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Currency Pairs Volatility
Ziyadatar traders aur investors ko aksar aise market concept se samna karna parta hai jo ke "volatility" kehlaya jata hai. Ye term price movements ko analyze karne ke liye istemal hota hai, sath hi financial market mein trading instruments ko bhi characterize karne ke liye use hota hai.
"Volatility ek statistics-based financial index hai jo ek single trading instrument ke price movements ki amplitude (shiddat) ko bayan karta hai."
Aam taur par currency pairs ki volatility forex market ke quotes par laagu hoti hai. Currency pairs ki volatility ek indicator hai jo price mein mojooda dar se kitni door ja sakta hai.
Saral shabdon mein, currency pairs ki volatility ko samajha jata hai jese ke currency pair ki keemat ka taqreeban moayyan waqt ke liye points mein izhaar. Ye note karna zaroori hai ke stock market ki volatility ko percentage mein napa jata hai, jabke forex market mein aksar points mein napa jata hai. Percentages ko pips mein tabdeel karne ke liye, percentage figure ko sirf 100 se zarb lagana hai.
Misal ke tor par, currency pair GBP/JPY (British pound/Japanese yen) ko iski buland volatility ke liye "Dragon" kehte hain. Is mein trading session ke doran keema 150-250 pips ooper ya neeche ja sakta hai. Wahi EUR/CHF pair (Euro to Swiss Franc ratio) low volatility kehlaya jata hai, jo aksar trading session mein sirf 35 se 40 pips tak hi chalta hai.
Ye yaad rakhna chahiye ke trading aur finance ke maidan mein "volatility" ka ek aur ahem maayne bhi hain. Ye ek single trading instrument ke price variability ke sath sath market ki puri mein badi price changes ko bhi bayan karta hai. Is liye traders aksar high volatility markets, low volatility trading sessions ya increased volatility periods ka istemal karte hain.
Currency Pairs Ki Volatility Kis Par Depend Karti Hai?
Aksar stock market ke analaysts ka khayal hai ke trading instruments ki price volatility unki liquidity par primarily depend karti hai. Liquidity wo hosla hai jo market value par jaldi se bechi ja sakti hai. Saral shabdon mein, liquidity ek asset ki marketability hai.
For example, South African rand dollar se zyada dheere se sell hoga, jo ke zyada logon ki zarurat hai. Dollar ki liquidity zyada hogi.
Kam liquidity wale (jo market price ke qareeb bechne mein mushkil hai) assets ki tendency hai ke inki volatility zyada hoti hai. Aise security ko bechne ke liye malik ko ek kharidar dhoondhna padta hai, jo ke kuch zyada discount par hota hai. Ye ek taqatwar neeche ki taraf price movement ko paida karta hai. Is tarah ke instrument ko kharidte waqt, market par ek kami mil sakti hai. Is natije mein kharidar ko originally declare kiye gaye price se kahi zyada price par transaction volume ka ek hissa kharidna pad sakta hai. Ye market mein ek taqatwar upar ki taraf price movement ke tor par zahir hoga.
Zyada liquidity wale (jo market ke qareeb bechne mein aasani hai) assets, ulte mein, kam volatility ke hote hain. Inke price movements kaafi barabar hote hain aur unka amplitude kam hota hai kyun ke malik aasani se inhe bech sakta hai, aur kharidar market se inhe khareed sakta hai.
Liquidity kisi bhi trading instrument ki volatility mein ek fundamental factor hai. Lekin, alag alag types ke assets ko bhi aksar kisi khaas hawale se asar karta hai jo ke price movements ko kisi had tak mazeed taqwiyat ya kamzori mein daal sakta hai.
Maana jata hai ke liquidity ke ilawa, currency pairs ki volatility par asar daalne wale kuch aur factors hain:
- Global factors (jese ke qudrati aapasi jhagre, crises, aapdaayein, kamyabiyan, wabaayein);
- Local events (kisi khaas ilaake mein instability, siyasi crises, mulk mein interest rates ka tabdeel, GDP aur doosre iqtisadi indicators mein izafah/girawat, wabaayein, epidemics, epizootics);
- Industry factors (ek industry mein kamiyabi ya crises, jese ke wind energy ki izaafah ne oil aur gas industries mein kamaiyon mein kami ka natija diya - hydrocarbon export karne wale mulkon ki currencies ki keemat gir gayi);
- Currency pair ki structure (agar pair countries ki currencies se bana hai jinki economies fundamentally mukhtalif hain, jese ke agar aik state hydrocarbons produce karti hai aur doosri state ka maamoolan sirf service sector hai, to pair zyada volatile hoga, dono currencies ke states mein interest rates ka baraabar farq hai);
- Currency crosses (pairs jo American dollar ya major exotic currency ko shamil nahi karte, unki structure mein high volatility aur supply aur demand ke darmiyan zyada farq hota hai).
- Regulators ki presence/absence (national aur international regulatory organizations ki presence, regulated currencies ko stable banata hai).
In factors se har single currency pair ki volatility market mein banti hai. Lekin amal mein, mazeed components hote hain, jo kisi bhi instrument ke price movement ke amplitude ko barha ya ghataya ja sakta hai - ye hain instrument ki quoted market ki volatility aur trading session (trading time) ki volatility.
Forex trading 24 ghante ke doran hoti hai. Lekin har 24 ghante ko trading sessions mein taqseem kiya jata hai, jinke volatility mein wazeh farq hota hai:
- Asian (aam taur par low volatility hoti hai, maqami taur par Asian currency pairs ke ilawa);
- European (high volatility hoti hai);
- American (sab se zyada high volatility session, yahan bohot se trading instruments ke liye maximum volatility values register hoti hain);
- Pacific (sab se kam volatility hoti hai).
Aam taur par, high volatility currency pairs American trading session ke doran maximum price movement dikhayenge. Isi waqt, Pacific time interval in instruments par rookavat daalayga.
Currency Pairs Ki Volatility Ko Kaise Measure Ki Jati Hai?
Kisi particular currency pair aur market ki price movement amplitude ke baare mein maloomat ko traders aur investors asan taur par istemal kar sakte hain.
Zyadatar financial institutions volatility ko pips mein ya, kam zarurat par, percentages mein napa karte hain. Kabhi-kabhi, price movement ki amplitude ke baare mein maloomat currency terms mein bhi di ja sakti hai.
Trading period ke opening aur closing price ke darmiyan farq ko napa karna ek zahiri aur time-consuming method hai. Is ke liye har candle ki lambai ko muddat ke doran napa karna padta hai, yeh data jama karna padta hai, aur phir ise 10 se divide karna padta hai. Agar calculations monthly ya annually period ke liye kiye ja rahe hain, toh aisi mushkil kaam mein mubtala ho jayenge.
Currency pair ki market par volatility ka asaan tariqa ek volatility calculator ka istemal hai.
Volatility calculator ek software algorithm hai jo aapko kisi mukhtar currency pair ki price movement amplitude ko muddat ke doran napa karne ki izazat deta hai. Online volatility calculator myfxco (Instaforex site) par dastiyab hai.
Ye calculator 20 currency pairs ki ek table ke roop mein diya gaya hai, jin ki volatility 1 minute se le kar 1 month tak ke 9 periods ke liye pehle se calculate ki gayi hai. Measurements pips aur percentages mein di gayi hain. Table ke upar right corner mein teen dots wale button ko click kar ke aap table se trading instruments ko add ya remove kar sakte hain. Kul milake, 109 quotes volatility estimation ke liye dastiyab hain. Ye calculator ek filter bhi rakhta hai jo aapko volatility below/above specified level wale pairs dhundne ki izazat deta hai.
Volatility Ke Asar Se Trading Currency Pairs
Chaliye maan lete hain ke ek trader intraday par GBP/USD mein trade kar raha hai. Market ke opening se le kar pair ne 380 pips ki taraf jaane wala movement dikhaya hai. Humein maloom hai ke is currency pair ki average daily volatility 400 pips hai. GBP/USD ka further upar jaane ke imkan almost zero hai. Is natije mein, trader ko ek long position open karne se bachna chahiye aur woh short position mein dakhil hone ki sochne lage. Isi tarah, trading decisions ko higher time frames par bhi liya ja sakta hai.
Jaise ke hum dekh sakte hain, volatility estimation ki madad se future price movement aur levels ko achi tarah se guess kiya ja sakta hai, jahan par nuksan limitation aur munafa fix karne ke liye maximum efficiency ka izhaar kiya ja sakta hai.
"Floating stop order" ya Trailing Stop ko set karte waqt, price movement ki amplitude ko khaas tor par ahmiyat milti hai. Is tarah ke highly volatile trading instruments par, Trailing Stop step ko barha lena chahiye, warna trader apne order ko galat taur par band karne ka khatra uthata hai aur munafa fix karne ki bajaye nuksan uthata hai.
Volatility ek makhsoos trading strategies aur traders ki behavior ki psychological models ke liye bhi buniad ho sakti hai. Isi tarah, forex mein, agar ek investor constant income bina zyada risk ke hasil karna chahta hai to use low volatility wale currency pairs mein invest karne ki mashwara di jati hai.
Dusri taraf, agar investor aggressive trading pasand karta hai, toh use high volatility wale instruments choose karne ki salahiyat di jati hai. Ye unki munafa mein kafi izafah kar sakta hai.
High volatility currency pairs zyada farq ko transaction opening price aur market se bahir nikalne wale asset cost ke darmiyan qaim karne mein madad karte hain. Ye aapko ziada price difference par capitalization karne ki izazat dete hain.
Investors jo apne trading system mein volatility indicators shamil karte hain, unko aksar maloomat chahiye hoti hai sabse zyada volatile currency pairs ke baare mein, taake wo market ke general aur har trading instrument ke liye kam aur zyada price movements ke periods ke baare mein jaan sakein. Isse behtar aur effective trading strategies banai ja sakti hain.
Trading Sessions Ke Doran Volatility Kaise Badal Jati Hai
Pehle humne zikar kiya tha ke kisi currency pair ya poore group ke trading instruments ki volatility sirf internal "classic" factors par nahi balki kuch external circumstances par bhi depend karti hai.
Ek sabse important external condition, trading session (waqt) ka hota hai. 4 trading sessions mein se 2 (American aur European trade sessions) zyada volatile hoti hain. Lekin, ye yeh nahi ke koi bhi instrument jiska trade us waqt ho, uski price movement ki amplitude dusre do time periods se zyada hogi. Har trading session mein apne currency pairs hote hain - "leaders" aur "outsiders" of volatility.
Asian trading session mein, jo currency pairs Australian dollar (AUD) aur Japanese yen (JPY) ko shamil karte hain, unki quotes mein price movement ki sabse zyada amplitude hoti hai.
Traditional taur par, currency pair GBP/JPY record amplitude of price fluctuations dikhata hai, jiska fluctuation 300 pips ke mark ko aksar cross karta hai, jab ke currency pairs ki average volatility 100-110 ke range mein hoti hai, jise low-volatile time period consider kiya jata hai.
European trading session khud mein kaafi strong volatility rakhti hai. Currency pair GBP/CHF (British pound/Swiss franc) session ke doran average 150 pips karti hai, aur jab strong news aati hai, to iski price amplitude aasani se 400-500 pips ko paar kar sakti hai. Pairs GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, aur EUR/USD bhi kaafi strong volatility rakhte hain.
American trading session sabse zyada volatile hoti hai. Financial world ke sabse famous "ups and downs" American trading floors par hote hain; sabse global crises bhi aksar USA mein hi shuru hote hain aur volatility tezi se badh jati hai.
Is session ki sabse volatile currency pairs hain: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, aur USD/JPY. Volatility ka "leader", European trading period ke doran ki tarah, GBP/CHF hai jiska average daily index 130 pips hai. Ye European trades ke doran se thoda kam hai, lekin jab market activity badhti hai toh situation badal jati hai. GBP/CHF ki peak amplitude of price fluctuations asani se American session mein 800-1000 pips ko paar kar sakti hai.
Pacific trading session. Kuch tutorials is trading period ke baare mein malumat shamil nahi karte, kyun ke is waqt trading volumes doosre sessions ke muqable mein na-kabil mawazan hote hain. Ye sabse low-volatility trading period hai, jismein zyadatar currency pairs din bhar mein sirf 20-30 points se guzar jate hain. Sabse volatile currency pair, Asian trading period ki tarah, GBP/JPY hai; jiska average 50-70 points hota hai trading period ke doran.
European trading session mein 2 ghante Asian ke saath aur 4 ghante American ke saath common hoti hai. Pacific period American ke saath 1 ghante ke doran aur Asian ke saath 9 ghante ke doran overlap hoti hai, jise haqeeqi taur par sirf 1 ghante ka "personal" time milta hai. Aur akhir mein, Asian trading session apne alag waqt ka nahi hoti aur ye Pacific aur European trading sessions ke saath mil kar hoti hai.
Ye malumat un traders ke liye khaas taur par zaroori hai jo high volatility ke periods ko talash karte hain/avoid karte hain, kyun ke aise "double activity" periods mein, zyada liquidity ke bawajood, market ko considerable tarqeelat karne wale khabron ka background bhi badh jata hai.
Most Volatile Currency Pairs
High Volatility Wale Currency Pairs Ke Pros Aur Cons
Har trading system ki zyada tadad aur gehre farqat ke bawajood, high volatility ke kuch zahiri faide aur nuksan hote hain. Lekin, chaliye sabse obvious ones par gaur karte hain.
High volatility ke Disadvantages mein shamil hain:
- Zyada trading risks;
- Orders place karte waqt significant spread;
- Faisla karne ke liye kam waqt;
- Low liquidity, trading orders ki execution mein deri aur slippage ke natijay mein;
- Trading signals ki pehchan mein mushkil;
- Technical market analysis tools ka kaam nahi karna;
- Trading ke doran zyada emotional tension;
- Open position ki constant monitoring ki zarurat.
Highly volatile currency pairs ke behtareen faide hain:
- Zyada trading profitability;
- Chhota payback period.
Ek Trader Ke Liye Currency Pairs Ki Best Volatility Kya Hai?
Ye sawaal behtareen trading volatility ka tay karne ka kaafi tanazur rakhta hai. Traders jo hedging strategies istemal karte hain, unko sukoon se kam volatility wale markets aur trading instruments pasand hote hain. Inme se kuch raat ko ya Pacific aur Asian trading sessions ke doran bhi trade karte hain. Raat ko scalpers bhi is tareeqe se kaam karte hain. Wahi, zyadatar scalping trading systems highly volatile trading instruments ke liye banaye gaye hote hain, trading tezi se hoti hai, jise ke strategy rules ki strict adherance ke sath zyada risk bhi hota hai aur ye aksar expected positive result la kar aata hai.
Lekin, chaliye soch lete hain ke ek scalper trader ne ek phenomenally volatile exotic trading pair dhoondha hai. Technical analysis tools ka istemal uski trading strategy ke mutabiq kiya gaya hai aur trader ne ek position open karne ke liye order place kiya hai. Ek ya do ghante guzar gaye hain lekin order abhi tak open nahi hua hai - market mein liquidity nahi hai, koi traders pair ko wo price par buy/sell karne ke liye tayyar nahi hain jo trader chahta hai. Ek din guzar gaya hai aur order kaam kar raha hai, lekin trader ko bada spread ka surprise mila hai jise use abhi bhi cover karna padega. Aur teesre teen ghante ke baad, scalper samajh gaya hai ke position profitable nahi hai aur market analysis galat hai. Low liquid markets mein, zyadatar technical analysis tools bekaar hote hain.
Upar diye gaye example se hum ye nikal sakte hain ke volatility ek kaafi important characteristic hai currency pairs ki, lekin trading instrument choose karte waqt isko sirf doosre no less important factors ko mad e nazar rakhte hue hi consider karna chahiye.
Sabse volatile currency pairs bhi hamesha behtareen choice nahi ho sakte. Unki low amplitude of price movements trader ko required level of profitability tak pahunchne mein rokavat dal sakti hai.
Agar leverage ke bina trading ki ja rahi hai, to traders ko sabse pehle currency pairs par concentrate karna chahiye jo ek clear trend direction aur high liquidity ke sath aate hain, aur trading instruments ki list mein se sabse zyada volatile wale ko choose karna chahiye. Agar leverage ke sath trading ki ja rahi hai, to behtareen hai ke ek currency pair ko choose kiya jaye jo ek clear trend direction aur high liquidity ke sath aata hai, lekin uski volatility medium ya low ho.
Volatility Indicators
Volatility ko determine karne ke liye indicators ka istemal kaam ko kaafi aasan bana sakta hai.
- Simple Moving Averages: For example, Simple Moving Average (SMA) se market movement ki average amplitude ko measure kiya ja sakta hai. Misal k taur par, 20 SMA set karne par aap past 20 days ke quotes ki average movement dekh sakte hain. Volatility measure karne ke liye dusre varieties of Moving Averages bhi istemal kiye ja sakte hain.
- Bollinger Band Indicator: SMA indicator ke alawa, Bollinger Bands ki madad se bhi currency pairs ki volatility ko measure kiya ja sakta hai. Jab ye chart par place kiye jate hain, to Bollinger Bands do lines ko represent karte hain jinmein do specified deviations hote hain.
Agar bands aapas mein nazdeek aayein to iska matlab hai ke market mein low volatility hai, jabke agar woh door ho jayein to iska matlab hai ke price movement ki high amplitude hai. Indicator volatility ko calculate karne ke liye kisi bhi arbitrary time period ko specify karne ki izazat deta hai. - CCI Indicator: Commodity Channel Index (CCI) bhi currency pairs ki volatility ka indicator samjha ja sakta hai. Ye tool asset value ke deviation ko measure karta hai uske average market value se aur ye market opening/closing ke price maximums par mabni hota hai. Indicator ka zero value asset ke selected time period ke liye average price ko represent karta hai.
Levels 100 aur -100 ke intersection ek strong price movement ko indicate karta hai asset ke averaged value ke muqable mein aur consequently high volatility ki presence ko bhi. - ATR Indicator: Market mein volatility ko determine karne ka ek kaafi original tareeqa Average True Range (ATR) oscillator ka istemal karna hai. ATR indicator technical analysis ke means ke small values ko sideways price movement ki taraf ishara samjha jata hai, jabke high values trend change ka signal dete hain.
Lekin, Curtis Faith ki kitab "The Turtle Way. From Amateurs to Legendary Traders" mein ye sujhav diya gaya hai ke is indicator ko optimal loss limiting levels tay karne ke liye istemal kiya ja sakta hai, yaani ke Stop-Losses set karne ke liye. Is taur par, agar ATR value 350 points hai, to deal entry price se 700 points door par stop order set karne ki salahiyat di jati hai. Mutabiq entry point se doori jitni zyada hogi, utni hi zyada volatile instrument aur market hoga, aur ulta isi taur par Take-Profit levels bhi set kiye ja sakte hain, price movements ki amplitude ko bhi determine karte hue.
Conclusion
Volatility ek currency pair ke taur par trading instrument ki ek sabse ahem characteristic hai. Volatility ek certain trading periods aur market ko bhi characterize kar sakta hai.
Lekin, volatility indicator ka istemal sabse munasib trading instrument choose karne ka faisla karne mein sirf ek important factor hai, trader ko trading system requirements aur currency pair ki liquidity par sabse pehle amal karna chahiye. Jab trader ne trading instruments ka pehla chayan hasil kiya hai, to usko currency pair choose karne mein uski volatility parameters ko mad e nazar rakhna chahiye. Yahan par apne deposit ke size aur leverage ka istemal karne ki zarurat hai.
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