Technical Overview
The daily chart for XAU/USD shows that the risk remains skewed to the downside. A bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintains its bearish slope above the current level, while the longer moving averages remain directionless, far below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, hold directionless within negative levels.
According to near-term technical readings, XAU/USD is poised to extend its decline. The 4-hour chart shows the pair met intraday sellers around a mildly bearish 20 SMA while the longer ones grind lower above it. Technical indicators, in the meantime, accelerate lower within negative levels, supporting another leg south on a break below the $2,010 price zone.
Support levels: 2,010.00 2,001.60 1,988.60
Resistance levels: 2,021.80 2,033.10 2,040.30
Fundamental Overview
Gold remains confined within familiar levels on Thursday despite resurgent US Dollar demand following first-tier news. The United States (US) reported that the economy grew at an annualized pace of 3.3% in the three months to December, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) preliminary estimate. The figure was much better than the 2% anticipated by market players, boosting the market's optimism. As a result, stocks surged, while government bond yields remained subdued.
The US also published December Durable Goods Orders, which were unchanged in December, and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended January 19, up to 214K vs the 200 K expected.
Additionally, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its monetary policy decision, leaving the three key interest rates unchanged, as widely anticipated. President Christine Lagarde surprised investors with a dovish message which weighed on the Euro and further boosted demand for the USD. Lagarde made no efforts to cool down expectations for a rate cut, just saying it was premature to discuss the matter. Furthermore, she noted that almost all underlying inflation measures fell in December and expects it to ease further over the year.
By the end of the events, market players lifted the odds for soon-to-come rate cuts at both shores of the Atlantic. Still, one more big event is ahead: the United States will publish the December core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) favourite inflation gauge, on Friday. The figure is expected to be 3% YoY, easing from 3.2% in the previous month, while the monthly gain is foreseen at 0.2%, slightly above the November one. Better than anticipated readings could further boost speculation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March and send the Greenback higher ahead of the weekend.
Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: Doubts over Fed rate cuts outweigh escalating Middle-East tensions PREMIUM
Gold: Doubts over Fed rate cuts outweigh escalating Middle-East tensions
Prices of the ounce troy of gold managed to regain balance and reverse a negative start of the week, rebounding from five-week lows in the boundaries of the key contention zone around $2,000 to reclaim the vicinity of $2,040 towards the end of the trading week.
METALS BULLISH
Gold to profit as bonds are no longer a safe haven
China’s green push to boost green metals demand
Rising inflation expectations and the Fed's pause create an ideal storm for Gold
Gold has kept up with inflation and has increased over that
Monetary policy has become restrictive enough and is unravelling the growth story
Gold miners’ pain may be bullion investors’ gain
Silver supply inadequate amid monstrous industrial and investment demand
Interest rate cuts to boost Gold
Summer sweet spot for Silver
Gold should benefit from negative real yields in Q2.
Anyone say stagflation? Gold has more to go
US recession risks to keep Gold well in demand.
One of the warning signs of a collapsing currency would be a spike in Gold prices.
The daily chart for XAU/USD shows that the risk remains skewed to the downside. A bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintains its bearish slope above the current level, while the longer moving averages remain directionless, far below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, hold directionless within negative levels.
According to near-term technical readings, XAU/USD is poised to extend its decline. The 4-hour chart shows the pair met intraday sellers around a mildly bearish 20 SMA while the longer ones grind lower above it. Technical indicators, in the meantime, accelerate lower within negative levels, supporting another leg south on a break below the $2,010 price zone.
Support levels: 2,010.00 2,001.60 1,988.60
Resistance levels: 2,021.80 2,033.10 2,040.30
Fundamental Overview
Gold remains confined within familiar levels on Thursday despite resurgent US Dollar demand following first-tier news. The United States (US) reported that the economy grew at an annualized pace of 3.3% in the three months to December, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) preliminary estimate. The figure was much better than the 2% anticipated by market players, boosting the market's optimism. As a result, stocks surged, while government bond yields remained subdued.
The US also published December Durable Goods Orders, which were unchanged in December, and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended January 19, up to 214K vs the 200 K expected.
Additionally, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its monetary policy decision, leaving the three key interest rates unchanged, as widely anticipated. President Christine Lagarde surprised investors with a dovish message which weighed on the Euro and further boosted demand for the USD. Lagarde made no efforts to cool down expectations for a rate cut, just saying it was premature to discuss the matter. Furthermore, she noted that almost all underlying inflation measures fell in December and expects it to ease further over the year.
By the end of the events, market players lifted the odds for soon-to-come rate cuts at both shores of the Atlantic. Still, one more big event is ahead: the United States will publish the December core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) favourite inflation gauge, on Friday. The figure is expected to be 3% YoY, easing from 3.2% in the previous month, while the monthly gain is foreseen at 0.2%, slightly above the November one. Better than anticipated readings could further boost speculation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March and send the Greenback higher ahead of the weekend.
Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: Doubts over Fed rate cuts outweigh escalating Middle-East tensions PREMIUM
Gold: Doubts over Fed rate cuts outweigh escalating Middle-East tensions
Prices of the ounce troy of gold managed to regain balance and reverse a negative start of the week, rebounding from five-week lows in the boundaries of the key contention zone around $2,000 to reclaim the vicinity of $2,040 towards the end of the trading week.
METALS BULLISH
Gold to profit as bonds are no longer a safe haven
China’s green push to boost green metals demand
Rising inflation expectations and the Fed's pause create an ideal storm for Gold
Gold has kept up with inflation and has increased over that
Monetary policy has become restrictive enough and is unravelling the growth story
Gold miners’ pain may be bullion investors’ gain
Silver supply inadequate amid monstrous industrial and investment demand
Interest rate cuts to boost Gold
Summer sweet spot for Silver
Gold should benefit from negative real yields in Q2.
Anyone say stagflation? Gold has more to go
US recession risks to keep Gold well in demand.
One of the warning signs of a collapsing currency would be a spike in Gold prices.
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