daily market analysis from forexmart

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: October 20, 2016

The GBP/USD pair closed the last trading session with a minimal decrease in its value after closing the session at 1.2260 points after reaching a weekly high of 1.2332 points, which was due to the release of the UK employment data. The employment data showed that the number of employed people in the UK increased up to 106,000 from June to August 2016, although the unemployment rate maintained its previous stance at 4.9%. On the other hand, the data for wages exceeded market expectations after surging to 2.3% excluding bonuses.

However, in spite of the fairly positive jobs data which is expected to persist until the following months, investors and traders are expressing concerns with regards to the possible divergence in inflation rates and salary increases, which might create market problems in the long run.

The resistance levels for the currency pair retreated significantly in the 4-hour chart. The resistance levels moved back from the 1.2320-1.2330 range, while other technical indicators are also reverting back from their previous values but still manages to remain in the positive side of the chart. If the pair breaks below 1.2230, then the pair is most likely to drop further into the 1.21 trading range.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 16, 2016

The USD continued to rise against the JPY as investor reaction caused the USD/JPY to reach its highest levels since June 2016. This has caused the market to reach its striking distance range since May at 111.44 points. The USD/JPY pair finished off the previous session at 109.181 points after increasing by 0.760 or +0.70%.


This recent rally was mainly caused by a sharp increase in US Treasury yields following the bullish report for the US retail sales data. The US Commerce Department has reported that retail sales data went up by 0.8% for the previous month, with September retail sales data revised to have increased by 1.0%. The retail sales data for both months were the highest data release since 2014, with retail sales data increasing by 4.3% as compared to last year.


Traders also reacted to an increase in import prices from 0.2% to 0.5%, a signal that inflation rates are now steadily increasing. The USD/JPY is expected to continue increasing towards 111.444 as US Treasury yields are still expected to increase further. Meanwhile, Japanese Government Bonds are still at the bottom range while US Treasury 30-year Bonds are steadily rising. Investors are waiting for the release of the Produce Price Index which is expected to maintain its previous reading of 0.3%. The data for the Capacity Utilization Rate is also expected to remain at 75.5%, while Industrial Production data could possibly show a slight increase from 0.1% to 0.2%.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 18, 2016

The market trend yesterday was pessimistic as it continued going down almost to lower physiological levels. The price activity remained calm with the latest lows during the Asian session. The uptrend was held back as it reached the 1.0750 mark resulting to a decline of the pair.


The Moving Averages stayed a bearish tone while Euro was seen to break in the 50-EMA followed by the retest in 100-EMA chart. The Resistance level is at 1.0750 while the support is seen at 1.0700 level. The technical indicators showed a bearish tone upon entering the negative zone. Both MACD and RSI indicator were seen within the oversold area.


If the pair did not go beyond the 1.0700 mark, the prices might go lower towards the 1.0650 level and will remain consolidated unless it will break at 1.0750 level.


The Eurozone CPI results for October were positive while the monthly CPI failed to meet expectations. The dollar slightly weakened but there are still appreciation seen to new highs. This is because of investors waiting for the next Fed rate hike on December and further strengthening of the economy.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: November 23, 2016

In the H4 chart, the price was seen to break at 1.01 handle that pushed the support levels higher within the 1.0155 - 1.0129 levels. The Resistance level showed a weaker stance from 1.02939 to 1.0131 levels. There are some facets to consider to sell this pair. One is the H4 handle steadied at 1.01 handle even though there are offered seen within the supply zone. Another is the uncertainty in the current daily support at 1.0086 mark.


The trend could shift downward when the price closed lower than 1.01 level while there is less volatility. However, when there is a break at 1.0037 daily Quasimodo line, the price could reach the 1.0029 level to 0.9994 and 1.0019 levels. The best stance would be the price lower by 14 pips towards the 1.01 handle then a retest within the resistance zone.


The downward trend will be validated when the price in the H4 chart reached the 1.0086 support level with a probability towards the Quasimodo line.


Major news to be declared today are the U.S. Core durable goods data and U.S. Jobless claims this afternoon while the Federal Open Market Committee minutes of the meeting will be disclosed in the evening.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 19, 2016

The trade balance in the Euro area declined in October, same scenario with the volume of exports but the import volume increased despite the decrease in the value of European currency. Moreover, the euro made a recovery on Friday. Traders broke the price and reached 1.0450 as they made some reversal on its previous losses. Meanwhile, buyers were unable to regain the level which caused an ascending motion of impetus to fade thereupon the price move towards a lower area. The 50-EMA pass over the 100-EMA downwards as shown in the 4-hour chart. The entire moving averages headed lower. Resistance touch the 1.0450 range, support lies at 1.0400.

The MACD histogram strengthened which means the positions for the sellers softened. RSI is in the oversold territory which indicates for another downward trend. According to speculations, the market will remain in the pressured area in case that EUR/USD fail to push the price higher, in return, the pair is expected to establish a weak point. The next target of the sellers is 1.0350 and 1.0400.

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GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: January 3, 2017

The British pound paired with the Japanese Yen rallied last Friday as it moved ahead of the hammer pattern on Thursday. This event caused many buyers to return to the market as it moved near the 145 level. A break above the aforesaid level will drove towards the 150 region.
The GBP/JPY continued to have a significant dip by which the market in return would increase buying opportunities. On the other hand, the price floor of the pair is below the 140 handle.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 3, 2017

The pair GBP/USD has been moving softly and remains resilient despite the appreciation of U.S. dollar since yesterday. This was brought by closing of London market same with the New York market that causing the low liquidity and weak volatility of the pair. Since today is the opening again, it is expected for the pair to gain volatility and waiting for hints on what will happen to the short term trend.

The U.S. dollar surged in the early weeks of December since the announcement of the Fed rate hike but a few correction were seen as the days advanced near the holidays. This pushed the pair to go lower towards the 1.2400 level predominant in thin market but it is expected that this will only occur for a short period of time. Since it is after holidays, then there will be high liquidity that guarantees the next moves compared to how it was 2 weeks ago.

The Manufacturing PMI data from U.K. will be announced today that starts this week rich in data while the market awaits if the trend will continued to be supported by U.K. keep posting positive results in the midst of Brexit preparation. However, the surge of dollar may continue for some time while pound weakens. Hence, any form of rebound for the pair signals an opportunity for short-term position.