federal reserve system (feds) kia hai​​​​​​​

Federal Reserve System (FEDs) Kia hai

Federal Reserve System (FED), jo aam taur par "Federal Reserve" ya "The Fed" ke naam se jana jata hai, United States ka central banking system hai. Ye ek independent entity hai jo monetary policy banata hai aur regulate karta hai. FED ka maqsad financial stability aur economic growth ko maintain karna hai.

FED ke Key Points:

1. Establishment: Federal Reserve System ko 1913 mein establish kiya gaya tha Federal Reserve Act ke tahat. Iska maqsad tha financial panics aur economic instability ko control karna.
2. Structure: FED ka structure decentralized hai aur isme kuch regional banks shamil hain jo different regions of the United States ko cover karte hain. Iska primary office Washington, D.C. mein hai.
3. Functions: FED ke primary functions hain monetary policy formulation, currency issuance, bank supervision, aur payment system regulation.

Federal Reserve System Kaise Kaam Karta Hai:

1. Monetary Policy Formulation: FED monetary policy banata hai jise use karke wo economic conditions ko control karta hai. Interest rates ko adjust karke, open market operations (government securities khareedna ya bechna), aur reserve requirements ke zariye FED money supply ko regulate karta hai.
2. Currency Issuance: FED dollar notes ko issue karta hai aur inki supply ko control karta hai.
3. Bank Supervision: FED banks ko supervise karta hai, unke financial health ko monitor karta hai, aur unko regulate karta hai taki financial stability maintain ho sake.
4. Payment System Regulation: FED financial transactions ko process karne wale payment systems ko regulate karta hai taki transactions secure aur efficient ho.
5. Emergency Lending: FED banks ko emergency situations mein lending provide kar sakta hai taki financial system stable rahe.
6. Economic Data Collection: FED economic data collect karta hai jise wo monetary policy aur economic conditions ko evaluate kar sake.

FED ke Components:

1. Board of Governors: Isme seven members shamil hain jo President ke taraf se nominate kiye jate hain aur Senate ke approval ke baad appointment hotay hain. Is board ka head Federal Reserve Chairperson hota hai.
2. Regional Banks: United States ke alag alag regions ko cover karne wale 12 regional banks hain.
3. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): FOMC monetary policy decisions ke liye responsible hai. Isme Board of Governors ke members, New York Reserve Bank President, aur rotating representatives of other Reserve Banks shamil hain.

Federal Reserve System, United States ki monetary policy ko regulate karta hai aur economic stability ko maintain karne ke liye important role ada karta hai. Iski decisions ka asar financial markets aur overall economy par hota hai.

Federal Reserve System (FEDs):

Federal Reserve System (FEDs) ek aise nizaam ka naam hai jo United States mein maaliyat aur mudra sambandhi masail ko nigrani mein rakhta hai. Yeh nizaam America ke maaliyat ke sehat ka khayal rakhne mein ahem kirdar ada karta hai aur mukhtalif maaliyat asoolon ko barqarar rakhne ka zimma uthata hai.

FEDs, 1913 mein qaim kiya gaya tha, aur is ki bunyadain Great Depression ke baad hui maaliyat ko sudharne ke irade ke teht rakhi gayi thin. Is nizaam ka maqsad, mulk mein taqatwar maaliyat ki tawanai ko barqarar rakhna hai taki sarfeen, sarak aur tijarat mein izafa ho. Yeh maqsad Federal Reserve System ko mulk ki maaliyat mein istiqamati aur mustehkam sehat hasil karne ka zimma deta hai.

FEDs ka tanzim America ke mukhtalif ilaqon mein paanch regional banks ke zariye hota hai, jo apni raye aur zarooriyat ke mutabiq maaliyat ko nigrani mein rakhte hain. Yeh regional banks FEDs ke central board ke rukn hote hain, jo mulk bhar mein maaliyat ke mamlat ko nigrani mein rakhte hain.

FEDs ke kuch ahem functions yeh hain:

1. Maaliyat Ki Nigrani: FEDs ka aham tareen maqsad maaliyat ko nigrani mein rakhna hai. Is mein maaliyat ki hawalat, mudra sirkulayshn aur sood ki dar ko barqarar rakhne ka kaam shaamil hai.
2. Sood Ki Darain Aur Mudra Sirkulayshn: FEDs sood ki darain aur mudra sirkulayshn par nazar rakhta hai taki maaliyat mein mustehkam aur izafi izafah ho sake. Is ke zariye sarfeen ko behtar khidmat milta hai.
3. Tajaweez Aur Salahiyat: FEDs Congress ko maaliyat se mutalliq tajaweez deti hai aur is ke paas kuch salahiyat hoti hai taake wo zarooriyat ke mutabiq maaliyat mein tabdeeliyan la sake.
4. Bainkoon Ko Nigrani Mein Rakhna: FEDs bainkoon ko nigrani mein rakhta hai aur unki surat-e-haal ko monitor karta hai taki faiday aur nuksan ka andaza ho sake.

Federal Reserve System ne apne tareekhi safar mein mukhtalif maaliyat ke challenges ka muqabla kia hai. Is ne mukhtalif waqtoun mein taqat aur mustehkam sehat hasil karne ke liye tajaweezat di hain. Lekin, is ke ird gird hamesha siyasi aur maaliyat ke muaamlay mein tanazaat bhi rehte hain.

Is ke bawajood, Federal Reserve System America ki maaliyat ko barqarar rakhte hue, dunya bhar mein ek mustehkam maaliyat ka namoona ban chuka hai. Is ka tajzia aur tanazur kar ke yeh maloom hota hai ke FEDs ka kirdar maaliyat mein istiqamat aur mustehkam sehat ka sabab ban sakta hai.

Introduction: Federal Reserve System Kya Hai?

Federal Reserve System (Fed) ek maaliyat ke intizam ke liye amrici hukumat ki makhsoos idara hai. Iski bunyad 1913 mein rakh gayi thi aur iska maqsad mulk ki maaliyat mein istiqrar paida karna hai.



Federal Reserve Bank aur Unki Shakhain

Fed ke andar kuch banks hain jo ke alag-alag ilaqon ko cover karte hain. Yeh shakhain, jese New York Federal Reserve Bank, mulk bhar mein maaliyat ki harkat ko nazar mein rakhte hain.

Federal Reserve System ka Urooj aur Tareekh

Fed ka urooj 1930s ke Great Depression ke baad hua. Is doran, hukumat ne ek strong maaliyat ke intizam ki zarurat mehsoos ki aur Fed ko is maqsad ke liye istemal shuru kiya.

Fed ke Unan Aur Umumiyat: Monetary Policy

Federal Reserve System ka ek bara kirdar maaliyat ki siyasat mein hota hai. Isay "Monetary Policy" kehte hain aur is mein mudallil maaliyat ki control shamil hai. Interest rates aur currency supply ko control kar ke mulk ki maaliyat mein istiqrar paida karna iski zimmedari hai.

Fed ke Unan Aur Umumiyat: Banking Supervision

Fed banks ko nigrani karta hai aur unke oper mein transparency aur accountability ko barqrar rakhta hai. Iska maqsad yeh hai ke banks apni zimmedariyon mein iman dari aur barabri qaim rakhen.

Federal Reserve System aur Inflation Control

Fed inflation ko control karne mein bhi ahem kirdar ada karta hai. Interest rates ko regulate kar ke, isay maaliyat par dabe hue asarat ko kam karne mein madad milti hai.

Fed aur Financial Crisis Handling

Financial crisis ke doran, jese 2008 ki maaliyat girawat mein, Federal Reserve System ne tezi se qadam uthaya. Interest rates ko kam kar ke aur financial institutions ko support kar ke, isne mulk ki maaliyat ko bachane mein ahem kirdar ada kiya.

Federal Reserve System aur Unemployment

Fed maaliyat ke zoray par asar dal kar unemployment ko bhi control karne ki koshish karta hai. Interest rates ke zariye, yeh companies ko investment karne ke liye encourage karta hai, jo ke rozi roti paida karte hain.

Fed ki Policy Making Process

Federal Reserve System ki policy banane ka process complex hai. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) iski policy decisions leta hai, jo ke interest rates aur monetary policy ko regulate karta hai.

Federal Reserve System ke Kuch Criticisms

Fed ki policy par tanqeed bhi hoti hai. Kuch log samajhte hain ke iski decisions mein transparency kam hai aur iska istemal political maqasid ke liye hota hai.

Conclusion: Federal Reserve System ka Kirdar

Federal Reserve System ka kirdar amrici maaliyat mein behad ahem hai. Iska maqsad maaliyat mein istiqrar paida karna aur mulk ke maali halat ko control mein rakhna hai. Yeh apni policies ke zariye maaliyat mein hone wale tabdiliyon ka asar kam karne mein madadgar sabit hota hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Federal Reserve System

Federal Reserve System (Fed) United States mein sab se ahem monetary oversight organization hai. Federal Reserve System k asarat bohat zyada hai, iska gehra asar global economic growth par hota hai, funds ke price par hota hai, aur is wajah se tamam asbaab aur assets par bhi hota hai.
Ek haath mein, ye wohi state ka central bank hai jo wohi functions aur asar karne ke liye hote hain: private banks ko control karna, currency notes issue karna, loans aur deposits par average interest rate set karna, waghera.
Lekin Federal Reserve System apne status mein khaas hai: key positions ke nominees ko U.S. President ne Senate se mashwara karke appoint karna, lekin owners private individuals hote hain.
Fed ki official website par, jawabon ke section mein, yeh kaha gaya hai ke formally reserve system kisi ka nahi hai. Iski role ke wajah se is structure ke shares aur decisions khaas tor par ahem hote hain.


Fed ke maqasid Federal Reserve Act ke zariye define kiye gaye hain:

• Financial aur social spheres ke darmiyan balance banaye rakhna.
• Banking participants ke interests ko protect karna.
• Dollar issue karna.
• Domestic financial market ka control karna.
• Large organizations ke liye depository ka kaam karna.
• Country ke andar aur deshon ke darmiyan payments ke functioning ko support karna.
• Liquidity ko maintain karna.

Fed ko na keval domestic balki global economy par bhi asar dalne ke liye ample opportunities hain, jo hum baad mein discuss karenge.

Fed Kaise Aur Kis Soorat Mein Bani?

1791 mein, United States mein First Bank of the United States banai gayi. Iska zimma tha ke United States ki national debt ko pay off karna. Yeh maqsood tha ke 20 saal mein yeh institution U.S. dollar ki issue organize kar sake aur ek solid financial system bana sake.
Fed ki tarah, individuals ne bhi bada kirdar ada kiya: unka lagbhag adha hissa sabhi assets ka tha. Bilkul 20 saal baad, 1811 mein, First Bank ko band kar diya gaya, aur 1816 mein Second Bank of the United States U.S. dollar ko stabilize karne ka zimma sambhal gayi. Phir bhi, yeh bhi 20 saal baad liquidated ho gayi.
Lambe waqt tak banks bilkul centralized nahi thi. Do periods distinguish kiye gaye hain:

• 1837-1862. - "Free banking era";
• 1862-1913. - The system of national banks.

Yek aik system ki zarurat 1873, 1893, aur 1907 mein hone wale financial crises ke silsile ke sath uthi. Iske alawa, 1907 ka saal history mein "banking panic" ke tor par yaad kiya jata hai - New York Stock Exchange ka significant girawat. Is halat ko tab theek kiya gaya tha John Morgan ne, jo apne apne capital ko banking system ko majboot karne ke liye pledge kiya aur doosre bankers ko bhi yehi karne ke liye razi kiya. Ab aap Dow Jones index ke drawdown ka darja dekh sakte hain.
Jekyll Island par ek band group ne Fed ke creators ne ek mawafiqiye pe pohanchne mein kaamyaabi hasil ki, jis se woh alag alag groups ke interests ke darmiyan ek muwafiqiye mila. Fed ko Congress ke order ke zariye formal taur par 1913 mein banaya gaya tha. Is tarah:

• Fed ke upar initially kisi bhi individuals ke hath mein significant influence tha.
• U.S. mein aise hi functions wali financial systems pehle se fail chuki thi.
• Fed par government ka kam az kam influence historical tor par mojood tha.

Fed Ki Current Structure Kaise Hai

Kyunki Fed ke creators ne familiar European system of central banks se door hatne ka faisla kiya tha, is organization ki structure kaafi ajeeb aur pehli nazar mein complicated nazar aati hai. Fed bohot se sub-organizations se bani hui hai aur iske connections government aur commercial entities ke saath hain. Fed se related sab se ahem structures ye hain:

• Board of Governors: Sath governors ko president appoint karta hai board ke consultation ke baad chaar saal ke liye. In mein se ek, president ke faislay ke mutabiq, Fed ke chairman ban jata hai. Is board mein aise log shamil nahi ho sakte jo directly ya indirectly kisi bank ya doosre commercial entity ke management ko influence karte hain.
• Twelve federal reserve banks: Various cities se control hote hain Board ke zariye, ye domestic economy par influence karne ke asal instruments hain. Inke zariye naye issue hone wale dollars general financial system mein flow karte hain. Ye private information aur financial centers hote hain, Fed aur doosre banks ke darmiyan intermediaries hote hain. Inke pass ek board of directors hota hai, jo reserve bank ka hai, jismein nau log hote hain: teen ko Board of the Fed appoint karta hai, teen largest banks ke representatives hote hain, aur teen non-banking sector ke representatives hote hain.
• Banks with Fed participant status: Inka pass reserve banks ke shares hote hain jinhein bechne ka haq nahi hota aur jinmein 6% fixed dividend yield hoti hai. Inka haq hota hai Board of Governors ke chunao mein hissa lene ka.
• Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): Ye Board of Governors ke saath saath reserve banks ke paanch presidents se mil kar bana hota hai. Ye dollar issuance, securities policy, aur lending rate ke dynamics tay karta hai. Barah reserve banks ke saath, ye U.S. economy ko cash supply se bhar deta hai.
  Fed na sirf dollars arbitrary taur par issue nahi karta. Ye securities ke against issue hoti hain. Is tarah, currency issuance ka procedure securities market aur bond-issuing organizations ke saath closely linked hota hai. Is wajah se regulatory process mein doosre institution ka bhi influence hota hai - U.S. Treasury Department.

Fed Aur Doosre Central Banks Ke Darmiyan Main Difference

Fed aur dosre central banks k darmeyan ab tak mojood features mein se kuch farq ye hai:

• Capital formation principle: Capital shares ke sale ke zariye banaya jata . Commercial banks sab se zyada shares ke malik hote hain, lekin unke securities unhe voting ka haq nahi deti aur unhe bechne ka haq bhi nahi hota. Ye system traditional central banks se mukhtalif hai. Unka capital amooman state ke zariye banaya jata hai ya shares bech kar. Dono cases mein, state system ka sab ya decisive hissa malik hota hai.
• Operating returns: Fed currency in circulation ke liye zimmedar hai, yaani naye bills ko print karna. Amooman funds se U.S. Treasury bonds purchase karne ke liye istemal hoti hain, aur kabhi-kabhi doosre assets se bhi. Fed ki income Treasury bonds ko hold karne se aati hai aur doosre securities aur banking operations se hasil hoti hai. Beshak Fed ke board aur staff civil servants nahi hain, lekin unki salaries Congress ke zariye regulate hoti hain. Dividends aur salaries ke baad jo funds Fed ke paas rehte hain, woh U.S. Treasury ke revenue account mein deposit ho jate hain.
• Autonomy: Fed ko bohot zyada autonomy mili hai, lekin iski saari activities, ek limited legal framework ke andar, accountability aur audits ke zariye control hoti hain. Major reports representatives aur Congressional Banking Committee ko diye jate hain. Aur kam se kam ek martaba saal mein, Fed ke banks ka audit hota hai. Auditors monetary policy aur transactional activities ko review nahi karte, aur na hi Fed ke open market operations ko. Auditors ki credentials ki full list Accounting and Auditing Act ya Sarbanes-Oxley Act ke zariye regulate hoti hai.

Fed Ke Instruments

Fed ka U.S. economy par asar dalne ke liye mukhtalif tareeqe hote hain, jese ke Fed rate ko badalna, open market operations ko conduct karna, aur banks ke liye reserve requirements set karna.
Influence ke spheres structural units ke darmiyan taqseem kiye jate hain. Is tarah, Board of Governors rate changes aur reserve requirements ke liye responsible hai, jabke FOMC open market operations ke liye responsible hai. Jo investors ke liye ahem hai, woh hai ke in instruments ka istemal global economy par kaise asar dalta hai.

Global Economy Par Asar Aur Fed Rate

Fed U.S. national debt ko barhane ka zimma hai. Is debt ka ek hissa woh obligations hai jo doosre nations aur Fed ne debt securities khareedne ke liye kiye hain. Is debt ka hissa public debt kehlaya jata hai.
Jaise ke har bank ke key rates, Fed Funds rate ye decide karta hai ke banks ko kitni interest rate par loans milegi. Is rate ki size micro- aur macroeconomics par depend karti hai aur ise system ke experts ki analysis ke zariye decide kiya jata hai. Asar ke darja aur asal cheez is par depend karti hai ke kaunsa market segment dekha ja raha hai.
Bond market directly influence hoti hai - jitna zyada Fed rate, utni zyada yield. Currency market ko zyada indirect taur par asar hota hai, lekin wazeh hai - jitna zyada rate, utna zyada munafa dollars mein currencies ke mukable mein. Stock market opposite taur par affect hoti hai - jitna zyada attractive hoga stocks mein invest karna, utna hi kam Fed Funds rate.
Jab rate kam hota hai, companies ki businesses tezi se barh sakti hain. Bohat si companies ki stock prices bhi is waqt barh jati hain jab unki capitalization aur overall market capitalization zyada hoti hai. Is tarah, jitna zyada kam ho Fed rate, utni hi zyada taqatwar economy hoti hai. Kabhi-kabhi zaroori hota hai ki development ke dar ko kam kia jaye taki overproduction crisis aur zyada inflation se bacha ja sake.

Myths About The Fed

• Myth 1: The Fed's Involvement In The Kennedy Murder
  Fed ke baray mein aik bara myth ye hai ke iska talluq 1963 mein U.S. President John F. Kennedy ke qatal se hai. Executive Order 11110 ke sign hone ke baad, Fed ka status allegedly badal gaya. Treasury Department ko yeh haq mila ke woh funds issue kare jo unke silver reserve ke barabar hote thay (isay silver certificates kehte hain). Iska matlab tha ke Fed ko qarz ada karne ki zarurat nahi thi. Is afsanay ke mutabiq, U.S. ke head of state ko qatal kar diya gaya.
  Reality mein, is decree mein kuch maayne nahi the, balke yeh sirf Fed ko taqat di gayi. Pehle se hi Treasury Department ko limited basis par paisa issue karne ka haq tha. Haqeeqat ye hai ke U.S. Treasury ki taraf se issue ki gayi national currency ke serial numbers Fed ke bills se alag thay. Serial numbers ko alag rangon se mark kiya gaya tha. One-dollar aur two-dollar bills Treasury ne issue kiye, jabke Fed ko is haq nahi tha. By the way, Fed ne apne activities ko finance karne ke liye taxpayer capital ka istemal nahi kiya.
• Myth 2: The Federal Reserve Is A Private Company
  Fed Board of Governors se bana hua hai, jo federal government ka hissa hai. Kyunki system stock issue kar sakti hai, is liye bohot se log samajhte hain ke ye shareholder-managed hai, aur is liye publicly traded company hai. Lekin, sirf ek U.S. bank Fed mein shareholder ban sakta hai. Monetary policy sirf government ke control mein hai.
• Myth 3: The Federal Reserve Prints Cash
  Treasury Department ke Bureau of Engraving ne ise seedha print kiya. Fed finished cash unse khareedta hai, printing ke cost par. Is funds ki total value ko Federal Reserve ke assets ke barabar hona chahiye. Fed ke paas jo cash aur non-cash currency hoti hai, woh regularly publish hoti hai. Koi bhi ise check kar sakta hai.
• Myth 4: The Owners Of The Fed Are Classified
  Securities Commission un companies ko require karta hai jo stocks trade karte hain ke woh apne major shareholders ko har saal report karein. Kisi bhi regional bank ki website par shareholders ki list milti hai, aur aap ye check kar sakte hain ke woh Fed ka shareholder hai ya nahi.
• Myth 5: The Fed Is Not Controlled By The Government
  Har saal, Fed Reserve U.S. House of Representatives ke Speaker ko report karta hai, aur do martaba saal mein apni activities ki report Congressional Banking Committee ko deta hai. Ye reports publicly available hain. United States ke Comptroller General ne 1978 ke law ke mutabiq Fed ka audit kiya hai.

The Impact Of The U.S. Federal Reserve's Decisions On Each Trader

Ye baat to wazeh hai ke system duniya ki economy par asar dalta hai, lekin yeh har trader ki trading par kaise asar dalta hai?
Mulk ki financial situation ko regulate karne ke liye, U.S. Federal Reserve apni economy, siyasat, aur mulk mein production ke halat se guide karta hai. Kisi bhi tabdili se bohot se areas par asar hota hai. Jab production system change hota hai, raw materials aur companies ke securities ka stock up ya down hota hai, dividends ka issue hal hota hai. Humne dollar par asar dalne ki bhi baat ki hai. Iska matlab hai ke sab kuch duniya ki economy se shuru hota hai (action se) aur usi par khatam hota hai. Ye general circulation ka aur ek saboot hai.
Iske alawa, ye system sirf commercial banks ya government organizations ko hi nahi, balki international level ke enterprises aur U.S. government ko bhi support karta hai. Trade ka complete normalization hota hai. Jaise ke kisi mulk mein koi badi aafat ya mushkil siyasi situation hoti hai, toh banks ka rating gir jata hai, currency aur corporate securities bhi down ho jate hain, aur reserve system is situation ko normalize karne mein masroof hota hai, jaldi se isko hal karne mein madad karta hai.
Kyunki global economy market economy ke sab areas ko affect karti hai, isme stock market bhi shaamil hai. State banks aur large enterprises ki securities ki qeemat sari tarah se mulk ki zindagi ki quality par depend karti hai. Federal Reserve financial liquidity ko manage karta hai, jo ke unemployment ko kam karne mein madad karta hai aur banks ke liye optimal interest rates provide karta hai. Is natijay mein overall standard of living barh jata hai, securities ki qeemat normal ho jati hai, aur institutions khud ko foreign agencies ke ratings mein sudhar deti hain.

Federal Funds Rate Kia Hai?

Fed Funds rate woh percentage hai jis par kuch financial institutions doosron ko paisa dehti hain. Keha ja sakta hai ke reserve funds is rate ke hisab se "traded" hote hain. Agar kisi bank ke paas zyada funds hain, toh woh use woh banks ko de sakti hai jin ke paas kam reserve funds hain.
Ye scheme is liye paida hoti hai kyunki ek zaroorat hai ke Fed mein ek certain amount of reserves maintain ho. Pehle pandemic ke douran, is minimum allowale amount of reserves ko time deposits aur checking accounts ke total funds ka 10% hone par calculate kiya jata tha. Spring 2020 mein, is requirement mein asaanii hui; pandemic ke baad, ye pre-crisis level par wapas ja sakta hai.
Federal Funds Rate ke alawa, ek aur rate hota hai jo discount rate kehte hain. Iska istemal discount window ke zariye capital borrow karne mein hota hai - banks seedha regulator se capital leti hain. Ye Federal Funds Rate ke mukable zyada hota hai aur fixed hota hai. Ye is liye kiya jata hai ke banks ko seedha Fed ke sath kam karna kam ho aur woh apas mein zyada se zyada paisa de sakein.
FFR ke changes zyadatar FOMC ke agle meeting mein hote hain. Saal mein 8 aise meetings hoti hain. Extraordinary changes in the Federal Funds Rate bhi mumkin hain, lekin aise scenarios mein extraordinary events ki zarurat hoti hai economy mein.

What Factors Affect Changes In The Fed Funds Rate

Fed ke key rate ko fix nahi kiya gaya hota. FOMC ise economy ke halat aur us mein hone wale processes ke mutabiq change kar sakta hai. Regulator ko economic growth ki stability ensure karna hota hai, aur Federal Funds Rate ko change karna monetary policy ke sabse effective tools mein se ek hai.
Itihas dikhata hai ke ye indicator wide range mein change hota hai. Maximum 1980s mein tha, jab FFR almost 20% tak pahunch gaya tha. Fir ise steadliy decline kiya gaya aur dusron mein, ye kuch zero ke qareeb pahunch gaya. Rare bursts of growth is period ke dauran hoti hain jo world economy aur U.S. economy ke crisis phenomena ke mutabiq hote hain. In periods mein, rate increases ko consumer prices ke growth ko rokne ke liye tool ke taur par istemal kiya jata hai.
Is rate ko barhane/ghatane ki sujhaav dene ke liye koi clear algorithm nahi hota. Regulator ek set of key macroeconomic indicators par bharosa karta hai aur economy mein hone wale processes ko monitor karta hai.


Aise factors mein include hote hain:

• Inflation. Consumer price index ki dynamics regulator ke decisions par strong influence dalte hain. 2022 mein, inflation multi-year records ko break kar raha tha aur U.S. Federal Reserve ka interest rate steadily rise ho raha tha in response. Ye instrument ek tarah ka fire extinguisher ka kaam karta hai - aag ko jaldi bujhane ka tareeqa.
• Business activity, durable goods orders. Jab business activity kam hoti hai aur doosre indicators girte hain, toh monetary policy tight karna koi sense nahi banata. Aise periods mein FFR ya toh constant rehta hai ya ghat jaata hai.

Isi doraan, interest rate ek ideal tool nahi hai, rate ki uncontrolled increase inflation ki problem ko solve kar dega lekin is process mein high debt load wali companies ko nuksan pahunchayega. Regulator ko hamesha ultra-soft aur ultra-aggressive monetary policy ke beech balance karna padta hai.

The Effect Of Changes In The Interest Rate

FFR ke asar par specific market par depend karta hai. Stock market ke liye, FFR increase generally bearish hota hai, jabki bonds ke liye bullish hota hai.

• Stock Market
  Ek FFR increase stock market ke liye bearish factor hota hai. Loans mehenge ho jaate hain aur un companies par jo high debt burden ke saath hain, uska bojh badh jaata hai. Unko apni current loans ki service ke liye dobara loans lena mushkil ho jaata hai. Isse new projects ke freeze hone aur new products ko market mein launch karne ki timing mein shift hone ka khatra hota hai.
  Stock prices likely taur par girenge. Rate ko ghatane se stock market ka revival ho sakta hai, aur companies ke stocks barh sakte hain.
  Ye stock market ke liye overall hai, ye dependency large indices ke case mein behtareen dikhayi deti hai. Kisi particular company ke securities bina interest rate ke change ke bhi girh sakti/hawalat ho sakti hain. Stock quotes par bohot se factors ka asar hota hai, aur FFR adjustment ka asar dusre events se leveled ho sakta hai.
  Is connection ko tod diya ja sakta hai. For example, 2020 mein, jab coronavirus pandemic announce hua, rate almost zero ke qareeb tha. Usi dauran, S&P 500 gir gaya, yani ke low FFR -> rising indices ka connection kaam nahi kiya. Ye general uncertainty aur global economic recovery ke mushkil prospects ke liye tha.
• Bonds
  Jab U.S. Federal Funds Rate ghatata hai, toh bond coupon bhi ghatata hai, jabki bond ki value badh jaati hai. Jab Federal Funds Rate badhta hai, toh opposite processes hoti hain.
  General mein, jab FFR badhta hai, toh debt market ko life milta hai. Bonds conventional stocks ke comparison mein kam risk option hote hain. Rate badhne se bond yields bhi badh jaati hain aur ye increase karta hai ke major indices rising bandh sakte hain, shayad woh correction phase mein ja sakte hain.
  Bond yields ko paper ki value aur coupon yields ke zariye adjust kiya ja sakta hai:
  • Jab FFR ghatata hai, toh debt securities ki price badh jaati hai, lekin coupon kam ho jaata hai.
  • Jab FFR badhta hai, toh bond price girti hai, lekin coupon badh jaata hai.
  
  
  
  Ye relationship hamesha waisa hi rehta hai. Sirf bond yields aur FFRs ki dynamics mein farq ho sakta hai. Agar, for example, rate jaldi gira diya jata hai, toh Treasury bonds ki yield kam hogi, lekin itni tezi se nahi.
• Economy As A Whole
  FFR sab interest rates ko U.S. mein affect karta hai. Keha ja sakta hai ke ye indirectly sari economy ke areas ko affect karta hai. FFR rate employment, unemployment rate, aur credit cost ko businesses aur individuals ke liye influence karta hai.
  Prime rate ke level par FFR par depend karta hai, jo ke rate hai jis par banks most solvent customers (large businesses) ko paisa deti hain. Prime rate dusre loans par conditions par asar dalta hai, jese ke laptop ki purchase ke liye ya mortgage aur car loans ke liye.
  Fed ke decisions ka asar doosre economies par bhi hota hai. Jab rate U.S. mein badhta hai, funds U.S. dollar ki taraf flow hone lagte hain aur developing countries ke currencies is wajah se suffer karte hain.
• Currency Market
  U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate seedha dollar ko dusre currencies ke khilaf affect karta hai. Jab ye badhta hai, U.S. dollar strengthen ho sakta hai, jabki jab ye ghatata hai, toh ye decline ho sakta hai.
  Dollar rate bhi doosre central banks ki policy par depend karta hai, is liye FFR ke change se U.S. dollar ke sharp rise/decrease ki koi guarantee nahi hoti. Bohot kuch doosre central banks ki policies par depend karta hai. Agar, for instance, ECB aur Fed dono hi interest rates ko sharply increase karne lagte hain, toh EUR/USD most likely sharp fluctuations nahi dekhega.
  • Dollar index ke behavior 2022 ke first half mein dollar rate aur FFR decision ke connection ka achha example hai.
  • Dollar index ek tarah ka barometer hai. Isme dollar ko six aur currencies ke khilaf measure kiya jata hai.
  • Dollar index faster grow kar sakta hai baqi ke six currencies se. Ye first half of 2022 ke liye scenario tha.
• What Will Rates Be Like In The Future
  Har FFR hike ke saath, Fed kisi had tak pahunch raha hai. Clear limit nahi hai, lekin regulator ko rates ko indefinite taur par increase karne se rok deti hai. Is se consumer prices ke barhne ka masla hal ho jayega, lekin high debt burden wali companies ke liye bhi mushkilat paida ho jayengi. Iska natija hoga ke business activity gir jayegi, unemployment badhegi, aur economy mein doosre negative processes shuru ho jayenge.
  • Jab tak limit nahi pahunchi hai, maana jata hai ke Fed FFR ko 4.0-4.2% tak pahuncha sakta hai. Ye maximum allowable value hai jisme inflation slow hoga, lekin businesses bach sakti hain.
  • Jab tak limit nahi pahunchi hai, FFR mein rapid decline nahi hoga. Rates kuch saal tak relatively high rehenge.

Criticism Of The Federal Reserve

Fed ke baare mein bohot si criticism suni ja sakti hai kyunki iske long history mein decisions mein ghalatiyan hui hain. For example, 1929 ke Great Depression ke douran, regulator ne cash reserve ko ghatane ki bajaye badha diya. Iska result ye raha ke crisis ke kuch decades tak drag hua. Kuch log isko World War II ke shuru hone ka bhi ilzam dete hain.
2008 ke crisis ke douran, Fed ne bohot hoshiyarana taur par act kiya aur capital ko economy mein pump kiya jabke interest rate ko zero par rakha. Isse stock market mein panic sell-off ruk gaya aur ek naya growth round shuru hua. Halaanki kuch log ye bhi mante hain ke Fed ne zyada funds print kiye jo ki corporate stocks ko bahut upar le gaye. 5 saal ke andar, stock market already new records break kar raha hai. Ab ye $30 trillion ke upar hai.
Jab Fed heads speak karte hain aur benchmark interest rates par decisions liye jaate hain, toh global markets nervously wait karte hain. Iski release ke baad, stock markets aur dollar usually powerful movements shuru karte hain, market reaction ke mutabiq.
Is waqt, Fed ek sovereign debt creation machine hai. U.S. government aur bhi zyada government bonds issue kar rahi hai aur unko bech rahi hai. Haqeeqat ye hai ke woh kabhi bhi pura qarz ada nahi kar sakti kyunki Fed bills print karta hai. Bohot se log is institution ki opaqueness aur ye ke woh puri tarah private hai, is se confused hote hain. Doosre central banks apne countries ke hote hain:

• German Federal Bank 100% state-owned hai;
• Bank of England British government ke behalf par Ministry of Finance ka Solicitor hai;
• 52% Swiss National Bank de facto state-owned hai;
• Bank of Canada 1938 se state institution hai.

It is legendary ke sab central banks aur unki policies Fed ke neeche banayi gayi hain. Lekin kuch countries Fed ke subject nahi hain: Cuba, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Libya, aur North Korea. Ye sab countries bohot ghareeb hain, lekin iska bohot hissa world trade se isolated hone ki wajah se hai.
Central banks ko nahi allow kiya gaya hai ke woh apni local currency jitni chahiye utni print karein. Unko apne reserves mein utne hi dollars rakhne padte hain. Is wajah se duniya ka system U.S. dollars se bohot mazbooti se jura hua hai.