USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USD/JPY ka currency pair filhal focus ka markaz hai, jo ke U.S aur Japanese economic trends aur monetary policies ke darmiyan complex interaction ko reflect kar raha hai. Pair ne Thursday ke U.S session mein 158.00 ka multi-month high touch kiya tha, lekin Friday ke Asian trading mein halka sa retreat karte hue 157.75 par stabilize ho gaya. Ye fluctuation Federal Reserve ki hawkish policy aur Bank of Japan (BOJ) ki cautious approach ke darmiyan contrast ko dikhata hai. Tokyo ke December CPI data ne 3.0% year-over-year increase dikhaya, jo ke expected 2.9% aur November ke 2.6% se zyada tha. Ye izafa temporary utility subsidies ke hatane ki wajah se hua, jo ke 2024 mein BOJ rate hike ke speculation ko barhawa de raha hai. BOJ ke December “Summary of Opinions” ne yeh signal diya ke monetary tightening ke liye conditions develop ho rahi hain, lekin wage growth, fiscal uncertainties aur global dynamics par concerns ki wajah se BOJ abhi cautious hai. Inflation ke 2% target se zyada hone ke bawajood BOJ ka kehna hai ke wo substantial data ka intezar karenge pehle policy ko change karne se. Dusri taraf, U.S Federal Reserve ke gradual rate cuts ka signal U.S Dollar ko support de raha hai aur USD/JPY ke bullish trend ko barqarar rakha hai. Halan ke USD/JPY ne 158.00 se halka sa retreat kiya, lekin strong U.S economic data aur elevated Treasury yields is bullish outlook ko mazbooti de rahe hain.Technical side par, pair upward momentum mein hai, jahan immediate resistance 158.20 aur key support 157.50 par hai. Agar 158.20 ka level break ho gaya, to target 159.00 ho sakta hai, lekin agar price 157.50 ke neeche girta hai, to deeper correction ka signal mil sakta hai. Rising Wedge pattern bearish risk ko introduce karta hai, jo ke price reversal ka ishara deta hai. Ichimoku Cloud aur 160.00 psychological level par resistance critical points hain jinhe closely monitor karna zaroori hai.Sath hi, Japanese authorities ke intervention ka risk bhi hai jo ke Yen ki weakness ko rokne ke liye aa sakta hai aur rally ko disrupt kar sakta hai. Year-end liquidity ke kam hone aur heightened policy speculation ke darmiyan, USD/JPY pair near term mein significant volatility dekh sakta hai.

Comprehensive analysis ki buniyad par trading
USD/JPY
Assalam Alaikum! Chuttiyon se pahle US dollar/Japanese yen ka joda November ki buland tarin satah 156 se ooper badh gaya, jis se 162.0 ki tareekhi buland satah ki taraf aage badhne ki rah hamwar hui. Muntaqi taur par, ek nayi bulandi par pahunchne ke bad pullback ka imkan hai. 153.0 ki satah tak kisi bhi kami ko taraqqi ke dobara shuru hone ke imkan ke sath pullback ke taur par dekha ja sakta hai. Agar qimat is satah se niche aa jati hai to, islah ke liye jane ka sawal paida hoga. Halankeh, in tamam scenario ko January ki shuruaat tak multawi kiya ja sakta hai. Is dauran, dollar/yen ka joda maujudah satah ke ird-gird sideways trade jari rakh sakta hai.



Sath hi, volume profile se pata chalta hai keh dollar/yen ka joda markazi volume zone ki hadd par aage badh raha hai, jahan se yah piche hat sakta hai. Is zone ko chorte waqt, qimat na maloom ilaqe me dakhil ho jayegi.



Lehaza, sab se zyada imkani scenario yah hai keh dollar/yen ki jodi higher trade karti rahegi, lekin ek pullback se inkar nahin kiya ja sakta hai. Good luck to everyone and profitable trading.

USD/JPY ke liye outlook
Assalam Alaikum! Andazah lagane ki zarurat nahin hai, kiyunkeh haftawar chart par dollar/yen ki jodi ka rujhan wazeh taur par ooper ki taraf hai. Market ki maujudah suratehal me, short jane se behtar long jana hai. Computer analysis ke mutabiq, kharid signal maujud hai. MACD oscillator histogram manfi ilaqe se nikal kar musbat ilaqe me dakhil ho gaya hai, jabkeh CCI oscillator line shumal ki taraf badh rahi hai. Hadaf 161.95 ki satah ko todna hai. Is satah se aage, farokht karne walon ke stop-loss hain jinhone short positions kholin aur apna khatrah wahan rakha.

USD/JPY ka hai aur 4-hour timeframe par dikhaya gaya hai. Chart ka analysis yeh batata hai ke abhi price ek uptrend mein hai, jiska matlab hai ke price lagataar higher highs aur higher lows bana raha hai. Price moving averages ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo bullish trend ka signal deta hai. Neeche kuch key points par tafseel se baat ki gayi hai:
1. Trend Analysis
Chart clearly ek strong uptrend show kar raha hai. Moving averages upward slope karte huye dikhai de rahe hain, jo is trend ko support karte hain. Iska matlab yeh hai ke buyers kaafi zyada active hain aur price ko neeche girne se rok rahe hain.
2. Support Zone
Ek horizontal support line mark ki gayi hai jo kareeb 156.47 par hai. Agar price neeche girta hai, toh yeh support level ek rebound ka mauqa ho sakta hai. Agar price is level se neeche break kare, toh yeh ek trend reversal ka signal bhi ho sakta hai. Lekin jab tak price is support level ke upar hai, bullish trend ka continuation expect kiya ja sakta hai.
3. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
RSI indicator abhi 64.24 par hai, jo bullish momentum ko show karta hai. Lekin yeh overbought levels ke kareeb hai, jo batata hai ke price kuch der ke liye consolidate ya minor pullback kar sakta hai. Agar RSI 70 ke upar chala jaye, toh overbought condition ho sakti hai, jahan se price neeche aana shuru kar sakta hai.
4. Moving Averages
Chart par moving averages upward slope kar rahe hain, jo strong buying pressure dikhata hai. Jab price moving averages ke upar rehta hai, toh yeh trend ke continuation ka signal hota hai. Agar price moving averages ke neeche aa jaye, toh deeper correction ya reversal ka indication mil sakta hai.
Conclusion
Agar price support line par stable rehta hai, toh bullish trend continue ho sakta hai. Lekin agar support break ho jaye, toh yeh reversal ka signal hoga. Trading karte waqt technical indicators aur fundamental analysis ka zaroor istemal karein.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Yen Mazboot Data Ke Baad Dobara Increase Hai

Japanese yen ne Friday ko Asian trade mein izafa dikhaya aur pehle chaar din ke nuqsan ke baad pehli baar faida hasil kiya, jab Japan ke mazboot economic data ke baad US dollar ke mukable mein uski position behtar hui.

Mazboot data aur BOJ (Bank of Japan) ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke hawksih remarks ne January mein Japan ki interest rate hike ke imkaanat ko mazid barhaya.

Yen Ki Halat
Is ke bawajood ke yen aaj gains show kar raha hai, lekin yeh chauthi consecutive weekly loss ki taraf ja raha hai, jis ki wajah Japan aur US ke interest rate gap ke hawale se nayi fikrain hain. Yeh fikrain Federal Reserve ke akhri policy meeting ke hawale se hain, jo expect ki gayi policy se zyada aggressive rahi.

USD/JPY Ka Price
USD/JPY pair aaj 0.3% gir kar 157.50 yen per dollar par aa gaya, jab ke session-high 157.95 par raha.

Kal yen ne dollar ke muqable mein 0.4% ka nuqsan uthaya, jo lagatar teesri dafa tha, aur 158.08 ke paanch-mahine ke neeche ke level tak gir gaya, jo ke US yields ke izafe ki wajah se hua.

Mazboot Data
Tokyo ke naye data ke mutabiq, core inflation December mein 2.4% tak barh gaya, jo pichle chaar mahine ka sabse tez izafa tha. November mein yeh 2.2% tha.

Yeh data price increases aur inflationary pressures mein izafa reflect karta hai, jo January mein rate hike ke imkaanat ko mazid mazboot banata hai.

Japan ki retail sales bhi November mein 2.8% barhi, jo ke 1.5% ke estimates ko beat kar gayi aur October ke 1.3% se upar rahi. Yeh data Japanese economy ke fourth quarter mein strong growth ko zahir karta hai.

Ueda Ka Bayaan
BOJ ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ne kaha ke bank expect karta hai ke agle saal tak economy apne 2% inflation target ke kareeb sustainably pahuchegi.

Japanese Interest Rates
Data aur statements ke baad, BOJ ke January mein 0.25% interest rate hike ke imkaanat 55% se barh kar 65% tak pohanch gaye.

Weekly Trends
Yen is hafte ab tak dollar ke mukable mein 0.75% gir chuka hai, jo lagatar chauthi weekly loss hogi.

Yeh nuqsan US aur Japan ke interest rate gap ki wajah se hai, jo Federal Reserve ki akhri policy meeting ke hawale se aur barh gaya hai. Fed ki forecasts mein ab 2025 mein sirf do interest rate cuts dikhaye gaye hain, jab ke pehle chaar cuts ka estimate tha.

Inflation Aur Labor Market Data Ka Asar
Friday, 27 December ko inflation aur labor market data USD/JPY pair aur BOJ ke rate path ko asarandaz kar sakte hain. December mein BOJ ne interest rates ko 0.25% par barqarar rakha. Governor Ueda ne kaha ke bank ko wage growth trends ka mazeed jaiza lena hoga.

Economists ka mutabiq, Japan ki unemployment rate November mein 2.5% par barqarar rehne ki umeed hai. Agar unexpected taur par unemployment gir jaye to yeh wages barhane aur consumer spending aur inflationary pressures ko mazboot karega. Wages mein izafa Q1 2025 ke liye BOJ rate hike ki umeed ko support karega.

Is ke baraks, agar unemployment lagatar barhti hai to Q1 2025 rate hike ke imkaanat aur kam ho sakte hain.

Inflation Data Ki Ahmiyat
Economists ka andaza hai ke Tokyo ka CPI Ex Food aur Energy December mein 2.0% y/y barhega, jo November ke 1.9% se zyada hai. Agar yeh reading BOJ ke 2% target se upar chali jati hai, to yeh zyada hawkish rate path ko support karegi.

Mazboot inflation aur kam unemployment rate BOJ ke liye jaldi rate hikes ka signal ho sakta hai, jab ke soft inflation aur barhati unemployment rate rate hikes ko Q2 2025 tak delay karne ka signal de sakti hai.

BOJ Ke Summary Of Opinions Aur Outlook
BOJ ki "Summary of Opinions" rate hike ke liye zaroori shara'it par insight degi. Agar data expectations se weak aata hai, to dovish policy aur kamzor rate hike outlook USD/JPY pair ko 160 ke mark ke kareeb le ja sakti hai.



Is ke baraks, hawkish policies aur mazboot data pair ko 156.884 ke neeche gira sakte hain.

Governor Ueda ne is hafte dobara stress kiya ke future policy decisions economic activity, prices, aur financial conditions par mabni honge.

US Housing Market Ka Asar
US session mein house price data USD/JPY pair ko asarandaz kar sakta hai. Housing market ko aksar US economy ka ek benchmark samjha jata hai.

Agar house prices neeche aate hain, to yeh consumer confidence aur spending ko kamzor kar sakta hai, jo dovish Fed rate path ko support karega.

Mazboot house prices USD/JPY pair ko 161.920 ke resistance level ki taraf le ja sakti hain.

USD/JPY Analysis
USD/JPY ka daily chart humein bullish trend dikhata hai. Yeh trend moving averages, RSI, MACD, aur stochastic indicators ke zariye confirm hota hai. Current price 157.83 ke qareeb hai, jo recent highs ke kareeb trading kar raha hai.
Trend Analysis:
Chart par 50-day aur 200-day moving averages upward direction mein hain, jo yeh suggest karte hain ke market mein bullish momentum barqarar hai. Price in dono moving averages ke upar hai, jo long-term aur short-term strength ko confirm karta hai.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
RSI ka reading 67.83 hai, jo overbought zone ke qareeb hai. Iska matlab hai ke price kaafi strength ke saath upar ja raha hai, magar yeh bhi signal ho sakta hai ke price mein thoda correction aa sakta hai.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
MACD line signal line ke upar hai aur dono lines ka divergence positive hai. Yeh bullish trend ka indication deta hai aur batata hai ke buying pressure zyada hai. Histogram ka size barh raha hai, jo trend ki strength ko dikhata hai.
Stochastic Oscillator:
Stochastic oscillator ka reading 90 ke qareeb hai, jo overbought condition ko indicate karta hai. Iska matlab hai ke price ab temporary resistance face kar sakta hai aur chhoti si downward correction ho sakti hai.
Key Levels:
Support level 154.60 par hai, jo strong buying zone ho sakta hai agar price neeche aaye. Resistance level 160.90 ke aas paas hai. Agar price is level ko todta hai, to naya bullish rally shuru ho sakta hai.
Final Thoughts:
USD/JPY ka overall trend bullish hai, magar overbought indicators suggest karte hain ke short-term correction possible hai. Traders ke liye zaroori hai ke support aur resistance levels ka dhyan rakhein aur indicators ke signals ko follow karein. Agar market neeche aata hai, to yeh ek acha buying opportunity ho sakta hai. Magar agar resistance todta hai, to bullish rally mazeed barh sakti hai.
Trade karne se pehle apni risk management strategy zaroor banayen.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders (December 27 - US Session)
Trading Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen
The first test at 157.90 coincided with the MACD moving well above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upside potential. I did not buy the dollar for this reason.
The second test of this price came shortly after, when the MACD indicator was in the overbought area, which allowed the execution of scenario #. 2 (sell strategy), which took the pair to the target level of 157.68. The US goods trade balance and changes in wholesale inventory volumes are the only major data scheduled for the second half of the day.
The strong stats could fuel another bullish attempt in USD/JPY, but such a move is unlikely to sustain. Weak statistics will increase the pressure on the pair, so I recommend trading in the side channel. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
* Scenario no. 1: I am planning to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point of 157.82 (green line on the chart) with the aim of increasing to 158.13 (stronger green line on the chart). Around 158.13 I will stop buying and open short positions in the opposite direction with the aim of a 30-35 point move. Growth in the pair is probably only in the minor channel.
* Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.





* Scenario no. 2: Today I also plan to buy USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of 157.56 when the MACD indicator will be in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upside reversal. Growth towards 157.82 and 158.13 can be expected.
Sell Signal
* Scenario no. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after breaking the 157.56 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. A key target for sellers will be 157.37 where I will stop selling and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction with the target of a 20-25 pip move. A return of pressure on the dollar is unlikely today.
* Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and that is where it starts to go down.
* Scenario no. 2: Today I also plan to sell USD/JPY in the event of two consecutive tests of 157.82 when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a downward reversal. Drops towards 157.56 and 157.37 can be expected.
I hope this Roman Urdu English version is clear and helpful

Assalamu'alaikum sab traders umeed hai sab khairiyat se honge aur aapke kaam sahi aur smoothly chal rahe honge.Hafte ke is shuruaat mein apna trading journal update karna chahta hoon taake forex market mein agle trading mauqay dekhay ja sakein. Market ka mushahida karne se ye samajh aaya ke USD/JPY pair ne pichlay haftay ek bullish trend dikhaya. Asal mein, kuch hafton se bullish momentum chal raha hai, aur pichlay haftay ki tezi ne price ko kaafi upar le gaya, halan ke price ab 157.82 ke aas-paas consolidate kar raha hai. Subha jab market khula to price kaafi dheeme motion mein tha shayad saal ke akhri dinon ki wajah se magar upward trend ke liye abhi bhi scope hai.Agar December ke start se lekar ab tak price ka analysis kiya jaye, to price kaafi large range mein bullish side ki taraf move kar raha hai.Iska matlab hai ke candlestick pichlay haftay ka bullish trend continue karne ki koshish kar raha hai aur aglay chand dino mein ye uptrend aur barqarar reh sakta hai. Agar dekha jaye current candlestick position ne 100-period Simple Moving Average zone ko cross kar liya hai, jo ke buyers ki strong control ko dikhata hai. Pichlay chand dino ke price movement ko dekhte hue lagta hai ke is hafte ka market bullish rahega. Pichla hafta 156.45 par close hua tha, aur 4-hour time frame yeh dikhata hai ke buyers ne price upar le jane mein kaafi control dikhaya hai. Pichlay do hafton ka trend dekha jaye to lagta hai ke USD/JPY ka price abhi aur barhne ka imkaan rakhta hai.Agar buyers price ko 158.02 tak le jate hain, to agla bullish target 158.62 ke aas-paas ho sakta hai. Yeh price action aur key resistance levels ka dhyan rakhnay walon ke liye ek clear roadmap provide karta hai. Trading karte waqt discipline aur soojh boojh ka istemal zaroori hai taake profit kama sakein aur risk manage kiya ja sake.

دسمبر 30 2024 کے لیے امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین کی پیشن گوئی

امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین جوڑا 157.72-158.32 کی حد میں طے پا گیا ہے۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر نیچے کی طرف مڑ رہا ہے۔ یہ تکنیکی اشارے، خاص طور پر اسٹاک انڈیکس میں کمی کو دیکھتے ہوئے، 155.90 پر درمیانی سپورٹ کی طرف ممکنہ الٹ جانے کا مشورہ دیتے ہیں۔ تاہم، 153.60 کی سطح پر مزید نمایاں کمی واقع ہونے کے لیے، قیمت کو 155.90 سے نیچے مستحکم ہونا چاہیے، اور مارلن آسیلیٹر کو منفی علاقے میں جانے کی ضرورت ہے۔



160.20 کی طرف بڑھنا بھی ایک امکان ہے، خاص طور پر اگر قیمت موجودہ حد کے اندر مستحکم ہوتی رہے۔ اس منظر نامے میں تقریباً 20 فیصد کا امکان ہے۔ اگر قیمت ریورس کرنے اور درمیانی مدت کے نیچے کے رجحان میں داخل ہونے کا ارادہ رکھتی ہے (ین کی مضبوطی کی نشاندہی کرتا ہے)، تو یہ اس کے لیے 155.90 سے اوپر کی نچلی سطح پر مستحکم ہونا منطقی ہوگا۔

ایچ -٤ چارٹ پر، قیمت کی 155.90 کی طرف حرکت کو 157.17 پر دو اشارے لائنوں کے ساتھ ساتھ 157.72 کی سطح اور جمعہ کی کم سے مزاحمت کا سامنا کرنے کا امکان ہے۔ تاہم، مارلن آسیلیٹر سپورٹ فراہم کر رہا ہے، بیئرش زون میں داخل ہونے کے بعد اور بصری طور پر اس کے زوال کو تیز کر رہا ہے۔ مارکیٹ اس وقت انتظار اور دیکھو کے موڈ میں ہے، جو کہ قریب آنے والے نئے سال کے پیش نظر قابل فہم ہے۔



تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

"USD/JPY ka hourly chart dekhte hue, price is waqt 157.810 ke aas-paas consolidate kar raha hai. Yeh zone resistance aur support ke darmiyan hai, jahan price aage ki direction dhoondhne ki koshish kar raha hai. Chart par upar ka resistance 158.180 par hai, jo abhi tak price ke liye ek barrier ka kaam kar raha hai. Neeche ka support level 155.996 par hai, jo strong buying zone lag raha hai.
Indicators ki baat karein toh MACD flat hai aur signal line ke kareeb hai, jo market ki momentum mein kami aur indecision ko show kar raha hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke filhal market kisi significant move ke intezar mein hai. RSI (Relative Strength Index) 48.93 par hai, jo neutral zone mein hai. Na toh yeh overbought zone mein hai aur na hi oversold zone mein, jo is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke buyers aur sellers ke darmiyan balance barqarar hai.
Is consolidation phase ka matlab yeh hai ke market ek breakout ke liye tayar hai. Agar price 158.180 ka resistance todta hai, toh yeh bullish trend ko confirm karega, aur price agle levels tak ja sakta hai. Lekin agar price neeche girta hai aur 155.996 ka support todta hai, toh bearish trend dominate kar sakta hai.
Traders ke liye is waqt sabse behtareen strategy yeh hogi ke woh confirmation ka intezar karein. Agar price resistance todta hai, toh buy ka setup samjhein, lekin agar support break hota hai, toh sell karna behtar hoga. Stop-loss aur take-profit levels ka istemal zaroor karein, kyun ke yeh volatility ke waqt zaroori hota hai.
Aapki strategy is setup ke liye kya hogi? Kya aap breakout ka intezar karenge ya phir is consolidation zone mein trade karenge? Apni approach aur analysis share karein!"

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Bullish Kicking Pattern

Asian trade mein, Yen ne Monday ko dollar aur doosri currencies ke khilaf apni girawat jari rakhi, aur phir se paanch mah ke lows ke qareeb aa gaya. Ye girawat Bank of Japan (BOJ) ki warnings aur January mein interest rates barhane par policymakers ke beech ikhtilaf ki wajah se hui.

Price par aur pressure US aur Japan ke interest rate gap ki fikar ki wajah se hai, jo Federal Reserve ke recent bullish policy meeting ke baad ziada nazar aa rahi hai.

Price Update

• USD/JPY aaj 0.15% barh kar 157.99 yen per dollar par trade kar raha hai, jab ke session-low 157.65 raha.
• Yen ne Friday ko dollar ke khilaf 0.8% izafa kiya, jab usne 158.08 ke paanch mah ke lows se recover ki koshish ki.
• Japanese inflation aur retail sales data ke strong honay par us waqt yen ne zameen haasil ki thi.
• Magar yen ne pichle hafte dollar ke khilaf 0.9% se ziada girawat dekhi, jo chautha weekly loss tha, jab ke US treasury yields barh rahi thi.

Bank of Japan (BOJ)
BOJ ki latest meeting minutes ne policymakers ke darmiyan ikhtilaf ko dikhaya. Kuch policymakers short term mein interest rates barhane ke liye ziada confident hain, jab ke doosre wages aur Trump policies ki uncertainty ki wajah se cautious hain.

BOJ ke Kazuo Ueda ne guzishta hafte kaha ke bank umeed karta hai ke economy agle saal tak sustainable tor par apne 2% inflation target ke qareeb pohonch jaye gi.

January mein 0.25% interest rate hike ke chances abhi 55% par hain, magar investors mazeed inflation aur labor data ka intezar kar rahe hain taake mazeed clues mil sakein.

US Rates
Fedwatch tool ke mutabiq, January mein 0.25% US interest rate cut ke chances 11% hain. Investors agle hafte ke crucial US labor data ka intezar kar rahe hain taake aur zaati maloomat haasil ho.

Yen Ka Future Outlook
Sydney Bank ke analysts ne kaha ke USD/JPY ka upward trend overdone ho sakta hai, jo ek correction ka rasta khol sakta hai.
Unhone yeh bhi kaha ke agar USD/JPY pair mein rapid spike hoti hai, toh Japanese authorities ke taraf se intervention ka imkaan hai.

Kya Manufacturing PMI Data BOJ Rate Hike Bets Ko Test Karega?
Monday, December 30 ko finalized manufacturing PMI data USD/JPY aur BOJ par focus layega. Preliminary survey ke mutabiq, Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI November ke 49.0 se barh kar December mein 49.5 par pohoncha.

Agar yeh revision 50 ke upar chala jata hai, toh yeh sector mein expansion ka ishara hoga, jo January BOJ rate hike ke speculation ko barha sakta hai. Magar employment aur wage growth ke subcomponents ab bhi BOJ ke deliberations ke liye critical factors hain.

Inflationary pressures bhi central hain. Tokyo ka annual inflation rate December mein 3.0% tak barh gaya, jo November ke 2.6% se ziada hai aur bank ke 2% target se upar hai.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ne recently kaha ke economy aur prices bank ke projection ke mutabiq move kar rahe hain. Magar Governor Ueda ne kaha ke bank ko wages aur Trump policies ke effects ka tajziya karne ke liye aur waqt chahiye hoga. Aaj ka data BOJ ko ek naye saal ke rate hike par mazeed discussion karne ki wajah de sakta hai.

Upbeat PMI data USD/JPY pair ko 156.884 support level ki taraf kheench sakta hai aur shayad 155 tak bhi le ja sakta hai. Magar weaker data January hike ke bets ko kam kar sakta hai, jo pair ko 160 ki taraf le jaye ga.

USD/JPY Trends: US Data aur Fed Rate Path
US session mein, pending home sales, Chicago PMI, aur Dallas Fed Manufacturing data US dollar demand ko influence karenge.

Agar figures better-than-expected hote hain, toh yeh Fed ke less dovish rate path ko support karenge aur USD/JPY pair ko 161.920 resistance level ki taraf le ja sakte hain. Magar agar economic activity aur pending home sales girti hain, toh pair 156.884 support level ki taraf gir sakta hai.

Housing sector data critical rahta hai, kyun ke investors housing services sector ke inflation trends ko assess karte hain. Gharon ki kam demand housing services inflation ko kam kar sakti hai, jo Fed ke more dovish rate path ko support karegi.

USD/JPY Chart Analysis
USD/JPY ka yeh H1 time frame ka chart ek strong bearish trend dikhata hai. Price ne lagataar neeche girte hue key support level ko test kiya hai. Chart par Bollinger Bands ka istemal kiya gaya hai jo price ke movement ko clearly dikhata hai. Is waqt price neeche wali band ke qareeb hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke market oversold ho chuki hai. Bollinger Bands ke mutabiq jab price neeche wali band ko touch karta hai, toh yeh aksar ek reversal ya pullback ka signal hota hai. Lekin is case mein RSI (Relative Strength Index) ka analysis karna zaroori hai. Neeche wale panel mein RSI indicator dikh raha hai jo is waqt 30 ke qareeb hai. Jab RSI ki value 30 ya uske neeche ho, toh iska matlab hota hai ke market oversold hai, aur yeh buyers ke liye ek mauqa ho sakta hai position lene ka. Lekin oversold hone ka matlab yeh nahi hota ke price foran upar jayega; kabhi kabhi market zyada time tak oversold zone mein reh sakta hai. Isi liye, hamesha price action aur doosre indicators ka analysis karna zaroori hai.

Yeh chart is baat ko bhi dikhata hai ke recent candles ka size bara hai, jo strong selling pressure ko highlight karta hai. Lekin agar aap intraday ya scalping karte hain, toh yahan se chhoti chhoti trades lene ka mauqa mil sakta hai. Lekin agar aap long-term trader hain, toh zaruri hai ke market ka pura trend samjhein aur confirmation ka intezar karein. Risk management trading ka ek bohot important hissa hai. Har trade mein stop loss lagana zaruri hai taake kisi unexpected move ki wajah se aapka zyada nuksan na ho. Yeh bhi yaad rakhein ke Forex market mein profit lene ke liye patience aur discipline bohot zaruri hai. Aksar traders jaldi faislay kar ke apna capital kho dete hain. Is liye trading ka har faisla soch samajh kar karein aur indicators ka proper analysis karein. Agar aapko market ka direction confirm ho jaye, toh yeh chart ek acha signal de sakta hai entry aur exit ke liye. Lekin bina proper planning ke kabhi trade na karein. Trading ek skill hai jo waqt ke sath seekhi ja sakti hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Yen ka choutha salana nuqsan record karne ka Imkaan Hai

Yen ne Asian trade me Tuesday ko dollar ke muqable me apni position mazboot ki, aur teen din tak munafa hasil karte hue do hafton ke highs ko touch kiya, recent 5-mahine ke lows se door chalte hue. Yeh sub kuch Japanese authorities ki nagraani me hua, jo bar bar yen ki excessive weakness par khatra zyada karte rahe hain.

2024 ke aakhri trading din, Japanese currency apne chouthay salana nuqsan ki taraf barh rahi hai, jabke Bank of Japan (BOJ) ultra-easy monetary policies ka istemal karta raha hai, halan ke global central banks apni monetary policies normal karte ja rahe hain.

Price Movement
USD/JPY pair aaj 0.45% gir kar 156.14 yen per dollar par aa gaya, jo ke December 20 ke baad se sabse kam hai, jabke session-high 157.06 par tha.
Yen ne Monday ko dollar ke muqable me 0.6% ka munafa hasil kiya, recent 5-mahine ke lows 158.08 se door chalte hue.

Yen ko mazeed pressure US 10-year treasury yields ke girne ki wajah se bhi face karna para.

Bank of Japan (BOJ)
Bank of Japan ke latest meeting minutes ne policy makers ke darmiyan ikhtilaf ko highlight kiya, jahan kuch members short-term me interest rates badhane me zyada confident hain, jabke kuch abhi bhi wages aur Trump policies ki wajah se cautious hain.

BOJ ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ne pichle hafte kaha ke bank umeed karta hai ke agle saal tak economy 2% inflation target sustainably approach karegi.

Filhaal, January me BOJ ke 0.25% interest rate hike ke chances 55% hain, aur investors mazeed inflation aur labor data ka intezar kar rahe hain.

Yearly Performance
Yen iss saal dollar ke muqable me 10% se zyada gir chuka hai, aur chouthay salana nuqsan ka record banane wala hai.
Yen ko iss saal zyada pressure ka samna raha, aur July me 38 saal ka nadir 161.95 yen per dollar tak chala gaya.

Jabke BOJ ultra-easy policies par barqaraar raha, baqi central banks ne normalization ki taraf move kiya, jis se yield gap barhta gaya aur yen ki standing ko nuqsan pohcha.

US President-elect Donald Trump ki landslide election jeet ne bhi greenback ko yen aur doosre major rivals ke muqable me mazboot kiya, kyun ke Trump se inflationary economic policies ki umeed hai.

Kya January Rate Hike aur Yen Rally Ho Sakti Hai?
Bank of Japan ke rate hike ki timing ke mutaliq speculation USD/JPY price trends ko dictate kar raha hai.
US aur Japan ke darmiyan interest rate ka farq abhi bhi dollar ke haqq me hai, aur kisi immediate shift ka koi indication nahi.

BOJ ke support ke bawajood Q1 2025 ke rate hike ke liye, USD/JPY pair ne kam response diya hai.
Trump ki pro-growth policies ke potential se umeed hai ke 2025 me US price pressures barhenge, jo US Treasury yields ko 7-mahine ke highs tak le jayenge.

Iske muqable me, BOJ abhi tak January ya Q1 2025 ke rate hike ka greenlight nahi diya. BOJ ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ne kaha ke bank ko wages growth data aur Trump policies ke global economy par asar ka jaiza lene ke liye mazeed waqt chahiye.

Spring wage negotiations (shunto) tak BOJ holding pattern me reh sakta hai.

Economic Indicators ke Support
Economic indicators ke mutabiq January rate hike ka imkaan barh raha hai:

• Tokyo ki annual inflation rate December me 3% tak barh gayi, jo BOJ ke 2% target se zyada hai.
• Base pay 2.7% year-on-year barh gaya, jo 1992 ke baad se sabse zyada hai.
• Japan ke services sector ne December me expansion record kiya, stronger input prices ke saath.
• Household spending October me rebound hui, 2.9% month-on-month barh gayi, September ke 1.3% girawat ke baad.

December ke Reuters poll ke mutabiq, tamam respondents umeed karte hain ke BOJ March tak interest rates ko 0.50% tak raise karega. BOJ ke Summary of Opinions ne sabse hawkish signal diya, kuch board members December rate hike ke advocate hain.

USD/JPY Trends: US House Prices par Focus
US me house price data USD/JPY movements ko influence karega. Economists US housing sector ko US economy ke liye litmus test samajhte hain.

Agar prices softer hain, to housing sector services inflation aur consumer confidence dono girenge. Consumer confidence ke downward trends consumer spending ko kamzor karenge. Yeh combination ek dovish Fed rate path ko support karega, jo USD/JPY pair ko 155 tak kheench sakta hai. Wahin, agar house prices unexpected barhte hain, to pair 160 tak chala ja sakta hai.

USD/JPY Hourly Chart Analysis
USD/JPY ke hourly time frame chart ke mutabiq, market ne kaafi interesting moves dikhaye hain. Price ne 24 December ko steady upward trend start kiya, jisme 27 December tak bullish candles dominant rahin aur price 157.400 ke resistance level tak pohanch gayi. Iss level par sellers ka pressure barh gaya, jiske baad price neeche girna shuru hui.
30 December tak, market ne apne downward move mein 156.000 ke kareeb support level test kiya. Yeh support level kaafi strong laga, kyun ke price ne yahaan se bounce karte hue phir upward movement start ki. Ab chart ke mutabiq, price wapas 157.300 ke kareeb hai, jo ek critical zone hai. Agar yeh resistance tod diya jata hai, to agla bullish target 158.000 ho sakta hai. Lekin agar yeh tod nahi pata, to price dobara neeche gir kar 156.500 ya 156.000 par support test kar sakta hai.
Ab baat karte hain indicators aur candlestick patterns ki. Chart par green candles ka cluster dikhata hai ke buyers phir se market me interest le rahe hain. Lekin market ke overall momentum ko dekhte hue yeh zaruri hai ke traders apne risk management ka khayal rakhein, kyun ke 157.500 ke upar ka area ek strong resistance ban sakta hai.
Agar aap scalping karte hain, to short-term moves ke liye resistance aur support ke beech ka range utilize kiya ja sakta hai. Lekin swing traders ke liye yeh dekhna zaruri hoga ke price break karta hai ya nahi. Breakout ki situation me strong volume ke saath confirmation ka wait karein, jo trend ko sustain kar sake.
Is waqt market kaafi decisive zone par hai, jisme dono taraf ki possibilities hain. Traders ko apni strategy ko update karte rehna chahiye aur market ki movements ka dhyan rakhna chahiye. Trading signals ke liye hourly candle close ka wait zaruri hai.

Agar 4 hour timeframe chart ko monitor kiya jaye to abhi bhi upward trend ke stable continuation ka chance nazar aa raha hai.Stochastic indicator 5,3,3 zone 80 tak pohanch gaya hai jo buyers ki control ko zahir karta hai. Candlestick ka safar ab tak stable lag raha hai, aur price simple moving average zone 100 ke upar hai, jo pehle July ke end me drastic bearish journey ka samna kar chuka tha. Price ki situation ke mutabiq market ke daily analysis ke base par UsdJpy pair ka trend uptrend side ki taraf move karte hue lagta hai.Aaj tak ka market condition 157.31 position par ruk gaya hai.Pichle hafte ke trading period ke price journey se lagta hai ke ab tak sellers ka koi significant effort nazar nahi aaya price ko neeche lane ke liye, isliye increase ab bhi expected hai jo market ko uptrend side par wapas le ja sakta hai.Aaj ke trading me price journey ne weekly highest zone se halka downward correction experience kiya hai jo shayad bullish movement continue karna chahta hai. Market clearly buyer control me dikh raha hai, aur upward price trend agle kuch dino tak barqarar reh sakta hai. Candlestick ab tak 156.04 price area se door move kar chuka hai.Mujhe lagta hai ke bullish journey ka opportunity abhi bhi qabil-e-bharosa hai, kyun ke pichle hafte ka price increase candlestick ko 100-period simple moving average zone cross karne me madad de raha hai, jo bullish condition ke continuation ko mazboot karta hai.Agar market trend ka kuch dinon pehle ka analysis dekhein to buyer ki dominance zahir hoti hai aur price 100-period simple moving average area ke upar stable hai. Pichle hafte ke shuruat se price ka increase 158.08 ki highest zone ko test karne ki koshish karta lagta hai aur is baat ka bhi chance hai ke price naye highest position ko cross kar le. Is technical analysis ka nateeja yeh hai ke market situation upward journey par hai jo pichle kuch hafton me formed trend pattern ke mutabiq hai.Agar 4-hour timeframe ka analysis dekhein, to price buyers ke control me lagta hai. Buy position open karne ke liye, aap 157.46 position cross hone ka intezar kar sakte hain.Agla candlestick movement expected hai ke uptrend rahe aur sabse kareebi target 158.16 price zone ke aas paas ho sakta hai. Stoploss position transaction ke opening position se 40 pips ke aas paas rakhna behtar hai.
Trading plan ko pehle se tayar karna zaruri hai taake unpredictable market situations ka behtari se samna ho sake. Agar market plan ke khilaf chale, to loss ko properly control kiya ja sake. Naye saal ke trading me mubarak!