usd/jpy ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

Comprehensive analysis par mabni trading
USD/JPY
Assalam Alaikum!
Kal farokht karne wale qimat ko support satah aur 151.40 ki nichli satah se niche khinchne me nakam rahe. Iska matlab hai keh ooper ka rujhan barqarar hai aur kharidar ab bhi qimat ko 153.90 ki bulani tak pahunchane ke liye taiyar hain.
Short interest sirf us surat me badhega jab qimat 151.40 ki support satah ko tod kar us se niche fix ho jayegi. Tab tak, tezi ka rujhan ab bhi relevant hai.
Agar aaj ka US nonfarm payrolls data greenback ka support karta hai to, dollar/yen ki jodi 154 ke nishan se ooper ja kar badhne ka imkan hai.
Tawil muddat ke frames ke mutabiq, darmiyani muddat ka hadaf 155.20 ki muzahmati satah hai. Is se pahle, rujhan ke sath long positions par gaur karna danishmandi hogi.
Mai bear case scenario ke imkan ko mustarad nahin karta hun, lekin qimat ko pahle 151.40 ki nichli satah ko todna hoga aur us se niche fix hona hoga.

is baat ka ishara hai ke long-term uptrend ab kamzor ho sakta hai. Yeh trendline jo kuch mahino se upar ke momentum ko support kar rahi thi, is climb mein bohot important thi. Pair ne 153.22 mark ko briefly touch kiya aur phir achanak 14-mahine ke low 140.56 pe aa gaya, jo kay kai traders ke liye unexpected tha aur is baat ko sawal uthata hai ke kya USD ki rally JPY ke muqable mein sustainable hai ya nahi. Magar iske bawajood, USD/JPY ne rebound kiya aur qareeb 151.20 ke aas paas close hua, jo ke stabilize hone aur range-bound trading ki shara karta hai, bajaye ke yeh downward jaye. RSI aur doosre momentum indicators divergence dikhate hain, jo consolidation phase ke liye ek achi support hai. Ek wider view mein, channel ya downtrend bilkul wazeh hai. Agar 151 ka level downward break nahi karta toh humein dobara 151.45 ki taraf movement dekhne ko mil sakti hai, jo ke kal ke narrow gap ke bawajood breach nahi hui. Ahem baat yeh hai ke pair ne pichle low ko break nahi kiya, balkay uptrend continue raha. Agar yeh recent low (151.45) ko cross kar jata hai toh decline ka potential hai, lekin downside break ke baghair pair uptrend line ke upar hai. 152.39 kuch resistance hai lekin yeh ek bara level nahi hai, isliye focus abhi 151.45 mark par hai. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ka action na lena kuch logon ke liye samajh se bahar hai, kyunke yen ne achanak bohot ziada (qareeban 1,400 points, ya 10%) girawat dekhi hai. Halanki BoJ pehle yen ko mazid strong karna chahta tha, ab wo iski further depreciation allow karte nazar aa rahe hain, shayad zyda behtar arbitrage trade ke liye. Yen ke weak hone ki wajah se, traders ne isko leverage karke higher-yield currencies mein invest kiya. Ab jab Japan ki economy grow ho rahi hai, yeh BoJ ke liye ek acha waqt ho sakta hai ke wo apna stance dobara se adjust kare. Kuch log samajhte hain ke BoJ strategic tor par bara players ko waqt de raha hai ke wo adjust ho sake

USD/JPY ke 1-hour chart ka mojooda tajziya ek numayan aur mazboot uptrend ko dikhata hai, jo ke market mein zabardast bullish sentiment ka izhar hai. Yeh upward trajectory is baat ki nishandahi karti hai ke price lagataar 152.50 ke ahem support level ke upar rehti hai. Yeh level na sirf market participants ke liye ek psychological anchor hai, balki technical tor par bhi ek ahem nuqta hai jo traders ki ghor se dekh bhali mein hai. Iski ahmiyat fair value gaps aur demand liquidity zones ki mojoodgi se barh jati hai, jo is support ko mazid mazboot banate hain. Yeh elements market dynamics ke liye intihai ahem hain kyunke yeh na sirf stability faraham karte hain balki traders ko strategic entry points bhi dete hain ta ke woh apni positioning kar sakein. 152.76 ka ilaka buyer interest ki mazboot riwayat dikhata hai, jo current price momentum ko barqarar rakhne mein kirdar ada karta hai.Tazaa trading sessions mein, lekin, yeh currency pair 153.000 ke mark ke qareeb resistance ka samna kar raha hai. Yeh level khaas tor par is liye noteworthy hai kyunke yeh double liquidity label ke sath hai, jo is baat ka ishara de sakta hai ke yeh ek reversal ya pullback ka point ho sakta hai mojooda price trend mein. 153.01 ke level par sellers ki zyada activity ne price par downward pressure dala hai, jo bullish traders ke liye ek mushkil mahol bana raha hai. Is aggressive selling behavior ka matlab ek ehtiyat wala market outlook hai, kyunke sellers, price ko daba kar, mojooda upward momentum ka faida uthana chahte hain.Is upper threshold par mojood selling pressure ke bawajood, 152.10 aur 151.62 ke mazboot support levels intihai ahmiyat rakhte hain. Yeh levels price ke liye cushions ka kirdar ada karte hain, aur broader market trend ke ahem moqarrir hoti hain. Buyers ka in ahem support levels ko barqarar rakhna intehai zaroori hoga kyunke traders market dynamics ka ghor se jaiza lete hain. Agar buyers in levels ka difa karne mein kamyab hote hain, toh yeh mumkin hai ke upward momentum jari rahega, jo ke price ko mazid upar le ja sakta hai. Buyers aur sellers ke darmiyan yeh jari khinch-taan in ahem levels par aakhir kaar USD/JPY pair ki mustaqbil ki price movements ka faisla karegi, jo traders ke liye yeh zaroori banati hai ke woh choksi barqarar rakhein aur market ke badalte huye halat ke mutabiq apna tayyar rakhain.

نومبر 1 2024 کو امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین کی پیشن گوئی

امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین جوڑی نے پیر کو بنائے گئے خلا کو ختم کیا اور اب 153.60 مزاحمت کے اوپر اپنی اوپر کی حرکت کو دوبارہ شروع کرنے کے لیے تیار ہے، ممکنہ طور پر ہدف 156.79 (14 مئی کی اونچائی) پر ہے۔ تاہم، ترقی کے لیے جوڑے کی تیاری کمزور رہتی ہے، کیونکہ تکنیکی اختلاف پیدا کرنے کے لیے صرف اوپر کی طرف جانے کے ارادے کو ابھی تک تیاری نہیں کہا جا سکتا۔ اس کے لیے، مارلن آسیلیٹر کو اوپر کی طرف مڑنے کی ضرورت ہے، اور قیمت کو 153.60 مزاحمت تک پہنچنے کی ضرورت ہے۔ دیگر کرنسیوں کی طرح، ین بھی امریکی انتخابات کے نتائج کا انتظار کر رہا ہے، اور 150.83-153.60 کی حد واقف اور آرام دہ علاقہ بن گیا ہے۔



امریکی انتخابات کے علاوہ، ین جاپان کی حکومت کی تشکیل اور بینک آف جاپان کی پالیسی سے متاثر ہوتا ہے۔ جیسا کہ مرکزی بینک کے سربراہ کازو یوڈا نے کل کہا، مرکزی بینک سیاسی اور اقتصادی واقعات پر بھی گہری نظر رکھتا ہے۔

آج، اکتوبر کے لیے امریکی لیبر اور مینوفیکچرنگ سرگرمی کا ڈیٹا پرامید پیشین گوئیوں کے ساتھ جاری کیا جائے گا۔ اگر یہ توقعات پوری ہو جاتی ہیں اور سٹاک مارکیٹ بحال ہو جاتی ہے، تو امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین جوڑا اپنے اوپر کی رفتار کو دوبارہ شروع کر سکتا ہے۔

چار -گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، قیمت دونوں انڈیکیٹر لائنوں کے نیچے مضبوط ہو گئی ہے، لیکن ان کے اوپر ایک مضبوطی (152.52) اس عمل کے غلط ہونے کی نشاندہی کرے گی اور اوپر کے رجحان کی ترقی کے لیے ایک آزاد سگنل کے طور پر کام کرے گی۔ مارلن 152.52 سے اوپر قیمت کے استحکام کے دوران زیرو لائن تک جا سکتا ہے۔



تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

Aaj USD/CHF pair ek mixed outlook ko zahir karta hai jo ke U.S. ki strong economic data aur Swiss National Bank (SNB) ke recent policy shift se mutasir hai. Yeh pair do aham asraat ke neeche hai: U.S. dollar ki quwat jo ke buland U.S. interest rates ke sabab se hai, aur SNB ka relaxed stance jo franc ki mang ko kam karta hai aur dollar ke liye favorable environment paida karta hai. SNB ne ab apne intervention efforts ko ease kiya hai aur ab actively franc nahi khareed raha kyunke inflation pressures ab moderate ho chuke hain aur inflation ka rate lagbhag 1.2% par hai. Yeh approach Swiss exporters ko support de sakta hai kyunke Eurozone se kamzor demand ke madde nazar, franc ab comparatively sasta hai. Magar SNB ne consistently inflation control ka wada kiya hai, aur agar inflation mein izafa hota hai tou franc ko strong karne ke liye SNB dubara se interventions kar sakta hai taake price stability qaim rakhe.

Doosri taraf, U.S. mein dollar mazboot hai jo ke Federal Reserve ke interest rate policies aur U.S. economy ki resilience ke sabab se hai. Fed ke high interest rates ko barqarar rakhne ke azm ke sabab se dollar ko advantage milta hai, khaaskar kam yield wale currencies jaise ke franc ke muqable mein. Yeh monetary policy ka farq SNB aur Fed ke darmiyan USD/CHF pair ke liye supportive hai, aur agar U.S. ke economic conditions mazid mazboot rehte hain tou yeh pair mazeed upside potential rakhta hai. Key resistance level 0.88 par hai jo agar break hota hai tou mazeed gains ki nishandahi karega. Agar USD/CHF 0.88 ke ooper nahi rehta tou 0.87 aur 0.8650 ke support levels ki taraf pullback mumkin hai. 50-day moving average aur RSI indicators suggest karte hain ke yeh pair overbought territory mein daakhil ho raha hai jo ke ek correction ko zahir karta hai jab tak koi significant upward break na aaye. Key risks mein achanak Swiss inflation mein izafa, U.S. economic data mein shifts, aur global market sentiment mein badlaav shamil hain jo franc ki safe-haven appeal ko barha sakte hain. In tamam factors par nazar rakhna USD/CHF ke potential direction ko samajhne ke liye zaroori hai.

USD/JPY H4 chart par hamen kuch kaafi important technical patterns nazar aa rahe hain jo potential trade setups ko highlight karte hain. Yeh chart hamen overall market structure aur price action ke bare mein valuable insights de raha hai. Sab se pehle hum notice karte hain ke price ne pehle blue zone ko touch kiya, jo ke ek strong resistance level hai. Is level par pehle bhi kaafi bar rejection ho chuka hai, aur ye resistance level is dafaa bhi price ko neeche push kar sakta hai. Blue zone ka area 152.31 ke aas-paas hai jo short-term resistance act kar raha hai. Uss ke baad, hum ne dekha ke price ne upper trendline ko test kiya jo yellow line se dikhayi gayi hai, aur wahan se rejection aaya. Ye yellow trendline downward slope mein hai, jo indicate karta hai ke upper side se selling pressure barh raha hai. Is waqt price lower blue zone ke pass consolidate kar raha hai aur yeh ek crucial area hai. Agar price is zone ke neeche break karta hai, to selling momentum aur barh sakta hai, jise shorting ka potential setup ban sakta hai. Yahan pe hume confirmation ka intezaar karna chahiye, kyun ke agar yeh break hota hai to price 149.978 tak neeche gir sakti hai, jo ke next support level hai. Neeche stochastics oscillator bhi hume bearish divergence show kar raha hai, jo selling pressure ki aur confirmation de raha hai. Lekin, agar price upper trendline ke upar break kar deta hai, to yeh bullish scenario bhi ban sakta hai. Yeh double-sided setup hai, aur traders ke liye zaroori hai ke wo trendline aur resistance level par apne stops aur risk ko manage karen. Is chart ke mutabiq, best approach yeh hai ke pehle yellow trendline aur blue resistance zone ke reaction ko dekha jaye. Agr price blue zone se neeche sustain karta hai to short trade ki opportunity mil sakti hai, lekin upper trendline break hone par bulls ke liye ek chance ban sakta hai. Risk management aur position sizing ka khayal rakhna iss scenario mein bohot zaroori hai, kyun ke yeh volatile setup hai. Hamesha yaad rakhein ke forex trading mein patience aur disciplined approach bohot important hote hain."

mahino se upar ke momentum ko support kar rahi thi, is climb mein bohot important thi. Pair ne 153.22 mark ko briefly touch kiya aur phir achanak 14-mahine ke low 140.56 pe aa gaya, jo kay kai traders ke liye unexpected tha aur is baat ko sawal uthata hai ke kya USD ki rally JPY ke muqable mein sustainable hai ya nahi. Magar iske bawajood, USD/JPY ne rebound kiya aur qareeb 151.20 ke aas paas close hua, jo ke stabilize hone aur range-bound trading ki shara karta hai, bajaye ke yeh downward jaye. RSI aur doosre momentum indicators divergence dikhate hain, jo consolidation phase ke liye ek achi support hai. Ek wider view mein, channel ya downtrend bilkul wazeh hai. Agar 151 ka level downward break nahi karta toh humein dobara 151.45 ki taraf movement dekhne ko mil sakti hai, jo ke kal ke narrow gap ke bawajood breach nahi hui. Ahem baat yeh hai ke pair ne pichle low ko break nahi kiya, balkay uptrend continue raha. Agar yeh recent low (151.45) ko cross kar jata hai toh decline ka potential hai, lekin downside break ke baghair pair uptrend line ke upar hai. 152.39 kuch resistance hai lekin yeh ek bara level nahi hai, isliye focus abhi 151.45 mark par hai. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ka action na lena kuch logon ke liye samajh se bahar hai, kyunke yen ne achanak bohot ziada (qareeban 1,400 points, ya 10%) girawat dekhi hai. Halanki BoJ pehle yen ko mazid strong karna chahta tha, ab wo iski further depreciation allow karte nazar aa rahe hain, shayad zyda behtar arbitrage trade ke liye. Yen ke weak hone ki wajah se, traders ne isko leverage karke higher-yield currencies mein invest kiya. Ab jab Japan ki economy grow ho rahi hai, yeh BoJ ke liye ek acha waqt ho sakta hai ke wo apna stance dobara se adjust kare. Kuch log samajhte hain ke BoJ strategic tor par bara players ko waqt de raha hai ke wo adjust ho sake

USD/JPY ki technical analysis yeh dikhati hai ke pair ne hal hi mein multi-year trendline ko cross kiya hai, jo ke is baat ka ishara hai ke long-term uptrend ab kamzor ho sakta hai. Yeh trendline jo kuch mahino se upar ke momentum ko support kar rahi thi, is climb mein bohot important thi. Pair ne 153.22 mark ko briefly touch kiya aur phir achanak 14-mahine ke low 140.56 pe aa gaya, jo kay kai traders ke liye unexpected tha aur is baat ko sawal uthata hai ke kya USD ki rally JPY ke muqable mein sustainable hai ya nahi. Magar iske bawajood, USD/JPY ne rebound kiya aur qareeb 151.20 ke aas paas close hua, jo ke stabilize hone aur range-bound trading ki shara karta hai, bajaye ke yeh downward jaye. RSI aur doosre momentum indicators divergence dikhate hain, jo consolidation phase ke liye ek achi support hai. Ek wider view mein, channel ya downtrend bilkul wazeh hai. Agar 151 ka level downward break nahi karta toh humein dobara 151.45 ki taraf movement dekhne ko mil sakti hai, jo ke kal ke narrow gap ke bawajood breach nahi hui. Ahem baat yeh hai ke pair ne pichle low ko break nahi kiya, balkay uptrend continue raha. Agar yeh recent low (151.45) ko cross kar jata hai toh decline ka potential hai, lekin downside break ke baghair pair uptrend line ke upar hai. 152.39 kuch resistance hai lekin yeh ek bara level nahi hai, isliye focus abhi 151.45 mark par hai. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ka action na lena kuch logon ke liye samajh se bahar hai, kyunke yen ne achanak bohot ziada (qareeban 1,400 points, ya 10%) girawat dekhi hai. Halanki BoJ pehle yen ko mazid strong karna chahta tha, ab wo iski further depreciation allow karte nazar aa rahe hain, shayad zyda behtar arbitrage trade ke liye. Yen ke weak hone ki wajah se, traders ne isko leverage karke higher-yield currencies mein invest kiya. Ab jab Japan ki economy grow ho rahi hai, yeh BoJ ke liye ek acha waqt ho sakta hai ke wo apna stance dobara se adjust kare. Kuch log samajhte hain ke BoJ strategic tor par bara players ko waqt de raha hai ke wo adjust ho saken.
Click image for larger version

USD/JPY ka yeh 4-hour (H4) timeframe ka chart ek range-bound ya consolidation phase ko dikhata hai, jismein price kuch dinon se ek specific range mein trade ho rahi hai. Current range ka upper level 153 hai, jo ke ek strong resistance zone ke tor par kaam kar raha hai, jab ke neeche 151.5 ke qareeb ek strong support area hai. Yeh situation tab hoti hai jab buyers aur sellers ka equilibrium ban jata hai aur koi bhi side price ko ek clear trend mein le kar nahi ja pa rahi hoti.
Technical Analysis:
Pichlay kuch dino ke data ke mutabiq, hamen price ki taraf se multiple attempts dekhne ko mile hain ke woh 153 ke resistance ko breach karay, lekin har dafa price wahan se reject ho kar neeche aati hai. Yeh resistance level pe selling pressure ko represent karta hai. Iske ilawa, 151.5 ka support bhi kaafi strong nazar aa raha hai kyunke jab bhi price wahan approach karti hai toh buyers usay support karte hain aur price wapas upar aati hai.
Agar price 153 ke upar close karne mein kamiyab ho jati hai, toh agay aur bullish momentum dekhne ko mil sakta hai jo ke is pair ko aur upar le ja sakta hai. Waisa hi agar price 151.5 ke support level ko tor kar neeche close hoti hai, toh hum bearish trend ka agaz dekh sakte hain jo is pair ko 150 ya is se neeche le ja sakta hai. MACD Indicator Analysis:
Is chart mein MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator bhi shamil hai, jo ke hamen price ke trend aur momentum ka insight deta hai. Is waqt, MACD mein bearish divergence ka indication hai, jo ke selling pressure ka ishara hai. Agar MACD signal line ko neeche cross karta hai, toh yeh selling ka signal ho sakta hai aur price neeche ja sakti hai.
Filhaal ke liye, yeh range-bound movement trade karne ke liye ek opportunity hai jab tak koi clear breakout na aaye. Buyers ke liye 151.5 ka support level important hai jab ke sellers ke liye 153 ka resistance zone. Is range mein trading ek conservative approach hai. Lekin agar breakout hota hai toh woh agay ka trend decide kar sakta hai, jo ke ya toh bullish ya bearish hoga depending on breakout direction.

USD/JPY pair ko trade karne ke liye technical indicators aur market sentiment ka gehra samajh hona bohot zaroori hai. Aaj, mein 151.49 ke critical support level par focus kar raha hoon. Agar price is level ke neeche break karti hai, to yeh ek significant sell-off ko trigger kar sakta hai, jisse tezi se girawat dekhne ko milegi. Is approach ka logic yeh hai ke established support agar breach hota hai, to yeh selling pressure ko badha sakta hai jab stop-loss orders trigger hote hain aur traders downward momentum par react karte hain.Sell position enter karne se pehle MACD indicator ka ghor se dekhna bohot zaroori hai. Strong sell signal tab aata hai jab MACD zero line ke neeche gir jata hai aur downward movement shuru karta hai, jo ke bearish momentum ke barhne ki taraf ishara hota hai. Yeh market sentiment ko confirm karne ke liye bohot zaroori hai taake trading strategy ke sath alignment ho.
Jab price 151.49 ke neeche break karti hai, mera immediate target 151.07 hoga. Yeh target pehle ke price action par base karta hai jo yeh suggest karta hai ke yeh area ek minor support level ka kaam de sakta hai. Jab hum is target ke qareeb pohonchte hain, main potential reversal ke signs ko dekhunga. Agar price 151.07 tak pohonchti hai, to mein apni sell position ko exit karne ka plan kar raha hoon aur foran ek buy order open karunga.Buy trade mein, main 20-25 pips ka modest gain target karunga. Yeh approach expected rebound se faida uthata hai, jo market ki tendency hoti hai ke woh significant move ke baad retrace kare. Lekin mein hoshiyar rahunga, khaaskar daily high ke ird-gird. Agar market weak activity dikhata hai ya pichle highs ke upar hold nahi karta, to yeh selling pressure ke wapas aane ka ishara ho sakta hai, jo mere sell aur buy dono strategies ko mutasir kar sakta hai.
USD/JPY market mein is waqt solid bullish momentum hai, aur selling sahi trading choice nahi hai. USD/JPY ka primary resistance zone 153.88 par hai, jo ke secondary resistance zone 159.88 se pehle hai. Teesra resistance area $165.99 par bohot ahem kirdar ada karega. Doosri taraf, USD/JPY ka primary support zone 151.51 par hai, jo ke secondary support zone 145.99 se pehle hai. Teesra support area $141.82 par market ko downside ki taraf pump karne mein key role play karega. Humein confirmation candle ka intezar karna chahiye. Uske baad hi hum best entry le sakte hain. Isi liye mein low point se buy entry recommend karunga.

USD/jpy
USD/JPY pair par asar dalne wala ek ahem factor Federal Reserve (Fed) aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke darmiyan monetary policy ka farq hai. Fed ne haal hi mein interest rates ke liye "higher for longer" ka approach apnaya hai, jo aam tor par U.S. dollar ko support karta hai. Lekin, bazaar mein yeh speculation hai ke Fed apni policy kab pivot karega, jo dollar ki taqat ko asar daal sakta hai. Doosri taraf, BoJ ab tak apni ultra-loose monetary policy ko barqarar rakha hua hai, jisme negative interest rates hain. Lekin, Japan ke central bank par tightening policies ka pressure barh raha hai, aur agar BoJ choti moti tabdeeli kar de, jaise bond-buying kam karna ya rate hikes ka ishaara karna, to yeh yen ko tezi se majboot kar sakta hai, aur USD/JPY ko neeche la sakta hai. Japan ki inflation outlook bhi ek aur aham baat hai. Jab ke Japan mein inflation aam tor par kam raha hai, recent data yeh dikhata hai ke inflation dheere dheere barh raha hai, jo BoJ ke liye potential policy shifts par guftagu ko janam de raha hai. Agar BoJ ka koi ishaara ho ke wo apni negative rate policy khatam kar sakta hai ya inflation se nipatne ke liye measures le sakta hai, to yeh USD/JPY mein bohot bara movement la sakta hai, jab traders apne positions ko in changing dynamics ke mutabiq adjust karte hain. U.S. taraf se, economic data jaise job growth, consumer spending, aur inflation reports bhi USD/JPY pair mein volatility create kar sakte hain. Agar data ma'ashiyat ke thande hone ka ishaara kare, to Fed apni rate hikes ke liye zyada ehtiyaat kar sakta hai, jo dollar ko kamzor kar sakta hai. Doosri taraf, mazboot economic indicators dollar ki taqat ko barhane mein madadgar sabit ho sakte hain, kam az kam ek choti muddat ke liye. Is ke ilawa, global events aur risk sentiment bhi is pair par asar daal sakte hain; koi bhi geopolitical instability ya trade disruptions investors ko safe-haven currencies, jaise yen, ki taraf dekhne par majboor kar sakte hain, jo market mein rapid shifts ka sabab bante hain.

Comprehensive analysis par mabni trading USD/JPY
Assalam Alaikum!
Kal farokht karne wale qimat ko support satah aur 151.40 ki nichli satah se niche khinchne me nakam rahe. Iska matlab hai keh ooper ka rujhan barqarar hai aur kharidar ab bhi qimat ko 153.90 ki bulani tak pahunchane ke liye taiyar hain.
Short interest sirf us surat me badhega jab qimat 151.40 ki support satah ko tod kar us se niche fix ho jayegi. Tab tak, tezi ka rujhan ab bhi relevant hai.
Agar aaj ka US nonfarm payrolls data greenback ka support karta hai to, dollar/yen ki jodi 154 ke nishan se ooper ja kar badhne ka imkan hai.
Tawil muddat ke frames ke mutabiq, darmiyani muddat ka hadaf 155.20 ki muzahmati satah hai. Is se pahle, rujhan ke sath long positions par gaur karna danishmandi hogi.
Mai bear case scenario ke imkan ko mustarad nahin karta hun, lekin qimat ko pahle 151.40 ki nichli satah ko todna hoga aur us se niche fix hona

USD/JPY ka yeh 4-hour (H4) timeframe ka chart ek range-bound ya consolidation phase ko dikhata hai, jismein price kuch dinon se ek specific range mein trade ho rahi hai. Current range ka upper level 153 hai, jo ke ek strong resistance zone ke tor par kaam kar raha hai, jab ke neeche 151.5 ke qareeb ek strong support area hai. Yeh situation tab hoti hai jab buyers aur sellers ka equilibrium ban jata hai aur koi bhi side price ko ek clear trend mein le kar nahi ja pa rahi hoti.
Technical Analysis:
Pichlay kuch dino ke data ke mutabiq, hamen price ki taraf se multiple attempts dekhne ko mile hain ke woh 153 ke resistance ko breach karay, lekin har dafa price wahan se reject ho kar neeche aati hai. Yeh resistance level pe selling pressure ko represent karta hai. Iske ilawa, 151.5 ka support bhi kaafi strong nazar aa raha hai kyunke jab bhi price wahan approach karti hai toh buyers usay support karte hain aur price wapas upar aati hai.
Agar price 153 ke upar close karne mein kamiyab ho jati hai, toh agay aur bullish momentum dekhne ko mil sakta hai jo ke is pair ko aur upar le ja sakta hai. Waisa hi agar price 151.5 ke support level ko tor kar neeche close hoti hai, toh hum bearish trend ka agaz dekh sakte hain jo is pair ko 150 ya is se neeche le ja sakta hai. MACD Indicator Analysis:
Is chart mein MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator bhi shamil hai, jo ke hamen price ke trend aur momentum ka insight deta hai. Is waqt, MACD mein bearish divergence ka indication hai, jo ke selling pressure ka ishara hai. Agar MACD signal line ko neeche cross karta hai, toh yeh selling ka signal ho sakta hai aur price neeche ja sakti hai.
Filhaal ke liye, yeh range-bound movement trade karne ke liye ek opportunity hai jab tak koi clear breakout na aaye. Buyers ke liye 151.5 ka support level important hai jab ke sellers ke liye 153 ka resistance zone. Is range mein trading ek conservative approach hai. Lekin agar breakout hota hai toh woh agay ka trend decide kar sakta hai, jo ke ya toh bullish ya bearish hoga depending on breakout direction

USD/JPY Pair Analysis

USD/JPY pair, jo filhal 2.07244 par hai, ek bearish trend ka izhar kar raha hai. Halankeh girawat ki raftar kuch had tak dheemi hai, lekin aisa lagta hai keh agle dinon mein kisi bade harkat ka samna karna par sakta hai. Is pair ki agle raah ka tajziya karne ke liye buniyadi aur technical asraat ko samajhna zaroori hai. Haal Ka Bazaar Ka Jazba
USD/JPY ka exchange rate Areeka aur Japan ki mukhtalif ma'ashi policies aur performance se asar andaz hota hai. Filhal, Japanese yen ka US dollar ke muqable mein izafa ho raha hai, jo ke kuch ma'ashi policy faislon aur nazariyon ki wajah se hai. Misal ke taur par, Bank of Japan (BOJ) ne ma'ashi bharawe ko le kar ehtiyaat bhara rukh apnaya hai, jahan wo domestic inflation targets par tawajju de raha hai bina zyada rate hikes ke. Yeh ehtiyaati policy aakhri hafton mein yen ki taqat ko barhawa de rahi hai, jo USD/JPY par neeche ki taraf pressure daal rahi hai. Is ke muqable, Amreeka mein Federal Reserve ne inflation par mazboot rukh apnaya hai, lekin aakhri isharaat yeh dikhate hain keh wo rate hikes mein rukawat daal raha hai, jo dollar ki qeemat ko kamzor kar raha hai.
Technical Tajziya aur Ahem Levels
Technical indicators USD/JPY ke aas paas bearish jazbe ko aur bhi mazid barhawa de rahe hain. Exchange rate apni moving averages se neeche hai, jo ek girawat ka izhar karta hai. Momentum indicators, jese ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) aur Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), bhi bearish reading dikhate hain. Yeh technical asraat ka mel milkar yeh darshata hai keh yeh pair apni girawat ko jaari rakh sakta hai jab tak yeh kisi ahem support level tak nahi pahunchtah jo trend ko palat sakta hai. Support aur resistance levels pair ke agle harkat mein ahem kirdar ada karenge. Agar yeh current support level se neeche nikalta hai, toh yeh bechne ka pressure barh sakta hai, jo USD/JPY ko naye lows ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Is ke ulte, agar yeh pair foran resistance ko todne mein kamiyab hota hai, toh yeh short-term retracement ka ishara de sakta hai, lekin yeh bhi bearish context mein hoga. Volatility aur Bahari Asraat Ka Imkan
Aane wale waqt mein, kuch asraat USD/JPY mein volatility ko barha sakte hain. Dono mulkon ke aham ma'ashi indicators, jese ke US Non-Farm Payrolls ya Japanese CPI data ki release, agar market ke expectations se alag hoti hai, toh yeh tez harkat ka sabab ban sakti hai. Geopolitical asraat, jese ke Asia mein tensions ya kisi bhi tarah ke U.S. fiscal policy ke developments, bhi volatility ko barha sakte hain. Agar yeh waqiaat maujooda market jazbe ke sath milte hain, toh hum pair mein zyada izafa dekh sakte hain.

USD/JPY H4 timeframe chart mein hum current trend ko observe kar sakte hain, jo ke overall bullish hai. Chart ke analysis ke mutabiq, price ne recent dino mein upward momentum dikhaya hai aur is waqt 152.99 ke level par hai. Yeh level abhi aik resistance zone ban gaya hai, jahan se price pehle bhi react kar chuki hai. Agar price is resistance ko break karne mein kamiyab hoti hai, toh agla resistance level 155.80 ke qareeb hai, jo ke potential target ho sakta hai.
Chart par humein aik red moving average line bhi nazar aa rahi hai, jo ke price ke neeche support provide kar rahi hai. Yeh moving average line trend continuation ka signal hai, aur jab tak price is line ke upar rehti hai, bullish trend ka imkaan zyada hai. Moving average ke saath price ka sustain rehna trend ke strength ka indication hai, jo ke traders ke liye bullish setup create kar sakta hai.
Lekin agar hum is bullish trend ke hawale se pullback ka sochte hain, toh moving average ek strong support zone ka kam karega. Agar price yahan se niche girti hai toh yeh pullback buying ka aik acha mauka ban sakta hai, kyon ke price ne is level se pehle bhi support liya hai. Aik aur cheez jo hamein dekhni chahiye woh yeh ke price agar moving average ke neeche close hoti hai, toh yeh trend mein weakness ka sign ho sakta hai, jo ke trend reversal ke imkaan ko badha sakta hai.
Abhi tak ke price action aur moving average analysis ke mutabiq, USD/JPY ka trend bullish hai lekin resistance zone par consolidation ho sakti hai. Agar price is level ke upar breakout karti hai aur strong candle close hoti hai, toh yeh buyers ke liye confirmation hogi ke trend upar ki taraf continue karega. Lekin, agar yahan se rejection milta hai aur price moving average ke neeche girti hai, toh yeh sellers ke liye aik opportunity ban sakti hai. Is analysis ke mutabiq, conservative traders ke liye behtar hoga ke woh resistance break hone ka wait karain, jab ke aggressive traders pullback pe buying ka plan bana sakte hain.