Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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EUR/USD looking for direction as market faces uncertaintyYesterday, the greenback lost almost 0.6% against its main rivals, including the euro.On Monday, the US dollar stopped its four-day winning streak, giving away profits received in the previous session and rolling back to Friday's levels.The recent jump in USD was driven by the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), which rose by 0.6% last month after increasing by 0.2% in December. In annual terms, the indicator accelerated by 5.4% after rising by 5.3% a month earlier."Inflation remains too high and the latest data reinforces my view that we still have a long way to go to bring inflation down to our 2% target," Boston Fed President Susan Collins said in a statement."The PCE price index report indicates that more effort will be needed from the Fed to put inflation on a sustained path down to 2%," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said.The latest data cast doubt on the assertions of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about the start of a disinflationary process in the United States.This sentiment seemed to be shared by most FOMC members and justified the central bank's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its monetary policy meeting on January 31-February 1 after a string of larger moves in 2022."If the Fed had received this data at the last meeting, it would probably have raised rates by 50 basis points, and Jerome Powell's stance at the press conference would have been very different," strategists at Cetera Investment Management said.Fed officials speaking on Friday did not push for a return to last year's massive rate hikes, suggesting the central bank is content with a gradual tightening for now, despite signs that inflation is not declining as they had hoped.It is expected that the Fed will increase the cost of borrowing by another 25 basis points at its next meeting on March 21-22.However, some analysts see the possibility of raising rates by 50 basis points if inflation remains high and US economic growth is strong."We now believe that the likelihood of a 50 basis point Fed rate hike in March is much higher. We estimate the chances of such an outcome at about 60%," NatWest experts noted.Barclays experts also do not rule out an increase in the cost of borrowing in the US next month by 50 basis points at once.According to the CME Group, 76% of traders expect the Fed to hike the key rate in March of 25 basis points, while 24% predict a rise by 50 basis points.The prospect of more robust US inflation, which requires more consistent monetary tightening from the Fed, saw Wall Street's key indicators suffer their biggest weekly losses of the year on Friday.Over the past week, major US stock indices have lost an average of 3%."We have learned that US inflation is proving to be much more stubborn and US activity more resilient than we anticipated in December and January. It is clear that investors are now more serious about the statements of the Fed hawks and have priced in three more rate hikes of 25 basis points in March, May, and June," ING strategists said.The derivatives market expects the Fed's key rate to peak at 5.4% this year, although a month ago the maximum rate was estimated at 5%.Traditionally, the Fed raises the rate to support the US currency.While the US stock market was knocked out by the PCE price index, the dollar hit seven-week highs at 105.30 on Friday and posted its biggest weekly gain since late September 2022, gaining more than 1.3%.Meanwhile, EUR/USD came under bearish pressure on Friday and went down by about 0.5% to close the day near 1.0545. As a result, the pair lost about 150 pips.On Monday, the greenback retested multi-week highs and approached 105.40 but failed to hold on to these levels and retreated, following the decline in US Treasury yields.The demand for USD weakened after the release of disappointing data on US durable goods orders for January.Last month, the indicator fell by 4.5% compared to December when it jumped by 5.1%.In addition, renewed risk appetite has left USD on the sidelines.American stock indices finished yesterday's trading with a moderate rise, recovering by 0.2-0.6% after a sharp decline in the previous week.Taking advantage of the general weakening of the dollar, EUR/USD managed to recover from multi-week lows in the range of 1.0535-1.0530. The pair gained over 60 pips on Monday and closed in positive territory for the first time in five days, hitting 1.0610.On Tuesday, the greenback sank to its lowest level since Thursday, reaching the area of 104.40. Later, it managed to win back all the daily losses, rising by about 0.2% from the previous close near 104.60.The resumption of growth in Treasury yields on Tuesday after a modest retreat on Monday served as a tailwind for USD.Deteriorating risk sentiment also helped the US dollar to recover.The "rally of relief" after the correction in equity markets on Friday caused by a negative surprise in the US PCE price index turned out to be short-lived.Wall Street's key indices were down again on Tuesday.Traders continue to assess the risks of further tightening of the monetary policy by major central banks in the context of stubbornly high inflation.Back in January, investors were confident that a slowdown in economic growth would prompt Fed officials to pause the cycle of aggressive rate hikes but strong data has since changed this view.As a result, investors are reconsidering their soft-landing scenario and are worried that major central banks could tighten monetary conditions too much in response to positive data, triggering a deep recession."The market is aware that inflationary pressures in developed countries, namely in the US and the eurozone, are more stable than previously thought," Commerzbank said."This is a positive factor for the US dollar because the Fed is seen as being more proactive compared to the ECB. Thus, the EUR/USD levels near 1.1000 have not proved sustainable yet. The pair may struggle to stay above 1.0600 in the coming months," they said.Nordea strategists expect EUR/USD to drop occasionally to 1.0300 until the summer."We assume that the Fed and other central banks will continue to raise rates more than previously expected to tighten financial conditions and reduce inflation. Thus, a rate hike by the Fed would support the dollar, and risk-free market conditions associated with higher interest rates could put pressure on equity markets, further boosting interest in the safe-haven greenback," they said.Societe Generale believes that the EUR/USD pair will remain under downward pressure."The problem facing the ECB, as well as the Fed, is that it may have to extend the tightening cycle and thereby force a harder downturn in the economy. This could lead to a fall in stocks and credit markets. Since the beginning of the year, European securities have been outperforming their American counterparts, and the re-convergence will be a test of the prerequisites for the strengthening of the EUR/USD pair," bank economists said."The major currency pair has recently dropped by five figures over the past month on the back of a possible 60-basis-point rate hike implied Fed tightening. If the markets revise the rate forecast to 6%, it would be unwise to rule out further selling," they added.Stronger-than-expected data from the United States boosted yields in the US more than anywhere else and pushed the dollar higher against most currencies for the first time since it hit a cyclical peak last September, analysts at Capital Economics said."While the resilience of the US economy will allow the dollar to remain strong in the near term, we hold the view that recessions in most advanced economies and reduced risk appetite will eventually be the factor that returns USD to its cyclical high later this year," they said.Despite a recent bout of weakness, the greenback has gained 2.5% since early February and is close to posting its first monthly rise since last September.The 10-year US Treasury yield could rise by about 40 basis points in a month.The S&P 500 was down by more than 2% in February after a 6% jump in January.The market is now waiting for data on the US consumer price index which will be released on March 14.The data will have an impact on the Fed's policy on interest rates, as well as show whether the efforts of the central bank to slow inflation to the target level are bearing fruit.If fresh numbers point to accelerating US disinflation, stock markets could turn bullish again, thus triggering a return to the dollar's downtrend."But if instead the data released during March confirm the worst-case inflationary no-landing scenario, the resulting March madness could send the 10-year Treasury bond yield above its most recent high of 4.25% on October 24 and the S&P 500 tumbling toward its bear-market low of 3,577.03 on October 12," Yardeni Research said.In such a scenario, USD is sure to continue the uptrend and EUR/USD is set to decline."The repricing of the higher interest rate and reduced expectations of interest rate cuts later this year has breathed new life into last year's strong US dollar trading," MUFG Bank economists said.They believe that the recent greenback bounce has room for further development in the near term."After a break above 105.00, USD could retest its yearly high of 105.63 and then the 200-day moving average in the area just below 106.50," MUFG Bank strategists said.MUFG believes that the US dollar is the main driver of the EUR/USD exchange rate."We expect the pair to fall back to the support at 1.0330 near which the 200-day moving average runs," the experts said.Meanwhile, analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics believe that data on the consumer price index, which should be published before the next FOMC meeting, will dispel some of the market's fears.However, investors are unlikely to willingly sell the US currency until they become familiar with the next consumer price index data.In addition, the market admits that the path of inflation returning to the Fed's target of 2% may be longer and more tortuous."Inflation is likely to mean stability and upside potential for the US dollar in the near term, given the low unemployment rate. However, we expect this upside to be more limited, with EUR/USD targeting 1.0500 for the first half of this year," Bank of America said."We maintain our overall view on the currency market and believe that the overvaluation of the US dollar determines the long-term outlook, including our forecast of 1.1000 for the EUR/USD pair at the end of the year," they added.On Tuesday, the major currency pair tried to extend the growth recorded on Monday but failed to maintain positive momentum amid deteriorating market sentiment.The immediate obstacle for EUR/USD is seen at 1.0620 (the 50-day moving average), followed by 1.0660 (the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent downtrend) and the psychological level of 1.0700.On the other hand, a close below 1.0600 would trigger a drop to 1.0560 (20-day moving average) and then to 1.0520.

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European stock markets show declinesYesterday, European stock exchanges closed mostly with declines. The exception was the FTSE 100 index, which rose by 0.49%. All other indices dropped. The DAX index fell by 0.39%, the CAC 40 index decreased by 0.46%, the FTSE MIB lost 0.59%, and the IBEX 35 index slumped by 0.76%. The composite STOXX Europe 600 was down by 0.74%.European indicators dropped after the release of the latest statistical data on inflation in Germany. According to last month's results, the growth in consumer prices in the country increased to 9.3% from January's level of 9.2%. This indicator exceeded the forecasts of experts, who projected a reduction of 9%.In addition, France and Spain posted an upsurge in consumer prices over the past month.Today, the statistical data for all eurozone countries will be published. According to the preliminary forecast, consumer price growth over the past month is expected to decrease to 8.2% from the January level of 8.6%, as well as core inflation is forecasted to maintain at 5.3%.Skyrocketing inflation is causing fears among investors about a further increase in interest rates by the European regulator more than previously expected. According to analysts' forecasts, the interest rate is expected to rise by 0.5% this month from the current level of 2.5%. In the future, the rates may soar to 4% by February next year.Another factor was the eurozone manufacturing PMI which dropped to 48.5 from 48.8 on a monthly basis. At the same time, this indicator was in line with preliminary forecasts.At the same time, the growth of the UK manufacturing PMI was promoted by the release of the latest statistical data from China, which indicate the recovery of the country's economy as a result of the easing of restrictions since the beginning of 2023. In China, the industrial and service sectors expanded.Among the British FTSE 100 companies, Rio Tinto rose by 4.6%, Glencore gained 3.5%, Anglo American increased by 3.3%, as well as BHP Group added 2.3%. All companies listed above demonstrated the highest gains.The stocks of European companies were trading mixed. Thus, Siemens AG gained 0.4% due to the company's announcement about the creation of a new company Innomotics, which will start operating independently on July 1, 2023. This division will be engaged in the production of various types of engines and converters.By contrast, Puma SE fell by 6.8% due to a more than five-fold drop in net profits in the last quarter to €1.4 million, while revenues rose by 24% to €2.2 billion.In addition, the company's gross margin dropped to 44% as a result of higher promotional costs for products that need to be sold to make room in warehouses.Just Eat Takeaway.com NV declined by 3.2% due to a sharp increase in net losses last year, which was the result of large write-downs totaling €4.6 billion after the revaluation of previously acquired assets.On the contrary, Aston Martin Lagonda rose by 3.2%, despite the company's report of a 2.3-fold increase in the company's loss last year. One of the reasons for this was the weakening of the British currency against the US dollar.Beiersdorf decreased by 0.5%, despite the increase in revenues last year by 10.2%, to €8.8 billion. At the same time, the company predicts a decline in sales growth this year.

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Trading signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) on March 6-7, 2023: buy above $1,853 (200 EMA-21 SMA)Early in the European session, gold is trading around 1,852.80, above the 200 EMA and above the 21 SMA. We can see a bullish bias but no signs of exhaustion.According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that gold is entering an overbought zone. In the next few hours, gold could fall below 1,850. A technical correction toward the 21 SMA at 1,835 is likely.Last week's US Durable Goods Orders came in worse than expected. As a result, XAU/USD rallied from the low of 1,804. The performance was about $50 of profit which could mean a change in trend in the short term, but before, we should wait for a technical correction.This week, Chairman Jerome Powell will release the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy report. In the event that Powell communicates that it is unlikely that the interest rate increases by more than 0.50% again, the US dollar could be affected and could help gold resume its bullish cycle.According to the technical chart, gold is in a key zone. If it consolidates above 1,853 in the next few days, it could reach 4/8 Murray at 1,875 and finally could reach the psychological level of 1,900.According to the eagle indicator, gold is in an overbought zone (95-points). In case it trades below 1,850 we could expect it to consolidate around 1,843 (3/8 Murray). If it breaks below 1,835 (21 SMA), it could then fall until reaching the area of 1,818. At this level, gold left a GAP that still needs to be covered.Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell below 1,850, with targets at 1,843 and 1,835. On the other hand, in case the trade is above 1,853, we should continue buying with targets at 1,875 (4/8 Murray).

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Breaking forecast for EUR/USD on March 9, 2023Jerome Powell's speech led to a slump in the single currency and forced investors to revise their attitude toward the current state of affairs. Against the backdrop, all the macroeconomic reports were ignored yesterday. Notably, a lot of information was issued. Thus, the third estimate of the eurozone GDP was worse than the previous one. The economic growth contracted to 1.8% from 2.4%. This means that Europe may slip into a recession. Meanwhile, US employment increased by 242,000 instead of 191,000, thus pointing to further improvement in the US labor market. Both reports should have led to the appreciation of the greenback but the market got stuck. Investors are trying to predict the future actions of the Fed.Today, the market is likely to remain stagnant if the forecasts for the US unemployment claims meet reality. A change is expected to be insignificant. Thus, the number of initial claims may increase by 2,000, whereas the number of continuing claims may drop by 5,000. Such figures will hardly revive the market. However, traders should keep in mind that the US dollar is overbought and it may unexpectedly drop.The euro is stagnant but may rebound against the US dollar after a bearish rally recorded on March 7. Short positions have become overheated amid a sharp price change. This points to the euro's oversold conditions in the short-term periods.On the one-hour chart, the RSI managed to leave the oversold area thanks to the current stagnation. On the four-hour and daily charts, the indicator is hovering in the lower area of 30/50, which points to the mainly bearish sentiment among traders.On the four-hour and daily charts, the Alligator's MAs are headed downwards, which corresponds to the existing cycle. On the one-hour chart, the indicator is pointing to a pause in the downward cycle as MAs are intersecting each other.OutlookThe current stagnation within the range of 40 pips could be considered an accumulation process. This, in turn, may spur an outgoing impulse, indicating the price direction.The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the short-term period, indicators are signaling mixed opportunities amid stagnation. In the intraday and mid-term periods, indicators are still providing a bearish signal.

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Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 10/03/2023At first glance, it is not surprising that the pound was able to show quite good growth yesterday, as the data on unemployment claims in the United States was not only worse than expected, but also pointed to a clear deterioration of the situation in the labor market. For example, the number of initial applications has grown by 21,000 instead of the expected 2,000. The number of new applications, which was expected to fall by 5,000, jumped by 69,000. It turns out that the data only confirmed the validity of this growth. While its main reason was because the pound was oversold. The most important thing is that all the labor market data is coming out in different directions and it is quite obvious that the content of the report, which will be published today by the U.S. Labor Department, will be very different from the forecasts. It is just not clear in which direction it will head.The number of jobless claims (United States):Anyway, the start of the trading day isn't going to be very good for the pound as the pace of industrial production decline is expected to accelerate from -4.0% to -4.8% in Great Britain. Moreover, monthly GDP data is not expected to be very encouraging either as it should show a -0.2% drop of the economy. So the British economy is steadily sliding into recession.Industrial production (UK):The main event not only of the day, but also of the week, is the report of the United States Department of Labor. If we proceed from current forecasts, which are the only ones we can rely on for the time being, then everything looks good. With a stable level of unemployment, 210,000 new jobs should be created outside of agriculture. This is enough to keep the unemployment rate, which is already incredibly low, stable. And results like that should help the dollar strengthen. The problem is that the data will most likely not match the forecasts. But it's hard to tell whether it will be better or worse. In other words, investors will not take chances and will wait for the report and then they will make their decision.Unemployment Rate (United States):GBPUSD reduced the volume of short positions around 1.1800. As a result, there was a slowdown in the bearish cycle, and then the quote reversed. This movement caused the pound to recover relative to its decline on March 7.On the four-hour chart, during the process of recovery, the RSI crossed the 50 middle line and made its way upwards. This confirms the bullish sentiment.On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are intertwined with each other. This is the primary signal of the slowdown of the downward cycle. One the one-day chart, the indicator lines are directed downwards, which corresponds to the downward movement from the beginning of February.OutlookAs a result, the quote returned to the lower limit of the horizontal channel (1.1920/1.2150) it had already passed. At the moment, the 1.1920/1.1950 area may serve as resistance, and in terms of technical analysis, this can reduce bullish sentiment on the pound. This in turn allows the price to rebound.However, in case the bullish sentiment persists among traders, and the quote is able to stay above 1.2000, then the pound can rise further.The complex indicator analysis in the short-term and intraday periods indicate an upward bias or bullish sentiment, this is because the price bounced from 1.1800.

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 13/03/2023All of the recent labor market data in the United States clearly indicated that the content of the Labor Department report would be very different from what had been predicted, and the only question was in which direction. Since all of this data showed different directions. This is exactly what happened. And everything went according to the negative scenario. The unemployment rate, which should have remained unchanged, increased from 3.4% to 3.6%. And so the dollar instantly began to lose its positions. And quite substantially at that. And it didn't matter that 311,000 new jobs were created outside of agriculture. Which is 101,000 more than it was forecasted. The very growth of the unemployment rate clearly points to the worsening situation on the labor market, the state of which bound the hands of the Federal Reserve, forcing it not only to raise interest rates, but even consider a 50 bps hike, despite the slowdown of inflation. In other words, the content of the United States Department of Labor report removes any questions about the extent of the upcoming refinancing rate hike, which will pass at the minimum bar. This is the main reason why the dollar weakened.The unemployment rate (United States):But the problems for the dollar seems to be just beginning, because on Friday night, Silicon Valley Bank announced bankruptcy, one of the second ten largest credit institutions in the United States. This is the biggest bankruptcy since 2008. Almost immediately thereafter, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York decided to close Signature Bank. According to the central bank's statements, the reason was systemic risks caused by massive deposit outflows. At this moment, events are developing in a typical way for a banking crisis - the bankruptcy of one bank entails a chain reaction, as the other banks that issued short interbank loans to the bankrupt credit organization face liquidity shortages and are not able both to return the funds already raised by them or provide credit resources to other financial institutions. If monetary authorities did not immediately intervene, other bankruptcies would follow. For this reason there is immediate talk of the need to turn on the printing press and provide immediate emergency aid to credit institutions. This is nothing but another iteration of quantitative easing, or trivial money emission. And a $1.1 trillion figure even came up. In addition, some media have already found the culprit in the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank - the Federal Reserve. They say that the increase in interest rates has severely shaken the stability of the financial system. It's very reminiscent of an attempt to put pressure on the central bank to start cutting interest rates. As a result, both the prospect of switching on the printing press and reduction of the refinancing rate will weigh on the dollar and facilitate its further weakening. And the situation is so serious that Joe Biden is speaking about it today, and much will depend on the words of the President of the United States.The euro strengthened in value by about 100 points against the U.S. dollar last Friday. This was caused by a massive reduction of dollar positions due to the release of the U.S. labor market report. As a result, the quote reached the local highs of the week.On the four-hour chart, the RSI was in the overbought zone during the bullish momentum, which indicates that long positions could "overheat" in the short term. The RSI is moving within the 70 zone, which is also consistent with an overbought signal.On the four-hour and one-hour charts, the Alligator's MAs are pointing upwards, which points to the bullish momentum. However, on the daily chart, it is still on the bearish cycle from the beginning of February.OutlookIn this situation, keeping the price above 1.0700 might push the euro to rise further, ignoring the sign that it is overbought in the short term. However, things could change if the euro falls below 1.0650.The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the intraday and short-term periods, technical indicators are pointing to bullish sentiment due to the upward momentum.

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Trading Signal for GOLD (XAU/USD) for March 17 - 20, 2023: key level $1,921 (21 SMA - symmetrical triangle)Early in the European session, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 1,927, above the 21 SMA, and within a symmetrical triangle formed in the last 48 hours.The outlook for gold remains bullish. If it consolidates above the daily pivot point (1,920), it could continue rising to reach 1,945, the level which coincides with the third weekly resistance.A technical bounce around the 21 SMA located at 1,921 could give us the opportunity to resume buying with targets at 1,937 and 1,945.On the contrary, in case gold breaks the uptrend channel formed since March 10 and consolidates below 1,917 in the next few hours, we could expect a further bearish movement and the instrument could reach 5/8 Murray located at 1,906 and finally could fall towards the EMA 200 located at 1,882.According to the 1-hour chart, gold has upside potential. It is likely that if it trades above 1,920 (21 SMA), we could expect it to reach the resistance zone of 1,945.Our trading plan is to watch a key level of 1,921 which could set the trend for gold. If it trades below this level in the next few hours, it will be considered an opportunity to sell and could accelerate the bearish movement until the price covers the gap left at 1,867.

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Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 20/03/2023The US industrial production report turned out to be much worse than expected and the previous data was revised from 0.8% to 0.5%. And instead of slowing to 0.2%, the industrial production showed a decline of 0.2% year-on-year. These results made it possible for the pound to fully recover its losses, which the pound suffered right after the Credit Suisse announcement, which triggered the euro's fall and eventually pulled the pound down. The single currency has not returned to its previous values and it will probably do that during the day. Moreover, we found out that Credit Suisse has been purchased by another Swiss bank - UBS. So it looks like Europe managed to save the emerging bank crisis, which gives investors optimism of course. Anyway, the GBP has won back its losses, and now it will wait for the euro. So, a temporary stagnation is the most likely outcome. Moreover, the macroeconomic calendar is totally empty today.Industrial Production (United States):GBP/USD ended last week with growth. As a result, it came close to the local high of the uptrend, which indicates the bullish sentiment prevails.On the four-hour, one-hour and one-day charts, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the upper area of the indicator, which confirms the signal of growth of the volume of long positions on the euro.On the four-hour and one-day charts, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which corresponds to the bullish momentum.OutlookWe can assume that keeping the price stable above 1.2200 will strengthen long positions in the market, which in turn will open the way towards 1.2300. However, falling below 1.2100 may lead to another move towards the psychological level of 1.2000.The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the intraday, medium-term and short-term periods, technical indicators are pointing to bullish sentiment.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD trading plan for beginners on March 23, 2023Details of the economic calendar on March 22The U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate for the eighth time in a year. During the March meeting, the regulator expectedly raised the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75–5%. The central bank also stressed some additional policy firming ahead.As for the banking sector, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly said that the U.S. banking system is reliable and stable. According to him, recent events are likely to tighten credit conditions for households and businesses and put pressure on economic activity, hiring, and inflation.Analysis of trading charts from March 22EUR/USD broke through the 1.0800 resistance level during the inertial movement. As a result, there was an increase in the volume of long positions, which indicated the recovery of the euro relative to the decline in February.GBP/USD jumped above 1.2300 during the general sale of dollar positions. This move indicates a subsequent price recovery from the fall in February.Economic calendar for March 23The Bank of England will hold a meeting today, where interest rate is expected to be raised by 25 basis points to 4.25%. Of particular interest will be the regulator's commentary on future actions. Note that inflation data released yesterday showed an acceleration in growth to 10.4%. This may serve as a basis for a further interest rate hike.Time targeting:Bank of England meeting results – 12:00 UTCEUR/USD trading plan for March 23Based on the technical signal that the euro is overbought in the intraday period, we can assume that a pullback will appear on the market. During which, there will be a regrouping of long positions. However, speculators may ignore signals from technical analysis in vain. In this case, the price may move towards the local high of the medium-term upward trend (1.1033).GBP/USD trading plan for March 23A stable holding of the price above the level of 1.2300 allows the further growth of the British currency up to complete recovery. However, it is worth taking into account the technical factor of overbought, which can reach a critical point in this price move.

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 27/03/2023At first glance, preliminary estimates of PMIs in Europe turned out to be very good. At 55.6, the services Purchasing Managers' Index hit a 10-month high in March, up from 52.7 in February, with a forecast of 52.3 points. In other words, it should have declined, but instead it rose. Due to that the flash composite output index, which should have decreased from 52.0 to 51.3 points, rose more-than-expected to 54.1 in March. Only the manufacturing PMI fell to a four-month low of 47.1 from 48.5 in the previous month, though it should have increased to 49.8 points. To a certain extent this was what prevented the euro from rising further.Composite PMI (Europe):And after the opening of the US trading session, the euro fell, because in America, not only were the same PMIs better than forecasts, in fact, they turned out to be much better. The US Manufacturing PMI in March was 49.3 points, up from the previous value of 47.3 points. It was expected to have fallen to 47.0 points. Meanwhile, the Services PMI jumped to 53.8 points instead of increasing from 50.6 to 51.0. As a result, the composite purchasing managers index rose from 50.1 points to 53.3 points, with a forecast of 49.0 points.Composite PMI (United States):Today, the macroeconomic calendar is completely empty and the market is likely to consolidate around the reached values.The euro entered a bearish correction after it sharply rose last week. The pair broke through a resistance level of 1.0800. As a result, the volume of short positions increased.On the four-hour chart, the RSI downwardly crossed the 50 middle line, thus reflecting bearish sentiment among traders.On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are intertwined, signaling a slowing bull cycle. On the one-day chart, the Alligator's MAs are still headed upwards.OutlookBased on the corrective phase, its scale has already reached the possible limit. Therefore, the euro can still recover and climb above 1.0800. However, in case the bearish sentiment persists, and the quote stays below 1.0700, the market situation may still change.The complex indicator analysis points to a correction in the short-term and intraday periods.

Oil prices have many positive factors for growthOil prices were up and down on Wednesday afternoon. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for May delivery was trading at $73.39 a barrel, up 0.36% on the New York Mercantile Exchange.Oil prices have been hit especially hard by the banking crisis - falling all of 13% two weeks ago. However, last week ended with the price rising by about 3%.Oil prices were also moving up on Tuesday. The market, obviously, overestimated the prospects amid a decline of exports from Iraq's Kurdistan and considering the dynamics of stocks in the United States. The activity of M&A in the US banking sector was also extremely positive.Recall that oil pumping from Kurdistan through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline was suspended. It means that 370 million barrels a day of oil from Kurdistan and another 75,000 from the fields of northern Iraq simply would not come to the world market. And it's all about the International Chamber of Commerce, which decided that the supply of this oil is illegal.It is clear that oil prices benefit from this supply cut in light of an already tight market. However, we don't know how long the Kurdish supply will stop.Meanwhile, strikes are ongoing in France, leading to the shutdown of some major refineries, in particular the TotalEnergies plant in Gonfreville-l'Orcher, which processed 240,000 barrels of oil a day. And on Monday, the strike at the refinery was extended for another three days, which created a temporary but very negative impact on crude oil consumption in the European Union. At the same time, problems with fuel availability at gas stations are worsening in France, adding to the already significant pressure on consumers' costs.Meanwhile, a weekly review by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy reported that the country's commercial oil inventories fell by 7.5 million barrels, or 1.6%, last week.According to the terms of the OPEC+ agreement, the allowed production level for Russia in February was 10.478 million bpd. In other words, Russia did not produce about 537,000 bpd in the reporting month in order to reach its full production quota.Since December 5, oil sanctions came into force, according to which the European Union does not accept the Russian oil, which is transported by sea. In addition, the G7 countries, Australia and the European Union imposed a price cap on Russian oil transported by sea at $60 per barrel, and more expensive oil can no longer be transported and insured. Russia, in response to such measures, banned from February 1 to supply oil to foreign parties if the contracts directly or indirectly provide for the use of the marginal price fixing mechanism.

introduction ofAnalysis The Forex market trading entails analyzing the market on a daily basis to make knowledgeable buying and selling choices. Daily evaluation is crucial for forex investors to live updated with the present day market tendencies, news, and events which could impact the currency exchange fees. Here are the important thing headings to keep in mind for daily evaluation in forex buying and selling: 1. Economic Calendar: Economic occasions have a extensive effect on the foreign exchange market. Forex traders must maintain track of the financial calendar to live knowledgeable of critical announcements together with hobby charge choices, GDP, inflation facts, and employment records releases. These occasions can reason tremendous volatility in the currency exchange fees, and buyers want to plot their trades as a result. 2. Technical Analysis: Technical evaluation includes analyzing charts and figuring out tendencies and styles to are expecting future price actions. Forex traders use numerous technical signs including Moving Averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Bollinger Bands to investigate the market and make buying and selling choices. Traders can also use computerized trading equipment that use technical analysis to execute trades. 3. Fundamental Analysis: Fundamental evaluation entails analyzing monetary and political elements that could impact foreign exchange quotes. Forex buyers ought to live informed about global information and events that may affect the market, including political instability, trade disputes, and herbal disasters. 4. Market Sentiment: Market sentiment refers to the general mind-set of buyers towards a particular forex. The Forex market buyers can gauge marketplace sentiment by studying price actions and trading volumes. Understanding marketplace sentiment can assist traders assume rate moves and make informed trading decisions. 5. Risk Management: the Forex market buying and selling entails a high degree of danger, and investors have to have a hazard management plan in place. Daily analysis should consist of an assessment of the capacity risks and rewards of every alternate. Traders ought to additionally recall the usage of forestall-loss orders and restriction orders to reduce losses and maximize profits .In conclusion, every day evaluation is crucial for foreign exchange traders to make informed trading decisions. By considering those key headings, investors can stay up to date with marketplace developments and information, and count on capacity risks and rewards. Successful forex buying and selling requires a combination of technical evaluation, essential analysis, and danger control techniques.

Markets cautious ahead of the US inflation report. Overview of USD, EUR, GBPMarkets were cautious on Wednesday morning as they await the results of talks between Biden and House Speaker McCarthy on the US debt ceiling. Both sides are not willing to consider short-term solutions that would allow raising the borrowing ceiling and are not ready for compromises. A quick solution should not be expected, and perhaps there will be a threat of a technical default while a solution is being worked out.The US labor market report for April contained rather contradictory data. Overall, the data was stronger than forecasts - 253,000 new jobs were created (forecasted 179,000), however, the data for the past 2 months was revised downward by 185,000, which offset all the positive news. The average hourly income was 0.5% against the forecast of 0.3%, which completely nullifies expectations of a rapid decline in inflation.The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to its lowest level since 2013, at 89 points.The key event of Wednesday is the US Consumer Price Index. Forecasts do not imply changes - monthly inflation growth rates are expected at 0.4%, annual rates at 6%, and any deviation from the forecasts may cause a strong market reaction.EUR/USDThe European Central Bank raised its rate by 25 basis points, which was lower than the expected 50 basis points, and decided to stop the reinvestment of the APP program from July 1, which matched the forecasts.Inflation estimates have not changed overall, and the reasons why the ECB refrained from raising the rate by 50 basis points can be sought in recent events in the banking sector. Perhaps banks perceive the threat of a large-scale banking crisis more seriously than it seemed; the latest survey showed that lending rates have fallen sharply, and lending conditions have tightened.Comments on the ECB's unexpected decision were numerous and often contradictory. In general, their tone boils down to the statement that "the battle with inflation is far from being won," and the slowdown in rate hikes will allow keeping rates high on a longer trajectory. Indeed, a decline in overall inflation due to falling energy prices is evident, but core inflation has a completely different trajectory.ECB President Lagarde mentioned several times at the press conference that the tightening of credit conditions has begun to spread to the real economy. Overall, Lagarde tried to appear hawkish, but markets reacted neutrally to the ECB meeting's outcome.The net long position in the euro increased by 0.6 billion during the reporting week, reaching 23.8 billion, with speculative positioning remaining confidently bullish. The calculated price, however, has decreased slightly, suggesting the development of a corrective bearish movement.A week earlier, we assumed that EUR/USD would begin to decline towards support at 1.0910. There is no reason to abandon this scenario yet; support has not been reached, but the chances of a further decline remain high. In case of a confident breakthrough at 1.0910, we assume further movement towards support at 1.0875.GBP/USDThe Bank of England will hold another monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Market expectations suggest an interest rate hike of 25 basis points to 4.5% and a cumulative increase of 50-75 basis points by the third quarter. Forecasts for inflation, the labor market, and GDP will also be published.The UK is experiencing more robust inflationary pressure than the US or the Eurozone, with overall inflation above 10% YoY and core inflation consistently above 6% without signs of slowing down.According to the CFTC report, the net long position in the pound decreased during the reporting week from 0.5 billion to 0.1 billion, with positioning being neutral. The calculated price, however, continues to stay above the long-term average, so chances for continued growth remain. Overall, the pound looks stronger than the euro at present.The pound updated its local high, getting to 1.2668 the medium-term target of 1.2750 has not been reached, but it is still valid. Support at 1.2575, if GBP/USD stays above this level, restoring growth and updating the high is possible. In case the corrective decline develops, a decline to the support area 1.2430/50 is possible, where there will be an attempt to create a basis for renewal of growth. There are no grounds for stronger decrease yet.

Hot forecast for EURUSD on 12/05/2023Yesterday, everything revolved exclusively around the Bank of England meeting. And its results were the reason why the euro got significantly weaker. More precisely, the pound was falling, and through the dollar index, it pulled other currencies with it. And it's not so much about the BoE hiking interest rates by 25 bps, but rather about the following comments. Despite another increase in inflation, the British central bank signaled that it may pause rate hikes. It turns out that the BoE is not so much engaged in the fight against rising consumer prices, but rather follows in the wake of the larger central banks. Even though this is not in line with the emerging economic situation in the UK itself. Which has spooked investors.So the euro's fall was not only impressive, but it also had nothing to do with the economic dynamics directly in the eurozone itself. Moreover, the single currency has gone beyond the range in which it has been for almost a whole month. Based on this, we can assume that today we will see a kind of rebound, and a return to the usual limits from 1.0950 to 1.1050.During an intensive downward movement, the EUR/USD pair reached the 1.0900 level, which points to a change in the volume of short positions. As a result, a slowdown-pullback occurred relative to this level.On the four-hour chart, the RSI indicator is moving in the lower area of 30/50, which corresponds to the downward cycle, as well as the touch of the 1.0900 level.On the daily chart, two out of three of the Alligator's MAs intertwined, which could be an initial sign of a slowdown in the medium-term trend. On the 4-hour chart, it reflects a bear cycle, which corresponds to the current movement.OutlookIn this situation, traders are considering an option of forming a pullback, which will eventually return the euro to its previous price ranges. However, if the pullback turns out to be false and the quote remains below the 1.0900 level in the daily period, then in this case, a technical signal about forming a full-scale correction through an uptrend may emerge.The comprehensive indicator analysis in the short-term points to a pullback. In the intraday period, the bearish sentiment is still in force.

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 15/05/2023The first estimate of the UK's GDP for the first quarter was supposed to show the danger of an approaching recession, as the economic growth rate could slow from 0.6% to 0.3%. But in fact, it dropped to 0.2%. So, the recession is getting closer. And naturally, this had a negative impact on the pound. Another thing is that a noticeable reaction only started at the opening of the US trading session. And the fall of the pound, and along with it the euro, largely coincided with rumors about a new package of sanctions against Russia.Change in GDP (United Kingdom):The discussion is about the possibility of introducing a complete ban on pipeline gas supplies. That is, a ban on gas supplies to Europe. It seems like the West has already abandoned energy supplies from Russia, when in fact, supplies are still being transported. And they are carried out precisely through pipelines. If such a ban is introduced, Europe will face an even greater energy deficit. It may well cope with this problem, as happened last year, but the cost of energy will become even higher, which will have an even more serious impact on European industry. This means that Europe will be the main victim. This is exactly what caused the fall of European currencies. Today's eurozone industrial production report, the growth rate of which is expected to slow from 2.0% to 1.1%, could confirm these fears. So, following the euro, the pound may fall even further.The GBP/USD pair has lost about 200 points in value over the past week. This momentum has led to a full-scale correction, which is shown by the medium-term uptrend.On the four-hour chart, the RSI indicator has fallen into the oversold zone during a sharp price change, which indicates an abundance of short positions in the English currency.On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are headed downwards, which corresponds to the direction of the correctional movement.OutlookIn this situation, a technical signal shows that the pair is oversold in the intraday period. This may indicate a slowdown and as a result, the end of the correction. However, we are dealing with a momentum and trend, in which speculators may simply ignore that technical signal. In this case, keeping the price below the value of 1.2440 may push the pair to fall towards the 1.2350 level.The complex indicator analysis points to a downward cycle in the short-term and intraday periods. In the medium-term, the indicator is still providing a bullish signal.