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Top 5 Commodities to Watch in August 2024
August mein commodities market aik dilchasp jagah banay hue hai dekhne ke liye. Commodities financial markets mein aik aham kirdar ada karti hain, ye aik aisa asset class hai jo portfolio mein diversification laya jata hai, inflation ke khilaf aik hedge ka kaam karta hai, aur speculation aur investment ke maqsad ke liye istemal hota hai.
Gold ke record highs se lekar oil aur copper ki qeematon mein nichli satah par chalne tak, FP Markets Research Team ne paanch qabil-e-zikr commodities ikatthi ki hain, jo ke is maheenay aapki watchlist mein honi chahiyein.
Gold
Gold ki qeemat US dollar ke muqablay mein (ticker: XAU/USD) aik bohot dekhi janay wali precious metal hai, aur bilkul theek hi hai. Year to date, is qeemat mein +19% ka izafa hua hai, aur 2023 mein ye izafa +13% tak pohnch gaya tha. July mein bhi ye precious metal aik aur record high $2,483 ko chune mein kamiyab raha, aur ye ainday maheenon mein mazeed outperform kar sakta hai.
US Federal Reserve (Fed) ke expected hai ke wo apne Fed funds target range ko September mein kum karne ka aaghaaz karega, aur US Treasury yields aur US dollar (USD) ne haal hi mein aik strong sell-off dikhayi hai, mutamadi price pressures ke bawajood jo ke US mein hain, aur geopolitical risks ke bawajood, gold ainday maheenon mein mazeed bulandi ko chhoo sakta hai.
Yellow metal ke future performance par apna tajzia dete hue, US investment management firm VanEck ne kaha: 'Mojooda macroeconomic aur geopolitical environment ko dekhte hue […] hum ye samajhte hain ke gold ke qeemat apne inflation-adjusted highs of $2,800 per ounce ko qareeb aye waqt mein chhoo sakti hai'.
Is market mein resistance limited hai, lekin upside momentum noticeable taur par slow hua hai. February aur April ke darmiyan strong upmove ko note karain (black rectangle) aur iska muqabla ainday maheenon se karein (red ascending channel); humein koi technical indicator zarurat nahi ke ye dikhayein ke recent maheenon mein buying mein kami ayi hai.
Magar, uptrend ab bhi qayam hai, aur naye all-time highs aik mamooli baat ban gayi hai. Iske ilawa, $2,483 se recent downmove ab tak koi meaningful kuch register karne mein nakam raha, jo ke ye suggest karta hai ke selling kamzor hai aur shayad buyers ainday aik aur leg higher ke liye tayyar hain.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil
USD ke muqablay mein, WTI oil ne July ke aaghaz mein $84.49 ke high tak pohnch kar poor result diya hai. Oil ne pichlay haftay apna choutha lagatar loss record kiya (late 2023 ke baad se sabse lambay losing streak), -3% neeche gir gaya, jo ke June ke lows $72.43 ke qareeb aagya. Year to date, halan ke oil ab bhi positive territory mein hai magar behtareen satah se kafi dur hai (+3.9%).
Global fuel demand ke kamzor honay aur US, Europe aur Asia se frail manufacturing data ne oil prices ke liye acchi khabar nahi di hai. Asia se crude oil demand July mein do saal ke sabse kam satah par tha; China ka fuel import demand saal ke pehle hissay mein -10% se zyada neeche tha. Lekin, Middle East mein geopolitical tensions bhi aik fikar ka maqam hai. Oil prices pichlay budh ko Middle East tensions ke barhtay hue mazeed barh gaye jab ke Hamas ke political leader ke Iran ke doran qatal par usi waqt tensions barh gayin.
Overall, oil ki tasveer optimistic nahi hai. Ye highlight karta hai ke is maheenay sellers ko is market mein dominance ka imkaan hai, June ke lows targeted hain aur December 2023 ke low $67.74 ka aik mumkinah target.
$81.26 aur $79.92 ke darmiyan resistance area ko chhod kar, support ab price action ko welcome karne ke liye bas thodi doori par hai $72.69 par. Ye strong downside push ke baad aata hai jo ke last week ke doosray hisay mein aaya. Agar price is support se aagay barhta hai, to thoda support dikhayi deta hai $68.65 tak jab ke $72.69 aur $68.65 ke darmiyan ke support levels consume ho chuki hain.
Copper
Copper, aik widely traded base metal jo ke USD ke against trade hota hai (ticker: XCU/USD), year to date +6.2% tak barh chuka hai, magar ye apne record highs $5.19 ke muqablay mein -20% neeche hai.
China ke economic growth (Gross Domestic Product [GDP] se measure hoti hai) Q2 24 mein expected se kamzor rahi, jo ke largely global trade restrictions ke barhne se mutasir hui. China se copper imports slow ho gayi hain kyunki mulk apne stalling property aur industrial sectors se nimat raha hai. Ye copper ki qeemat par asar dalta hai kyun ke China duniya ki +50% se zyada copper ki demand ke liye zimmedar hai.
May is saal se copper ki qeemat USD ke muqablay mein neeche aayi hai, jo ke supports ko relative ease ke sath clear karte hue aayi. Price action bhi aik descending channel mein hai, jo ke $5.19 aur $4.43 ke high aur low se liya gaya hai. Technically, chart mazeed selling ke liye room dikhata hai jo ke support $3.96 tak hai, jo ke channel support aur trendline support ke sath complement hota hai, jo ke $3.51 ke low se extend hota hai.
Aluminium
Aluminium jo ke USD ke muqablay mein trade hota hai (ticker: XAL/USD) ne May ke end mein $2,800 ke high par topping out hone ke baad decline kiya hai, aur highs se -20% neeche gir gaya hai. Ye girawat largely China se demand concerns ke chalte hue aayi hai, jo ke aluminium ka sabse bara producer aur consumer hai. US se soft manufacturing data ne buyer sentiment ko aur zyada down kiya hai, jo ke base metal ke price par mazeed pressure dal raha hai.
US aur doosray developed countries se kamzor demand ke bawajood, China ke overproduction ne supply mein surplus paida kar diya hai.
Chart studies ke mutabiq, aluminium ki qeemat USD ke hawalay se May mein high of $2,800 se neeche gir gayi hai.
Price ne recently trendline support ko jo ke $2,110 ke low se li gayi thi, ke neeche break kiya aur ascending line ke underside ko retest kiya jise ab resistance ban gaya hai. Jo cheez technical analysts ke liye dilchasp ho sakti hai wo ye hai ke head and shoulders top pattern (head at $2,800) jo ke mid-July mein complete hui thi (neckline breached). Price ne abhi tak pattern ka profit objective $2,131 tak nahi pohncha, isliye base metal ke liye is maheenay aur underperformance dekhi ja sakti hai.
Cocoa
USD ke muqablay mein, Cocoa ne 2024 ke aaghaz mein strong gains dekhi thi, record highs $11,635 tak barh gayi thi April mein. Spirited start ke bawajood, soft commodity ki demand kamzor hui hai, jo ke un highs se -40% neeche gir gayi hai.
Cocoa ki qeemat mein girawat ke kaafi factors hain, jin mein demand concerns, unfavourable weather conditions, diseases, fertiliser shortages, aur ageing trees shamil hain. Ye factors do sabse baray Cocoa producers, Ivory Coast aur Ghana, ke disappointing Cocoa output se mutasir hui hai, jo ke duniya ki +50% se zyada production ke zimmedar hain.
USD ke muqablay mein, Cocoa ne bearish tone zahir ki hai. Support between $6,554 aur $6,847 ek dilchasp area ban sakta hai traders aur investors ke liye. Dilchasp baat ye hai ke doosri test area ko enough buying interest dikhayi di ke wo $10,197 ke high tak pohnch gayi (numbered 1). Magar, area mein wapis aane par, buying lacklustre rahi, jo ke bas $8,063 ke high tak pohnch gayi (numbered 2). Ye support par aik bold question mark laga deti hai aur suggest karti hai ke aane walay waqt mein shayad break lower target support par pohnchne ke liye aasani se chhoo sake jo ke $5,794 par hai.
