Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!
Central Banks Ki Inflation Par Kyun Koi Power Nahi Hota?
Global ya pori dunya keh lo mein inflation se larna sab se ziada ahmeyat ikhtyar kar gaye hai. Aajkal ki inflation peechle daur k muqabele mein sab se zyada hai, yeh major central banks ke liye duniya bhar mein number one priority ban gaya hai. Rats ke barhane par amalat jise rates barhane wale monetary policies keh sakte hain, ab tak manzoori hasil nahi kar rahi - lekin is par waqt lagega. Phir bhi, serious concerns hain ke jaise ke U.S. Federal Reserve jaise all-powerful institutions bhi "ammunition khatam ho rahi hai," aur situation ko influence karne ke liye kam mauke bante ja rahe hain. Masla yeh hai ke monetary policy ko support karne ke liye Fed ko $9 trillion ke U.S. government aur mortgage bonds ka ek bada overhang liquidate karna padega. Yeh kaam itna asaan nahi hai: in securities ko safaltapoorvak reset karne ke liye kafi liquidity nahi hai. Is situation ko pehle hi "the Fed's worst nightmare" keh diya gaya hai. Yeh situation U.S. aur global financial system ke liye kya matlab hai, is par aaj hum baat karenge.
Inflation K Sath QE Ka Kya Taluq Hai?
Jaise ke hum sab yaad rakhte hain, 2008 mein global financial crisis aayi. Woh traditional measures jo ke financial sector par asar dalne ke liye hoti thi, jo hamare saamne toot raha tha, jaise ke refinancing rate kam karna, woh kaam nahi kar rahi thi. Is par "experimental treatment" apply karne ka faisla kiya gaya - liquidity market mein bharne aur banks, aur phir puri economic players chain ko sasti financing tak pahunchane ke liye bonds khareedna. U.S. Federal Reserve is koshish ka pehla pioneer tha (haan ki Bank of Japan ne 1990s mein similar measures istemal ki thi). Is strategy ko "quantitative easing" (QE) kehte hain.
Dusre decade ke end tak, Fed ka balance sheet kaafi chhota tha. Bonds toh hamesha khareede ja rahe thay, lekin yeh ek systematic buildup tha, jisme nominal GDP ke saath zyadatar correlated tha. 2004 se 2008 tak, for example, total securities jo system ke control mein thay, woh $750 billion se $900 billion tak badh gaya. Essence mein, yeh purchases ek technical measure thi.
September 2008 se, jab QE shuru hua, balance sheet bari tawajju se barhne lagi. Ek mahine ke andar, Fed ne market mein itne bonds khareed liye the jitne puri pichli period mein mila kar khareeda gaya tha. December tak, volumes $2 trillion se zyada ho gaye thay. Shuruwat mein yeh samjha jata tha ke yeh plan temporary hai aur Fed pehli muka per pre-crisis status quo restore karegi. Lekin yeh hua nahi: kuch attempts balance ko kam karne ke unsuccessful thay aur phir risk lena band kar diya gaya. Mid-twenties tak, QE khareedhe gaye bonds ka volume stable ho gaya tha, around $4-5 trillion ke aas-pass, aur jab U.S. economic growth dobara shuru hui, toh socha gaya ke in "reserves" ko dheere dheere kam kiya jaye. By fall of 2019, woh sach mein $3.8 trillion tak gir gaya tha. Lekin phir pandemic hua, aur kuch mahino mein, balance dobara double ho gaya, iss baar $9 trillion ke qareeb pahunch gaya (40% U.S. GDP se zyada).
Sirf inflation ko 40 saal ke record highs tak barhne par saval uttha. Fed ne tezi se rate barhane ka shoruaat kiya takay tez prices ko roka ja sake. Lekin is duran, "thinning" of balance sheet ko bhi ensure karna zaroori tha. Is process ko "quantitative tightening" (QT) kaha gaya - QE ke opposite. Yahan ka concept yeh hai ke jab bonds sell off hote hain, toh supply demand ko peechay chhodne lagti hai, aur securities ki rates bharhne lagti hain. Is natije mein, woh economy bhar mein barhne lagti hain. Companies aur consumers, higher rates ka samna karte hain, debt mein kam dilchaspi lete hain, iske baad money turnover shrink hoti hai aur economy thandi ho jati hai.
Technically yeh is tarah se dikha: Fed apne books par jo bonds thay, unhe bech rahe thay ya phir unka wait kar rahe thay takay mature ho jayen. Financial market point of view se, in actions mein kuch farq nahi hota. Iss rate se, ek saal ke andar, balance sheet kuch trillion dollars tak kam ho jata.
Yahan U.S. central bankers ko kisi ne bhi predict nahi kar saka tha ke consequences kya honge - pata chala ke securities ko dump karne ke liye market mein zyada liquidity nahi hai "digest" karne ke liye. Is tarah ka pehla bell 2020 mein, pandemic ke shuruat mein baji thi. Tab market asal mein "tut gaya," aur investors ne mass mein bonds ko sell off karna shuru kar diya, cash tak pahunchne ke liye. Fed ko interfere karna pada, apne status ko dikhate hue ke woh "buyer of last resort" hain. Situation ab bhi similar hai, waise bhi (ab tak) itni acute nahi hai. Market ki depth ek dum se lowest levels mein hai, jabke past 20 saal mein bonds ke volume ne lagbhag panch guna badh gaya hai. Yeh sabse shant aur stable financial market segment mein be misal volatility ka sabab banta hai. Yeh volatility, in turn, liquidity ko aur kam kar deti hai, aik vicious circle banate hue.
Liquidity ki kami khaas tor par purani bonds mein zahir hoti hai, jo ke circulation mein ke zyadatar securities banate hain, lekin daily trading volume ka sirf 25 percent hote hain. Aam taur par, new issuances already premium par sell hoti hain, lekin market turmoil ke dauran, yeh premium zyada ho sakti hai. Yeh ab 2015 se zyada hai.
Kya High Inflation Ko Avoid Karne Ka Koi Chance Tha?
Yeh levels of inflation avoidable thay. Agar hum inflation ke barhne ke chronology ko trace karte hain, toh 2% level jo ke Fed ka target hota hai, woh toh pehle hi March 2021 mein exceed ho gaya tha. Fir April mein inflation rate already 4% ke upar tha aur uske baad se kabhi bhi us level se neeche nahi gaya. Lekin yeh clearly Fed ko pareshan nahi kiya tha, jo us waqt inflation ke barhne ko "temporary phenomenon" ke roop mein interpret kar rahi thi aur koi active measures nahi li gayin. Sirf November 2021 mein, asset purchases kam karne ka shoruaat hua, lekin program phir bhi iss saal ke March tak chalta raha.
Fed rate barhane mein bhi kisi meherbani mei nahi tha. Iss tarah, apne actions mein woh obviously late thi aur advance mein inflation ke barhne ko rok nahi sakti thi. Rokna tha, rukana nahi tha. Masla yeh hai ke Fed ke pass short term mein cost inflation ke liye effective tools nahi hain. Jo tools hain, woh cost inflation ko indirectly, direct nahi, affect karte hain, jaise ke money supply inflation ke case mein hota hai.
Current inflation ko kam karna asaan aur mushkil dono hai. Costs ke barhne ko rokna zaroori hai. Yeh achieve kiya ja sakta hai, khaas kar ke commodity prices ko kam kar ke, jo supply-demand ratio ke basis par set hoti hain, lekin is waqt ke environment mein supply volume ko tezi se badhana impossible hai - bohot se commodities ke liye impossible hai. Is accordingly, ek hi possible option hai, demand ko kam karna. Is tarah, pandemic ke doran demand kam hone ne inflation ko tez nahi hone diya. Ab, jese hi ajeeb ho sakti hai, inflation ke barhne khud demand ko kam karne mein madad karegi.
Develope hui countries ke liye, inflation jo ke 2% ke qareeb normal samjha jata hai aur ek sehatmand economy mein tangdasti nahi dalta. Haan ke wages inflation ke saath barh sakti hain, lekin in dono indicators ke amplitude barabar nahi badhti. Wages aksar kam aur zyadatar waqt ke dair se badhti hain. Yeh is bat ko follow karta hai ke jab income wahi rehti hai aur goods aur services ke prices badh jate hain, toh citizens kam consume karna shuru karte hain, doosri zaroorat ki goods aur services se inkaar kar dete hain. Halat is liye bura hota hai agar labor market kamzor hone lagta hai - unemployment ka barhna aggregate income ko aur kam kar deta hai.
Ab tak U.S. labor market stable hai, lekin kuch companies mein hiring freezes aur layoffs shuru ho gaye hain. Businesses apni economy ko bhi bigarne se bachane ke liye cost kat rahe hain. Note karein ke U.S. economy ke liye consumption bohot important hai kyunki consumer spending approximately country ke GDP ka 2/3 hissa hai. Is natije mein, yeh GDP growth mein slowdown la kar aage badhta hai aur phir GDP mein giravat aati hai. Phir, jab prices kam ho jate hain aur wages barh jate hain, demand badhna shuru hoti hai, jese ke economy as a whole. Is tarah, economic growth ke liye economy ko slow down hone ki zarurat hai. Yehi wajah hai ke economic theory textbooks mein likha gaya hai ke economy cyclical hoti hai.
Higher rates ne turant inflation rate par asar nahi dalte, lekin waqt ke saath asar dalte hain. Asar credit ke availability ke zariye hota hai. Higher credit costs credit ke liye kam demand ke lead karte hain, jo ke turn mein goods aur services ke liye weak overall demand ka natija hota hai.
Also, tight monetary policy stock market par bhi pressure dalta hai, jo ke investor wealth ko kam karta hai. Jab aap apne investments kam karte hain, toh wealth effect on hota hai - aur aap kam kharch karna shuru karte hain. Pichle saalon mein, yeh effect ulta kam kar raha tha. U.S. stock market ke rise ke bajaye, investment portfolio badh raha tha, log zyada kharch kar rahe thay aur kam bachat kar rahe thay. Is ka saboot relatively low savings rate ke zariye milta hai. Ab yehi effect ulta kam karega aur dheere dheere consumption mein bhi kamai dega.
High Inflation se Aap Kaise Benifits Hasil Kar Sakte Hain?
Tight monetary policy ke bawajood, kuch sectors hai jo resistance dikhate hain. Health sector unme se aik hai. Agar consumption kam ho raha hai, toh pehle toh non-essential goods ko reject kia jayega, lekin life-saving medicines ko nahi, is liye historically, yeh sector times of high inflation aur economic slowdown mein relatively positive dynamics dikhata hai. Lekin companies jo ke positive cash flow aur pehle se approved drugs ke sath hain, unko prefer karna chahiye. Is sector ko ek aur driver mil sakta hai, mergers and acquisitions ke barhne se.
Phir bhi, biotech companies mein invest karne ke risks kaafi high hote hain, is liye diversification ko bhoolna nahi chahiye. Upar diye gaye sector sirf wohi nahi hai jo ke is waqt attractive nazar aata hai. Lekin uncertainty ke doran, market index ke bajaye individual companies mein invest karna behtar hai. Aam taur par, positive cash flow, low debt burden, aur current environment mein business stability wale players ko choose karna chahiye.
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