Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!
Forex Market Player
Forex market, dunia ki sab se badi aur ziada liquid financial market hai, jahaan har roz trillion dollar ki trading hoti hai. Is market mein alag alag qisam ke participants shamil hote hain, jinhe hum "market players" kehte hain. Yeh players apni apni motives aur strategies ke saath market mein badalte hain, aur unki collective actions se supply aur demand mein phir o badal hota hai, jo ultimately currency ki qimaat ko taqyeen karta hai. Is article mein, hum aapko Forex market ke muhim market players ke baare mein tafseel se batayenge.
Market ke alag alag players hain, jo derivative instruments jaise futures ya options ka istemal karke currency market mein trade karte hain. Derivative contracts ko private aur institutional players kharidte hain jinki mukhtalif zarooriyaat hoti hain, is liye market ke participants ko woh maqsad se define kiya jata hai jis liye unhone derivatives mein trade karna chuna hai. Derivative market mein, (jo currency pairs par futures aur options trade karte hain), ahem players hain: hedgers, speculators aur arbitrageurs.
Hedgers
Hum keh sakte hain ke "hedging" bas risk ki kami hai, ek position ko band karke taake wo market ki mojooda surat-e-hal se aane wale risky factors/influences se mehfooz rahe. Aise investor ko jo ke risk ki level ko kam karna chahta hai, aam tor par hedger kaha jata hai. Ek hedger aksar apni position ka exposure price volatility se kam karne ki koshish karta hai aur ek derivative market mein, woh ek position mein dakhil hota hai, jo ke uske uthaye gaye risk ke ulta hota hai. Hedgers mukhtalif derivative strategies ka istemal karte hain taake price risk ko kam ya khatam kar sakein.
Example
Example ke taur par, ek investor ko 1000 shares company "ABC" ke kharidne ka irada hai, lekin woh bhi apni long position ko market trend ke khilaaf asar se mehfooz karna chahta hai, khaaskar jab market mein zyada volatility hoti hai. Isliye, usko ek short position lena chahiye wahi miqdaar mein "ABC" futures mein ek hedge banane ke liye. Aisa karne se uska exposure unfavourable situations ya events se kam ho jayega jo puray market par asar dalte hain.
Ek aur simple misal de dete hain. Agar shares ke spot market price gir jaye (farz karte hain, kisi trader ke paas ye shares long position mein hain), toh shares ki khatraak se nafaasat ko woh derivative instrument (futures, masalan) mein short position se kamyaab banaya ja sakta hai.
Har hedger aaj hi futures market mein transactions karta hai, jahan prices maaloom hoti hain, jabke in transactions ke nateejay kal spot market mein aane wale hain, jahan prices abhi tak maaloom nahi hoti.
Ek aur misal dete hain. Ek kisaan ne 25,000 lbs pork utpann kiya hai aur use 25th February ko bechna chahta hai. Pork ke spot price 1.50 USD for 1 lb hai. Futures price 25th February ko 1.55 USD for 1 lb hai. Kisaan kya kadam uthayega, agar uske paas yeh concern ho ke price 25th February tak kam ho jayega? Ya usko kis price par lock karna chahiye? Is mamlay mein, kisaan ko ek futures contract par short position lena chahiye jo February mein maturity ke saath hai. Futures price 1.55 USD/lb hoga. Chaliye do scenarios ko dekhte hain.
1st scenario: 25th February ko pork ke spot price 1.45 USD/lb ho jata hai. Kisaan pork ko bechta hai: $1.45/lb * 25,000 lb = $36,250. Fir usne futures contract ko $2,500 ka faida utha kar kharida hai ($1.55 - $1.45)* 25,000 = $2,500. Total profit 36,250 + 2,500 = $38,750 hota hai.
2nd scenario: 25th February ko pork ke spot price 1.60 USD/lb ho jata hai. Kisaan pork ko bechta hai: $1.60/lb * 25,000 lb = $40,000. Fir usne futures contract ko $1,250 ka nuqsaan utha kar kharida hai ($1.55 - $1.60)* 25,000 = – $1,250. Total profit 40,000 - 1,250 = $38,750 hota hai.
Speculators
Speculators aam tor par price movements ka andaza lagakar maamooli dafaqat mein dakhil hone ki koshish karte hain. Hum keh sakte hain ke speculators risk lete hain, unka risk se talluq ek risk-se-pare hai investor se zyada hota hai. Wo derivatives market mein sirf isliye shamil hote hain taake munafa kamayen. Unko market mein sahi jagah pe khud ko rakne ke liye aane wale trends ko sahi tarah se samajhna zaroori hota hai. Aise rawaiye se bilkul bhi unko unke jama kiye gaye funds ki ya unka wapis hasil karne ki surat mein koi suraksha nahi hoti.
Speculators aksar tezi se chal rahe trends ko pakadne ki koshish karte hain, taake wo market kaunsi raah par jayegi uska andaza laga sakein. Is mamlay mein un logon ne technical analysis methodology ke saath-saath fundamentals ka bhi analysis karna hota hai, kyunke fundamentals badalte hue consumer sentiment, expectations, fluctuating interest rates, retail sales ya consumer spending indicators, consumer price aur producer price indexes, kisi mulk ya ilaake ke liye gross domestic product, ya bas ek expert, CEO, prestigious aur internationally renowned corporations aur institutions ke ek single public statement tak range mein aa sakte hain. Speculators bade faiday ya barabar bade nuqsaan hasal kar sakte hain aur aksar wo un un logon ke group mein shamil hote hain jo ke high net investors hote hain, jo ke apne investment portfolios ko diversify karne ki koshish karte hain. Wo hamesha short term mein munafa haasil karne ki koshish karte hain.
Example
Example ke taur par, agar ek speculator ka yakeen ho ke "ABC" ke shares ki keemat teesre din mein kuch upcoming market developments ke chalte ghatne wala hai, toh wo aam tor par uske shares mein short position (unhe bech dena) mein chala jayega (wo unke malik nahi hai) derivative market mein. Agar share price jaise ki ummeed ki gayi tarah girti hai, toh usko kafi bada munafa mil jayega, shares ki quantity par nirbhar karta hai. Lekin, agar share price, ummeedon ke khilaf, badh jati hai, toh usko mutabiq nuqsaan uthana padega.
Ek aur misal lete hain ek speculator ki jo currency market mein trade kar raha hai. Farz karte hain, wo ek news trader (fundamental analyst) ke rawaiye ko follow kar raha hai aur wo EUR/USD pair par bet laga raha hai. Speculator ko lagta hai ke Euro zone ke Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ka report tisre mahine ke dauran aane wala hai, jo ke region ki economic activity ka sab se broad indicator hota hai, aur wo janta hai ke experts GDP figure ke vruddhi dar ke baare mein kya projection karte hain. Maana ke economists ki median estimate Euro blocs GDP ko tisre mahine mein 0.3% tak expand hone ka ishaara karta hai.
Agar speculator ko lagta hai ke region ka GDP experts ke projections se zyada hoga, toh wo market mein dakhil hota hai, EUR/USD pair mein long position (ya euro ko kharidna aur US dollar ko bechna, jaisa ke humne pehle kisi ek article mein discuss kiya tha) ko open karke, kyunke uska ummeed hai ke pair ki keemat barhegi, behtar-than-projected GDP figure ki wajah se. (Hum alag-alag economic, siyasi aur doosre indicators (fundamentals) ko bad mein dekhenge).
Agar official report mein economic growth ki dar, jo ke ummeedon se kam hai, kisi bhi third quarter mein 0.1% ho, toh EUR/USD pair ki keemat ghatna shuru ho jayegi aur speculator nuqsaan darj karega, kyunke uski ummeedon ko kharij kar diya gaya hai.
In misalon ke saath, hum phir se yaad dilate hain ke market mein tijarat karne ke saath saath unchi hadd ka risk bhi hota hai.
Arbitrageurs
Arbitrageurs aksar ek bht tezi se mahaul mein shamil hote hain, jahan faislay zahir ho jate hain, har qadam tezi se liya jata hai, saqte, maamooli. Kabhi kabhi kisi share ki spot market mein keemat apne derivatives market ke price se kam ya zyada ho sakti hai. Arbitrageurs aksar aise khamiyon aur ghalatiyon ko khatam karne ki koshish karte hain. Ye bhi market ki liquidity barhane mein ahem kirdaar ada karte hain.
Arbitrage opportunity tab mojood hoti hai, agar ek investor ko koi kharidne ya ek certain position ko organize karne ke liye koi khaarch nahi uthana padta, hamesha faiday haasil hota hai, aur koi risk nahi hota. Ye teen khasiyaten ek saath mojood hone chahiye. Aksar, arbitrage opportunities kuch hi waqt ke liye dikhayi deti hain, uske baad wo foran gaib ho jati hain.
Kai alag alag arbitrage opportunities hote hain jo explore kiye ja sakte hain. Spot-Futures arbitrage ek sab se simple shakal hai.
Agar ek underlying asset (masalan, kisi commodity) ka futures price spot price ke mukable mehenga (zyada) hai, toh is situation ko Contango kehte hain. Iska matlab hai ke arbitrageur ko yeh commodity future mein kabhi zyada paise dene ke liye tayar hai, jo ke waqiya hone wale waqt mein us commodity ka maamooli price se zyada hone ka nateeja hai. Ye uski khuwahish ka natija ho sakta hai ke us future mein commodity ko lena chahta hai, aj ke dauran us commodity ko kharidne ke bajaaye, jab aaj wo commodity kharidne ke liye kharch ya carry karne ke kharche adaa kar raha hota hai.
Agar ek underlying asset ka futures price spot price ke mukable kam (nihayat kam) hota hai, toh is situation ko Normal Backwardation, ya bas Backwardation kehte hain.
Banks
Commercial banks humesha kaam aane wale market players hain. Woh apne clients ke liye foreign exchange transactions karte hain, jaise international trade ke liye payments, travel funds ki taqseem, aur foreign investments. Commercial banks apne clients ke beech mein bid-ask spread laga kar profit kamate hain. Yani, woh customers ko ek currency ko buy karne ki zyada aur sell karne ki kam price offer karte hain. Commercial banks ka market mein aik stabilizing role hota hai, kyunki woh buyers aur sellers ko connect karne mein madad karte hain aur market mein liquidity maintain karte hain.
Central banks governments ki taraf se kaam karte hain aur monetary policy ko control karte hain, jo aik mulk ki currency ki value ko affect karta hai. Central banks interest rates set karte hain, jo currency ki demand aur supply par asar karte hain. Ziyada interest rates se currency ki demand barhti hai aur uski value mazboot hoti hai. Central banks open market operations bhi karte hain, jahaan woh government bonds ko buy aur sell kar ke market mein liquidity aur interest rates ko manage karte hain. Central banks ki actions ka market par significant asar hota hai, aur traders unki policies aur announcements ko ghor se follow karte hain.
Investment banks bade financial institutions hain jo corporations aur governments ko financial services provide karte hain. Forex market mein, woh apne clients ke liye trading karte hain, proprietary trading karte hain (apne account mein khud hi trade karte hain), aur foreign exchange derivatives jaise options aur futures offer karte hain. Investment banks ke paas advanced trading technology aur market research resources hoti hain, jo unhen informed trading decisions lene mein madad karte hain. Investment banks ki trading activity market mein significant liquidity aur volatility paida kar sakti hai.
Forex market mein, yeh market players aapas mein judte hain aur ek doosre ki actions se asar hote hain. For example, aik commercial bank aik large currency transaction kar sakta hai, jo market mein volatility paida kar sakta hai. Is volatility se hedge funds ko apni positions ko manage karne mein mushkil pesh aa sakti hai, aur retail investors ko trading decisions lene mein dikkat ho sakti hai.
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