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EUR/GBP nai 0.8500 ke neeche naye do haftay ke low ko chhua, kai challenges ka samna
EUR/GBP pair 0.8500 ke neeche test kar raha hai jab Eurozone ke Q2 Negotiated Wage Rates ke soft honay ke baad Euro Sterling ke muqable mein kamzor ho raha hai. ECB se September mein dobara interest rates cut karne ki umeed hai. Pound Sterling UK ke August ke flash PMI ke achi report ke baad mazid taqat hasil kar raha hai.
EUR/GBP pair Thursday ke North American session mein takriban teen hafta ke naye low 0.8480 ke qareeb post kar raha hai. Cross weaken hota hai jab Euro Pound Sterling ke muqable mein underperform kar raha hai, aur Q2 Negotiated Wage Rates ke kam hone ke baad European Central Bank (ECB) ke rate cuts ki umeed mazid barh gayi hai jo September mein expected hai.
ECB ne June mein apni policy-easing ka aghaz kiya tha, aur July mein ek pause ke baad September mein dobara apne key borrowing rates cut karne ki umeed hai. Thursday ke European trading hours mein data aaya ke Negotiated Wage Rates iss saal ke pehle quarter ke 4.74% se 3.55% ki slower pace par barhe, jo ke inflation ke dawam ko lehaz mein rakhtay huay concerns ko kam karta hai.
ING ke economists ne Thursday ko ek note mein kaha, "European Central Bank ko interest rates cut karne mein ab bhi takleef hai jab tak wage growth elevated hai."
Isi ke sath Eurozone ke August ke upbeat flash HCOB Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data ne Euro (EUR) ko mazid taqat nahi di. Preliminary report ne dikhaya ke Composite PMI unexpected tor par 51.2 tak barh gaya. Economists ne yeh project kiya tha ke overall activity mushkil se barhegi. Eurozone economy mein strong growth ziada tar France mein Olympics games ke doran hui business activity se aayi, jab ke Eurozone ki bari economy, Germany, mein PMI ziada tezi se contract kar rahi hai.
Doosri taraf, Pound Sterling (GBP) apne major peers ke muqable mein strong perform kar raha hai UK ke August ke flash S&P Global/CIPS PMI data ke baad jo economic outlook ko mazid mazboot banata hai. Composite PMI ne ek tezi se pace mein expand kiya, jo manufacturing aur service sector donon mein sharp increase ki wajah se hua.
Overall business activity mein ye tezi Bank of England (BoE) ke August 1 ko kiye gaye interest rate cut ka nateeja lagti hai. BoE se umeed hai ke is saal ke last quarter mein ek aur rate cut karega.
GBP Aspects
Pound Sterling (GBP) Thursday ke early New York session mein US Dollar (USD) ke muqable mein 1.3130 ke qareeb jump kar gaya. GBP/USD pair Thursday ko apni winning streak ko chhata trading session tak barhata hai jab ke flash United Kingdom (UK) ke August S&P Global/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report ne dikhaya ke overall economic activities tezi se expand hui. Composite PMI 53.4 peh aya jo expectations ke 52.9 aur pehle ke 52.8 se zyada tha, jo ke manufacturing aur service sector donon mein robust expansion ki wajah se hua.
Flash PMI data par comment karte huay, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence ne kaha, "August mein stronger economic growth, improved job creation aur lower inflation ka combination dekhne ko mil raha hai, jo ke provisional PMI survey data ke mutabiq hai." Williamson ne mazid kaha, "Manufacturing aur service sectors donon mein solid output growth aur increased job gains dekhne ko mil rahe hain jab ke business confidence ab bhi historical standards ke mutabiq elevated hai."
Upbeat flash UK PMI data ne British currency ka outlook improve kar diya hai kyun ke yeh Bank of England ke September mein interest rate cuts ke market expectations par asar dal sakta hai, jo ke service sector mein July ke inflationary pressures mein tezi se girawat ke baad aya tha.
Reuters ke ek poll ke mutabiq, BoE se umeed hai ke November mein ek aur interest rate cut karega, kyun ke inflation ab bhi bank ke target 2% ke upar rehne ki umeed hai. Rabobank ke analysts ne ek note mein kaha: "Hum dekh rahe hain ke headline inflation year-end tak 2.75%-3.00% ke darmiyan pohanchne ki umeed hai."
Is haftay, Pound Sterling ke liye major trigger BoE ke Governor Andrew Bailey ka JH Symposium mein Friday ko hone wala speech hoga. Andrew Bailey shayad is baat par rehnumai karein ke kya BoE dobara September mein interest rates cut karega. Investors wage growth aur service inflation ke outlook par clues bhi talash karenge.
Pound Sterling US Dollar ke muqable mein outperform kar raha hai jab ke badhte huay speculation ke sath Federal Reserve (Fed) apne September ke meeting se interest rates reduce karna shuru karega. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ki value ko chay bari currencies ke muqable mein track karta hai, 101.00 ke qareeb hover kar raha hai, jo is saal ka sabse lowest level hai.
Investors ke confidence mein izafa hua hai ke Fed policy normalization ki taraf shift karega jab ke Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ke July 30-31 meeting ke minutes ne dikhaya ke kuch policymakers ne already us waqt borrowing rates cut karne ka suggestion diya tha. Phir bhi, “vast majority” officials ne kaha ke "agar data expected mutabiq aata raha, to agle meeting mein policy ko ease karna munasib hoga," minutes ke mutabiq.
Isi dauran, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) mein March 2024 tak ki downward revision ne potential recession ka khauf doobara zinda kar diya aur traders ne September mein 50-basis-points (bps) interest-rate reduction ki bet ko barha diya. US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ne report kiya ke total employees ki tadad pichlay estimate se 818K kam thi, jisne sizeable interest rate cut ke expectations ko mazid barha diya.
Ab investors ka focus Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium par shift ho raha hai, jo 14:00 GMT par shuru hoga aur August 24 tak chalega. Highlight Fed Chair Jerome Powell ka Friday ko hone wala speech hoga. Investors September mein hone wale interest rate cuts ke potential size ke hawalay se naye clues talash karenge. Thursday ke session mein, investors ka focus US S&P Global PMI data par hoga jo ke August ke liye 13:45 GMT par publish hoga.
Pound Sterling US Dollar ke muqable mein year-to-date high 1.3050 par post kar raha hai. GBP/USD pair ek Rising Channel chart pattern mein upar move kar raha hai jahan har pullback ko market participants ek buying opportunity ke tor par dekh rahe hain. Upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) lagbhag 1.2875 ke qareeb yeh suggest karta hai ke near-term trend bullish hai.
14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish range 60.00-80.00 mein oscillate kar raha hai, jo ke strong upside momentum ko suggest karta hai. Phir bhi, yeh overbought levels tak pohanch gaya hai lagbhag 70.00 par, jo corrective pullback ke chances ko barha deta hai. Upside par, 1.3140 ke do-saal ke high par Pound Sterling bulls ke liye key resistance zone hoga.
EUR Fundamental Aspects
Euro 20 European Union countries ke liye currency hai jo Eurozone ka hissa hain. Yeh duniya ki doosri sabse heavily traded currency hai US Dollar ke baad. 2022 mein, yeh sab foreign exchange transactions ka 31% tha, aur iska average daily turnover $2.2 trillion se zyada tha. EUR/USD duniya ka sabse heavily traded currency pair hai, jo sab transactions ka takreeban 30% hai, is ke baad EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) aur EUR/AUD (2%) hain.
European Central Bank (ECB) Frankfurt, Germany mein Eurozone ke liye reserve bank hai. ECB interest rates set karta hai aur monetary policy ko manage karta hai. ECB ka primary mandate price stability ko maintain karna hai, jo ya to inflation ko control karna ya growth ko stimulate karna hota hai. Iska primary tool interest rates ko barhane ya kam karne ka hota hai. Relatively high interest rates – ya higher rates ki umeed – usually Euro ke liye beneficial hoti hai aur vice versa. ECB Governing Council monetary policy decisions meetings mein lete hain jo saal mein aath dafa hoti hain. Decisions Eurozone ke national banks ke heads aur chay permanent members, including ECB President, Christine Lagarde, karte hain.
Eurozone inflation data, jo Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) se measure hota hai, Euro ke liye ek important econometric hai. Agar inflation expected se zyada barhti hai, khaaskar agar yeh ECB ke 2% target se upar ho, to ECB ko interest rates barhane par majboor karti hai taake isay control mein rakha ja sake. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts usually Euro ke liye faidamand hotay hain, kyun ke yeh region ko global investors ke liye apna paisa rakhne ke liye zyada attractive banata hai.
Data releases economy ki sehat ko gauge karte hain aur Euro par asar dal sakte hain. GDP, Manufacturing aur Services PMIs, employment, aur consumer sentiment surveys jaise indicators currency ki direction ko influence kar sakte hain. Ek strong economy Euro ke liye acha hota hai. Na sirf yeh zyada foreign investment ko attract kar sakta hai balke ECB ko interest rates barhane par encourage kar sakta hai, jo directly Euro ko mazboot karega. Warna, agar economic data kamzor hota hai, to Euro ke girne ke chances hotay hain. Euro area ki char badi economies (Germany, France, Italy aur Spain) ke liye economic data khaaskar significant hota hai, kyun ke yeh Eurozone ke economy ka 75% banti hain.
Euro ke liye ek aur significant data release Trade Balance hai. Yeh indicator kisi country ke exports se kamayi hui earning aur imports par kharchi gayi raqam ke darmiyan difference ko measure karta hai kisi bhi given period ke liye. Agar ek country highly sought-after exports produce karti hai to iski currency ki value barh sakti hai purely foreign buyers ke demand se jo yeh goods khareedna chahte hain. Isliye, ek positive net Trade Balance currency ko mazboot banata hai aur negative balance ke liye vice versa.
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