جی بی پی/یو ایس ڈی: کرنسی کے تبادلے کی تازہ ترین معلومات

GBP/USD
Assalam Alaikum!
Kal, pound/dollar ke jode ne kafi sakht range me trade kiya. Aisa lagta hai keh asset ek aham qadam se pahle mazbut ho raha hai.
Aaj ka trading tactic kafi aasan hai, aur hamein sirf 1.3178 aur 1.3220 ki satahon se munsalik tejarati hadd se bahar nikalne ke liye qimat ka intezar karna hoga.
Mai us simt me trade kholunga jis simt me qimat jati hai.
4-ghante ka chart zahir karta hai keh basement indicators ke oversold hone ke bawajud, ek tez breakout ka imkan zyada hai. Is qisam ki qimat ka rawaiyah, ek istehkam ka marhala, aam taur par pichli movement ke tasulsul ka bayas banta hai. Agar qimat 1.3220 ki satah se ooper toot jati hai to, Bartanwi pound ke faide ko badhane aur 1.3391 (FE 2.382%) ki muzahmati satah ki taraf badhne ki ummid hai.
Tezi ki surat me, kaledi hadaf ka test karne ke bad short positions kholna mumkin hoga.



Yaumiyah chart ke mutabiq mandi ka rujhan mumkin hai. Yahan, pound/dollar ka joda chadhte hue channel trade karta rahta hai. Chunkeh kal channel ki hadd se qimat wapas khinch gayi thi, lehaza mazid kami ka imkan hai. Agar qimat channel se niche kam ho jati hai to short positions kholna mumkin hoga. 1.2963 (FE 61.8%) ki support satah ko yaumiyah chart par aham haadaf ke taur par dekha ja sakta hai.

**GBP/USD H4 Chart Analysis**

Aaj raat ke trading session mein, buyers price ko upar le jane mein naakam rahe, jis se sellers ne price ko niche push karne ka momentum hasil kiya. Chart analysis ke results ke mutabiq, GBP/USD currency pair early June se downward movement mein hai. Aaj subah price movement ne thodi si upward correction dikhayi, lekin weekly basis par sellers ki strength ab bhi candlestick ko niche push karne ki koshish kar rahi hai, aur price 1.2686 ke level tak pohanch gayi hai. Candlestick ki position dekhte hain jo ab bhi red Simple Moving Average 150 indicator ke neeche hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke market ab bhi bearish hai. Pichla upward trend phir se downward ho gaya hai. American session ke shuruat ke waqt market phir se niche move karne ki koshish kar sakti hai.

Lekin ek alternative scenario bhi hai. Agar prices Yellow Moving Average ke upar rehti hain (jo ek aur technical indicator hai jo momentum ko gauge karta hai), to bulls control dobara hasil kar sakte hain aur prices ko upar le ja sakte hain. Yeh mumkin hai ke yeh 1.2726 level ke aas paas ke current range ke upper limit ko test kare. Agar is level se upar breakout hota hai, to yeh mere liye ek strong selling signal hoga. Aaj ke forex market mein directionlessness hai. Economic catalysts ki kami aur technical stalemate yeh suggest karte hain ke aaj sideways trading ka din ho sakta hai. Lekin technical indicators mein kuch subtle hints hain jo entry points offer kar sakti hain un logon ke liye jo calculated risks lene ko tayaar hain. Red Moving Average ke neeche break hone se buying opportunity milti hai, jabke Yellow Moving Average ke upar break hone se selling opportunity milti hai. Phir bhi, market ki overall lack of momentum ko dekhte hue, caution zaroori hai.

Hum is waqt GBP/USD currency pair ke dynamic pricing behavior ko assess kar rahe hain. Aaj currency pair upward move kar raha hai, jese ke daily chart par dekha ja sakta hai. Yeh upward trend abhi tak barqarar hai. Sabse ahem sawal yeh hai ke yeh upward movement jaari rahegi ya phir doosri possibilities samne aa sakti hain? Chaliye, technical analysis ka mutaala karte hain taake outlook ka pata chal sake. Moving averages ek strong buy signal de rahe hain; technical indicators bhi ek bara purchase recommend karte hain, aur overall outlook yeh hai ke buying continue rahegi. Humein mazeed upward movement ka intezar karna chahiye, lekin ek faisla karna zaroori hai. Ab, chaliye is pair ke liye critical news ka jaiza lete hain. UK ne unemployment rate par data publish kiya hai, jo ek positive indicator hai. UK se doosri koi significant news nahi hai. Pair is resistance level ke aas paas trade kar raha hai; agar yeh level surpass kar leta hai aur iske upar hold karne me kamyab hota hai, toh buying target kal ke liye 1.29303 ka resistance level ho sakta hai.
Dusri taraf, US se aane wali news negative rahi hai, aur weekly US crude oil inventories release hone wali hain. Aaj ke liye, mera primary focus bullish trend par hoga, aur umeed hai ke price 1.2849 ke resistance level tak pohanch jayegi. Lekin sales ka possibility support level 1.2819 tak ho sakta hai, jise dekha jaye toh bullish trend jaari rehne ke imkanaat hain.

Thursday ko, pound-dollar pair ne hourly chart par range ke andar din ka aghaz kiya. Pehle yeh rise hui, phir drop karke 1.26534 ke support level tak pohanchi. Is support ke qareeb price ne rebound karte hue 1.27541 ke resistance level ki taraf move kiya, jise Friday ko falsely break kiya gaya. Ek false buy signal 1.28376 ke resistance level par emerge hua, jis ke baad ek sell signal aaya resistance ke breakdown ke wajah se, jo ke bhi untrue tha. Is level ke upar pair phir move kar gaya, aur doosra buy signal target kiya 1.28376 ke resistance ko.

GBP/USD ne Tuesday ko two-week high par rally ki, session peak 1.2873 tak barh gayi jab market sentiment ne buy button dhoond liya. US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation expected se zyada cool-off hui, jis ne Federal Reserve (Fed) se September mein rate cuts ke liye bets mein izafa kar diya, jab ke Cable traders ne UK unemployment claims ke multi-year peak ko nazar andaz kar diya.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures Wednesday ko dono taraf, Atlantic ke is paar bhi, release honay wali hain. Core UK CPI inflation ki umeed hai ke July mein YoY 3.4% tak neeche aayegi, jo pehle 3.5% thi. US side par, market

GBP/USD:

Hamari guftagu GBP/USD currency pair ke price behavior ke tajziya par markooz hai. Aaj GBP/USD pair mein khaas harkat dekhi gayi hai. Kal ka close pichle din ke level ke barabar tha, jo mujhe lagta hai ke price dheere dheere barh sakti hai. Main kal ke aakhri daily candle ke lowest point (1.3074) ka intezar karunga. Agar choti time frame par head and shoulders pattern banta hai, to main trade mein enter karunga. Main positions ko 1.3048 level se aage nahi rakhoonga, aur wahan par unhein close kar dunga. Kal ke extreme se daily movement ka aadha retracement mujhe profit-taking target ke liye 1.3153 deta hai. Lekin, iske liye pair ko M15 time frame par channel ke niche break karna padega. Is pair ka ascending channel kaafi dair se chal raha hai, aur aise channels zyada der tak nahi chalate. Sabse bura scenario ek flat exit ho sakta hai, magar mujhe ye outcome na ke barabar lagta hai.

Powell ke recent speech ke baad, 1.309 se izafa dekha gaya, halanke mujhe lagta tha ke rate adjustment Powell ke address se pehle hi ho gaya tha. Phir bhi, speech ke baad ek additional rise dekha gaya, jo mujhe lagta hai ke correction in the uptrend aane wala hai. Jabke main complete pair reversal ki prediction nahi kar raha, meri pehli target 1.299-1.3049 ki girawat hai aur shayad usse bhi neeche agar pound kamzor hota hai. Girawat ka imkaan zyada lagta hai, khaaskar jab Fed ne rates ko kam kiya hai aur Bank of England bhi rate cuts kar raha hai, aur aage bhi reductions ki ummed hai. ECB aur Bank of England Fed ke rate cuts ka intezar kar rahe the, aur ab jab yeh ho gaya hai, to wo bhi zaroori reductions kar sakte hain. Isliye, girawat aur uske baad correction sabse zyada mumkin lagte hain.

### Fundamental Analysis

Tuesday ke London session mein, Pound Sterling (GBP) ne US Dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein 1.3200 ke aas-paas apni gains barqarar rakhi hain. Pichle haftay ke bade faide ke baad, GBP/USD pair thodi rukawat par hai jabke investors naye ishare dekh rahe hain ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September interest rate kam hone ki ummeed kitni badi ho sakti hai.

CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 30-day Federal Funds Futures price data kehti hai ke 28.5% traders ko lagta hai ke September mein 50 basis point (bps) ki interest rate cut ho sakti hai, jabke baqi traders 25 bps ke kam cut ki ummeed rakhte hain. Yeh tool dikhata hai ke traders ne Fed ke policy normalization ko puri tarah se price mein include kar liya hai, jo US Dollar ko pichle ek haftay se kamzor rakha hua hai.

Investors core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data ka intezaar karenge jo Friday ko release hona hai. Pichli report mein 2.6% annual core PCE ke barhne ki ummeed hai aur monthly statistics bhi 0.2% se behtar hone ki umeed hai. Usse pehle, US economic calendar mein Conference Board ka August consumer confidence index aur S&P/Case-Shiller June home price indices Tuesday ko publish honge.

### Technical Analysis

GBP/USD ne 1.3200 par ek naya do saal ka high hit kiya, uske baad pound sterling mein decline aaya. Weekly time scale par Rising Channel chart pattern ka breakthrough hone ke baad, GBP/USD pair ne strength show kiya. Agar bullish momentum dobara se barhta hai, to yeh pair 1.3640 ke high ki taraf barh sakta hai jo February 4, 2022 ko dekha gaya tha.

20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) jo 1.2766 ke aas-paas hai, ek significant rising trend ko dikhata hai. 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) strong upward momentum ko indicate karta hai aur bullish region mein 60.00–80.00 ke beech oscillate kar raha hai. Lekin, RSI 70.00 ke aas-paas overbought levels tak pahuncha hua hai, jo corrective retreat ki possibility ko darshata hai. 1.3000 ka psychological level pound sterling ke liye critical support ban gaya hai agar price niche jaati hai.

Pound Sterling 1.3200 ke ird-gird sideways trade kar raha hai US Dollar ke muqablay mein, jab investors US core PCE inflation data ka intezar kar rahe hain jo July ke liye hai. Fed ke Mary Daly ne kaha ke agar US labor market girta hai to aggressive policy easing ke liye darwaze khule hain.

British shop price inflation August mein tezhi se slow hui hai.

Pound Sterling (GBP) Tuesday ke London session mein 1.3200 ke round-level figure ke paas apni gains ko pakray hue hai. GBP/USD pair ek tarah se last week ke sharp increase ke baad thoda ruk gaya hai, jab investors Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein interest rate cut ki size ke baare mein naye signals ki talash mein hain.

CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 30-day Federal Funds Futures pricing data dikhata hai ke September mein 50-basis-points (bps) interest-rate reduction ka probability 28.5% hai, jab ke baqi log 25 bps ke chhote cut ko prefer karte hain. Ye tool clear dikhata hai ke Fed ke policy normalization ka return traders ke dwara puri tarah priced in hai, jo US Dollar ko ek haftay se pehle se kamzor rakhe hue hai.

US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ki value ko chhay major currencies ke muqablay mein track karta hai, immediate resistance of 101.00 ke neeche subdued performance dikhata hai.

San Francisco Fed Bank ki President Mary Daly ne Monday ko September mein interest rates cut karne ki zaroorat par zordiya. Daly ne 25 bps interest rate cut ko support kiya lekin saath hi kaha ke agar labor market girta hai to bada cut bhi ho sakta hai, unhone Bloomberg ke interview mein kaha.

Investors ka confidence barh gaya hai ke Fed September se interest rates reduce karne shuru karega, jab Fed Chair Jerome Powell ne Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium mein kaha ki ab policy ko adjust karne ka waqt aa gaya hai. Jerome Powell ne easing labor market conditions ke baare mein bhi chinta jatai aur iski madad karne ka waada kiya.

Is haftay investors US core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data pe dhyan denge jo Friday ko publish hoga. Annual core PCE ka estimate 2.7% hai jo pehle 2.6% tha, aur monthly figures ka dekhne se 0.2% ka steady growth dekha jayega. Isse pehle, US economic calendar Tuesday ko S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices ke release aur The Conference Board ke Consumer Confidence gauge ka data offer karega.

Pound Sterling apne major peers ke muqablay mein strength dikhata hai, except Asia-Pacific currencies, Tuesday ko. British currency upbeat market sentiment aur UK mein improving economic outlook ka faida utha rahi hai. Economic prospects behtar hue hain jab flash S&P Global/CIPS PMI ne dikhaya ke manufacturing aur service sectors dono ne August mein expect se tez pace se growth ki.

Bank of England (BoE) ke September mein aur ek interest-rate cut ki chances ko kam karne se bhi Pound Sterling ki appeal barh gayi hai. Is scenario ka possibility kam hai kyunki BoE officials ko lagta hai ke inflation phir se barhegi jab ke price pressures pipeline mein seem to be abating.

British shop prices August mein October 2021 ke baad pehli baar decline hui hain, British Retail Consortium (BRC) ke data ke mutabiq. Non-food goods ki prices 1.5% gir gayi hain, jo summer clothes sales ke slow hone ke wajah se sabse bada girawat hai teen saalon mein. Food prices 2.0% ke slower pace se barhi hain, jo November 2021 ke baad ka sabse chhota rise hai, July mein 2.3% se down hua hai.

Pound Sterling 1.3200 ke fresh two-and-a-half-year high ko achieve karne ke baad sideways ho gaya hai. GBP/USD pair ne weekly time frame par Rising Channel chart formation se breakout deliver kiya. Agar bullish momentum wapas aati hai, to Cable ko February 4, 2022 ke high 1.3640 tak extend hone ki ummeed hai.

Upward-sloping 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) jo 1.2766 ke aas-paas hai, ek strong upside trend suggest karta hai.

14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish range 60.00-80.00 mein oscillates kar raha hai, jo strong upside momentum ko suggest karta hai. Lekin, ye 70.00 ke aas-paas overbought levels tak pahuncha hua hai, jo corrective pullback ke chances barhaata hai. Neeche, psychological level 1.3000 Pound Sterling ke bulls ke liye crucial support banega.

GBP/USD: Price Action

Hum GBP/USD currency pair ki price behaviour ka jaiza le rahe hain. GBP/USD market mein, bears asar dikhane ki koshish kar rahe hain lekin unki taqat kami hai. Dusri taraf, bulls consistently price ko 32nd figure mein push kar rahe hain, upar ki taraf le jaane ki koshish kar rahe hain aur naye highs ko touch karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Sawal ye hai ke kya bulls ab bears mein tabdeel ho gaye hain, traders ko highs par chorh kar aur shayad trend ko bearish side mein reverse karte hue. Pound bhi asar mein hai, aur girawat mumkin hai. Agar US dollar ke liye achhi khabrein aati hain, toh ye bears ko mazid majbooti de sakta hai. Lekin, aaj ka foran maqsad 1.3179 ke niche close karna hai. Aaj, main indicator ka use karke current price movement ka tajweez dena chahta hoon jo moving average analysis par mabni hai. Channel bullish hai, jo suggest karta hai ke buyers sellers par overpower kar rahe hain. Halankeh kuch bearish pullback movements hain, lekin bulls abhi bhi mazboot hain aur bears ko apni leadership chhorne ke liye tayyar nahi hain.

Line ki direction indicate karti hai ke ab sirf long positions lena advisable hai. CPI indicators dono extended buy area mein hain. Main apni open position ko tab close karne ka plan bana raha hoon jab price Fibonacci level of 61.7% tak pahunche, jo 1.32794 price mark ke barabar hai. Hourly time frame ko analyze karne ke baad, maine daily chart ka bhi tajweez liya. Kal, 1.2299 level se rebound karne ke baad, pound/dollar pair ne rise shuru kiya aur ek strong upward price channel bana diya, aur British pound ab 1.3201 par trade kar raha hai. Technical standpoint se, itne extended series of green daily candles ke baad, is din green close hone ki achi ummeed hai, aur main market ka close 1.3229 par hone ka tajweez de raha hoon. Us point par, main apne buy trades se profits record karne ka plan bana raha hoon aur sell positions open karne ka soch sakta hoon. Lekin, main tab tak koi premature decisions nahi lunga.

Pound Sterling ki qeemat US Dollar ke muqablay mein barh gayi jab Middle East mein geopolitical tensions kam hui. GBP/USD pair Tuesday ki subah Asian session mein 1.3190 ke qareeb trade kar raha tha, weekend ke dauran Israel aur Lebanon ke Hezbollah ke darmiyan huye takraaron ke baad. Waqt e hasr, Federal Reserve ne apne September ke agle meeting ke liye rate cut ka ishara diya. Chairman Jerome Powell ne policy adjustments ki baat ki, lekin unhone cut ke waqt ya iski shiddat ka wazeh nahi kiya. Market expectations ek 25-basis point ke cut ki taraf rukh kar rahi hain, jo CME FedWatch tool se zahir hota hai. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly ne Powell ki baaton ko dohraate hue, economic growth aur inflation ko control karne ke liye rate cut ki himayat ki. UK mein, consumer prices August mein do saal se zyada waqt ke baad pehli baar kam hui hain. UK Shop Prices Index 0.3% saal dar saal gir gaya, jo ke garmi ke kapron aur homeware ke kam hotay huye prices ki wajah se tha. Prime Minister Keir Starmer ne UK economy ke samne aane wali mushkilat ko maan liya aur aage ka period mushkil hone ka chitaavni diya.

GBP/USD pair July ke resistance level 1.3044 ko todne ke baad se upar ki taraf barh raha hai. Is pair ke agle targets 2023 ka resistance level 1.3142 aur 1.3159 level hain, jo December 2021 mein ek support level tha aur April 2022 mein resistance level tha. Is uptrend ko barqarar rakhne ke liye, GBP/USD pair ko recent intraday demand zone 1.3102 aur 1.3089 ke upar support banaye rakhna hoga. Agar 80% aur 100% Fibonacci extension levels ke upar break milta hai, to 1.3076 level ko ek key support point ke tor par validate kiya jayega. Lekin agar Thursday ke resistance level 1.3129 ko todne mein nakami hoti hai aur decisive move demand zone ke neeche hota hai, to broader pullback ka khatra hai. Aise pullback ke potential targets 1.3056, 1.3044 aur exposed POC point 1.3026 ho sakte hain. Nakhira, GBP/USD pair geopolitical factors aur economic indicators ke combination se mutasir hai. Middle East mein tensions ke kam hone aur US mein lower interest rates ke prospects ne pound ko support diya hai. Lekin, UK economy ko kaafi challenges ka samna hai, aur pair ki upward momentum test ho sakti hai agar yeh key resistance levels ko todne mein nakam hota hai.

Hamari discussion ka topic GBP/USD currency pair ke price movements ka analysis hai. Main aam tor par weekly time frames ko consider karta hoon. Dollar-yen currency pair ke liye base currency ka steady increase dekhne ko mil raha hai. Pichle hafte, buyers ne 161.27 USD/JPY par naye highs achieve kiye. Long position holders ke liye main achievement ye thi ke price ko 160.00 ke upar consolidate karna tha. Buyers ka long term aim is mark ko surpass karna tha, lekin ye thoda delay hua, jo market participants ko intriguing bana gaya. Agle hafte, mujhe is level ke upar further consolidation ki ummeed hai. USD/JPY pair ne is hafte apna all-time high update kiya. Lower time frames par humein clear uptrend dekhne ko mil raha hai, jo humein trim support levels dekhne aur long positions open karne ki ijazat deta hai. Lekin daily chart par ek zyada interesting picture nazar aati hai, jahan significant support level 157.69 ke aas-paas hai, jo current quotes se kafi door hai.

Agar correction shuru hoti hai, to ye gehri ho sakti hai. Is ke bawajood, bears ko zyada optimistic nahi hona chahiye, kyunki daily chart is saal ek strong uptrend dikhata hai. Further analysis zyada complex scenario suggest karti hai, jo ye batata hai ke stores par focus karna safer aur more enjoyable hai. Chart filhal M15 time frame ke signals dikhata hai. Lekin, main yeh ensure karna chahta hoon ke M15 aur hourly time frames ke signals chart par hain. Inka signal strength aur growth potential identical hai. Filhal growth valid hai. Ek fresh buy signal, jo trend aur impulse se supported hai, growth targets ko 161.331 tak indicate karta hai. Main expect nahi karta ke lows ka update breakdown ka result banta hai. Low point hit karne ke baad, quotes ne corrective pullback nahi dikhaya; balki, ye foran upar surge hui.

اگست 27 2024 کو برطانوی پاؤنڈ/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

برطانوی پاؤنڈ 1.3220 کی سطح پر رک گیا، جو جمعہ کو پہنچ گیا۔ یہ اوپر کی طرف رجحان کے خاتمے کا اشارہ دے سکتا ہے، لیکن تصدیق ہدف کی حد، 1.3095-1.3120 کی نچلی حد سے نیچے جانے سے ہوگی۔ اگر یہ عروج کا خاتمہ نہیں ہے تو، مزید نقل و حرکت کے لیے جمعہ کی بلندی (1.3229) پر قابو پانے کی ضرورت ہوگی، ترجیحاً 1.3220 کی سطح سے اوپر استحکام کے ساتھ۔



اگلا ہدف 1.3300 کی مزاحمتی سطح ہو گی۔ تاہم، قیمت کسی بھی سمت میں بڑھنے کا کوئی ارادہ نہیں دکھاتی ہے۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر فی الحال نرمی کر رہا ہے اور زیادہ معلومات فراہم نہیں کر رہا ہے۔

٤- گھنٹے کے چارٹ میں، مارلن آسیلیٹر کی سگنل لائن اپنی حد سے نیچے چلی گئی ہے، جو قیمت کے نیچے کی طرف حرکت کرنے کے ارادے کی پہلی علامت ہے۔

اس ارادے کی تصدیق کرنے والی علامت مارلن کا منفی علاقے میں منتقل ہونا ہے۔ اہم واقعات 1.3095-1.3120 رینج کے اندر سامنے آئیں گے، جسے ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن مضبوط کرنے کی کوشش کر رہی ہے۔



تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

GBP/USD pair ne pullback experience kiya, jisne chaar dinon ki winning streak ko tor diya, kyunki UK aur US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data expectations se neeche raha. Yeh pair 1.2850 level ke neeche gir gaya, jo recent rally ke dauran ek key support zone tha. UK mein CPI inflation July mein 2.2% year-over-year badh gaya, jo forecast 2.3% se thoda neeche tha lekin phir bhi peechle mahine ke 2.0% se upar tha. Core inflation, jo food aur energy jese volatile items ko exclude karta hai, 3.5% se kam ho kar 3.3% ho gaya. Yeh data suggest karta hai ke UK mein inflationary pressures kam ho rahi hain, jisse Bank of England (BoE) apni rate hikes ko aane wale maheenon mein pause kar sakta hai. US mein bhi inflation ne milta julta pattern dikhaya, jahan dono headline aur core CPI expectations se neeche aaye. Is se Federal Reserve ki monetary policy outlook ka dobara andaza lagaya gaya, aur markets ab kam probability de rahi hain ke rate hikes jald hongi. Fed ka focus inflation control se shift hota dikhai de raha hai towards economic growth support, especially jab se recent data ne economic activity mein kuch cooling indicate kiya hai.
Yeh factors GBP/USD pair par downward pressure daal rahe hain. Technical factors ne bhi is decline mein apna role ada kiya, kyunki pair apni position ko 1.2900 level ke upar barqarar nahi rakh saka, jo mid-July se ek critical resistance zone raha hai. Aane wale waqt mein focus UK GDP growth data aur US Retail Sales figures par hoga jo Thursday ko release hongi. Yeh releases dono economies ke economic health ke bare mein further insights provide karengi aur GBP/USD pair ke agle direction ko influence kar sakti hain. Strong GDP growth UK mein pound ko support kar sakti hai, jabke robust US retail sales dollar ko bolster kar sakti hain. Lekin agar data disappoint karta hai, to hum pair mein further downside dekh sakte hain.

Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy:

GBP/USD asset is waqt ek upward trend par hai, after completing a falling wedge pattern, jahan usne support found kiya ascending channel ke lower boundary par. Kal ke New York session ke dauran, US Dollar Index ne dollar ke liye positive pressure create kiya, jisse yeh pair dip kar gaya near the support levels of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) aur 34-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Relative Strength Index (RSI) abhi bhi ek favorable level par hai, jo suggest karta hai ke sellers shayad apni full force exert na kar sakein, aur yeh allow kare buyers ko ke wo control maintain kar sakein aur potentially rising wedge pattern ko complete kar sakein.

Trading Strategy:
Current market conditions aur technical indicators ko madde nazar rakhte hue, GBP/USD mein cautious buying consider ki ja sakti hai, agar pair 1.2850 support level ke qareeb ya neeche trade karta hai. Price agar 1.2900 resistance level ko break karti hai, to next target 1.3042 ke aas paas ho sakta hai. Lekin agar price 1.2850 support level ke neeche sustain nahi karti, to downside risk increase ho sakta hai, aur agle support levels 1.2789 aur 1.2700 ke aas paas dekhe ja sakte hain

Daily time window par Moving Average indicator ke zariye monitor karne par, price ya candle ab bhi MA MA 50 Red area ke upar hai, jo ke 1.2785-1.2787 ke daira-e-amal mein hai. Is se lagta hai ke price dobara upar ki taraf ja sakti hai aur bullish candlestick ki formation bhi iska support hai. Filhal buyers ke paas jo faida hai, aaj trading ke doran zyada tar bullish action ki umeed hai jo ke buyers ke liye hai, target unka bullish area hoga jo ke Supply resistance Seller area 1.2958-1.2960 ke daira-e-amal mein hai
. control karne ki ijazat de raha hai. Buyers ka bullish target lagta hai ke seller's resistance area 1.2887-1.2890 ki taraf ja raha hai aur agar ye strong penetration ke saath clear hota hai, to GBPUSD pair price ko upar ki taraf tezi se barhne ka moka mil sakta hai, agla target strong seller's supply resistance area 1.2957-1.2960 hoga. GBPUSD price movement resistance area 1.28690 ke nazdeek aa rahi hai, jo ke pehle bhi kai baar test kiya gaya hai lekin break nahi ho saka. Ye level strong selling pressure ko darshata hai, jahan sellers prices ko upar jane se rokne ki koshish kar rahe hain.

Dusri taraf, support area 1.28073 ke aas paas hai, jo ke kai baar test kiya gaya hai aur price decline ko roknay mein kamiyab raha hai. Ye level buyers ke buying interest ko darshata hai, jahan buyers price ko niche girne se rokne ki koshish kar rahe hain.

Stochastic Oscillator indicator dikhata hai ke ab market overbought condition mein hai, jahan indicator line 80 level ke upar hai. Ye condition aam taur par yeh darshati hai ke prices ab bohot high level par hain aur future mein correction ya downward reversal ho sakta hai. Buy trading options ko tab kiya ja sakta hai agar price seller's resistance area ko successfully penetrate kare aur pending buy stop order ko 1.2887-1.2890 ke daira-e-amal mein rakha jaye aur TP area 1.2957-1.2960 par ho.

Sell trading options ko tab kiya ja sakta hai agar price buyers' support area ko successfully penetrate kare aur pending sell stop order ko 1.2843-1.2840 ke daira-e-amal mein rakha jaye aur TP area 1.2815-1.2813 par ho

GBP/USD ke price activity ke bare mein baat karte hue, abhi H1 level par 1.3169-49 ek rukawat bana hua hai, lekin ye resistance sirf ek din ke liye progress ko rok sakta hai. Agar pressure barqarar raha, to kal tak ek breakthrough ho sakta hai jo price ko neeche le aa sakta hai. Aaj subah system ke zariye highlight kiye gaye intraday levels ko dekhte hue, yeh kaha ja sakta hai ke upward trend intact hai, provided ke corrective move bhi aise hi rahe. Lekin, ye correction kaafi kamzor sabit hui hai. Intraday levels jo ke red aur green mein mark kiye gaye hain, wo hain 1.3106 aur 1.3228. Inmein se koi bhi level abhi tak nahi chua gaya hai, aur yeh surat-e-haal kal tak barqarar rahegi bina kisi aur narrowing ke. Aam tor par, narrowing pattern se market zyada erratic ho sakta hai, lekin kisi bhi range expansion ki ummeed kam hai. Ab tak, main kisi strong bearish move ka koi bhi indicator nahi dekh raha.

GBP/USD D1 chart par aaj ke market activity UK ke holiday ki wajah se hai, jiske chalte pair kaafi stagnant raha. Pichle trading week ne bearish success ke liye zyada opportunities nahi di; yahan tak ke minor intraday corrections bhi kafi mushkil se hue. Pair ek jack ki tarah ucha, lagbhag downturn ke liye tayar nazar aaya. Thursday ki candle, jo ek inverted hammer ki tarah thi, ne potential decline ka ishara diya. Market puray din flat raha, shayad yeh high levels par sellers ka group ikattha kar raha tha jo downward correction ka sabab ban sakta tha. Lekin, yeh umeed zyada der tak nahi rahi kyunke Friday ko United States se significant news aayi. Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman ka address aur US mein naye home sales ki announcement ne price ko tezi se upar le gaya, jo shayad kai stop losses ko trigger kar gaya aur kai accounts ko impact kiya. Yeh movement pound ke liye nahi thi; US dollar market mein kafi kamzor ho gaya.

Pound Sterling 1.3200 ke aas-paas US Dollar ke muqablay mein sideways trade kar raha hai, aur investors July ke US core PCE inflation data par dhyan de rahe hain. Fed ki Mary Daly ne kaha ke agar US labor market kharab hota hai, toh aggressive policy easing ka darwaza khula rakha hai.

British shop price inflation August mein tezi se dheema ho gaya hai. Pound Sterling (GBP) Tuesday ke London session mein 1.3200 ke round-level figure ke nazdeek gains ko pakde hue hai. GBP/USD pair pichle hafte ke sharp increase ke baad thoda aaram le raha hai, aur investors Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein interest rate cut ke size ke bare mein naye cues dekh rahe hain.

CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 30-day Federal Funds Futures pricing data dikhata hai ke September mein 50-basis-points (bps) interest-rate reduction ki probability 28.5% hai, jabke baaki 25 bps ke chhote cut ko favor karte hain. Yeh tool clearly dikhata hai ke Fed ka policy normalization traders ke liye fully priced in hai, jisne US Dollar ko ek haftay se zyada ke liye peechay rakha hai.

US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ki value ko chhay major currencies ke muqablay mein track karta hai, 101.00 ke immediate resistance ke neeche subdued performance dikhata hai.

San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly ne Monday ko September mein interest rates cut karne ki zaroorat ko emphasize kiya. Daly ne 25 bps interest rate cut ko support kiya, lekin agar labor market kharab hota hai toh bade cut ke liye bhi darwaza khula rakha. Yeh interview Bloomberg par diya gaya.

Investors ka confidence badha hai ke Fed September se interest rates cut karne shuru karega, jab Fed Chair Jerome Powell ne Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium mein apni speech mein kaha ke policy ko adjust karne ka waqt aa gaya hai. Jerome Powell ne easing labor market conditions par bhi concerns dikhaye aur support karne ka vaada kiya.

Is hafte, investors core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data par focus karenge jo Friday ko publish hoga. Annual core PCE ka 2.7% tak barhne ka estimate hai, pichle release se 2.6% se, aur monthly figures steady 0.2% se barhne ki ummeed hai. Isse pehle, US economic calendar Tuesday ko S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for June aur The Conference Board’s gauge of Consumer Confidence for August ka release dega.

Pound Sterling apne major peers ke muqablay mein majbooti dikhata hai, siwaye Asia-Pacific currencies ke, Tuesday ko. British currency upbeat market sentiment aur United Kingdom (UK) ke improving economic outlook ka faida utha rahi hai. Economic prospects behtar hue hain jab flash S&P Global/CIPS PMI ne dikhaya ke manufacturing aur service sectors dono August mein expected se tez badhe.

Bank of England (BoE) ke September mein aur interest rate cut ke bets decline hone se bhi Pound Sterling ki appeal behtar hui hai. Yeh scenario low hai kyunki BoE officials ko lagta hai ke inflation phir se barhegi, jabke price pressures pipeline mein dheeme ho rahe hain.

British shop prices August mein pehli baar October 2021 ke baad decline hui hain, British Retail Consortium (BRC) ke data ke mutabiq. Non-food goods ke prices 1.5% se gire hain, jo summer clothes sales ke dheeme hone ke wajah se hai, aur yeh teen saal mein sabse bada girawat hai. Food prices 2.0% ke dheeme pace se barhe hain, jo November 2021 ke baad ka sabse chhota rise hai, July mein 2.3% se kam.

Pound Sterling ne US Dollar ke muqablay mein 1.3200 ka naya do saal se zyada ka high banane ke baad sideways movement shuru kar diya hai. GBP/USD pair ne weekly time frame par Rising Channel chart formation ko breakout karne ke baad majbooti dikhayi. Agar bullish momentum dobara shuru hota hai, toh Cable ka upar ki taraf extension expected hai, jo February 4, 2022 ke high 1.3640 tak ja sakta hai.

Upward-sloping 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), jo 1.2766 ke aas-paas hai, ek strong upside trend ko suggest karta hai.

14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish range 60.00-80.00 main oscillate kar raha hai, jo strong upside momentum ko dikhata hai. Lekin, RSI 70.00 ke aas-paas overbought levels tak pahunch gaya hai, jo corrective pullback ke chances ko badhata hai. Neeche ki taraf, 1.3000 ka psychological level Pound Sterling bulls ke liye crucial support hoga.

GBP/USD price activity ka mutaala karte hue, H1 level pe 1.3169-49 ek rukawat bana hua hai, magar yeh resistance sirf ek din ke liye progress ko delay kar sakta hai. Agar pressure barqarar rehta hai, toh kal yeh level break ho sakta hai, jis se price neeche ja sakti hai. Subha ke waqt jo intraday levels system ne highlight kiye thay, unka mutaala karte hue kaha ja sakta hai ke upward trend abhi tak barqarar hai, jab tak corrective move jari hai. Magar yeh correction kaafi kamzor sabit hui hai. Intraday levels jo red aur green mein mark kiye gaye hain, wo 1.3106 aur 1.3228 hain. In levels ko abhi tak nahi touch kiya gaya, aur yeh situation kal tak barqarar rehne wali hai, jab tak mazeed narrowing na ho jaye. Aam tor pe, narrowing pattern se market zyada erratic ho sakti hai, lekin kisi bhi range expansion ka imkaan kam hai. Ab tak koi mazboot indicator nazar nahi aata ke ek decisive bearish move ho sakta hai.


GBP/USD ke D1 chart pe, aaj ka market activity UK mein chutti ke waja se khaamosh rahi. Guzishta trading week mein bearish success ke liye bohat kam chances thay; hatta ke choti intraday corrections bhi mushkil se hui. Yeh pair upar jata raha jaise ek jack, aur lag raha tha ke downturn ke liye tayar hai. Thursday ka candle, jo ek inverted hammer jaisa tha, ne ek potential decline ka ishara diya. Magar market poore din flat raha, shayad yeh sellers ka ek group accumulate ho raha tha jo ke upar ke levels se neeche correction ka intezar kar rahe thay. Lekin yeh umeed zyada der nahi tikki kyunke Friday ko US se ahem khabrein aayi. Jerome Powell, jo ke Federal Reserve ke Chairman hain, unke address aur naye home sales ke elan ke baad price mein achanak tezi aayi, jis ne shayad bohot se stop losses trigger kar diye aur kai accounts ko nuksaan pohchaya. Yeh movement pound ke liye nahi thi, balki US dollar market mein considerable tor par weak ho gaya.