Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Consumer Price Index (CPI) kisi bhi forex economic calendar par aik aham instrument hai. CPI ki definition ke mutabiq, ye kisi makhsos peroid of time mein assets (saman) aur services ki basket ki price k satah mein changes (tabdeeli) ko track karta hai. Chezein aur business kee satah ki tashkeel aur hisaab ka tariqa mulk se mulk alag hota hai, lekin CPI ko aam tor par maal-o-khidmat mein izafay ka ek aham naqsha qarar diya jata hai. Aam taur par, CPI numbers ko follow karna aham hai various wajahon ke liye.
Pehle toh, yeh yaad rakhna wazeh hai ke duniya ke aham central banks mein se zyadatar inflation ki taraf mabni hoti hai. Is liye, CPI ke taza tabdilat mustaqbil mein interest rates aur monetary policy ke baray mein kuch isharaat de sakti hain. Misal ke tor par, agar diye gaye mulk mein inflation maqsood hadood se ziada ho jata hai, toh wahan ke Central Bank ne interest rates barhane ka jawab dena ho sakta hai aur yeh currency ko mazboot kar sakta hai.
Is ke ilawa, Forex mein CPI ka asar amooman zyada waqt lene mein hota hai. Purchasing Power Parity ke mutabiq, lambay arsay mein, kam inflation wale currencies un currencies ke muqablay mein qeemat mein izafay ki taraf tawajju dete hain jin mein ke qeemat mein ziada izafa hota hai. Is se USD/CHF aur USD/JPY ke kamzor hone ka ek tareeqa hai jo pichle daur mein dikha gaya hai.
Consumer Price Index - Key Points
- CPI inflation ka acha hisaab hai, kyun ke isay consumer products ki daftar par mushtamil hone ke asas par calculate kiya jata hai. Har mulk ka apna tariqa aur products ki daftar hoti hai, kyun ke consumers mulk se mulk alag chezein khareedte hain. Zyadatar CPI baskets mein khana, makaan aur transportation ki keemat shamil hoti hai.
- Duniya bhar mein zyadatar central banks active taur par inflation ki hadood ko target karte hain, is liye CPI ke latest release inke faislay mein khas asar daal sakti hai. Lekin, yaad rahe ke buland inflation hamesha interest rates mein izafay ko nahi laye ga.
- CPI ka Central Bank ke maqsood rate se kitna mukhtalif hai, ye future policies ke liye aham hai. Jaise ke Federal Reserve jo ke saal mein 2-3% inflation ka maqsood rakhti hai, wo zyadatar tab kuch karegi agar CPI 4% ya us se zyada ho. Lekin amoman central banks interest rates ko apni akhri option ke taur par barhate hain. Buland rates aam logon ke pockets mein paisay kam kar dete hain, unke paas kharch karne ke liye kam rehta hai, aur businesses ko chezein bechna mushkil ho jati hai. Buland rates economic activity ko kam kar dete hain.
Consumer Price Index K Components
US Bureau of Labor and Statistics ki rasmi website ke mutabiq, Consumer Price Index urban consumers ki chezein aur khidmaton ki keemat mein waqt ke saath tabdili ko napta hai. Isme kuch kharch categories shamil hain, mazeed tafseelat ke liye, is Consumer Price Index table par nazar dalen:
Housing expenses, jo ke CPI ka sab se bara hissa hai, jo ke CPI ka 40% se zyada hissa hai.
Food and Beverages category CPI ka 15% hissa hai.
Transportation sector jo ke CPI mein kareeb 15% ka hissa hai.
Medical Care
Recreation
Education
Apparel
Other Goods and Services
CPI Ki Calculate
Ek trader ke liye, CPI ki tafseelat samajhna, chahe wo technical trader ho ya fundamental, dono ke liye barabar ahem hai. Technical traders apne faislay past market price action par mabni karte hain, lekin wo economic events ko bhi istemal kar sakte hain general direction tay karne ke liye. Aur kai traders fundamentals ka istemal karte hain ke prices ki manzil ke baare mein ek khayal hasil karne ke liye, aur phir wo technical tools aur strategies ka istemal karte hain.
Har component kei sub-categories hoti hain, jaise ke Food and Beverages section mein Bakery Products, Meats, Eggs, Dairy Products, Fruits and Vegetables, Sugar and Sweets, Snacks, Baby foods, aur dosre chezein shamil hain.
CPI ki tashkeel mustahiq nahi hai, har saal har category ke weights ko dobara dekha jata hai aur consumer behavior mein tabdiliyon ko shamil karne ke liye adjust kiya jata hai. Ye har mahine update hota hai, aur consumer price index calculator BLS website par bhi dastiyab hai.
Mazid barqi halaat ke mutabiq, CPI ki dar mein izafay kaafi tabdeel ho sakta hai; lekin rasmi data ke mutabiq, US mein average long term inflation kareeb 3% hai. Ye ek bohot ahem economic indicator hai, aur jaise ke kai aur central banks, Federal Reserve bhi medium term mein 2% inflation ko maqsood rakhti hai.
Zyada inflation currency ki purchase power ko taiz depreciation ki taraf le ja sakta hai aur savings ki asal qeemat ko bhi khatam kar sakta hai. 2% annual inflation bhi ye tasawwur rakhta hai ke prices har 36 saal mein do guna ho sakti hain; agar ye dar 4% ho toh ye sirf 18 saal mein ho sakta hai. Is liye, agar Federal Reserve itni buland prices ko bardasht karne lage, toh ye be shak economic stability aur US dollar ka reserve currency status kamzor kar sakta hai.
To phir, 0 ya 1% CPI kyun nahi maqsood hai? Central Bank afraad hai ke is se mulk mein kami ajaegi. Masla ye hai ke negative interest rate policy ko enforce karna mushkil hai. To unka kehna hai ke agar inflation 3% ho jaye toh Central Bank rates bhadha sakti hai, shayad us dar ko bhi guzar kar. Lekin agar CPI -1% ho toh Federal Reserve wahi cheez nahi kar sakta aur negative rates enforce nahi kar sakta.
Aur ek waja ye bhi hai ke 2% inflation targeting policy ke peeche, jo bohot bar ignore ki jati hai, wo ye hai ke aksar tarefein aur households ka bohot bara hissa qarza dar hote hain. Agar Central Banks deflation ko bardasht karein toh unke liabilities purchasing power barha sakti hai aur us qarz ko ada karna mushkil bana dega.
Consumer Price Index Forex Par Kaise Effect Karti Hai?
Duniya bhar ke Central Bankers actively price levels ke tabdilay ki taraf tawajju de rahe hote hain, to CPI inke faislay mein ek ahem kirdar ada kar sakta hai. Wo chhoti tabdiliyon ka jawab nahi denge. Magar agar farq buhat zyada hai aur ta'kid hai, toh wo inhe hal karne ke liye interest rates mein izafay kar sakte hain.
Ye tendency 2011 se 2016 tak European Central Bank ki actions se achhi tarah sabit hoti hai. 2008 ke Great Recession ke baad ECB ne key interest rate ko 1% par rakha. 2011 mein, badhte hue oil prices ke sath Eurozone inflation ne buhat izafa kiya, aik waqt par 3% tak pohanch gaya. Kyunki ye maqsood se zyada tha, iske governing council ne do rate hikes kiye, isay 1.5% tak le kar. Is saal ke end tak, price pressures kam hote gaye. Isi doran ye samajhne mein aaya ke Eurozone Debt Crisis door hone wala nahi tha aur wo shayad mazid kamzor ho sakti hai.
Is ka jawab mein, ECB ne rates ko bar-bar kam kiya, 2015 tak use zero par le aaya. Us waqt, HICP pehle hi negative ho gaya tha, jis ne Eurozone mein aik choti si mudat tak ki deflationary phase ko dekha.
Russia ki Ukraine mein jang aur petrol, gas, gehun aur dosre asas products ki ziada talab ke bais inflation ko dunia bhar mein buhat barha diya. November 2022 mein, USA ke central bank ne rates ko 75 basis points barha kar 3.75% - 4.00% tak pohancha diya. EU, UK aur dosre mulk bhi apne interest rates ko barha rahe hain. Is interest rate barhane ke peechay ki main soch hai ke money supply ko had mein rakhna hai, jisse currency ko mazbooti hasil ho.
CPI Forex Par Short Term Kaise Effect Karti Hai?
CPI numbers central banks ko interest rate decisions lene ke liye mukhlis banati hain. Lekin exchange rates ki taraf ka rukh pehchanna hamesha itna asaan nahi hota. Monetary Policy par faislay lene mein central bankers doosre economic indicators ko bhi madde nazar rakhte hain. Is baat ko yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke CPI ke asar par Forex mein short-term mein price moves pehchanna mushkil hota hai. Wajah ye hai ke bohot se long-term investors apne risks ko news announcements ke doraan hedge karte hain. Matlab, woh apne mojooda long-term orders ke khilaf orders place karte hain takay unhe announcements ke nuksan se bachaya ja sake. Is se news trading ka tajaweezon mein bohot izafa hota hai. Ziyadatar news trading strategies price direction ko guess karne ki koshish nahi karti. Bohot se traders Buy Stop aur Sell Stop order types ka istemal karte hain, taake jab price kisi ek rukh mein tezi se badhne lagti hai, to unhe move ko pakadne mein madad mil sake.
CPI Ke Long Term Impacts
Consumer Price Index ke tabdilat exchange rates par lambe arsay mein asar daal sakti hain. Purchasing Power Parity theory ke mutabiq, currencies jin ki inflation rates kam hoti hain, woh currencies jin ki inflation rates zyada hain ke muqablay mein qeemat mein izafay ki taraf tend karte hain.
Zyadatar developed economies ki currencies, jaise ke USD, AUD, CAD, GBP, aur kai aur mein average inflation rates 2 se 3% ke aas paas hote hain. Global pandemics, jang, khana aur energy ki kami, recessions, aur economic crises stable economy ke dushman hain. Central banks ka wajood logon ko buland inflation se bachane ke liye hai. Buland inflation businesses ke liye hisaab kitab mushkil banata hai, aur productivity mein kami ho jati hai. Bohot se businesses ko majbooran apni chezein mehengi karne par majboor karna parta hai, jab prices bohat zyada hote hain toh consumers kam kharch karte hain. Isi wajah se businesses bandh jaate hain, products nahi banaye jate hain aur log dhan khota jaate hain. CPI meaning in Forex ko samajhna bohot zaroori hai kyunki ye aapko behtar fundamental analysis karne mein madad karega.
CPI aur Interest Rates
Jabke aam taur par inflation central banks ko interest rates barhane par majboor karta hai, ye hamesha high inflation ke baad hota nahi hai. Interest rates barhane ka asar economic ke liye bura hota hai, is liye central banks isi amal se bachte hain jab tak unke paas koi aur option na ho. Interest rates barhane ka matlab hai ke loans mehengi ho rahi hain. Iska natija ye hota hai ke log banks se kam paisay lete hain. Unke paas chezein aur khidmaton ke liye kam paisay hote hain, aur businesses ko nuksan hota hai. Buland interest rate economy ko nuksan pahunchata hai.
CPI (Consumer Price Index) Ko Forex Trading Mein Kaise Istemal Karein
CPI ke FX trading mein istemal ke kuch tareeqay hain:
- CPI Release Numbers aur Forex Short-Term Price Reactions ki Tareekhi Taqat:
Is tareeqe ke mutabiq, traders CPI ke release numbers ke aur FX pairs ke prices ke darmiyan tareekhi talluqat ka jaiza lagate hain. Is tajaweez ke liye, traders ko pichle doraan ke release dates likhna hoga, apne pasandida currency pair ke charts par ja kar dekhein ke prices CPI ke positive aur negative numbers ke istaraf kaise react karte hain. Ye tareeqa thora lamba aur mushkil hai, lekin ek mofeed CPI-based news trading strategy tayyar karne mein kaarguzar ho sakta hai. Ye wahi tajaweez dusre ahem iqtisadi indicators par bhi lagaya ja sakta hai jo FX markets mein short-term price movements par asar daal sakte hain. - Interest Rate Expectations Strategy:
Ye pehle tajaweez ke kuch had tak milti julti hai, lekin thora sa alag hai. Traders ko CPI releases par nazar rakhni hogi. Central banks aksar CPI ka istemal inflation ke levels samajhne ke liye karte hain. Agar CPI index Central Bank ke maqsood se bhatak jaye, toh ye future interest rates mein tabdiliyan batata hai. Central banks inflation ko control karne ke liye interest rate decisions ka istemal karte hain, agar inflation figures zyada hain toh unhein badalna padega. Ye traders ke liye acha indicator ho sakta hai jo future changes ko anticipate karna chahte hain aur isey apni decision-making ke liye istemal kar sakte hain. High CPI aksar interest rate hikes ki taraf ishara karti hai. Agar interest rates barhne ki ummeed hai, toh currency mazboot ho sakti hai. - Core CPI vs. Regular CPI Method:
Core CPI (Food aur Fuel ko exclude karke) aur regular CPI ke darmiyan fark traders ko kuch insights de sakta hai, kyun ke Core CPI asal inflation ke baray mein zyada wazeh tasawwur deta hai. Core CPI ka tafseel se jaiza lagana traders ko asal inflation ke trends ke baray mein malumat de sakta hai, aur ye regular CPI se kam volatile hota hai. Is tareeqe se, traders stable indicators ke saath ek ziada muhtat aur conservative approach istemal kar sakte hain. Lekin zyada risks bhi zyada munafa le kar aate hain, aur regular CPI ke asar ko underestimate nahi kiya ja sakta. - Long-Term Inflation and Currency Stability Strategy:
Ye strategy ek mawafiq fundamental trading strategy hai jo kuch fundamental factors ka istemal karti hai. Fundamental traders CPI ke lambe asarat ko exchange rates par tafseel se tashreef le kar ja kar assess karte hain, Purchasing Power Parity theory ko madde nazar rakhte huye. Is tareeqe ka istemal tajaweez un traders ke liye hai jo economy mein background rakhte hain. Stable inflation rates aik stable economy aur exchange rates ko support karte hain, aur countries jo high inflation ke saath hain unki taraf fundamental traders ke liye achi targets ho sakti hain. Woh weak currencies ko strong currencies ke khilaf bech sakte hain aur is process mein munafa kamane mein kamyab ho sakte hain. Ye strategy short-term nahi hai, aur har position ko band karne mein mahino tak bhi lag sakti hai.
تبصرہ
Расширенный режим Обычный режим