ای aud/usd کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

USD/JPY ka Technical Tajziya
Main USD/JPY pair ko hourly chart par dekh raha hoon. Yahan ek downward trend channel tha, phir jab trend channel ki neeche wali boundaries break hui, toh buyer ka volume aa gaya. Yani neeche ki boundaries break hui, magar seller ka volume nahi tha, aur pair wapas trend channel mein aa gaya. Phir buyer ne yahan volume lena shuru kiya, jo pair ke mazeed growth ka ishara tha. Maine phir andaza lagaya ke pair yahan se growth resume kar sakta hai. Aur jaisa ke hum dekh rahe hain, ek ascending trend channel bana, lekin iske bawajood main yeh samajhta tha ke pair neeche ja sakta hai, shayad 139.930 tak. Kyun ke seller ne yahan volume gain kiya tha, lekin phir ek aisa trend bana ke har baar pair naye maximum par ja raha tha. Phir mujhe laga ke yeh 147.098 ke resistance tak ja sakta hai.

Phir jaisa ke hum dekhte hain, volume mein kami aani shuru hui aur support level 142.078 ke kareeb seller ne wapas volume lena shuru kiya. Yani abhi tak support break nahi hui, magar seller ka volume aa raha hai. Lagta hai ke pair un stops tak chala gaya hai jo maine pehle mention kiye thay, jo ke 140.534 ke neeche wale range mein thay. Zyada chances hain ke yeh wahan tak jaaye aur phir growth ko resume kare.

Main USD/JPY pair ko 15-minute chart par dekh raha hoon. Yahan resistance 144.075 break hua hai. Pair ne apni growth ko 145.491 tak barhaya aur ek aur resistance 146.150 tak bhi pohanch gaya, yani mere sab growth targets ko pair ne higher timeframes par achieve kiya. Hourly chart par maine in marks tak growth ka andaza lagaya tha, magar yeh volume decline hoga yeh nahi socha tha. Pair 142.913 ke support tak gir gaya. Yahan seller ne volume lena shuru kiya, aur phir maine andaza lagaya ke shayad pair un targets tak ja sakta hai jo maine pehle bataye thay. Yani wapas us range tak jahan pair pehle trade ho raha tha, aur ab mujhe lagta hai ke pair 141.123 ke support tak gir sakta hai.

AUD/USD currency pair ke price behavior ke tajziye ke hawalay se hai. AUD/USD filhal ek downward trend mein hai. Technical analysis ke mutabiq, 4-hour chart par price cloud ke neeche trade kar rahi hai, Kijun-sen aur Tenkan-sen signal lines ke neeche, aur Chikou-span line bhi price chart ke neeche hai. Is waqt ek "dead cross" active hai. Bollinger Bands downward slope par hain, MACD oscillator ke volumes kam ho rahe hain, Relative Strength Index (RSI) 49 se neeche hai, aur trend filter oscillator ne laal rang le liya hai, jo bears ke dominant hone ka saboot deta hai. Iss waqt selling ko tarjeeh di jani chahiye. Agar yeh girawat jari rehti hai, to agla target level 0.6621 hoga. Agar bears is threshold ko tod dete hain, to quotes mazeed gir kar 0.6560 tak ja sakti hain. Main yeh tawaqo karta hoon ke yeh level bhi breakdown hoga, aur downward trend 0.6605 tak jari rahega, jo ke channel ke neeche wali boundary 0.6557 tak bhi pohanch sakta hai. Medium term mein mera target 0.6458 aur 0.6349 ke levels par hai.
Meri analysis jo maine subah share ki thi, us ke mutabiq AUD/USD market bilkul bears ki madad kar rahi hai aur abhi 0.6646 level par hai. Agar yeh rejection hoti hai, to bulls ko dobara market mein entry lene ka moka milega. Iss dauran, market buyers ke haq mein ja rahi hai, jo is baat ka wazeh ishara hai ke momentum ab upward movement ki taraf shift ho raha hai. Buyers ko taqat mil rahi hai aur wo prices ko upar dhakel rahe hain, jo ke ek bullish scenario ka saboot hai. Doosri taraf, sellers apna asar kho rahe hain aur unhein market par dabao dalna mushkil ho raha hai. Aise mein, sellers ke liye sell entry lena munasib nahi hoga, kyun ke yeh prevailing trend ke khilaf hoga. Is waqt sell position lena nuqsan ka sabab ban sakta hai, kyun ke market ka momentum strong bullish trend ko support kar raha hai aur downward movement ka faida uthana mushkil hai. Imandari se, yeh lagta hai ke AUD/USD market agle chand ghanton mein bullish trend shuru kar dega. Yeh observation technical analysis ke zariye bhi support hoti hai jo daily aur hourly charts par available hai. Dono timeframes aaj ke liye bullish scenario ko dikhate hain, jo is baat ko reinforce karta hai ke market upward move kar raha hai. Daily chart, jo market ke movements ka broader perspective deta hai, ek strong upward trend dikhata hai, jahan price levels resistance points ko break kar rahi hain

AUD/USD Ka Halat-e-Haal:

Yeh pair upward pressure ka samna kar raha hai jab investors Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ki hawkish monetary policy stance par nazar rakh rahe hain. Doosre quarter mein mazboot wage growth ke bawajood, RBA ki Governor Michele Bullock ne agle chhe maheenon mein rate cuts ki sambhavana ko rad kar diya. Bullock ne zordiya ke Australian central bank inflation risks ke liye hamesha alert hai aur zarurat par rates ko aur barhane ke liye tayaar hai. Is waqt, AUD/USD pair 0.6939 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai, jo Australian Dollar par market ki confidence ko darshata hai.

Australia ke Treasurer Jim Chalmers ne RBA ke is tajaweez ko challenge kiya hai ke mulk ki economy bohot mazboot hai. RBA ka kehna hai ke bade government budgets lambay waqt tak inflation ko barhane mein madadgar hain, lekin Chalmers is nazariye ko nakar dete hain, yeh kehkar ke economy zyada balanced hai jaisa ke central bank kehta hai. Yeh disagreement investors ke liye Australia ki economy aur Australian Dollar ki value ki future trajectory ko samajhna mushkil bana raha hai.

AUD/USD ke Fundamentals:

US Dollar abhi challenges ka samna kar raha hai jab Wednesday ko Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release hua, jisne July ki annual US inflation rate mein ek moderate izafa dikhaya. Isne investors ke darmiyan Federal Reserve (Fed) ke agle steps par speculation barha di hai. Jab ke traders ko September mein 25 basis points ka modest rate cut hone ki umeed hai, CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq 60% probability hai, magar 36% chance hai ke zyada aggressive 50 basis points ka reduction bhi ho sakta hai. Aane wale US Initial Jobless Claims aur Retail Sales data bhi market sentiment par asar daal sakte hain.

Speculation ko barhawa dete hue, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid ne yeh suggest kiya ke agar inflation subdued raha to monetary policy ko reduce karna "appropriate" ho sakta hai. Schmid ne zikar kiya ke current Fed policy "itni restrictive nahi hai" aur halan ke Fed apne 2% inflation target ke qareeb hai, lekin abhi tak apne objective ko poori tarah se nahi haasil kiya. Yeh nazariya US monetary policy ke future par mixed views paida kar raha hai, khaaskar jab global economy abhi uncertainties ka samna kar rahi hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Daily chart yeh darshata hai ke 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) jaldi hi 50-day EMA ke upar cross kar sakta hai. Aisa crossover aam tor par yeh darshata hai ke short-term price momentum longer-term trend se zyada strong hai, jo AUD/USD pair ke liye potential buying opportunity ka signal hai. Agar yeh bullish momentum jari raha, to pair 0.6940 ke aas paas ascending channel ki upper boundary ki taraf target kar sakta hai. Is level ke upar breakout hone par, pair ko apne chhe maheenon ke high 0.6946 tak pohanchne ka mauka mil sakta hai, jo ke early Asian session mein record hua tha.

Technical Analysis:

Yeh pair filhal ascending channel ki lower boundary ko test kar raha hai. Agar is level ke neeche break hota hai, to yeh bullish trend ki kamzori ka signal de sakta hai. Traders ko cautious rehna chahiye, kyunki neeche ki taraf shift hone par correction ka shuruat ho sakta hai.

Iske ilawa, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI thoda 50 mark ke upar hai, jo current bullish momentum ke jari rehne ko support karta hai, lekin yeh yeh bhi darshata hai ke market overbought territory ke qareeb hai.

Federal Reserve (Fed) aur Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ki monetary policy trajectories mein farq currency values par gehra asar dalta hai. Aam tor par, ye farq US dollar ko mazboot karta hai jabke Australian dollar ko kamzor. Ye trend AUD/USD exchange rate ke recent girawat mein wazeh hai. Iske ilawa, broader market conditions aur overall risk sentiment bhi currency movements ko shape karne mein ahem kirdar ada karte hain. Global economic outlook, geopolitical developments, aur commodity prices ki uthal-puthal jaise factors sab AUD/USD pair ko asar dalte hain.

Misal ke taur par, Australian dollar ki performance kuch khaas commodities ki prices se closely juri hoti hai, khaaskar iron ore se, jo Australia ke primary exports mein se ek hai. Commodity prices ka girna Australian dollar par mazeed pressure daal sakta hai, jo AUD/USD pair ke lower levels ko contribute karta hai. Filhal, AUD/USD ke liye pehla resistance level 0.6643 par set hai. Agar ye resistance level tooti hai, to agla bullish target 0.7121 tak upar ja sakta hai. Agar price 0.7121 ke upar close hoti hai, to market shayad 0.7543 tak barh sakta hai, jo ke teesra resistance level hai.

Doosri taraf, AUD/USD pair ke liye pehla support level lagbhag 0.6616 hai. Agar ye support level toota, to agla bearish target 0.6593 ho sakta hai. Agar price 0.6593 ke neeche close hoti hai, to market price 0.5843 tak neeche ja sakta hai, jo teesra support level hai. Traders ko ehtiyaat baratni chahiye aur in support aur resistance areas par nazar rakhni chahiye, kyunki ye market direction mein potential tabdilon ki nishandahi kar sakte hain.

Jumeraat ke Asian market session ke doran, aisa lag raha hai ke buyers abhi bhi control mein hain, actively bullish mauqe talash kar rahe hain aur price ko upar le ja rahe hain. Unka maqsad sellers ke resistance area 0.6638-0.6640 ko test karna hai. Is area ko successfully penetrate karna zaroori hai taake higher bullish trajectory khuli rahe, jahan agla target sellers ke supply resistance zone 0.6695-0.6700 par hai, jo ab tak seller control mein hai.

Aakhir mein, AUD/USD pair ki dynamics monetary policy ke farq, commodity prices ki uthal-puthal, aur broader market sentiment ke asar se tay hoti hain. Key support aur resistance levels ko monitor karke, traders apne aap ko behtar taur par position kar sakte hain taake wo potential market movements ka fayda utha sakein aur is currency pair ke ongoing fluctuations se labh hasil kar sakein. Jaise jaise market evolve hota hai, vigilance aur adaptability ko barqarar rakhna successful trading strategies ke liye zaroori hoga.

AUDUSD currency pair ab bhi bullish trend par aage barhne ki salahiyat rakhta hai. Agar hum H4 time frame par price action ka jaiza lein, to bullish trend structure phir se banana shuru ho gaya hai jab market ne August ke aakhri din trading session mein qadam rakha. Pichle kuch dinon se bullish movement jo chal rahi hai, wo aalaaqat se upward trend rally hai. Agar hum pichle mahine ke akhir mein sellers ki nakami ko dekhein, jo 0.6650 ke niche nahi ja sake, to is wajah se dusre buyers ko BUY trading positions lene mein zyada confidence mila hai. Is waqt candlestick ki position Simple Moving Average indicator ke upar hai, jo yeh darust karti hai ke market ab bhi buyers ke asar mein hai. Price niche girne ke bawajood yellow SMA 60 indicator ko break nahi kar paya, jo ke yeh darust karta hai ke AUDUSD currency pair ke bullish trend ki taraf wapas aane ki salahiyat hai. Market ki umeed hai ke wo upar ki taraf barhne ki koshish karega. Meri agle andazay ke mutabiq, market ab bhi aage barhne ki taraf hai. Halanki, market is waqt halki downward correction phase mein hai, lekin bullish movement ka mauqa ab bhi zyada range tak jaane ki umeed hai. Mera andaza hai ke aaj raat tak price mein izafa hoga, lekin range itni wide nahi hogi kyunki is hafte ke darmiyan trend shayad correction phase ke baad apne raahein dobara pakrayega.

Agar price 0.6800 ke upar barh jata hai to yeh is currency pair ke liye bullish safar jaari rakhne ka mazboot signal hoga. Is liye buyers ka dominion ab bhi price ko upar push karne ki taqat rakhta hai. Trading ka option ab bhi BUY transactions ki taraf hai. Natija: AUDUSD currency pair ke market halat ko agar technically dekha jaye to yeh ab bhi bullish hai, isliye is hafte ke trading session mein price ke izafe ki sambhavnayein ab bhi khuli hain. Lekin buyers ke liye behtar yeh hoga ke thoda sabr karein aur 0.6825 level tak rukne ka intezar karein pehle BUY position kholne se pehle. Target price level bullish ko 0.6875 tak pahunchne ki koshish karni chahiye, aur Stop Loss limit ko 0.6790 par rakhna chahiye

Spot Price ka Mazbooti

Spot price ne somwar ke trading session ke doran halka sa mazbooti dikhai, jo takreeban 0.6920 tak pahuncha. Halankeh pichle mahine be-rozgari ki shiddat mein izafa hua, lekin asal mein mazdoor bazar ki majbooti ne is currency ko saath diya. Is ke ilawa, Reserve Bank of Australia ki hawkish monetary policy ne Australian Dollar ko mustahkam banane mein madad di hai, jo iski resilience ka sabab bana.

Economic Indicators ka Asar Aussie par

Australia ka Westpac Consumer Confidence August mein 2.8% ki behtari dekhta hai, jo July ke 1.1% girawat se acha hai. Saath hi, Wage Price Index doosre ruba mein 0.8% ki thokri par ruk gaya, jab keh ye bazar ki umeed se kuch kam tha, jo 0.9% tha. Ye maqadarat ka jorh dikhata hai keh mulk ki ma'ashi halat ab bhi mazboot hai, halankeh mazdoor bazar aur wages ke hawale se kuch bechainiyan hain.

RBA ka Forecast Update

Naye ma'ashi halat ke madde nazar, Westpac ne apne RBA ke liye forecast mein tabdeeli ki hai. Unka khayal hai keh pehla interest rate cut February 2025 mein hoga, jab keh pehle ye November 2024 ka andaza lagaya gaya tha. Is ke ilawa, unhoon ne apne terminal rate ka forecast 3.35% tak barha diya hai, jo pehle 3.10% tha. RBA ka zyada ehtiyaat bhara rukh iski zarurat ko darust kar raha hai keh wo mustahkam ma'ashi taraqqi ke saboot ki talash mein hain, jo ke market mein agle monetary policy ke hawale se speculations ko barha raha hai.

US Inflation Data ka Intezar

Is beech, global investors ki nazrein agle US inflation data par hain, jo ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke potential interest rate cuts ke hawale se market speculation par asar dal sakta hai. Filhal, CME FedWatch tool ka kehna hai keh 54.5% imkaniyat hai keh Fed ke September meeting mein 50 basis point (bp) ka rate cut hoga. Ye chalta huwa speculation AUD/USD pair ke liye mixed signals ka sabab ban raha hai, aur traders agle US monetary policy ke hawale se mazeed wazahat ka intezar kar rahe hain.

AUD/USD Pair ke Key Technical Levels

Pair ko foran support 0.6870 par milega jo ascending channel ki lower boundary ke nazdeek hai. Agar ye support level toot jata hai, to pair nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 0.6929 par test kar sakta hai, is ke baad throwback level 0.6900 par hoga. In levels ke neeche mustahkam tor par girne se pair ke liye bearish outlook ka ishara mil sakta hai, jo ke ise agle key level 0.6950 ki taraf le ja sakta hai.

Upar ki taraf, pair 0.6950 ke nazdeek ascending channel ki upper boundary tak pahuncha sakta hai. Agar ye level toot jata hai, to pair apne chhe mahine ke high 0.6947 ki taraf barh sakta hai, jo bullish trend ke jari rehne ka ishara dega. Is ke ilawa, 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI bhi 50 ke thoda upar hai, jo ke kareeb ke doran bullish momentum ki mazbooti ko mazeed tasdiq karta hai.

Humari guftagu AUD/USD currency pair ke price behaviour assessment par markaz hai. Yeh pair hourly chart par thoda bearish nazar aa raha hai, lekin yeh movement un diligent sellers ki umeedon se door hai. Hum extreme low tak nahi pahunche, isliye ek significant decline ka prediction karna abhi jaldi hai. Jumme ke trading aksar ek key indicator hota hai, jo aane wale predictions ka buniyad tayar karta hai. Kyunki price minimum ke neeche nahi gayi, hum sirf limited drop ke baare mein baat kar sakte hain, jo ke ek full correction nahi, balki ek zigzag pattern hai, jo is situation mein acha fit hota hai. Market jald hi flat phase mein shift ho sakti hai. Main 0.6679 ke aas-paas long positions ke liye potential dekhta hoon. Halankeh koi significant support levels nazar nahi aate, yahan kuch hafton pehle ek noticeable rebound dekha gaya tha. Is rebound ki taqat modest ho sakti hai, jo shayad 0.6729 tak peak kare, uske baad zigzag ka khatma ho sakta hai. Is waqt buying positions se exit karna behtar hoga.
Aage dekhte hue, 0.68000 level ke aas-paas ek prominent resistance area nazar aa raha hai, jo liquidity zone aur kuch FVG areas se mark kiya gaya hai jo pehle test nahi hue. Yeh region bulls ke liye ek significant hurdle ban sakta hai, jab price is taraf aati hai to potential profit-taking aur sell-side interest dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Lekin, recent sessions mein dekha gaya upward momentum yeh darshata hai ke buyers ke paas is resistance ko challenge karne ki taqat ho sakti hai. Agar price is resistance ko break kar leti hai, to yeh aage ke gains ka rasta khol sakta hai, shayad 0.68500 ke upar higher liquidity levels ko target karte hue.

Neeche ki taraf, 0.67000 ke aas-paas ek key support zone established hai, jahan kai liquidity sweeps hue hain. In liquidity sweeps ki maujoodgi yeh darshati hai ke buyers is level ko defend kar rahe hain, jo potential pullbacks ke khilaf cushion provide karta hai. Agar price is zone ki taraf retrace hoti hai, to yeh dobara buying interest ka samna kar sakti hai, jo isse ek significant support level banata hai.

Summarize karte hue, AUD/USD clear bullish momentum dikhata hai jab key liquidity gaps fill hoti hain aur support zones se reverse hota hai. 0.68000 level agla critical resistance hai, jiska break hone par aage ke upside ki sambhavna hai. Iske baraks, agar price 0.67000 ya isse neeche pullback hoti hai, to yeh buying interest ka samna karegi, agar market conditions favorable rahe. Pair ka overall structure yeh darshata hai ke jab tak key support levels hold hote hain, bullish trend near term

Aussie Dollar Technical Analysis

Aussie dollar ne Monday ke shuruati trading mein ek shandar rally ki aur iska gradual rise jari raha. Yeh izafa is liye hai kyunki US dollar ab bhi kamzor hai, jo ke puri tarah se ajeeb nahi hai. Short-term downside par, mazboot support 0.6850 level ke aas paas milne ki umeed hai. Lambe arse mein, Australian dollar shayad 0.71 level tak barh sakta hai, jo ek aham peechle swing high hai. Lekin, Aussie ke liye sustained momentum is upward move ko haqiqat mein tabdeel karne ke liye zaroori hoga.

Yeh bhi dhyan dene ki baat hai ke US dollar filhal oversold halat mein hai, jo Aussie dollar ke barhne par kuch volatility la sakta hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke agar overall movement positive nazar aaye, to bhi is mein choppy aur noisy price action dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Iske bawajood, general outlook bullish hai aur umeed hai ke kharidaar aakhir kar market par control hasil kar lenge. Agar AUD 0.680 level se neeche girta hai, to market shayad 50-day EMA ko test kare, jo ke ek widely watched technical indicator hai aur support ke taur par kaam kar sakta hai.

Market is waqt thoda overextended nazar aata hai, isliye kuch ehtiyaat zaroori hai. Lekin, agar koi pullback hota hai to yeh traders ke liye ek mauka faraham kar sakta hai, khaaskar unke liye jo recent breakout ka faida uthana chahte hain. Iske ilawa, Federal Reserve ki taraf se continued monetary easing, khaaskar agle interest rate cuts ki sambhavnayein, US dollar par bhari pad sakti hain aur short-term mein Australian dollar ko mazeed support faraham kar sakti hain. Overall, jab ke kuch volatility ho sakti hai, Aussie ke liye outlook positive hi hai.

Aane wale trading week ke liye, AUD/USD currency pair ek dilchasp scenario pesh kar raha hai. Filhal, 0.6780 ka support level long positions open karne ke liye ek acha entry point lag raha hai. Lekin humein sabr karna hoga aur is level tak price ke wapas aanay ka intezaar karna hoga, agar waisa hota hai. Agar price 0.6780 tak pohanchti hai aur yeh support ke tor par kaam karta hai, toh yeh ek buying ka mauqa de sakta hai un traders ke liye jo upar ki taraf price movement ka faida uthana chahte hain.
Lekin, yeh note karna zaroori hai ke 0.6800 ka level ek significant resistance ka kaam kar raha hai. Agar price is resistance ko test karta hai lekin is se upar break nahi karta, toh price ka reversal bhi ho sakta hai. Is surat mein, traders ko long positions mein rehne se ehtiyaat karni chahiye kyun ke market bearish (neeche jaane ka rujhan) ho sakta hai.

Doosri taraf, agar Australian dollar ka girna jaari rehta hai, toh traders ko 0.6750 ka level dekhna hoga. Agar price is level ke neeche consolidate karta hai, toh yeh ek clear signal hoga ke short positions ko consider karna chahiye. Yeh is baat ka indication hoga ke bearish trend zyada strong ho raha hai, aur aagay aur neeche ki taraf movement ka chance hai. Is point par selling ek achi trading opportunity ho sakti hai, kyun ke AUD/USD pair mazeed neeche ki taraf ja sakta hai.

In halat mein, traders ko flexible rehna hoga aur apni strategy ko adjust karna hoga, jo ke price ke in key levels par behavior par mabni ho. 0.6780 ka support level long entry ke liye ek achi opportunity provide karta hai, lekin sirf agar price wahan support bana kar rahe. Isi tarah, agar 0.6800 ka resistance break nahi hota aur price wahan se wapas neeche aata hai, toh yeh reversal ka signal ho sakta hai, aur traders ko jaldi action lena chahiye agar price weakness dikhaata hai.

Doosri taraf, agar price 0.6750 ke neeche consolidate karta hai, toh yeh ek bearish trend ko confirm karega aur selling ka mauqa dega. Is surat mein, traders ko price action aur volume indicators par focus karna hoga taake move confirm ho aur uske baad short positions enter ki ja sakein.

Akhir mein, aane wala trading week AUD/USD ke liye is baat par depend karega ke price 0.6780 aur 0.6800 ke levels par kaise behave karta hai. Agar price wapas 0.6780 tak aata hai toh yeh ek achi long entry provide kar sakta hai, jab ke 0.6800 break na hone ki surat mein ya price 0.6750 se neeche girne par selling ka rujhan zyada ho sakta hai. Traders ko apni strategies ko dekhte rehna hoga aur unhein accordingly adjust karna hoga.

AUD/USD currency pair filhal ek aham support level ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jahan pe initial support 0.6616 ke aas paas hai. Yeh level traders ke liye bohot aham hai, kyun ke yeh current downtrend ke liye ek rukawat ka kaam kar sakta hai. Agar price is level pe stable rahti hai, toh buyers ke liye ek rebound ka mauqa mil sakta hai. Lekin agar yeh support level break ho jata hai, toh yeh aur ziada bearish momentum ka signal dega, jo ke price ko neeche le ja sakta hai.
Agar AUD/USD pair 0.6616 ke support ko break karta hai, toh agla bearish target 0.6593 ke aas paas ho sakta hai. Yeh level un traders ke liye agla focus point ban jata hai jo downtrend ka faida uthana chahte hain. 0.6593 ek temporary support ka kaam kar sakta hai, lekin agar selling pressure ziada strong hota hai, toh yeh level bhi break ho sakta hai, aur market apni girawat ko jaari rakh sakti hai.

Agar price 0.6593 se neeche close hoti hai, toh yeh ek mazid bearish trend ke barhne ka taqatwar indicator hoga. Is level ke neeche close hona, pair ko mazeed neeche ke levels ki taraf le ja sakta hai, aur agla significant target 0.5843 ke aas paas ho sakta hai. Yeh dramatic girawat ab tak ke current levels se kaafi neeche hogi, aur is girawat ki wajah kai market factors ho sakte hain, jaise ke mazid taqatwar U.S. dollar, Australia ki kamzor economic data, ya global markets mein risk-off sentiment ka barhna.

Agar price 0.5843 tak girti hai, toh yeh Australian dollar ke liye market outlook mein ek bara tabadla hoga. Aisi girawat ki wajah commodities ke prices mein kamzori, Australia ki economic growth mein susti, ya phir global risk appetite mein kami ho sakti hai, jo aam tor pe U.S. dollar ke liye faidemand hoti hai kyun ke yeh ek safe-haven currency hai.

Traders ke liye zaroori hai ke wo price action ko in key levels par bohot ghair nazar se dekhain. 0.6616 ka support buyers ke liye pehla defense line hai, aur agar yeh stable rahta hai, toh yeh short-term rebound ka ek acha mauqa ho sakta hai. Lekin agar yeh level break hota hai, aur phir price 0.6593 ke neeche close hoti hai, toh yeh confirm karega ke bearish continuation ho raha hai. Is surat mein 0.5843 level ko sellers ke liye ek lambi muddat ka target banaya ja sakta hai.
Khulasah yeh hai ke AUD/USD pair ek critical point par hai, jahan 0.6616 initial support ka kaam kar raha hai. Agar yeh level break hota hai, toh aur neeche ki taraf girawat ho sakti hai, jahan 0.6593 agla target hoga. Agar bearish momentum barqaraar rehta hai, toh price 0.5843 tak bhi gir sakti hai. Traders ko in key levels par price ke reaction ko dekhte hue apni strategies ko adjust karna hoga.

AUD/USD ka 4-hour chart abhi gradual recovery dikhata hai jo mid-July se mid-August ke strong bearish trend ke baad shuru hui hai. August mein 0.64000 ke qareebi level tak pohanchne ke baad, pair ne mazboot recovery ki aur kai key resistance levels ko tod diya. Aakhri price action dikhata hai ke AUD/USD 0.68124 par trade kar raha hai, jo ek key resistance zone ke qareeb hai, 0.68500 ke neeche jo pehle June ke aakhir mein test hua tha. Chart par kai Fair Value Gaps (FVG) bane hue hain jo market ke moments of inefficiency ko dikhate hain jahan buyers ne taqat ke sath entry ki thi. Significant Demand Liquidity (DLiq) zones bhi dekhai dete hain, khaaskar 0.65000 ke aas-paas jo downtrend ke dauran crucial support area tha. Yeh strong bullish momentum ne kaafi unfilled FVGs ko fill kar diya hai, jo shayad iss waqt ke buyers ki taqat ka exhaust hona dikhata hai jab price 0.68500 resistance ke qareeb hai.
Traders ke liye zaroori hoga dekhna ke price is resistance level par kaisa behave karta hai. Agar AUD/USD 0.68500 ko break karta hai, toh yeh June ke highs ko retest kar sakta hai, aur 0.69000 ya us se ooper tak jaa sakta hai. Lekin agar price ko yahan reject kiya gaya, toh price wapas 0.67000 ke support areas tak ja sakti hai, jahan multiple liquidity zones buyers ko attract kar sakte hain. Agar retracement aur gehra hota hai, toh AUD/USD 0.66000 ke qareeb support ko test kar sakta hai, jahan FVG aur liquidity pools abhi bhi moujood hain. Summary mein, AUD/USD ka chart strong bullish momentum dikhata hai, lekin key resistance levels aur zyada upside ko limit kar sakte hain. Focus yeh hona chahiye ke kya price 0.68500 level ko tod pata hai ya nahi, agar nahi, toh retracement ka chance zyada hai jo 0.67000 ya us se neeche tak le jaa sakta hai. Traders ko FVGs aur liquidity zones par bhi nazar rakhni chahiye kyun ke yeh potential reversal points ho sakte hain. Agar technical oscillators ki baat ki jaye, toh daily chart par mixed signals nazar aa rahe hain. Stochastic oscillator ne %K aur %D lines mein overbought zone ke andar bearish crossover banaya hai, lekin RSI abhi bhi apna bullish momentum 50 ke area ke ooper maintain kar raha hai. Agar upward pressure zyada hota hai, toh yeh 0.6870-0.6900 resistance zone ko test karne ka raasta bana sakta hai, jo December 2023 aur June 2023 ke highs ko represent karta hai.

Fed ke kal raat ke taqreer se yeh baat wazeh hui hai ke unka abhi ka focus ek sehatmand labor market par hai, jab ke agla interest rate cut ziada aggressive nahi hoga. Yeh report hamein yeh ishara deti hai ke hum is haftay aane wali US labor market news par barhpur tawajjo dein, jismein sab se kareebi aaj raat ka JOLTS data hai, phir ADP data, jobless claims, aur sab se ahem NFP hoga. Itni sari ahem data market mein zyada volatility la sakti hai, is liye humein sahi strategy ka istemal karna hoga, kyun ke market bohot jaldi resistance tak pohanch sakti hai aur phir support ki taraf gir sakti hai. Is ko anticipate karte hue, large timeframe ka use trading ke liye madadgar sabit hoga taake high volatility se bacha ja sake. AUDUSD ke movement mein kal raat, price quote ne ek naya high 0.6945 ke level par record kiya, jo ke pehle ke level se taqreeban 5 pips zyada tha. Magar, uske baad seller's reaction ne ek kaafi significant bearish engulfing candle bana di, jo ke yeh dikhata hai ke kal ka upward movement ek fake out tha. Aise price action ke sath yeh lagta hai ke sellers ne market ko dominate kar liya hai, is liye hum zyada focus sell opportunities par kar sakte hain, khaaskar jab price upward correction kar raha ho, taake profit ka potential stop loss ke muqable mein zyada ho. Yeh andaza lagaya ja raha hai ke price yellow zone mein dakhil hoga, yani ke weekly pivot 0.6886 - 0.6853. Yahan se hum kuch profit liquidate kar sakte hain aur baaqi ko barqarar rakh sakte hain jab tak ke market ka agla reaction saamne na aaye. H1 basis par intraday monitoring karte hue, yeh dekha ja sakta hai ke candle ne lower Bollinger Bands ke area mein dakhil hona shuru kar diya hai, halaan ke abhi tak poori tarah se penetrate nahi kar saka. Magar lower high structure yeh dikhata hai ke market neeche ki taraf ja rahi hai. Khaas baat yeh hai ke yeh penetration baad mein Blue EMA50 ke dynamic support ko penetrate karegi, jo ke ek strong sell signal hoga. Aur jo decline ka target H1 par hai, wo Red EMA200 ke dynamic support zone ke barabar hai, jo ke yellow rectangle 0.6886 - 0.6853 mein hai, is liye profit projection sync mein hai. Yeh lagta hai ke jald hi release hone wala retail sales data market ko expected level tak girane ka catalyst ban sakta hai.

Australian dollar ka yeh asset broadly flat raha, jabke Federal Reserve ke November policy meeting mein dobara se interest rates ko sharply cut karne ki speclations barh rahi hain. Federal Reserve ne Wednesday ko 50 basis point ka rate cut announce kiya, jis se rates 4.75%-5.00% tak aa gayi hain. Yeh clear signal hai ke Fed ka focus labor market conditions ko mazid bigarne se rokne par hai.
Interest rate guidance ke lehaz se, Fed ke dot chart se yeh pata chalta hai ke policymakers expect kar rahe hain ke federal funds rate 2024 ke akhir tak 4.4% tak barh jayega, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke central bank kam az kam 25 basis point ka rate cut karega. Lekin traders ko umeed hai ke November aur December ke remaining do policy meetings mein 75 basis point ke interest rate cuts honge, jisme se ek rate decision 50 basis points ka cut hoga. November mein 50 basis points ka interest rate cut hone ka imkaan 43% hai,



AUD/USD pair ki kamzori ko aur barha raha hai. In central bank signals ke milaap ne Australian dollar ke liye ek challenging environment bana diya hai. Investors apni positions ko adjust kar rahe hain, jab ke Fed aur RBA ke monetary policy ke trajectories mein farq hai. Yeh farq aam tor par US dollar ko mazid mazboot aur Australian dollar ko kamzor banata hai, jo ke AUD/USD exchange rate ke neeche aane mein zahir ho raha hai. Iske ilawa, broader market conditions aur risk sentiment bhi currency movements ko shape karte hain. Global economic outlook, geopolitical developments, aur commodity prices mein utar charhao bhi AUD/USD pair ko mutasir kar sakte hain. Misal ke taur par, commodity prices, khas tor par Australia ke key exports jaise ke iron ore, Australian dollar ki performance par asar dal sakti hain. Commodity prices ke kamzor hone se AUD par aur zyada pressure a sakta hai, jo ke pair ke haali low levels mein shamil hai.
AUD/USD ka initial resistance level 0.6643 par ho sakta hai. Agar initial resistance level break kar liya gaya, toh agla bullish target 0.7121 ho sakta hai. Agar 0.7121 ke upar close hota hai, toh market price 0.7543 tak ja sakta hai

Humari guftagu AUD/USD currency pair ke price behaviour assessment par markaz hai. Yeh pair hourly chart par thoda bearish nazar aa raha hai, lekin yeh movement un diligent sellers ki umeedon se door hai. Hum extreme low tak nahi pahunche, isliye ek significant decline ka prediction karna abhi jaldi hai. Jumme ke trading aksar ek key indicator hota hai, jo aane wale predictions ka buniyad tayar karta hai. Kyunki price minimum ke neeche nahi gayi, hum sirf limited drop ke baare mein baat kar sakte hain, jo ke ek full correction nahi, balki ek zigzag pattern hai, jo is situation mein acha fit hota hai. Market jald hi flat phase mein shift ho sakti hai. Main 0.6679 ke aas-paas long positions ke liye potential dekhta hoon. Halankeh koi significant support levels nazar nahi aate, yahan kuch hafton pehle ek noticeable rebound dekha gaya tha. Is rebound ki taqat modest ho sakti hai, jo shayad 0.6729 tak peak kare, uske baad zigzag ka khatma ho sakta hai. Is waqt buying positions se exit karna behtar hoga. Aage dekhte hue, 0.68000 level ke aas-paas ek prominent resistance area nazar aa raha hai, jo liquidity zone aur kuch FVG areas se mark kiya gaya hai jo pehle test nahi hue. Yeh region bulls ke liye ek significant hurdle ban sakta hai, jab price is taraf aati hai to potential profit-taking aur sell-side interest dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Lekin, recent sessions mein dekha gaya upward momentum yeh darshata hai ke buyers ke paas is resistance ko challenge karne ki taqat ho sakti hai. Agar price is resistance ko break kar leti hai, to yeh aage ke gains ka rasta khol sakta hai, shayad 0.68500 ke upar higher liquidity levels ko target karte hue.

Neeche ki taraf, 0.67000 ke aas-paas ek key support zone established hai, jahan kai liquidity sweeps hue hain. In liquidity sweeps ki maujoodgi yeh darshati hai ke buyers is level ko defend kar rahe hain, jo potential pullbacks ke khilaf cushion provide karta hai. Agar price is zone ki taraf retrace hoti hai, to yeh dobara buying interest ka samna kar sakti hai, jo isse ek significant support level banata hai.

Summarize karte hue, AUD/USD clear bullish momentum dikhata hai jab key liquidity gaps fill hoti hain aur support zones se reverse hota hai. 0.68000 level agla critical resistance hai, jiska break hone par aage ke upside ki sambhavna hai. Iske baraks, agar price 0.67000 ya isse neeche pullback hoti hai, to yeh buying interest ka samna karegi, agar market conditions favorable rahe. Pair ka overall structure yeh darshata hai ke jab tak key support levels hold hote hain, bullish trend near term

AUD/USD H1
Is instrument - AUD/USD ka trend humein buyers ki taqat dikhata hai, lekin yeh movement sirf pichle trading din ke local perspective mein hai. Is liye, main samajhta hoon ke global context mein abhi hum wahan nahi pohanche. Aayiye H1 time frame par is instrument/currency pair ka tajziya karte hain aur transaction mein behtareen entry dhundhte hain taake is se acha paisa kamaa sakein. Ek behtareen technical analysis ke liye, pehle 4-hour time frame ka chart kholen, jo humein trend ka pata lagane mein madad karega. Hum jo indicators use karenge market situation ko assess karne ke liye wo hain HamaSystem, RSI Trend aur Magnetic_Levels_Color.

Huma aur RSI trend indicators ke mutabiq, humein significant bullish interest nazar aa raha hai - dono indicators ne blue aur green rang dikha diye hain, jo ke market mein buyers ki current strength ko indicate karte hain. Is liye, hum ek long buy transaction kholte hain. Hum position ko magnetic level indicator ke basis par exit karenge. Aaj yeh level 0.69900 hai. Aur jab price desired mark tak pohanch jaye, tab bullish range ke doosre target levels ko dekhna worth hoga jo presented chart par indicate kiye gaye hain.

Agar price north ki taraf move karti rehti hai, to hum ek trailing stop (sliding stop order, trolling) add karte hain aur further profit growth ka intezaar karte hain. Yeh bhi mumkin hai ke hum purchase ka kuch hissa fix karen aur baqi ko chhod dein. Agar price movements dheemi ho jayein ya volatility ke logical end ka waqt ho, to hum already liye hue profits ke saath contract consider karte hain. Position close kar lein aur naye market mein entry ke liye agla clear signal ka intezaar karein.