Elliott Waves

FOREX ME ELLIOT WAVES:-

Forex market mein Elliott Waves ek technical analysis tool hain, jo market trends ko predict karne aur samjhne ke liye istemal hoti hain. Elliott Waves theory ko Ralph Nelson Elliott ne 1930s mein develop kiya tha. Ye theory kehta hai ki financial markets mein price action, repetitive patterns mein move karte hain, jo ki ek specific sequence follow karte hain.






FOREX ME ELLIOT WAVES K ELEMENTS:-

1. Wave Principle: Is theory ke anusaar, market price ek specific sequence mein move karte hain. Is sequence ko 5 impulsive waves (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) aur 3 corrective waves (a, b, c) mein baanta jata hai. Impulsive waves trend ke direction mein move karte hain, jabki corrective waves counter-trend moves hote hain.
2. Fibonacci Ratios: Elliott Waves theory mein Fibonacci retracement levels ka bhi istemal hota hai. Ye levels market ke reversals ko predict karne mein madad karte hain.

Elliott Waves theory ki madad se traders market trend ko analyze karte hain aur potential entry aur exit points ko identify karte hain. Is theory ke anusaar, market mein ek grand supercycle se lekar choti si microcycle tak kayi tarah ke waves hote hain, aur in waves ko samjhkar traders market ka future direction predict kar sakte hain.

Dhyan rahe ki Elliott Waves theory ek complex theory hai, aur iska istemal karne ke liye acchi understanding aur practice ki zarurat hoti hai. Is theory ko samjhne mein samay lag sakta hai, isliye traders ko ispar kaam karne se pehle achhi tarah se tayari aur practice karni chahiye.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Elliott Waves Trading Strategy

Technical analysis aur uski nazriyaati framework humein yeh sikhate hain ke tareekh apne apko dohrati hai. Isi liye hum technical analysis mein baar baar hone wale waqiyat ko cycles ya patterns ke tor par samajhte hain.


Kya trader psychology is patterns mein kirdar ada karta hai? Umeed aur pareshani trader ke mamooli jazbat hote hain, aur yeh aksar ek 'herd' ko utpann karta hai jo din-ba-din makro-iqtisadi waqiyat ka rad-e-amal karta hai.


Asal mein, 1920 ke darmiyan, muhasib aur musannif Ralph Nelson Elliott ne yeh pehchaan ki ke traders ki jama'at psychology ya mass psychology alag alag securities ke market prices par asar andaz hoti hai.


Unka nazriya, Elliott Wave Theory, yeh kehta hai ke trader psychology (ya "waves") ke upar neeche aane ka seedha taluq upar neeche jaane wale price swings se hota hai. Dosron alfaz mein, traders ki mass psychology mein tabdiliyan market prices par asar andaz hoti hain jo ke pehchani ja sakti hain.


Yad rakhein ke yeh nazriya koi mukammal ya sabit shuda tareeqa nahi hai. Patterns ki taabeer kholne wale hain, aur alag analysts ek hi data par mukhtalif natayej par pohoch sakte hain. Traders mukammal data par mushtamil tareeqa istemal karne ko pasand kar sakte hain market analysis ke liye.


Magar, jab traders apni analysis kar chuke hain, to kuch yeh tareeqa istemal kar sakte hain signals ko tasdeeq karne ke liye jo woh pohochte hain.

Impulsive aur Corrective Waves

Elliott Wave Theory ke mutabiq, market prices paanch waves mein chalti hain wahi rukh ko jo main trend hai, aur unke saath teen waves jo ke mukhtalif trend ke khilaf chalay jaate hain. Ibtidaai paanch waves impulsive dominant trend banate hain, jabke agle teen waves net corrective countertrend banate hain.
Elliott waves: 3 bullish waves (1, 3, aur 5) aur 2 bearish corrective waves (2 aur 4). Do bearish waves ke baad (A aur C) ke saath bullish corrective (B).
Yahan, 3 bullish waves (Waves 1, 3, aur 5) aur 2 bearish waves (Waves 2, 4) impulsive net upward trend ko banate hain.


Iske baad 2 bearish waves (Waves A aur C) ke saath un ke darmiyan bullish wave (Wave B) ko shamil karke, downward correction banate hain.

Waves Nikalne Ke Liye Parameters Kya Hain?

Fibonacci sequence ek aise silsile ka naam hai jahan har number peechle do numbers ka jama hota hai, shuru hota hai 0 aur 1 se. Yeh Fibonacci retracement ka bunyadi tareeqa banata hai jo ke Elliott Wave structure ke andar waves ki potenshal lambai ko naapne mein madad kar sakta hai.


Fibonacci retracements ke mutaliq mazeed maloomat hasil karne ke liye hamara mukammal rehnumai dekhein.

• Misal 1: Impulsive tranche ko samajhna
  • Impulsive tranche ko samajhna
    Wave 1: Yeh ek bullish leg hai. Chart analysis ki madad zaroori hai, kyun ke breakouts pehli nishaniyan hoti hain ke ek Elliott wave ban raha hai, doosri nishani hai ke trend reversal breakout ke baad hota hai. Jab yeh hota hai, hum ek shadeed correction ki tawaqqa kar sakte hain jo ke 50% se zyada (Fibonacci retracement ke mutabiq) hoti hai.
  • Double bottom aur trend breakout
    • Wave 2: Yeh Wave 1 ka correction hai. Humein kam az kam 61.8% aur zyada se zyada 76.4% ka pullback tawaqqa hota hai (Fibonacci retracement ke mutabiq).
      Wave 2 61.8% ya 76.4% tak retrace karta hai
    • Wave 3: Jab agli wave banegi, agar yeh Wave 1 ke lambai ko guzar jaaye, to yeh ek aur Elliott Wave banne ki mumkin tawaqqa hai. Is naye Wave 3 ka ek kam az kam projection hota hai 161.8% (Fibonacci extension ke mutabiq) Wave 2 ka. Ek amm qawaid ke mutabiq, Wave 3 amoman sab se mazboot impulsive waves hoti hai, kabhi bhi doosre dono waves se kam nahi hoti.
      Wave 3 Wave 1 ko guzar jaata hai aur uska projection +161.8%
    • Wave 4: Yeh wave Wave 3 ka correction hai. Aham qawaid ki ek ye ke wave 1 ke high se zyada pullback ko gina jaata hai. Yeh aam tor par behavior mein sab se be-ithad hoti hai waves mein, kyun ke yeh Wave 3 ke sath jo retracement signal kar sakti hai, us ke aas paas hoti hai, 38% (Fibonacci retracement ke mutabiq) ya phir bhi 23% par manzoor hoti hai.
      
      
      Wave 4 Wave 1 ke chhat se niche nahi jaata hai
    • Wave 5: Wave 5 Wave 3 ko guzar jaata hai. Key yeh hai ke iska projection Wave 4 ka 161.8% aur Wave 1 ke barabar hota hai. Iska ek ahem khasiyat yeh hai ke ismein trade volume ka aik bara izafa hota hai, jo ke aam tor par aik baray izafa ke sath nahi hota.
      Wave 5 Wave 1 ke barabar +161.8%
• Misal 2: Corrective tranche ko samajhna
  
  
  Beshak, yeh woh jagah hai jahan bohot se traders jung haar jaate hain, jahan teen waves mukhtalif rukh mein mukhtalif rukh ke khilaf mein ek zig-zag corrective countertrend mein hoti hain.
  • Wave A: Yeh Wave 5 ke ikhtitaam se shuru hoti hai. Yeh Wave 4 ke highs ko aam tor par paar nahi karti hai magar Wave 3 ke aas paas hoti hai.
  • Wave B: Yeh Wave A ka correction hai, normal tor par 50-62% tak qaraar diya jaata hai aur kabhi bhi 75% se zyada nahi hota.
  • Wave C: Yeh Wave A ke barabar lambai hoti hai. Yeh Wave B ka 150 se 161.8% ya phir Wave B ka 261.8% extreme case mein hota hai.

Elliott Wave Theory Ke Sath Indicator ka Istemal

Elliott waves bohot se traders ke liye ek bohot madadgar aala hai. Magar yeh zaroori hai ke yeh koi sabit theory nahi hai. Balkay, yeh doosre technical indicators ke saath istemal kiye ja sakte hain entry aur exit points ko pehchanne ke liye. Is case mein, yeh waves trend ko pehchanne ke bajaye tasdeeqi patterns ke tor par zyada qaraar diye ja sakte hain.


Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Elliott Wave analysis ke saath pair karne ke liye sab se popular indicators mein se ek hai aur shuruaati traders ke liye khaas tor par madadgar hai. Yeh humein rukh mein tabdeeliyon ko pehchanne aur waves ko parhne mein madad karta hai ke bullish ya bearish pattern ka aghaz tasdeeq kiya ja sakta hai.


Relative Strength Index (RSI) Elliott Wave Theory ke saath istemal ke liye doosra indicator hai kyun ke yeh trend ki taqat ko naapne aur potenshal reversals ko pehchanne mein madadgar hai.


Aakhir mein, yad rakhein ke har tajziati approach apne apne istemal ke liye hai, aur koi bhi kisi qisam ki koi bhi guarantee faraham nahi karta. Isliye, robust risk management principles par trading faisley lijiye, aur apne tareeqe ko test karne ke liye demo accounts jaise tools ka istemal karein.

Elliott Wave Theory K Advantages

Elliott Wave Theory, jo ke Ralph Nelson Elliott ne tajweez kiya tha, financial markets ke price movements ko samajne ka ek tareeqa hai. Is theory ke mutabiq, market ke prices fractal wave patterns mein move karte hain jo ke bar-bar repeat hote hain. Yeh patterns investor psychology aur mass behavior ke asar ko reflect karte hain.

• Prediction: Elliott Wave Theory traders ko market trends ki prediction mein madad karta hai. Is se traders ko future price movements ke bare mein andaza ho sakta hai, jo ke trading decisions mein madadgar sabit hota hai.
• Structure: Yeh theory market ko ek structured framework mein dekhti hai, jis se traders ko complex price movements ko samajhne mein asani hoti hai.
• Fractal Nature: Is theory ka fractal nature traders ko choti aur badi dono time frames par patterns ko identify karne ki sahulat deta hai.
• Fibonacci Retracements: Elliott Wave Theory mein Fibonacci retracements ka istemal hota hai, jo ke support aur resistance levels ko find karne mein madad karta hai.
• Risk Management: Is theory ki madad se traders apne risk ko manage kar sakte hain aur better stop loss points set kar sakte hain.

Bawajood in kamzoriyon ke, Elliott Wave Theory ko financial markets mein ek mazboot analytical tool ke tor par dekha jata hai. Is ki madad se traders aur analysts market patterns ko pehchan sakte hain aur future price movements ke bare mein educated guesses kar sakte hain. Yeh theory especially un traders ke liye faida mand hai jo long-term investment aur trading strategies par focus karte hain.


Yeh theory market ke psychological aspects ko bhi highlight karti hai, jaise ke investor sentiment aur crowd behavior, jo ke price movements ko influence karte hain. Is tarah, Elliott Wave Theory na sirf technical analysis mein, balki behavioral finance mein bhi ahem kirdar ada karti hai.


Yeh kehna munasib hoga ke Elliott Wave Theory ke fawaid us ke complexities aur challenges se zyada hain, agar trader isay sahi tareeqe se apply kare to. Yeh theory traders ko market ke deeper insights provide karti hai aur unhen better trading decisions lene mein madad karti hai.

Elliott Wave Theory Disadvantages

Elliott Wave Theory ke nuqsanat ko samajhna traders aur investors ke liye zaroori hai taake woh is theory ke istemal mein hoshiyar rahein. Yeh theory market ke price movements ko predict karne ke liye waves ke patterns ka istemal karti hai, lekin iske kuch aham nuqsanat bhi hain.

• Pechidaai: Elliott Wave Theory kafi pechida hai aur isay samajhne ke liye gehri study aur practice ki zarurat hoti hai. New traders ke liye isay seekhna aur apply karna mushkil ho sakta hai.
• Subjectivity: Is theory mein subjective interpretation ka masla hota hai. Alag-alag traders ko waves ki ginti aur unke patterns mein farq nazar aata hai, jo ke consistent results ki kami ko janam deta hai.
• Waqt Talab: Elliott Wave Theory ke mutabiq wave counting aur analysis mein kafi waqt lag sakta hai, jo ke fast-paced markets mein nuqsan deh ho sakta hai.
• Over-Reliance: Kuch traders is theory par zyada inhasar kar lete hain aur market ke dusre important signals ko nazarandaz kar dete hain.
• Historical Data Ki Zarurat: Is theory ke liye historical price data ki zarurat hoti hai, jo ke hamesha traders ke liye dastiyab nahi hota.
• Market Conditions: Kabhi-kabhi market conditions itni unpredictable hoti hain ke Elliott Wave Theory ke predictions galat sabit hoti hain.
• Psychological Pressure: Traders par psychological pressure hota hai jab wave patterns ki prediction galat hoti hai, jo ke unke decision-making ko negatively affect kar sakta hai.
• Complex Corrections: Elliott Wave Theory mein complex corrections ko samajhna aur predict karna bhi ek challenge hai.
• Updates Ki Zarurat: Market dynamics badalte rehte hain, aur Elliott Wave Theory ko bhi waqt ke sath update karna parta hai, jo ke har kisi ke liye mumkin nahi hota.

Bawajood in nuqsanat ke, agar Elliott Wave Theory ko sahi tareeqe se samjha aur istemal kiya jaye to yeh traders aur analysts ke liye ek mufeed tool sabit ho sakta hai. Lekin, isay blindly follow karne ki bajaye, isay market ke dusre tools aur analysis ke sath mila kar istemal karna chahiye. Is tarah, traders apne risk ko kam kar sakte hain aur zyada balanced aur informed trading decisions le sakte hain.


Yeh kehna munasib hoga ke Elliott Wave Theory ke nuqsanat ko samajhna aur unka sahi tareeqe se management karna traders ke liye unki trading strategy mein ek ahem hissa hai. Is se woh zyada effective aur profitable decisions le sakte hain aur market ke unpredictability se behtar tareeqe se nipat sakte hain.