Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on July 11, 2022Details of the economic calendar from July 8The report of the US Department of Labor was considered the main macroeconomic event of the past week, where unemployment remained at the same level of 3.6%. At the same time, 372,000 new jobs were created outside of agriculture, while the forecast was 268,000. US labor market data came out noticeably better than expected, but, at this time, the dollar was already heavily overbought.Analysis of trading charts from July 8During the inertial movement, the EURUSD currency pair came close to parity, which led to a massive fixation of short positions. As a result, the market experienced a technical pullback.The daily trading chart shows a gradual euro depreciation since June 2021. The scale of the decline is 2,150 points, which is about 17%.The GBPUSD currency pair, despite many attempts to resume the downward cycle, still fluctuated along the psychological level of 1.2000 (1.1950/1.2000/1.2050). This indicates an overheating of short positions, which are trying to regroup the trading forces in the stage of a change of turbulence.On the daily timeframe, the pound sterling has been losing 16.5% of its value since June 2021, which is about 2,300 points.Economic calendar for July 11Monday is traditionally accompanied by an empty macroeconomic calendar. Important statistical indicators in Europe, the United Kingdom, and the United States are not expected.Trading plan for EUR/USD on July 11In this situation, the descending mood remains among traders. For this reason, keeping the price stable below 1.0150 increases sellers' chances for a subsequent decline (towards parity).At the same time, traders are considering the scenario of a transition from a pullback stage to a complete correction if the price holds above 1.0220 in a four-hour period.Trading plan for GBP/USD on July 11In this situation, all of the traders' attention is focused on the deviation levels of 1.1950 and 1.2050 since the stable holding of the price outside of one or another value, at least in a four-hour period, may indicate a subsequent price path.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on July 12, 2022Details of the economic calendar from July 11Monday was traditionally accompanied by an empty macroeconomic calendar. Important statistics in Europe, the UK, and the United States were not published.Analysis of trading charts from July 11The EURUSD currency pair, ignoring the oversold signal, continued to decline, indicating a high interest of speculators in the current market situation.The GBPUSD currency pair, following the euro, resumed its decline. The vicious cycle along the psychologically important level of 1.2000 was interrupted, and the market saw an increase in the volume of short positions. As a result, the pound sterling has updated the local low of the downward trend.Economic calendar for July 12Tuesday is not much different from Monday in terms of the macroeconomic calendar. Important statistics in Europe, the UK, and the United States are not expected. Thus, traders have to keep track of the information flow and work based on the technical picture.Trading plan for EUR/USD on July 12Traders are now watching a historical event: the quote has come close to parity with the intention of breaking it. Holding the price below it can lead to a local acceleration of the downward cycle. After that, a sharp change in trading interest is possible, caused by an increase in the volume of long positions, which will provoke a technical pullback in the market. Variable and high volatility will remain in the market indefinitely.Trading plan for GBP/USD on July 12In this situation, everything points to a subsequent downward move towards the values of 1.1700–1.1500. In the work, it is worth considering that at this time, the EURUSD pair is the leading pair, and GBPUSD is the slave pair. Thus, in the event of a sharp change in trading interests in the euro, through a positive correlation, it will pull the pound sterling along with it.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 13/07/2022What is happening with the pound should now be considered exclusively through the single European currency, the behavior of which determines the development of events in the foreign exchange market. And in general, everything happened exactly as predicted - as soon as the euro reached parity, a rebound immediately began. Confused only by the scale of the rebound. Less than a hundred points. And this despite the fact that the dollar is simply unimaginably overbought. So it is quite possible that a second attempt will be made today. Moreover, the single currency is again moving towards parity.With that in mind, the just-released UK industrial production figures are irrelevant. Although its growth accelerated from 0.7% to 1.4%. Whereas, a decline of 0.3% was called before. But there was no reaction.Industrial production (UK):Today's attempt at a rebound will be more successful due to the fact that this time its implementation will be helped by a rather serious reason. The US will release its inflation report, which should accelerate from 8.6% to 8.8%. And if earlier the growth of inflation contributed to the dollar's growth, now the situation is somewhat different. Rising consumer prices forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, the expectation of which just contributed to the dollar's growth. Now everything is clear with the increase in the refinancing rate - the US central bank will raise it until the middle of next year. So the only thing that reflects inflation now is only a further deterioration in the state of affairs in the economy and the approach of a recession.Inflation (United States):The GBPUSD currency pair, through a positive correlation with EURUSD, has similar price fluctuations. After the next update of the local low of the downward trend, the quote slowed down around the value of 1.1800, where a rollback eventually occurred.The technical instrument RSI H4 and D1 is moving in the lower area of the 30/50 indicator, which indicates a high interest of traders in the downward move. RSI H1 in the rollback stage locally crossed the middle line 50 upwards.The moving MA lines on the Alligator H4 and D1 indicators are directed downwards, which corresponds to the direction of the main trend.Expectations and prospectsIn this situation, everything will depend on speculators' behavior on the correlating euro/dollar pair. In the event of a transition to the stage of a full-size correction, the pound will also be able to strengthen its position towards the values of 1.1950-1.2000. Otherwise, we will update the local low of the downward trend again.Comprehensive indicator analysis signals a buy in the short term due to a pullback. Technical instruments in the intraday and medium-term periods signal sell due to price movements within parity.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 14.07.2022As the market had been looking forward to the US inflation data, it neglected the report on the EU industrial production. Remarkably, the data was surprisingly strong. The EU industrial output was expected to rebound by 0.4% in May on year following a contraction of 2.0% in April. Nevertheless, the data for April was downgraded to -2.5%. The actual score for May was much better than expected at 1.6%. Thus, even despite the downward revision, the red-hot reading for May was beyond expectations. However, the single European currency again moved towards the parity level.EU Industrial Producion, y/yInterestingly, immediately after the release of the US CPI, the market was petrified and cameto a standstill. The thing is that the annual rate of consumer inflation surged to 9.1% following 8.6% a month ago. A faster inflation rate was recorded in November 1981. Analysts had projected the CPI at 8.8% in June. Such elevated inflation rates dispelled doubts that the US economy is firmly on the path to recession. Such warnings have been made by a good many economists. After the market had revived after the initial shock, the US dollar tumbled. It looked like a long-awaited drop. Nevertheless, an hour later, the US dollar reversed abruptly upwards and the single European currency again returned to the parity level. Indeed, inflation acceleration bears grave economic risks and forces the US Fed to raise interest rates more aggressively. Hot on the heels of the inflation report, analysts came up with their forecasts. They project that the US Fed will raise the funds rate by 100 basis points at a time at the nearest meeting. So, the federal funds rate will increase from 1.75% to 2.75%. Such forecasts pushed the euro back to parity.US Consumer Price Index, y/yIt goes without saying that the US dollar is overbought. The market obviously needs at least acorrection. Still, it has not happened yet. We assume that the euro should go below the parity level with the dollar for a start. Perhaps the US factory inflation data which is due today could push the euro down. The US PPI could have logged an uptick to 10.9% from 10.8%. It would mean that the odds are against a slowdown in consumer inflation at least in the near future. Besides, it will reinforce expectations about the aggressive pace of rate hikes by the US Fed. By and large, the US dollar could push the euro below the parity level and even settle below it.US Producer Price Index, y/yYesterday, EUR/USD was able to gain some ground but it was not enough to change a trend.As a result, the currency pair again retreated to the parity level and got stuck within a narrow range.The H4 RSI could not grasp the buying interest. The indicator is still hovering in the lower area of 30/50. It means the prevailing selling interest. The D1 RSI is moving in the oversold area which means that short positions are overheated.Moving averages on the H4 and D1 Alligators are directed downwards according to the overall bearish trend. The H1 Alligator has multiple intersections of moving averages, thus indicating a flat market.Outlook and trading tipsDespite the fact that the euro is heavily oversold, traders are still interested in selling EUR/USD. The ongoing flat market is viewed as the process of gaining momentum. Once the flat market is over, the trading instrument will burst into sharp price moves. In case the price settles below the parity level on the 4-hour chart, the market will resume the downward cycle, neglecting some technical signals. Under this scenario, we expect the pair to develop an inertial speculative move so that the euro could weaken by another 150-200 pips.At the same time, traders do not rule out a full-fledged correction bearing in mind the euro'soversold status. To generate the first buy signal, the euro has to recover to levels above 1.0100 on the 4-hour chart.Complex indicator analysis provides mixed signals for intraday and short-term trading amid the ongoing range-bound market. Technical instruments signal selling in the medium term because the currency pair is still moving at around the parity level.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 19/07/2022The long-awaited correction has finally come true. Although we are not talking about a full-fledged correction, but only about a local one. But even this is quite enough for the market to somewhat correct the resulting imbalances. So the market has prepared for the upcoming meeting of the board of the European Central Bank. But today the single European currency will have to decline somewhat, under pressure from inflation data. The growth rate of consumer prices may accelerate from 8.1% to 8.6%. Given that the issue of raising the refinancing rate has already been closed in principle, inflation data only plays the role of a parameter characterizing the general state of the economy. And judging by the fact that inflation continues to rise, nothing good is happening. Moreover, taking into account the experience of Great Britain, where the Bank of England began to raise the refinancing rate at the end of last year, that the increase in interest rates, all the more so modest, and the ECB plans to raise it from 0.00% to 0.25%, is not much more than will help. Another thing is that today we are talking about the final data, in general, already taken into account by the market at the time of the release of preliminary estimates. So the decline in the single currency will be limited.Inflation (Europe):The euro strengthened by more than 200 points against the US dollar from the local low of the downward trend. Despite the scale of price changes, the euro is still oversold in the medium term, this is indicated by a number of historical values in which the quote is currently located.The oversold status was removed in the short-term and intraday periods, this is indicated by the RSI H1 and H4 indicator, which is moving within the 70 line.The moving MA lines on the Alligator H4 indicators locally changed direction from downward to upward, which corresponds to a rollback-correction in the market.On the trading chart of the daily period, there is a subtle rebound of the price from the area of the parity level. Downward interest in the structure of the medium-term trend is still considered the main direction.Expectations and prospectsThe volume of long positions decreased at the moment when the price hit 1.0150, as indicated by the stagnation. For the subsequent growth of the euro's value, it is necessary to return above the level of 1.0150. Otherwise, there may be a gradual recovery of dollar positions, with the price returning to the parity level.Complex indicator analysis has a buy signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to a rollback. Technical instruments in the medium term signal a sale due to price movement within the parity level.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

The dollar is in conflict with oil, and the euro is optimistic before the ECB meeting

The US currency had to slow down a bit, giving way to the European one, which spread its wings ahead of the European Central Bank meeting. However, the euro should not be in euphoria, and the dollar should not be self-confident, analysts believe. At the same time, the dynamics of the latter is in contradiction with oil quotes, causing concerns about the raw materials market.

The greenback partially surrendered its positions on Wednesday, July 20, allowing the euro to move up. The latter was given strength by the upcoming ECB meeting, at which a decision on the interest rate is expected. According to ABN Amro economists, the markets expect the ECB to raise the key rate by 25 bps. In addition, two important issues will be raised at the meeting – the further trajectory of rate hikes and consideration of a new tool to combat fragmentation.

The ECB has doubts about the future rise in interest rates, namely in September 2022. However, ABN Amro believes that "the September increase will be a step of 50 bps" if the medium-term inflation forecast remains at the same level. At the same time, in the autumn and until the end of this year, a "gradual but steady increase in rates" by 25 bps is possible.

The current situation contributed to the euro's steady growth, which had soared by 1% a day earlier on statements that the ECB leadership would discuss the possibility of increasing the key rate by 50 bps at once. The EUR/USD pair was trading at 1.0234 on Wednesday morning, July 20, playing back previous failures. To date, the pair has exceeded the psychologically important level of 1.0200, increasing its weekly growth to 1.50%.

According to preliminary data announced by Reuters, the ECB will consider both options: raising rates by 25 bps and 50 bps. At the last meeting, the ECB allowed the rate to rise by 25 bps in July and the possibility of further increases in September. However, market participants and analysts do not rule out a more aggressive tightening of the monetary policy amid a rapidly growing inflation. Recall that in the first month of summer, consumer prices in the eurozone soared by 8.6% year-on-year after rising by 8.1% in May.

Analysts believe that its fair price plays in favor of the euro, while the dollar becomes overbought. This prevents the latter from growing and conquering the next peaks. The greenback's dynamics is under pressure from being overbought, experts emphasize. In the coming week, analysts expect a correction of the US currency, against which market participants will expect further actions by the Federal Reserve on the rate. The current forecasts regarding the Fed's interest rate hike are the main driving force of the market.

In case of a rise in the price of the greenback, the raw materials sector is experiencing the greatest difficulties. The recent downward trend recorded in the hydrocarbon market demonstrates investors' fear of a possible recession. Market participants fear that the current downturn in the economy will lead to a reduction in demand for raw materials. Experts consider the fact that most commodities are valued in dollars to be another important reason for the decline in the oil market. Take note that the price of benchmark Brent oil peaked in June, and in dollar terms, raw material prices increased by 59%.

As the USD rises in price, the global commodity market also increases in value, increasing pressure on demand. Strengthening the greenback not only increases the cost of buying raw materials outside the US, but also encourages foreign producers to sell stocks. The reason is that after converting dollars into national currencies, the incomes of oil producers are steadily growing.

The rapid rise of the US currency is able to bring down the hydrocarbon market, experts believe. The current conflict between the USD and the commodity sector is a confirmation of this difficult relationship. According to analysts, the correlation of greenback and oil has always been accompanied by difficulties. Such disagreements put significant pressure on demand. According to International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates, a strong USD, combined with record-high fuel prices, is helping to reduce demand in developing countries.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 21/07/2022

The intrigue is that investors have no idea what to expect from today's board meeting of the European Central Bank. Of course, the refinancing rate will be raised, but what's next is completely unclear. What exactly ECB President Christine Lagarde will say about the pace and extent of the tightening of monetary policy parameters will determine the further development of events. This uncertainty is the reason for the apparent stagnation in the market. The pound ignored even the data on consumer prices, the growth rate of which accelerated from 9.1% to 9.4%. That turned out to be slightly less than the forecast of 9.5%. And this can be interpreted as a sign of a possible slowdown in inflationary processes. Which of course is an extremely positive thing.

Inflation (UK):

So, the ECB today for the first time since July 2011 will raise the refinancing rate. It should be raised from 0.00% to 0.25%. The very fact of the first increase in interest rates in more than ten years will, of course, spur the market and lead to the growth of the single European currency. Through the dollar index, it will pull other currencies with it. So it will be like a global weakening of the dollar. But what happens after that depends solely on Lagarde's rhetoric.

Refinancing rate (Europe):

It is necessary to take into account the fact that quite recently everyone was sure that the refinancing rate would be raised by 50 basis points, that is, up to 0.50%, and then expectations were significantly reduced. In addition, the head of the Bundesbank recently announced the need for an extremely cautious approach to the issue of raising interest rates, as this will lead to an increase in the yield of government bonds of all countries in the euro area. The debt burden of which is already incredibly high. So they may find themselves in a situation of inability to service their own debts. From all this, a simple conclusion follows - Lagarde will announce just an extremely slow increase in interest rates, and that the next increase may occur in just one meeting. Or something like that. And if this is exactly what happens, then after a slight upward jump, the single currency will again begin to gradually lose its positions and move towards parity. Pulling the pound along.

If Lagarde's rhetoric turns out to be more hawkish, and a large-scale tightening of monetary policy is announced, then the subsequent weakening of the dollar will be much more impressive, and most importantly, prolonged.

The correction move for the GBPUSD pair slowed down within the area of the psychological level of 1.2000. As a result, a range of 1.1950/1.2050 emerged, which indicates the process of accumulation of trading forces, which can lead to new price jumps.

The RSI H4 technical instrument is moving in the upper area of the 50/70 indicator, which indicates a continuing corrective move in the market. RSI D1 ignores the correction, the main reference is the downward trend.

The moving MA lines on the Alligator H4 indicator are directed upwards, which corresponds to a corrective move. While the MA lines on Alligator H1 have a lot of intersections with each other, which indicates congestion.

Expectations and prospects

In this situation, the method of outgoing momentum from the current range of 1.1950/1.2050 is considered the most optimal trading tactic.

We concretize the above into trading signals:

Long positions on the currency pair are taken into account after keeping the price above the value of 1.2060 in a four-hour period.

Short positions should be considered after keeping the price below 1.1920 in a four-hour period.

Complex indicator analysis has a variable signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to stagnation. Technical instruments in the medium term give a sell signal due to a downward trend.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 21/07/2022

The intrigue is that investors have no idea what to expect from today's board meeting of the European Central Bank. Of course, the refinancing rate will be raised, but what's next is completely unclear. What exactly ECB President Christine Lagarde will say about the pace and extent of the tightening of monetary policy parameters will determine the further development of events. This uncertainty is the reason for the apparent stagnation in the market. The pound ignored even the data on consumer prices, the growth rate of which accelerated from 9.1% to 9.4%. That turned out to be slightly less than the forecast of 9.5%. And this can be interpreted as a sign of a possible slowdown in inflationary processes. Which of course is an extremely positive thing.

Inflation (UK):

So, the ECB today for the first time since July 2011 will raise the refinancing rate. It should be raised from 0.00% to 0.25%. The very fact of the first increase in interest rates in more than ten years will, of course, spur the market and lead to the growth of the single European currency. Through the dollar index, it will pull other currencies with it. So it will be like a global weakening of the dollar. But what happens after that depends solely on Lagarde's rhetoric.

Refinancing rate (Europe):

It is necessary to take into account the fact that quite recently everyone was sure that the refinancing rate would be raised by 50 basis points, that is, up to 0.50%, and then expectations were significantly reduced. In addition, the head of the Bundesbank recently announced the need for an extremely cautious approach to the issue of raising interest rates, as this will lead to an increase in the yield of government bonds of all countries in the euro area. The debt burden of which is already incredibly high. So they may find themselves in a situation of inability to service their own debts. From all this, a simple conclusion follows - Lagarde will announce just an extremely slow increase in interest rates, and that the next increase may occur in just one meeting. Or something like that. And if this is exactly what happens, then after a slight upward jump, the single currency will again begin to gradually lose its positions and move towards parity. Pulling the pound along.

If Lagarde's rhetoric turns out to be more hawkish, and a large-scale tightening of monetary policy is announced, then the subsequent weakening of the dollar will be much more impressive, and most importantly, prolonged.

The correction move for the GBPUSD pair slowed down within the area of the psychological level of 1.2000. As a result, a range of 1.1950/1.2050 emerged, which indicates the process of accumulation of trading forces, which can lead to new price jumps.

The RSI H4 technical instrument is moving in the upper area of the 50/70 indicator, which indicates a continuing corrective move in the market. RSI D1 ignores the correction, the main reference is the downward trend.

The moving MA lines on the Alligator H4 indicator are directed upwards, which corresponds to a corrective move. While the MA lines on Alligator H1 have a lot of intersections with each other, which indicates congestion.

Expectations and prospects

In this situation, the method of outgoing momentum from the current range of 1.1950/1.2050 is considered the most optimal trading tactic.

We concretize the above into trading signals:

Long positions on the currency pair are taken into account after keeping the price above the value of 1.2060 in a four-hour period.

Short positions should be considered after keeping the price below 1.1920 in a four-hour period.

Complex indicator analysis has a variable signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to stagnation. Technical instruments in the medium term give a sell signal due to a downward trend.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 22, 2022

Until yesterday, the last time the European Central Bank raised the refinancing rate was in July 2011. That was exactly eleven years ago. So there is nothing surprising in the fact that as soon as it was announced that all interest rates were raised by 50 basis points, the single European currency immediately jumped. But it returned to its original position almost immediately, and began to show a downward trend. The ECB was able to surprise everyone greatly. And quite unpleasant. The fact is that, coupled with an increase in the refinancing rate, the launch of the TPI program was announced, which can be deciphered as a Transitional Protective Instrument. In fact, this is another quantitative easing program. It is aimed at supporting the countries of the euro area in the face of rising interest rates. The fact is that the increase in rates will lead to an increase in the yield of government bonds. So borrowing will become more expensive, and the level of public debt is extremely high. Many countries may well be unable to service their debts. This alone simply cancels out any effect from higher interest rates. But what is most important is that the parameters of this program are not known. No timing, no volume. Simply put, the ECB can print as much money as it wants. That opens the way not just to parity, but also to lower values.

Refinancing rate (Europe):

The EURUSD currency pair only locally showed speculative interest during the announcement of the results of the ECB meeting and the press conference. The scale of fluctuations was about 100 points. As a result, the current momentum led to forming a short-term flat within the boundaries of 1.0150/1.0270.

The technical instrument RSI H4 is moving in the upper area of the 50/70 indicator, which indicates a residual signal of a corrective move. RSI D1 has come close to the 50 middle line, which corresponds to the usual correction.

The MA moving lines on the Alligator H1 indicator have many intersections with each other, which indicates a flat. Alligator H4 is in the process of decelerating the upward cycle. Alligator D1 ignores local price rules. There is no intertwining between the MA sliding lines.

Expectations and prospects

In this situation, the current range focuses all the attention of traders on itself. For this reason, the most appropriate trading tactic is considered to be the method of breaking through one or another flat border.

We concretize the above into trading signals:

Long positions on the currency pair are taken into account after keeping the price above the value of 1.0280 in a four-hour period.

Short positions should be considered after keeping the price below 1.115 in a four-hour period.

Complex indicator analysis has a variable signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to the flat. Technical instruments in the medium term give a sell signal due to a downward trend.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on July 25, 2022Details of the economic calendar from July 22Preliminary data on business activity indices in Europe, Great Britain, and the United States reflected an overall decline. And since the picture is the same, there was no reason for fuss.Details of statistical indicators:In Europe, the index of business activity in the service sector fell from 53.0 to 50.6 points, while the forecast was 52.0 points. Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.1 to 49.6 points, with forcast of a decline to 51.0 points. The composite index fell from 52.0 to 49.4 points.The situation is slightly better in the UK. Services PMI fell from 54.3 to 53.3 points, while the forecast assumed a decline to 53.0 points. Manufacturing PMI, on the other hand, fell from 52.8 to 52.2, with a forecast of 52.0 points. The composite index fell from 53.7 to 52.2 points.In the US, Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.7 to 52.3 points. Services PMI fell from 52.7 to 47.0 points, while forecasts expected it to remain at the same level. As a result, the composite index fell from 52.3 to 47.5 points.Analysis of trading charts from July 22The EURUSD currency pair is in the flat stage, where the values of 1.0150/1.0270 serve as boundaries. The prolonged presence of the price in a closed amplitude indicates a characteristic uncertainty among traders. At the same time, this process can lead to a cumulative effect, which will lead to speculative price jumps.The GBPUSD currency pair has been moving along the psychological level of 1.2000 for almost a week, only having a local deviation from the control range of 1.1950/1.2050.Economic calendar for July 25Monday is traditionally accompanied by an empty macroeconomic calendar. Important statistics in Europe, the United Kingdom and the United States are not expected.Trading plan for EUR/USD on July 25In this situation, trading tactics still considers the method of breaking through one or another border of the established flat. In this regard, buy positions will be valid after the price holds above 1.0280 in a four-hour period, and sell positions will arise after the price holds below 1.0115 in a four-hour period.Trading plan for GBP/USD on July 25In this situation, the pound sterling repeats the movement of the European currency, where there is a similar flat. Thus, based on a positive correlation, the completion of the euro flat will lead to a movement in the pound.If we proceed from the price levels, then to increase the volume of short positions in the pound, it is necessary to keep below the value of 1.1950. Meanwhile, the conversation about buying the pound may come if the price holds above the 1.2050 mark in a four-hour period.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

US stock market closed mixed, Dow Jones up 0.28%At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.28%, the S&P 500 rose 0.13%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 0.43%.Chevron Corp was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 4.29 points or 2.98% to close at 148.48. The Travelers Companies Inc rose 3.56 points or 2.28% to close at 159.98. Caterpillar Inc rose 3.19 points or 1.79% to close at 181.81.The biggest losers were Salesforce.com Inc, which shed 5.18 points or 2.84% to end the session at 177.29. McDonald's Corporation was up 3.61 points (1.42%) to close at 250.38, while Boeing Co was down 1.52 points (0.96%) to close at 156.64 .Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were SVB Financial Group, which rose 8.25% to 391.16, Marathon Oil Corporation, which gained 6.57% to close at 23.18, and also shares of CF Industries Holdings Inc, which rose 6.45% to end the session at 90.28.The biggest losers were Newmont Goldcorp Corp, which shed 13.23% to close at 44.59. Shares of Align Technology Inc shed 5.19% to end the session at 252.07. IDEXX Laboratories Inc fell 4.56% to 375.56.Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were GeoVax Labs Inc, which rose 150.39% to hit 1.59, Redbox Entertainment Inc, which gained 81.97% to close at 5.55, and also shares of Virax Biolabs Group Ltd, which rose 62.48% to close the session at 16.80.Shares of Yoshitsu Co Ltd ADR became the leaders of the decline, which decreased in price by 29.57%, closing at 1.62. Shares of Enveric Biosciences Inc shed 28.36% to end the session at 6.92. Quotes Addex Therapeutics Ltd fell in price by 28.28% to 1.42.On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1923) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1233), and quotes of 146 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 1,957 stocks fell, 1,816 rose, and 210 remained at the previous close.The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 1.43% to 23.36.Gold futures for August delivery lost 0.60%, or 10.35, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for September delivery rose 2.13%, or 2.02, to $96.72 a barrel. Brent futures for October delivery rose 1.77%, or 1.74, to $100.12 a barrel.Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.14% to 1.02, while USD/JPY quotes rose 0.43% to hit 136.63.Futures on the USD index fell 0.29% to 106.31.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

The euro is trying to put pressure on the gas

The euro once again demonstrated its dependence on the situation on the gas market. Difficulties encountered by the euro bloc countries regarding the payment of energy resources had a negative impact on the euro's dynamics. The euro's current task is to find a balance in the EUR/USD pair.

Significant pressure on the euro's dynamics was exerted by fears about the possibility of another reduction in Russian gas supplies. This topic is relevant for European countries dependent on the supply of blue fuel. Difficulties in resolving this issue jeopardize the euro's succeeding growth, experts believe.

Against this backdrop, the threat of a recession looms over the eurozone, which is complicated by the blue fuel conjuncture. The next round of the energy crisis in Europe reduces the single currency's chances to recover, which was violated after reaching parity with the dollar.

European countries are trying to solve the emerging problems in their own way. France has begun to limit domestic energy consumption, and Germany is in the process of state harmonization of moderate fuel consumption. The deteriorating situation with gas supplies and the lack of alternative mechanisms for solving the problems that have arisen are alarming signals for the euro.

Amid current difficulties, the euro exchange rate reached parity against the USD, but then won back its losses. However, the euro is walking on thin ice, risking repeating destructive actions at any moment. Support for the single currency, which grew moderately on Wednesday, was provided by the expectation of positive data on consumer confidence in the German economy. According to preliminary estimates, this indicator increased to -28.9 points after the previous mark (-27.4 points) recorded last month. The EUR/USD pair traded up to 1.0145 on Wednesday morning, July 27, trying to gain a foothold in current positions.

According to currency strategists at UniCredit Bank, EUR/USD's ability to stay above 1.0100 will help the euro survive the Federal Reserve's 75 bp rate hike expected today. Global markets are focused on the results of the Fed meeting. Note that an increase of 75 bp already included in current prices. At the same time, some experts do not rule out a 100 bp rate hike. According to analysts, the markets are fully prepared for any decision by the US central bank, although a 100 bp increase is expected. Unlikely and undesirable. Such actions are unlikely to help the dollar's growth, since the appreciation of the latter is a settled issue, experts conclude.

At the same time, the euro's positions after the Fed meeting remain shaky. The next interest rate hike by the US central bank will not add optimism to the euro, which is overcome by gas problems. Add fuel to the fire messages about the restriction of Russian gas supplies to Europe, knocking out the ground from under the feet of the euro.

According to experts, at the beginning of this week, the euro was among the outsiders. The reason is the difficulties with the supply of blue fuel through the Nord Stream gas pipeline and with the return of the turbine after repair. The situation is complicated by the increase in the wholesale price of gas by 17%, to 192 euros/MWh. At the same time, the European price for natural gas TTF Cal23 exceeded 150 euros per MWh, reaching the highest value for this contract.

Measures taken by Russia to reduce natural gas supplies to the EU have intensified global competition for blue fuel. According to Bloomberg, against this background, Asian importers are increasing their purchases of LNG for the winter, trying to get ahead of Europe. As a result, LNG prices may exceed $40 per barrel, experts believe. Note that Europe imports 35% of its energy from Russia, but the latter's energy income from trade with the EU is 70%. At the same time, these deliveries are made through pipelines that cannot be redirected to Asia.

Against this backdrop, the euro rate showed a decline, causing traders and investors to worry about the future of the single currency. At the moment, gas prices remain a ticking time bomb for the markets and for the EUR, risking "detonation" in the coming months. According to experts, a further reduction in the supply of blue fuel to the EU and rising prices for raw materials deprive the euro of chances for an effective and long-term recovery.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 28/07/2022

The increase in the refinancing rate of the Federal Reserve by 75 basis points, from 1.75% to 2.50%, did not come as a surprise. In principle, the market was ready for this since the previous meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. It is surprising how rapidly the dollar began to lose its positions. It is noteworthy that this happened during the press conference of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Indeed, Powell's words caused complete surprise.

First, he did not give any specifics on the extent of the increase in the refinancing rate during the FOMC's September meeting. Powell only noted that it will be "massive." At the same time, he noted that when making a decision, the central bank will be guided by inflationary dynamics. So in September, the refinancing rate may be raised once again by 75 basis points, for which the market has long been ready. But the difference is that now there is no guarantee of such a rise in interest rates. On the contrary, there is a possibility of a somewhat more modest increase.

Second, Powell said nothing about the coming recession. More precisely, during his speech, he did not say anything about it. When asked a direct question, he only replied that there was no recession, and that the first estimate of GDP for the second quarter, which is published today, is likely to be not entirely accurate. It turns out that the Fed does not see any signs of the beginning of a recession, or pretends not to.

Thirdly, in the final part of his speech, Powell assured that the central bank would seek employment growth, although in the spring there were signs of overheating of the labor market. And this may well become a completely independent cause for a recession and an explosive increase in unemployment. In such a situation, the central bank, on the contrary, should strive to stabilize the labor market and slow down the rate of growth in the creation of new jobs.

Otherwise, the consequences will be horrendous. But according to Powell, nothing will be done in this direction. In other words, the central bank does not see any signs of a recession, and will continue to do everything to start it as soon as possible.

Refinance rate (United States):

All this, of course, not only surprised investors, but rather frightened them. Which weakened the dollar. However, a strong interest rate differential will take its toll and the dollar will soon rise again. Although today it is likely to continue to lose ground. Just under the pressure of GDP data. Of course, there is no talk of any recession in the second quarter, but there is no doubt that they will show a significant slowdown in economic growth. Which would contradict Powell's words. And this reduces the credibility of the central bank, which is probably even worse.

Change in GDP (United States):

The GBPUSD currency pair successfully rebounded from the psychological level of 1.2000, as a result, the primary signal about the prolongation of the corrective move was confirmed on the market. As a result, the quote rushed towards the level of 1.2155.

The technical instrument RSI H4 during the speculative price momentum came close to the level of 70. This approach may indicate a characteristic overheating of long positions. RSI D1 is at the levels of February this year. This may be a signal of a change in trading interest. In this case, this is only an assumption, we should get many more confirming signals of this theory.

The moving MA lines on the Alligator H4 indicator are directed upwards, which corresponds to a corrective move. Alligator D1 has a clear intersection between the green and red MA lines, which indicates a slowdown in the downward trend.

Expectations and prospects

In this situation, much depends on how the quote behaves within the level of 1.2155. Since keeping the price above it with confirmation of the breakdown of the value of 1.2200 can strengthen the upward move.

At the same time, a slowdown in the upward cycle cannot be ruled out, where a rebound may occur amid overheating of long positions. In this case, the course may return to the previously completed level.

Complex indicator analysis has a buy signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to the prolongation of the correction.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 08/08/2022

The content of the report of the United States Department of Labor came as a complete surprise, and eventually led to a noticeable strengthening of the dollar. And the fact is that all the main indicators turned out to be much better than forecasts. Thus, the unemployment rate, instead of remaining unchanged, fell from 3.6% to 3.5%. Moreover, 528,000 new jobs were created outside of agriculture. Although, according to forecasts, the creation of 290,000 new jobs was expected. In fact, they were about twice as many. And do not forget that in order to maintain the stability of the labor market, a little more than 200,000 new jobs should be created outside of agriculture. And since they turned out to be more than twice as many, the unemployment rate will continue to decline. Which somewhat contradicts the idea that the US economy is sliding into recession.

Number of new non-agricultural jobs (United States):

Today the macroeconomic calendar is absolutely empty, and apparently, the market will consolidate around the values reached on Friday.

Despite everything, the EURUSD currency pair is moving within the 1.0150/1.0270 horizontal channel, consistently working out the set boundaries. Last Friday, the quote rebounded from the area of the upper border and rushed to the area of the lower one, where the volume of short positions decreased. A consistent cycle of fluctuations is essential in the market, which makes it possible for traders to work based on the natural basis of the past.

The technical instrument RSI H4, following the price rebound from the upper border of the flat, crossed the middle line 50 from top to bottom. This signal only indicates the bounce method, but not the end of the flat. In general terms, the indicator is still centered on the middle line.

The moving MA lines on the Alligator H4 have a lot of interlacing, this indicates a variable signal that corresponds to the flat stage.

Expectations and prospects

The flat stage is still relevant in the market, which is indicated by the current price rebound from the lower border. In this situation, the subsequent increase in the volume of long positions is expected after the price stays above the value of 1.0200. In this scenario, it is possible to consider movement towards 1.2150/1.2170.

The main strategy, as before, is the method of breaking through one of the control levels: 1.0300 - when considering the upward development of the market; 1.0100 - if market participants are oriented towards a hike towards the parity level.

It is worth noting that the signal must be confirmed in a four-hour period.

Complex indicator analysis has a variable signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to the current flat. At the moment, the indicators point to long positions on the euro, due to the price rebound from the lower border of the outset.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on August 9Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pairWhen EUR/USD tested 1.0178, the MACD line had just started to move below zero, which was a good signal to sell. Surprisingly, the quote did not decrease, but rose and tested 1.0195 instead. At that time, the MACD line was just beginning to move above zero, which was a good signal to buy. It prompted a 20-pip increase, while its second test did not bring significant profit.As expected, the report on investor confidence in the Euro area was ignored by the market.Today promises to be another calm day as investors are likely to be preparing for tomorrow's release of US inflation. The data will set the direction of the market, right before the end of this month. In the afternoon, reports on small business optimism, labor productivity and labor costs will be published in the US, all of which will affect EUR/USD. Expect it to trade horizontally.For long positions:Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0215 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0248. However, there is little chance for a rally today, especially considering today's lack of statistics and tomorrow's inflation data in the US.Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 1.0193, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0215 and 1.0248.For short positions:Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0193 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0161. Pressure will return if buying pressure decreases.Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0215, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0193 and 1.0161.Analysis and trading tips for GBP/USD on August 9Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pairWhen GBP/USD tested 1.2094, the MACD was far away from zero, so the upside potential was limited. But in the afternoon, its second test happened when the MACD line had just started to move above zero, which was a good signal to buy. This prompted to a price increase of more than 40 pips. Sadly, the target price of 1.2140 was not reached.Today promises to be another calm day as investors are likely to be preparing for tomorrow's release of US inflation report. The highest value GBP/USD could reach is yesterday's local resistance level of 1.2135. In the afternoon, data on small business optimism, labor productivity and labor costs will be published in the US, all of which will affect the direction of the market. Expect the pair to trade horizontally.For long positions:Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.2092 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2132 (thicker green line on the chart). There is a chance for a rally today, but only after the breakdown of 1.2092.Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.2068, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2092 and 1.2132.For short positions:Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.2068 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2031. Pressure will increase if the attempt to continue the upward correction fails.Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.2092, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2068 and 1.2031.