraday trading strategy. The second scenario is to wait until the market slumps even lower and buy an asset at an extremely low quote, if this suits a trader’s plan.
To minimize losses from force majeure circumstances, traders should originally diversify their investment portfolios, distributing their capital among various assets. Experts say that diversification brings about minor or even zero losses in case of calamities.
If a force majeure event has affected the currency market, it would be better to opt for the safe-haven US dollar rather than riskier currencies. As a rule, most currencies weaken against the US dollar so that you will be able to protect your savings.
Last but not least, here is another simple yet efficient tip. Fundamental analysts should always keep close tabs on the news about a force majeure event occurred. Such awareness allows an analyst to evaluate the fallout from a particular force majeure event and realize how long the market is going to trade following a trend induced by that event. If a force majeure circumstance produces a short-lived effect, the market is likely to get back on track promptly. If a force majeure event lasts for long, the market will respond accordingly.
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