crude oil;

Crude oil;

Assalam alaikum dear memebrs!umeed ha ap sb khairiat se hn gy or apki trading bhht achi jaa rhi ho ge. dear members aj ki es post main hum Crude oil ka technical analysis karen gy jo k 25 november thursday k lye valid ho ga. DAILY CHART ANALYSIS: Dear members us oil ka overall trend positive ha or us oil aik upward rising channel bnaty hovy oper jaa raha ha. laikin pichly aik hfty se us oil ka short term trend weak raha ha or us oil ki qemten nechy ai hain. nechy 75-76 ka area support zone ha js py us oil ny support li or kl wahan se opr gia 79 tk. jb k 79-80 ka area bhi resistance k tor py kam kar raha ha jesa k picture main dekha ja skta ha or abi us oil ko opr jany se rok raha ha. ag CL 79 ko break kr jata ha to to ye 82.18 tk jaa skta ha or ye bhi aik resiting area ha yahan py CL ko thori resistance ka samna ho ga or us k bad CL 85-90 to ja skta ha ho k longterm ka target ha. 4 Hour Chart Analysis: dear members 4 ghanty k chart main Crude oil pchly taqreeban aik hafty se aik downward resisting trend line ko follow kar raha tha jesa k picture main dekha jaa skta ha ye line CL ko opr ni jany dy rhi thi laikin kl CL ny es resisting trend line ka breakout kia. breakout k bad ho skta ha CL es line ko dobara test kary or nechy ay 77.5-76.5 tk jo k bes buyng zone ha. estraha breakout ki confirmation bhi ho jygi or achi entry bhi ml jygi. laikin agr abi jahan Py CL trade kar raha ha or yahen se opr jata ha to ap esy yahen se bhi huy kr skty hain. Es sorat main aap apna stop loss 75 jb k profit target 84 rkh skty hain. intraday resistance: Dear members 79.5 , 81 aj k din resistance k tor py kam karen gy intraday support:Dear members 77.5 , 76 aj k din support k tor py kaam karen gy. GOOD LUCK GUYS!

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Oil

Oil aik commodity hai, aur aik commodity wo cheez hoti hai jo kisi bhi faraham karne wale ke zarye se faraham ki gayi cheezon mein kisi bhi faraham karne wale ki cheezon mein kisi bhi farq ke kamiyat se nazar andaaz hoti hai. Ye kahna k oil modern global economy ke liye sab se ahem cheez hai, aur is liye, trader ke tor par, oil aur oil market ke aham features ko samajhna zaroori hai jab aap aik oil trading strategy ko jama karte hain aur investor ke tor par aik mukhtalif portfolio banate hain, taake zyada se zyada nafa hasil kiya ja sake.

Forex oil trading maamoolan derivatives ki madad se ki jati hai, jo ke oil ki keemat se apna maaloomat hasil karte hain. Traders ko physical commodity ka malik hone ki zarurat naheen hoti, lekin wo oil price ke tabadlaat se faida utha sakte hain.

• Derivatives Trading: Forex market mein oil trading primarily derivatives ke zariye ki jati hai, jo ke unki keemat se oil ki keemat hasil karte hain. Traders physical commodity ka malik na hokar bhi oil ke price changes se faida utha sakte hain.
• Benchmark Oils: Do mukhya benchmarks oil prices ke liye Brent aur West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hote hain. Brent oil North Sea se aata hai aur global benchmark ke tor par kaam karta hai, jabke WTI crude oil US ke fields se aata hai aur US oil consumption ke liye ek ahem benchmark hai.
• Trading Process: Traders FXTM jaise Forex brokers ke saath oil trading shuru kar sakte hain teen asaan steps mein: account kholna, expert oil analysis hasil karna, aur market analysis aur risk management strategies ke mutabiq trades place karna.
• Market Popularity: Crude oil ek bohot zyada traded commodity hai apni ahem role ke wajah se global economy mein, jisse commodities market mein opportunities dhoondne wale traders mein shumaar hota hai.
• Spot Prices: Oil spot prices abhi waqt ke liye oil khareedne ya bechne ka mojooda market level darust karte hain, jo ke mojooda market demand aur supply dynamics ko reflect karte hain.
• Trading Strategies: Traders mukhtalif strategies ka istemal kar sakte hain jaise breakout trading taake oil market ke price movements par faida utha sakein, positions ko historical support levels se breakout karke dakhil karne ke base par.

Forex oil trading derivatives jaise CFDs ka istemal karke oil ke price movements par tajziya karta hai, jahan Brent aur WTI global market mein oil prices ke liye mukhya benchmarks hote hain. Traders oil ke prices ke volatility ka faida utha kar market movements se potentially profit kamane ki koshish kar sakte hain.

Crude Oil Benchmarks

Crude oil benchmarks forex trading market mein ahem role ada karte hain kyunke wo crude oil aur uske derivatives ka trade karne ka reference point provide karte hain. Teen mukhya benchmarks hote hain West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent Blend, aur Dubai Crude, har ek specific grade aur location of crude oil ko represent karte hue.

Crude oil ek globally traded commodity hai jis ki bohot se mukhtalif varieties aur grades hoti hain, is liye benchmarks buyers aur sellers ke liye reference price provide karte hain.
Teen aham crude oil benchmarks hote hain West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent Blend, aur Dubai Crude.

• West Texas Intermediate (WTI):
  WTI America mein istemal hone wala mukhya benchmark hai, jo ke light, sweet crude oil ko represent karta hai jo US ke wells se nikala jata hai aur Cushing, Oklahoma tak transport hota hai.
  WTI typically dusre benchmarks ke muqable mein ek premium par trade hota hai uski high quality aur low-sulfur gasoline mein refine karne ki asani ke wajah se.
• Brent Blend:
  Brent Blend global mukhya benchmark hai, jo North Sea se 15 alag fields se nikale crude oil ka mix represent karta hai.
  Brent duniya bhar mein crude oil trades ka lagbhag 80% ka reference hai, kyunke ye high-quality, light, aur sweet crude hai jo ki transport mein asaan hota hai.
• Dubai Crude:
  Dubai Crude, ya Fateh, UAE mein nikala jane wala zyada heavy aur sour crude oil hai.
  Dubai Crude Asian market ke liye crude oil delivered karne ka mukhya benchmark hai.
• Digar Benchmarks:
  Digar regional benchmarks bhi hote hain jaise Edmonton Par aur Western Canadian Select (WCS) Canadian market ke liye, aur OPEC countries ke istemal ke liye OPEC Reference Basket.
• Benchmark Pricing:
  Crude oil prices hamesha supply aur demand dynamics ke mutabiq fluctuate karte hain, jahan benchmarks pricing aur trading ke reference points ke tor par kaam karte hain.
  Traders aur investors in benchmarks ke price movements par tajziya karke futures contracts aur options ka istemal karke profit kamane ki koshish kar sakte hain.

Crude oil benchmarks jaise WTI, Brent, aur Dubai crude global forex market mein crude oil ki pricing aur trading ke liye mukhya reference points ka kaam karte hain, har ek benchmark ek khaas grade aur location ko represent karte hue.

Forex aur Oil Trading ke Darmiyan Relationship

Forex aur oil trading ke darmiyan taluqat ke bare mein key points nechay de gaye hain:

• Negative Correlation: USD/CAD currency pair traditional tor par oil ke price ke sath negative correlation dikhata hai. Jab oil prices barhte hain, Canadian dollar (CAD) US dollar (USD) ke muqable mein mazboot hota hai, aur ulta bhi.
• Inconsistent Correlation: Lekin USD/CAD aur oil prices ke darmiyan negative correlation ka consistency waqt ke sath kam hota ja raha hai. Iska wajah ye hai ke US ek bada oil producer ban gaya hai, jis se imports par uski reliance aur oil prices ka USD/CAD pair par asar kam hota hai.
• Changing Dynamics: Experts umeed karte hain ke USD/CAD aur oil prices ke darmiyan ke taluqat negative correlation se positive correlation mein tabdeel ho sakte hain jab US zyada oil exporter banega importer ke bajaye.
• Digar Oil-Exporting Currencies: Digar major oil-exporting countries ki currencies, jaise Norwegian Krone (NOK) aur Russian Ruble (RUB), bhi oil prices ke sath correlation dikhate hain, lekin correlations liquidity kam hone ki wajah se weak ho sakti hain.
• Causal Relationships: Research ke mutabiq, oil prices aur exchange rates ke darmiyan causal links zyada tar long-run mein aur oil market mein high volatility ke doran hota hai.
• Trading Opportunities: Traders oil prices aur forex pairs ke darmiyan ke correlations ka faida utha sakte hain taake oil market ke movements se potentially profit kam sakein, lekin unhein ye maloom hona chahiye ke ye relations inconsistent aur waqt ke sath tabdeel hone ki sambhavna hai.

Forex aur oil trading ke darmiyan taluqat complex hain, jahan currency pairs jaise USD/CAD itihas mein traditionally negative correlation dikhata hai jo waqt ke sath global oil market dynamics ke shift hone par kam reliability dikhata hai.

Oil Ka Tareekh

Oil pehli baar 600 B.C. mein daryaft kiya gaya tha, lekin haqeeqat mein 19th century mein wo cheez ban gayi jo aaj hai. Shuru mein coal ka ek badal ke taur par istemal kiya gaya tha, jabke waqt ke sath technology ki taraqqi hone ke baad, oil ko zyada demand ke bais bana gaya sab se popular energy source ke tor par, jo car ownership aur electricity use ke barhne wale demand se bani. Ibtida mein, 20th century mein, oil production zyadatar ‘The Seven Sisters’ ke zimmedari mein thi, jo ke Exxon, Shell, BP, Mobil, Texaco, Gulf, aur Chevron se mil kar aik cartel banate the. Lekin, 20th century ke darmiyan se, industry mein taqat ka balance aik drastic tor par badal gaya hai. The Seven Sisters duniya bhar mein bohot se oil production karne wale countries mein operate karte the, lekin in countries ke hukoomaton ne mehsoos kiya ke wo apne natural resources ke liye exploit kiye ja rahe hain.

Phir unhone 1960 mein OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) cartel banaya jismein Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, aur United Arab Emirates jaise maqbool mojooda members shamil hain. Aaj OPEC ka zyada power nahi hai jo pehle tha due to refining processes mein izafah ke bais. Aaj, sab se zyada oil reserves wale countries Venezuela, Canada, aur Saudi Arabia hain.

Trading Oil

Oil market mein bada volume aur zyada frequency wale oil transactions ki wajah se oil market ke trends ko predict karna aasan hota hai. Oil market mein aik nihayat miqdaar mein trading futures contracts ke zariye hoti hai. Ye contracts hote hain jahan ek kharidar future mein aik mukarrar miqdar oil ko aik mukarrar keemat par khareedne ke liye raazi hota hai, jismani oil ke holder ke risk ko present mein absorb karta hai kisi munafa ko hasil karne ki koshish mein (umeed karte hue ke jab contract amal mein aaya to oil ka market price unhone ne jo price payi thi se zyada hogi). Oil market ke traders options contracts (futures contracts bina kisi zimmedari ke) bhi trade karte hain. Oil price aur oil market ko mutasir karne wale potentially infinite factors hote hain, is liye future oil price ko bilkul perfect tarah se predict karna namumkin hai, lekin hum ne neeche kuch key factors discuss kiye hain taake aap apni portfolio ko knowledgeably diversify kar saken.

Oil Price Par Kya Asar Daalata Hai?

• Demand
  Aapko ye maloom hona chahiye ke kisi bhi cheez ki demand uske price par asar daalti hai, aur oil ki demand 2023 mein rozaana 98 million barrels ho sakti hai. Duniya bhar mein oil par waidespread reliance hone ke bais, oil ki demand relativity price inelastic ho sakti hai yaani agar price barh jata hai to demand itni hi giray gi, nisbatan. Demand ek ‘boom’ dour economic cycle mein barhti hai aur ‘bust’ dour economic cycle mein girti hai. Maslan, COVID-19 pandemic ke doran, oil ki demand itni historic lows par giri ke OPEC ko prices ko stabilize karne ke liye jaldi jaldi kadam uthane pare, phir bhi oil price 20 saal ke lowest level par giri.
• Supply
  Aik trader ke tor par, aapko ye bhi maloom hona chahiye ke supply oil price par kaise asar daalti hai aur kya cheezen oil ki supply ko mutasir karti hain. Oil production ka taqreeban 2023 mein demand se thora zyada hone ka tajwez hai 101 million barrels per day. Lekin, 2010s ke ibtida se oil prices girne ke bais naye oil discovery aur naye reserves mein neeche ki taraf aane ka trend raha hai kyunki oil prices itni zyada incentive nahi de rahe hain.
• Sentiment
  Oil derivatives market mein trade karne wale do baraheen qisam ke traders hote hain: hedgers aur speculators. Hedgers futures aur options contracts kharidte hain takay unhe future mein mumkin higher oil prices se bachaya ja sake. Speculators wo hote hain jo futures aur options contracts kharidte hain munafa hasil karne ki koshish mein. Ye samajhna zaroori hai ke sentiment kaise ye dono alag maqasid walon ko ek hi tarah se mutasir kar sakta hai. Maslan, agar ek hedger ka sentiment ye hai ke price bara jata hai to wo zyadatar futures contract khareedega takay wo future mein zyada keemat ki taraf jaane ka risk se bach sake. Lekin, agar speculator ka sentiment ye hai ke price bara jayega to wo zyadatar futures contract khareedega takay wo phir future mein oil ko zyada keemat par bech sake. Ye qeemat mein drasti changing kar sakti hai khud mein sentiment.
• Commodity Price Cycle
  Oil ki tareekh dekhte hue (magar dhyan dein ke jo pehle hua hai wo dobara hoga iski koi guarantee nahi hai), lagta hai ke ek takreeban 29 saal ka commodity price cycle hai jahan commodity price index har 29 saal ke baad ek peak tak pohanchti hai.
• Geopolitical factors
  Humne oil price par asar daalne wale geopolitical factors par briefly chhua hai, sab se zyada, hum ne dekha hai ke OPEC oil price par kaise asar daalta hai, lekin dusre bhi geopolitical factors hain. Maslan, Russia ka Ukraine par invasion oil prices ko nihayat barha diya, EU jo ke Russia ke oil par bohot ziada dependent thi. Is liye, qoumi aur regional geopolitical factors oil prices ko poori duniya mein asar daalne ki salahiyat rakhte hain.
• US Dollar
  Ek aur ahem factor jab oil trading karte waqt ghor karna chahiye wo hai US dollar ka hosla. Tamaam oil prices US dollars mein quote kiye jate hain jo, khud mein, oil price par asar daalega. Tareekhi tor par, jab US dollar mazboot hota hai, to oil price dollar terms mein kam hoti hai aur ulta bhi. Lekin, US dollar aur oil price ke darmiyan taalluqat unstable hone ki wajah se zyada ho rahi hai US ke oil production barhne ki wajah se. Ye is liye hai ke US ne oil ka net exporter ban gaya hai.
  
  Is liye, US trade deficit ko rising oil prices se positively affected hoga jo ke US exchange rate par musbat asar daal sakta hai. Ye aik barrel oil ke keemat ka izafa hote hue US dollar behtar hota hai, is liye ye taalluqat haal mein unstable ho gaya hai.
• Inflation
  Oil trading karte waqt, zaroori hai inflation aur oil price ke darmiyan taalluq ko samajhna. Jab oil keemat barhti hai, aur oil ko bohot se maal mein istemal kiya jata hai, to inflation barh jati hai. Ye pehle ke liye aik ahem masla tha, aaj ke muqablay mein kam, kyunki oil aaj se relatively kam istemal hota hai. Ye zaroor sochna chahiye ek trader/investor ke tor par jab aap apni portfolio ko diversify karte hain.

Oil Trading Takeaways

Aapko ab oil ke baray mein behtar understanding hai, oil trading kyun faydemand hai, aur key factors jo aapke oil trading ko kaise asar daalenge. Aik key takeaway ye hai ke price fluctuations ke core drivers aur oil mein trading ke risks aur benefits ko samajhne se aap apni trading strategy ko mazeed develop kar sakte hain aur investors apni portfolio ko aise assets se diversify kar sakte hain jo ke mazeed returns ka significant potential rakhte hain.