what is the elliott wave theory :

INTRODUCTION TO ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY :




Elliott Wave Theory forex trading mein istemal hone wala aik popular technical analysis tool hai jo patterns pehchanne aur mustaqbil ke price movements ka tashkeel karti hai. Is theory ka naam Ralph Nelson Elliott ke naam par hai, aur iske mutabik market prices repetitive wave patterns mein move karti hai. Elliott ke mutabik, ye waves investor psychology par depend karti hai aur inko do categories mein classify kiya jaa sakta hai: impulse waves aur corrective waves.

Impulse wave mukhtasar trend ki taraf ka direction represent karti hai. Ismein 1, 2, 3, 4 aur 5 sub-waves hote hain. Waves 1, 3 aur 5 trend ki taraf move karte hain, jabki waves 2 aur 4 trend ke khilaf corrective waves hote hain. Impulse waves strong price movement ke saath hote hain aur aksar trending markets mein dekhe jaate hain.

Dusri taraf, corrective waves countertrend moves hote hain jo impulse wave ki trend ko correct karte hain. Ye waves aam taur par A, B aur C letters se label kiye jaate hain. Corrective waves simple corrections jaise zigzags aur flats ke form mein aa sakte hain ya fir complex corrections jaise triangles aur double ya triple combinations ke form mein bhi aa sakte hain.




THE PRINCIPLE OF WAVE DEGREE :




Elliott Wave Theory mein wave degree ka concept bhi introduce kiya gaya hai, jo waves ki size ya magnitude ko refer karta hai. Ye degree classification overall pattern ke andar larger aur smaller waves mein differentiation karne ke liye istemal hoti hai. Degree numerical aur letter combination (jaise 1, 2, 3 ya A, B, C) ke zariye denote ki jaati hai.

Sabse highest degree wave ko Grand Supercycle kehte hai, jo kai saal taak chalta hai. Iske baad Supercycle, Cycle, Primary, Intermediate, Minor, Minute aur sabse chhote degree wave, Sub-Minute aate hain. Wave degree ko samajhna trading ke decisions mein madadgar hota hai kyunki ye traders ko pattern ka context samajhne aur uski potential duration aur significance ko determine karne mein madad karta hai.




FIBONACCI RATIOS AND ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY :




Elliott Wave Theory ka ek aur important aspect hai Fibonacci ratios ka istemal price targets aur wave relationships tay karne ke liye. Elliott ne observe kiya hai ki waves aksar specific Fibonacci ratios jaise 0.382, 0.50 aur 0.618 ka follow karte hain.

Ye ratios corrective waves ki retracement ya impulse waves ki extension ko measure karne ke liye istemal kiye ja sakte hain. For example, aam tor par corrective wave ke liye ek common retracement level 0.618 Fibonacci ratio hai, jo suggest karta hai ki retracement 61.8% previous impulse wave ka hota hai.

Fibonacci ratios ko wave pattern ka completion ke liye potential price targets tay karne ke liye bhi istemal kiya jata hai. Traders ek completed wave ka distance measure kar sakte hain aur usko Fibonacci ratios ka istemal karke forward project kar sakte hain, jisse potential future price levels tay kiye ja sakte hain.




RULES AND GUIDELINES OF ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS :




Elliott Wave Theory bilkul subjective nahi hai aur iske specific rules aur guidelines ko follow karna zaroori hota hai. Kuch key rules mein se kuch include hain:

Wave 2 Wave 1 ke 100% se zyada retrace nahi kar sakta hai.

Wave 3 Waves 1, 3 aur 5 mein se sabse chhota wave nahi ho sakta hai.

Wave 4 Wave 1 ya Wave 3 ki price territory ko overlap nahi kar sakta hai.

In rules ke alawa, Elliott Wave analysis wave proportions aur time relationships par bhi guidelines provide karti hai. For example, Wave 3 aam taur par sabse strong hota hai aur Wave 1 ki length se zyada extend hota hai. Wave 4 aam tor par Wave 3 ka around 38.2% retrace karta hai.




PRACTICAL APPLICATION OF ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY IN FOREX TRADING :




Elliott Wave Theory ki amli istemal forex trading mein wave patterns pehchanne aur unhe trading decisions ke liye istemal karne se hoti hai. Traders Elliott Wave analysis ka istemal karke prevailing trend ko determine kar sakte hain aur potential price reversals ka anuman laga sakte hain.

Maslan, agar ek trader ko pata chalta hai ki ek complete five-wave pattern (impulse wave) ho gaya hai, toh woh opposite direction mein correction ki umeed kar sakta hai. Isse trade mein dakhil hone ka mauka milta hai, umeed ke sath ki price ulta hokar larger trend ke direction mein aage badhegi.

Elliott Wave analysis ka istemal profit targets aur stop-loss levels tay karne ke liye bhi kiya ja sakta hai. Traders Fibonacci ratios ka istemal karke waves ki potential extension ki measurement kar sakte hain aur support aur resistance areas ko pata kar sakte hain, jahan par price ulta hone ka tajassus hai. Isse sahi dakhil aur nikalne ke points tay karne mein madad milti hai.

Conclusion mein, Elliott Wave Theory forex traders dwara wave patterns ko pehchanne aur future price movements ko forecast karne ke liye ek takatwar tool hai. Alag-alag wave degrees, Fibonacci ratios, qawaid aur usoolon ko samajhkar traders Elliott Wave analysis ko amli tareeke se istemal karke apne trading decisions ko behtar banate hain. Halaanki, zaroori hai dhyan dena ki jaise ki dusre technical analysis tools, Elliott Wave Theory bhi asliyat mein asaadharan nahi hai aur dusre analysis techniques aur risk management strategies ke sath istemal karna chahiye.

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Elliott Wave Forex Theory

Har trader samajhta hai ke financial assets ki price mein changes achi profit laa sakti hain lekin serious loss bhi ho sakte hain. Isliye, future market movements ka durust andaza lagana, jo sahi trading faislay karne mein madad deta hai, itna ahem hai. Technical analysis ke tools, jo charts par patterns pehchanne mein madad karte hain, isme madadgar hotay hain.
Elliott Waves ek mashhoor technical analysis ka tareeqa hai jo tajiron ko charts par dohraayi jaane wali trends ko follow karne aur exchange-traded assets ke future movements ke baare mein andaza lagane mein madad karta hai. Ye tareeqa is theory par mabni hai ke market trends patterns follow karte hain jo jamaat ke rawaiyye ka nataaja hain.
Wave theory ki bunyad 1930s mein American financier Ralph Elliott ne rakhi. In total, unhone 13 wave models nikale jo unhone mutala karte hue charts par tajwez kiye. Is case mein, yeh sirf form ki dohrayi par tha, ke amplitude ya time intervals nahi. Is theory ki mathematic bunyad Fibonacci numbers ki sequence thi, aur iski mukhtasar description pehle ek 18-page pamphlet "The Wave Principle" mein publish hui.
Kai dacades tak, kisi ne bhi zyada dhyan nahi diya Elliott waves ko aur inhe amal mein nahi laya. Sirf 70s mein inki development aur popularization mein Robert Prechter aur Al**** Frost ne lagaya, tab yeh method tajiron mein phela.
Shuruwat mein, ye tool sirf stock market par focus tha lekin baad mein ise almost kisi bhi stock asset, jisme ab popular cryptocurrencies bhi shamil hain, mein istemal hone laga.

Elliott Waves Ki Basis Rules

Analysis mein, koi bhi zyada se zyada expert trader aankhon se chart par 5 aur 3 waves ki trends ko pehchan sakta hai. Mool masla mojoodi structure ki tafseel ki analysis ki subjectivity hai, kyun ke har dekhnay wala waves ko size, slope angle, waghera ke lehaz se alag dekhta hai.
Is aspect ko saaf karne ke liye, Elliott aur baad mein unke raaste mein chalne wale theorists ne kuch kaiday banaye hain jo chart par waves ki bunyadi pattern ko pehchanne mein madad karte hain:

1. Dusri wave pehli wave ke asal mark se neeche nahi honi chahiye.
2. Chouthi wave doosri wave ke price territory mein nahi ja sakti.
3. Teesri wave pehli wave ke extreme mark se ooper khatam honi chahiye. Iske ilawa, yeh teeno motive waves mein se sab se chhoti nahi honi chahiye. Aksar isme se yeh sabse lambi hoti hai.
4. Paanchvi wave teesri wave se ooper khatam honi chahiye.
5. 8-wave structure mein rollback mein sirf 3 waves shamil ho sakti hain - sirf ABC, DE, waghera nahi (lekin doosre models mein yeh qubool hai).
6. Uthte hue movement mein teeno driving waves mein se ek doosre do se lambi honi chahiye.
7. ABC corrective cycle ka end taqreeban wave 4 ke end ya seedha neeche hona chahiye.

Motive movements ke bilkul mukhalif hote hue, jo hamesha 5 waves se milti hain aur taqreeban mawafiq figures bana leti hain, corrective movements mein alag alag forms ke structures khare ho sakte hain aur isme 3 se zyada waves shamil ho sakti hain.
Chaliye dekhein corrective waves ke sabse mashhoor patterns ko:

• Flat ABC corrective waves doosri conditional horizontal lines se bani ek side mein chalti hai. Waves ki lambai ya toh takreeban barabar hoti hai, ya B A aur C se zyada lambi hoti hai. Agar correction ka channel horizontal nahi, lekin inclined hai (impulse movement ke khilaf), toh 'flag' pattern banta hai, jo trend ki jari rahein par ishara karta hai.
• Triangle 5 waves (ABCDE) se bana corrective pattern hai jo inclined narrowing channel mein chalti hai, jo motive trend ke khilaf hota hai. Aam taur par, aisi figures forming structure mein doosri se aakhri movement hoti hain, aur inka exit in the direction of the previous movement hota hai.
• Zigzag Correction zigzag ke form mein hoti hai jo motive trend ke khilaf tezi se hoti hai. Wave B aam taur par doosre dono waves se chhoti hoti hai, aur wave C A ki length ka 150-250% tak pohanch sakta hai. Jitni tezi se pullback hoti hai (B), utna zyada mumkin hai ke C elongated hogi. Kai cases mein zigzag correction 'Head and Shoulders' pattern ko chart par banane mein hissa leti hai, jisme right shoulder ko form karti hai. Motive movement ke waves 3, 4, aur 5 left shoulder ke liye zimmedar hote hain.
• Complex Kayi mashhoor types ke wave corrections ke combination ko complex kehte hain. Agar combination double hai, toh iske waves ko W, X, aur Y ke symbols se denote kiya jata hai. Agar corrective structure triple hai, toh W, X, Y, XX, aur Z ke symbols istemal hote hain.

Elliott Wave Theory Ka Indicators Ka Sath Istemal

Elliott Wave Patterns ko chart par behtar taur par pehchanne ke liye, madadgar indicators ka istemal kiya ja sakta hai. Misal ke tor par, Moving Average (MA) aksar retracement movement ke end ko pehchanne mein madad karta hai, kyun ke yeh dynamic support ya resistance ke tor par kaam karta hai.

• Moving Average indicator 4-hour time frame aur period 30 ke saath kaam karta hai.
• MA 250, 200, aur 150 bhi 1-hour time frame mein behtar taur par kaam karte hain.

Oscillators doosra mashhoor indicator type hain jo Elliott Wave Theory ke saath istemal hotay hain. Ye convergence aur divergence ko track karte hain, motive formation ki mukammal hone ko tasdeeq karte hain. Ek option ho sakta hai MACD indicator, lekin Elliott Wave Oscillator bhi hai jo waves ke saath kaam karne ke liye khaas taur par tune kiya gaya hai.
Is par, highest peak hamesha teesre wave ke end ke mutabiq hota hai ascending movement mein. Aur jab histogram negative se positive area mein jata hai, toh ye ek cycle mukammal hone ya naye cycle ki shuruwat hone ka ishara karta hai. Is oscillator mein teesri aur paanchvi wave ke darmiyan aksar convergence hoti hai.

Practically Istemal

Jab Elliott Wave Theory ko trading positions mein dakhil hone ke liye istemal kia jata hai, toh sab se wazeh signal hai ke trend reverse hone wale point se motive movement ka banna.
Agar ye uptrend hai, toh position mein dakhil hone ka ek tareeqa teen impulse waves mein se kisi mein kiya jata hai. Is case mein do tareeqay istemal ho saktay hain:

• Conservative ek long position wahi pe khuli hoti hai jab corrective movement wave 5 ke end ke level pe mukammal ho jata hai. Pehli aur doosri wave ke shuruat aur end se ek signal line draw ki jati hai, jismein rate ke wapas jane pe transaction band hoti hai. Dobarah khulta hai ek naye maximum ke ooper after signal line ki correction.
• Moderate initial conditions order place karne ke liye conservative method ke mutabiq hoti hain, lekin buy order wave B ke end ke level pe hota hai. Agar zarurat ho toh trade band hoti hai, aur signal line ki correction hoti hai.

Kabhi-kabhi aggressive method ka istemal bhi hota hai, jo position mein dakhil hone ka tareeqa hota hai jab signal line ko todi jati hai. Aisa hadsa naye impulse model banne ki nishani samjha jata hai.

Elliott Waves Trading Strategy

Wave analysis mainly professional traders mein istemal hoti hai trading mein. Beginners ek asan strategy ko pasand karte hain, isliye. Kaafi simple aur seedhi wave analysis ko amal mein lana kaafi mushkil hai, kyun ke haqeeqat mein, haqeeqat mein, chart par, real-time mein, market ka cycle kaunsa stage mein hai, yeh pehchanna kaafi mushkil hai. Is strategy ko trading par focus karne wale log hi seekhna chahiye agar aap market mein serious hain. Behtar hai ke aap is strategy ko kuch indicators ke saath jorain.

For example:

• MACD
• Moving Averages
• Fibonacci Retracement

Hamare khayal mein, wave analysis ko Fibonacci grid aur extension ke saath combine karne se acha synergy mil sakta hai.
Elliott Waves trading theory Fibonacci numbers ke saath mawafiq hai. Hamare aapko batane wale ek strategy kaafi mashhoor aur iska amal kuch log is misal ke taur par karte hain. Aghaz mein, hume bina strong corrections ke girne ke baad growing momentum dhoondhna hai.
Phir hume Fibonacci grid stretch karna hai aur intezaar karna hai ke correction kisi level par ho. Trade us level pe ya bullish candle bannay ke baad jab price us level se rebound kare, tab khula ja sakta hai.
Hamare case mein, price ne seedha level 50 se rebound kiya. Trade is level se khula hota. Zayada cautious aur risk se bachne wale traders wo position open kar sakte hain jab pehli wave ka maximum ho. Stop-Loss doosri wave ke minimum ke peechay set hota hai.
Phir hamare samne yeh sawaal aata hai: kholi gayi trade ko kitna waqt rakhna chahiye? Humain us waqt ka intezaar karna chahiye jab paanchvi wave ban rahi hai, aur price teesri wave ke peak tak pohanchti hai. Hum advise karte hain ke aap isey hisson mein bandhain, jo ahem levels ke qareeb hote hain, jo pehchane ja sakte hain, lekin iske bare mein doosri baar. Is k baad sab waves ko mark karte hain.

Elliott Wave Theory ke Drawbacks

Jab bhi ke Elliott waves ko technical analysis mein kaafi istemal hota hai, woh ek nazariya hai zyada se zyada ke trading indicator ke bajaye. Robert Prechter bhi, jinhon ne wave theory ko dobara zindagi di thi, ne kaha ke yeh sirf markets ke cyclic rawaiye ki tasdeeq ka ek tareeqa hai, lekin ek forecast ka tareeqa nahi hai.
Elliott Waves ko aksar subjectivity ke liye criticize kiya jata hai kyun ke har dekhnay wala chart par formations ko apne taur par dekhta hai. Is natijay mein, ek exchange-traded asset ki keemat mein anay wale tabdiliyon ka pesh goi asal wave patterns ke ghalt visualization ke bais ho sakti hai.
Kuch isay kehte hain ke Elliott waves ko pehle se bane hue charts par draw karna kaafi asaan hai, lekin jab aap anay wale model ko pehchanne ki koshish karte hain toh waves ke boundaries ko uniquely identify karna mushkil hai. Isse is theory ko amal mein lana practically mushkil hai, khaas kar entry aur exit points ka chayan karne ke liye.
Kuch ye kehte hain ke wave theory ka istemal nuksan la sakti hai munafa nahi, kyun ke isme bohot saari nuances hain jo ke experienced traders bhi poori tarah se nahi le sakte. Ek aur nuksan Elliott Wave Theory ka yeh hai ke isko trading mein safalta se istemal karne ke liye ise lamba arsa tak padhna zaruri hai.
Aam tor par mashhoor indicators ke mukable, Elliott Waves ko kuch ghantay ya dinon mein nahi seekha ja sakta. Is technique ko padhne wale traders ke mutabiq, isko puri tarah se samajhna mahinon ya saalon tak ka waqt le sakta hai.
Upar diye gaye points ko madde nazar rakhte hue, hum ye keh sakte hain ke wave theory ko trading mein istemal kiya ja sakta hai, lekin sirf technical analysis ke doosre instruments ke saath mila kar. Aur agar hum beginner traders ki baat karein, toh unhein sirf asan aur wazeh indicators ki talash karni chahiye.

Conclusion

Amum-tan, har ek Elliott Wave ko banane ki poori theory kaafi mantuq aur lamba hai. Ye theory toh stock market ke liye banayi gayi thi, lekin isay currency market mein bhi kamyabi se istemal kiya jata hai. Robert Prechter - Elliott ke mukhalif nazriyat ka ek aham faaila - ke mutabiq, moaasir margin markets aur automated trading systems ke is model par koi asar nahi hota, balke sirf statistics data ko zyada volatile structures ki taraf shift karta hai. Halaanki, Elliott Waves banane ke liye istemal kiye jane wale rules kafi strict hote hain, lekin markup mein hamesha kuch ihtimalat hoti hai, aur yeh sahi ya galat tab pata chalta hai jab structure pura ho jata hai, lekin yahan taqatwar hawalay ke saath tajaweez aur mustawab hawalay ke liye keemat hai.