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News Trading
Political aur economical news financial world ke fluctuation mein strong impact daalti hain. Aise waqiat ki news jaise ke central bank ke interest rates mein girawat, hukumaton aur badi corporations ki mukadmon mein, tezi se mehangai aur berozgari, ya aisi baat cheet mein izafah hone par market mein hamesha hungama hota hai. Jo market ki tezi hai jo is daur mein bani hui hai, isne bahut se investors ko "khareed aur rakh" ki strategy ki danayi par shak karna shuru kar diya hai. Is mazmon ke hawale se, khabar par trading ab bahut se traders ke invest karne ke iradon ka aham hissa ban gaya hai. Jabke lambay arsay tak ke investors ko apne aap ko khabar par trading karne ki ijaazat bahut kam milti hai, din bhar trading karne wale traders ise session ke doran kayi baar karte hain. Is liye ab kehna mushkil nahi hai ke khabar par trading seekhna har trader ke liye ek ahem hunar hai.
News par trading ke strategies traders ke darmiyan mashhoor hain. Phir bhi, humein aapko ye kehna padega ke yeh shuruwat karne wale ke liye behtareen nahi hai kyun ke ye khatra aur bhi bada ho sakta hai. Lekin, agar aapke paas thoda tajurba hai aur aap anjaane market fluctuations ka tezi se jawab dena jaante hain, to ye aapke trading performance ke liye kafi faidemand ho sakta hai.
Sab se pehle to, news par trading dusri strategies ke muk comparision mein serious returns laa sakti hai kyun ke ahem statistics bade impulses paida karte hain aur volatility badha dete hain. Khabar ek trend ka petrol hai, ise upar ya neeche badhate hue. Iske alawa, khabar ka asar short-term hota hai, aur uski release ke ek ghante baad aap apne trade ko band kar sakte hain.
Iske alawa, jab khabar ke saath kaam karte hain, toh technical ya fundamental analysis padhne ki zarurat nahi hoti. Sari zaroori malumat economic calendar mein di gayi hoti hai. Economic calendar waqt, tarikh aur desh ya currency ko dikhata hai jise khabar se ta'alluq hai. Tamam statistics ahmiyat ke hisaab se tarteeb di jaati hai, jo traders ko sahi faislay lene mein madad karta hai.
Trading Market News Types
News par trading do types ke waqiyat ko mad e nazar rakhti hai - Schedule aur un-schedule news. Aksar mamalik mein trader mutawaqa waqiyat ke saath kaam karte hain - ye waqiyat aik muqarrar schedule ke mutabiq shaya hoti hain. Kyunki isha'at ka waqt pehle se maloom hota hai, isha'at ke waqt tak trader tayyar ho sakta hai, aur is waqt usko pata hota hai ke ye market par kaise asar daalegi aur doosre khiladiyon ka kya reaction hoga.
Un-schedule waqiyat aise hain jo tabiat aapda, askari tanaza aur doosre jughrafiyai phenomenon hain, jo inhe peshgoi karna namumkin hai. Lekin aapko inka samna karna aana chahiye, yaani ke aapko tajaweez market chart ko tezi se tajaweez karke tajaweez karne ki zarurat hoti hai. Kyunki yehi ghair mutawaqa waqiyat hain jo quotes ko sab se kamal ki harkatein karne par majboor karte hain.
Schedule News
Yeh aam mantaq hai k schedule news par trading karna sab se asaan hai kyun ke traders ko pehle se maloom hota hai ke isha'at se pehle aur iske baad market kaise behave karegi. Beshak, aise waqt hote hain jab market beyhad logic ke mukhalif hai. Lekin yeh bohot kam hota hai, aur ek trader jo jaldi se reaction dene aur apne trades ko aisi riskon ke khilaf hedge karne ka tajurba rakhta hai, uske liye ye badi mushkil nahi hoti. Isliye naye logon ko khabar par trading nahi karna chahiye, kyun ke unke paas itna technical aur emotional hunar nahi hota ke woh ek anjaane NFP report ya Fed ke faisale ki lehar mein sawaar ho sakein. Ab ham muqarrar khabron par nazar daalte hain.
Economical Data Points & Company Announcement
Forex traders ke liye iqtisadi reports aur khabrain ek bahut ahem cheez hain kyun ke ye market mein khaas kar major currency pairs mein badi harkat paida karti hain. Niche di gayi paanch kisam ki khabrain hamesha volatility mein izafah karwati hain:
- NFP (Non-Farm Payroll): Non-farm payroll mein mojood logon ki tadad.
- CPI - Consumer Price Index: Istehsal ke mulayam ko shanakht karta hai.
- FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) ki meeting ki khabrein.
- Trade balance data: Import aur export ke darmiyan farq.
- Retail sales data: Khudra bikriyon ka data.
In paanch kisam ki news ka asar hamesha market par hota hai. Aapko bhi dhyan dena chahiye interest rates aur inflation data par, kisi bhi jughrafiyai waqiyat ke baray mein khabar par, kisi bhi central bank ki meetingon par aur woh deshon ki GDP data par jin ki currencies aap istemal kar rahe hain.
Earnings season woh waqt hota hai jab companies har fiscal quarter ke end par quarterly earnings aur loss reports publish karti hain. Ye har saal ke chaar dafa hota hai - January, April, July, aur October mein.
Iska kyun itna ahem hai? Hamesha umeedon aur taqweematon ke aas-paas me earnings reports ke ird gird bohot sari tawajju' aur tajaweez hoti hai. Agar natije umeedon se kam nikalti hai ya tajaweezat ko paar kar jaati hai, toh company ke share price mein chand dino tak tezi hoti hai. Isliye traders is doran ke liye bahut saavdhaani se taiyaar karte hain kyun ke kamyabi se tajaweez ek mauqa deti hai ke bade munafe ki kamai ho sake.
Lekin, kabhi-kabhi ye bhi saaf nahi hota. Maan lo, Tesla ne apne Q4 earnings report ki - revenue analysts ke estimates ko 100K ke hisab se beat kiya aur EPS forecast ke mutabiq tha. Is situation mein market negative reaction de sakti hai aur TSLA stock ka price gir sakta hai.
Election Announcements
Election Announcements mashhoor hai ke presidential elections trading aur investing ke duniya mein sab se intizaar kiye jaane wale aur asar daale jaane wale waqiyat mein se ek hain. Yeh sab samajh aata hai kyun ke market candidates ke naam maloom hone se lekar inoaguration tak badi harkaton ko dekhta hai.
Chaliye ek example ke roop mein US elections dekhte hain. Kuch log maante hain ki S&P 500 index ko vote ke natije ka anumaan lagaya ja sakta hai. Kuch is raaye par hain ki Democratic jeet ka market par sakht asar hota hai, aur kuch ulte par hain.
Sabse pehle toh ye note karna chahiye ke jeetne waali party aur market dynamics ke darmiyan koi saaf correlation nahi hai. Is mamle mein Republicans aur Democrats ke darmiyan ek dostana parivartan bana rehta hai. Ruling party ki tabdeeli ka asar American shares ke quotes par kisi bhi zahir asar ko nahi dikhaati hai. Dusre shabdon mein, market trends mein woh wazeh pattern nahi hai jo market mein trends mein zahir hota hai. Lekin, S&P 500 index ke dynamics ke hawale se kuch trends par dhyan dena banta hai.
S&P 500 index six months pehle election se 82% up tha (average 4.9%), three months aur one month pehle 64% (average 2.2% aur 1.5% matabiq), aur election se ek hafta pehle 86% (average 1.9%). Election ke baad, halaat kharab ho jaate hain - broad market index ke liye market mein girawat hone ke chances badh jaate hain. Election ke pehle trading week mein, broad market index average 1% gir jaata hai.
Aam taur par, 22 mukaablon mein se sirf saat mukaablay hain jisme market dynamics election ke baad behtar hui, yaane 1944, 1952, 1960, 1988, 1992, 2004, aur 2012. Doosre shabdon mein, aam taur par, election ke baad S&P 500 index ki growth dheemi hoti hai, aur girawat tez hoti hai.
Ek dilchasp baat. US presidential election early November mein Tuesday ko hota hai. Kisi bhi doosre muddat mein S&P 500 ko kisi bhi douran characterize karne wale amoomi mausam ke trends ko yahan bhi jari rakhna chahiye. Lekin, yeh sach nahi hai. Presidential election years mein, mausami factors bahut baar kaam nahi karte.
Trading on News Jo Unscheduled Ya Unexpected Hai
Unscheduled news ki category sab se dilchasp hai. Pehle to iska market par asar bohot tez hota hai. Dusra, aisi khabrein tamam assets par asar daalti hain, jaise ke stocks, indices, bonds, aur doosre. Yani ke anjaane khabrein do qisam ki hoti hain: black swan aur supply ya demand mein major shifts. Chaliye inhe alag alag dekhte hain.
Black Swan Events
"Black swan" ka concept kaafi haal hi mein iqtisad mein dakhil hua - 2007 mein mashhoor trader Nassim Taleb ne isey introduce kiya. Unhone is term ka istemal un rare events ke liye kiya jo bohot bade asarat paida karte hain. Unhone kaha ke log mustaqbil ko peshgoi karne mein apni salahiyaton ko bohot zyada overestimate karte hain.
Ek event ko black swan mana jaaye, toh usay ye shartein puri karni chahiye:
- Befikr aur aaj tak hone waale incidents ka pehle kabhi bhi na hona, kyunki aise waqiyat pehle kabhi history mein nahi aaye hote. Recent example mein Britain ka exit from the European Union hai.
- Bade asarat hona. Brexit ke case mein, ye hai British pound ka zor se girna, sath hi European Union ki economy par bhi negative asar hona.
- Waqiyat ko post-event explain karne ki mumkinat. Jab ye ho jaata hai, toh uske pehle ke asbaab sabke liye wazeh ho jaate hain.
Chaliye haal hi mein hone waale kuch events ko dekhein - jaise coronavirus pandemic. Beshak kisi ne isey expect nahi kiya tha, aur duniya ko panic ne ghera. Iska asar hua ki New York Stock Exchange ne March 12 ko apne biggest crash ko face kiya, jo 1987 ke Black Monday ke baad sabse bara tha.
Trading mein, black swan aam taur par negative events ko refer karta hai, lekin ye positive news bhi ho sakti hain. Aam taur par, ye Monday ko hoti hain, kyunki sabse important news weekends par hoti hain. Trader ke liye, black swan apni position ko margin call par band karne ko kehta hai.
Major Shifts in Supply or Demand
Jaise hum sabko maloom hai, supply aur demand ka balance market economy ki regulation ke liye ek shart hai, jo production ke volume ko demand ki structure ke mutabiq reflect karta hai. Balance value terms mein develop hota hai, aur kuch maal ke liye physical terms mein estimation bhi istemal hoti hai.
COVID-19 ke phelne se oil market mein demand shocks hui thi kyunki "social distancing" policies phel rahi thi, jiski wajah se daily trips ki tadad kam ho rahi thi. Demand shocks taareekhi tor par acute hoti hain, aur crisis se recover karna usually robust hota hai. Lekin, demand ke asar ke alawa, is situation ko supply mein serious changes bhi characterize kar rahe the: March 2020 mein, OPEC+ group ne ek agreement nahi banaya, aur, jo umeed thi ke production ko 1.5 million barrels per day tak kam kiya jayega, har member ko apni marzi se badaane ki ijaazat di gayi. Is tarah se, Q2 2020 mein aur bhi 4 million bpd ya usse zyada market mein daali ja sakti thi. Demand aur supply ka simultaneous shock hone ki zyada sambhavna thi, jisse oil prices ke liye historical lows renew ho sakte the, jabki players ko apne accumulate hue stocks se nijat paana mushkil ho jaata. Oversupply itni severe ho sakti hai ki kaafi stable companies bhi business ke liye bade threats ka saamna karenge.
News Par Trading Kaise Karein
News par trading ka basic principle ye hai ki aise events ko dhoondhein jo market mein is tarah se kuch harkat paida kar sakte hain. Traders ke liye asaan ho, is liye har news item ko ek rating di gayi hai. Jo news item zyada important hoti hai, woh zyada volatility (asset ki keemat mein tabdili) paida kar sakti hai. Is liye, sabse "explosive" news items rating ke top par hoti hain. Lekin har trader apni analysis conduct kar sakta hai aur decide kar sakta hai ki kaun sa event uske case mein news-based trading strategies ko sabse effective banata hai.
Har news market par apna asar alag dikhata hai. Lekin jo traders ko fundamental analysis ke details ko achhi tarah samajhne mein mahir hai, unhe koi bada advantage nahi milta. Beshak, ek desh ki economy ke baare mein malumat aur ek andaza hota hai ke kal ya doosre din Central Bank refinancing rate ya unemployment rate publish hoga, toh aise mein price movements ka khud ko kafi wazeh tasawwur mil jaata hai. Lekin doosri taraf, kisi major bankruptcy ya responsible person ki resignation ke "hot" news ne situation ko ulta kar diya hai. Isliye successful news par trading us par depend karta hai ki aap pahle hi us khabar ko follow karna jaante hain, aur exactly ye malum hai ki woh kab publish hogi. Is approach se pehle decisions lena possible hota hai, pending orders ko open positions ke liye lagane ke liye.
Conventionally, news par trading ko teen phases mein divide kiya ja sakta hai:
- News Publication ki Expectation:
- News ki publication ki umeed hai;
- Information release;
- Traders ka reaction.
Expectation phase mein kya hota hai, iska ek example dekhte hain. Maan lo, FOMC meeting report publish hone wala hai. News kuch dinon tak publish nahi hogi, lekin experts apne forecasts banane aur publish karne mein busy hain. Ye sources reliable nahi hote, lekin phir bhi, ye sab traders ko duniya bhar mein expected changes ka rough idea dete hain.
Waiting period actually mein koi khaamoshi mein doobti nahi hoti. Smart investors samajh jaate hain ki jab news publish hoga, toh sabse liquid assets ko seconds mein khareed liya jayega. Kyunki aajkal traders ke paas automatic betting management systems hote hain. Isliye har koi jo risk lena tayyar hai, woh analytical agencies (jaise ke Reuters, IDC, Bloomberg, etc.) se expert opinions ka istemal karta hai, aur news publish hone se pehle deals open karta hai.
News publish hone ki taraf badhne se pehle, bahut se investors ne apne pasandeeda assets khareed liye hote hain, jisse ki prices mein pehle hi uthaan aa jaye. Isliye news release ke turant baad market reaction kaafi dheema ho sakta hai. Seedhe shabdon mein, news aa gayi hai, lekin market hardly react kar rahi hai. Kya hua? Baat isme hai ki kaafi saare participants ne pehle hi positions open ki hui hain, toh news release unke liye koi role play nahi karta.
News Release:
Yahan teen mumkin scenarios hain:
- News release forecast ke saath match hoti hai;
- Situation forecast se behtar hoti hai;
- News forecast se kharab hoti hai.
Agar data forecast ke saath match hota hai (maan lo forecast positive tha), toh theory ke mutabiq market growth dikhaye. Lekin traders jo pehle hi assets khareed chuke hain, unhone apne profits already le liye hote hain. Is tarah se, prices mein further explosive growth ka potential nahi hota.
Agar news forecast se kharab hoti hai, toh buyers minority mein reh jaate hain. Ulta, majority traders asset ki kamzori par bets se profits lene mein interested honge. Is result mein price kuch ghanton mein gir sakti hai.
Agar news forecast se behtar hoti hai, toh situation aur bhi complicated ho jaati hai. Theory ke mutabiq, prices upar jaani chahiye, lekin kai factors aate hain. For example, growth periods ke saath sudden pullback bhi ho sakta hai (traders "long" positions se exit karte hain, profits lene ke liye, jo ek girawat trigger karta hai).
News Based Trading Strategies on Different Asset Classes
Har trader ka apna tareeqa hota hai news par trading ka, jo ke instrument, report ki importance, aur market par hone wale asar ke mutabiq pehle se define hota hai. Yahan kuch popular news-based trading strategies hain:
- Trading on the News with Pending Orders:
News release se kam se kam 5-10 minutes pehle apne trading schedule ko arrange karna behtar hai. Is ke liye economic calendar ko hamesha pehle rakha jana chahiye aur usme important news ki release time mark karni chahiye.
News publish hone se kuch minutes pehle, do pending orders lagani chahiye, ek Sell Stop aur ek Buy Stop direction mein. Pehli ki installation point 10 points below current price value honi chahiye, aur dusri ki installation point 10 points above price value honi chahiye.
Jab news release hoti hai, toh financial market mein events ka development kisi bhi ek scenario ke mutabiq ho sakta hai:- Price sharp jump upwards karegi;
- Price gir sakti hai;
- Koi dramatic change na ho aur market kuch samay tak oscillate kare.
Pehle scenario ke development mein pending buy order activate hoti hai. Is case mein, Sell Stop order ko turant remove kar dena chahiye.
Agar chart par picture dusre scenario mein develop hoti hai, toh sell order activate hoti hai. Fir Buy Stop order ko turant remove karna chahiye.
Agar market mein koi change na ho, toh dono orders ko delete kar dena chahiye aur doosri news ke release ka intezaar karna chahiye. - Basic News-Based Trading Strategy:
In tamam cheezon se, ek universal algorithm nikala ja sakta hai jo kisi bhi economic news trading strategy ke liye suitable hai.
Action order:- Analyze economic calendar, important news ki release time identify karte hue. Aap kisi bhi broker par aisa calendar find kar sakte hain.
- Trading asset chunna, jo expected news se related ho. Ek currency American dollar ki honi chahiye aur doosri currency published news ki geopolitical affiliation par depend karegi.
- Pending orders Buy Stop aur Sell Stop lagana, current price value se 5-10 points doori par dono directions mein. Orders ko 10-15 minutes pehle lagana chahiye.
- Dono orders ke liye Stop Losses set karna standard scheme ke mutabiq, nearest extrema ke level par.
- Ek order ka activation ka wait karna, jab chart ki volatility badhegi. Dusre order ko jo active nahi hai, use immediately remove karna.
- Profit receive karne ka wait karna. Trade ke liye trailing stop add karna, ya open position ko manually follow karna. Aap order ko close kar sakte hain jab chart ki volatility kam hone lagti hai, usually 15-30 minutes ke baad, jab market ki situation stabilize ho jaati hai.
Ye algorithm sabse aasaan aur effective hai. Aapko technical aur fundamental analysis ke complications ko samajhne ki zarurat nahi hoti. Pending orders set karne aur economic calendar data ko sahi se interpret karne mein hi kaafi hai. - Trading the Breakout Levels:
Ye technique hourly aur four-hour time frames ke liye suitable hai. News significant honi chahiye aur upar batai gayi paanch categories mein fit honi chahiye (FOMC, CPI, NFP, etc.). Aisi news aam taur par chart par ek naya strong trend banati hai.
Is strategy ke liye, chart par classic resistance aur support levels draw karne ki zarurat hoti hai. Jaise hi price inme se kisi ek ko breach karegi, trade us breach ke direction mein open karna chahiye. Doosra option ye hai ki har level ke bahar pending orders place karein aur unme se koi activate hone ka wait karein.
MACD indicator ki histogram ko market entry point dhundhne ke liye istemal kiya ja sakta hai. Jab iske bars green se red color mein change hote hain aur zero level ke neeche gir jaate hain, toh ek sell trade open ki ja sakti hai. Agar bars red se green color mein change hote hain aur central level ke upar chale jaate hain, toh ye ek buy trade open karne ka signal hai.
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