aud/usd

USD pair mazboot hai, jab ke expect kiya ja raha hai ke RBA apni Official Cash Rate ko Tuesday ko 4.35% par stable rakhega.Monday ko release hone wale kamzor Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data ke bawajood AUD ne US Dollar (USD ) ke muqable mein achi position hasil ki hai. AUD/USD ka strong hona China ke central bank PBoC ke banking system mein liquidity inject karne se bhi related ho sakta hai, kyun ke Australia aur China ke darmiyan qareebi trade relation hai, aur Chinese economy mein developments ka Australian markets par bara asar ho sakta hai.PBoC ne 14-day reverse repo ke zariye banking system mein CNY 74.5 billion ka injection kiya, aur is dauran rate ko 1.95% se kam karke 1.85% kiya gaya. Iske ilawa, PBoC ne 7-day reverse repo ke zariye bhi CNY 160.1 billion ka injection kiya, jisme rate 1.7% par stable raha.AUD ko hawkish expectations se bhi faida mil raha hai, jo ke RBA ki aanay wali interest rate decision ke hawalay se hain, jo Tuesday ko hone wali hai. Expect kiya ja raha hai ke RBA apni Official Cash Rate (OCR) ko 4.35% par stable rakhegi, jo mazboot labor market aur inflationary pressures ko madde nazar rakhtay hue hai. Doosri taraf, US Dollar (USD) ki qeemat mein kami ho sakti hai kyun ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke policymakers agle saal 2024 mein 75 basis points (bps) ke rate cuts predict kar rahe hain, jab ke last week unho ne aggressive 50 basis points ka rate cut kiya tha, jis se range 4.75-5.00% ho gayi hai.Monday ko AUD/USD pair 0.6820 ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ki technical analysis yeh dikhati hai ke pair ascending channel pattern ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke bullish bias ki kamzori ko zahir karta hai. But 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ab bhi 50 se ooper hai, is liye aglay price movement se pair ke trend ka behtar andaza hoga. Is waqt AUD/USD pair ascending channel ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke 0.6839 ke nine-month high ke qareeb hai, jo 19 September ko dekha gaya tha. Agar is level se bounce hota hai, to pair upper boundary tak pohanch sakta hai, jo 0.6890 level ke qareeb hai. Neeche ki taraf, AUD/USD pair ko support 0.6771 par nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) par mil sakta hai, aur agla aham support psychological level 0.6700 par hoga. Agar is se neeche break hota hai, to pair six-week low 0.6622 ki taraf ja sakta hai
downward slope par hain, MACD oscillator ke volumes kam ho rahe hain, Relative Strength Index (RSI) 49 se neeche hai, aur trend filter oscillator ne laal rang le liya hai, jo bears ke dominant hone ka saboot deta hai. Iss waqt selling ko tarjeeh di jani chahiye. Agar yeh girawat jari rehti hai, to agla target level 0.6621 hoga. Agar bears is threshold ko tod dete hain, to quotes mazeed gir kar 0.6560 tak ja sakti hain. Main yeh tawaqo karta hoon ke yeh level bhi breakdown hoga, aur downward trend 0.6605 tak jari rahega, jo ke channel ke neeche wali boundary 0.6557 tak bhi pohanch sakta hai. Medium term mein mera target 0.6458 aur 0.6349 ke levels par hai. Meri analysis jo maine subah share ki thi, us ke mutabiq AUD/USD market bilkul bears ki madad kar rahi hai aur abhi 0.6646 level par hai. Agar yeh rejection hoti hai, to bulls ko dobara market mein entry lene ka moka milega. Iss dauran, market buyers ke haq mein ja rahi hai, jo is baat ka wazeh ishara hai ke momentum ab upward movement ki taraf shift ho raha hai. Buyers ko taqat mil rahi hai aur wo prices ko upar dhakel rahe hain, jo ke ek bullish scenario ka saboot hai. Doosri taraf, sellers apna asar kho rahe hain aur unhein market par dabao dalna mushkil ho raha hai. Aise mein, sellers ke liye sell entry lena munasib nahi hoga, kyun ke yeh prevailing trend ke khilaf hoga. Is waqt sell position lena nuqsan ka sabab ban sakta hai, kyun ke market ka momentum strong bullish trend ko support kar raha hai aur downward movement ka faida uthana mushkil hai. Imandari se, yeh lagta hai ke AUD/USD market agle chand ghanton mein bullish trend shuru kar dega. Yeh observation technical analysis ke zariye bhi support hoti hai jo daily aur hourly charts par available hai. Dono

Hamari guftagu mein hum AUD/USD currency pair ke maujooda price behavior ka tajziya kar rahe hain. Market ka rujhan USD ko bechnay ka tha, jis ke natijay mein AUD/USD pair bhi usi rujhan ko follow kar raha tha. Pair ka growth barabar aur pur itminan tha, lekin doosri badi currencies ke muqable mein itni tezi nahi thi. Is ke bawajood, pair ne ahem levels ko touch kiya aur critical benchmarks ko test kiya, jo ke selling opportunities ka sochne par majboor kar rahe thay. Aaj lekin, na toh koi aagay barh ne ka silsila tha aur na hi koi kami dekhi gayi. H4 chart par lagta hai ke Aussie aik flat correction phase mein ja sakta hai, jis ke baad phir se growth ka imkaan hai. Is surat-e-haal mein mere liye koi wazeh trading options nahi hain. Kharidne ke liye ziada gehray pullback ki zarurat hai, aur bechnay ke liye zaroori hai ke Friday ka high break ho, magar filhal dono halatain mojood nahi hain. Is liye main Australian market se door reh raha hoon. Four-hour chart par MACD indicator bearish divergence dekha raha hai, jo ke girawat ka mazboot signal hai aur jaldi samnay aa sakta hai. Aaj AUD/USD ka market 0.6814 level par trade kar raha hai, jo ke is haftay ka overbought level hai. Is liye, AUD/USD ka market bullish rujhan follow karega. Is haftay USD ne kaafi kamzori dekhaayi hai, jab ke doosri currencies kaafi mazboot hui hain. Yeh observation zyada tor par fundamental analysis par mabni hai, jismein mukhtalif economic indicators ne USD ki taqat ko manfi tor par mutasir kiya hai. Traders aur market analysts ke liye yeh samajhna zaroori hai ke yeh market dynamic kin factors ki wajah se hai aur yeh kaise mustaqbil ke movements ko mutasir kar sakte hain. Economic data, central bank ke faislay, aur market sentiment sabhi currency valuations ko shakal dete hain. In elements ko gehrai se samajhne ke baad, traders mazeed behtar faislay kar sakte hain jo ke unhein constantly shifting forex market ko navigate karne mein madad dein. Is liye, AUD/USD dobara resistance level 0.6845 ko cross karega. USD ki kamzori ko zyada tor par chand ahem economic factors se joora ja sakta hai, jo ke fundamental analysis se zyada wazeh hue hain. Ek bara sabab Federal Funds Rate se mutaliq disappointing data raha hai. Federal Reserve jo yeh rate set karta hai, unki taraf se negative numbers aaye hain, jo USD ki value par seedha asar daalte hain. Kam Federal Funds Rate ka matlab hai ke borrowing costs sasti ho jaati hain, jis se USD rakhne ka faida kam ho jaata hai aur investors behtareen yields kahin aur dhoondhte hain.

AUD/USD Ki Price Movement Analysis

Hamari guftagu mein aaj hum AUD/USD currency pair ki mojooda pricing behavior ka tajziya kar rahe hain. Market sentiment kaafi zyada US dollar ko bechne ke haqq mein tha, aur naturally AUD/USD pair ne bhi is rujhan ko follow kiya. Yeh pair dheemi magar yaqini growth dikha raha tha, halan ke doosri major currencies jitni tezi se nahi bara. Phir bhi, yeh significant levels tak pohnch gaya aur critical benchmarks ko test kiya, jisse selling opportunities ka socha ja sakta tha. Aaj, lekin, na to growth ka silsila jari raha aur na hi koi girawat dekhnay ko mili. H4 chart par Aussie shaayad ek flat correction phase mein dakhil ho sakta hai, jiske baad growth ka imkaan hai ke wapas aaye. Is surat-e-haal mein mujhe koi clear trading options nazar nahi aa rahi hain. Buying ke liye ek deeper pullback ki zaroorat hai, aur selling tabhi mumkin hai jab Friday ke high ko break kare, lekin in dono scenarios mein se koi bhi abhi mojood nahi hai. Isliye, mein filhal Australian market se door hoon. Four-hour chart par MACD indicator ek bearish divergence ko dikhata hai, jo girawat ka strong signal hai, aur yeh materialize zaroor hoga.

Australian Dollar ki recent weakness ka primary driver China ki deteriorating economic outlook hai. Mulki Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) wo pace nahi dikha saka jo expected tha, jo ke demand mein kami ko zahir karta hai, chahe wo domestically ho ya internationally. Is concern ko aur barhaya PBoC (People's Bank of China) ke surprising rate-cut decision ne, aur Third Plenary Session mein kisi bhi substantial spending measures ka na hone ka asar bhi. China ki economic health ka ek key proxy hone ke natije mein, Australian Dollar ko in developments se kaafi zyada nuqsaan pohcha hai recent trading sessions mein. In challenges ke bawajood, USD apne struggles face kar sakta hai kyun ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein rate cut ke imkaanat barh rahe hain. Yeh potential development AUD/USD pair par downward pressure ko kuch hadd tak kam kar sakta hai. Traders ab Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data ke release ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo US ki economic conditions ke hawale se mazeed insights provide karega.

AUD/USD pair ka Friday ko European trading session ke pehle half mein 0.6900 mark ke neeche ek narrow range mein trade hota raha, jo ke February 2023 ke baad se sab se unchi levels ke qareeb hai. US dollar (USD) ko thodi taqat mili US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index ke release se pehle, jo AUD/USD pair ke liye ek aham resistance factor bana. Lekin, Federal Reserve ke November mein ek aur aggressive rate cut ki umeedon ne dollar bulls ko zyada aggressive bets karne se roka. Market mein positive sentiment, jo ke People's Bank of China (PBOC) ke stimulus measures se support mila, ne risk-sensitive Australian dollar (AUD) ko mazid taqat di. RBA ke restrictive policy stance ke dohraane aur Governor Michelle Bullock ke recent data ke policy outlook par limited impact ke comments suggest karte hain ke AUD/USD pair ka least resistance ka rasta upward hai, jo do hafton ke uptrend ke extension ka imkan barhata hai. AUD/USD pair ne aaj sideways trade kiya, jab ke teen bohot volatile sessions ke baad is ne apni February 2023 ke baad sab se unchi level tak poch gaya. US Personal Consumption Expenditures report is jang ke natije ka taayun karne mein bohot aham kirdar ada kar sakti hai. Jo uptrend 5 August 2024 ko shuru hui thi, wo mazid strong lagti hai, aur higher highs aur higher lows ka silsila is ko support kar raha hai.
Momentum indicators filhal mixed hain. Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) ne sharply rise kiya hai, jo ke AUD/USD pair ke liye strong bullish trend ko darsha raha hai. Lekin, Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 midpoint ke upar comfortably trade kar raha hai, aur Stochastic Oscillator overbought zone mein hover kar raha hai, jo ke current uptrend ke liye khatra ho sakta hai. Agar bulls confident rahe, to wo AUD/USD pair ko 25 February 2021 ki trend line ke upar push karne ki koshish kar sakte hain. Agar yeh successful hua, to 13 October 2022 se 2 February 2023 tak ke uptrend ka 50% Fibonacci retracement, jo 0.6924 par hai, ko test kar sakte hain. Us ke baad, 0.7000 ka level agla logical target ho sakta hai. Aap ke trading strategy ke mutabiq, jab tak channel upward trend mein hai, short trades enter karna aap nahi chahte. Achi strategy yeh hogi ke jab channel ke lower limit par correction aaye, tab buy karna chahiye, taake false entry ke case mein nuqsaan se bacha ja sake. Channel ka upper limit 0.60438 par hai, aur upper part establish hone ke baad ek potential decline ko dekhna bhi zaroori hoga.

/USD currency pair ki price behavior ka analysis zabt-e-bahs hai. AUD/USD pair ne daily chart par neeche ki taraf rukh liya hai, jo ek wazeh downtrend dikha raha hai. Aaj ki movement se lagta hai ke yeh bearish direction jari rehne ka imkaan hai, lekin reversal bhi mumkin hai. Aaiye din ki technical analysis ko break down karte hain. Moving averages strong sell signal de rahe hain, aur technical indicators bhi selling pressure ko support kar rahe hain. Kul mila kar outlook suggest karta hai ke bearish trend jari rahega, magar hum kisi bhi potential shift ko monitor karenge. Price tab se is level se neeche gir chuki hai, aur dusre major currency pairs bhi qareeb mustaqbil mein mazboot US dollar ki taraf ishaara kar rahe hain. Pehle wave par Fibonacci grid lagane se target decline level kareeb 161.9% hai. Beech ka target technical level 0.6641 hai, aur mera khayal hai ke price jald is level ki taraf move karegi. Magar thoda growth ya pullback ho sakta hai, jo sab se qareebi resistance level 0.6691 tak pohonch sakta hai. AUD/USD ke four-hour chart ko dekhte hue, downward trend momentum gain kar raha hai ek wazeh wave structure ke saath. MACD indicator lower sell zone mein hai, apni signal line se neeche reh kar. Pehle, MACD aur CCI indicators par triple bearish divergence saamne aayi thi. Mazeed, ek reversal pattern—ascending wedge—ko downside ki taraf break kiya gaya, jisse bearish divergence signal validate hua. Nateeja yeh hua ke price drop hui, aur temporary support kareeb 0.6701 par hona tha. Aik prolonged corrective rise ke baad, price ne mirror resistance level ko hit kiya 0.6756 par, jo pehle support tha. Yeh level growth edge par hai aur consistently strong selling zone raha hai. Is decline ko jari rakhne mein ek ahem factor CCI indicator hai, jo weekly chart par upper overheating zone

Toh, is pair ke furnished chart par, is doran ek aisi situation bani jab Hiken Ashi candles ka rang neela ho gaya, ab bullish mode shayad bearish par fa'ail rahega, aur is natije mein aap market mein enter karne ke liye ek modern element le sakte hain taake long trades execute ki ja sakein. Prices linear channel ki lower line (red dotted line) ko cross kar gayi hain, lekin, sabse neeche aane ke baad, wo channel ki center line (yellow dotted line) ki taraf bounce kar gayi. Yeh bhi kehna chahunga ke basement RSI indicator (14) buy signal ko approve karta hai, jabke yeh ab long function ko tarjeeh nahi de raha - is waqt ka hesaab hai. Upside ke hawale se, mujhe yeh conclude karna hai ke buy action ka probability ab zyada hai, aur isliye extensive trade shuru karna kaafi justified hai. Main 0.69500 ke charge quote par income ki umeed rakhta hoon jo channel ki upper area border (blue dotted line) par hai. Jab order value zone mein enter ho jaye, toh breakeven ki taraf move karne ki salahiyat dena chahiye, kyunki market hamari umeedon ko ghalat moves se influence karne ka bohot shauq rakhta hai.
**Maujooda Price Behaviour ka Jaiza AUD/USD Currency Pair**
Jumeraat ko, AUD/USD pair H1 pivot 0.6835 tak nahi pohonch saka, jabke growth 0.6830 par cap hui. Magar, support level jo 0.6783 par aur gehra girne se rok raha tha, intact raha. Session ne 0.6816 se rebound karte hue 7/8 H1 pivot par 0.6804 tak girne se khatam kiya, jabke M15 time frame bullish raha. Yeh bullish setup ye darust karta hai ke aane wale Peer se growth 0.6830 ki taraf jaari reh sakta hai. H1 ki bullish support ke saath, price shayad 0.6841 tak push kare aur 0.6875 tak pohonche. Lekin agar M15 TF ki bullish support toot jaaye aur price 0.6790 se neeche gir jaaye, toh meri strategy badal jaayegi. Phir decline 0.6769 aur 0.6749 ke darmiyan bullish H1 ko tod sakta hai. Agar yeh hota hai, toh pair ek recovery karne ki koshish karega, bullish H1 ko barqarar rakhte hue. Agar bullish break ho jaata hai, toh ek zyada substantial bearish shift ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar pair 0.6699–0.6669 zone ke neeche consolidate kare.