fed rate decision ( interest rate) kai hai

Fed Rate Decision ( Interest Rate) kai hai

Federal Reserve (Fed) Rate Decision ek makhsoos economic event hai jise Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) ka meeting ke doran announce kiya jata hai. Is decision mein Federal Reserve interest rates ko control karta hai. Interest rates ka tay karna ek tajwez hai jise central bank apne monetary policy ke teht karta hai. Yahan kuch mukhtasar taur par Federal Reserve Rate Decision ke bare mein bataya gaya hai:

Federal Reserve Rate Decision:

1. Interest Rates Control:
   • Federal Reserve, United States ki central bank hai, jo interest rates ke zariye monetary policy ko regulate karti hai. Jab economy mein changes hoti hain, toh Fed interest rates ko adjust karke economic conditions ko stabilize karne ka koshish karti hai.
2. Monetary Policy Tool:
   • Interest rates ko control kar ke, Federal Reserve money supply aur credit conditions ko influence karti hai. Interest rates ki tezi ya ghati se economic activity par asar hota hai.
3. Inflation Aur Economic Growth Ka Tawajjuh:
   • Federal Reserve apne monetary policy ke zariye inflation aur economic growth ko control karne ka irada rakhti hai. Agar economy mein inflation badh rahi hai, toh Fed interest rates ko barha sakti hai taki spending slow ho aur prices stable rahein.
4. Employment Ke Liye Bhi Ahem Hai:
   • Federal Reserve apni monetary policy ke zariye employment levels ko bhi influence karti hai. Agar economy mein jobs ki kami hai, toh Fed interest rates ko kam karke spending aur investment ko badhane ka irada kar sakti hai.
5. Economic Indicators Ka Intezar:
   • Market participants, investors, traders, aur economists har quarter mein hoti hui FOMC meetings ka intezar karte hain takay wo Federal Reserve ke interest rate decision aur uske baad ki monetary policy statement ko samajh sakein.
6. Market Volatility Ka Asar:
   • Fed Rate Decision ka announcement market mein volatility paida kar sakta hai. Investors keenly watch karte hain ke Federal Reserve kis tarah ki monetary policy apnane wali hai, aur iske asar mein market kaise respond karegi.

Federal Reserve Rate Decision Impact:

1. Interest Rate Expectations:
   • Agar Federal Reserve interest rates ko barha rahi hai, toh ye market mein interest rate expectations ko influence karega. Investors apne strategies ko is expectation ke mutabiq adjust karte hain.
2. Currency Markets Par Asar:
   • Interest rate decisions ka asar currency markets par hota hai. Interest rates mein izafa, generally, national currency ko majboot kar sakta hai.
3. Stock Market Par Asar:
   • Stock market bhi Fed Rate Decision ke announcement se prabhavit hota hai. Investors equity markets ke asar ka anuman lagakar apne investments ko adjust karte hain.

Federal Reserve Rate Decision ek critical economic event hai aur iska announcement financial markets mein significant movements create kar sakta hai.

Fed Rate Decision ya Interest Rate ka forex market par bada prabhav hota hai kyonki interest rates currency values aur forex markets ke dynamics par directly asar dalta hai. Yahan kuch mukhya points hain jo iska impact explain karte hain:

1. Interest Rate Differentials: Jab Federal Reserve apne interest rates ko badhata ya ghatata hai, toh yeh US dollar ke interest rate differential ke saath dusre currencies ke beech ka antar badhata hai. Yeh interest rate differential forex trading mein ek mukhya factor hota hai jo currency pairs ke values ko influence karta hai.
2. Capital Flows: Higher interest rates normally attract foreign investors ko jyada returns ke liye, isliye jab Fed rates increase karta hai, toh foreign capital US mein invest karne ka interest dikha sakte hain. Isse US dollar ka demand badh sakta hai, jo ki forex market par bullish (strong) impact deta hai.
3. Risk Appetite: Jab Fed rates badhata hai, toh global risk appetite par bhi asar padta hai. High interest rates aam taur par risk-averse investors ko attract karte hain, jabki low interest rates risk-taking behavior ko boost karte hain. Is prakar se, risk sentiment aur currency values ke beech direct correlation hota hai.
4. Economic Growth Expectations: Interest rate decisions se judi commentary aur projections traders aur investors ko economic growth expectations ke baare mein insights deta hai. Agar Fed rate increase karta hai, toh yeh economic growth slow down ya inflation control ki indications de sakta hai. Virodh mein, interest rate cut growth ko support karne ka signal ho sakta hai.
5. Forex Volatility: Fed Rate Decision ke announcement ke samay, forex markets mein volatility badh sakti hai. Is samay, currency pairs mein jhatke (spikes) dekhne ko mil sakte hain jab market participants react karte hain aur apne positions adjust karte hain.

In sab factors ke saath, traders aur investors regularly Federal Reserve ki statements, meeting minutes, aur policymakers ke comments par nazar rakhte hain taki unhe future monetary policy decisions ke baare mein insights mil sake. Is tarah se, Fed Rate Decision forex market mein ek critical event ban jata hai jo currency values, trends, aur market sentiment ko influence karta hai.



Fed Rate Decision ya Interest Rate ka forex market par bada prabhav hota hai kyonki interest rates currency values aur forex markets ke dynamics par directly asar dalta hai. Yahan kuch mukhya points hain jo iska impact explain karte hain:

1. Interest Rate Differentials: Jab Federal Reserve apne interest rates ko badhata ya ghatata hai, toh yeh US dollar ke interest rate differential ke saath dusre currencies ke beech ka antar badhata hai. Yeh interest rate differential forex trading mein ek mukhya factor hota hai jo currency pairs ke values ko influence karta hai.
2. Capital Flows: Higher interest rates normally attract foreign investors ko jyada returns ke liye, isliye jab Fed rates increase karta hai, toh foreign capital US mein invest karne ka interest dikha sakte hain. Isse US dollar ka demand badh sakta hai, jo ki forex market par bullish (strong) impact deta hai.
3. Risk Appetite: Jab Fed rates badhata hai, toh global risk appetite par bhi asar padta hai. High interest rates aam taur par risk-averse investors ko attract karte hain, jabki low interest rates risk-taking behavior ko boost karte hain. Is prakar se, risk sentiment aur currency values ke beech direct correlation hota hai.
4. Economic Growth Expectations: Interest rate decisions se judi commentary aur projections traders aur investors ko economic growth expectations ke baare mein insights deta hai. Agar Fed rate increase karta hai, toh yeh economic growth slow down ya inflation control ki indications de sakta hai. Virodh mein, interest rate cut growth ko support karne ka signal ho sakta hai.
5. Forex Volatility: Fed Rate Decision ke announcement ke samay, forex markets mein volatility badh sakti hai. Is samay, currency pairs mein jhatke (spikes) dekhne ko mil sakte hain jab market participants react karte hain aur apne positions adjust karte hain.

In sab factors ke saath, traders aur investors regularly Federal Reserve ki statements, meeting minutes, aur policymakers ke comments par nazar rakhte hain taki unhe future monetary policy decisions ke baare mein insights mil sake. Is tarah se, Fed Rate Decision forex market mein ek critical event ban jata hai jo currency values, trends, aur market sentiment ko influence karta hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Fed Rate Decision

Fed funds rate duniya bhar ke investors aur traders ke liye ek ahem benchmark hai. Iski tadad mein tabdili exchange rates aur mulkoon ki maashiyati haliyat par gehra asar dalte hain.


Monetary Policy


Hum mainly is interest rate ki baat karenge U.S. Federal Reserve system ke nazariye se, kyun ki iska bura asar markets par hota hai aur yeh sabse pehchanay jane wala indicator hai. Pehle mein, hamein samajhna hoga ke kisi mulk ki monetary policy kya hai aur kaise ise regula kia jata hai.
Kisi bhi mumalik ki khushhali uski arthi halat par mabni hoti hai. Aur jabke paisa arthi ki rag hai, toh hakoomat ka asar arthi nizam par aham, agar na ke pehla, hai.
Direct prevention aur administrative measures asar andaz nahi hoti, isliye aaj ke duniya mein sarkari idaray macroeconomic parameters par gair mutasir taur par asar dalte hain, mudra neeti ke zariye. Yeh neeti muqam hasil karne, tijarat, qarz mool capital market ki tashkeel aur non-cash payments ki regulashan mein asar andaz hoti hai.
Mulk economic processes ko seedha nahi chalata, balkay isay qanoonon ke zariye central bank ko is kaarwan mein hissa banata hai. America mein koi central bank nahi hai. Wahan Treasury Department hai, wahan Federal Reserve System hai, jo prime rate mein tabdili ka faisla karta hai. Is tarah, mudra neeti ko regula aur change karne ka asal zariya interest rate hai.
Mumalik ki economy haliyat ke mutabiq, hakoomat ko alag alag arthi neeti ke maqasid ho sakte hain. Kabhi-kabhi mulk ko arthi ishtirak ko barhane ki zarurat hoti hai, aur kabhi-kabhi, ulte, aise ek arthi ko rokna zaroori hota hai jo bohot "tez" ho gayi hai, taake classical overproduction ya buland mahangaai ki mahaasir se bacha ja sake. Ye tamam process mainly Fed rate ke changes ke zariye regula kiye jate hain.

Fed Funds Rate Kya Hai?

Dollar ki quotes sirf supply aur demand se nahi chalti, balkay sarkar ke zariye Fed Funds rate ko barhaane ya ghatane se bhi asar hota hai. Asal mein, yeh Federal Reserve ki interest rate hai jis par wo private banks ko qarz deti hai. Tijaratie idaray, in turn, is paisay ko mukarrar fees ke sath apne mustafid customers ko dete hain. Unhe apne khidmaton ke qeemat ziada ya kam nahi kar sakte. Pehle case mein, bank mustafid customeer ko khota dega, aur doosre case mein, wo apni munafayat nahi kamayega. Is natije mein, uncha satoon authorities credit ke keemat ko barhakar ya kamakar control karte hain.
U.S. Federal Reserve rate ki ahmiyat ye hai ke iski adad ka istemal mulk mein tamam interest charges ko calculate karne ke liye hota hai. Reserve bank dwara diye gaye qarz sabse kam risk wale consider kiye jate hain. Ye qarzein raat bhar ke liye diye jate hain aur sirf un financial institutions ko diye jate hain jo apne naqabil-e-aib paisay ke sath mashaqat rakhte hain. Lending ki kisam par depend karta hai, us se mutafarraq premiums liye jate hain. Qarz ki shiraeat charges tay karte hain jin par qarz diya jata hai.
Fed Funds rate ka asar kai arthi sectors tak pohanchta hai. Iski tabdili stocks, bonds, aur doosre securities ke rates ko badal sakti hai. Iski tadad hamesha mulkoon ke darmiyan tijarat ke talluqat, rawa materialon aur manufactured goods ki qeemat ko asar andaz karte hai. Ye amal production ki maqdar ko control karta hai, jise private business managers ke liye asan ya mushkil banata hai.
Fed trading mein aik ahem kirdar ada karta hai. Iska sidha asar rates par hota hai aur swap ka size tay karta hai. Is rate mein tabdilat ek trader ke liye currency transactions munafa bakhsh bana sakti hain. Sirf aik din mein brokerage commission itni tabdil ho sakti hai ke kisi khaas investment instrument par kaam karna trader ke liye munafa bakhsh na ho.
Aam taur par, key rate mein kami dollar ke liye nuqsaan deh hoti hai. U.S. government bond yields giren hain, jo ke foreign capital ke daakhil hone ko kam kar sakta hai. Ye hota hai jab interest rate differential hota hai. Misal ke taur par, Treasuries aur German Bunds ke darmiyan yield spreads mein kami, sab kuch barabar rehte hue, euro ke khilaf dollar par dabao dal sakta hai. Yahan, haqiqi rates aur yields ka andaza lagana zaroori hai, yani ke mehngai ke bina net. Iske alawa, stock market mein behtar rujhan, dollar ki zaroorat ko risk-free asset ke tor par kam kar deti hai.
Kamzor dollar U.S. exports ko barhata hai. S&P 500 corporations apni revenue ka taqreeban 38% Bahir-e-Mulk se hasil karte hain. Agar U.S. currency kamzor hoti hai, to jab wo revenue repatriated hoti hai, to use dollar mein behtar rate par convert kar liya jata hai. Natija ye hota hai ke export karne walay ki kamai barh jati hai aur unki stocks bhi barh jati hain. Khas tor par, yeh manfi asar ko pura dekhna zaroori hai. Agar Fed rates ki kami ko barhane ke sath hi izafah-e-hifazatiyat ho, to is asar ka koi wazeh nishan nahi hota.
Iske alawa, dollar mein kami asal assets ke favor mein kaam karta hai. Ye oil and gas aur materials sectors ke stocks ke liye faida mand hai. Lekin, ye factor doosre sectors ke liye kam faida mand hai kyun ke kharch badh raha hai.

U.S. Federal Reserve: Dunya ke Sab Se Taqatwar Central Bank Kaise Kaam Karta Hai

U.S. Federal Reserve System ab tak lagbhag dunya ke evil ka markaz samjha jata hai. Haan, wahan dollar chapa jata hai aur wahi U.S. foreign debt ko barhaya jata hai, jise aam tor par global conspiracy theory aur mojooda maali nizam ka qarar hone wale collapse ki theory ke adherents zikar karna pasand karte hain.
Federal Reserve System ki bunyad se le kar ab tak is ke functions aur aamal bilkul mumkin duniya ke maali aur arthi policies ke mutabiq hue hain. System Federal Reserve Act ke taur par muqarrar maqasid ko pura karta hai:

• Mulk ki Central Bank ke mansoobat ko amal mein laye;
• Trading ke asoolon aur mulk ki maashiyat ke darmiyan tasfiya banaye rakhe.
• Mulk ki banking system ki nigrani aur jama karne wale aur qarzdaron ke haqooq ki hifazati kare.
• Dollar, America ki qaumi currency, jaari kare.
• Maliye bazaar ki tanzeem, nigrani, aur management kare
• U.S. government aur doosre international institutions ko depository services farahem kare;
• Domeestic aur international payment systems ke behtareen kaam karne mein madad kare;
• Muqami darajat par liquidity masail ko hal kare aur credit societies ko qarz de.

Fed ki haalat-e-maazi functions mein kuch tabdiliyon ko guzre hain, aur U.S. ruling elite ke positions ke mutabiq hain. Inmein shaamil hain:

• Government monetary policy ko amal mein laye.
• Price aur rozgar ki mustehkam kare.
• Banks ki nigrani aur control, clients ke haqooq ki hifazati kare.
• Financial Market ki mustehkam rakhe aur financial market mein khatraat ko dabaaye;
• U.S. government, shakhsiyat aur maliye idaray, aur foreign official institutions ko government payment transfer system ke management ke zariye muntakhib financial services farahem kare.

Fed ki mukhtalif tafreeq ye hai ke ye ek central bank ka kaam karta hai, haan ke iski malikat sarkar nahi, balkay private individuals ki hai. Is structure ko joint-stock company ke tor par kaam kia jata hai, jiska share khaas status rakhte hain. State Fed ki activities ko managers appoint karke control karti hai. Inhe president ke intikhaab ke baad Senate ki manzoori ke baad mukhlis karta hai. Fed ka main tanaza yeh hai ke jabke ye aik state structure hai, iski malikat private individuals ki hai.
Fed ke structure mein dunya ke zyadatar central banks ke structures se ek hairat angez mukhtalifiat hai. Faisla karna system ke barah-e-rast 12 regional members ka zimma hai, jo ke interest rates ko control kar sakte hain. Ye economy ke izafay ke trends ko tay karte hain, jise iske taraqqi par gehra asar hota hai.
Toh, Federal Reserve ek khaas structure hai jo central bank ke tor par kaam karta hai. Fed U.S. ki commercial banking system ko nigrani karta hai. Fed ke aas paas myths aur afwahen hain, lekin wazeh hai ke yeh koi raaz hakoomat nahi hai. Isi doran, is organization ka apna qanoon hai. Unke aamal Senate aur President ki nigrani mein hai. Yeh woh hain jo Fed ki amal ke liye karwaiyon ka taur tay karte hain.

Rate Kaise Tay Kiya Jata Hai Aur Kab Jaari Kiya Jata Hai?

U.S. central bank ki discount rate Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ke zariye tay ki jati hai. Yeh committee aam taur par saal mein aath martaba milti hai, lekin zarurat parne par isey adbiyat mein bulaaya ja sakta hai. Aisi faisla March 2020 mein liya gaya tha jab COVID-19 pandemic ki wajah se gehra maashi crisis paida hui.
Aaj, interest rate ko tay karne ka asal bunyad woh inflation target hai jo Fed haasil karna chahta hai. Inflation rate arthi ki taraqqi ki dar ko darust karta hai kyun ke jadeed arthi science moderate inflation ko GDP ki taraqqi ke liye ahem tehqiq samajhti hai. Kam Fed interest rate tijarat ka balance behtar banaata hai, stock markets ki taraqqi ko daura karta hai, aur export karne wali companies ki income ko barhata hai. Zyada rate aam taur par U.S. dollar ko mehnga banata hai, jo ke phir awam ki adaegi ko barhata hai aur U.S. foreign debt ko kam karta hai.
High aur low interest rates ke doran mizaaj aam taur par tabdeel hote hain, maamoli taur par haliyat-e-maazi aur halat-e-maazi U.S. aur duniya bhar mein mabni hote hain.

Rate Mein Tabdili Ka Asal Sabab Kya Hai?

Banks sirf consumers ko hi nahi, balkay aapas mein bhi qarz deti hain. Har din ke end par, U.S. banks ko apne assets ke levels ke mutabiq kuch muqarar reserves rakhne ki zarurat hoti hai. Financial institutions regular transactions karte hain, is wajah se unki balance sheet structure mein izafah ya kami ho sakti hai. Regulatory requirements for reserve levels ko pura karne ke liye, banks ko kabhi-kabhi apne peers se overnight qarz lena padta hai. Fed interbank overnight rate ko fed funds rate (key rate) ke zariye regulate karne ki koshish karta hai.
2007-2008 ke maaliyat ke baad aur Great Recession ke baad, Fed ne active tor par assets kharidne ka faisla kiya taake maaliyat ko inject kia jaye. Is natije mein, Fed ne apne balance sheet par $2 trillion se zyada excess reserves ikhatta kie, 2008 mein kam se kam $500 billion ke muqable mein.
Dauran-e-daar, regulator excess liquidity ko system se reverse repo transactions ke zariye nikalta hai. Iska matlab hai ke Treasuries ko Federal Reserve ke balance sheet se mutual funds aur doosre dealers ke paas transfer kiya jata hai jinhe kuch dinon mein dobara kharidne ki zimmedari hoti hai. Regulator reverse repurchase transactions par ek had muqarrar karta hai. Fed banks ko bhi jo funds uske balance sheet par rakhte hain, unhe ek zyada rate deta hai - Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER). Ye ek qisam ka "ceiling" hota hai.
Target key rate (effective fed funds rate) "floor" aur "ceiling" ke darmiyan hoti hai. Target level ko Treasuries ke khareed/farokht ke operations ke zariye regulate kia jata hai. Jab rate ko barhana ho, to government bonds ko dealers ko repo transactions ke hisse ke taur par khareed liya jata hai, aur is tarah financial system se liquidity withdraw hoti hai. Is scenario mein banks aapas mein qarz dene ke liye tayyar nahi hote, balkeh wo apne paisay ko Fed ke paas rakh kar ziada munasib rate par intizam karte hain. Aur vice versa agar fed funds rate ghat jaaye.

Rate Decision Ka Asar Market Par Kya Hota Hai?

Fed ki interest rate sabhi financial markets par ek taqatwar asar dalta hai. Chaliye hum har market ko individually consider karte hain.
Currency designated interest rate ke seedhay asar mein aati hai. Jab U.S. monetary obligations tight hote hain, to dollar mein invest karna zyada attractive mehsoos hota hai. U.S. currency sirf ghar ke andar hi nahi, balkay doosre mumalik mein bhi maqbool ho jata hai. Speculators ise pasand karte hain, baki sab currencies ko side par dhakelte hain. Is natije mein, U.S. dollar ka ratio doosre national currencies ke sath badal jata hai, lekin rate sirf quotes ko shape karne wale factors mein se ek nahi hota.
Yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke exchange rates ko individual states ki monetary policy, big players ki speculation, imports aur exports ke volume, balance of payments, aur doosre indicators tay karte hain. Is silsile mein exchange rates aur credit rates ke darmiyan correlation wazeh nahi hoti. Sahih prediction karne ke liye sab factors ko study karna zaroori hai.
Bond market established credit conditions par direct taur par munhasir hai. Jab woh hard hote hain, to fixed-income financial instruments ki poori class mein munafaat barh jati hai. Bank deposits par izafah hota hai, aur investors ko additional earnings milta hai. The 30-year Treasury notes is situation ka indicator hote hain. Unke izafah/ghatne ka zyada hona deshat angez hota hai kyun ke ye deshat angez ho sakta hai ke mulk mein kisi tasfiya ka imkan ho.
Stock industry federal interest rate ke ulte asar mein hoti hai. Jo zyada hota hai, wo companies ko funding hasil karna aur apni taraqqi mein izafah karna mushkil ho jata hai. Tight credit conditions kai industries ko decline karati hain. Stock prices kam hote hain, aur corporate success ke expectations bhi. Sirf sabar karne wale players trading floor par rehte hain, jo private investors se financing hasil karte hain ya maal bechne se funds se guzara karte hain.
Is asar ko short-lived ke taur par describe kiya ja sakta hai. Kuch cases mein, Ministry apne ane wale sessions ke liye apne plans ko outline karti hai. Traders ko pata chalta hai ke ane wale interest rate se kya expect karna hai aur wo advance mein price ko adjust karte hain. Is tarah, agle meeting ke baad rates mein kisi bhi significant jump ko nahi dekha ja sakta, kyun ke players result ke liye tayyar hote hain.
Chart par obvious tabdiliyan sirf tab hoti hain jab Finance Ministry ek unexpected decision leti hai. Aise khabron ke baad speculators apne assets ke bare mein apne raaye ko tezi se badal dete hain aur ek strong short-term trend create karte hain. Thori dair baad, shor sharaba kam ho jata hai, aur quotes apni standard positions par wapas laut jati hain.
Dunya bhar ke mal-o-asbaab exchanges dollar ki quotes par zyada taur par munhasir hote hain. U.S. ki maashi taraqqi ne mulki currency ko duniya bhar mein sab se ahem bana diya hai. Dollar aksar mumalik ke darmiyan transactions mein istemaal hota hai, aur is currency ki qeemat barhne se product prices ko dobara dekha jata hai.
Toh, aik private trader ko kya karna chahiye? Pehle, safe-haven assets mein invest karna chahiye, jaise ke developed countries ke bonds aur currencies khareedna. Dusri baat, munafaat ko fix karne aur use pehle hi nikal lene ki koshish karna chahiye, tayyar hone par rate ko barhane se pehle, aur market correction ke baad interesting assets ko kam rate par khareedne ki koshish karna chahiye. Is option ka ek nuksan hai - koi nahi janta ke ye correction kab exactly hoga, timing bohot lambi ho sakti hai. Teesri baat, agar mumkin ho, to banks ke shares khareedne ki koshish ki ja sakti hai, jo key rate mein izafay se additional income hasil karte hain.
Har halat mein, aapko khaas taur par careful hona chahiye aur apne investment portfolio ki munafaat ko barqarar rakhne ke liye apni maali taleem ko behtar banana chahiye: financial statements ko parhna sikhna chahiye, issuers ki ratings ko parhna chahiye, aur zarurat padne par bazar ke professionals se madad hasil karne se guraiz nahi karna chahiye.

Interest Rate: Aajkal Kya Haalat Hain?

Bank of England, buland inflation ke khilaaf jaddojehad mein, ne apne benchmark interest rate ko 0.1 percent se 0.25 percent barha diya, jo ke August 2018 ke baad pehli bar hua. "Ek meeting mein jo 15 December 2021 ko khatam hui, us mein committee ne majority (8 se 1) ke sath bank rate ko 0.15 percentage points barha kar 0.25 percent kar dia," ke mutabiq regulator ki website par 16 December ko post ki gayi statement ke mutabiq. Asset purchases ke liye funds ka had 895 pounds rakha gaya hai.
U.K. mein inflation rate November mein 5.1% tak pahunch gaya. Ye dus saal ke andar record unchaai hai aur Bank of England ne muqarrar karda 2 percent ke target se zyada double hai.
Central banks ab coronavirus pandemic ke baiis mein umeedon aur buland inflation ke darmiyan chunauti ka samna kar rahe hain. Virus ke Omicron variant ne ek naye pandemic ka khatra diya hai, aur maashi ko sasti rupye ki zarurat hogi, lekin yehi low rates ki policy inflation ko badhane ki taraf le ja rahi hai.
16 December ko, Norway ke central bank ne bhi apne benchmark interest rate ko barha dia - teesre teen mahinon ke andar doosri martaba. Ab ye 0.5 percent tak barh gaya hai, aur Norwegian regulator aane wale saal mein mazeed izafay ko nahi barqarar rakhne ka ihtimal nahi rota.
Norway mein interest rate ko barhane ka faisla pandemic ke asarat se nikalne wali maashi ko le kar liya gaya tha. Haal hi mein Norway mein inflation five percent se zyada ho gaya tha.
Isi doran, European Central Bank apne raaste par hai aur kisi bhi interest rate ke izafay ki koi alamat nahi dikhata. Isne apne benchmark interest rate ko zero percent par rakh dia, euro area mein barhne wale inflation rates ke bawajood. Bank deposits par interest rate minus 0.5 percent par raha. ECB ke naye estimates ke mutabiq, Eurozone mein 2022 mein inflation 3.2% tak barhega. Pehle ke mutabiq, experts ko yehi lagta tha ke inflation 1.7% ko paar nahi karega.
U.S. Federal Reserve ne apni akhiri meeting mein January mein rate ko 0-0.25% par hi rehne dia. Lekin, regulator ne jald hi inflation ko control karne ke liye rate ko barhane ka elaan kia, jo ke uske forecasts ke muqable zyada hai (2021 ke end tak 7%). Aksar tajaweez karte huye, analysts expect karte hain ke pehla rate hike March mein hi hoga, aur is saal ke darmiyan average chaar se zyada rate hikes hongi."

Fed Rate Decision Mein Kis Tarah Trade Karein?

Fed interest rate meeting aur kisi bhi ahem waqiye ke samne jo ke utni hi ghair yaqeeni aur ittefaq ki kami ke sath hai, uske muqablay mein behtareen trading strategy yeh hai ke intezar karein. Yeh kafi wazeh hai ke anay wale monetary policy statement se ziada volatility ka significant izhar hoga, jo ke aksar currency pairs ko asar andaz karega. Is ke ilawa, U.S. central bank ke rate faislay ke sath Powell ke tafseelaat bhi hongi, jo ke U.S. dollar ke market mein shauq ko sab se zyada asar daalengi.
Aksar se ziada tijarat karte waqt, log ab Fed ke interest rate faislay ke baad hone wale waqiyat ki soorat mein focused hain, pehle ke barabar kis position ko leni chahiye, kyun ke dono economists aur investors ke darmiyan aur haan, khud regulator ke representatives ke darmiyan bhi Fed ke sab se zyada mumkin amalat par ittefaq nahi hai.
Unfortunately, Fed ke faislay par trading karna sirf yeh nahi kehna hota ke rate ko barha jaye ya na barha jaye. Meeting mein, rate decision ke sath sath, Jerome Powell ki press conference mein Federal Reserve ke mustaqbil ki nazar-e-maashi par tafseelat milengi.
Tactically tor par, hum ek taqatwar ibtidai dollar ki reakshan ka intezar karte hain interest rate announcement par, jise kam tez reversion of price tak follow karega, iske baad hum ek chandni ke baad ek mukhlis ho jane tak muqshortah consolidation ka intezar karte hain, jise ke baad Federal Reserve ke head ke bayan se pehle dobara volatility ka ek trigger hoga. Iske khatam hone tak, hum ummid karte hain ke U.S. currency apni zyada mustehkam aur lambi tajaweez shuru karegi, jo ke aik ya is se zyada trading sessions tak jari rahegi. Isi tarah, hum in cheezon ki tawakul rakhte hain:

• Rate decision khud;
• Sath aane wale tafseeli comments;
• Federal Reserve ke head ke zariye maashi nazarya ki coverage;
• Fed ke muhalif members ki tadad.

U.S. Dollar Index

U.S. Dollar Index (DX) aik mashhoor tool hai jo U.S. currency ki qeemat ko ek currencies basket ke muqable mein dikhata hai. Iski qeemat pehle to ye samajhne mein madad karti hai ke main reserve currency ki average qeemat kya hai, aur dusri taraf ye dikhata hai ke exchange rate ki dynamics kya hai, tracking karta hai ke dollar sasta ya mehnga ho raha hai.
Is index ki basket mein cheh currencies shamil hain: euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, aur Swedish krona. To, jab Fed rates kam karta hai, to ye dollar ki qeemat ko currency basket ke muqable mein kam kar deta hai.
Misaal ke taur par, U.S. Central Bank ne March 03, 2020 ko ek be-inteha meeting bulai aur ek hi dafa mein (do steps mein) refinancing rate ko 0.5% kam kar dia taake coronavirus ke asar ko U.S. ki maashi taraqqi par rafa dafa kar sake. Is manzar ke tahat, dono dollar khud aur DX gir gaye.
Mustaqbil ki tabadla ke bare mein, JPMorgan ke analysts ke mutabiq, dollar 2022 ke end tak main currencies ke sath mustehkam hoga, jabke euro, yuan, yen, aur Mexican peso kam honge. Experts ke mutabiq, agle saal ka main trading theme global central banks ki monetary policy ki strategies ka ihtelaaf hoga: regulators alag raaste ikhtiyar karte hain aur mukhtalif maqasid hasil karte hain.
Analysts kehte hain ke U.S. Federal Reserve ke anay wale rate hike ka ishara medium cycle ke final phase ki taraf ishara karta hai jab U.S. currency ko sab se zyada faida hota hai. Is tarah, pehle ke tajaweez ke taur par JPMorgan ke experts ye keh rahe hain ke dollar low-yielding currencies ke sath pehle se mustaqil hoga. Agar Fed expected deadline se pehle ya is se zyada taizi se rates ko barhata hai, to DX high-yielding currencies ke sath bhi mustaqil hoga.

Price Action ki Madad se Fed Rate Decision par Trading Kese Karen?

Price Action signals seedha chart par nazar aane wale pattern par mabni hoti hain. Aise dozons mukhtalif figures hain jo trend ki reversal ya price pullback ko darust karti hain. Single ya double candlestick patterns jaise ke pin bars, rails, inside aur outside bars, engulfing, waghera, chart par khaas tor par aam hote hain. In mein se zyadatar trend ki reversal ya price pullback ko darust karte hain.
Price Action mein tijarat karte waqt, price levels ko le kar ek bada kirdar milta hai. Ye tay karte hain ke pattern signal kitni taqatwar hogi aur price kis raaste mein jayegi.


Kuch types ke levels hain:

• Resistance aur support. Ye lines price ke lows aur highs se draw ki jati hain aur dikhate hain ke price kis range mein hai. Price is range ko tod kar bahar ja sakti hai, naya channel banate hue.
• Trend lines. Ye draw kiye jate hain jab chart par directional trend movement hoti hai. Ye upar ki taraf (bullish trend) ya neeche ki taraf (bearish trend) ho sakti hain.
• Corrected (Fibonacci aur doosre). Ye draw kiye jate hain jab chart par clear trend hoti hai, aur ye resistance aur support levels ka kirdar ada kar sakte hain. Ye pullback aur trend correction ke points dikhate hain.

Aap Price Action levels ko haath se ya indicators ki madad se dono tareeqon se draw kar sakte hain. Chaliye hum ek aise simple trading method ko dekhte hain jo Price Action par mabni hai. Ye trading resistance/support levels aur pin bars par mabni hai. Ye strategy tamam time frames ke liye munasib hai. Lekin, ek time frame chunne par dhyan rakhein, ke iski value hamesha signals ki darusti ke sath talluq rakhti hai. Dusri baaton mein, jo time frame kam hota hai - wahan itne zyada market noise hone ke imkaan hain, aur false pin bars ke dikhne ke imkaan hain. Additional filters ka istemal karke, is strategy ko kisi bhi tool ke saath complete kiya ja sakta hai. Misal ke tor par, market volume indicator ya kam se kam aik classic oscillator jaise ke Stochastic ya RSI ko shamil karke.
Aik desired asset ka chart kholen aur resistance level ko mark karen price maximums ko connect kar ke, aur support level ko mark karen price minimums ko connect kar ke. Ab, aapko bas price movement ko dekhna hai, khaas kar jab ye levels ke qareeb aata hai.


Agar aap ek buy trade open chahte hain to:

• Price support level ke qareeb pohancha hai.
• Aik pin bar resistance level ke qareeb aayi hai jiska lamba shadow neeche ki taraf hai aur chhota shadow oopar ki taraf hai.

Pin bar band hone ke baad, aap ek new order khol sakte hain. Hum Stop-Loss kuch points neeche pin bar ke lambay shadow se set karte hain. Take-Profit resistance level par set kiya jata hai.


Sell order isharaat hain:

• Price resistance level tak pohanch gaya hai.
• Resistance level par aik pin bar bani hai jiska chhota shadow neeche ki taraf hai aur lamba shadow oopar ki taraf hai.

Jab pin bar band ho jaye, aap ek Sell order rakh sakte hain. Hamare liye Stop-Loss order pin bar ke lambay candle ke kuch points neeche set hota hai. Take-Profit support line par set hota hai.
Ye strategy kisi bhi tool ke liye mila sakti hai additional signal filtering ke liye. For example, market volume indicator ya kam se kam Stochastic ya RSI jaise classical oscillators ko shamil karke. Ye khaas tor par tab sach hai jab aap M1 ya M5 time frames par trade kar rahe hote hain, jahan market noise zyada hoti hai, aur false pin bars ka imkaan hota hai. Barah-e-karam note karein ke older charts par additional filters ka istemal nahi kiya ja sakta, kyun ke price action strategies higher time frames par kafi darust signals deti hain.

Fed Rate Decision ( Interest Rate) kai hai




Beshak! Federal Reserve (Fed) Rate Decision, jise commonly "Interest Rate" bhi kaha jata hai, ek ahem maamla hai jo United States ke central bank, yaani Federal Reserve (Fed), ke zariye liya jata hai. Ye decision, jo har kuch mahine mein hota hai, asal mein ek monetary policy tool hai jo economy ko regulate karne ke liye istemal hota hai.

Jab Federal Reserve interest rates mein tabdeeli karta hai, to iska seedha asar credit aur loan ki muddat aur qeemat par hota hai. Agar Fed interest rates ko barhaata hai, to banks ko paisa lena aur dena mehnga hojata hai. Is se banks consumers aur businesses ko loan aur credit dene mein zyada soch samajh kar approach karte hain. Log aur businesses loans aur credit lena kam karte hain, kyunki ye mehnga hojata hai.

Lekin, agar Federal Reserve interest rates ko kam karta hai, to banks ko paisa lena aur dena sasta hojata hai. Is se banks logon aur businesses ko ziada loan aur credit dene mein dilchaspi lete hain. Log aur businesses is opportunity ka faida uthate hain aur zyada shopping karte hain, businesses zyada invest karte hain, jo economy ko tezi se chalane mein madad karta hai.

Is tarah se, Fed Rate Decision economic activity, employment, aur prices par seedha asar daal sakta hai. Yeh ek tareeqa hai government aur central bank ke paas economic conditions ko control karne ka, taki inflation, unemployment, aur overall economic stability ko regulate kiya ja sake. Fed Rate Decision ka har announcement market aur investors ke liye bhi ahem hota hai, kyun ke is se financial markets mein bhi asar parta hai.