EUR JPY تحليل

The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 157.85, where it last traded when the market closed on Friday, as of this writing. It fell 0.28% the day after dipping to 156.95 following the announcement of the United States (US) employment numbers. The reversal is largely due to renewed JPY weakness, even as the DXY remains near its day's lows. The pair has been consolidating gains from its mid-September dip in the 157.00-156.50 region. This is remarkable considering the lack of support for the USD in Friday's US economic data. According to the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by just 29K in September, below expectations of 90K. Previous months' figures have been revised downward; the August increase was revised to 133K from 162K, while July showed job losses of 10K, lower than the initial estimate of 21K jobs. Other indicators in the report support the notion of a cooling US labour market. The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.2%, while the Labour Force Participation Rate rose to 61.8% from 61.6%. Average Hourly Earnings are up 3% YoY, below expectations of 3.2%.

The USD Index, which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six key currencies, fell 0.23% post-NFP and remains near its daily lows. USD/JPY reversing its post-NFP losses suggests the recovery in this pair is driven by selling the Japanese Yen rather than a new bout of demand for the US Dollar. Today's numbers also shift market expectations for the next US Federal Reserve (Fed) decision. The CME FedWatch tool suggests investors now price in an 18% chance of a rate hike in October, down from 24% before the NFP numbers and 64% last week. Investor expectations have shifted after several weak US data releases. Yesterday's weak Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation numbers have lowered market hopes of a Fed rate hike next month. Today's job numbers also suggest the US economy may be losing momentum, although the chances of another rate hike in December remain relatively high at 69%.

On the Japanese side, Friday's fundamentals still offer several reasons to support the Yen. According to the Statistics Bureau of Japan, the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), ex Fresh Food, rose to 2.7% year-on-year in September, up from 1.8% the previous month. In addition, the price level increase excluding food and energy also accelerated to 3%, up from 2%. These figures add weight to the case for further monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The September Summary of Opinions (SoP), released on Thursday, also showed that several BoJ policymakers advocate further interest rate hikes. One member specifically stated that it is justified to continue doing so, depending on the economic situation and inflation levels. Nevertheless, the report notes that Cabinet Office representatives suggest carefully assessing the cumulative effect of previous interest rate increases. As a result, although Tokyo CPI acceleration and the hawkishness of some BoJ policymakers continue to rise, the Japanese Yen fails to sustain its gains against the US Dollar.


On the one-hour chart, USD/JPY is trading at 157.85 and above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 157.53 and the 200-period SMA at 157.71, which form resistance and suggest a continuation of the positive trend. Also, the pair has retraced from its recent low, and with the relative strength index (14) near 42, the outlook remains bearish. Support comes first at 157.00, with lower support at 156.50; a bigger drop would push price toward 155.50. As for resistance, price will face a tough barrier at the 100-period SMA at 157.53 and the 200-period SMA at 157.71, after which another horizontal resistance at 157.85 will challenge it before price heads toward 158.45 and 159.00.

في الأساس بالنسبة لزوج usdjpy لم يتغير شيء جوهرياً من حيث أننا نواصل التداول ضمن نفس النطاق. وفي الوقت الحالي نحاول مرة أخرى الصعود بل ونضغط في الاتجاه الصاعد، لأننا نتداول مجدداً فوق 158. لكن مع ذلك مبادرة البيع على المكشوف ما تزال قائمة. والحركة الهابطة ما زالت مستمرة. وهناك أماكن ننخفض إليها، لأن مستوى 152.10 كمستوى دعم لم يختفِ. لكن بالطبع الدولار يرتفع الآن وهذا ينعكس. ومع ذلك من المهم كيف سنتداول لاحقاً، لأن اليوم ستصدر أيضاً المؤشرات الأمريكية. عموماً لا أضع الشراء ضمن اعتباري. رغم أنني أعتقد أننا قد نصعد فوق 158.65. لكن هناك سأراقب فرص البيع.

بشكل عام، بالنسبة لزوج usdjpy لم يتغير شيء جوهري من حيث أننا ما زلنا نتداول ضمن نفس النطاق. وعلاوة على ذلك، اليوم أيضاً نرتفع، وما زلنا نتداول فوق 158، لكن التقلبات لا تزال ليست كبيرة، ومع ذلك أود أن أرى الزوج أعلى قليلاً. كما يجب الإشارة إلى أن مبادرة البيع لا تزال سائدة. والحركة الهابطة الأساسية لا تزال قائمة على الأقل في الوقت الراهن. خصوصاً أن منطقة الدعم عند 152.10 لم تختفِ. ويجدر بالذكر أيضاً أن الين نفسه تحت ضغط مجدداً. بشكل عام، لا أزال لا أنظر إلى الشراء عند مثل هذه الأسعار. لكن أعتقد أننا قد نرتفع فوق 158.65، حيث سأجرب البيع، لكن فقط مع وقف خسارة.