gbp/usd

**GBP/USD Analysis in Roman Urdu:**

Aaj, Wednesday ke din, GBP/USD European session mein 1.2650 ke qareeb girawat dekha raha hai. Federal Reserve aur Bank of England ke mukhtalif policy approaches aur UK elections ke hawalay se market mein pae jany wali bekari is pair ko nazuk banaye huay hai, yeh baat risk appetite ke bawajood GBP/USD ko pressure mein rakh rahi hai. Filhal, traders ka focus mid-range US data par hai kyun ke UK calendar data filhal khali hai.

4-hour chart par Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator 50 se thora niche hai, jo buyer interest mein kami ka pata de raha hai. Agar downside dekhi jaye, to 100-day aur 50-day simple moving averages strong support form karte hain 1.2640 ke qareeb. Yeh level, latest uptrend ke Fibonacci 38.2% retracement se bhi supported hai. Agar GBP/USD is level ke niche break karta hai aur isay resistance ke taur par use karna shuru karta hai, to 1.2600 (psychological level, static level) aur 1.2580 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) aglay bearish targets ho sakte hain.

Resistance ki baat karen, to 1.2700 (200-period SMA on 4-hour chart) pehli resistance banata hai, uske baad 1.2730 (100-period SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) aur 1.2800 (psychological level, static level) hain. Tuesday ko GBP/USD ne koshish ki lekin surface clear nahi kar saka. Is wajah se, Wednesday ko bhi pair ne minor bearish pressure maintain rakha, aur agar 1.2640 support toot gaya, to ek extended slide dekhi ja sakti hai.

Market mein ehtiyat ka rawaya, jab advanced data mojood nahi hai, ne US dollar ko mazboot banaye rakha hai. Fed ke dovish comments bhi USD ko support kar rahe hain. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman ne Tuesday ko kaha ke woh abhi interest rates cut karne ke liye tayar nahi hain, aur agar inflation barqarar rehta hai ya wapis aata hai to woh rate hikes ko target karengi. US stock index futures mein halka izafa hua hai, lekin Wall Street par bullish start USD ke gains ko limit kar sakta hai, jis se GBP/USD ko apna qadam wapis jamane mein madad mil sakti hai. Lekin phir bhi, pair ke liye bullish momentum ikattha karna mushkil ho sakta hai, kyun ke investors UK elections ke intezar mein bade positions lene se katra rahe hain.

Technical analysis yeh batata hai ke initial support 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke qareeb 1.2600 par hai, aur mazid support ascending channel ke lower boundary ke qareeb 1.2500 par anticipated hai. Agar yeh levels breach hote hain, to selling pressure mazeed barh sakta hai, jo key support 1.2451 ko test kar sakta hai. Agar is level se break through hota hai, to yeh GBP/USD pair ko upper boundary of the ascending channel ke taraf push kar sakta hai. Hal filhal main, is mamlay mein bullish targets ko consider nahi kar raha hoon kyun ke abhi mujhe is ke mazeed oper janay ka qawi imkan nahi lag raha. Is mamlay mein alternative scenario yeh hoga ke price support level 1.25694 ke qareeb pohch jaye aur is level ke niche close karay, phir mazeed southward movement dekhi ja sakti hai. Agar yeh plan execute hota hai, to main expect karunga ke price support level 1.24661 ya 1.24456 ke qareeb move karega. In support levels ke qareeb main bullish signals ki talaash karta rahunga, taake upward price movement ka resume hone ka intezar karoon. In short, is waqt mujhe yeh puri expectation hai ke price south ke qareeb push hoti rahegi, aur phir mujhe bullish signals ki talash karni hogi in anticipation ke price wapis upar move kare.

**GBP/USD Currency Pair Analysis:**

GBP/USD currency pair ne Tuesday ko kuch khaas performance nahi dikhayi, jo ke broader market trend ki misaal thi jahan investors caution ka shikar rahe. Economic data ki kami ki wajah se traders decisive bets lene mein hesitant the, aur is wajah se pair 1.2700 ke qareeb hover kar raha tha. Tuesday ko data vacuum market activity ko dheema banane ka ek bara factor tha. UK aur US dono ne impactful data releases nahi diye. UK data expectations se kam raha, jabke US data mid-tier economic performance ke hawalay se bilkul bhi nahi aaya.

Richmond Fed ka manufacturing index ne ek chinta ka paigham diya, jo June mein -10 tak gir gaya, jabke pichle release mein yeh 0 tha. Yeh sharp decline analyst predictions se kaafi zyada kam tha, jo ke 2 tak barhne ki ummeed thi. US mein consumer confidence bhi kamzor hota dikhayi diya, lekin decline utna severe nahi tha jitna anticipate kiya gaya tha. CB Consumer Confidence Survey 102.0 se 100.4 tak gir gaya, jo ke predicted 100.0 level se kam tha.

Aane wale dinon mein market ko data injection ka intezar hai jo shayad stagnant market ko stir kar sake. Thursday ko Bank of England apni latest financial stability report issue karega. Uske baad key data releases US se bhi honge, jismein pehla quarter ke durable goods orders aur US GDP figures ke revisions shamil hain.

Week ke end tak low-impact trading pattern ke continuation ki umeed hai. Friday ko UK's quarterly GDP review aur US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index ke latest figures release honge, jo Federal Reserve ke liye ek key inflation gauge hai. Investors US inflation ke further decline ke signs ko closely dekh rahe hain taake Fed ke monetary policy trajectory ko September meeting se pehle assess kiya ja sake.

Technically, GBP/USD pair ke liye downward trend ka potential nazar aa raha hai. Halanki current price action 200-hour exponential moving average (EMA) ke upar hai jo ke 1.2693 ke aas-paas hai, 1.2700 level ek formidable obstacle ban raha hai. Agar bullish momentum ka sustained decline hota hai to pair lower move kar sakta hai, jo ke July lows 1.2630 ke niche breach kar sakta hai. Daily price chart bhi technical congestion ka paigham de raha hai, jahan pair supply zone ke niche 1.2800 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai aur 50-day EMA ke confines mein 1.2673 ke qareeb hai.

**GBP/USD Analysis: H1 Chart**

GBP/USD pair ne trading ka aghaz 1.26350 level se kiya aur phir H1 support level C: 1.26268 tak gir gaya. Yeh level break karne ke baad, price M30 support level C: 1.26222 tak pohnchi, jahan se upar aayi aur daily pivot ki taraf barhne ki umeed hai. Agar yeh H1 resistance level: 1.2637 ko break kar leti hai, to daily pivot level FPV: 1.26387 tak pohnchne ke chances hain. Agar price is level ko push nahi karti aur upar ki taraf expand hoti hai, to next target H4 resistance level C: 1.26540 ho sakta hai.

Agar price yahan se niche aati hai aur din ka low yLow: 1.26116 break karti hai, to agla support level S3: 1.25810 dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Yeh level D1 support level: 1.26175 aur H4 support level: 1.26133 ke qareeb hai. In support levels ke niche koi significant support ya resistance levels nahi hain, S4: 1.25453 tak. Agar price support level ko break karti hai aur kal ke level ko nahi jeet paati, to volatility ke sath hum definitely 1.25453 tak ke drop ki ummeed rakh sakte hain, agar aur niche nahi chali jaye.

Agar price daily pivot level ko break karti hai aur H4 resistance level C: 1.26540 ko bhi break karti hai, to major move north tak pohnchne ki umeed hai, jahan High: 1.26693 tak target ho sakta hai. Upar ki taraf target D1 resistance level: 1.26815 ya resistance level R3: 1.26964 ho sakta hai, jo 1.27000 level ke qareeb hai.

ZUP indicator bullish formation ke baad yeh values leta hai: 786 * AB = CD. Bullish method tab effective ho sakti hai jab price 1.26169 ke niche na jaye. Slow (50.10.25) aur 33.6 se 29.8 signal line higher territory mein move karti nazar aa rahi hai. Strong momentum (5.3.3) ke values 28.7 aur 27.6 hain, jo sell zone ya higher move ka crossroads dikhati hain. Shayad price 61.8: 1.26515 Fibonacci level tak pohnchti hai, jo H4 resistance level C: 1.2654 ke qareeb hai, aur uske baad recovery aur further targets ki taraf girti rahegi.

Daily chart par price action consolidate ho raha hai aur aaj bhi trading ranging lag rahi hai. Moving averages aur technical indicators bearish signal de rahe hain, isliye bearish movement sabse zyada mumkin lagti hai. UK se positive news aur US se negative news aayi hai, aur agle important news releases bhi neutral forecast ke sath hain. Aaj ke liye pair ke ranging movement ki umeed hai, aur support level 1.2620 ke towards selling opportunities dekhne ko mil sakti hain. Resistance level 1.2650 ke towards buying opportunities bhi mil sakti hain. Yehi trading plan hai baqi trading time ke liye.

**GBP/USD Analysis: 29 June 2024**

Sab ko acha weekend ki dua. Sterling ne kal trading session ko close kiya, lekin asal mein weekend ke iraadon ko dikhana behtar hoga. Aksar aisa hota hai ke ye plan mumkin nahi hota kyun ke waqt ka factor kaafi ahmiyat rakhta hai aur suppliers ke paas do poore din hote hain plan banane ke liye. Isliye, nayi haftay ki shuruaat mein zyada umeed na rakhna behtar hoga.

Chaliye ab hum wo material review karte hain jo humne seekha hai. Yaad dilana chahunga ke humein saal ke chouthay half mein sell signal mila tha. Halankeh pound gir gaya, lekin isne koi zyada asar nahi chhoda. Signal level 1.27218 par hai aur target level 1.25855 hai. Agar koi uchaal hota hai, to ye indicator tab bhi qeemat rakhega jab tak 1.28588 ka risk overcome nahi hota. Main ne ek wedge pattern bhi identify kiya hai jo dikhata hai ke pound apne girawat ko kam kar raha hai aur slope mein changes aate nazar aa rahe hain jo bullish trend ka ishara dete hain. Lekin, kyun ke chouthay half mein breakout ya buy signal nahi mila, isliye is waqt bullish trend ko justify nahi kiya ja sakta.

Kuch ghanton mein buy signals mil sakte hain, lekin ye sirf assumptions par based hain, facts par nahi. Is indicator ki strength ek dark line se mark ki gayi hai, aur target 1.26827 hai. Detail se dekhne par ye clear hai ke jo capacity hour mark se dikhayi gayi hai, wo itni important nahi hai. Yeh zyada visible hai ek false break ke tor par jo wedge ke upper limit ke upar hai aur price H4 time frame ke niche operate kar sakti hai. Main H4 indicator ke execution ke liye 1.27687 ya 1.27946 se zyada entry ko prefer karta hoon. Is dauran, pehle level ka risk-return ratio 1 to 2 hai aur doosre level ka 1 to 3 hai. Sterling yeh bina apne sales plan ko chouthay half mein devalue kiye bina kar sakta hai, bas deep north ki taraf move kar ke. Lekin, ye assumption tab tak valid rahegi jab tak downside risk bacha rahega aur stop loss unchanged rahega.

**GBP/USD Analysis:**

USD pairs ke aane wale data ke mutabiq, pound sterling ki qeemat mid-week trading mein US dollar ke muqablay mein ek tehai kam ho gayi, jo "tight" signals ke sabab thi jo US Federal Reserve ke officials ne diye. Is ka natija yeh tha ke pound sterling ki keemat GBP/USD par asar انداز ہوئی اور 1.2612 ke level tak pohanch gayi jo ke chay hafton mein sabse kam price thi. Likhen ab isne 1.2645 ke level par stability show ki hai jab hum yeh likh rahe hain, aur ahem American economic releases se pehle.

US dollar ki keemat already euro-centric risks se aage hai, jo ke French weekend elections se dominate ho sakti hai jo shayad European Central Bank ko interest rates aur kam karne ke liye majboor kar de. Analysts ka kehna hai ke Canada aur Australia mein pichle 24 ghanton mein inflation rates ka surprising pace global inflation ke baare mein concerns ko barha raha hai, jo bond yields ko upar le gaya. Kai Fed officials ne is saal interest rates ko kam karne ke khayal ko criticize kiya hai, jo bond markets par pressure daal raha hai aur aakhir kar US dollar ko faida pohanchata hai.

Isliye, Brown Brothers Harriman ke expert Dr. Win Thein ka kehna hai ke "Fed officials abhi bhi sakht hain." US (uzar aur lambay waqt tak high interest rates), United Kingdom, aur Eurozone ke darmiyan interest rate policy ka farq US dollar ko support karta hai.

Hali mein diye gaye bayan ke mutabiq, Fed policymaker Michelle Bowman ka kehna hai: "Hum abhi tak us point par nahi pohnche jahan interest rates ko kam karna munasib hai." "Apne economic outlook mein risks aur uncertainties ko dekhte hue, main future monetary policy changes ko ehtiyaat se dekhoongi." Unhone apni political position bhi bayaan ki. Unhone yeh bhi kaha ke kai officials is saal cuts nahi dekh rahe, kyun ke wo interest rates ko stable rakhne par yaqeen rakhte hain. Fed ke June 12 forecasts ke mutabiq, unhone aur unke colleagues ne ek cut dekha, jabke kuch do cuts dekh rahe hain. "Agar inflation ruk jaye ya ulta ho jaye to main future meetings mein federal funds rate target range ko barhane ke liye tayar hoon," Bowman ne add kiya.

Federal Reserve President Lisa De Kock ne cuts ko accept karne ke liye zyada openness dikhayi, kehna tha: "Agar inflation aur dheemi hoti hai aur underlying activity mein gradual slowdown hota hai, to policy restrictions ko kam karna munasib ho sakta hai taake economy ka healthy balance bana rahe." Unhone yeh bhi kaha ke aise adjustment ka timing economic data ke unfold hone aur expectations aur risk balance par depend karega. Market ab bhi November ko cut ke liye sabse mumkin waqt dekh raha hai, halankeh September mein 70% chance hai ke cut ho sakta hai.

**Aaj ke Sterling Dollar Forecast:**

Daily chart ke mutabiq, British pound ki keemat US dollar ke muqablay mein ab bhi bearish hai, aur 1.2600 ke support level ko todna bearish trend ko mazid barha sakta hai. Agla psychological support 1.2445 par hai, jo technical indicators ko strong overbought levels tak le ja sakta hai, aur yeh ek important buying area ban sakta hai. Doosri taraf, is dauran current bearish channel tab tak nahi toota jab tak resistance 1.2775 ki taraf nahi barhta. Aaj, GBP/USD pair ko US GDP growth reading, weekly jobless claims data, aur durable goods orders announcements se asar ho sakta hai.

**GBP/USD Analysis: 29.06.2024**

Sab ko achha weekend ki dua. Kal ka trading session pound ke liye uncertainty ke saath khatam hua. Lekin weekend ke liye apne iraadon ko reveal karne se yeh behtar hai. Kyunki waqt ka element kafi ahmiyat rakhta hai aur traders ke paas do poore din hain plan banane ke liye, isliye yeh mumkin hai ke in plans ka amal na ho. Is liye, hum do mukhtalif situations ka samna kar rahe hain, aur naye hafte ke aghaz par zyada expectations rakhna behtar nahi hai.

Chaliye, humne jo material study kiya hai uska jaiza lete hain. Main yaad dilana chahunga ke H4 timeframe par humare paas ek sell signal hai. Halankeh pound ka downward movement hua, lekin yeh signal execute nahi hua. Signal level 1.27218 par hai, aur targets 1.25855 par hain. Agar upward movement hoti hai bhi, yeh signal tab tak valid rahega jab tak iska risk level 1.28588 breach nahi hota. Is ke ilawa, maine ek wedge pattern identify kiya hai jo yeh indicate karta hai ke pound ne apni decline ko slow kar diya hai aur slope change kiya hai, jo ek potential rise ka indication hai. Lekin is waqt rise trade karna bekaar hai kyun ke upward structure mein koi break nahi hua aur H4 timeframe par koi buy signal nahi hai.

Hourly timeframe par ek buy signal hai. Lekin, yeh concrete evidence se supported nahi hai, sirf speculations hain. Is signal ki potential brown bar se mark ki gayi hai, aur targets 1.26827 hain. Gaur se dekha jaye to hourly timeframe signal ki potential zyada ahmiyat nahi rakhti. Yeh zyada tar wedge ke upper boundary ke upar false breakout lagti hai, aur price shayad H4 timeframe par neeche ki taraf continue kare. Jaise ke pehle zikr kiya gaya, H4 timeframe signal ke liye, main 1.27687 ya 1.27946 se enter karne ko prefer karta hoon. Pehla level is bearish scenario mein 1 to 2 ka risk-to-reward ratio dega, jabke doosra level 1 to 3 ka ratio provide karega. Pound is tarah se apne sell plan ko invalid nahi karega, bas deep northern retracement provide karke. Lekin, jab tak decline ki potential bani hui hai aur stop-loss intact hai, yeh bearish idea valid rahega.

GBP/USD Weekly Chart Analysis:

GBP/USD ke weekly chart par, jab price ne 1.27025 par local resistance level ko neeche se upar test kiya, toh price ne wahan se bounce kiya aur ek bearish reversal candle banayi jo south ki taraf pointed thi. Mere khayal se, agle hafte is instrument par bearish correction movement ka silsila jari rahega, aur price sab se nazdeek support level 1.25694 tak gir sakti hai. Jaise ke maine pehle bhi zikar kiya, is support level ke qareeb do scenarios samne aa sakte hain.

Pehla scenario yeh hai ke ek bullish reversal candle banayegi aur price upar ki taraf reverse hogi. Agar yeh scenario implement hota hai, toh main price ke 1.27025 ya 1.27399 ke resistance levels par wapas aane ka intezar karunga. Jab price in resistance levels ke upar close karegi, main further bullish movement ki ummeed karunga jo ke 1.28604 ya 1.28938 ke resistance levels tak ja sakti hai. In resistance levels ke qareeb, main trading setup ki formation ki umeed karunga jo agle trading direction ko determine karega. Haan, yeh bhi mumkin hai ke price ko 1.29956 ke resistance level ki taraf bhi push kiya jaye. Lekin, agar yeh plan implement hota hai, toh mujhe lagta hai ke raaste mein bearish pullbacks aayenge jo ultimate northern target ki taraf honge. Main in pullbacks ka use karunga bullish signals dhoondhne ke liye jo nazdeek ke support levels se mil sakte hain, aur expect karunga ke downward price movement wapas start hogi global bullish trend ke framework ke under.

Dusra scenario yeh hai ke agar price ne 1.25694 ke support level ko retest karne ke baad is level ke neeche close kiya aur further bearish movement dikhayi. Agar yeh scenario play out hota hai, toh main expect karunga ke price 1.24601 ya 1.24506 ke support levels ki taraf move karegi. In support levels ke qareeb bhi, main bullish signals dhoondhta rahunga, aur upward price movement ke resumption ki umeed karunga.

Mukhtasir yeh ke, agle hafte ke liye mere paas yeh wajah hai ke bearish movement local level par continue rahegi, price ko sab se nazdeek support level test karne ka moka milega. Wahan se main bullish signals ki talash karunga aur price movement ke upar ki taraf reversal ki ummeed karunga.

GBP/USD: Ek Model Ke Faide Aur Nuksan

Haal hi mein buying activity ne range ko naye taqat di hai, khaaskar upper end par. Consumer prices mein is izafa se ek reversal ka signal mil sakta hai, jo ke pehla girawat ya bara girawat ho sakta hai. Buying power ke bawajood, pair ke barhne ke dauran clear resistance dekha gaya aur early sellers ne is move ko block karne ki koshish ki. Rally ka silsila jaari rakhne ke liye, selling pressure ko kam karna padega aur sterling ko upar jaane ki ijaazat deni hogi. Khushi ki baat yeh hai ke 1-hour chart par ek long-term buying pattern ka nishan hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke market bear market mein ho sakti hai jahan price volatility range mein hai. GBP/USD ka trading range 1.2440 aur 1.2590 levels se define hota hai, jo short-term direction determine karne ke liye important hain. Is weekend par short positions inactive rahi hain kyunki market ne apni zyada momentum kho di hai.

Jab traders ko choti profit opportunity milti hai, toh wo ek indecision period ka samna karte hain, jab tak woh opportunity kam nahi hoti. Lekin, din bhar price stable rehne ke wajah se exit positions lene ya losses cut karne ka faisla liya gaya. 1.2440 tak girawat divergence ki direction ko confirm karti hai. Halankeh positive GDP figures ne shuru mein pound ko support kiya, lekin is growth ki raftaar dheemi hui hai, jo ke current sales increases ki wajah se ho sakta hai. Fundamental factors ki kami jo lower prices ko cause karte hain, yeh suggest karti hai ke selling pressure ko kam kiya ja sakta hai. Technical indicators kehte hain ke momentum build hota ja raha hai, aur kuch direction mil sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar buyers wapas aate hain aur price ko downward line ke upar push karte hain, toh pehla rukawat April 1 aur March 2564 ke beech resistance area hoga. Is barrier ko todne se 1.2632 ke aas-paas reversal ho sakta hai. April mein 1.2708 address karne ke baad further tests ho sakte hain. Badi picture dekhte hue, daily chart par technical trends dikhayi dete hain. GBP/USD ab bhi head-neck-shoulders (H&S) chart ke neeche hai, jo aam tor par reversal signal karta hai. Yeh trend mid-April mein dekha gaya jab pound neck ke neeche break karne ke baad gir gaya. 14-period RSI jo 40 aur 60 ke beech move kar raha hai, market participants ke beech decision-making ko signal karta hai aur short-term direction ko uncertain banata hai. Overall, GBP/USD ne recent sessions mein apni kafi value kho di hai kyunki yeh 50-day SMA ke reaction mein fail ho gaya hai. Isliye, pair ko short-term chart ko behtar banane ke liye March ke low ko connect karne wali lower line ke upar break karna padega.

GBP/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Bartanwi pound beghair kisi pullbacks ke ooper ki taraf karobar jari rakhe hue hai. Qalil muddati chart par karobar karna ek behtarin faisla hai jo haqiqi reversal se chukne se bachayega. Tawil muddati time frame, 1-ghante aur 4-ghante ke chart par suratehal ko dekhte hue, support aur muzahmat ki satahein qimat se kafi dur hain. Takniki taur par, Fibonacci levels ka istemal karna qabile qadar hai, jo aap ko unki buniyad par takniki tajziyah karne me aap ki madad karega. To, 5-minute aur 15-minute ke chart par intraday trading ke kya imkanat hain? Markazi rujhan tezi ka hai, lekin maujudah qalil muddati rujhan mandi ka hai. Lehaza ham ise trading ki buniyad ke taur par istemal kar sakte hain. Sabhi ko Good luck aur profits.

GBPUSD ki movement kafi badi thi, kyun ke ye 100 pips tak move kar gaya. Us waqt candle 1.2765 se 1.2865 tak chal gayi thi, jiski wajah se Wednesday ki market opening pichle mahine se kafi uchi thi. Agar h1 timeframe se analyze karein, to candle abhi bhi supply area mein 1.2864 ke price par stuck hai. Jab tak ye supply area pass nahi hota, GBPUSD ki movement down hone ka possibility hai. Lekin agar supply area break ho jata hai, to movement continue upward bhi ho sakti hai. Ek doji candle pattern bhi resistance area mein nazar aayi hai, jo aam tor par GBPUSD ki movement ko down bana sakti hai. Agar supply area penetrate hota hai to GBPUSD ka target resistance ke upar, jo 1.2989 ke aas-paas hai, ho sakta hai. Aur agar GBPUSD movement down hoti hai, to support area 1.2684 ki taraf move kar sakti hai.

Ichimoku indicator se analyze karne par, since candle Tenkan Sen aur Kijun Sen lines ke upar hai, GBPUSD ki movement upwards jaane ki trend dikha rahi hai. Ye position indicate karti hai ke trend abhi bhi bullish hai. Indicator ye bhi batata hai ke Wednesday ko GBPUSD ke rise hone ke chances kafi hain, kyun ke candle Kumo ke upar bhi hai, jo indicate karta hai ke upward pressure strong hai.

Lekin stochastic indicator ye show kar raha hai ke GBPUSD overbought hai. Shayad near future mein GBPUSD ki movement gir sakti hai, lekin ye zaroori nahi hai, kabhi kabhi aise position mein price upar bhi ja sakti hai. Point ye hai ke stochastic agar level 20 ko penetrate karta hai, to mujhe cautious rehna hoga kyun ke movement kabhi bhi reverse ho sakti hai. Mere liye aaj GBPUSD ki rise par focus hai.

To conclusion ye hai ke aaj GBPUSD upar jayega agar supply area 1.2868 ko break kar deta hai, aur agar nahi hota to GBPUSD ki movement down ho sakti hai. Ichimoku indicator ke according candle position Tenkan Sen aur Kijun Sen lines ke upar hone ki wajah se, upward movement ke chances abhi bhi bade hain. Isliye, main recommend karta hoon ke buy position tab open karein jab supply break ho jaye. Take profit target ko nearest support 1.2790 par rakh sakte hain aur stop loss ko resistance 1.2880 par place kar sakte hain

Price Action Analysis: GBP/USD

Aaj humari guftagu ka mawzu hai GBP/USD currency pair ke price movements ka tajziya. Market dynamics mein kafi tabdeeli aayi hai, jahan pound-dollar currency pair ab upward trend ki taraf ja raha hai. Iska badi wajah US dollar ki girti hui qeemat hai jo duniya ki badi currencies ke muqablay mein, jismein British pound bhi shaamil hai. US ke baraks, Britain mein labor market mazboot hai, aur wage growth bhi taiz raftaar se barh rahi hai. Jumma ke din, GBP/USD pair 1.3219 par close hua tha, aur jab tak pound 1.3134-1.3139 range ke upar rahta hai, bulls control mein rahenge, jahan agla target mumkinan 1.3299 ho sakta hai. Hourly chart thoda unreliable ho sakta hai, lekin four-hour chart zyada yaqeen deh hai. Agar yeh formation sahi saabit hoti hai, toh yeh kariban 149 points ka gain de sakti hai. Haan, abhi is point par sell karne ka soch nahi raha.



Pichlay haftay, GBP/USD ke bulls ne bears ko faisla kun tor par peeche chor diya. Jumma ko Powell ke remarks ne market ko mazeed hilaya, lekin main is par zyada focus nahi karna chah raha, kyunke yeh already pareshaani ka sababi hai, aur main is par zaroorat se zyada tawajjo de chuka hoon. Yeh usi tarah hai jaise puranay log order maintain karne ki koshish karte hain, chahe jo bhi karna paray. Yeh job ho gaya hai, aur ab woh jaa sakte hain, lekin mujhe yeh sochne par majboor karta hai ke Powell apna istifa dene ka soch rahe hain ya nahi. Unka focus Democrats aur Trump dono ko khush rakhne par nazar aata hai. Mujhe umeed hai ke market weekend par dobara sochaygi aur Monday se bearish retrace karegi, ideally 1.2999 ki taraf. Halaanke, pre-market mein kuch zyada harkat nahi hai (halaanke pehle main ne dekha tha ke euro-dollar ki qeemat 1.1107 par thi, jo pichlay haftay ki close ke takreeban 99 points neeche thi, lekin ab qeemat Friday ki close ke aas paas stable ho gayi hai). Main yeh wazeh karna chahta hoon ke ek expanding formation hai jisko maine abhi tak theek se analyze nahi kiya. Pattern ke andar 59 points hain, lekin 89 points iske bahar move ho chuke hain.

GBP/USD Pair ki Technical Analysis





1-hour chart par dekha jaye toh aaj ki trading price ne safed rang ke triangle ke andar shuru ki, jo ke chart par dikhaye gaye do channels ka nateeja hai, kyunke pichlay do trading dinon ke dauran pair ki movement ka rukh upar ki taraf tha. Price ne chand ghante resistance ka saamna kiya upper triangle line se, jiski wajah se price mein girawat dekhi gayi. Yeh safed triangle ko neeche ki taraf torne mein kamyab raha, aur is waqt price neeche wale neelay channel line ki taraf ja rahi hai.

Weekly pivot level channel line ke qareeb hai, aur yeh price ke liye ek support area hoga jo usay wapis upar le ja sakta hai. Lekin trading mein faisla karne ke liye aapko intezaar karna hoga ke price support area ke saath kaisa bartao karti hai. Aap tab buy kar sakte hain jab price weekly pivot level se upar ki taraf rebound kare. Aap sale mein bhi enter kar sakte hain agar weekly pivot level toot jaye.

Maashi point of view se, GBP/USD price abhi haali mein do saal ke buland tareen satah par pohanchi hai, jab Powell ne US interest rates mein cut ki baat ki thi. Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ne wazeh ishaara diya ke US interest rates mein kami aane wali hai. Unhon ne kaha, "Yeh waqt hai policy ko adjust karne ka."

Lekin, September ki cut koi nayi khabar nahi hai; khabar yeh hai ke markets ko ishaara mil gaya hai ke Fed aanay wale mahinon mein mazeed cuts ke liye tayar hai. Powell ne mazeed kaha, "Labor market ki conditions mein susti aana laazmi hai." Yeh bhi izafa kiya, "Aisa lagta nahi ke labor market kisi bhi waqt elevated inflationary pressures ka source banega."

GBP/USD ka exchange rate 1.32 tak barh gaya hai — jo ke do saal ki buland tareen satah hai — jab financial markets ne mazeed comments ko test kiya ke "hum labor market ki conditions mein mazeed susti ki talash nahi kar rahe hain aur na hi iska khair maqdam karte hain."

Yeh ek wazeh ishaara hai ke US Federal Reserve ab growth ko defend karne ke liye tayar hai taake aanay wale quarters mein US job losses ko minimum rakha ja sake. Ismein policy easing shamil hogi, jo ke stocks aur pound jaise risk-exposed assets ko barha sakti hai.

GBP/USD ki Roman Urdu Mein Tajziya

Yeh pair dosray musalsal session ke liye upward trajectory par hai, aur Monday ko Asian trading hours ke dauran 1.3192 ke aas paas trade kar raha tha. Four-hour chart ke tajziye se maloom hota hai ke yeh pair ek ascending channel ke andar consolidate kar raha hai, jo iski price movements ke liye bullish outlook ki taraf ishara karta hai.

Central Bank ke Faislay aur Mazboot US Growth ka GBP/USD par Asar:

Agla hafta central bank action ke liye aham hoga, jahan Federal Reserve (Fed) aur Bank of England (BoE) dono apne rate decisions announce karenge. Umeed hai ke Fed apna maujooda rate ek aur meeting ke liye barqarar rakhega, jabke BoE se ek quarter-point rate cut ki tawaqo ki ja rahi hai. Money markets kehte hain ke BoE ka benchmark rate 5.25% se 5.0% tak kam ho sakta hai. Yeh interest rate differential ki narrowing ki tawaqo Pound Sterling par downward pressure daal rahi hai.

US se haali mein aane wale maashi data mein mazboot growth rate ko highlight kiya gaya hai, jaisa ke US Department of Commerce ne report kiya. Q2 GDP ke advance estimate ne 2.8% ki annual growth rate dikhayi hai, jo Q1 ke 1.4% se upar hai aur 2% ke forecast ko bhi surpass karta hai. Yeh stronger-than-expected maashi performance future mein Fed ki policies ko asar Andaz ker sakti hai. aur GBP/USD ki trading ko bhi mutasir kar sakti hai.

GBP/USD ki Technical Analysis:

Is waqt spot prices recent rally ke 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level ke thora upar trade kar rahe hain, jo ke August ke swing low se hai. Yeh support 1.2663 ke qareeb hai. Agar yeh level toot jata hai toh mazeed selling ko trigger kar sakta hai, jis se pair ko 1.3111 tak drag kiya ja sakta hai, jo ke 50% Fibonacci level se mail khata hai. Agla aham support 1.3147 ke aas paas hai, aur uske baad 61.8% Fibonacci level ke qareeb 1.3077 par hai. In levels ke neeche ek faisla kun break mazeed losses ki nishani ho sakta hai.



Bullish technical outlook ke bawajood, pair ne lagataar chaar dinon se 1.3200 ke level ke aas paas ziyada movement nahi ki. Stronger-than-expected UK PMI data bhi anticipated boost nahi de saka, aur jabke sellers ne kai martaba pair ko 1.3200 ke upar push karne mein kamyabi hasil ki hai, ek daily close is key level ke neeche mazeed retracement ke aaghaz ki taraf ishara kar sakta hai.

GBP/USD ke Saath Trading Ke Mawaqe

Aaj humari guftagu GBP/USD currency pair ki price action analysis ke hawalay se hogi. Yeh baat ab zyada wazeh ho gayi hai ke guzishta ek saal ke dauran, uske speeches aur sahafiyon ke sawalon ke jawab ne musalsal dollar ko kamzor kiya hai. Yeh trend November pichlay saal se shuru huwa aur tab se taqreeban har speech ke baad jari raha hai. Mujhe har dafa is se zyada assertive stance ki tawaqo hoti hai, lekin woh aksar ek measured message deta hai, jis ki waja se US dollar mein speculative movements hoti hain, expert interpretations ke basis par. Rate cut inflation ko barha sakti hai, lekin phir bhi mujhe lagta hai ke yeh action election ke baad liya jayega. Lekin agar rate waqai September mein cut hota hai, toh yeh GBP/USD ke liye faida uthana ka point signal kar sakta hai, khas tor par jab se pair ne 1.3206 par close kiya hai, jo pichlay saal ke high 1.3131 se bhi upar hai.



Filhal, tawajjo is baat par hai ke aaj ka market kaise khulta hai. Agar trading 1.3206 ke neeche shuru hoti hai, toh Monday tak 1.3131 ki taraf decline ho sakta hai. Iske baraks, agar pair 1.3206 ke upar consolidate karta hai, toh yeh 33rd figure ki taraf push kar sakta hai, halanke mujhe yaqeen nahi hai ke yeh growth kis cheez ki waja se ho sakti hai. Price pichlay do hafton se lagataar barh rahi hai, kum se kum pullbacks ke sath, aur tezi se 1.3136 ke critical level ko paar kar gayi hai. Ab sirf thoda sa faasla baqi hai aglay target 1.3301 ko pohanchne ke liye. Monday ko Britain mein chhutti hai, toh mujhe umeed hai ke 1.3136 tak pullback hoga, uske baad hum shayad 1.3301 ka test dekhein. Jald hi dekhte hain ke trading shuru hone ke baad sab kuch kaise unfold hota hai — sab ko, khas tor par mujhe, achi qismat rahe. Zigzag indicators bhi is baat ki taseeq karte hain, sab mazeed upward movement ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain. Mojooda strength aur bulls ki activity ko dekhte huye, mein apni khuli position ko band karne ka plan kar raha hoon jab price 61.8% Fibonacci target par 1.32794 tak pohanch jaye.

Salam!

Jumay ko market ne taaqatwar upar ki taraf jhapat ki, lekin trading shuru hone ke baad khareedaar apni activity ko jari rakhne mein kamiyaab nahi ho paaye. Yeh mumkin hai ke UK mein chhutti ki waja se aaj sara din market sideways chalegi, aur kal upar ki taraf harkat jari rakhne ki koshish hogi. Is waqt tak, mazeed barhawa ke liye pehla target 1.32297 ka level hai. Aur agar khareedaar isay todhne aur consolidate karne mein kamiyaab ho jate hain, toh agla target 1.32986 ka hoga. Agar hum sales ke option par ghour karein, toh humein kisi bhi tarah ke reversal model ke banne ka intezaar karna hoga, lekin ab tak aisa koi model samne nahi aaya jisse hum wazeh tor par sales ki strategy ko support kar saken.

GBPUSD H4 Pair:

1. Pound ne 4-hour chart par bands ke central area ki taraf wapsi shuru ki hai. Aur humare liye ek naya high-quality signal hasil karne ke liye yeh behtar hoga ke hum upper band ki taraf dobara se approach ka intezaar karein, aur sirf uske baad yeh andaza lagayen ke bands bahar ki taraf khulenge ya koi reaction nahi hoga. Agar hum fractals ke zariye sochain, toh ek naya aur qareebi fractal upar ki taraf ban chuka hai, iska breakout aur consolidation is baat ki ijazat dega ke price 23 March, 2022 ke fractal 1.32986 ki taraf ja sake. Sabse qareebi fractal neeche ki taraf mojudah price values se kafi door hai. Aur humare liye price ke girne ki soorat mein kuch sahara hasil karne ke liye, naya aur qareebi fractal neeche ki taraf banne ka intezaar karna behtar hoga.

2. AO indicator musbat area mein zabardast taraqqi kar raha hai, aur ek naya maximum bhi form ho chuka hai. Yeh abhi tak wazeh nahi hai ke pehli peak kab form hogi, aur yeh batata hai ke price ka barhawa mazeed jari reh sakta hai. Price ke girne ke liye ek high-quality signal hasil karne ke liye, yeh behtar hoga ke hum zero mark ki taraf active attenuation ka intezaar karein.