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GBP/USD. August 10, 2020 – The sterling fell to 1.30

The British pound continues to decline against the US dollar at the start of a new trading week. The American currency was supported by strong data on the labor market, published last Friday.

At the same time, the pressure on the sterling itself increased after the announcement of the results of the meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday. The regulator kept the base interest rate at a record low level of 0.1% and left unchanged the parameters for purchasing government and corporate bonds. At the same time, the unemployment forecast suggested an increase in the indicator to 7.5% in 2020 and a gradual decline in 2021. The central bank also does not expect the country's GDP to grow to pre-crisis levels, at least until the end of 2021.

The unsuccessful negotiations on a post-Brexit trade deal also add to the negative effect on the British currency. Senior negotiators from the EU and the UK have repeatedly noted the lack of progress.

Thus, the GBP/USD pair reached the 1.3000 level. The RSI indicator is directed downward, which signals further weakening of the pound sterling.

EUR/USD. August 10, 2020 – Dollar is growing, playing back positive statistics on the labor market

At the beginning of the new trading week, the US dollar continues to moderately strengthen, approaching 1.1740. The currency was supported by a block of statistics on the labor market, published on Friday. The unemployment rate improved in July and amounted to 10.2% against the previous figure of 11.1%. The forecast assumed a mark of 10.5%.

The number of jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 1.763 million against the forecast of growth of 1.530 million. Average hourly wages in the United States increased by 0.2% m / m, which is well above forecasts. Tonight, attention should be paid to the number of job openings in the US labor market.

The dollar also acted as a defensive asset after Donald Trump signed an executive order banning the use of two popular Chinese applications WeChat and Tiktok. The ban will take effect next month.

Today the trading day will be calm. The dollar will continue to rise slightly towards the 1.1700 area.

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EUR/USD. August 11, 2020 – Euro grows on positive data from Germany

The euro is showing signs of recovery on Tuesday, hitting the 1.1800 level. The single European currency was supported by the data from the ZEW Institute on the index of economic sentiment in Germany: the indicator in August amounted to 71.5 points, which turned out to be significantly higher than forecasts and the previous value of 59.3 points. Experts had expected the indicator to decline to 58.0.

At the same time, pressure on the dollar exchange rate is exerted by the expectation of actions by the US financial authorities: the Ministry of Finance will today redeem bonds in the amount of $10 billion, and the Fed will buy back bonds in the open market in the amount of $2.42 billion. Thus, $12.42 billion will be injected into the US financial system , which will have a negative impact on the dollar.

Tonight you should pay attention to the data on producer prices in the US. Their decline should slow down from -0.8% to -0.7%. On a monthly basis, prices may rise by 0.3%. Given the fact that this is a leading indicator for inflation, it can be concluded that inflation in the United States is unlikely to decline in the near future. And this is definitely a positive factor for the American currency.

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EUR/USD. August 12, 2020 – Euro is growing moderately towards the 1.18 area

The euro continues to moderately strengthen against the dollar after the publication of positive macroeconomic data from Germany. The index of investor confidence in the country's economy jumped in August to 71.5 points from 59.3 points in July. Experts predicted a decrease in the indicator to 58 points.

At the same time, the US dollar also received some support after the publication of the PPI indicator. Producer price index rose 0.6% month-on-month in July, better than forecasted 0.3%. This was the highest growth rate since October 2018.

Today you should pay attention to the data on inflation in the United States. And since the PPI is a leading indicator of inflation, it can be assumed that the consumer price index is growing. Experts predict an increase in the indicator from 0.6% to 0.7%. This is definitely a positive factor for the American currency.

The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1770. During the day, we continue to follow the news publications.

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Brent. August 13, 2020 – Oil returned to growth after the report on US oil inventories

Oil quotes again started to rise to$ 45.50 per barrel. The prices were supported by the data on oil reserves from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy. According to the latest figures, stocks of raw materials in the reporting week fell by 4.5 million barrels, to 514.1 million barrels. Analysts predicted a reduction of 2 million barrels.

At the same time, gasoline stocks fell by 722 thousand barrels, to 247.1 million barrels, while experts expected a decline of 800 thousand barrels. The report also showed that oil production in the United States over the past week fell by 300 thousand barrels per day, to 10.7 million barrels per day.

In addition, the growth in Brent quotes is due to expectations of a further recovery in demand for hydrocarbons after the quarantine restrictions. Many also believe that fuel demand will increase in the fall.

However, the risks of weakening Brent still remain: growing tensions between the US and China continue to put pressure on the oil market. The next round of negotiations will begin this coming Saturday, while oil prices may test the resistance of $46 per barrel.

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EUR/USD. August 14, 2020 – Euro weakens under pressure from weak statistics

The euro is moving almost horizontally above the 1.1800 level. The currency is under some pressure from macroeconomic data: the euro zone's GDP for the II quarter collapsed by 12.1% in quarterly terms and by 9.0% in annual terms. At the same time, experts predicted a 15% decline in annual GDP, so there is some positive for the euro.

The trade balance of the euro area in June amounted to 17.1 billion euros, which was weaker than expected.

Additional pressure on the European currency rate is exerted by the absence of any effects from stimulating the economy, into which a huge amount of financial resources were poured. However, time is passing, and there are no signs of stabilization yet, which leads to sales of the euro.

Tonight you should pay attention to the data on retail sales for July in the United States, as well as statistics on industrial production. Experts predict an acceleration in sales growth from 1.1% to 1.9%, which will support the dollar.

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EUR/USD. August 17, 2020 – Dollar weakens under inflation pressure

EUR/USD continues to strengthen weakly at the start of the new trading week, trading at 1.1850. The reason for the weakness of the US dollar is in the latest inflation statistics. The granting of benefits to Americans amid a weak economy has led to an increase in inflation. At the same time, the Fed's interest rate is declining, which feeds the weakness of the US currency. According to the latest data, the consumer price index in the US in July accelerated growth to 1% in annual terms from 0.6% in June, while analysts had expected 0.8%. In monthly terms, the growth was 0.6% against the forecasted 0.3%.

However, today the dollar may recover somewhat, since the US Treasury will raise $ 62.48 billion from the market by placing Treasury bonds, which is the maximum since July 31 (then the Ministry of Finance raised $ 63 billion, which caused an increase in dollar quotes). At that time, the situation may repeat itself.

The economic calendar is practically empty today. The pair will continue to trade in the range of 1.18-1.19.

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GBP/USD. August 18, 2020 – The sterling is located in the area of local highs just below 1.32

On Tuesday, the British currency is trading in the area of local highs at 1.3167. The US dollar is under pressure from Friday's data: the index of current conditions from the University of Michigan fell in August from 82.8 to 82.5 points, while experts expected the indicator to decline to 81.8 points. The consumer sentiment index rose to 72.8 points against 72.5 points a month earlier.

The economic calendar for today is almost empty, so market participants continue to play this news. Only data on construction in the United States will attract attention. Experts predict an increase in the number of building permits issued in July from 1.258 million to 1.313 million.

Tomorrow the dynamics of the pound will be affected by the data on inflation in the UK. The forecast assumes that the CPI will remain at 0.6% on an annualized basis.

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Brent. August 19, 2020 – Oil has stabilized in the area of local maximums

Brent quotes continue to trade at $45 per barrel amid an ambiguous fundamental background. Market participants are awaiting the outcome of the OPEC+ ministerial committee meeting, as well as the release of official data on changes in US oil reserves.

Analysts predict another decline in inventories by 2.7 million barrels per week. However, yesterday's report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) reflected an increase in reserves by 1.1 million barrels.

Oil prices rose to $ 45.50 earlier this week following reports of the effectiveness of the OPEC+ deal. According to polls, in July the alliance countries fulfilled their obligations by more than 90%, which was a historical maximum.

Today, attention should be paid to the meeting of the OPEC+ Monitoring Committee. The coalition is expected to take a wait-and-see approach after the decision to cut production cuts in August from 9.7 million barrels per day to 7.7 million barrels per day.

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EUR/USD. August 20, 2020 – US Federal Reserve meeting minutes supported dollar

On Thursday, the euro started to decline, reaching 1.1800 at the moment. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1830. The dollar was supported by the publication of the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. This time the regulator did not mention the possibility of expanding economic stimulation, which turned out to be a positive factor for the American currency.

At the same time, the Central Bank noted that there are multiple risks associated, first of all, with the uncertain situation due to coronavirus and deflation. And if the pandemic continues, the US economy will again be hit hard.

Today we should pay attention to the publication of data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Experts predict a further reduction in the number of applications for benefits, from 963 thousand to 925 thousand. The publication of the minutes of the ECB meeting on monetary policy will also attract attention.

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EUR/USD. August 21, 2020 – Euro fell below $1.18

At the end of the week, the euro showed a sharp decline to the level of 1.1780. The strong support for the US dollar was brought by the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. The regulator made it clear that in the near future it does not intend to soften monetary policy, despite the risks present.

The dollar is growing, even despite yesterday's statistics on unemployment in the United States. The number of applications for unemployment benefits for the week unexpectedly rose to 1.106 million against 0.971 million a week earlier. The forecast assumed a reduction to 0.930 million. However, investors still hope for a quick stabilization of the labor market, which gives the greenback additional support.

Today we should pay attention to the indexes of business activity in the US manufacturing sector, analysts expect growth in indicators. House sales data will also be of interest. The eurozone will present a preliminary calculation of the index of activity in the service sector for August, as well as data on the manufacturing sector of the European region.

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USD/CAD. August 31, 2020 – Canadian dollar at highs

At the beginning of the week, the quotes of the USD/CAD pair dropped to the area of local minimums of 1.3050 against the background of the weakness of the US dollar after J. Powell's speech last week. The politician announced a new targeting of average inflation and a significant extension of the period around zero interest rates.

At the same time, the Canadian dollar was supported by Friday's macroeconomic data: although Canada's GDP fell by 38.7% in the second quarter, it turned out to be better than the forecasted fall by 39.6%. On a monthly basis, the Canadian economy showed growth at all by 6.5% against the forecast of 5.6%.

Today is a relatively calm trading day as the economic calendar is almost empty.

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EUR/USD. September 01, 2020 | Euro approaches 2-year highs in the 1.20 area

On Tuesday, the euro continues to approach the highs of April 2018 at 1.2000. At the beginning of the new trading week, dollar sales resumed after the publication of data from China: the growth of activity in the service sector in August increased from 54.2 to 55.2 points. The index of business activity in the industrial sector in August was 51.0 against 51.1 in July. The lull in US-China relations has also supported the bullish trend in risky assets.

Today we should pay attention to the data on inflation in Germany, which turned out to be worse than expected. Labor market statistics turned out to be better than forecasted: the number of unemployed in Germany in August fell by 9 thousand – to 2.915 million people. Unemployment remained at 6.4%, the August 2015 high.

Consumer prices in the euro zone in August fell by 0.2% in annual terms. The fall in prices in annual terms was recorded for the first time since May 2016. Experts predicted an average growth of 0.2%. Unemployment in 19 eurozone countries rose to 7.9% in July, the highest level since November 2018.

At the same time, the epidemiological situation in Spain and France continues to deteriorate, which may put pressure on the euro in the short term.

In the evening hours, data from the US will be of interest: on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector for August, as well as the ISM manufacturing index for August and data on the change in the volume of expenses in the construction sector for July.

Brent. September 1, 2020 | Oil trades in different directions

Oil prices show mixed trading dynamics. Yesterday, Brent quotes rose to the level of $46.50, but in the end the initiative remained with the sellers, who sent the asset to $45.30 per barrel. The current Brent quote is $45.80.

Local support to prices was provided today by data from China, according to which the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector in August rose from 54.2 to 55.2 points. The dynamics of growth has been maintained for the sixth month in a row. The last decline under the 50 level was recorded in February. Additional positive for oil prices is brought by the weakness of the US dollar throughout the Forex market.

At the same time, the data on the volume of oil production in the USA exerted pressure on prices. According to the EIA, production in June increased by 4.2% and reached 10.4 million barrels per day. However, further increases in production are in question as Hurricane Laura severely damaged a number of refineries in the Gulf of Mexico.

The further dynamics of oil prices will be influenced by tomorrow's report from the US Department of Energy on crude oil reserves in the country. If the data shows a decrease in volumes, then buyers will have a good reason to renew the highs.

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EUR/USD. September 02, 2020 | Euro has suspended the fall at 1.1850

The euro is showing a corrective decline against the dollar, reaching 1.1850 after yesterday's gains to highs in the 1.20 area. The quotes were pressured by macroeconomic data from Europe: the final index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone in August remained at 51.7 points. In Germany, the same indicator was lower than the previous value (52.2 points against 53.0).

Preliminary data on inflation in the eurozone for August reflected an increase of 0.4% in annual terms. The forecast assumed a decline to 0.9% y/y after July to 1.2%. By itself, inflation in August fell by 0.2% y/y against expectations of growth by 0.2 y/y. Today, the euro was under pressure from data from Germany, according to which retail sales fell 0.9% month-on-month in July, which was worse than expected.

The statistics from the USA also disappointed the markets: construction costs in July grew by only 0.1% m/m against expectations of growth by 1.0% and the previous decline by 0.5%.

The 1.1850 level managed to contain the onslaught of dollar bulls. The RSI indicator has stabilized in the neutral zone, which signals the formation of a flat at the current levels.

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Brent. September 03, 2020 – Oil declines despite shrinking US stocks

Brent crude oil shows a decline on Thursday, weakening to $43.40 a barrel and hitting a new low since early August. Quotes are falling, even despite yesterday's report from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, according to which the commercial oil reserves in the country fell by 9.4 million, to 498.4 million barrels. Reduction of stocks of raw materials in the United States has been observed for the sixth consecutive week. Despite this, US oil reserves still exceed the 5-year average by about 14%.

The asset was under pressure from the data that the demand for gasoline fell, and the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic is proceeding at a slow pace. According to the EIA, gasoline stocks fell by 4.3 million barrels, to 234.86 million barrels, distillate stocks fell by 1.7 million barrels, to 177.52 million barrels.

Further dynamics of oil will depend on statistics on the US labor market, which will be released tomorrow. Given that yesterday's ADP report was worse than expected, the official statistics may also disappoint the markets and put pressure on the US dollar.

USD/CAD. September 03, 2020 – Looney continues to weaken, losing oil support

The Canadian dollar continues to weaken against the US dollar, reaching 1.31 after strengthening to 1.2990 last week. Earlier, the loonie was supported by the widespread weakness of the American currency and the rise in oil prices to the area of $46.50 per barrel.

However, it should be noted that the fundamental background has changed slightly, despite the correctional decline of the Canadian. In the US, the debate continues on the adoption of measures to stimulate the economy, and it was reported that the Treasury Department again rejected the proposals of the Democrats.

Today we should pay attention to the statistics on business activity in the US services sector for August. The US dollar may also be supported by data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits: experts predict a decrease in the indicator from 1.006K to 980K. Labor market reports will be released tomorrow in both the US and Canada.

In the meantime, the quotation of the USD/CAD pair is growing with a target in the area of 1.3130. Additional pressure on the Canadian dollar is exerted by a decline in the oil market, where Brent quotes weakened to $43.45 per barrel.

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EUR/USD. September 04, 2020 – Dollar is in anticipation of data on the US labor market

EUR/USD is consolidating at 1.1840 in anticipation of important macroeconomic news. Today the focus of the markets is centered around the statistics on the US labor market for August. And the further rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve will depend on how strong the indicators turn out to be.

Recently, the dollar exchange rate has been under pressure from expectations of a new stimulus for the American economy, but if today's data are better than expected, then financial injections may not be required.

So, the forecasts of investors according to statistics are as follows: unemployment may fall to 9.8% from 10.2% in July. Average hourly wages are expected to remain unchanged after an earlier rise of 0.2% m/m. The number of jobs outside the agricultural sector may increase by 1.375 million after rising 1.763 million earlier.

Already published statistics from the United States showed an increase in labor productivity by 10.1% in the second quarter of the year. The index of business activity in the US services sector in August from Markit amounted to 55.0 points against the previous value of 54.8. At the same time, official data reflected a decrease in the indicator: to 56.9 points from 58.1 earlier.