Volume Spread Analysis trend prediction and trading Techniques.

Volume Spread Analysis trend prediction and trading Techniques.

Volume Spread Analysis. Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) ek technical analysis ka hissa hai jo market trend aur price movement ki samajh ke liye istemal kiya jata hai. VSA ka concept yeh hai ke market ka volume aur price ke beech ki correlation ko samajhne se traders ko market ki direction aur future movement ka idea mil jata hai. Volume Spread Analysis Purpose. Volume Spread Analysis ka matlab hai ke jab market mein volume badhta hai aur price bhi sath mein barhta hai to ye bullish trend ke liye signal hai. Jab market mein volume ghat'ta hai aur price sath mein girne lagta hai to ye bearish trend ke liye signal hai. Volume Spread Analysis Implementation. Volume Spread Analysis ke upyog se traders market ki direction aur trend ka idea le sakte hai. VSA traders ko market ki buying aur selling pressure, accumulation aur distribution, aur price ke movement ki samajh deta hai. Volume Spread Analysis Method. VSA ke tareeqe mein traders volume aur price ke beech ki correlation ko samajhte hai. Yeh analysis price chart ke saath volume bars ke istemal se kiya jata hai. Jab price bar ke saath volume bar bhi badhta hai to ye bullish trend ke liye signal hai aur jab price bar ke saath volume bar ghat'ta hai to ye bearish trend ke liye signal hai. Volume Spread Analysis Importance. Volume Spread Analysis ki ahmiyat yeh hai ke iske istemal se traders market ke trend aur direction ka idea le sakte hai aur unhe buying aur selling ke liye entry aur exit points ka pata chal jata hai. VSA traders ko market mein profit karne ke liye sahi direction aur trend ka idea deta hai. Volume Spread Analysis ek important technical analysis tool hai jiska istemal traders market ki samajhne ke liye karte hai. VSA ke through traders ko market ke trend aur direction ka idea mil jata hai aur unhe buying aur selling ke liye sahi entry aur exit points ka pata chal jata hai.

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VSA In Forex Trading

Tick volumes aam taur par VSA analysis ke liye sabse asaan option hain. Zyadatar forex traders technical aur fundamental analysis ke saath waqif hote hain. In do tareeqon ko forex market ko study karne ke liye istemal karne ka kai tareeqay hain. Aam tor par, fundamental analysis market movement ke asbab ko explore karti hai, jabke technical analysis ye maloom karta hai ke movement kab hoga.
Lekin stocks aur currency markets mein prices ki analysis ke liye ek mukhtalif approach bhi mumkin hai. In theory mein, yeh methodology do options ke mukhtalif ko combine kar ke "why" aur "when" dono ko hal karne ka maqsad hai. Yeh hai VSA forex mein, yaani volume variance analysis.



VSA (Volume Spread Analysis)
VSA (Volume Spread Analysis) ek proprietary market analysis method hai jo opening/closing price range aur trading volume ke darmiyan ke ta'alluqat par nazar dalta hai. VSA ko forex market mein total trading volume ke saath ek bar/candle ke high aur low ke darmiyan fasla mawafiq ho sakta hai.
Is tarah, ek trader koshish karta hai ke market ke major players (professional traders, institutions, banks, aur doosre market makers) ke dwara paida kiye gaye supply aur demand ke farq ko samajh sake. Agar aap unke actions ko durust taur par interpret karne mein mahir hain, to yeh aapko market mein dakhil hone ke liye achhe signals dega.

VSA Ka Mukhtasar Historical Pas-e-Manzar

VSA Richard D. Wyckoff ke kaam ka evolution extension hai, jo ne 1888 mein 15 saal ki umar mein stocks trading start ki thi. 1910s mein, Wyckoff ne apne kaam ko ek financial weekly mein publish kiya tha jo 200,000 copies bechta tha aur ye concept public domain ban gaya tha.
Beeswin sadi ke aakhir mein, Tom Williams ne Wyckoff ke research ko improve kiya aur apni apni methodology develop ki. Unhone apne book "Market Masters" mein price differences (spreads) ke volumes aur closing prices ke sath ta'alluqat ki ahmiyat ko mention kiya. Tick volumes are one of the simplest options for VSA analysis
VSA ke development mein teen landmark figures hain:

• Jesse Lauriston Livermore;
• Richard Demille Wyckoff;
• Tom Williams.

Livermore ne volume data ka pehle istemal karke analyze karne ka tajziya karna shuru kiya tha. Lekin is trading method ke asal banane wale nahi the. Is ka main hissa kisi aur ne diya tha — Wyckoff ne.
Unki trading mein academic approach tha. Unhe taleem ka shauq tha aur unhon ne apne trading methods ko develop karne ke liye ideas ko tajziya karne ke liye kisi bhi source ka istemal kiya. Khaas karke, unhon ne leading traders se khud mulaqat ki aur unse interview liya. Ek aise interviewee Livermore tha jinhon ne volumes par apne khayalat bayan kiye, jin se Wyckoff ne VSA concept ke basic usoolon ko nikala.
Lekin na to Livermore ne aur na hi Wyckoff ne Volume Spread Analysis ke combination ka istemal kiya. Is par to Williams ne apni research par mabni methods ke liye is term ka istemal kiya. Williams ki books aur computer software ne VSA ko forex traders ke darmiyan market volumes ko analyze karne ke liye ek taqatwar tool ke taur par promote kiya aur ye concept classic analysis variants ka ek alternative ban gaya.
Supply aur demand ke darmiyan balance ka analysis karne ke liye VSA forex chart par teen variables ke interaction ko dekhta hai takay market ke short-term direction ko pehchane ja sake.

Yeh variables hain:

• Candle/price bar volume;
• Session ke liye total price change (highs aur lows);
• Closing price.

In teeno pieces of information ka istemal karke, ek mahir trader forex mein behtareen dakhil points nikalega. Volume ka ehmiyat aur zaruriyat zyadatar naye traders ke liye behtar taur par samajhi gayi nahi hai, lekin ye technical chart analysis ka ek bohot zaruri hissa hai.
Wall Street ko aik price chart ko volume ke bina ek gas tank ke bina maan ne mei pasand hai. Volume ek hissa deta hai aur doosra hissa price difference ko study karke milta hai.

VSA Kaise & Kahan Kaam Karta Hai?

Har market (forex is an exception) supply aur demand ke mutabiq move karta hai jo professional players (jo ke professional traders, institutions, banks, aur doosre market makers hote hain) ke dwara create hota hai. Agar demand supply se zyada hai, to market upar jaata hai. Agar supply demand se zyada hai, to market neeche jaata hai. Ye simple lagta hai, lekin amal mein, financial markets ko calculate karna aasan nahi hota. Supply aur demand financial markets mein alag taur par kaam karte hain.
VSA ye sikhata hai ke market strength ko bearish candle mein padha ja sakta hai, ulte, market weakness ko bullish candle mein padha ja sakta hai. Professional aur institutional investors forex mein aksar aur large volumes mein trade karte hain.
Unke khareed o farokht ko chart par bullish aur bearish candles ke sath ek large range ke zariye represent kiya jata hai. Closing price, overall price range, aur trading volume ko compare karke traders ye determine karte hain ke bulls/bears ne support/resistance lines ko tor diya hai aur agar is momentum mein itni taqat hai ke trend ko reverse kare.
VSA price aur volume par focus karta hai aur professionals ke actions ko track karne ki taraf rahe hai. Is liye, jahan achi turnover aur market makers hain, wahan VSA trading concept valid rehta hai.
Lagbhag tamam financial markets (stocks, futures, forex) nominal tor par in requirements ko meet karte hain. Lekin forex market mein volume ek mushkil quantity hai. Traders is par bahas karte hain ke VSA forex market mein istemal ho sakta hai ya nahi.
Wajah ye hai ke foreign exchange market decentralized hai, stock market ke opposite. Is natije mein haqeeqi volumes dastiyab nahi hoti. Lekin hum bas har bar aur candlestick ki volumes ko analyze kar sakte hain. Yeh forex trading mein kaafi achha kaam karta hai.

VSA Ke Concepts

Aam tor par, volume allocation analysis ek trading soch ka ek school hai jo samajhne ke liye volumes ko price movements mei kya asarat hain, isme volume ke crucial role ki pesh karti hai. Is tarah se VSA ke paanch basic concepts emerge hote hain:

• Technical analysis Complete Nahi hai.
  Technical analysis ke favor mein ye baat hai ke price pehle hi sab kuch ko discount karta hai. Lekin market ko sirf price se padhna kafi nahi hai. Markets primarily supply aur demand par depend karte hain, jo ke inke final participants ke psychology par depend karte hain. Is liye volume analysis prices ko kaise supply aur demand par asar daal raha hai samajhne ke liye ek achha tareeqa hai.
• Ye sab perceived value ke baare mein hai, haqeeqi value ke nahi.
  Fundamental analysis ye kehti hai ke hum hamesha ek asset ki haqeeqi value ko samajh sakte hain financial instrument ki intrinsic value ko dekhtay hue - stocks, currencies, commodities, waghera. Volume traders ye kehte hain ke hume markets mei jo ho raha hai, usko samajhne ke liye hume perceived value se shuruat karni chahiye. Haqeeqi value nahi, balki ye ke bulls aur bears isay is waqt kaise dekhte hain, kyunke traders hamesha companies ko unki book value se upar value karte hain, fundamental analysis ke ilawa doosre types ke analysis ko mad e nazar rakhte hue.
• Price aur volume dono interrelated hain.
  Past prices financial markets ke movements ko samajhne ke liye ek important hissa hain. Lekin price analysis kafi nahi hai. VSA ke proponents ye kehte hain ke ye zaroori hai ke samjha jaye ke capital ab kahan hai aur hume isay kab zarurat hogi. Volume market ki "bhook" ya "saturation" ko determine karta hai, jo ke price impulses ki strength aur direction ko affect karta hai.
• Har movement ki cause volume hai.
  Humne fundamental aur technical analysis ko financial markets mei hone wale movements ka ek hi wazeha asbab samajhna to chor diya hai. VSA ye sujhaata hai ke price movement ko volume ke saath dekha jaye to isay samajhne ka asal sabab milta hai. Jaise ke, market ya koi individual issuer ki performance kitni bhi achi lag rahi ho, agar trading volumes lambay waqt tak peak par rah gaye hain, to hume ek aane wala slack ya reversal ka intezar hai.
• Different traders mei forex mei alag roles hote hain.
  Is concept ki bunyad idea hai ke alag qisam ke traders alag qisam ke malumat rakhte hain. Is idea par apni trading strategy rakhne ke liye aap more accurate predictions kar sakte hain.
  VSA teesri qisam ke traders ko define karta hai:
  • Retail;
  • Commercial;
  • Professional.
  
  
  Retail traders woh hote hain jo chhote accounts rakhte hain aur casual taur par trade karte hain. Commercial traders investment banks hote hain jinki zimmedari market mein customer ki zarooriyaat ko pura karne ke liye orders place karna hota hai.

Professional traders qualified investors hote hain jo jeetne ki koshish karte hain aur zyadatar hamesha market se thoda sa peechay rehne ki koshish karte hain taake woh ek stable trend mein ja sakein. Ke kon sa type abhi haal mein weather bana raha hai, isay calculate karke ek trader forex mei future price movements ke liye zyada sahi ho sakta hai.

VSA Advantages & Disadvantages

• VSA ke forex trading ke Advantages:
  • Kisi bhi market ke liye mawafiq hai: VSA sabhi markets ke liye mawafiq hai, jaise ke commodities, stocks, forex, waghera.
  • Karagarpan: Ye approach behavioral research mein sachmuch khas hai. Isse classical fundamental aur technical analysis ki hadon ko par kiya ja sakta hai.
  • Durusti: Volumes na sirf future trend ki taraf ishara nahi dete, balki iski taqat ke baare mein bhi malumat dete hain. Ye kaafi useful hai.
• VSA ke forex trading ke Disadvantages:
  • Wazehgi ki kami: Nazariye mein koi wazehi ke taur par mukhlis qawaneen nahi hain. Market strength aur weakness ka ek concept hai, lekin sab kuch kaafi ghair wazeh hai. Yeh beginners ke liye saaf nuksan hai. Isay samajhne ke liye demo account par kaafi waqt guzarna padta hai.
  • High-frequency trading ke liye bura hai: Chhote time frames mein, classic technical analysis zyada effective hoti hai.

VSA Trading ke Liye Signals

1. Upthrust Reversal Pattern:
   • Upthrust pattern concept ka istemal karne ka kanon hai. Ek uptrend pattern candlestick chart par ek bada uptrend candlestick super high volume ke saath dikhai de sakta hai, jiske baad ek neeche ki taraf movement hoti hai.
   • Aise anhoni candlesticks forex mein kaam hoti hain aur ye aggressive trading ke izharat ke saath juri hoti hain. Khaas karke, ye situations important news ke broadcast ke baad aksar hoti hain.
   • Upthrust movement ka pattern hone par ye signal bhejta hai ke bahut se traders ko reversal movement ka aghaz hone ka andaza hota hai.
2. Shakeout:
   • Shakeout ka term do words se mil kar bana hai — Shake aur Out. Is term ki tafseel ki zarurat nahi hai. Ye candlestick formations ke peechay hone wale asal amal ko reflect karta hai.
   • Bade forex players aksar Shakeout ka istemal karte hain taake promising bull market mein kamzor players ko bahar nikal sakein. Leverage ke saath margin par trade karte waqt unke duble deposits bas resulting ripples ke drawdown se nahi bacha ja sakta.
3. Level Attack:
   • Price chart par, ek pattern powerful candles ya bars ke saath hota hai jinme high volume hoti hai, jo current price patterns ko "break" karte hain.
   • Ye pattern, for example, sideways movement ke doran dekha ja sakta hai, jisse ke aap keh sakte hain ke consolidation period khatam hone wala hai. Mudda ye hai ke candle ko ek sachmuch strong level par break karna chahiye. Levels poori tarah se shakl le chuke hone chahiye.
4. Stopping Volume:
   • Forex market par ane wale trend change ka ane wala intezar ka pehla nishan. Aksar rapid growth ke background mein liquidity mein tezi se izafah hota hai, jo ki jald hi uncertainty aur volumes mein kami ke saath followed hota hai.
   • Forecasting ke liye important hai. Beginners ka ek bada ghalati hai ke woh trend ka mistaken continuation dekhte hain, reversal ko consolidation samajhte hain. Big players aise trick ke saath market ko manipulate kar sakte hain, stop-losses ko bari tadad mein girakar trading volume ko badal sakte hain. Savdhan rahein.
5. Demand/Supply Testing:
   • Isay kisi bhi trading instrument aur time frame par dekha ja sakta hai. Ye kaafi reliable indicator hai jo forex mein current halat ko dikhata hai.
   • Aise cases mein hum dekhte hain ke uptrend kisi hidden resistance level mein takraata hai, jismein bahut se sell orders attach kiye gaye the. Ek simple "squeeze" kaam nahi karta, is liye market accumulation stage ki taraf badhta hai.

VSA Istemal Karne Ke Liye Tips:

• VSA analysis ke khaasiyat is waqt hai ke aap forex mein exact data volumes par nahi le sakte. Phir bhi, hum aapko is par kuch tips de sakte hain:
• Price readings ko kai brokers se compare karen. Ye forex market ke liye average se kam nahi hona chahiye. Behtar hoga agar broker quotes nahi draw karta, balki sirf ek intermediary ke taur par kaam karta hai.
• Average volumes ke doran VSA ke sath ihtiyaat se pesh aayen. Consolidation periods mein accuracy peak periods ke mukablay kam hoti hai.
• Hamesha ek clear confirmation ka intezaar karen. Price ko alag se analyze karen volumes ke baghair.
• VSA stock market mein zyada accurate hota hai aur currency market mein kam ya kam mazboot hota hai. Is liye, alag instruments par yehi strategies alag tareeqon se kaam karti hain.

Conclusion

Yeh concept lagbhag 200 saal pehle ictefaqan invent hua tha, lekin volumes aaj bhi kisi bhi market ke liye (is mein forex bhi shaamil hai) ek qeemati indicator hain. Ye market analysis ke liye ek mukhtalif methodology offer karte hain. Volumes is liye bhi khatarnak hote hain kyunke unko un logon ke liye jo unke baare mein nahi jaante, ye confusing ho sakta hai.
Is liye, woh kahawat jo kehti hai ke do martaba napo, ek martaba kaato, usay follow karen. VSA ka concept seekhain aur ise apne forex trading mein daftar e aamal karen. Jaise hi aap volumes ke role ko price formation mein samajh lenge, aap tarraqi karna shuru karenge. Lekin ye raat bhar mein nahi hoga.