Eur/gbp

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

EUR/GBP nai 0.8500 ke neeche naye do haftay ke low ko chhua, kai challenges ka samna

EUR/GBP pair 0.8500 ke neeche test kar raha hai jab Eurozone ke Q2 Negotiated Wage Rates ke soft honay ke baad Euro Sterling ke muqable mein kamzor ho raha hai. ECB se September mein dobara interest rates cut karne ki umeed hai. Pound Sterling UK ke August ke flash PMI ke achi report ke baad mazid taqat hasil kar raha hai.

EUR/GBP pair Thursday ke North American session mein takriban teen hafta ke naye low 0.8480 ke qareeb post kar raha hai. Cross weaken hota hai jab Euro Pound Sterling ke muqable mein underperform kar raha hai, aur Q2 Negotiated Wage Rates ke kam hone ke baad European Central Bank (ECB) ke rate cuts ki umeed mazid barh gayi hai jo September mein expected hai.



ECB ne June mein apni policy-easing ka aghaz kiya tha, aur July mein ek pause ke baad September mein dobara apne key borrowing rates cut karne ki umeed hai. Thursday ke European trading hours mein data aaya ke Negotiated Wage Rates iss saal ke pehle quarter ke 4.74% se 3.55% ki slower pace par barhe, jo ke inflation ke dawam ko lehaz mein rakhtay huay concerns ko kam karta hai.

ING ke economists ne Thursday ko ek note mein kaha, "European Central Bank ko interest rates cut karne mein ab bhi takleef hai jab tak wage growth elevated hai."

Isi ke sath Eurozone ke August ke upbeat flash HCOB Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data ne Euro (EUR) ko mazid taqat nahi di. Preliminary report ne dikhaya ke Composite PMI unexpected tor par 51.2 tak barh gaya. Economists ne yeh project kiya tha ke overall activity mushkil se barhegi. Eurozone economy mein strong growth ziada tar France mein Olympics games ke doran hui business activity se aayi, jab ke Eurozone ki bari economy, Germany, mein PMI ziada tezi se contract kar rahi hai.

Doosri taraf, Pound Sterling (GBP) apne major peers ke muqable mein strong perform kar raha hai UK ke August ke flash S&P Global/CIPS PMI data ke baad jo economic outlook ko mazid mazboot banata hai. Composite PMI ne ek tezi se pace mein expand kiya, jo manufacturing aur service sector donon mein sharp increase ki wajah se hua.

Overall business activity mein ye tezi Bank of England (BoE) ke August 1 ko kiye gaye interest rate cut ka nateeja lagti hai. BoE se umeed hai ke is saal ke last quarter mein ek aur rate cut karega.

GBP Aspects

Pound Sterling (GBP) Thursday ke early New York session mein US Dollar (USD) ke muqable mein 1.3130 ke qareeb jump kar gaya. GBP/USD pair Thursday ko apni winning streak ko chhata trading session tak barhata hai jab ke flash United Kingdom (UK) ke August S&P Global/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report ne dikhaya ke overall economic activities tezi se expand hui. Composite PMI 53.4 peh aya jo expectations ke 52.9 aur pehle ke 52.8 se zyada tha, jo ke manufacturing aur service sector donon mein robust expansion ki wajah se hua.

Flash PMI data par comment karte huay, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence ne kaha, "August mein stronger economic growth, improved job creation aur lower inflation ka combination dekhne ko mil raha hai, jo ke provisional PMI survey data ke mutabiq hai." Williamson ne mazid kaha, "Manufacturing aur service sectors donon mein solid output growth aur increased job gains dekhne ko mil rahe hain jab ke business confidence ab bhi historical standards ke mutabiq elevated hai."

Upbeat flash UK PMI data ne British currency ka outlook improve kar diya hai kyun ke yeh Bank of England ke September mein interest rate cuts ke market expectations par asar dal sakta hai, jo ke service sector mein July ke inflationary pressures mein tezi se girawat ke baad aya tha.

Reuters ke ek poll ke mutabiq, BoE se umeed hai ke November mein ek aur interest rate cut karega, kyun ke inflation ab bhi bank ke target 2% ke upar rehne ki umeed hai. Rabobank ke analysts ne ek note mein kaha: "Hum dekh rahe hain ke headline inflation year-end tak 2.75%-3.00% ke darmiyan pohanchne ki umeed hai."

Is haftay, Pound Sterling ke liye major trigger BoE ke Governor Andrew Bailey ka JH Symposium mein Friday ko hone wala speech hoga. Andrew Bailey shayad is baat par rehnumai karein ke kya BoE dobara September mein interest rates cut karega. Investors wage growth aur service inflation ke outlook par clues bhi talash karenge.

Pound Sterling US Dollar ke muqable mein outperform kar raha hai jab ke badhte huay speculation ke sath Federal Reserve (Fed) apne September ke meeting se interest rates reduce karna shuru karega. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ki value ko chay bari currencies ke muqable mein track karta hai, 101.00 ke qareeb hover kar raha hai, jo is saal ka sabse lowest level hai.

Investors ke confidence mein izafa hua hai ke Fed policy normalization ki taraf shift karega jab ke Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ke July 30-31 meeting ke minutes ne dikhaya ke kuch policymakers ne already us waqt borrowing rates cut karne ka suggestion diya tha. Phir bhi, “vast majority” officials ne kaha ke "agar data expected mutabiq aata raha, to agle meeting mein policy ko ease karna munasib hoga," minutes ke mutabiq.

Isi dauran, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) mein March 2024 tak ki downward revision ne potential recession ka khauf doobara zinda kar diya aur traders ne September mein 50-basis-points (bps) interest-rate reduction ki bet ko barha diya. US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ne report kiya ke total employees ki tadad pichlay estimate se 818K kam thi, jisne sizeable interest rate cut ke expectations ko mazid barha diya.

Ab investors ka focus Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium par shift ho raha hai, jo 14:00 GMT par shuru hoga aur August 24 tak chalega. Highlight Fed Chair Jerome Powell ka Friday ko hone wala speech hoga. Investors September mein hone wale interest rate cuts ke potential size ke hawalay se naye clues talash karenge. Thursday ke session mein, investors ka focus US S&P Global PMI data par hoga jo ke August ke liye 13:45 GMT par publish hoga.

Pound Sterling US Dollar ke muqable mein year-to-date high 1.3050 par post kar raha hai. GBP/USD pair ek Rising Channel chart pattern mein upar move kar raha hai jahan har pullback ko market participants ek buying opportunity ke tor par dekh rahe hain. Upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) lagbhag 1.2875 ke qareeb yeh suggest karta hai ke near-term trend bullish hai.

14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish range 60.00-80.00 mein oscillate kar raha hai, jo ke strong upside momentum ko suggest karta hai. Phir bhi, yeh overbought levels tak pohanch gaya hai lagbhag 70.00 par, jo corrective pullback ke chances ko barha deta hai. Upside par, 1.3140 ke do-saal ke high par Pound Sterling bulls ke liye key resistance zone hoga.

EUR Fundamental Aspects

Euro 20 European Union countries ke liye currency hai jo Eurozone ka hissa hain. Yeh duniya ki doosri sabse heavily traded currency hai US Dollar ke baad. 2022 mein, yeh sab foreign exchange transactions ka 31% tha, aur iska average daily turnover $2.2 trillion se zyada tha. EUR/USD duniya ka sabse heavily traded currency pair hai, jo sab transactions ka takreeban 30% hai, is ke baad EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) aur EUR/AUD (2%) hain.

European Central Bank (ECB) Frankfurt, Germany mein Eurozone ke liye reserve bank hai. ECB interest rates set karta hai aur monetary policy ko manage karta hai. ECB ka primary mandate price stability ko maintain karna hai, jo ya to inflation ko control karna ya growth ko stimulate karna hota hai. Iska primary tool interest rates ko barhane ya kam karne ka hota hai. Relatively high interest rates – ya higher rates ki umeed – usually Euro ke liye beneficial hoti hai aur vice versa. ECB Governing Council monetary policy decisions meetings mein lete hain jo saal mein aath dafa hoti hain. Decisions Eurozone ke national banks ke heads aur chay permanent members, including ECB President, Christine Lagarde, karte hain.

Eurozone inflation data, jo Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) se measure hota hai, Euro ke liye ek important econometric hai. Agar inflation expected se zyada barhti hai, khaaskar agar yeh ECB ke 2% target se upar ho, to ECB ko interest rates barhane par majboor karti hai taake isay control mein rakha ja sake. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts usually Euro ke liye faidamand hotay hain, kyun ke yeh region ko global investors ke liye apna paisa rakhne ke liye zyada attractive banata hai.

Data releases economy ki sehat ko gauge karte hain aur Euro par asar dal sakte hain. GDP, Manufacturing aur Services PMIs, employment, aur consumer sentiment surveys jaise indicators currency ki direction ko influence kar sakte hain. Ek strong economy Euro ke liye acha hota hai. Na sirf yeh zyada foreign investment ko attract kar sakta hai balke ECB ko interest rates barhane par encourage kar sakta hai, jo directly Euro ko mazboot karega. Warna, agar economic data kamzor hota hai, to Euro ke girne ke chances hotay hain. Euro area ki char badi economies (Germany, France, Italy aur Spain) ke liye economic data khaaskar significant hota hai, kyun ke yeh Eurozone ke economy ka 75% banti hain.

Euro ke liye ek aur significant data release Trade Balance hai. Yeh indicator kisi country ke exports se kamayi hui earning aur imports par kharchi gayi raqam ke darmiyan difference ko measure karta hai kisi bhi given period ke liye. Agar ek country highly sought-after exports produce karti hai to iski currency ki value barh sakti hai purely foreign buyers ke demand se jo yeh goods khareedna chahte hain. Isliye, ek positive net Trade Balance currency ko mazboot banata hai aur negative balance ke liye vice versa.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

BoE ke Bailey ke speech se pehle EUR/GBP 0.8500 se neeche chala gaya

EUR/GBP Friday ke subha Europe session mein 0.8485 ke qareeb negative territory mein trade kar raha hai. UK ka pehli August PMI data ummedon se behtar tha, jis ne BoE rate cut ki ummeedon ko wapas kar diya. Sarif investers is saal European Central Bank (ECB) se do aur rate cuts ki tawaku rakhte hain.

EUR/GBP cross Friday ke subha European trading hours ke doran apni decline ko 0.8485 ke qareeb barqarar rakhta hai. Bank of England (BoE) ka September mein interest rate cut karne ke liye kam bet ka imkaan, Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reports ke behtreen results ke baad Pound Sterling (GBP) ko kuch support faraham karta hai aur cross ko neeche le aata hai. Aaj (Friday) BoE Governor Andrew Bailey ka speech ghor se dekha jayega.

UK mein business activity ne char maheenon mein apni sab se mazboot growth dikhai, saath hi mein price pressures kam hue, ek survey ke mutabiq jo Thursday ko samne aya. S&P Global ka Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) August mein 53.4 par pohanch gaya, jo ke pichlay maheenay mein 52.8 par tha. Yeh figure thoda zyada tha ummedon se, jo ke 52.9 thi. Is hosla afza report ne investors ki BoE interest rate cut ki bet ko aglay maheenay ke liye kam kar diya, jis ne GBP ko Euro (EUR) ke muqable mein mazboot kiya. Financial markets ab BoE September rate cut ke liye 30% se kam imkaan de rahi hain Thursday ke PMI data ke baad.

Euro ki taraf se, European Central Bank (ECB) ne apne July meeting mein interest rates ko nahi badla, aur apni recent meeting ke minutes ke mutabiq is saal ke akhir mein rate cut ka imkaan dia. Investors ne September mein deposit rate ko 3.5% par 25 basis points (bps) cut hone ke 90% odds ke sath price in kar liya hai, aur is saal ke khatam hone se pehle ek aur cut ki bhi umeed hai. Yeh, apni jaga Euro par bohot asar dalta hai.

ECB Governing Council ke member Martins Kazaks ne kaha ke woh September ke meeting mein ek aur interest rate cut par behas karne ke liye tayar hain, unhoon ne inflation ke 2% par wapas ane ka yaqeen dilaya aur economy ke baray mein fikr ka izhar kiya.

GBP Fundamental Analysis

Pound Sterling (GBP) duniya ki sab se purani currency hai (886 AD) aur United Kingdom ki official currency hai. Yeh duniya mein chothi sab se zyada traded unit hai foreign exchange (FX) ke liye, jo ke tamam transactions ka 12% hai, jo ke 2022 ke data ke mutabiq har din $630 billion ka averaging hai. Is ke key trading pairs hain GBP/USD, jo ke ‘Cable’ ke naam se mashhoor hai, jo FX ka 11% hai, GBP/JPY, jo ke ‘Dragon’ ke naam se traders mein jana jata hai (3%), aur EUR/GBP (2%). Pound Sterling ko Bank of England (BoE) issue karta hai.

Pound Sterling ki value par sab se zyada asar dalnay wala aik factor monetary policy hai jo Bank of England (BoE) decide karta hai. BoE apne faislay is baat par mabsar karta hai ke kya us ne apna primary goal “price stability” hasil kiya hai ya nahi – yani ke steady inflation rate jo ke kareeb 2% ho. BoE ka primary tool is ko hasil karne ke liye interest rates ka adjustment hai. Jab inflation bohot zyada hoti hai, toh BoE is ko control mein lane ke liye interest rates ko barhata hai, jis se logon aur businesses ke liye credit lena mehnga ho jata hai. Yeh aam tor par GBP ke liye positive hota hai, kyun ke zyada interest rates UK ko global investors ke liye aik zyada attractive jaga bana deti hai apna paisa park karne ke liye. Jab inflation bohot kam hoti hai, yeh is baat ka ishara hota hai ke economic growth slow ho rahi hai. Is surat mein, BoE interest rates ko kam karne ka sochta hai taake credit sasta ho jaye aur businesses growth-generating projects mein invest karne ke liye zyada borrow karen.

Data releases economy ki sehat ka andaza lagati hain aur Pound Sterling ki value par asar dal sakti hain. Indicators jaise ke GDP, Manufacturing aur Services PMIs, aur employment GBP ki direction ko asar dal sakte hain. Ek strong economy Sterling ke liye acha hota hai. Na sirf yeh zyada foreign investment attract karta hai, balki yeh BoE ko interest rates barhane ke liye majboor kar sakta hai, jo ke seedha GBP ko mazboot karega. Wagarna, agar economic data weak ho, toh Pound Sterling ke girne ke imkaanat hain.

Ek aur ahem data release jo Pound Sterling ke liye significant hoti hai woh Trade Balance hai. Yeh indicator is baat ko measure karta hai ke aik mulk apne exports se kitna kamata hai aur imports par kitna kharch karta hai kisi diye gaye period ke dauran. Agar aik mulk highly sought-after exports produce karta hai, toh iski currency ko faida hota hai purely us extra demand se jo ke foreign buyers ke taraf se hoti hai in goods ko kharidne ke liye. Isliye, aik positive net Trade Balance currency ko mazboot karta hai aur negative balance is ke baraks asar dalta hai.

Technical View

EUR/GBP mein intraday bias downside par barqarar hai jab ke girawat 0.8624 se jaari hai. 61.8% retracement ka firm break 0.8382 se 0.8624 tak 0.8474 par yeh keh raha hai ke recent downtrend dobara shuru hone ke liye tayar hai jo ke 0.8382 low se bhi neeche jayega. Abhi ke liye, risk downside par hi rahega jab tak 0.8543 ka minor resistance barqarar hai, kisi bhi recovery ki surat mein.



Jab ke 0.8382 se rebound mazboot hai, abhi tak trend reversal ki tasdeeq nahi hui hai. Jab tak 0.8643 resistance barqarar hai, downtrend 0.9267 se dobara shuru ho sakta hai 0.8382 par kisi aglay marhalay mein. Magar, agar 0.8643 ka firm break hota hai toh yeh is baat ki nishani hogi ke downtrend khatam ho gaya hai, aur outlook bullish ho jaye ga 0.8764 resistance ke liye aglay.

Monday ke trading main, EUR/GBP market ki situation kuch khaas nahi thi, is liye trading recommend nahi ki gayi kyun ke movement sirf limited space main hui. H1 time frame pe dikhaya gaya, jahan price Asian session main flat move hui, is haftay ke weekly open ke aas paas 0.8425 pe. European session ke agay, sellers aaye jo sirf thoda sa pressure provide kar sake aur price gira kar weekly open ke neeche EMA 200 H1 ko cross karne ki koshish ki. Unfortunately, sellers ka defense sirf chand waqt ka tha, price wapas upar aaya jab 0.8412 ko touch kiya. Price aahista aahista upar move hui aur EMA 200 H1 ko cross kar gaya, is se penetration confirm nahi hui aur price wapas weekly open area main aa gayi. Lagta hai buyers ki ability bhi limited hai, 0.8425 area ko reach karne ke baad, price halka sa weak hui aur EMA 200 ke aas paas end hui, market closing figure 0.8419 pe. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 signal support provide nahi kar sakte kyun ke jo crossing hui thi wo perfect nahi thi. Ab dono EMAs tapering aur flat dikh rahe hain. Aaj ki trading conditions bhi kuch khaas changes nahi dikhati. Price movements kal ki tarah hain. Market subah ko 0.8417 pe open hui. Price daily open aur is ke kareebi upper resistance jo ke 0.8525 hai, ke darmiyan move hui. Ye area abhi tak resistance hai jo buyers ko prices push karne se rok raha hai. Price movement ka room narrow hota ja raha hai, lekin ye bhi ek acha mauka ho sakta hai next price flow ke nayi direction ka wait karne ke liye. Daily time frame mein price movements ke graphical conditions dekhte hue, kal price 0.8424 ke upper daily resistance ke upar move karne mein fail hui. Ye area Friday ko bhi positive price movement ko rokne wala area bana. Bullishness ko rokne ki wajah se price ko finally sellers se pressure mila aur negative price movement hui jo sirf Friday ke low price 0.8412 ke aas paas shift karne mein kamiyab hui, is umeed ke saath ke price daily support level 0.8405 tak move kar payegi.
Kal ke trading ke doran, price ne highs aur lows 0.8430 aur 0.8412 pe form kiye aur daily pe bearish candle banayi jaise ke buyers ke attempts ko rokne ke liye jo ke Friday ko eurgbp market mein movement se daily bullish candle create karne mein kamiyab hue the . Aaj ke trading mein, price upar move karne ki koshish kar rahi thi 0.8424 area ko test karne ke liye, lekin seller pressure wapas aagaya aur abhi jo European session mein monitor kiya gaya ke price neeche move ho rahi thi. Usi waqt, daily Stochastic level 80 tak pohnch gaya aur iska line neeche curve ho raha tha jo sellers ke strength ko indicate karta hai jo enter karne ki koshish kar rahe hain

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!
EUR/GBP nai 0.8500 ke neeche naye do haftay ke low ko chhua, kai challenges ka samna

EUR/GBP pair 0.8500 ke neeche test kar raha hai jab Eurozone ke Q2 Negotiated Wage Rates ke soft honay ke baad Euro Sterling ke muqable mein kamzor ho raha hai. ECB se September mein dobara interest rates cut karne ki umeed hai. Pound Sterling UK ke August ke flash PMI ke achi report ke baad mazid taqat hasil kar raha hai.

EUR/GBP pair Thursday ke North American session mein takriban teen hafta ke naye low 0.8480 ke qareeb post kar raha hai. Cross weaken hota hai jab Euro Pound Sterling ke muqable mein underperform kar raha hai, aur Q2 Negotiated Wage Rates ke kam hone ke baad European Central Bank (ECB) ke rate cuts ki umeed mazid barh gayi hai jo September mein expected hai.

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ECB ne June mein apni policy-easing ka aghaz kiya tha, aur July mein ek pause ke baad September mein dobara apne key borrowing rates cut karne ki umeed hai. Thursday ke European trading hours mein data aaya ke Negotiated Wage Rates iss saal ke pehle quarter ke 4.74% se 3.55% ki slower pace par barhe, jo ke inflation ke dawam ko lehaz mein rakhtay huay concerns ko kam karta hai.

ING ke economists ne Thursday ko ek note mein kaha, "European Central Bank ko interest rates cut karne mein ab bhi takleef hai jab tak wage growth elevated hai."

Isi ke sath Eurozone ke August ke upbeat flash HCOB Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data ne Euro (EUR) ko mazid taqat nahi di. Preliminary report ne dikhaya ke Composite PMI unexpected tor par 51.2 tak barh gaya. Economists ne yeh project kiya tha ke overall activity mushkil se barhegi. Eurozone economy mein strong growth ziada tar France mein Olympics games ke doran hui business activity se aayi, jab ke Eurozone ki bari economy, Germany, mein PMI ziada tezi se contract kar rahi hai.

Doosri taraf, Pound Sterling (GBP) apne major peers ke muqable mein strong perform kar raha hai UK ke August ke flash S&P Global/CIPS PMI data ke baad jo economic outlook ko mazid mazboot banata hai. Composite PMI ne ek tezi se pace mein expand kiya, jo manufacturing aur service sector donon mein sharp increase ki wajah se hua.

Overall business activity mein ye tezi Bank of England (BoE) ke August 1 ko kiye gaye interest rate cut ka nateeja lagti hai. BoE se umeed hai ke is saal ke last quarter mein ek aur rate cut karega.

GBP Aspects
Pound Sterling (GBP) Thursday ke early New York session mein US Dollar (USD) ke muqable mein 1.3130 ke qareeb jump kar gaya. GBP/USD pair Thursday ko apni winning streak ko chhata trading session tak barhata hai jab ke flash United Kingdom (UK) ke August S&P Global/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report ne dikhaya ke overall economic activities tezi se expand hui. Composite PMI 53.4 peh aya jo expectations ke 52.9 aur pehle ke 52.8 se zyada tha, jo ke manufacturing aur service sector donon mein robust expansion ki wajah se hua.

Flash PMI data par comment karte huay, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence ne kaha, "August mein stronger economic growth, improved job creation aur lower inflation ka combination dekhne ko mil raha hai, jo ke provisional PMI survey data ke mutabiq hai." Williamson ne mazid kaha, "Manufacturing aur service sectors donon mein solid output growth aur increased job gains dekhne ko mil rahe hain jab ke business confidence ab bhi historical standards ke mutabiq elevated hai."

Upbeat flash UK PMI data ne British currency ka outlook improve kar diya hai kyun ke yeh Bank of England ke September mein interest rate cuts ke market expectations par asar dal sakta hai, jo ke service sector mein July ke inflationary pressures mein tezi se girawat ke baad aya tha.

Reuters ke ek poll ke mutabiq, BoE se umeed hai ke November mein ek aur interest rate cut karega, kyun ke inflation ab bhi bank ke target 2% ke upar rehne ki umeed hai. Rabobank ke analysts ne ek note mein kaha: "Hum dekh rahe hain ke headline inflation year-end tak 2.75%-3.00% ke darmiyan pohanchne ki umeed hai."

Is haftay, Pound Sterling ke liye major trigger BoE ke Governor Andrew Bailey ka JH Symposium mein Friday ko hone wala speech hoga. Andrew Bailey shayad is baat par rehnumai karein ke kya BoE dobara September mein interest rates cut karega. Investors wage growth aur service inflation ke outlook par clues bhi talash karenge.

Pound Sterling US Dollar ke muqable mein outperform kar raha hai jab ke badhte huay speculation ke sath Federal Reserve (Fed) apne September ke meeting se interest rates reduce karna shuru karega. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ki value ko chay bari currencies ke muqable mein track karta hai, 101.00 ke qareeb hover kar raha hai, jo is saal ka sabse lowest level hai.

Investors ke confidence mein izafa hua hai ke Fed policy normalization ki taraf shift karega jab ke Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ke July 30-31 meeting ke minutes ne dikhaya ke kuch policymakers ne already us waqt borrowing rates cut karne ka suggestion diya tha. Phir bhi, “vast majority” officials ne kaha ke "agar data expected mutabiq aata raha, to agle meeting mein policy ko ease karna munasib hoga," minutes ke mutabiq.

Isi dauran, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) mein March 2024 tak ki downward revision ne potential recession ka khauf doobara zinda kar diya aur traders ne September mein 50-basis-points (bps) interest-rate reduction ki bet ko barha diya. US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ne report kiya ke total employees ki tadad pichlay estimate se 818K kam thi, jisne sizeable interest rate cut ke expectations ko mazid barha diya.

Ab investors ka focus Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium par shift ho raha hai, jo 14:00 GMT par shuru hoga aur August 24 tak chalega. Highlight Fed Chair Jerome Powell ka Friday ko hone wala speech hoga. Investors September mein hone wale interest rate cuts ke potential size ke hawalay se naye clues talash karenge. Thursday ke session mein, investors ka focus US S&P Global PMI data par hoga jo ke August ke liye 13:45 GMT par publish hoga.

Pound Sterling US Dollar ke muqable mein year-to-date high 1.3050 par post kar raha hai. GBP/USD pair ek Rising Channel chart pattern mein upar move kar raha hai jahan har pullback ko market participants ek buying opportunity ke tor par dekh rahe hain. Upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) lagbhag 1.2875 ke qareeb yeh suggest karta hai ke near-term trend bullish hai.

14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish range 60.00-80.00 mein oscillate kar raha hai, jo ke strong upside momentum ko suggest karta hai. Phir bhi, yeh overbought levels tak pohanch gaya hai lagbhag 70.00 par, jo corrective pullback ke chances ko barha deta hai. Upside par, 1.3140 ke do-saal ke high par Pound Sterling bulls ke liye key resistance zone hoga.

EUR Fundamental Aspects
Euro 20 European Union countries ke liye currency hai jo Eurozone ka hissa hain. Yeh duniya ki doosri sabse heavily traded currency hai US Dollar ke baad. 2022 mein, yeh sab foreign exchange transactions ka 31% tha, aur iska average daily turnover $2.2 trillion se zyada tha. EUR/USD duniya ka sabse heavily traded currency pair hai, jo sab transactions ka takreeban 30% hai, is ke baad EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) aur EUR/AUD (2%) hain.

European Central Bank (ECB) Frankfurt, Germany mein Eurozone ke liye reserve bank hai. ECB interest rates set karta hai aur monetary policy ko manage karta hai. ECB ka primary mandate price stability ko maintain karna hai, jo ya to inflation ko control karna ya growth ko stimulate karna hota hai. Iska primary tool interest rates ko barhane ya kam karne ka hota hai. Relatively high interest rates – ya higher rates ki umeed – usually Euro ke liye beneficial hoti hai aur vice versa. ECB Governing Council monetary policy decisions meetings mein lete hain jo saal mein aath dafa hoti hain. Decisions Eurozone ke national banks ke heads aur chay permanent members, including ECB President, Christine Lagarde, karte hain.

Eurozone inflation data, jo Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) se measure hota hai, Euro ke liye ek important econometric hai. Agar inflation expected se zyada barhti hai, khaaskar agar yeh ECB ke 2% target se upar ho, to ECB ko interest rates barhane par majboor karti hai taake isay control mein rakha ja sake. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts usually Euro ke liye faidamand hotay hain, kyun ke yeh region ko global investors ke liye apna paisa rakhne ke liye zyada attractive banata hai.

Data releases economy ki sehat ko gauge karte hain aur Euro par asar dal sakte hain. GDP, Manufacturing aur Services PMIs, employment, aur consumer sentiment surveys jaise indicators currency ki direction ko influence kar sakte hain. Ek strong economy Euro ke liye acha hota hai. Na sirf yeh zyada foreign investment ko attract kar sakta hai balke ECB ko interest rates barhane par encourage kar sakta hai, jo directly Euro ko mazboot karega. Warna, agar economic data kamzor hota hai, to Euro ke girne ke chances hotay hain. Euro area ki char badi economies (Germany, France, Italy aur Spain) ke liye economic data khaaskar significant hota hai, kyun ke yeh Eurozone ke economy ka 75% banti hain.

Euro ke liye ek aur significant data release Trade Balance hai. Yeh indicator kisi country ke exports se kamayi hui earning aur imports par kharchi gayi raqam ke darmiyan difference ko measure karta hai kisi bhi given period ke liye. Agar ek country highly sought-after exports produce karti hai to iski currency ki value barh sakti hai purely foreign buyers ke demand se jo yeh goods khareedna chahte hain. Isliye, ek positive net Trade Balance currency ko mazboot banata hai aur negative balance ke liye vice versa.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!
EUR/GBP nai 0.8500 ke neeche naye do haftay ke low ko chhua, kai challenges ka samna

EUR/GBP pair 0.8500 ke neeche test kar raha hai jab Eurozone ke Q2 Negotiated Wage Rates ke soft honay ke baad Euro Sterling ke muqable mein kamzor ho raha hai. ECB se September mein dobara interest rates cut karne ki umeed hai. Pound Sterling UK ke August ke flash PMI ke achi report ke baad mazid taqat hasil kar raha hai.

EUR/GBP pair Thursday ke North American session mein takriban teen hafta ke naye low 0.8480 ke qareeb post kar raha hai. Cross weaken hota hai jab Euro Pound Sterling ke muqable mein underperform kar raha hai, aur Q2 Negotiated Wage Rates ke kam hone ke baad European Central Bank (ECB) ke rate cuts ki umeed mazid barh gayi hai jo September mein expected hai.

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ECB ne June mein apni policy-easing ka aghaz kiya tha, aur July mein ek pause ke baad September mein dobara apne key borrowing rates cut karne ki umeed hai. Thursday ke European trading hours mein data aaya ke Negotiated Wage Rates iss saal ke pehle quarter ke 4.74% se 3.55% ki slower pace par barhe, jo ke inflation ke dawam ko lehaz mein rakhtay huay concerns ko kam karta hai.

ING ke economists ne Thursday ko ek note mein kaha, "European Central Bank ko interest rates cut karne mein ab bhi takleef hai jab tak wage growth elevated hai."

Isi ke sath Eurozone ke August ke upbeat flash HCOB Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data ne Euro (EUR) ko mazid taqat nahi di. Preliminary report ne dikhaya ke Composite PMI unexpected tor par 51.2 tak barh gaya. Economists ne yeh project kiya tha ke overall activity mushkil se barhegi. Eurozone economy mein strong growth ziada tar France mein Olympics games ke doran hui business activity se aayi, jab ke Eurozone ki bari economy, Germany, mein PMI ziada tezi se contract kar rahi hai.

Doosri taraf, Pound Sterling (GBP) apne major peers ke muqable mein strong perform kar raha hai UK ke August ke flash S&P Global/CIPS PMI data ke baad jo economic outlook ko mazid mazboot banata hai. Composite PMI ne ek tezi se pace mein expand kiya, jo manufacturing aur service sector donon mein sharp increase ki wajah se hua.

Overall business activity mein ye tezi Bank of England (BoE) ke August 1 ko kiye gaye interest rate cut ka nateeja lagti hai. BoE se umeed hai ke is saal ke last quarter mein ek aur rate cut karega.

GBP Aspects
Pound Sterling (GBP) Thursday ke early New York session mein US Dollar (USD) ke muqable mein 1.3130 ke qareeb jump kar gaya. GBP/USD pair Thursday ko apni winning streak ko chhata trading session tak barhata hai jab ke flash United Kingdom (UK) ke August S&P Global/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report ne dikhaya ke overall economic activities tezi se expand hui. Composite PMI 53.4 peh aya jo expectations ke 52.9 aur pehle ke 52.8 se zyada tha, jo ke manufacturing aur service sector donon mein robust expansion ki wajah se hua.

Flash PMI data par comment karte huay, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence ne kaha, "August mein stronger economic growth, improved job creation aur lower inflation ka combination dekhne ko mil raha hai, jo ke provisional PMI survey data ke mutabiq hai." Williamson ne mazid kaha, "Manufacturing aur service sectors donon mein solid output growth aur increased job gains dekhne ko mil rahe hain jab ke business confidence ab bhi historical standards ke mutabiq elevated hai."

Upbeat flash UK PMI data ne British currency ka outlook improve kar diya hai kyun ke yeh Bank of England ke September mein interest rate cuts ke market expectations par asar dal sakta hai, jo ke service sector mein July ke inflationary pressures mein tezi se girawat ke baad aya tha.

Reuters ke ek poll ke mutabiq, BoE se umeed hai ke November mein ek aur interest rate cut karega, kyun ke inflation ab bhi bank ke target 2% ke upar rehne ki umeed hai. Rabobank ke analysts ne ek note mein kaha: "Hum dekh rahe hain ke headline inflation year-end tak 2.75%-3.00% ke darmiyan pohanchne ki umeed hai."

Is haftay, Pound Sterling ke liye major trigger BoE ke Governor Andrew Bailey ka JH Symposium mein Friday ko hone wala speech hoga. Andrew Bailey shayad is baat par rehnumai karein ke kya BoE dobara September mein interest rates cut karega. Investors wage growth aur service inflation ke outlook par clues bhi talash karenge.

Pound Sterling US Dollar ke muqable mein outperform kar raha hai jab ke badhte huay speculation ke sath Federal Reserve (Fed) apne September ke meeting se interest rates reduce karna shuru karega. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ki value ko chay bari currencies ke muqable mein track karta hai, 101.00 ke qareeb hover kar raha hai, jo is saal ka sabse lowest level hai.

Investors ke confidence mein izafa hua hai ke Fed policy normalization ki taraf shift karega jab ke Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ke July 30-31 meeting ke minutes ne dikhaya ke kuch policymakers ne already us waqt borrowing rates cut karne ka suggestion diya tha. Phir bhi, “vast majority” officials ne kaha ke "agar data expected mutabiq aata raha, to agle meeting mein policy ko ease karna munasib hoga," minutes ke mutabiq.

Isi dauran, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) mein March 2024 tak ki downward revision ne potential recession ka khauf doobara zinda kar diya aur traders ne September mein 50-basis-points (bps) interest-rate reduction ki bet ko barha diya. US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ne report kiya ke total employees ki tadad pichlay estimate se 818K kam thi, jisne sizeable interest rate cut ke expectations ko mazid barha diya.

Ab investors ka focus Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium par shift ho raha hai, jo 14:00 GMT par shuru hoga aur August 24 tak chalega. Highlight Fed Chair Jerome Powell ka Friday ko hone wala speech hoga. Investors September mein hone wale interest rate cuts ke potential size ke hawalay se naye clues talash karenge. Thursday ke session mein, investors ka focus US S&P Global PMI data par hoga jo ke August ke liye 13:45 GMT par publish hoga.

Pound Sterling US Dollar ke muqable mein year-to-date high 1.3050 par post kar raha hai. GBP/USD pair ek Rising Channel chart pattern mein upar move kar raha hai jahan har pullback ko market participants ek buying opportunity ke tor par dekh rahe hain. Upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) lagbhag 1.2875 ke qareeb yeh suggest karta hai ke near-term trend bullish hai.

14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish range 60.00-80.00 mein oscillate kar raha hai, jo ke strong upside momentum ko suggest karta hai. Phir bhi, yeh overbought levels tak pohanch gaya hai lagbhag 70.00 par, jo corrective pullback ke chances ko barha deta hai. Upside par, 1.3140 ke do-saal ke high par Pound Sterling bulls ke liye key resistance zone hoga.

EUR Fundamental Aspects
Euro 20 European Union countries ke liye currency hai jo Eurozone ka hissa hain. Yeh duniya ki doosri sabse heavily traded currency hai US Dollar ke baad. 2022 mein, yeh sab foreign exchange transactions ka 31% tha, aur iska average daily turnover $2.2 trillion se zyada tha. EUR/USD duniya ka sabse heavily traded currency pair hai, jo sab transactions ka takreeban 30% hai, is ke baad EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) aur EUR/AUD (2%) hain.

European Central Bank (ECB) Frankfurt, Germany mein Eurozone ke liye reserve bank hai. ECB interest rates set karta hai aur monetary policy ko manage karta hai. ECB ka primary mandate price stability ko maintain karna hai, jo ya to inflation ko control karna ya growth ko stimulate karna hota hai. Iska primary tool interest rates ko barhane ya kam karne ka hota hai. Relatively high interest rates – ya higher rates ki umeed – usually Euro ke liye beneficial hoti hai aur vice versa. ECB Governing Council monetary policy decisions meetings mein lete hain jo saal mein aath dafa hoti hain. Decisions Eurozone ke national banks ke heads aur chay permanent members, including ECB President, Christine Lagarde, karte hain.

Eurozone inflation data, jo Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) se measure hota hai, Euro ke liye ek important econometric hai. Agar inflation expected se zyada barhti hai, khaaskar agar yeh ECB ke 2% target se upar ho, to ECB ko interest rates barhane par majboor karti hai taake isay control mein rakha ja sake. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts usually Euro ke liye faidamand hotay hain, kyun ke yeh region ko global investors ke liye apna paisa rakhne ke liye zyada attractive banata hai.

Data releases economy ki sehat ko gauge karte hain aur Euro par asar dal sakte hain. GDP, Manufacturing aur Services PMIs, employment, aur consumer sentiment surveys jaise indicators currency ki direction ko influence kar sakte hain. Ek strong economy Euro ke liye acha hota hai. Na sirf yeh zyada foreign investment ko attract kar sakta hai balke ECB ko interest rates barhane par encourage kar sakta hai, jo directly Euro ko mazboot karega. Warna, agar economic data kamzor hota hai, to Euro ke girne ke chances hotay hain. Euro area ki char badi economies (Germany, France, Italy aur Spain) ke liye economic data khaaskar significant hota hai, kyun ke yeh Eurozone ke economy ka 75% banti hain.

Euro ke liye ek aur significant data release Trade Balance hai. Yeh indicator kisi country ke exports se kamayi hui earning aur imports par kharchi gayi raqam ke darmiyan difference ko measure karta hai kisi bhi given period ke liye. Agar ek country highly sought-after exports produce karti hai to iski currency ki value barh sakti hai purely foreign buyers ke demand se jo yeh goods khareedna chahte hain. Isliye, ek positive net Trade Balance currency ko mazboot banata hai aur negative balance ke liye vice versa.

Monday ke trading main, EUR/GBP market ki situation kuch khaas nahi thi, is liye trading recommend nahi ki gayi kyun ke movement sirf limited space main hui. H1 time frame pe dikhaya gaya, jahan price Asian session main flat move hui, is haftay ke weekly open ke aas paas 0.8425 pe. European session ke agay, sellers aaye jo sirf thoda sa pressure provide kar sake aur price gira kar weekly open ke neeche EMA 200 H1 ko cross karne ki koshish ki. Unfortunately, sellers ka defense sirf chand waqt ka tha, price wapas upar aaya jab 0.8412 ko touch kiya. Price aahista aahista upar move hui aur EMA 200 H1 ko cross kar gaya, is se penetration confirm nahi hui aur price wapas weekly open area main aa gayi. Lagta hai buyers ki ability bhi limited hai, 0.8425 area ko reach karne ke baad, price halka sa weak hui aur EMA 200 ke aas paas end hui, market closing figure 0.8419 pe. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 signal support provide nahi kar sakte kyun ke jo crossing hui thi wo perfect nahi thi. Ab dono EMAs tapering aur flat dikh rahe hain. Aaj ki trading conditions bhi kuch khaas changes nahi dikhati. Price movements kal ki tarah hain. Market subah ko 0.8417 pe open hui. Price daily open aur is ke kareebi upper resistance jo ke 0.8525 hai, ke darmiyan move hui. Ye area abhi tak resistance hai jo buyers ko prices push karne se rok raha hai. Price movement ka room narrow hota ja raha hai, lekin ye bhi ek acha mauka ho sakta hai next price flow ke nayi direction ka wait karne ke liye. Daily time frame mein price movements ke graphical conditions dekhte hue, kal price 0.8424 ke upper daily resistance ke upar move karne mein fail hui. Ye area Friday ko bhi positive price movement ko rokne wala area bana. Bullishness ko rokne ki wajah se price ko finally sellers se pressure mila aur negative price movement hui jo sirf Friday ke low price 0.8412 ke aas paas shift karne mein kamiyab hui, is umeed ke saath ke price daily support level 0.8405 tak move kar payegi.

EURGBP pair basically abhi bhi bullish trend mein hai lekin iss waqt thodi correction ho rahi hai. Kai dafa price ne upar jane ki koshish ki aur resistance (R1) 0.8611 ko cross karne ki koshish ki, lekin wahan se rejection mila. Price EMA 50 tak gir kar wapas upar jane ki koshish ki, lekin pivot point (PP) 0.8564 ke upar consistently rehne mein kamiyab nahi ho paya. Yeh downward correction tab tak jaari rahi jab tak price EMA 50 ke neeche chala gaya aur lagbhag support (S1) 0.8506 tak pahunch gaya. Aage jaane ke imkaan hai ke yeh downward correction support (S2) 0.8459 tak bhi gir sakta hai kyunki yeh rally base rally (RBR) ko paar kar gaya hai jo ab demand area 0.8531 - 0.8517 hai Price movement jo high prices 0.8623 se gir kar low prices 0.8530 tak gaya, phir wapas high prices 0.8591 tak upar gaya aur phir low prices 0.8509 tak gir gaya. Yeh dikhaata hai ke minor price pattern structure lower low - lower high condition mein hai. Agar EURGBP pair ka price jo abhi bhi bullish trend mein hai higher high prices 0.8591 ke upar banane mein nakam hota hai, to iska matlab yeh hoga ke yeh lower low support (S1) 0.8506 ke neeche banayega. Isliye, major structure ko higher high - higher low pattern ke saath banaye rakhne ke liye zaroori hai ke valid higher high prices resistance (R1) 0.8611 ke upar hon
Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ke side se lagta hai ke yeh EURGBP pair ke price ko neeche move karne mein support kar raha hai. Red histogram volume level 0 ya negative area ke neeche barh rahi hai jis se yeh zahir hota hai ke downtrend momentum kaafi strong hai. Lekin, Stochastic indicator parameters jo ke oversold zone level 20 - 10 ke paas cross kar chuke hain price ko wapas upar jane mein support karte hain. Lekin agar level 50 tak jaane ke raste mein yeh parameter dobara oversold zone ki taraf jata hai, to phir yeh imkaan hai ke price support (S1) 0.8506 ko cross karke SMA 200 ko as dynamic support test kare
Setup entry position
Agar aap trend direction pe dehan dein jo ke abhi bhi bullish hai halaan ke minor price pattern structure lower low - lower high dikha raha hai, to abhi bhi BUY moment ka intezar karna afzal hai. Entry position rakhte waqt yeh ensure karna zaroori hai ke girta hua price jab support (S1) 0.8506 ko test kar raha ho to wahan se false break ya rejection ka samna ho. Confirmation agar Stochastic indicator parameter overbought zone ya kam az kam level 50 aur level 20 ke darmiyan cross kare. AO indicator histogram green hona chahiye taake downtrend momentum kamzor ho. Take profit pivot point (PP) 0.8564 target kar sakta hai aur stop loss SMA 200 aur support (S2) 0.8459 ke darmiyan rakh sakte hain

Yeh EUR/GBP market ka review Wednesday ke trading ke liye hai. Market ka khulna 0.8535 ke price par hua. Lagta hai ke price abhi bhi limited range mein movement kar rahi hai, lekin daily open ke around bullish tendency hai. EMA 200 H1 bhi is area ke paas cross hua hai, jo ke ab buyers ke dwara penetrate karne ki koshish ki ja rahi hai. European session ke dauran price EMA ke upar hai, lekin trading conditions puri nahi hui hain.
EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 jo ke EMA 200 H1 ke neeche hain, upward direction mein hain jo ke current price flow ko indicate karta hai. Pichle hafte pressure ki wajah se price gir gayi thi, lekin Monday se price ne upar chadhne ki koshish ki hai, lekin movement range mein itni wide nahi hai. Kal price ne EMA 200 ko morning se reach karne ki koshish ki thi, lekin sellers ke pressure ki wajah se weakness dekhne ko mili. Price dheere-dheere gir gayi aur weekly open 0.8522 ke aas-paas aa gayi, jahan buyers ka defense phir se nazar aaya.

Thodi dair baad price upar aur neeche hilti rahi aur strengthening ka signal milne laga. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 jo ke downward cross bana rahe the, phir se upward cross bana rahe hain. Price ko EMA 200 H1 line tak support mila aur closing 0.8536 par hui. Kal ki bullish price ne bullish candle shadow diya jo ke body se neeche hai, jo buyers ki dominance ka indication hai.

Yeh strengthening ab price ko EMA 200 daily line tak le aayi hai, jo ke ab test ho rahi hai. Price upar move karne ki koshish kar rahi hai lekin abhi bhi daily dynamic resistance se resistance mil raha hai. Bun trend ko biased read kiya ja raha hai. Agar price EMA 200 ko penetrate kar leti hai aur daily resistance 0.8545 ko pass kar leti hai, to price ko 0.8584 tak positive move dekhne ko mil sakti hai, EMA 633 daily ko target banate hue.

Agar price EMA 200 daily se reject hoti hai, to sellers ka test daily support 0.8521 aur EMA 36 daily line jo ke support 0.8497 ko cross kar rahi hai, ke aas-paas hoga. EMA 36 daily bearish movement ka indicator ban sakta hai, agar break out hota hai aur price EMA 200 ke neeche chali jaati hai to bearish trend validate ho jayega.

Daily stochastic ko dekhen to line ab level 20 se upwards curve kar rahi hai, jo ke buyers ki strength ka indication hai aur near future mein positive movement ko allow karta hai. Yeh condition EMA 12 aur EMA 36 daily ke upward direction ko sharp karta hai jo ke price flow ka signal hai EMA 200 daily se neeche.

EURGBP pair basically abhi bhi bullish trend mein hai lekin iss waqt thodi correction ho rahi hai. Kai dafa price ne upar jane ki koshish ki aur resistance (R1) 0.8611 ko cross karne ki koshish ki, lekin wahan se rejection mila. Price EMA 50 tak gir kar wapas upar jane ki koshish ki, lekin pivot point (PP) 0.8564 ke upar consistently rehne mein kamiyab nahi ho paya. Yeh downward correction tab tak jaari rahi jab tak price EMA 50 ke neeche chala gaya aur lagbhag support (S1) 0.8506 tak pahunch gaya. Aage jaane ke imkaan hai ke yeh downward correction support (S2) 0.8459 tak bhi gir sakta hai kyunki yeh rally base rally (RBR) ko paar kar gaya hai jo ab demand area 0.8531 - 0.8517 hai Price movement jo high prices 0.8623 se gir kar low prices 0.8530 tak gaya, phir wapas high prices 0.8591 tak upar gaya aur phir low prices 0.8509 tak gir gaya. Yeh dikhaata hai ke minor price pattern structure lower low - lower high condition mein hai. Agar EURGBP pair ka price jo abhi bhi bullish trend mein hai higher high prices 0.8591 ke upar banane mein nakam hota hai, to iska matlab yeh hoga ke yeh lower low support (S1) 0.8506 ke neeche banayega. Isliye, major structure ko higher high - higher low pattern ke saath banaye rakhne ke liye zaroori hai ke valid higher high prices resistance (R1) 0.8611 ke upar hon Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ke side se lagta hai ke yeh EURGBP pair ke price ko neeche move karne mein support kar raha hai. Red histogram volume level 0 ya negative area ke neeche barh rahi hai jis se yeh zahir hota hai ke downtrend momentum kaafi strong hai. Lekin, Stochastic indicator parameters jo ke oversold zone level 20 - 10 ke paas cross kar chuke hain price ko wapas upar jane mein support karte hain. Lekin agar level 50 tak jaane ke raste mein yeh parameter dobara oversold zone ki taraf jata hai, to phir yeh imkaan hai ke price support (S1) 0.8506 ko cross karke SMA 200 ko as dynamic support test kare
Setup entry position
Agar aap trend direction pe dehan dein jo ke abhi bhi bullish hai halaan ke minor price pattern structure lower low - lower high dikha raha hai, to abhi bhi BUY moment ka intezar karna afzal hai. Entry position rakhte waqt yeh ensure karna zaroori hai ke girta hua price jab support (S1) 0.8506 ko test kar raha ho to wahan se false break ya rejection ka samna ho. Confirmation agar Stochastic indicator parameter overbought zone ya kam az kam level 50 aur level 20 ke darmiyan cross kare. AO indicator histogram green hona chahiye taake downtrend momentum kamzor ho. Take profit pivot point (PP) 0.8564 target kar sakta hai aur stop loss SMA 200 aur support (S2) 0.8459 ke darmiyan rakh sakte hain

EUR/GBP ke hawale se Friday ko, jab price ne
pehle ke daily range ka high update kiya, to uske baad price ne ulta chalna shuru kar diya aur din ke aakhir mein ek uncertainty ka candle bana jisme thodi si bearish shakti thi. Overall dekha jaye to yeh zahir hai ke is instrument par accumulation ho rahi hai, lekin mujhe lagta hai ke agle hafte mein yeh gap band hoga aur sab se qareeb resistance levels ko test kiya jayega. Is surat mein, mera plan hai ke main 0.84836 aur 0.84994 ke resistance levels par focus karun.
In resistance levels ke qareeb, do possible scenarios hain. Pehla scenario yeh hai ke ek reversal candle banayegi aur price neechay ki taraf wapas aayegi. Agar yeh plan execute hota hai, to main expect karunga ke price support level 0.84298 ki taraf wapas aayegi. Agar price is support level ke neeche consolidate karti hai, to mai aur neeche ki movement expect karunga, jo ke support level 0.83972 tak ja sakti hai. Is support level ke qareeb, main ek trading setup ka intezar karunga jo future trading direction ko determine karne mein madad karega. Haan, yeh mumkin hai ke price door ke southern targets ki taraf bhi jaaye, lekin abhi is par dhyan nahi de raha kyunki iske jaldi hone ke chances nahi lagte.

Ek alternative scenario yeh hai ke price 0.84836 ya 0.84994 ke resistance levels ko cross karke unke upar consolidate kar jaaye aur phir north ki taraf barh jaaye. Agar yeh plan execute hota hai, to main expect karunga ke price 0.85405 ke resistance level ki taraf barhegi. Is resistance level ke qareeb, main ek reversal candle ka intezar karunga aur overall southern trend ke andar downward price movement phir se shuru hone ka intezar karunga.

Toh, agle hafte main locally dekh raha hoon ke price shayad northern direction mein move karti rahe aur nearest resistance level tak pohnche. Uske baad, existing southern tendency ko dekhte hue, main bearish signals ka intezar karunga in nearest resistance levels se.

EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP currency pair abhi bhi aik musalsal bearish trend se mutasir hai, aur umeed hai ke is kaam se downward movement aur barh sakti hai, jo ke shayad support level 0.8484 ko target kare. Yeh jari girawat pair ke gird negative sentiment ko dikhati hai jo ke kaafi waqt se chal raha hai. Aaiye dekhte hain ke is trend ke peechay kya wajah hai aur traders short term mein kya expect kar sakte hain.

Dusri taraf, British pound ne relative strength dikhayi hai, jo ke mazid behtar economic indicators aur Bank of England (BoE) ke clear monetary policy direction ki wajah se hai. BoE ka hawkish stance, jo ke European Central Bank (ECB) ke dovish stance ke muqablay mein hai, inflation ke khilaf potential interest rate hikes ka signal de raha hai. Monetary policies mein yeh farq EUR/GBP pair ko aur zyada bearish territory mein push kar raha hai.

Technical analysis ke mutabiq, EUR/GBP pair ke downward momentum ke continuation ki umeed hai. Pair lower highs aur lower lows bana raha hai, jo ke sustained downtrend ko darshata hai. 50-day aur 200-day moving averages bhi neeche ki taraf trend kar rahe hain, jo bearish sentiment ko reinforce karta hai. Iske ilawa, momentum indicators jese ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) aur Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) bhi bearish zones mein hain, jo ke constant selling pressure ko indicate karta hai.

Support level 0.8484 bohot ahmiyat rakhta hai. Tareekh mein, yeh aksar ek strong support level ke taur par kaam aaya hai aur price declines ko roknay mein madadgar raha hai. Agar EUR/GBP pair is level ke qareeb aaye, to price action ko closely monitor karna zaroori hoga. Agar price 0.8484 ke neeche clear break karti hai, to yeh further downside ka signal ho sakta hai, jo ke 0.8450 aur 0.8400 ke additional support levels ko target kar sakta hai. Wahi agar 0.8484 se strong bounce hoti hai, to yeh temporary consolidation ya minor rebound ko lead kar sakta hai.

Summary yeh hai ke EUR/GBP pair abhi bhi firmly bearish trajectory mein hai, jo ke weaker euro fundamentals aur robust pound dynamics ki wajah se hai. Technical indicators bhi is outlook ke sath align karte hain, jo ke downtrend ke continuation ko suggest karte hain, particularly towards critical support level 0.8484. Traders ko is pivotal level ko closely monitor karna chahiye, saath hi aane wale economic data aur geopolitical developments ko bhi dekhna chahiye taake pair ki future direction ko assess kiya ja sake. Jab ke prevailing sentiment bearish hai, forex market ki dynamic nature ko dekhte hue, ek vigilant aur adaptable trading strategy zaroori hai.

**EUR-GBP Pair Analysis
**Daily Time Frame Analysis

Kal ke dainik time frame ke dauran, price upper daily resistance 0.8424 se upar nahi ja paayi. Ye area Friday ko bhi positive price movement ko rokne ka kaam kar raha tha. Is inhibited bullishness ki wajah se price par sellers ka pressure aaya aur negative price movement shuru hui jo sirf Friday ke low price 0.8412 tak hi pahuncha. Umeed hai ke price daily support level 0.8405 tak negative movement dekhayegi. Kal ke trading ke doran price ne 0.8430 aur 0.8412 ke highs aur lows form kiye aur daily par ek bearish candle banayi, jo buyers ke attempts ko rok rahi thi. Friday ke EUR-GBP market ke movement se ek bullish daily candle ban gayi thi.

**Current Market Conditions**

Aaj ke trading ke doran, price ne 0.8424 area ko test karne ki koshish ki, lekin sellers ka pressure phir se samne aaya aur ab European session mein price neeche move kar rahi hai. Saath hi, daily Stochastic level 80 tak pahuncha hai aur uski line neeche ki taraf curve kar rahi hai jo sellers ke strength ko indicate kar raha hai. Agar ye pressure stable raha, to price ki weakening 0.8405 area ki taraf ho sakti hai. Agar ye area break hota hai to price next daily support level 0.8373 tak gir sakti hai, jo overbought signal ka response ho sakta hai.

**Possible Market Reactions**

Agar kal ka low price break nahi hota aur ya price 0.8405 area se reject hoti hai, to price phir se upar ja kar 0.8424 area ko test kar sakti hai, EMA 36 daily line tak. Filhal, market daily time frame par downtrend mein hai, jahan EMA 200 daily price movement ke upar hai. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 lines neeche ki taraf latakti hui hain jo bearish trend ko indicate kar rahi hain

EUR/GBP D1 TIME FRAME CHART

Main EUR/GBP currency pair ke D1 period chart ko dekhte hain. Is mahine ke shuru se, price chhoti chhoti rollbacks ke sath gir rahi thi aur mahine ke darmiyan pichli wave ka minimum update kar diya. Technically, yeh is tarah se lag raha tha. Pichle mahine jab corrective rise hui thi, to price ne 0.8497 ke horizontal resistance level ko touch kiya. CCI indicator upper overheating zone se neeche jane ke liye ready tha, isliye price wahan se neeche chalni shuru ho gayi. Technical basis kafi achha tha. Iske ilawa, overall wave structure descending hai. MACD indicator bhi lower selling zone mein hai, magar signal line ke upar. Jaise ke pehle bataya, decline ke dauran pichli wave ka minimum update kiya gaya, jo ke pichle mahine June ka bhi minimum tha. Is saal ke April se paanch aise cycles guzre hain, aur paanchwa cycle khatam ho gaya hai. Paanch waves ek complete cycle hain, jo ke signal dete hain ke ab upward correction aayegi, jo ke shuru bhi ho chuki hai.

Price ek reversal pattern mein thi - ek descending wedge. Horizontal resistance level 0.8425 bhi growth ko rok raha tha, lekin pichle hafte yeh level break ho gaya. Ab dono, wedge aur level, upward break ho chuke hain. Halankeh yeh yahan stuck hain, magar yeh plans ko nahi badalte. Mera khayal hai ke yeh sirf temporary delay hai. In halaton ke chalte, ab kisi bhi form mein sales ko consider nahi kiya jayega, sirf purchases par focus hoga. Jald hi bullish divergence aur upward broken wedge ka kaam karne ki umeed hai, jo ke 0.8497 area tak price ko le jayega. Short term mein, jab growth ke liye corresponding structures ban rahe hain, upward movement strategy kaam karegi.EUR/GBP D1 TIME FRAME CHART

Main EUR/GBP currency pair ke D1 period chart ko dekhte hain. Is mahine ke shuru se, price chhoti chhoti rollbacks ke sath gir rahi thi aur mahine ke darmiyan pichli wave ka minimum update kar diya. Technically, yeh is tarah se lag raha tha. Pichle mahine jab corrective rise hui thi, to price ne 0.8497 ke horizontal resistance level ko touch kiya. CCI indicator upper overheating zone se neeche jane ke liye ready tha, isliye price wahan se neeche chalni shuru ho gayi. Technical basis kafi achha tha. Iske ilawa, overall wave structure descending hai. MACD indicator bhi lower selling zone mein hai, magar signal line ke upar. Jaise ke pehle bataya, decline ke dauran pichli wave ka minimum update kiya gaya, jo ke pichle mahine June ka bhi minimum tha. Is saal ke April se paanch aise cycles guzre hain, aur paanchwa cycle khatam ho gaya hai. Paanch waves ek complete cycle hain, jo ke signal dete hain ke ab upward correction aayegi, jo ke shuru bhi ho chuki hai.

Price ek reversal pattern mein thi - ek descending wedge. Horizontal resistance level 0.8425 bhi growth ko rok raha tha, lekin pichle hafte yeh level break ho gaya. Ab dono, wedge aur level, upward break ho chuke hain. Halankeh yeh yahan stuck hain, magar yeh plans ko nahi badalte. Mera khayal hai ke yeh sirf temporary delay hai. In halaton ke chalte, ab kisi bhi form mein sales ko consider nahi kiya jayega, sirf purchases par focus hoga. Jald hi bullish divergence aur upward broken wedge ka kaam karne ki umeed hai, jo ke 0.8497 area tak price ko le jayega. Short term mein, jab growth ke liye corresponding structures ban rahe hain, upward movement strategy kaam karegi.

Euro/Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) currency pair ne Thursday ko early European trading ke doran 0.8450 ke aas paas strength dikhayi. Yeh upward movement primarily Eurozone ke stronger-than-expected economic data ke wajah se thi. Eurozone ke inflation figures ke release se European Central Bank (ECB) ke September mein interest rate cut ke possibility par doubts uth gaye. Jabke inflation barh gaya, economists ka kehna hai ke ECB overall economic situation ki wajah se cautious stance rakhegi. Bank of England (BoE) ke aane wale interest rate decision ke hawale se market sentiment mixed tha. Kuch logon ne 25 basis point rate cut ki ummeed rakhi, jabke dusre logon ka kehna tha ke central bank steady rahega. Agar unexpected rate cut hoti hai, to Pound Sterling kamzor ho sakta hai, jo EUR/GBP pair ke liye faida mand ho sakta hai.



Technical analysis ke mutabiq, EUR/GBP pair ne 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) se girawat ke baad sideways trend dikhaya. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator ne potential upward momentum ka indication diya. Lekin, foran ke resistance levels 20-day SMA (0.8465) aur 0.8482 se 0.8495 ke beech resistance zone mein the. Agar price in levels ko break kar deti hai, to 50-day SMA jo ke 0.8520 par hai, ko test kiya ja sakta hai. Halankeh short-term upward movement hui, overall trend bearish raha kyunki EUR/GBP pair sabhi moving averages ke neeche hai aur 20-day aur 50-day SMAs ke darmiyan bearish crossover hai.

Nateejay mein, Euro ne Pound Sterling ke muqablay mein mazid strength dikhayi, jo ke Eurozone aur United Kingdom ke economic conditions ke farq ki wajah se thi. Jabke Eurozone ke inflation data ne ECB ke monetary policy ke hawale se questions uthaye, market BoE ke actions ko lekar uncertain raha. Technical indicators ne short-term upward movement ka indication diya, lekin overall trend bearish hi raha.

EUR-GBP Pair Analysis
Aaj ke daily time frame ke graph ko dekhte hue, kal price upper daily resistance level 0.8424 se upar nahi chal saki. Ye area Friday ko bhi positive price movement ko roknay wala bana tha. Is inhibition ki wajah se buyers ko sellers ka pressure mila aur price mein negative movement aayi, jo sirf Friday ke low price 0.8412 tak hi pohnch saki. Umeed hai ke price daily support level 0.8405 ki taraf aur neeche ja sakti hai. Kal trading ke doran, price ne highs aur lows banaye 0.8430 aur 0.8412 ke beech aur daily par ek bearish candle banayi jo buyers ki koshish ko roknay jaisi thi. Yeh candle Friday ko banaye gaye daily bullish candle ka response thi.

Aaj ke trading mein price ne 0.8424 area ko test karne ki koshish ki, lekin sellers ka pressure dobara se aaya aur ab European session mein price neeche move kar rahi hai. Saath hi, daily Stochastic level 80 tak pohnch gaya aur iska line neeche ki taraf curve kar rahi hai, jo sellers ki strength ko indicate kar raha hai jo market mein enter karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Agar yeh pressure barqarar raha, to weakening original location 0.8405 area ki taraf hoga. Agar yeh area break hota hai, to weakening continue ho sakti hai aur yeh market ke overbought signal ka response bhi ho sakta hai, jiska next daily support target 0.8373 ho sakta hai.

Agar kal ka low price penetrate nahi hota aur/or price 0.8405 area se reject hoti hai, to price upar wapas aa sakti hai aur 0.8424 area ko test karne ke liye ja sakti hai ya EMA 36 daily line tak pohnch sakti hai. Filhal market daily downtrend mein hai aur EMA 200 daily price movement ke upar hai. Neeche, EMA 12 aur EMA 36 lines downhang kar rahi hain jo bearish current ke dominant hone ko indicate kar rahi hain.