جی بی پی/یو ایس ڈی: کرنسی کے تبادلے کی تازہ ترین معلومات

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

GBP/USD ki forecast: Agar sellers 1.3000 ka difa karen to Pound Sterling neeche correct ho sakta hai.

GBP/USD apne mid-July ke highest level par 1.3000 se upar trade kar raha hai. Short-term technical picture yeh dikhati hai ke yeh pair abhi overbought hai. Agar GBP/USD 1.3000 ke upar stabilize hone mein nakam hota hai, to yeh neeche correct ho sakta hai.

GBP/USD ne Monday ko teesre consecutive trading day mein positive territory mein close kiya aur Tuesday ke early hours mein apna stretch higher karte hue mid-July se apne highest level par 1.3000 se upar pohoncha. Near-term technical outlook yeh dikhata hai ke yeh pair short-term mein overbought hai.

Improving risk mood ne Monday ko US Dollar (USD) ke liye demand find karna mushkil bana diya aur GBP/USD ko previous week's gains par build karne ki ijazat di.

Tuesday ke early hours mein, US stock index futures marginally higher trade kar rahe hain. USD ke valuation ko impact karne ke liye high-tier macroeconomic data releases ki ghayabgi mein, risk perception GBP/USD ke action ko drive kar sakti hai. Agar Wall Street bullish opening dekhata hai, followed by another leg higher in major equity indexes, to yeh pair ko second half of the day mein apne position ko hold karne mein madad de sakti hai.

American session ke late hours mein, Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) President Raphael Bostic aur Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speeches denge. Magar yeh log policy outlook par comment karne ke imkaan mein nahi lagte. Wednesday ko, Fed apni July 30-31 monetary policy meeting ke minutes release karega.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

4-hour chart par Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator lagbhag 80 ke qareeb hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke GBP/USD abhi overbought conditions ko correct karna baaqi hai.



Agar GBP/USD 1.3000 se neeche retreat karta hai aur is level ko resistance ke tor par use karna shuru karta hai, to 1.2950 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the latest downtrend) ko agle support ke tor par dekha ja sakta hai, phir 1.2900 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, psychological level) tak girawat ho sakti hai. On the upside, 1.3045 (beginning point of the downtrend, July 17 high) agla resistance hai, phir 1.3100 (psychological level, static level) tak jaane ka imkaan hai.

Pound Sterling (GBP) duniya ka sabse purana currency unit hai (886 AD) aur United Kingdom ka official currency hai. Yeh duniya mein foreign exchange (FX) ka chautha sabse zyada traded unit hai, jo ke 12% saare transactions ka hissa hai, jo 2022 ke data ke mutabiq $630 billion per day ke qareeb hota hai. Iske key trading pairs hain GBP/USD, jise ‘Cable’ bhi kaha jata hai, jo FX ka 11% hissa hai, GBP/JPY, jise traders ‘Dragon’ kehte hain (3%), aur EUR/GBP (2%).

Pound Sterling ki value ko influence karne wala sabse important factor Bank of England ka monetary policy hai. BoE apne faislay is baat par base karta hai ke kya unho ne apna primary goal “price stability” achieve kiya hai ya nahi – jo ek steady inflation rate ke qareeb 2% ke aas paas hota hai. Is goal ko achieve karne ke liye BoE ka primary tool interest rates ko adjust karna hota hai. Jab inflation bohot zyada hota hai, to BoE usse control mein rakhne ke liye interest rates ko badhata hai, jis se log aur businesses ke liye credit lena mehnga ho jata hai. Yeh aam tor par GBP ke liye positive hota hai, kyun ke higher interest rates UK ko global investors ke liye ek zyada attractive jagah bana dete hain apna paisa invest karne ke liye.

Economic data releases jo economy ke health ko gauge karte hain, wo bhi Pound Sterling ki value ko impact kar sakte hain. Indicators jese GDP, Manufacturing aur Services PMIs, aur employment sabhi GBP ki direction ko influence kar sakte hain. Ek strong economy Sterling ke liye acha hota hai. Na sirf yeh zyada foreign investment ko attract karta hai, magar yeh BoE ko interest rates badhane ke liye encourage kar sakta hai, jo directly GBP ko strengthen karega. Warna, agar economic data weak hota hai, to Pound Sterling ke girne ke chances zyada hote hain.

Pound Sterling ke liye ek aur significant data release Trade Balance hota hai. Yeh indicator yeh measure karta hai ke ek country apne exports se kya kamata hai aur apne imports par kitna kharch karta hai ek given period mein. Agar ek country highly sought-after exports produce karta hai, to uska currency is extra demand ke zariye fayda uthata hai jo foreign buyers is goods ko kharidne ke liye create karte hain. Isliye, ek positive net Trade Balance ek currency ko strengthen karta hai aur negative balance ke liye ulta hota hai.

Pound ke buyers ne pichle 3 trading days main kaafi momentum hasil kar liya hai, aur lagbhag 180 points cover kiye hain. Ye mumkin hai ke bina kisi rollback ke bhi ye log current maximum 1.30436 tak pohanchne ki koshish karein. Agar ye is level ke breakout ke dauran actively consolidate karne main kamiyab ho gaye, to upward movement ka silsila 1.31417 tak jaari reh sakta hai. Abhi sales ke baare mein zyada baat karne ki zarurat nahi hai, kyunki ek upward trend develop ho raha hai. Agar levels pe focus karein, to sab se kareebi significant level 1.29392 hai. Is level ka breakout aur consolidation price ko 1.28808 ki taraf le ja sakta hai.

4-hour chart pe Pound central area of bands ki taraf rollback karne laga hai. Aur jab tak upper band outward khula hua hai, price growth ke liye ek naye high-quality signal hasil karne ke liye ye zaruri hai ke upper band ki taraf ek naya active approach dekha jaye, aur phir assess kiya jaye ke bands outward khulte hain ya nahi. Fractals ke hawale se agar baat karein, naye kareebi fractals up aur down form ho gaye hain. Kareebi fractal up ka breakout price ko 18 July ke fractal 1.30123 ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Fractal down ka breakout aur consolidation price ko 15 August ke fractal 1.27982 ki taraf le ja sakta hai.

AO indicator ne positive area main damping form karni shuru ki hai. Price drop ke liye ek strong signal hasil karne ke liye zaruri hai ke zero mark ki taraf zyada active movement dekha jaye. Agar positive area main increase dobara shuru hota hai, to quotes growth ke resumption ka ek strong signal mil sakta hai.

H4 timeframe pe ek descending correction ke asraat nazar aa rahe hain. Pehle, Fibonacci extension tool ko pehli wave pe lagane se yeh nazar aata hai ke 161.8% ka target reach ho chuka hai. Saath hi, agar pehli aur teesri wave ki size ko compare kiya jaye, to yeh lagbhag barabar hain, jo ke ek complete cycle ko indicate karta hai jiske baad chothi wave ya ek full reversal ka aghaz hota hai. Iske ilawa, CCI indicator pe bearish divergence bhi nazar aa rahi hai, jo ke ek potential sell-off ko signal kar rahi hai. Price pehle wali July ki high ko cross karne ki koshish kar rahi hai, lekin price ko further upar push karne se pehle ek chothi wave ki correction ko consider karna chahiye. Yeh bhi mumkin hai ke price pehle wali high tak bhi na pohanche, kyunki aise scenarios market main aam hain.

GBP/USD abhi bullish trend mein hai. Mahine ke shuruat mein ek significant decline ke baad, GBP/USD ne recovery ke signs dikhana shuru kiye hain aur ek strong aur consistent upward movement dekhi ja rahi hai. Yeh izafa kai supporting technical factors ki wajah se ho raha hai, jismein chart par ek strong support level bhi shamil hai jo ke blue zone se mark kiya gaya hai.
Chart par yeh dekha ja sakta hai ke price ne previous resistance level 1.28718 ke ird-gird break kiya hai, jo ab ek naya support ban chuka hai. Is breakout ke baad, price apni upward movement ko continue karti hui ek nayi high, lagbhag 1.2980 tak pohanchi. Magar, is level par pohanchne ke baad, price ne ek slight downward correction experience kiya, jo ke strong bullish trend mein ek normal baat hai.

Blue zone, jo ke 50% aur 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels ke darmiyan ka area hai, lagta hai ke yeh ek key area hai jo dekhne layak hai. Yeh area ek dynamic support ke tor par kaam kar raha hai, jahan se price apni upward movement ko continue karne se pehle confirmation hasil karne ki koshish karegi. Agar price is zone ke upar rehne mein kamiyab hoti hai aur enough buying momentum hasil kar leti hai, to yeh bohot zyada mumkin hai ke GBP/USD apne bullish trend ko continue karegi aur next resistance level, jo ke 1.2980 ke upar hai, ko break karne ki koshish karegi.

Magar agar price is zone ke upar rehne mein nakam hoti hai aur instead is zone ko todti hai, to yeh mumkin hai ke yeh pair lower support level 1.2815, jo ke 100% Fibonacci level hai, tak wapas aa sakti hai. Yeh scenario is baat ki indication de sakta hai ke current bullish trend weak hona shuru ho gaya hai aur ek price reversal mumkin hai.

Positive Sales data, jo ke strong consumer resilience ko indicate karti hai, ne DXY ko bolster kiya hai, aur yeh suggest karta hai ke second quarter ke liye economic outlook promising hai. Iski wajah se pair par downward pressure hai, jab tak traders UK consumer inflation data ke pivotal report ka intezar kar rahe hain taake apni subsequent strategic decisions ko guide kar sakein.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) report ke mutabiq, annual headline inflation 2.0% tak barh gayi hai, jabke core inflation, jo ke volatile food aur energy prices ko exclude karta hai, 3.5% tak barh gayi hai. Service sector ke andar inflation, jo ke Bank of England (BoE) ke liye ek persistent concern hai, sticky hai 5.7% par. Har mahine, headline inflation sirf 0.1% ke pace se barh rahi hai, jo ke May ke 0.3% ke muqable mein kam hai, lekin expectations ke mutabiq hai.

Agar price 1.3100 level ke upar pullback kar deti hai, to yeh ek deeper correction ki taraf le ja sakta hai, jahan traders recent cycle high ko dekh rahe hain. Yeh high, jo pehle support ke tor par kaam karta tha 1.2794 par, 8 March ko record kiya gaya tha. Potential further downside targets mein demand zone 1.3060 pe shamil hai, is se pehle ke yeh high 1.3103 tak drop kare.

Pair ka uptrend continue kar sakta hai agar Federal Reserve officials ek zyada dovish stance adopt karte hain, jo ke potential rate cut ka signal de sakta hai. Bullish momentum evident hai, jaisa ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) dikhata hai, jo ke overbought hone ke bawajood 70 ke upar hai, lekin yeh suggest karta hai ke bohot se traders 80 level ko is trend ka end samajhte hain.

GBP/USD pair ne haal hi mein interesting dynamics dikhayi hain, khaaskar hourly chart par. 50-day moving average (MA50) ke downward pressure ko break karne ke baad, ab yeh pair 100-day moving average (MA100) se potential resistance ka saamna kar raha hai. Yeh resistance kisi bhi short-term mein significant upward movement ko rok sakta hai, khaaskar jab ke stochastic indicator abhi bhi upward momentum dikhara hai.

Haalan ke current uptrend nazar arahi hai, lekin recent rally ka steep incline yeh suggest karta hai ke yeh momentum shayad sustainable na ho. Market filhal ek uncertainty ki state mein hai aur apni next move ko carefully weigh kar raha hai. Is situation ne ek complex trading environment create kar diya hai jahan yeh pair shayad thodi si southern correction undergo kare, us ke baad shayad apni upward trajectory resume kare. Key resistance level jo dekhne wali hai wo 1.2645 ke aas-paas hai, jo ke pair ke liye ek critical turning point ho sakta hai.

### GBP/USD ke liye Potential Scenarios

**1. Reversal aur Downward Movement:**

Pehli scenario yeh consider karna hai ke agar 1.2580 resistance level par ek reversal hoti hai. Agar is point par reversal candle form hoti hai, toh yeh market sentiment mein shift indicate kar sakta hai, jo shayad downward trend ki resumption ki taraf le jaye. Is scenario mein pair shayad lower support levels ko test kare, khaaskar agar current rally apna momentum sustain karne mein naakam hoti hai.

**2. Upward Movement ka Continuation:**

Dusri taraf, agar GBP/USD pair resistance level 1.2780 ko break karne mein kaamyaab ho jata hai, toh yeh bullish trend ke continuation ko confirm karega. Aisi move market ke pair ko further upward push karne ke liye ready hone ka signal de sakti hai. Is scenario mein, traders ko sustained buying pressure ko dekhna chahiye jo ke pair ko naye highs ki taraf drive kar sakta hai.

### Key Levels Jo Monitor Karni Chahiye

Kal ke price action par nazar daalain, toh pair ne apne kuch gains wapas de diye, jo suggest karta hai ke 1.2689 ke aas-paas resistance abhi bhi ek significant hurdle hai. Agar yeh level dobara test hota hai, toh yeh potential pullback ka sabab ban sakta hai. Lekin, 1.2600 ke aas-paas local Bollinger Band ke qareeb support bhi significant hai. Agar yeh pair is support level ke upar hold karne mein naakam hota hai aur is ke neeche break karta hai, toh market mein further downside potential nazar aa sakti hai, jahan targets lower rail 1.2705 ke aas-paas ho sakte hain.

### Conclusion

Haal ke market conditions ko dekhte hue, shayad wait-and-see approach apnaana behtar rahe. GBP/USD pair filhal ek crossroads par hai, jahan dono bullish aur bearish scenarios possible hain. Yeh zaroori hai ke market conditions ko closely monitor karain aur unke mutabiq apni strategies ko adapt karain. Key levels ko closely monitor karke, traders informed deClick image for larger version

Current Developments in GBP/USD Aaj hum GBP/USD currency pair ke price movements ka analysis karenge. GBP/USD abhi bhi upward trajectory par hai, lekin Friday ki growth kuch dheemi thi, aur traders session ke end ke qareeb zyada active hue. Mera target abhi bhi local swing high 1.3043 hai, jo ke four-hour chart analysis ke sath match karta hai. Lekin, price ko 1.2945 aur 1.2931 ke beech ek significant resistance zone ka samna hai. Agar price is level ko break karke iske upar hold karti hai, to yeh further growth ke liye raasta kholta hai. Phir bhi, mujhe lagta hai ke ek choti correction hone ki ummeed hai. Maine nearest liquidity zones identify kiye hain, khas kar 1.2919 aur 1.2872 ke aas paas, jahan main reversal patterns dekhne ke baad buy karna plan kar raha hoon. Stop-loss in areas ke neeche hoga. Main har scenario mein kam se kam 1:3 ka risk-to-reward ratio target kar raha hoon, jo ke in levels se ideal buy banaata hai. Halanke correction ki ummeed hai, technical indicators "active" buy phase ko signal kar rahe hain.GBP/USD pair mein koi activity nahi thi, pair 1.2855 ke upar freeze raha. Trend rebuild ho raha hai aur ek standard pattern follow kar raha hai. Neeche se, ek ascending channel ko hold karna zaroori hai. Ye aam taur par ek powerful attack ke baad breakdown hota hai jo FSL 66% of the pitchfork se hota hai. Is currency pair ka hourly chart dikhata hai ke bottom 1.2810 tak pohncha aur ek naya crest perfect tha. High - 1.2935 - ko update nahi kiya jayega kyunki hum ismein interested nahi hain. Iske natije mein, humne document ko pehle hi correct kar diya hai. Transaction ke successful hone ke liye, ek prominent seller zaroori hai.

Price Action Playbook: GBP/USD

Hamari guftagu GBP/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka jaiza lene ke silsile mein hai. Hal hi mein jo high hai, uska test foran nahi ho sakta, lekin mere nazdeek, ye sirf waqt ki baat hai. Primary trend abhi bhi bullish hai aur hume buyers ko follow karna chahiye. Lekin technical perspective se, daily chart ek reversal pattern bana raha hai jo pichle July ke pattern ke jaisa hai. Agar aaj ke din ke end par bulls positive close dete hain, toh hum kal se selling ki soch sakte hain. Aaj ke closing price se (yaani L-5 bar ki closing se) 100 points ka stop-loss rakhna achha rahega. Pichle mahine ka average gain around 300 points tha, lekin is baar hum sirf maximum 200 points tak hi target rakh sakte hain. Agar price 1.2734 tak girti hai, toh hume apni strategy badalni par sakti hai aur us level par buying consider karni chahiye.

**Hourly Chart Analysis: GBP/USD**

Hourly chart par, price abhi bhi ascending channel ke andar hai. Aaj, price is channel ki upper boundary par 1.2863 tak chadh gayi, uske baad reverse ho kar niche aayi. Lekin, decline ko zyada momentum nahi mila, aur pair ne briefly channel ki upper boundary ko breach kiya. Hourly chart ke mutabiq, bulls apni position ko maintain kar rahe hain aur apne influence ko barhane ki koshish kar rahe hain. Price abhi bhi 1/1 angle aur 25% support level 1.2914 ke upar hai, jo ke overall bullish trend ko intact dikhata hai, aur bearish market abhi bhi kamzor hai. EMA (21/5) aur MACD indicators ke mutabiq, buy signals hain lekin correction elements ke saath. Isliye, thodi consolidation ke baad, pair apni upward movement ko dobara shuru karni chahiye. Filhal, upar mentioned pattern ke mutabiq, technical pullback hone ki ummeed hai.

Pair ne ek notable rise dekha hai, jo ke pehli baar July 17 ke baad 1.3000 mark ko surpass kar gaya hai. Abhi 1.3011 par trading ho rahi hai, GBP/USD pair ne apni opening price se 0.36% ka izafa kiya hai, jo ke UK ke mixed inflation report ke baad hua. Latest update ke mutabiq, exchange rate 1.3006 ke aas-paas hai, jo currency ke recent gains ko reflect karta hai.

GBP/USD Ke Fundamentals:

Positive Sales data, jo strong consumer resilience ko indicate karta hai, ne DXY ko support diya hai, jo ke second quarter ke liye promising economic outlook suggest karta hai. Is wajah se, pair ko downward pressure ka samna hai jab traders pivotal UK consumer inflation data ka intezar kar rahe hain jo unke aage ke strategic decisions ko guide karega.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) report ke mutabiq, annual headline inflation 2.0% tak barh gayi hai, jabke core inflation, jo volatile food aur energy prices ko exclude karta hai, 3.5% tak pohnch gayi hai. Service sector mein inflation, jo Bank of England (BoE) ke liye ek persistent concern hai, 5.7% par sticky hai. Har mahine, headline inflation 0.1% ke slower pace se barh gayi hai, jo ke May mein 0.3% thi, jo ke expectations ke saath align karta hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Agar 1.3100 level ke upar pullback hota hai to yeh deeper correction ko lead kar sakta hai, traders recent cycle high ko observe kar rahe hain. Yeh high, jo pehle support ke tor par 1.2794 par act karta tha, 8 March ko record hui thi. Potential further downside targets mein 1.3060 par demand zone shamil hai, aur phir potentially 1.3103 ke high tak drop ho sakti hai.

Agar Federal Reserve officials ek zyada dovish stance apnaate hain, jo ke rate cut ka potential signal dega, to pair ki uptrend continue ho sakti hai. Bullish momentum clear hai, jo ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) se zahir hota hai. RSI, jo ke 70 se upar overbought zone mein hai, yeh suggest karta hai ke kaafi traders 80 level ko is trend ka end dekh rahe hain.

GBP/USD ka Technical Analysis
Pichlay trading week mein, Pound ne zabardast rally ki, aur apni pehli girawat ka zyada hissa wapas hasil kiya. Jab price ne pehlay din ke support 1.2667 par bounce kiya, to ye aglay level 1.2739 par hold karne mein kamiyab raha aur wahan se uptrend ko continue rakha. Is ke baad, quotes ko do martaba 1.2994 ke aas paas push kiya gaya. Is ka nateeja ye hua ke signal zone break hui aur mazeed declines ki umeedain khatam ho gayi. Price chart abhi bhi supertrend green zone mein hai, jo ke strong buying power ko zahir karta hai.

US Treasury yields Monday ko gir gayi, jis se dollar par asar pada. US Dollar ko rozgar data ki kharab surat-e-haal ke waja se pressure ka samna hai jo ke mahine ke pehle Friday ko release hui thi. US Dollar Index 101.96 points par aa gaya, jo pehle din ke close 102.46 points se kam tha. Index ne din mein 10,248 points ka high touch kiya tha aur 101.90 points ka low. Halankeh, baad mein United States ne kuch data release ki, jin mein retail sales figures bhi shamil hain.



Filhal GBP/USD pair bullish trade kar raha hai aur weekly highs par hai. Major resistance area ne price ko hold nahi kiya aur wo break ho gayi, jo ke ye indicate karta hai ke preferred vector ko upar move karna zaroori hai. Growth continue karne ke liye, price ko 1.2914 ke level ke upar consolidate karna hoga, jo ke filhal main support zone ke border par hai. Agar price is area ko retest karke wapas uptrend mein aata hai, to aage ka target area 1.3082 aur 1.3170 ke beech hoga.

Agar support break hoti hai aur price 1.2857 ke reversal level se neeche girti hai, to current scenario cancel ho jayega.

GBP/USD ke liye outlook
Assalam Alaikum! Pound/dollar ka joda aakhir kar 1.3000 ki kaledi satah se ooper pahunch gaya. Dilchasp bat yah hai keh taqriban do hafte pahle mere system ne 1.3024 ka hadaf dikhaya tha, jis reversal ki tawaqqo thi. Natije ke taur par, pound/dollar ka joda kal 1.3057 par pahunch gaya aur filhal 1.3027 par trade kar raha hai. Chunkeh koi tez pullback ya girawat nahin hui, lehaza aisa lagta hai keh kharidar ab bhi market me hain aur qimat badhne ka intezar kar rahe hain.
Aaj, pound/dollar ke jode ke liye support zone 1.2984 aur 1.2993 ke darmiyan hai. Mai is support zone me wapsi ki tawaqqo karta hun, jahan sab kuch wazeh ho jayega. Agar qimat 1.2984 se niche nahin girti hai to ooper ka rujhan jari rah sakta hai. Halankeh, mai aaj sirf 1.2984 se niche farokht ke scenario me dilchaspi rakhta hun, jiska hadaf 1.2912 aur us se kam hai.

Comprehensive analysis ki buniyad par trading
GBP/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Takniki nuqtah nazar se, mai tawaqqo karta hun keh pound/dollar ka joda 1.30418 ki maujudah muzahmati satah se wapas 1.29922 ki support satah par aa jayega. Iske bad, Bartanwi pound ke ooper ki taeaf wapas lautne aur oopri trendline aur 1.31202 ki muzahmati satah ki taraf badhne ka imkan hai, jahan se qimat ya to mandi ki taraf ja sakti hai ya musal tezi ki islah ke hisse ke taur par kuch faide ko badha sakti hai.

**GBP/USD Forex Technical Analysis**

British pound ne US dollar ke muqable mein ek ahem level tak pohnch gaya hai, global investor sentiment ke behtar hone ke saath. GBP/USD exchange rate ne Wednesday ko ek naya daily high 1.3052 par pohnch gaya, jo ek mahine se zyada ka highest hai. Yeh stock market ki global recovery ke beech mein hua hai, jahan US Federal Reserve ke rate cut ke expectations ne broader US dollar ko saat mahine ke low tak push kar diya hai.

Aane wale waqt mein GBP/USD ko jo risks face karne pad sakte hain, woh Federal Reserve ka annual Jackson Hole conference hai Kansas City mein, jahan Fed Chairman Powell Friday ko ek keynote speech denge. Analysts ka kehna hai ke woh shayad September mein 50 basis points rate cut ke recent speculation par dovish view lein, lekin overall message market participants ko yeh confirm karega ke policy rate cuts ab qareeb hain. Is tarah, USD short-term mein pressure mein reh sakta hai, lekin jitna Fed’s easing already discounted ho chuki hai, further USD weakness ka doubt hai.

Agar yeh assessment sahi sabit hoti hai, to GBP/USD ko jald hi 2024 ke highs ke qareeb 1.3130 ke aas-paas resistance face karna padh sakta hai.

Ek zyada benign market backdrop GBP ki future performance ko determine karne mein ahem role play karega, jo ensure karega ke kisi bhi pullback kaafi shallow hoga. Agar naya calm continue karta hai, to carry trade dobara ubhar sakta hai, aur crucially, carry trade ka return GBP ke liye supportive hoga, kyunki analysts ka kehna hai ke yeh 2024 ki outperformance ka main driver hai. Carrying mein investors low-interest-rate currency se borrow karke higher-interest-rate assets, jaise UK bonds mein invest karte hain. Yeh flows create karta hai jo GBP ko support karta hai.

**GBP/USD Forecast Aaj**

Daily chart ke performance ke mutabiq, GBP/USD price mein recent gains kuch technical indicators ko strong overbought levels tak push kar rahe hain. Agar USD ko US Federal Reserve ke aakhri meeting ke minutes ke announcement aur bank ke governor ke statements se strong momentum milta hai, to currency pair ko profit-taking ke liye strong selling operations ka saamna karna padh sakta hai. Main ab bhi har upward level se GBP/USD bechna pasand karta hoon, aur abhi ke sabse qareeb resistance levels hain 1.3085, 1.3120 aur 1.3200.

GBP/USD pair ne haal hi mein interesting dynamics dikhayi hain, khaaskar hourly chart par. 50-day moving average (MA50) ke downward pressure ko break karne ke baad, ab yeh pair 100-day moving average (MA100) se potential resistance ka saamna kar raha hai. Yeh resistance kisi bhi short-term mein significant upward movement ko rok sakta hai, khaaskar jab ke stochastic indicator abhi bhi upward momentum dikhara hai.

Haalan ke current uptrend nazar arahi hai, lekin recent rally ka steep incline yeh suggest karta hai ke yeh momentum shayad sustainable na ho. Market filhal ek uncertainty ki state mein hai aur apni next move ko carefully weigh kar raha hai. Is situation ne ek complex trading environment create kar diya hai jahan yeh pair shayad thodi si southern correction undergo kare, us ke baad shayad apni upward trajectory resume kare. Key resistance level jo dekhne wali hai wo 1.2645 ke aas-paas hai, jo ke pair ke liye ek critical turning point ho sakta hai.

### GBP/USD ke liye Potential Scenarios

**1. Reversal aur Downward Movement:**

Pehli scenario yeh consider karna hai ke agar 1.2580 resistance level par ek reversal hoti hai. Agar is point par reversal candle form hoti hai, toh yeh market sentiment mein shift indicate kar sakta hai, jo shayad downward trend ki resumption ki taraf le jaye. Is scenario mein pair shayad lower support levels ko test kare, khaaskar agar current rally apna momentum sustain karne mein naakam hoti hai.

**2. Upward Movement ka Continuation:**

Dusri taraf, agar GBP/USD pair resistance level 1.2780 ko break karne mein kaamyaab ho jata hai, toh yeh bullish trend ke continuation ko confirm karega. Aisi move market ke pair ko further upward push karne ke liye ready hone ka signal de sakti hai. Is scenario mein, traders ko sustained buying pressure ko dekhna chahiye jo ke pair ko naye highs ki taraf drive kar sakta hai.

### Key Levels Jo Monitor Karni Chahiye

Kal ke price action par nazar daalain, toh pair ne apne kuch gains wapas de diye, jo suggest karta hai ke 1.2689 ke aas-paas resistance abhi bhi ek significant hurdle hai. Agar yeh level dobara test hota hai, toh yeh potential pullback ka sabab ban sakta hai. Lekin, 1.2600 ke aas-paas local Bollinger Band ke qareeb support bhi significant hai. Agar yeh pair is support level ke upar hold karne mein naakam hota hai aur is ke neeche break karta hai, toh market mein further downside potential nazar aa sakti hai, jahan targets lower rail 1.2705 ke aas-paas ho sakte hain.

### Conclusion

Haal ke market conditions ko dekhte hue, shayad wait-and-see approach apnaana behtar rahe. GBP/USD pair filhal ek crossroads par hai, jahan dono bullish aur bearish scenarios possible hain. Yeh zaroori hai ke market conditions ko closely monitor karain aur unke mutabiq apni

اگست 21 2024 کو برطانوی پاؤنڈ/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

برطانوی پاؤنڈ توقع سے زیادہ تیزی سے بڑھ رہا ہے۔ 1.3080 کے ہدف کی سطح تک صرف 70 پِپس باقی ہیں، اور روزانہ چارٹ پر مارلن آسکیلیٹر نے ابھی 0.0198 کی افقی سطح تک پہنچنا ہے۔



اگر قیمت ہدف کی سطح سے ٹکرا جاتی ہے اور مارلن اس کی مزاحمت کو چھوتی ہے اور پلٹ جاتی ہے، تو اسے بھی انحراف سمجھا جائے گا۔ تاہم، کل 17 جولائی کی قیمت کی چوٹی سے تجاوز کرنے کے بعد سے ایک فرق پہلے سے ہی موجود ہے۔ یہ پاؤنڈ کے لیے درمیانی مدت کی ممکنہ کمی کی طرف بڑھ رہا ہے۔ جیکسن ہول سمپوزیم میں جیروم پاول کی جمعہ کی تقریر سے اس کا محرک ہوسکتا ہے۔ ہمیں یقین ہے کہ فیڈرل ریزرو کی کرسی شرح میں کمی کی تیز رفتاری کے لیے مارکیٹ کی توقعات پر قابو پالے گی۔

٤- گھنٹے کے چارٹ میں، مارلن آسک-یلیٹر میں شاذ و نادر ہی کمی واقع ہوتی ہے، جبکہ قیمت میں 2.5 اعداد و شمار کا اضافہ ہوتا ہے جبکہ اس سے پہلے پیدا کردہ ڈائیورجن کو برقرار رکھا گیا تھا۔ قیمت موجودہ سطحوں سے نیچے کی طرف 1.2760 کی طرف یا 1.3080 پر مزاحمت کی طرف پلٹ سکتی ہے۔ اگر قیمت 1.3080 سے اوپر جاتی ہے تو 1.3160 کا ہدف ایک مضبوط مختصر مدتی حرکت کے ساتھ حاصل کیا جا سکتا ہے۔



تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The Pound surges on US Dollar Weakness

GBP/USD ne pichle hafte ke 200-day SMA aur 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level se rebound continue rakha jo ke 1.2300 se 1.3045 tak ke up leg ka tha 1.2670 par, lekin aaj kuch kamzori dikh rahi hai. Intraday bias neutral se negative lag raha hai, kyun ke stochastic abhi bhi 80 level se upar hai lekin kuch steam lose kar raha hai, jabke RSI, jo 50 se upar hai, neeche ki taraf jaane ki koshish kar raha hai.

Agar pair ooper jane mein kamiyab hota hai, to ek saal ka high 1.3045 par steeper bullish action ke liye ek trigger point ka kaam kar sakta hai. Is se upar, cable 1.3140 level tak jaa sakta hai, jo pichle saal se ek strong barrier hai.

Lekin agar pair downside ki taraf reverse karta hai, to investors pehle 23.6% Fibonacci ke 1.2870 par move kar sakte hain, phir 20-day aur 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) ke 1.2825 aur 1.2800 par. Agar price aur neeche girti hai, to support 1.2760 ke uptrend line aur 38.2% Fibonacci ke beech kahi aa sakta hai.

Medium-term picture mein, 1.2300 se bounce hone ke baad outlook neutral se bullish ho gaya hai. 200-day SMA ke upar jane ke sath bullish move ke chances ab bhi barh rahe hain.

Fundamental Overview

UK government finances data ne July mein significantly zyada borrowing requirement show ki (GBP19.2bn) lekin is data ka GBP ke performance par koi asar nahi hua. Near-term direction USD ke jobs data revisions, FOMC minutes, aur Powell ke Jackson Hole comments Friday par depend karegi.

GBP firm hai, kal ke peak ke neeche jo mid-2023 se Cable ka sabse high print tha. Trend momentum signals intraday aur daily DMIs par bullishly aligned hain aur is move ko develop hone aur GBP ko 1.3150 par track par rakhne ke liye jagah dete hain. Mid/upper 1.29s par dips support attract karenge.

USD ab bhi pressure mein hai positive risk sentiment aur Fed ke imminent rate cuts ke chalte jo global growth mein madadgar sabit honge. Yeh aam tor par greenback ke liye bearish drivers hain.

Haqeeqat yeh hai ke GBP ki appreciation zyada tar US Dollar ke side se driven hai. Market yeh dekh raha hai ke September mein BoE ke rates ko steady rakhne ka 64% probability hai aur phir saal ke end tak kam az kam do rate cuts deliver karega.

Focus kal ke Flash PMIs aur phir Friday ko Fed Chair Powell ke Jackson Hole Symposium speech par hoga.

Technical Chart Analysis

Daily chart par dekha ja sakta hai ke GBPUSD 1.3043 level tak rally kiya jabke key resistance zone 1.29 handle ke aas paas break hua. Ye woh jagah hai jahan hum expect karte hain ke sellers step in karen ge aur level ke upar ek defined risk ke sath position lenge, taki wapas 1.29 handle mein drop ho sake. Buyers, doosri taraf, yeh dekhna chahenge ke price higher break kare taki bullish bets ko 1.3140 level tak barhaya ja sake.

4-hour chart par dekha ja sakta hai ke agar hum ek pullback dekhen, to buyers upward trendline ke 1.2920 level par lean karenge, jahan hum 50% Fibonacci retracement level ko bhi confluence ke liye pa sakte hain. Sellers, doosri taraf, yeh dekhna chahenge ke price lower break kare taki bearish bets ko naye lows par barhaya ja sake.

1-hour chart par dekha ja sakta hai ke humare paas ek minor support zone 1.30 handle ke aas paas hai. Hum expect karte hain ke buyers is par lean karenge ek defined risk ke sath iske neeche naye highs ke liye position lene ke liye, jabke sellers yeh dekhna chahenge ke price lower break kare taki bearish bets trendline par barhaya ja sake. Lal lines aaj ke liye average daily range ko define karte hain.

British Pound aur US Dollar ke darmiyan GBP/USD exchange rate Wednesday ko 1.3052 tak pohnch gaya, jo ke aik mahine se ziada ka highest level hai. Ye growth global stock market recovery ke demand pe base hai, jahan US Federal Reserve ke rate cut ki umeed se dollar pressure mein hai.

Aane wale dinon mein GBP/USD ke liye risk Federal Reserve ka Jackson Hole conference hai, jahan Fed Chairman Powell apna keynote speech denge. Analysts ka maanna hai ke woh 50 basis points rate cut par dovish nazar rakh sakte hain, magar overall message market participants ko reassure karega ke rate cuts nazdeek hain. Is wajeh se USD near-term mein pressure mein reh sakta hai. Agar yeh assessment sahi sabit hoti hai, to GBP/USD resistance face kar sakta hai near 1.3130.

Agar market calm rehta hai, to carry trade wapas aa sakta hai jo GBP ke liye supportive hoga. Investors low-interest-rate currency se borrow karke high-interest-rate assets mein invest karte hain, jese ke UK bonds, jo GBP ko support karta hai.

GBP/USD Forecast Today:

Daily chart ke mutabiq, GBP/USD price ke recent gains technical indicators ko overbought levels tak push kar rahe hain. Agar USD Federal Reserve ke aaj ke announcement ya bank governor ke statements se momentum gain karta hai, to currency pair mein strong selling dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Ab bhi main har upward level se GBP/USD sell karne ka mashwara dunga, jahan closest resistance levels 1.3085, 1.3120, aur 1.3200 hain.