volatility indux se kea murad ha detail beyan karen ?

Volatility indux se kea murad ha detail beyan karen ?

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Volatility

Warren Buffett ne aik dafa kaha tha: "Market fluctuations (volatility) ko apna dost banayein dushman nahi." Jab bhi wo markets ke baare mein baat karte the, Buffett jo ke Sage of Omaha ke naam se bhi jaane jaate hain, shayad forex markets mein volatility ke baare mein baat kar rahe the. Market fluctuations sach mein aapke dost ban sakti hain jab aap global market mein forex trading karte hain. Lekin aapko ye jaanna zaroori hai ke aapko isko kaise istemal karna hai aur apne faide ke liye kaise kaam me lena hai.

Asaan alfaz mein, volatility assets ke price fluctuations ko refer karti hai. Ye ek muddat ke dauran opening aur closing prices ke darmiyan farq ko measure karti hai.

Misal ke taur par, agar ek currency pair 5-10 pips ke darmiyan fluctuate ho raha hai to ye ek aise pair se kam volatile hai jo 50-100 pips ke darmiyan fluctuate ho raha hai.

Agar aap dhyaan se dekhein to aap dekh sakte hain ke kuch currencies aur currency pairs doosron se zyada volatile hote hain. Aapne 'safe haven' ka lafz zaroor suna hoga jo kuch currencies jaise ke Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, aur US Dollar (ek had tak) ko refer karta hai.

Doosri taraf, emerging market aur exotic currency pairs jaise ke Turkish Lira, Mexican Peso, Indian Rupee, aur Thai Baht safe haven currencies se zyada volatile consider kiye jaate hain.

To, aapke trading style, strategy, aur trading preferences ke mutabiq, aap hamesha ek aisa currency pair dhoondh sakte hain jo aapke trading technique ke liye munasib ho. Jab kuch traders volatile markets ko pasand karte hain, to doosre unhi high volatility ke saath aane wale zyada risk ko pasand nahi karte.

Liquidity Kia hai?

Liquidity ye measure karta hai ke aap kitni jaldi/asani se koi cheez market mein khareed ya bech sakte hain. Agar aap 100 ounces gold khareedna chahte hain, to aik market participant ko hona chahiye jo ye quantity gold aapko bechne ke liye tayar ho.

Highly liquid instruments mein, ye koi masla nahi hai. Aap bina kisi mushkilat ke aik EUR/USD trade worth 10 Million kar sakte hain London market session ke dauran bhi aur market ko move kiye bina. Timing important hai bhaal ke, kyunke currencies kisi khas sessions ke dauran kam liquid ho sakti hain.

For example, agar aapne us EUR/USD trade ko execute karne ka faisla kiya close of U.S. trading aur Tokyo opening se pehle, to aapko ye mehsoos ho sakta hai ke liquidity itni achi nahi hai aur aapko apni expectations se zyada loss ho sakta hai.

Aam tor par, jitna zyada liquid aik trading instrument hai, utni hi kam volatility hoti hai, kyunke usko kisi khaas direction mein move karne ke liye zyada kuch chahiye hota hai. U.S. bond market ya EUR/USD currency pair ko aik direction mein significantly move karne ke liye, ek bade transaction ki zaroorat hoti hai.

Doosri taraf, ek emerging market currency jaise ke Mexican Peso ya South African Rand ko move karne ke liye kam effort chahiye hota hai. Ye currencies un khaason wajahon ki wajah se zyada volatile hoti hain.

Volatility markets mein kyun zaroori hai?

Warren Buffett phir se quote karte hain, unhone kaha: "Har waqt uncertain hai. 2007 mein bhi ye uncertain tha, hum bas nahi jaante the ke ye uncertain hai."

Asal baat ye hai ke uncertainty, volatility, fluctuations, ya jo bhi aap price movement range kehte hain - ye sab trading markets ka hissa hain.

Koi volatility ka matlab hai ke koi price movements nahi hain. Aur price movement ke bina, kisi bhi trading activity ko mumkin nahi kiya ja sakta.

Yaad rakhne wali baat ye hai ke markets ko efficiently operate karne ke liye aik mukarar level ka volatility zaroori hai. Traders ke liye challenge tab aata hai jab volatility bohot zyada ho jaati hai.

Aik forex trader ke taur par, aapko ye jaanna zaroori hai ke konse currencies doosron se zyada volatile hain aur kab volatility barh rahi hai.

Currency pairs ke market volatility ke causes kya hain?

Maujooda global markets ke nature ke madd e nazar - interconnected trades, information aur communication ka be-inteha flow, aur social media aur digital technology ka prevalance - market pundits ka kehna hai ke market volatility aaj ke daur mein har trader ke dimaag mein zyada hai, zyada kisi doosre waqt ke muqable mein.

Chaliye dekhte hain kuch aise factors jo volatility ka cause hote hain jo aapki forex trading ko mutasir kar sakte hain.

• Geopolitical factors
  Wars (military invasions), uprisings, riots, aur doosre civil unrest ke forms volatility ka aik major cause hote hain. Ye is liye hai ke jab tak market mein ek mukarar level ka volatility zaroori hai, ek lambe arse tak aur high level ka uncertainty (wars aur uprisings ke case mein) traders' sentiment aur market ke liye acha nahi hota.
• Trade wars
  Chahe wo US vs China ho, US vs Europe ho, ya koi aur region ya country, trade wars bhi markets mein volatility ko bharka sakte hain kyunke involved currencies ko kisi na kisi stage pe effect hoga.
• Monetary policies
  Central banks poore globe mein money flow ko manage karne mein ahem kirdar ada karte hain. Wo interest rate levels ke zariye circulation mein paisay ka amount regulate kar sakte hain. Ye koi hairat ki baat nahi ke har forex trader central bank decisions pe nazar rakhta hai - chahe wo US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Bank of Canada (BoC) ya Australian Reserve Bank (ARB) kyun na ho.
• Trader aur market sentiment
  Ye aik haqeeqat hai ke market movements un logon se hoti hain jo peeche hote hain. Traders aur investors around the world markets ko move karte hain. Aur prevailing sentiment - positive ya negative - ke mutabiq, market volatility fluctuate ho sakti hai.

Konse currency pairs sab se zyada volatile hain?

Kuch currency pairs aise hain jo doosron se zyada volatile hote hain. Check karein kuch sab se zyada volatile currency pairs neeche aur jaanein ke inhein bade fluctuations dekhne ki wajah kya hai.

• AUD/JPY
  AUD/JPY currency pair ek risk barometer ke tor par dekha jata hai. Australian Dollar ko risk-on currency maana jata hai, matlab ke jab risk appetite zyada hoti hai to demand mein aata hai. Doosri taraf, Japanese Yen aik traditional safe haven hai aur jab markets "risk-off" mode mein hote hain to bid catch karta hai. Ye AUD/JPY ko volatile currency pair banata hai - yani jab traders optimistic hote hain aur risk seekh rahe hote hain to ye rise karta hai aur jab traders risk-averse hote hain to ye gir jata hai.
• GBP/CAD
  British Pound cross rates major currencies ke darmiyan sab se zyada volatile hote hain. Canadian Dollar doosri "risk-on" currency hai aur oil price ke direction se zyada mutasir hota hai, kyunke Canada aik major oil producer hai. Agar markets "risk-off" mode mein move karte hain aur usi waqt oil prices gir rahe hote hain, to Canadian Dollar significant pressure mein aa sakta hai. Doosri taraf, ye currency waktan fawran fawran hai jab traders risk seekhte hain aur commodity prices bhi barh rahe hote hain.
• USD/TRY
  Turkish Lira kabhi kabhi significant price swings dekhta hai, jo geopolitics ke zariye lekin bhi desh ki central bank ki bebayun rehmat aur politics ke asar se driven hote hain.

Forex market volatility trading tips

Volatility ki inherent nature aur uske peeche wajahon ko jaan kar, aap isko apne faide ke liye kaise istemal kar sakte hain? Aap volatility ko apni forex trading mein kaise istemal kar sakte hain?

Agar aap Warren Buffett ke lafz ko maante hain aur market volatility ko apna dost samajhte hain dushman nahi, to zaroori hai ke kuch tareeqe honge jinse aap isko apne trading success ke liye kaam mein le sakte hain.[LIST][*] Use stop loss orders: Agar aap har forex trade ke liye ek stop loss level set karte hain, to aap apne aap ko kisi bhi market volatility ke khilaf extra protection dete hain.[*] Monitor the economic calendar: Agar aap economic calendar ko monitor karte hain aur major economic events aur decisions ko jaante hain jo markets ko move kar sakte hain, to aap volatility ko anticipate karne mein behtar position mein hote hain, kam az kam kisi had tak. Yaad rakhein ke volatility markets ka hissa hai, aapke liye challenge ye hai ke jab wo volatility aati hai to aap uske mutabiq kaise react karte hain.
Kuch traders un high-impact events ke dauran jo volatility ko zyada kar sakte hain, sidelines pe rehna pasand karte hain. Lekin kuch traders aise bhi hote hain jo in major events ke dauran price movements ka faida uthana chahte hain. Chahe aapka koi bhi preference ho, zaroori hai ke aap key events ko monitor aur track karein jo aapki trading ko mutasir kar sakte hain. Economic calendar ko kaise read karna hai iske baare mein aur key events ke baare mein update rehne ke liye zyada jaanein.[*] Limit your leverage: Aapko ab tak pata chal gaya hoga ke leverage ek double-edged sword ho sakta hai. Ye aapki jeet ko bada sakti hai aur aapke nuqsan ko bhi. Agar aap apni trades ke liye leverage ka amount limit karte hain, to aap already kuch risk management strategies apne paas rakh rahe hain.[LIST]

Volatility indicators ka istemal kya karen?

Market mein volatility ko analyze karne ke liye kuch technical indicators hain jo munasib hain. Neeche kuch common volatility indicators ko dekhein:

• Average True Range: Average true range indicator ko J. Welles Wilder Junior ne develop kiya tha. ATR aik "true range" calculate karta hai aur use ek 14-day exponential moving average ke tor par display karta hai. True range wo highest value hoti hai jo in teenon equations mein se kisi aik ki hai:
  • TR = Current day´s high - current day´s low
  • TR = Current day´s high - previous day´s close
  • TR = Previous day´s close - current day´s low
  
  
  Aik zyada ATR reading zyada volatility indicate karti hai.
• Bollinger Bands: Bollinger bands ko John Bollinger ne develop kiya tha. Ye volatility indicator ye dikhata hai ke prices high ya low hain relative basis pe. Bollinger bands teen lines se bante hain - lower, middle, aur upper bands. Middle band aik simple moving average hota hai. Upper aur lower bands MA ke dono sides pe position kiye jate hain aur wo 2 standard deviations above/below the MA calculate kiye jate hain. Bands ka narrowing low volatility ko indicate karta hai, jabke widening zyada volatility ki taraf ishara karta hai.

Conclusion

Volatility financial markets mein trading karte waqt jaanne ke liye ek ahem concept hai. Ye aik term hai jo investors ke beghair samjhe gae aur asal mein volatile markets kaise kaam karte hain. Is article ko parh kar, aap ab exactly jaante hain ke volatility kaise kaam karta hai aur kaise isko trading mein successful tareeqe se istemal kiya ja sakta hai!