Introduction
Dosto ayin yae haqeeqat ka saamna karain koi poochnay wala nahi hai ke' yahan sab hungama aarai kya hai bani noo insaan sadiiyon se tijarti qader ke aik zareya ke tor par sonay ke sehar mein mubtala hai. muashi aur siyasi inteshaar se qata nazar, yeh baat bilkul wazeh hai ke koi aur shai is qader darina aetmaad ke record par fakhr nahi karti." mehfooz panah gaahon ka asasa" samjha jata hai, qudrati afaat, jangoo, maliyati policy mein tabdeeli, afraat zar, ya kisi bhi terhan ki deegar hungama aarai ke mushkil waqt mein sona sarmaya karon ke liye sab se ziyada appeal karta hai .
Supply and demand
kisi bhi shai ki terhan, sonay ko talabb aur rasad mein tabdeeli ke zariye muntaqil kya ja sakta hai. maang mein kami ka matlab qeemat mein kami hai, jab ke talabb mein izafah qeemat mein izafay ka baais banay ga. is ke bar aks supply hoti hai. supply jitni ziyada hogi - qeemat jitni kam hogi, aur supply jitni kam hogi - itni hi qeematein aasman ko chhoyin gi .
Economic Data
chunkay sonay ki tijarat Amrici dollar mein hoti hai, is liye yeh currency ke bherne aur girnay se bhi mutasir hota hai. dono ke darmiyan ulta talluq ki wajah se Amrici dollar ki mazbooti sonay ki qeemat ko neechay dhakel sakti hai. jab dollar mazboot hota hai, log is mein sarmaya kaari karte hain, aur is ke bar aks sood ki shrhon ko mad e nazar rakhtay hue, angothay ka usool mandarja zail hai : jab sharah sood kam hoti hai, naqad aur bandz kam munafe faraham karte hain. yeh sarmaya karon ko mutabadil tareeqay talaash karne par majboor karta hai ( aur sona wasee pemanay par matloob ikhtiyarat mein se aik ban jata hai ). is ke bar aks, jab sharah sood ziyada hoti hai, sarmaya car naqad aur bandz mein mazboot munafe haasil kar satke hain, is liye sonay ki' koi zaroorat nahi' hai .
Inflation
agarchay yeh sunehri usool nahi hai ( pan ka iradah hai ), afraat zar ki aala satah sonay ki qeematon ko buland karti hai, jab ke nichli sthon ka wazan sonay par hota hai. aisa kyun? theek hai, afraat zar taqreeban hamesha maeeshat ke bherne ki alamat hoti hai, aisi soorat mein federal reserves ke liye raqam ki farahmi ko barhana aam baat hai. yeh mustaqbil mein kharidari ki qader ko barqarar rakhnay walay asason ko banata hai ( jaisay sona ) – ziyada mehanga hota hai. aur doosri taraf .
Uncertainty
siyasi, maliyati ya maholiyati ghair yakeeni sorat e haal ke daur mein, sona – krnsyon ke bar aks – ke bekar honay ka koi khatrah nahi hai. is ke bajaye, yeh aik" mehfooz panah gaah" ban jata hai. zehen mein rakhnay ke liye kya danishmandi hai : ghair yakeeni sorat e haal ki pemaiesh karna mushkil hai. mandarja baala tamam awamil ke bar aks, yeh aik nafsiati aur sarmaya car par munhasir Ansar hai .
Where do we go from here?
munsifana tor par, sonay ki tijarat ka koi sahih tareeqa nahi hai, kyunkay wahan kisi bhi shai ya currency ki tijarat ka koi sahih tareeqa nahi hai. bahar haal, sonay ki tijarat karne se pehlay ghhor karne ke liye yahan kuch cheeze hain :
Short-Term Strategy
sonay ke liye aik classic qaleel mudti tijarti hikmat e amli mutharrak ost cross over ka istemaal kar sakti hai. aik tajir khareedna chahta hai jab aik mukhtasir muddat ki harkat ost taweel mudti harkat pazeeri ost se tajawaz kar jati hai. jab is ke bar aks hota hai to woh baichnay ka intikhab kar sakta hai .
Long-Term Strategy
jab taweel mudti sonay ki tijarat ki baat aati hai, to tamam tar tawajah bunyadi baton par markooz hoti hai, jaisay sharah sood ki satah. is terhan, jab haqeeqi pedawar sonay ki qeematon ke liye tareekhi tor par taied shuda miyaar se kam hoti hai, to yeh waqt ho sakta hai ke kharidne ke mauqa par ghhor kya jaye. aur is ke bar aks - jab haqeeqi pedawar ziyada hoti hai, to yeh is baat ki alamat ho sakti hai ke farokht karne ka waqt agaya hai .
Dosto ayin yae haqeeqat ka saamna karain koi poochnay wala nahi hai ke' yahan sab hungama aarai kya hai bani noo insaan sadiiyon se tijarti qader ke aik zareya ke tor par sonay ke sehar mein mubtala hai. muashi aur siyasi inteshaar se qata nazar, yeh baat bilkul wazeh hai ke koi aur shai is qader darina aetmaad ke record par fakhr nahi karti." mehfooz panah gaahon ka asasa" samjha jata hai, qudrati afaat, jangoo, maliyati policy mein tabdeeli, afraat zar, ya kisi bhi terhan ki deegar hungama aarai ke mushkil waqt mein sona sarmaya karon ke liye sab se ziyada appeal karta hai .
Supply and demand
kisi bhi shai ki terhan, sonay ko talabb aur rasad mein tabdeeli ke zariye muntaqil kya ja sakta hai. maang mein kami ka matlab qeemat mein kami hai, jab ke talabb mein izafah qeemat mein izafay ka baais banay ga. is ke bar aks supply hoti hai. supply jitni ziyada hogi - qeemat jitni kam hogi, aur supply jitni kam hogi - itni hi qeematein aasman ko chhoyin gi .
Economic Data
chunkay sonay ki tijarat Amrici dollar mein hoti hai, is liye yeh currency ke bherne aur girnay se bhi mutasir hota hai. dono ke darmiyan ulta talluq ki wajah se Amrici dollar ki mazbooti sonay ki qeemat ko neechay dhakel sakti hai. jab dollar mazboot hota hai, log is mein sarmaya kaari karte hain, aur is ke bar aks sood ki shrhon ko mad e nazar rakhtay hue, angothay ka usool mandarja zail hai : jab sharah sood kam hoti hai, naqad aur bandz kam munafe faraham karte hain. yeh sarmaya karon ko mutabadil tareeqay talaash karne par majboor karta hai ( aur sona wasee pemanay par matloob ikhtiyarat mein se aik ban jata hai ). is ke bar aks, jab sharah sood ziyada hoti hai, sarmaya car naqad aur bandz mein mazboot munafe haasil kar satke hain, is liye sonay ki' koi zaroorat nahi' hai .
Inflation
agarchay yeh sunehri usool nahi hai ( pan ka iradah hai ), afraat zar ki aala satah sonay ki qeematon ko buland karti hai, jab ke nichli sthon ka wazan sonay par hota hai. aisa kyun? theek hai, afraat zar taqreeban hamesha maeeshat ke bherne ki alamat hoti hai, aisi soorat mein federal reserves ke liye raqam ki farahmi ko barhana aam baat hai. yeh mustaqbil mein kharidari ki qader ko barqarar rakhnay walay asason ko banata hai ( jaisay sona ) – ziyada mehanga hota hai. aur doosri taraf .
Uncertainty
siyasi, maliyati ya maholiyati ghair yakeeni sorat e haal ke daur mein, sona – krnsyon ke bar aks – ke bekar honay ka koi khatrah nahi hai. is ke bajaye, yeh aik" mehfooz panah gaah" ban jata hai. zehen mein rakhnay ke liye kya danishmandi hai : ghair yakeeni sorat e haal ki pemaiesh karna mushkil hai. mandarja baala tamam awamil ke bar aks, yeh aik nafsiati aur sarmaya car par munhasir Ansar hai .
Where do we go from here?
munsifana tor par, sonay ki tijarat ka koi sahih tareeqa nahi hai, kyunkay wahan kisi bhi shai ya currency ki tijarat ka koi sahih tareeqa nahi hai. bahar haal, sonay ki tijarat karne se pehlay ghhor karne ke liye yahan kuch cheeze hain :
Short-Term Strategy
sonay ke liye aik classic qaleel mudti tijarti hikmat e amli mutharrak ost cross over ka istemaal kar sakti hai. aik tajir khareedna chahta hai jab aik mukhtasir muddat ki harkat ost taweel mudti harkat pazeeri ost se tajawaz kar jati hai. jab is ke bar aks hota hai to woh baichnay ka intikhab kar sakta hai .
Long-Term Strategy
jab taweel mudti sonay ki tijarat ki baat aati hai, to tamam tar tawajah bunyadi baton par markooz hoti hai, jaisay sharah sood ki satah. is terhan, jab haqeeqi pedawar sonay ki qeematon ke liye tareekhi tor par taied shuda miyaar se kam hoti hai, to yeh waqt ho sakta hai ke kharidne ke mauqa par ghhor kya jaye. aur is ke bar aks - jab haqeeqi pedawar ziyada hoti hai, to yeh is baat ki alamat ho sakti hai ke farokht karne ka waqt agaya hai .