Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!
Financial Market Rallies
Aam taur par, "rally" lafz ka racing se taluq hota hai. Lekin iske ilawa, bhi ek aur maayne hain competition hai. Stock trading mein, rally ka analysis is doraan istemaal hota hai jab market mein assets ka tezi se izafa hota hai. Mamoolan, isay lagbhag tamam quotes mein tezi se izafa aur kul sale volume mein izafa se express kya jata hai. Seedhi bhasha mein kaha jaye to, ek market rally ek chhoti muddat hai jab investors apne liye zyada se zyada stocks kharidne ki koshish kar rahe hote hain.
Rally ke doran sab se ahmiyat hasil hone wala indicator uski muddat hai. Ek tezi se badhne wale trend ke hadood ko define karne ke liye kai options hote hain. Aam taur par, is term ka matlab hota hai jab maal ya assets ki average value apne maximum tak pahunch jati hai. Rally ki muddat mein koi fixed value nahi hoti aur yeh trading ki khasoosiyat par mabni hoti hai. Indicators azad taur par 30 minutes se le kar kai saalon tak mein tabdeel ho sakte hain.
Market Mein Rally Ki Wajah Kya Hoti Hai
Rally kai factors ki wajah se ubhar sakti hai. Ye bari deals, systemic investments ya phir kisi bhi cheez ka natija ho sakti hai jo market par asar andaz hoti hai. Sab se lambe doray wale factors mein tax policy mein tabdiliyan, large international trade agreements ki mawafiqat, aur banking structures mein tabdiliyan shamil hain. Ab cryptocurrencies bhi hain, jo ke bare mein maloom hai ke in mein bari had tak keemat mein izafay aaye hain.
A price rally hamesha khushi ka nishaan nahi hota. Kuch cases mein, hamesha barhte hue trend ka ubhar aik ilaqa ki arthi mein mali bubble ka ubhar hone ka ishara ho sakta hai. Apne investement ko khatre se bachane ke liye aapko ye sochne ki zarurat hai ke kaise market se bahir nikalna hai, pehle iske girne se pehle.
Rally Ke Examples
Zyadatar dafa, rallies local hone ka trend hota hai aur yeh kisi khaas ilaqe ki economy se mazbooti se jura hota hai. Christmas holidays ko ek aam misal ke taur par istemal kiya ja sakta hai. Is doran market mein izafa logo ke mutaalik moody aur sellers ke darmiyan hota hai, jo apne maal ko record level par saste daam par dene ke liye tayyar hote hain. Is Christmas rally mein do basic stages ko pehchana jata hai.
Pre-holiday - October se December 25 tak.
"Santa Claus" - December 26 se pehle January ki pehli haftay tak.
Ahmiyat hai samajhna ke is case mein bhi rally ki muddat ka koi thekedari nahi hoti. Ye sirf ek saaf tezi se badhne wale trend se tay hoti hai.
Rally Ke Doran Market Ki Technical Analysis
Rally ke doran trader ke liye sab se ahmiyat hai ke price race ki muddat ko samajhe. Ye ek muddat hoti hai jab keemat lower local extremum se upper tak jaati hai. Rally ki muddat sidhe taur par chunte hue time frame par seedha asar andaz hoti hai. Intraday trading ke supporters ko ye phenomenon kaafi baar aata hai. Misal ke tor par, ek ghante ya do ke liye price movement ek pura-fledged rally hoti hai. Lekin agar long-term trading strategy chuni jati hai, toh intraday price movements insignificant market noise mein badal jati hain.
Dusri taraf, forward-looking investors aise rallies ko dekhte hain jo teen mahine tak chalti hain. Ek classic example hai Apple stock, jo ke chhe mahine mein apni keemat ko lagbhag 23% tak barha sakta hai. Ek rally ko pehchanne ka kaam aasan hota hai, jo bhi trading se wasta nahi rakhta. Kisi bhi stock ke ubhar ya bitcoin ka dobara kisi aur pe aana sabko pata chal jata hai. Trader ke liye mukhya kaam ye hai ke wo pehchan sake ke kab ek rally shuru ho rahi hai aur ye guzar gayi hai.
False Rally
False rallies, ya short-term price rallies, bearish ya bullish market ke kisi bhi phase mein ho sakti hain. Unki mukhya khasiyat ye hai ke ye chhoti muddat tak hoti hain. Aise rallies bearish trend ke har phase mein kai bar ho sakti hain. Analysts aur investors in rallies ko "relief rally", "sucker rally", "echo bubbles" aur "exhaustion" mein taqseem karte hain, market ke phase ke mutabiq.
- Relief rally - Jise pehle bear/bull market ke phase mein zyada istemal hota hai.
- Sucker rally ya dead cat bounce - Jise market ke doosre phase ke rally mein istemal hota hai.
- Echo bubble - Jo market ke teesre phase ki rally mein hota hai.
- Exhaustion - Jo market ke akhri phase mein hota hai.
Trading Rules
Christmas rallies ki misal se sikhte hain ke jab bhi kisi successful trade ko lagane ki high probability hoti hai, toh ye sirf kareeb 70% tak hi hoti hai. Kisi bhi trader ka koi bharosa nahi hota ke wo baqi 30% mein nahi aayega.
Rally ek long period ka ascending trend hoti hai, is liye behtar hai ke short positions na kholein, aur entry points ko standard indicators ka istemal karke dhoondha jaye. Aap MACD, RSI, aur doosre aise indicators ka istemal kar sakte hain. Wajah ye hai ke trader ko ye tay nahi karna padta ke kya trend hai. Market mein ek trend hota hai, aur ye confirm hai.
Trade ko do orders mein baantna behtar hai. Pehle case mein, jab maqsad hasil ho jaye to market se bahir nikalna zaruri hai, aur doosre case mein, sahi waqt ko dikhane wala indicator ka istemal kiya jata hai.
New Year Rally Ke Doran Trading
Kamyabi hasil karne ke liye, zaroori hai ke aap sirf amoomi market trends ko nahi dekhein, balki trend ki wazeh nazar aane ki bhi confirmation ho. Tafseelat ke liye, basic indicators ki taraf rehna kafi hai, jese ke MACD.
New Year rally mein sab se important cheez ye hai ke aapko market mein dakhil hone ka behtareen waqt chunna hai. Ye kisi bhi muqami ya aalmi darje ki bari ghatna ho sakti hai. Isi doran, market quotations ya kisi aur financial instruments par lambe arsay tak asar andaz hone wale chand major events hone chahiye.
Companies jo Christmas rally mein regular izafa dikhate hain mein fast-food restaurant chain McDonald's, coffee chain Starbucks, aur Disney shamil hain. Aur bilkul na bhoolen Apple ko, jo ke is doran apne gadgets ke naye models ka izhar karta hai.
Christmas rally ke kuch general principles hoti hain lekin har market ki economic structure ke khasoosiyat par depend karti hain. Ye Europe aur U.S. mein sab se zyada numaya hoti hai, jahan Catholic Christmas aik public holiday hai. Aam taur par, Dow Jones Index ke hisaab se is doran izafa hota hai.
Jabke market rally poori tarah se samajhne wala nahi hota, is process ko samajhna ke liye basic understanding kafi hoti hai ke kaise isse munafa hasil kiya ja sakta hai. Is doran trading karte waqt sab se important cheez ye hai ke rally ki shuruaat aur muddat ko tay karna, kyun ke long positions "under the curtain" le kar bahir jane ka koi amali faida nahi hota.
Sab se behtareen tareeka munafa hasil karne ka ye hai ke New Year's rally mein hissa lena. Is liye ke is doran ka framework wazeh hadood mein hota hai, aur priority directions maloom aur ache taur par study kiye gaye hote hain, jis se ke risk of financial losses practically zero tak kam ho jata hai.
Experienced Traders Ki Raye Kya Hai?
Jaise ke analysts kehte hain, stocks mein invest karne wale ke liye ye behtareen hai jo is se paanch se das saal mein munafa hasil karna chahte hain. Is case mein ye asal mein nahi hota ke naya rally kab shuru hoga, aur ye kitni der tak chalega. Sahi portfolio diversification aur regular investing ke sath, aap apne liye secure purane dino ke liye achha capital bana sakte hain. Lekin un players ke liye jo "yahaan aur abhi" kamana pasand karte hain, experts ye advise karte hain ke market processes ki study mein gehraai jaen taki har qadam ko hoshyarana taur par uthaya ja sake.
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