Introduction
Jab market ki ost mein se koi aik ( misaal ke tor par, sanati ya naqal o hamal ) pehlay ki barri oonchai se oopar charh jati hai aur doosri ost se pehlay ya is ke baad taqabli pishrft hoti hai, to dow theory is baat ki nishandahi karti hai ke market oopar ki taraf rujhan mein hai, is ke mutabiq maliyati nazriya misaal ke tor par, agar dow jones industrial average ( djia ) darmiyani oonchai tak pahonch jata hai, to yeh pishin goi karna munasib hai ke dow jones transportation average ( djta ) is point ke baad munasib waqt ke andar is ki pairwi kere ga
Recognizing and Understanding the Dow Theory
Charles each dow ki taraf se qaim kardah aik tijarti tareeqa, jis ne edward jones aur charles ke sath mil kar 1896 mein dow jones and company, qaim kya aur aglay saal mein dow jones industrial average ki taraqqi ke liye zimma daar tha. dow ne wall street journal mein shaya honay walay adaryon ki aik series mein –apne maqalay ki wazahat ki, jisay is ne david stock mean ke sath mil kar qaim kya tha. 1
Afsos ki baat yeh hai ke charles dow ka intqaal 1902 mein sun-hwa, aur un ki mout ke nateejay mein, stock market ke baray mein un ka poora nazriya kabhi shaya nahi sun-hwa. bahar haal, dow ke mutadid talba, sathiyon, aur maavnin ne aisi kitaaben likhi hain jo adaryon par mushtamil hain. dow theory mein kuch ahem tareen shraktin darj zail afraad ne ki hain
1. Everything is discounted on the market.
Efficient markets hypothesis ( emh ), jo is baat par zor deta hai ke asasa jaat ki qeematein tamam dastyab maloomat ko mad e nazar rakhti hain, dow theory ki bunyaad rakhti hai. dosray lafzon mein, yeh tareeqa ravayye ki muashiaat ke usoolon ke khilaaf hai .
Market mein afraad ki qeemat kamaai ki salahiyat, musabiqati faida, intizami qabliyat, aur bohat se dosray tahaffuzaat jaisi khususiyaat ki bunyaad par rakhi jati hai. yeh sach hai chahay har shakhs un tamam ya tamam maloomat se waaqif nah ho. is nazriya ki mazeed tshrihat ziyada sakht hain, aur yahan tak ke mustaqbil mein honay walay waqeat ko khatray ki soorat mein riayat di jati hai
2. There are three types of market trends that are most prevalent.
Markitin barray namonon se guzarti hain jo aik saal ya is se ziyada par muheet hoti hain, jaisay bail market ya reechh ki market, misaal ke tor par. un barray rujhanaat ke andar, woh sanwi rujhanaat se guzarte hain, jo aksar barray rujhan ke mukhalif hotay hain. misaal ke tor par, bail market mein aitekaf ya reechh ki manndi mein ؛ yeh sanwi rujhanaat teen hafton se le kar teen mah ke doraniye mein kahin bhi ho satke hain. aakhir mein, aisay chhootey rujhanaat hain jo teen hafton se bhi kam arsay tak bardasht karte hain aur jo ziyada tar market mein shore hotay hain
3. There are three phases to primary trends.
Dow mafroozay ke mutabiq, aik ahem rujhan teen allag allag marahil se guzray ga. bail market ke douran, teen allag allag marahil hotay hain : jama honay ka marhala, awaami shamoliat ka marhala ( jisay barray iqdaam ka marhala bhi kaha jata hai ), aur izafi marhala. inhen bal tarteeb reechh ki manndi mein taqseem ka marhala, awaami shamoliat ka marhala, aur ghabrahat ( ya mayoosi ) ka marhala kaha jata hai
4. Indices Must Confirm Their Relationship With Each Other
Rujhan peda karne ke liye dow index ya market average ke liye aik dosray ki tasdeeq karna zaroori hai. dosray alfaaz mein, aik index par zahir honay walay signals ko dosray index par zahir honay walay signals se mumasil hona chahiye ya un se talluq hona chahiye. aik naye primaray up trained ki tasdeeq aik index se hoti hai, jaisa ke dow jones industrial average, lekin dosra index, jaisa ke s & p 500, bunyadi kami ke rujhan mein rehta hai, taajiron ko yeh nahi samjhna chahiye ke aik naya bunyadi up trained jari hai .
Is maqsad ke liye, dow ne dow jones industrial average ( d jay aayi ae ) aur dow jones transportation average ( d jay tea ae ) par inhisaar kya, jo dono is ne aur is ke shiraakat daaron ne ijaad kiye thay. dow ne yeh qiyaas kya ke, agar karobari halaat dar haqeeqat mazboot thay, jaisa ke djia mein izafah tajweez kar sakta hai, rail roads company ke tamam kamon ke liye maal bardari ke zariye paisa kama rahay hon ge. agar asasa jaat ki qeematein barh rahi theen jab ke rail roads mutasir ho rahay thay, to imkaan tha ke yeh rujhan taweel muddat mein paidaar nahi rahay ga. is ke bar aks bhi sach hai : agar railway munafe bakhash hai lekin market mandi ka saamna kar rahi hai, to koi qabil feham namona nahi hai
5. The trend must be confirmed by volume.
Agar qeemat barray rujhan ki simt ja rahi hai to hajam barhna chahiye. agar qeemat bunyadi rujhan ke khilaaf chal rahi hai to hajam girna chahiye. tijarti hajam mein kami rujhan mein bigaar ki nishandahi karti hai. agar market bail market mein hai, misaal ke tor par, qeemat bherne ke sath hi hajam barhna chahiye, aur sanwi pal back ke douran usay kam hona chahiye. agar kami ke douran hajam mein izafah hona chahiye, to yeh is baat ka ishara ho sakta hai ke rujhan badal raha hai kyunkay market ke ziyada khilari bunyadi asasa par mayoosi ka shikaar hona shuru kar dete hain
6. Trends continue until a definite reversal occurs; otherwise, they continue.
Markazi rujhanaat ke ulat jane ko sanwi rujhanaat ke ulat jane ke liye ghalti se samjha ja sakta hai. yeh bitanay ke koi aasaan tareeqay nahi hain ke aaya reechh ki manndi mein izafah aik oopri rujhan ke aaghaz ki numaindagi karta hai ya aik mukhtasir ree bound jis ke baad is se bhi kam nichli sthin ayen gi. dow mafrooza ahthyat ka mahswara deta hai, is baat par zor deta hai ke mumkina ulat phair ki toseeq ki jaye
Jab market ki ost mein se koi aik ( misaal ke tor par, sanati ya naqal o hamal ) pehlay ki barri oonchai se oopar charh jati hai aur doosri ost se pehlay ya is ke baad taqabli pishrft hoti hai, to dow theory is baat ki nishandahi karti hai ke market oopar ki taraf rujhan mein hai, is ke mutabiq maliyati nazriya misaal ke tor par, agar dow jones industrial average ( djia ) darmiyani oonchai tak pahonch jata hai, to yeh pishin goi karna munasib hai ke dow jones transportation average ( djta ) is point ke baad munasib waqt ke andar is ki pairwi kere ga
Recognizing and Understanding the Dow Theory
Charles each dow ki taraf se qaim kardah aik tijarti tareeqa, jis ne edward jones aur charles ke sath mil kar 1896 mein dow jones and company, qaim kya aur aglay saal mein dow jones industrial average ki taraqqi ke liye zimma daar tha. dow ne wall street journal mein shaya honay walay adaryon ki aik series mein –apne maqalay ki wazahat ki, jisay is ne david stock mean ke sath mil kar qaim kya tha. 1
Afsos ki baat yeh hai ke charles dow ka intqaal 1902 mein sun-hwa, aur un ki mout ke nateejay mein, stock market ke baray mein un ka poora nazriya kabhi shaya nahi sun-hwa. bahar haal, dow ke mutadid talba, sathiyon, aur maavnin ne aisi kitaaben likhi hain jo adaryon par mushtamil hain. dow theory mein kuch ahem tareen shraktin darj zail afraad ne ki hain
1. Everything is discounted on the market.
Efficient markets hypothesis ( emh ), jo is baat par zor deta hai ke asasa jaat ki qeematein tamam dastyab maloomat ko mad e nazar rakhti hain, dow theory ki bunyaad rakhti hai. dosray lafzon mein, yeh tareeqa ravayye ki muashiaat ke usoolon ke khilaaf hai .
Market mein afraad ki qeemat kamaai ki salahiyat, musabiqati faida, intizami qabliyat, aur bohat se dosray tahaffuzaat jaisi khususiyaat ki bunyaad par rakhi jati hai. yeh sach hai chahay har shakhs un tamam ya tamam maloomat se waaqif nah ho. is nazriya ki mazeed tshrihat ziyada sakht hain, aur yahan tak ke mustaqbil mein honay walay waqeat ko khatray ki soorat mein riayat di jati hai
2. There are three types of market trends that are most prevalent.
Markitin barray namonon se guzarti hain jo aik saal ya is se ziyada par muheet hoti hain, jaisay bail market ya reechh ki market, misaal ke tor par. un barray rujhanaat ke andar, woh sanwi rujhanaat se guzarte hain, jo aksar barray rujhan ke mukhalif hotay hain. misaal ke tor par, bail market mein aitekaf ya reechh ki manndi mein ؛ yeh sanwi rujhanaat teen hafton se le kar teen mah ke doraniye mein kahin bhi ho satke hain. aakhir mein, aisay chhootey rujhanaat hain jo teen hafton se bhi kam arsay tak bardasht karte hain aur jo ziyada tar market mein shore hotay hain
3. There are three phases to primary trends.
Dow mafroozay ke mutabiq, aik ahem rujhan teen allag allag marahil se guzray ga. bail market ke douran, teen allag allag marahil hotay hain : jama honay ka marhala, awaami shamoliat ka marhala ( jisay barray iqdaam ka marhala bhi kaha jata hai ), aur izafi marhala. inhen bal tarteeb reechh ki manndi mein taqseem ka marhala, awaami shamoliat ka marhala, aur ghabrahat ( ya mayoosi ) ka marhala kaha jata hai
4. Indices Must Confirm Their Relationship With Each Other
Rujhan peda karne ke liye dow index ya market average ke liye aik dosray ki tasdeeq karna zaroori hai. dosray alfaaz mein, aik index par zahir honay walay signals ko dosray index par zahir honay walay signals se mumasil hona chahiye ya un se talluq hona chahiye. aik naye primaray up trained ki tasdeeq aik index se hoti hai, jaisa ke dow jones industrial average, lekin dosra index, jaisa ke s & p 500, bunyadi kami ke rujhan mein rehta hai, taajiron ko yeh nahi samjhna chahiye ke aik naya bunyadi up trained jari hai .
Is maqsad ke liye, dow ne dow jones industrial average ( d jay aayi ae ) aur dow jones transportation average ( d jay tea ae ) par inhisaar kya, jo dono is ne aur is ke shiraakat daaron ne ijaad kiye thay. dow ne yeh qiyaas kya ke, agar karobari halaat dar haqeeqat mazboot thay, jaisa ke djia mein izafah tajweez kar sakta hai, rail roads company ke tamam kamon ke liye maal bardari ke zariye paisa kama rahay hon ge. agar asasa jaat ki qeematein barh rahi theen jab ke rail roads mutasir ho rahay thay, to imkaan tha ke yeh rujhan taweel muddat mein paidaar nahi rahay ga. is ke bar aks bhi sach hai : agar railway munafe bakhash hai lekin market mandi ka saamna kar rahi hai, to koi qabil feham namona nahi hai
5. The trend must be confirmed by volume.
Agar qeemat barray rujhan ki simt ja rahi hai to hajam barhna chahiye. agar qeemat bunyadi rujhan ke khilaaf chal rahi hai to hajam girna chahiye. tijarti hajam mein kami rujhan mein bigaar ki nishandahi karti hai. agar market bail market mein hai, misaal ke tor par, qeemat bherne ke sath hi hajam barhna chahiye, aur sanwi pal back ke douran usay kam hona chahiye. agar kami ke douran hajam mein izafah hona chahiye, to yeh is baat ka ishara ho sakta hai ke rujhan badal raha hai kyunkay market ke ziyada khilari bunyadi asasa par mayoosi ka shikaar hona shuru kar dete hain
6. Trends continue until a definite reversal occurs; otherwise, they continue.
Markazi rujhanaat ke ulat jane ko sanwi rujhanaat ke ulat jane ke liye ghalti se samjha ja sakta hai. yeh bitanay ke koi aasaan tareeqay nahi hain ke aaya reechh ki manndi mein izafah aik oopri rujhan ke aaghaz ki numaindagi karta hai ya aik mukhtasir ree bound jis ke baad is se bhi kam nichli sthin ayen gi. dow mafrooza ahthyat ka mahswara deta hai, is baat par zor deta hai ke mumkina ulat phair ki toseeq ki jaye