Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!
Safe Heaven Assets
Imagine karen ke aapne apni tamam bachat ko ek umeed afza IT company ke shares mein lagaya hai. Company ne naye products launch kiye hain, achi maeeshat ka izhar kia hai, aur share ki keemat mein tezi se izafa hua hai. Aap is kamai par khush hain. Lekin phir startup ke CEO ne Twitter par aik badqismati mazak kia, jiski wajah se ek bawal ho gaya aur share ki keemat gir gayi, aur aap nuksan mein hain. Ye aik pareshani bhari surat-e-haal hai, na?
Is pareshani ko kam karne ke liye, aapko sirf risky assets jese ke startup stocks ki portfolio banane ki zarurat nahi hai. Aapko safe haven assets mein bhi invest karna chahiye.
Agar humeik professional definition dein, to aise assets jo market ki halat par zero ya ulta asar rakhte hain, unhe safe haven assets kehte hain. Asan alfaz mein, ye securities (aur doosre maali asbaab) hain jo share ki tabdiliyon par kam asar karte hain. Aur kuch aise hote hain jo market indices girne par bhi qeemat mein izafa kar sakte hain. Lekin in assets se jald aur bara munafa nahi hota; ye maali nafa mein izafah karte hain, lekin sthir aur chhote munafe mein. Ye inki khasiyat hai.
Safe Haven Assets Kaise Kaam Karte Hain
Aik achi tarah balance shuda portfolio mein, investor dwara chuni gayi strategy ke bawajood, safe haven assets shamil hone chahiye. Sirf ye poochhna hai ke ye kitna hissa hona chahiye. Pehli baat to ye hai ke isse portfolio ki kamiyabi sidhe mutabiq hoti hai. Iske peeche ki logic asaan hai. Jitne zyada safe haven assets, utni zyada stable portfolio, lekin aapko ziada munafa par ummed nahi karni chahiye. Aur ulta, jitni kam safe haven assets hongi, utna ziada aap kama sakte hain, lekin modal khone ka khatra bhi barh jata hai.
Har investor apna faisla khud karta hai. Phir bhi, ye kaha ja sakta hai ke aise portfolios jo 70-80% protective assets - jese ke bonds aur short-term market instruments - se bani hui hain, unka mukhya maqsad modal ko mehfooz rakhna hota hai. Iske ilawa bhi ziada radical approaches hote hain. Morgan Stanley ke Global Balanced Defensive strategy mein, bond ka hissa 73.1% hai aur Cash Equivalents ka 21.3%. Sirf 5.6% hissa risk ke liye chhoda gaya hai.
Agar aapki portfolio lambi muddat ke liye hai, to safe haven assets ka hissa artificially barhana bekaar hai. Misal ke tor par, Bill Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio mein sirf 25% bonds hain. Doosre maali asbaab ke sahi mix ke sath, ek portfolio jismein kafi safe haven assets hain bhi acha munafa dene mein kaamyaab ho sakta hai.
Ek aur ahem shart hai. Safe haven assets apni functions ko poori tarah ada karne ke liye, inhe portfolio ke doosre assets ki khasiyat ke mutabiq chuna jana chahiye. Alag instruments, jese ke developed markets ke shares aur emerging markets ke shares, alag risks lekar aate hain. Aur in risks ko kam karne ke liye, protective assets ka composition in risks ke mutabiq hona chahiye.
Agar shak hai, to ek mashwara dene wali service ki madad le sakti hai. Smart algorithms aapke liye individually aik balanced portfolio select karenge, jo aapke liye comfortable risk level ko madde nazar rakhte hue. Aur ye use automatic taur par rebalance karenge, jisse high-yielding aur safe haven assets ka ek balance bana rahe aur aap apne maali maqsad ko jald hasil kar sakenge. Aur aap apna modal aur zehan bacha sakenge.
Safe Heaven Assets Types
Chaliye ab aapke liye mukhtalif qisam ke safe haven assets ko madde nazar rakhte hain.
Bonds
Short bonds (3 saal tak) pehli pasand hain. Aam taur par long bonds market ke har tabdili par zyada asar daalte hain. Behtar hai ke aap duration ko apne investment horizon ke mutabiq tie karen. Floating-rate securities aam taur par Central Bank aur Federal Reserve policies ke tabdeel hone se zyada immune hoti hain. Eurobonds hard currency mein denominate hote hain aur aksar crises mein coupon yields ko izafa kar sakte hain. Lekin inki volatile nature ki wajah se inhe safe haven assets mein shaamil nahi kiya ja sakta. Bond issuers ki credit rating BB- se kam nahi honi chahiye. Debt load zyada nahi honi chahiye. Issuers ke financial statements ko check karna chahiye.
Low-liquidity bonds, jese ke municipal bonds, crisis ke doran aam taur par mazid risk mein aajate hain. Sirf ameer entities ke securities portfolio mein shamil ki ja sakti hain. Yehi corporate bonds ke liye bhi lagu hota hai. Issuer ke paas ya to foreign exchange earnings hone chahiye ya stable cash flow.
Sab se zyada protection wale securities ko risk-free kehte hain. Ismein aam taur par U.S. Treasury bonds shamil hote hain. Ye duniya mein sab se mashhoor aur liquid safe haven asset hai. Barah-e-karam yaqeen rakha jata hai ke despite ke national debt jo ke 21 trillion dollar ko paar kar chuka hai, investors har surat-e-haal mein Treasuries mein invest karte hain. Inhe dollar ka darja, duniya ki sab se badi maeeshat, aur U.S. government obligations par bharosa karne ka sab se zyada khatra milta hai. Investors ye bhi lete hain ke global turmoil ke doran U.S. ki maeeshat doosre mulkon se zyada mazboot nazar aati hai, agar beshak crisis khud U.S. mein shuru ho. Bonds ki qeemat mein izafa bhi inhe mazeed qeemat deta hai. Lekin unqualified investors ke liye ye mojoodgi mehdood hai.
Stocks
Safe haven stocks aam taur par bullish market mein kam izafa karte hain aur bearish market mein kam girte hain, aur inki bunyad stability hai. In stocks ko as a rule, speculators ko dilchaspi nahi hoti. Priority di jati hai un issuers ko jo ke unke products hamesha talab mein hote hain aur jin par cyclicality ka asar nahi hota. Agar kisi company ka business state economy ke liye strategic hai to behtar hai. Achi dividend history bhi aik faida hai.
Safe haven capabilities ke baare mein consumer sector securities ke darmiyan mukhalif raye hai. Kuch experts ye samajhte hain ke essential products ki hamesha talab rehne se stable cash flow guaranted hai. Lekin doosre iss par statistics ka hawala dete hain, jisme retailers ki performance market ke par chalne par kharab hoti hai. Isme discount segment mein bhi consumer demand mein kami hone ka asar hota hai.
Dusre aur teesre darje ke stocks, khaas karke jin ka debt load zyada hai, crisis ke doran sab se kam predictable hote hain. Small-capitalization companies pehle darje ke stocks ki priority state ke business support programs mein shaamil nahi hote hain. Crisis ke doran, unhe aam taur par pehle darje ke stocks ke mukable zyada drawdown ka samna karna padta hai.
Crisis ke doran stocks mein badi long positions rakhna achi faisla nahi hota. Isthis mein uchit quality ke issuers, jinki debt kam hai aur stable revenue streams hain, ya behtar hai ke cash cushion ke saath, ki long positions ko doosre industries ya index futures ki short positions ke saath hedge kiya jaye.
Currency
Foreign currency mein rakhha hua cash kisi bhi market par bharosa karta hai. Tawun jata hai U.S. dollar ko pasand kiya jata hai, jo ke hamesha bekarar maeeshat ki sorat mein talab hota hai. Kam pasandidah hain Euro, Japanese Yen, aur Swiss Franc.
Haal mein, Swiss franc ne apni stability ko market ki harkaton ke mutabiq sabit kia hai. Euro ke khilaf stable izafa hua, is wajah se Swiss National Bank ne franc ki fluctuation ko 1.2-1.24 franc per euro ke range mein set kia hai. Currency ki izafaat is wajah se hain ke Switzerland ki banking system mazboot hai aur country ne duniya ke leading medicines, machinery, aur building materials ki manufacturers mein se aik hai.
Phir bhi, ye mashwara hai ke funds ko mukhtalif currencies mein rakhha jaye, jese ke 60% U.S. Dollars, 20% Swiss Francs, aur 20% Euros. Iske ilawa, thora sa paisa apni local currency mein bhi rakhna chahiye taki agar zarurat pesh aaye to aap apni bachat istemal karen aur currency conversion par nuksan na ho.
Kai log, jab economic downturn aata hai, foreign currency ka ikhraj karne ki bajaye asli assets jese ke real estate, cars, aur machinery khareedne ka tariqa pasand karte hain. Iski wajah ye hai ke taqreeban har mulk ki currency ki keemat girne se pehle, behtar hai ke usay kisi faiday daayak cheez par kharch kar dena chahiye. Lekin ye khareedari ka izdihar cash supply mein kami ka sabab bhi hota hai.
Financial crisises ke doran nuksan se bachne ka asan tareeqa ye hai ke aap apna capital currency mein rakhain. Agle hisse mein, hum aise ek aur tarah ke investement ke baare mein baat karenge, jiske ird gird bohot controversies hain, lekin aksar log ise pasand karte hain, chahe woh economic recession ho ya stable maeeshat.
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