daily market analysis from forexmart

Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 29, 2016

The kiwi is hovering 20 pips below 0.70 handle after recording losses from an intraday high of 0.6990. With rate decisions coming from a number of currencies this week, NZD is showing the second strongest performance after the Yen.

The ANZ Business Confidence released today showed that companies are expecting positive economic activity as it jumped from 3.2 in March to 6.2 in April. Thirty-five percent of the surveyed firms predict an interest rate cut in the next policy meeting.

On the US side, personal spending will be released today while a deluge of data including manufacturing PMI and nonfarm payroll will come next week.

The first support is at 0.6918 and 0.6883 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7037 and 0.7072 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in neutral location. The price is rising.

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 3, 2016

In opposition to the anticipation of most of us, the Manufacturing PMI in Germany reduced. The indicator displayed the data of 51.8 contrary with 51.9 in the recent month wherein it was seasonally revised. Meanwhile, experts hoped for the index to be at the recent level of 51.9.

The first support occurs at 1.1450 and at 1.1350 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.1550 and at 1.1650 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. This movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is growing.

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: May 3, 2016

The Manufacturing PMI of the USA for April heightened to 51.8. Many traders had looked forward for the index to lessen by 51 in opposition to 51.5 recorded in March. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI of Japan surpass our expectations and grew by 48.2 contrary to the report of 48.0.

The first support occurs at 105.80 and at 105.00 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 106.60 and at 107.40 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal motion. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is correcting.

Fundamental Analysis: May 4, 2016

Insignificant forecasts has been issued by the USA which is the ISM New York and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism indices wherein the data came in at 48,7 in opposition to the reported 46,6. The stabilization of the price can be viewed already, yet it is too soon to determine whether this is enough for a rate hike. At the next meeting that will take place in June, the decision for the rate hike will come up.

Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index in Eurozone for March displayed -4.2% wherein the report was -4.3% and the recent value was -4.2%. And for the first time this year, the index heightened. It could be a sign that the growth is impossible to decline for the next months.

The pound reduced on Tuesday from being on peak for four months when the manufacturing activity of the UK dropped in April for the first time over the past three years wherein the data came in at 49.2 from 51.0 in March contrary to the reported 51.2. The index that has been issued heightened the concerns regarding the probable growth in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, in the midst of the Constitution Day, the Bank of Japan did not have any activity on Tuesday.

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: May 4, 2016

Declining to its bottom-most level since February 2013, the Markit Manufacturing PMI in the UK modulated to 49.2 in April. This data was lower than the re-assessed value of 50.7 in March and below the economists' expectation of 51.2. The Manufacturing is still one of the most unpredictable sectors of the economy and still faces challenges including poor demand in the Asian markets and the slowing down of the euro area.

The first support occurs at 1.4480 and at 1.4400 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4560 and at 1.4670 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display a horizontal motion. The ascending movement will remain until the price is on top of the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is strengthening.

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Fundamental Analysis: May 11, 2016

Tuesday, the dynamics of the market was enliven with the help of the calendar of economic events. Job Openings was issued by the US wherein the data came in at 5.757 million contrary to the report of 5.431 million.

The euro currency heightened a little in opposition with the dollar. The euro zone has made a report about Industrial Production in Germany for March which the data dropped low more than what was expected wherein it came at -1,3% contrary with the expectations of -0,2%. Meanwhile, exports displayed a fast growth showing 1,9% against expectations -0,1%.

The Trade Balance which has sustained the pound was showed by the United Kingdom. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney apprised the commercial banks and other financial institutions regarding a probable rate cut if ever the UK departs from the European Union.

The fall of the yen currency is an aftermath of the statement of the Minister of Finance on Monday. If it happens that the yen continues to grow, the regulator is ready to intercede, as stated by the ASO. The Japan Minister of Economy Nobuteru Ishihara stated that after the rally of the yen in the past week, he is nearly observing the financial markets.

Fundamental Analysis: May 12, 2016

Yesterday, in opposition with the US dollar, the major pairs has been rectified. We haven't heard EU stating significant data and the market's volatility was weak. The market was not affected by the British data through the main cross-pair EUR/GBP and most of the trades were unperturbed and smooth.

The scarcity of drivers helped the UK market to stay still. But the forthcoming referendum can probably become one of the drivers in the future. As stated by Michael Sanders, Bank of England Monetary Committee representative, if Britain favors the exit from EU, the Central Bank will be obliged to heighten the rates to 3.5% by the end of 2017, because the exit out of the EU union will facilitate the slump of the pound and will probably strengthen the inflation.

Due to the profits taken by the investors, the dollar slumped in opposition with the yen on Wednesday. It was an aftermath of the recent rally gaining a two-week highs and the Japanese speech regarding its preparation for an intercession. Yet, Japan were expected by many investors to refrain from doing any activity to enfeeble the yen before the G7 meeting.

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: May 12, 2016

The increase of risk appetite caused a positive effect on investor's sentiment. As a funding currency, the yen were pressured by the optimism showed by the leading stock exchanges. However, the US and Japanese government bonds yield differential had been decreasing for many consecutive trading days. The dollar/yen pair decreased by the end of the trades.

The first support occurs at 108.20 and at 107.40 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 109.00 and at 109.80 subsequently.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is consolidating.

Fundamental Analysis: May 13, 2016

The sturdiness of the world economy was left vague even though the dollar was sustained by the restored risk appetite. The Initial Jobless Claims volume was issued by the US wherein the data came in at 294,000 contrary with the expected 270,000. The political event of the day were the statements which came from Rosengren E. and Mester L, the Fed representatives. Mester stated that the risks which relative with the Fed reports should not affect the monetary policy management. While Rosengren proposed that the risks of leaving the rates unmodified seem too inferior for a long term of time.

The Germany issued the Wholesale Price Index wherein the data came in at 0,3% m/m in opposition with the expected 0,2% m/m while the Eurozone issued Industrial Production wherein the data came in at -0.8% m/m contrary with the expected 0.1% m/m.

The significant event of the day was the Bank of England meeting. The rate was remained unmodified by the regulator at 0.5%. At the same time, the inflation report of the Central Bank became the center of attraction. We hope that the growth in assessment of the inflation in the present year could help the pound to rise and counterbalance concerns about the cost of lending decrease. The Central Banks anticipates the inflation to restore at 0.2%.

In the midst of short positions closing, the dollar still managed to increased in opposition to yen. However, the US currency was still under pressure caused by the vagueness of probable increase in the global market.

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: May 13, 2016

The significant event on Thursday was the inflation report of the Bank of England. As we have expected, the Central Bank statements about the economy and the inflation increase were quite negative. The rate remained unmodified by the UK regulator at the level of 0,5%.

The first support occurs at 1.4400 and at 1.4320 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4480 and at 1.4560 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a horizontal motion and the Kijun-sen forms a descending movement creating a "Golden Cross". The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: May 16, 2016

The Service Sector activity in Japan has reduced more than expected last month. Tertiary Industry Index seasonally corrected displayed -0,7% contrary with -0,1% in the recent month. The experts anticipated a decrease to -0,2%.

The first support occurs at 108.20 and at 107.40 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 109.00 and at 109.80 subsequently.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen displays an ascending movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is consolidating.