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Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling

Pound Sterling ne US Dollar ke muqablay mein 1.3400 ke aas paas apne gains ko pakra hua hai jabke US Dollar kamzor hota ja raha hai pichle halka inflation data ke baad. US core PCE inflation mein thodi si tezi yeh darshati hai ke Fed ki inflation ke khilaf jang abhi khatam nahi hui.

Investors Fed ke Chairman Jerome Powell aur BoE ke Greene ki taqreer ka intezar kar rahe hain.

Pound Sterling (GBP) aaj London session mein 1.3400 ke round-level resistance ke aas paas apne gains ko barqarar rakhe hue hai. GBP/USD pair ka outlook mazboot hai jabke Greenback saal ke lows ke nazdeek trade kar raha hai, kyunki Friday ko aayi data ke mutabiq US inflation August mein aur bhi kam hui hai. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ki value ko chhe badi currencies ke muqablay mein track karta hai, 100.20 ke key support ke nazdeek hai.

Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) report ne dikhaya ke saal bhar ka inflation 2.2% tak badha, jo ke 2.3% ke andazay aur July ke 2.5% ke muqablay mein kam hai. Yeh price pressures ki kami Federal Reserve (Fed) ke Chairman Jerome Powell aur unke colleagues ke liye khushi ka sabab ban sakti hai. Lekin, inflation par jeet abhi bhi pakki nahi hai kyunki core PCE price index – jo volatile food aur energy prices ko chhorke dekha jata hai aur jo Federal Reserve ka pasandida inflation measure hai – 2.7% tak badh gaya hai jo pehle ke 2.6% se zyada hai.

US inflation mein kami ne market ki umeedon ko interest rate cuts ke liye barha diya hai, lekin yeh lagta hai ke yeh 50 basis points (bps) ki aur kami ko pakka nahi kar raha kyunki Fed ab growing labor market risks aur economic slowdown ke liye zyada hoshiyar hai.

Is haftay investors kuch US economic data par tawajjo denge jaise ISM Manufacturing aur Services PMIs, ADP Employment, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September, aur August ke JOLTS Job Openings data, jo job market aur economy ki current health ke bare mein naye clues faraham karega.

Aaj ke session mein, investors Jerome Powell ki taqreer par tawajjo denge jo 17:00 GMT par hogi, aur umeed hai ke woh naye interest rate guidance faraham karenge. Powell ki commentary yeh darshati hai ke kya Fed dobara interest rates ko zyada se zyada 50 bps ki kami se ghatayega, jaise 18 September ko kiya gaya, ya phir 25 bps ki gradual kami ki taraf jaye ga.

Pound Sterling Technical Analysis

Pound Sterling ne European trading hours mein US Dollar ke muqablay mein 1.3400 ke key resistance ke aas paas apni position mazboot ki hui hai. GBP/USD pair ka near-term outlook mazboot hai kyunki 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) jo 1.3250 ke aas paas hai, upar ki taraf jhuka hua hai.

September ke shuruat mein, Cable ne apne corrective move se recovery ki aur December 28, 2023, ke high 1.2828 se banaye gaye trendline ke nazdeek se mazboot hui, jahan se 21 August ko breakout ke baad ek tezi se badhawas dekha gaya.

14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60.00 se upar hai, jo ke bullish momentum ki nishani hai.

Aage dekhte hue, Cable ko 1.3500 ke psychological level ke aas paas resistance ka samna karna padega. Neeche ki taraf, 20-day EMA jo 1.3235 ke aas paas hai, Pound Sterling ke bulls ke liye key support banega.

USD apne aakhri waqt mein U.S. dollar ke muqablay mein mazboot hota ja raha hai, jo ek aham rukh hai dekhne ke liye. GBP/USD ke four-hour chart par yeh upward movement puri tarah se chal rahi hai, aur buying opportunities kaafi favorable lag rahi hain. Maine kuch signals identify kiye hain jo long positions ke liye positive hain.
MACD histogram ne negative zone se shift hotey hue zero level ko cross kiya hai aur ab positive territory mein hai. Agar yeh movement 50% se zyada hoti hai aur open long position profitable ban jaati hai, toh stop-loss ko breakeven par le jaana samajdari hai. Halankeh order book mein dekhi gayi selling wave is growth ko support karti hai, lekin yeh abhi tak clear nahi hai ke price kitna upar ja sakta hai. Zyada volumes dekhne ko mile hain, jo aage ke development ke liye zyada space nahi chhodte. Buying momentum ab dheere dheere kam ho raha hai, aur price ab aise lag raha hai ke additional purchases ke liye bohot high hai. Isliye, mujhe umeed hai ke yeh pair jald hi reversal karega.

Market ke nazar mein, traders ko British pound ke liye koi achhe entry points nahi dikh rahe hain, lekin unka rukh bearish correction ki taraf hai. Asset price is waqt ek significant weekly liquidity level 1.3401 ke aas-paas test kar raha hai, jo shayad Asian trading session ke doran ho raha hai. Trader ko umeed hai ke correction opposite liquidity areas 1.3238 aur 1.3222 ke aas-paas aayegi, jinko unhoon ne pehle highlight kiya tha. Ab wo market close ka intezar kar rahe hain taake dekhein ke Asian traders kaise respond karte hain.

Maujooda growth speculative lagti hai, jo Britain mein economic decline aur U.S. ki economic strength se driven hai. Technically, agar resistance line tooti hai toh ye further buying opportunities ka signal ho sakta hai, lekin trader ka rukh ab bhi ek aur rebound ki taraf hai jo corrective decline ko trigger kar sakta hai, shayad 1.3366 tak.

GBP/USD pair ne American session ke dusre hise mein lagataar growth dekhi hai, jo trader ki analysis ko galat sabit karti hai. Unhoon ne 1.3401 level se rebound aur baad mein corrective decline ki tawaqqo ki thi, lekin asal mein unhoon ne sell trade mein entry ki aur phir bhi upward momentum dekha. Price steady rise par hai, jo upward-trending channel bana raha hai. Yeh recent movement ka exact sabab clear nahi hai, lekin lagta hai ke ek major player choti dips par asset ko khareed raha hai, jo price ko upar le ja raha hai. Yeh growth jo 6:31 PM Moscow time se shuru hui, shayad northward channel ke upper limit tak, jo 1.3431 ke aas-paas hai, chalu rahegi

Upward engulfing pattern tab banta hai jab ek choti bearish candlestick ke baad ek bari bullish candlestick banti hai jo pichle din ke price action ko mukammal tor par "engulf" kar leti hai. Is pattern ko aam tor par reversal signal samjha jata hai, jo yeh batata hai ke downward trend apni taqat kho raha hai aur buyers market par qaboo hasil kar rahe hain. GBP/USD ke case mein, upward engulfing pattern yeh reflect karta hai ke traders mein optimism barh raha hai ke pound dollar ke muqable mein qareebi waqt mein mazid taqat hasil kar sakta hai.

1.3395 ka level bohot zyada ahem hai kyun ke yeh woh point hai jahan buying interest barqarar rehne ka imkaan hai. GBP/USD mein long positions lene wale traders ke liye yeh level attractive ho sakta hai ke apni positions open ya aur zyada badhayein, kyun ke engulfing pattern yeh zahir karta hai ke price yahan se barh sakti hai. Lekin broader market conditions aur kisi bhi resistance levels ko madde nazar rakhna zaroori hai jo upward momentum ko rok sakte hain.
Pullback ka Imkaan


Is bullish signal ke bawajood, kuch indications hain ke price mein ek pullback ho sakta hai jab tak ke upward move mazeed barh na jaye. Short positions ya "shorts" kaafi imkaan hai ke 1.3310 ke aas paas profit lena shuru kar dein, jo un traders ka level hai jo pair mein temporary decline ka soch rahe hain. Yeh pullback market ko consolidation ka waqt de sakta hai, jisse price ko mazeed strength mil sakti hai taake phir se higher levels ki taraf move karein.

Rollback 1.3340 ya 1.3370 tak bhi ho sakta hai, jahan short sellers is opportunity ka faida utha sakte hain ke price apne upward momentum ko sustain nahi kar paa rahi. Yeh levels support aur resistance areas ke tor par kaam karte hain jahan price action zyada volatile ho sakta hai jab mukhtalif traders apni positions adjust karte hain.
Nazar Rakhne Wale Ahem Factors


Bohot se fundamental factors GBP/USD pair ki direction ko asar andaz kar sakte hain. UK aur US se anay wali economic data bohot ahem role ada karegi ke pound dollar ke muqable mein mazeed taqat hasil karta hai ya nahi. Maslan, agar UK ki GDP growth ya inflation data mazid strong aati hai, toh pound ko aur support milne ka imkaan hai. Dusri taraf, agar UK economy mein koi weakness hoti hai, toh traders long positions lene mein ehtiyaat karenge.

Isi tarah, US dollar ke developments bhi pair par asar dal sakte hain. Dollar ko rising interest rate expectations ka faida ho raha hai, aur agar Federal Reserve mazeed aggressive monetary tightening ka signal deta hai, toh dollar mazeed taqat hasil kar sakta hai, jisse GBP/USD ko upward move sustain karna mushkil ho sakta hai.

Market sentiment aur geopolitical factors bhi pair ki performance ko influence karenge. Maslan, agar koi unexpected political development hoti hai, khaaskar Brexit ya US-UK trade relations se related, toh market mein volatility aa sakti hai jo price action mein rapid shifts ka sabab ban sakti hai.
Nateeja


GBP/USD pair mein upward engulfing pattern ka formation yeh suggest karta hai ke abhi bhi upward move ka imkaan hai, aur 1.3395 ka level ek ahem interest point hai long traders ke liye. Magar, ek pullback ka imkaan abhi bhi barqarar hai aur 1.3310 ke aas paas ho sakta hai, aur rollback 1.3340 ya 1.3370 tak ho sakta hai jab tak ke pair apni upward trajectory ko phir se na pakray. Traders ko price action ko closely monitor karna chahiye aur technical aur fundamental factors ko dekhte hue apne trading decisions lena chahiye, aur risk management strategies ko apply karna zaroori hai taake unexpected market shifts se apni positions ko protect kiya ja sake.
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haftay ke trading session mein GBP/USD market bearish correction movement mein dikhai de rahi hai, lekin buyers ab bhi apni taqat dikhate hue market ko control kar rahe hain aur prices ko upar push kar rahe hain. Meri samajh ke mutabiq, kuch areas mein ab bhi bullish trading ka environment hai, jahan buyers prices ko 100-period simple moving average zone ke upar le ja sakte hain. Halaanke week ke aghaz mein candlestick ka position current level se ooper tha, lekin ab bhi lagta hai ke trend ka silsila upar jaari rehne ka imkaan hai, jab hum last few days ke field circumstances ko dekhte hain. Mahine ke aghaz se buyers lagataar price ko upar push karne ki koshish kar rahe hain, aur aaj tak price 1.3329 ko choo chuki hai. Subah ki adjustment ke baad thoda decline nazar aaya hai, lekin mera khayal hai ke bullish conditions ka barqarar rehne ka imkaan hai agle trend ke liye. 1.3376 zone ab tak break nahi hua, aur buyers isko test karne ki koshish kar sakte hain, taake yeh bullish direction ke liye ek additional barrier ban sake. Bade trend ke market conditions ab bhi bullish hain, aur agar yeh target zone cross ho gaya, toh buyers ke paas market ko dobara control karne ka acha moka hoga. Is liye, GbpUsd pair par Buy option ko ek behtareen option mana ja sakta hai agar aaj raat koi increase ka signal milta hai. Kal ka bearish correction jo ke market ke gain ka ishara tha, wo ab tak sustain nahi kar paya hai, aur stochastic indicator line 20 range mein hai. Umeed hai ke yeh analysis aapke liye guide ka kaam kare jab koi position open ki jaye. Filhaal, bina kisi crossover confirmation ke GBPUSD par sell karna thoda risky lagta hai. Main wait kar raha hoon ke ema8 ema21 ko pierce kare aur crossover bane, tab main dobara sell karunga. Medium-term mein, sell ka ideal target monthly pivot area par 1.300 tak wapas pohanchne ka hoga. Lekin yeh itna asaan nahi lagta jab tak USDX khud direct strengthen

GBP/USD H1 Analysis Assalam-o-Alaikum doston, aaj dopahar mein GBP/USD currency pair ka H1 time frame par analysis karne ki koshish karunga. Guzishta chand dino mein GBP/USD H1 time frame par kaafi pressure mein raha hai aur jab market aaj close hogi, toh yeh currency pair ab bhi upar ya neeche trade kar raha hoga. Is ke baraks, is mein izafa ho sakta hai. Jab market mein bari movement hoti hai, toh hum technical analysis ke zariye GBP/USD currency pair mein entry lene ki koshish karenge.
Mein H1 time frame par trend ko samajhne ke liye moving average indicator period 21 aur moving average indicator period 34 ka bhi istimaal karunga. Filhaal price apne moving average indicators ke upar move kar rahi hai, isliye GBP/USD bullish trend mein hai, jahan yeh agle resistance 1.3264 ke price level tak push karne ki salahiyat rakhta hai.

Kal Friday ko GBP/USD market pair par sellers ka zyada control tha, jo ke buyers ke bullish trend ko resistance area 1.3153-1.3150 ke neeche rokne mein kaamyab rahe. Yeh resistance area sellers ne mazbooti se defend kiya, jis se price neeche bearish move karne lagi, halankeh yeh distance ziada bara nahi tha, lekin sellers ka control zyada dikhai diya.

Daily time frame par Moving Average indicator ke zariye dekha jaye, toh price ab bhi Red MA 50 area 1.2954-1.2956 ke upar hai, aur bullish candlesticks dobara dominate kar rahi hain. Lekin, strong seller determination ki wajah se jab market close hogi, toh sellers ke paas bearish move ko continue karne ka moqa ho sakta hai. Unka target hoga ke price ko buyer support area 1.3035-1.3033 ke neeche le jayein, aur agar yeh level break ho gaya, toh Red MA 50 area tak raste khul sakte hain.

Monday ke trading session mein ab bhi bearish trend continue hone ke chances hain, jab tak sellers prices ko apne resistance area ke neeche rakhe hue hain. Bearish seller ka pehla target buyer support area 1.3104-1.3102 hoga, aur agar yeh level validly break ho gaya, toh agla target buyer demand support area 1.3055-1.3053 hoga.

GBP-USD ka movement bullish hai, USD
GBP/USD karansi pair ne Friday ko Asian trading session ke doran positive territory mein trade kiya, jo ke US dollar ki lagataar kamzori ki wajah se supported tha. Market participants ab eagerly August ke US non-farm payrolls data ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo ke Federal Reserve ke interest rate decision ke expectations ko baray had tak mutasir karega. Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report, jo pehle hafte mein release hui thi, ne August mein private sector job growth mein kami ko dikhaya, jo Fed ke taraf se rate cut ki potential ka ishara deti hai. Filhal, markets September 17-18 ke aane wale meeting mein rate cut ki expectations ko price kar rahe hain. Pound bhi Bank of England (BoE) se potential rate cut ki expectations ki wajah se supported hai. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey ne ye toh kaha hai ke inflationary pressures kam ho rahe hain, lekin unhone rate cut karne mein jaldbazi se bhi mana kiya hai. Investors ne BoE se 25% chance of rate cut ko price kar liya hai, lekin November tak rate cut ki possibility ko puri tarah se price kiya ja chuka hai.
GBP/USD pair ne Thursday ko kam volatility ke saath aur upar ki taraf movement ki. Market mein British currency kharidne ki koi wazeh wajah nahi thi. Thursday ka rise quotes mein ek correction ke tor par samjha jaa sakta hai, lekin abhi tak US currency ke ird gird koi excitement nahi hai, jo ke do saal se girti ja rahi hai. Aur agar hum dekhein, to jo movement hum abhi dekh rahe hain, wo kisi naye downward trend ke aaghaz ki tarah nahi lagti jo kam az kam ek saal tak chalega. Lagta hai ke market thoda correct hua hai aur ab ek naye wave ke liye tayaar hai, jo ke be-bunyad kharidari ki hai. Magar market ke nazar mein yeh kharidari justified hai. Agar hum fundamentals aur macroeconomics ki baat karein, toh British currency ke growth mein koi logic nahi hai.
Downward trend tab tak qaim hai jab tak price Ichimoku indicator lines aur descending trend line ke neeche rahta hai. Shayad yeh hi waqt mein US dollar ka ek hope hai. Jab se yeh maloom hua hai ke America mein inflation 2.5% tak kam ho gaya hai, toh Federal Reserve har agle meeting mein rate ko kam kar sakta hai. Agar market ne waqai monetary policy easing ko price kar liya hai, jaise hum samajhte hain, to phir yeh acha hai—dollar ko bachaya ja sakega. Agar nahi, toh US dollar ko ek lambi girawat ka samna ho sakta hai. Issi dauran, European Central Bank aur Bank of England ki monetary policies market participants ko filhal koi

GBP/USD price action dekha, jisme market mai ek wazeh upward trend tha. Trading session ke aghaz par, price dheere dheere barhti rahi aur 1.3183 ke key trading level ko break karne mai kamiyab rahi. Yeh breakout 1.3183 ke upar bohot ahem tha, kyun ke isne market sentiment mai ek tabdeeli ko zahir kiya aur traders ke liye ek buy signal generate kiya. Aam tor par is breakout ke baad umeed yeh hoti hai ke price barhti rahegi aur agle major resistance level 1.3261 ko target karegi. Pura Monday ke doran, GBP/USD pair ne apni position 1.3183 ke level ke upar barqarar rakhi, jo ke market mai bullish sentiment ko reinforce kar raha tha. Jab price consistently aik significant support ya resistance level ke upar rahti hai, to yeh current trend ki strength ko zahir karti hai. Is case mai, price ka 1.3183 ke upar rehna yeh dikhata hai ke buyers market mai control mai hain aur pair ko aglay target ki taraf, yani 1.3261 resistance, push kar rahe hain. Jese ke anticipated tha, upward momentum Tuesday tak qaim raha, lekin GBP/USD pair ne session ke aghaz mai ek narrow range mai move kiya. Yeh range-bound movement aksar is wajah se hoti hai kyun ke market apni agle significant move se pehle consolidate karti hai. Consolidation ke baad, price phir se momentum gain karke pehle se identified resistance level, 1.3261, tak barhne lagi. Yeh movement Monday ke initial buy signal ko confirm karti hai, kyun ke price successfully anticipated resistance level tak pohanch gayi thi.



Lekin, jese hi GBP/USD pair 1.3261 resistance level ke qareeb pohancha, price action mai shift dekha gaya. Resistance levels aksar psychological barriers ke tor par kaam karte hain, jahan sellers aksar market mai shamil hote hain, jo ke market mai reversal ka sabab ban sakta hai. Is case mai, price ne 1.3261 ke resistance ke qareeb reverse karna shuru kiya, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke sellers dominate kar rahe hain aur market ko neeche ki taraf push kar rahe hain. Significant resistance levels par reversal aksar trend ke tabdeel hone ka ishara dete hain, aur traders in levels ko closely monitor karte hain taake bullish momentum ke kamzor hone ke asraat ko dekh sakein.

GBP/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka jaiza liya gaya hai. Abhi ke liye yeh pair upar ki taraf ja raha hai, aur agar hum daily chart dekhein toh yeh kuch dinon se sideways movement dikhata hai. Ahem sawal yeh hai ke kya yeh bullish aur sideways trend barqarar rahega ya phir koi tabdeeli dekhne ko milegi. Aaj ke technical outlook ko dekhtay hain. Moving averages aur technical indicators dono hi buy ka mashwara de rahe hain. Abhi tak koi wazeh faisla nahi kiya gaya hai. UK se kuch zaroori updates aaye hain, lekin wo neutral lag rahi hain. Jabke US se aane wali khabrein zyada optimistic hain, aur kuch ahem updates baqi hain. Is hawale se, yeh pair apni upward momentum ko barqarar rakhega, aur 1.3259 ke resistance level tak buying ka imkaan hai. Agar selling hoti hai, toh yeh support level 1.3179 tak ja sakti hai. Bullish trend ka imkaan zyada hai, aur sideways pattern se breakout expected lag raha hai.
Aaj, yeh pair sharply bara, apna target hit kar ke reverse hua. Chart dikhata hai ke pair ne resistance level 1.3254 ko test kiya, phir pull back kiya, aur ab 1.3203 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai. RSI neutral hai lekin upar ki taraf dekh raha hai, jabke Awesome Oscillator (AO) sell signal de raha hai. Pair abhi tak kal ke trading range ke andar hai, lekin indicators potential growth ki taraf ishara karte hain. Main expect karta hoon ke 1.3254 resistance level ka dobara test hoga, aur mumkin hai ke 1.33 range tak break ho. Halat abhi kuch zyada optimistic nahi hain. Buyers ka momentum kamzor lag raha hai, halanke din promising shuru hua tha. GBP/USD abhi tight range mein chal raha hai, jo 1.3139 aur 1.3262 ke darmiyan hai. Agar pair 1.3199 se upar reh sakta hai, toh mazeed upward movement ho sakti hai. Magar aaj ka ahem point 1.3262 resistance ko break karna hai, jo naye highs ka rasta khol sakta hai. Agar pair 1.3139 se neeche chala gaya, toh short-term downtrend phir se shuru ho sakta hai, aur yeh 1.2999 tak gir sakta hai.
Aaj ke liye, agar hum 4-hour chart par technical nazar daalain, toh hum dekhte hain ke pair ko 1.3130 ke breakout resistance ke upar temporary support mil raha hai, aur 50-day moving average bhi price ko support kar raha hai. Average moving average dobara neeche move hui hai. Isliye, agle chand ghanton mein uptrend ka imkaan hai, jisme pehla target 1.3180 ka hoga. Yeh growth ko barhane ke liye ek channel khol sakta hai jo ke 1.3210 aur 1.3230 tak jaye ga. Yaad rahe ke agar trading 1.3130 ke neeche aur sirf 1.3100 ke upar rahti hai, toh pair ki downward correction dobara shuru ho sakti hai, jisme targets 1.3065 aur 1.3040 se start honge. Niche chart dekhain:
Iss waqt pair weekly highs se thoda upar trade kar raha hai. Large support areas test ki gayi hain, aur barhti hui tension ke bawajood, unhone apni integrity barqarar rakhi hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke upward vector ki ahmiyat hai. Growth ko barqarar rakhne ke liye price ko 1.3082 ke upar mazid taqat hasil karni hogi, jo ke main support area ki sarhad hai. Agar yeh area dobara test hone ke baad rebound hota hai, toh mazeed growth ka imkaan hoga aur price target area jo 1.3427 aur 1.3500 ke darmiyan hai, us tak pohnch sakti hai.

e kiya, jo ke US dollar ki lagataar kamzori ki wajah se supported tha. Market participants ab eagerly August ke US non-farm payrolls data ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo ke Federal Reserve ke interest rate decision ke expectations ko baray had tak mutasir karega. Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report, jo pehle hafte mein release hui thi, ne August mein private sector job growth mein kami ko dikhaya, jo Fed ke taraf se rate cut ki potential ka ishara deti hai. Filhal, markets September 17-18 ke aane wale meeting mein rate cut ki expectations ko price kar rahe hain. Pound bhi Bank of England (BoE) se potential rate cut ki expectations ki wajah se supported hai. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey ne ye toh kaha hai ke inflationary pressures kam ho rahe hain, lekin unhone rate cut karne mein jaldbazi se bhi mana kiya hai. Investors ne BoE se 25% chance of rate cut ko price kar liya hai, lekin November tak rate cut ki possibility ko puri tarah se price kiya ja chuka hai.

GBP/USD pair ne Thursday ko kam volatility ke saath aur upar ki taraf movement ki. Market mein British currency kharidne ki koi wazeh wajah nahi thi. Thursday ka rise quotes mein ek correction ke tor par samjha jaa sakta hai, lekin abhi tak US currency ke ird gird koi excitement nahi hai, jo ke do saal se girti ja rahi hai. Aur agar hum dekhein, to jo movement hum abhi dekh rahe hain, wo kisi naye downward trend ke aaghaz ki tarah nahi lagti jo kam az kam ek saal tak chalega. Lagta hai ke market thoda correct hua hai aur ab ek naye wave ke liye tayaar hai, jo ke be-bunyad kharidari ki hai. Magar market ke nazar mein yeh kharidari justified hai. Agar hum fundamentals aur macroeconomics ki baat karein, toh British currency ke growth mein koi logic nahi hai.

Downward trend tab tak qaim hai jab tak price Ichimoku indicator lines aur descending trend line ke neeche rahta hai. Shayad yeh hi waqt mein US dollar ka ek hope hai. Jab se yeh maloom hua hai ke America mein inflation 2.5% tak kam ho gaya hai, toh Federal Reserve har agle meeting mein rate ko kam kar sakta hai. Agar market ne waqai monetary policy easing ko price kar liya hai, jaise hum samajhte hain, to phir yeh acha hai—dollar ko bachaya ja sakega. Agar nahi, toh US dollar ko ek lambi girawat ka samna ho sakta hai. Issi dauran, European Central Bank aur Bank of England ki monetary policies

GBP/USD Analysis
Spot price ne ek dafa phir taqat dikhai hai, aur consolidation range jo ke 1.3290 ke aas-paas thi, us se breakout kar gaya hai. Is bullish movement ne Cable ko naye short-term highs tak pohchaya hai, aur agle targets 1.3340 ki taraf set hain. Iss waqt, pair lagbhag 1.2298 ke area mein trade kar raha hai, jo ke currency pair ke liye ek positive outlook zahir karta hai.

GBP/USD ke Fundamentals:

GBP/USD pair U.S. dollar ke muqablay mein mazid taqat hasil kar raha hai, kyun ke USD kamzor ho raha hai. Yeh long-term trend chalne ke imkaanaat hain, khaaskar ab jab ke UK mein consumer spending mazid barh rahi hai aur recent upward momentum ka sath de rahi hai. July ke retail sales data ne 1% ka izafa dikhaya, jo umeedon se zyada tha aur Pound ke bullish outlook ko mazeed taqat di.

Pichle hafte UK se aayi Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ki report ne bhi Pound ke hawalay se positive sentiment ko barhawa diya. UK ki economy ne doosri quarter mein quarter-on-quarter 0.6% ka izafa kiya, jo ke umeedon ke mutabiq tha. Saal dar saal GDP growth 0.9% rahi Q2 mein, jo pehle quarter ke 0.3% se behtar thi. Yeh iktisadi indicators GBP mein confidence ko barhawa de rahe hain.

Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Hamari pehle ki umeedon ke bawajood ke spot price 1.3300 mark ke upar break karega, currency abhi tak 1.2800 se 1.3340 ke range mein trade kar raha hai, aur closing higher hui hai 1.3335 par, jo ke 1.27% ka gain zahir karta hai. Waqt ke current price movements dikhate hain ke price abhi ek sideways trading phase mein hai. Aaj ke liye traders ko umeed hai ke pair 1.3280 aur 1.3350 ke darmiyan oscillate karega.

Haalan ke short-term outlook optimistic lagta hai, lekin ehtiyaat ki zarurat hai. Agar pair 17 July ke high 1.3041 ke neeche dip karta hai, toh yeh ek potential pullback ka signal ho sakta hai. 1.3200 ka psychological level agla support ka kaam karega, aur iske baad low 1.3172 ke paas hoga. In levels ka monitoring traders ke liye ahem hoga jo ke current market dynamics ko samajhne ki koshish kar rahe hain.

Monday ke din significant price action dekha, jisme market mai ek wazeh upward trend tha. Trading session ke aghaz par, price dheere dheere barhti rahi aur 1.3183 ke key trading level ko break karne mai kamiyab rahi. Yeh breakout 1.3183 ke upar bohot ahem tha, kyun ke isne market sentiment mai ek tabdeeli ko zahir kiya aur traders ke liye ek buy signal generate kiya. Aam tor par is breakout ke baad umeed yeh hoti hai ke price barhti rahegi aur agle major resistance level 1.3261 ko target karegi. Pura Monday ke doran, GBP/USD pair ne apni position 1.3183 ke level ke upar barqarar rakhi, jo ke market mai bullish sentiment ko reinforce kar raha tha. Jab price consistently aik significant support ya resistance level ke upar rahti hai, to yeh current trend ki strength ko zahir karti hai. Is case mai, price ka 1.3183 ke upar rehna yeh dikhata hai ke buyers market mai control mai hain aur pair ko aglay target ki taraf, yani 1.3261 resistance, push kar rahe hain.
Jese ke anticipated tha, upward momentum Tuesday tak qaim raha, lekin GBP/USD pair ne session ke aghaz mai ek narrow range mai move kiya. Yeh range-bound movement aksar is wajah se hoti hai kyun ke market apni agle significant move se pehle consolidate karti hai. Consolidation ke baad, price phir se momentum gain karke pehle se identified resistance level, 1.3261, tak barhne lagi. Yeh movement Monday ke initial buy signal ko confirm karti hai, kyun ke price successfully anticipated resistance level tak pohanch gayi thi.

Lekin, jese hi GBP/USD pair 1.3261 resistance level ke qareeb pohancha, price action mai shift dekha gaya. Resistance levels aksar psychological barriers ke tor par kaam karte hain, jahan sellers aksar market mai shamil hote hain, jo ke market mai reversal ka sabab ban sakta hai. Is case mai, price ne 1.3261 ke resistance ke qareeb reverse karna shuru kiya, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke sellers dominate kar rahe hain aur market ko neeche ki taraf push kar rahe hain. Significant resistance levels par reversal aksar trend ke tabdeel hone ka ishara dete hain, aur traders in levels ko closely monitor karte hain taake bullish momentum ke kamzor hone ke asraat ko dekh sakein

USD apne aakhri waqt mein U.S. dollar ke muqablay mein mazboot hota ja raha hai, jo ek aham rukh hai dekhne ke liye. GBP/USD ke four-hour chart par yeh upward movement puri tarah se chal rahi hai, aur buying opportunities kaafi favorable lag rahi hain. Maine kuch signals identify kiye hain jo long positions ke liye positive hain. MACD histogram ne negative zone se shift hotey hue zero level ko cross kiya hai aur ab positive territory mein hai. Agar yeh movement 50% se zyada hoti hai aur open long position profitable ban jaati hai, toh stop-loss ko breakeven par le jaana samajdari hai. Halankeh order book mein dekhi gayi selling wave is growth ko support karti hai, lekin yeh abhi tak clear nahi hai ke price kitna upar ja sakta hai. Zyada volumes dekhne ko mile hain, jo aage ke development ke liye zyada space nahi chhodte. Buying momentum ab dheere dheere kam ho raha hai, aur price ab aise lag raha hai ke additional purchases ke liye bohot high hai. Isliye, mujhe umeed hai ke yeh pair jald hi reversal karega.

Market ke nazar mein, traders ko British pound ke liye koi achhe entry points nahi dikh rahe hain, lekin unka rukh bearish correction ki taraf hai. Asset price is waqt ek significant weekly liquidity level 1.3401 ke aas-paas test kar raha hai, jo shayad Asian trading session ke doran ho raha hai. Trader ko umeed hai ke correction opposite liquidity areas 1.3238 aur 1.3222 ke aas-paas aayegi, jinko unhoon ne pehle highlight kiya tha. Ab wo market close ka intezar kar rahe hain taake dekhein ke Asian traders kaise respond karte hain.

Maujooda growth speculative lagti hai, jo Britain mein economic decline aur U.S. ki economic strength se driven hai. Technically, agar resistance line tooti hai toh ye further buying opportunities ka signal ho sakta hai, lekin trader ka rukh ab bhi ek aur rebound ki taraf hai jo corrective decline ko trigger kar sakta hai, shayad 1.3366 tak.

GBP/USD pair ne American session ke dusre hise mein lagataar growth dekhi hai, jo trader ki analysis ko galat sabit karti hai. Unhoon ne 1.3401 level se rebound aur baad mein corrective decline ki tawaqqo ki thi, lekin asal mein unhoon ne sell trade mein entry ki aur phir bhi upward momentum dekha. Price steady rise par hai, jo upward-trending channel bana raha hai. Yeh recent movement ka exact sabab clear nahi hai, lekin lagta hai ke ek major player choti dips par asset ko khareed raha hai, jo price ko upar le ja raha hai. Yeh growth jo 6:31 PM Moscow time se shuru hui, shayad northward channel ke upper limit tak, jo 1.3431 ke aas-paas hai, chalu rahegi

Upward engulfing pattern tab banta hai jab ek choti bearish candlestick ke baad ek bari bullish candlestick banti hai jo pichle din ke price action ko mukammal tor par "engulf" kar leti hai. Is pattern ko aam tor par reversal signal samjha jata hai, jo yeh batata hai ke downward trend apni taqat kho raha hai aur buyers market par qaboo hasil kar rahe hain. GBP/USD ke case mein, upward engulfing pattern yeh reflect karta hai ke traders mein optimism barh raha hai ke pound dollar ke muqable mein qareebi waqt mein mazid taqat hasil kar sakta hai.

1.3395 ka level bohot zyada ahem hai kyun ke yeh woh point hai jahan buying interest barqarar rehne ka imkaan hai. GBP/USD mein long positions lene wale traders ke liye yeh level attractive ho sakta hai ke apni positions open ya aur zyada badhayein, kyun ke engulfing pattern yeh zahir karta hai ke price yahan se barh sakti hai. Lekin broader market conditions aur kisi bhi resistance levels ko madde nazar rakhna zaroori hai jo upward momentum ko rok sakte hain.
Pullback ka Imkaan


Is bullish signal ke bawajood, kuch indications hain ke price mein ek pullback ho sakta hai jab tak ke upward move mazeed barh na jaye. Short positions ya "shorts" kaafi imkaan hai ke 1.3310 ke aas paas profit lena shuru kar dein, jo un traders ka level hai jo pair mein temporary decline ka soch rahe hain. Yeh pullback market ko consolidation ka waqt de sakta hai, jisse price ko mazeed strength mil sakti hai taake phir se higher levels ki taraf move karein.

Rollback 1.3340 ya 1.3370 tak bhi ho sakta hai, jahan short sellers is opportunity ka faida utha sakte hain ke price apne upward momentum ko sustain nahi kar paa rahi. Yeh levels support aur resistance areas ke tor par kaam karte hain jahan price action zyada volatile ho sakta hai jab mukhtalif traders apni positions adjust karte hain.
Nazar Rakhne Wale Ahem Factors


Bohot se fundamental factors GBP/USD pair ki direction ko asar andaz kar sakte hain. UK aur US se anay wali economic data bohot ahem role ada karegi ke pound dollar ke muqable mein mazeed taqat hasil karta hai ya nahi. Maslan, agar UK ki GDP growth ya inflation data mazid strong aati hai, toh pound ko aur support milne ka imkaan hai. Dusri taraf, agar UK economy mein koi weakness hoti hai, toh traders long positions lene mein ehtiyaat karenge.

Isi tarah, US dollar ke developments bhi pair par asar dal sakte hain. Dollar ko rising interest rate expectations ka faida ho raha hai, aur agar Federal Reserve mazeed aggressive monetary tightening ka signal deta hai, toh dollar mazeed taqat hasil kar sakta hai, jisse GBP/USD ko upward move sustain karna mushkil ho sakta hai.

Market sentiment aur geopolitical factors bhi pair ki performance ko influence karenge. Maslan, agar koi unexpected political development hoti hai, khaaskar Brexit ya US-UK trade relations se related, toh market mein volatility aa sakti hai jo price action mein rapid shifts ka sabab ban sakti hai.
Nateeja


GBP/USD pair mein upward engulfing pattern ka formation yeh suggest karta hai ke abhi bhi upward move ka imkaan hai, aur 1.3395 ka level ek ahem interest point hai long traders ke liye. Magar, ek pullback ka imkaan abhi bhi barqarar hai aur 1.3310 ke aas paas ho sakta hai, aur rollback 1.3340 ya 1.3370 tak ho sakta hai jab tak ke pair apni upward trajectory ko phir se na pakray. Traders ko price action ko closely monitor karna chahiye aur technical aur fundamental factors ko dekhte hue apne trading decisions lena chahiye, aur risk management strategies ko apply karna zaroori hai taake unexpected market shifts se apni positions ko protect kiya ja sake.
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis -


GBP/USD ne April se ek mazboot uptrend ko barqarar rakha hai, jise 34-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ki support milti rahi hai. Yeh pair abhi haal hi mein 1.3434 ki peak tak pohoncha jo lagbhag 2.5 saal ki buland tareen satah thi, lekin wahan usay 1.3427 ke aas-paas mazboot mukhalifat ka saamna karna pada. 25 September ko bulls ne is level ko todne ki koshish ki, lekin kamyaab nahi ho paye, jisse price wapas 34-day EMA ki taraf retreat kar gayi. Is resistance ko break karne ki kai koshishon ke bawajood, bulls ko momentum wapas paane mein mushkil hui hai.
Filhaal GBP/USD ki price EMA ke kareeb ghoom rahi hai, aur jab tak yeh is level ke upar hai, bullish sentiment barkarar rehne ki umeed hai. Lekin, technical indicators is waqt kamzori ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain. Stochastic Oscillator overbought zone mein enter ho chuka hai, jabke Relative Strength Index (RSI) bhi 70 level se neeche aa raha hai, jo market ke thakne ka izhar karta hai. Is ke ilawa, 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) apni positive momentum kho rahi hai, jo is baat ki nishandahi karta hai ke neeche ki taraf pressure barh sakta hai.

Ahm Support Aur Resistance Levels

Agar GBP/USD pair EMA se neeche break karti hai, to yeh ek gehri correction ki taraf ja sakti hai, jahan pehle support levels 1.3265 aur 1.3170 par hain. Agar price mazeed girti hai, to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level 1.3113 par aayega, aur uske baad agla target 1.3000 ho sakta hai. Iske baraks, agar bulls dobara taqat pa kar 1.3429 ke upar push karte hain, to yeh uptrend ke continuation ka signal hoga aur GBP/USD mazeed upar ki taraf barh sakti hai.








Bunyadi Wazahat

GBP/USD ki recent performance mein kaafi volatility nazar aayi hai, jo UK aur US ke economic factors ki wajah se hai. US dollar ki kamzori ne pair ke upward trajectory ko support kiya hai. Haali mein US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) ne report kiya ke 2024 ke dusre quarter mein US GDP 3.0% se grow hui hai, jo market expectations ke mutabiq thi. Yeh data positive hai lekin dollar ko taqat nahi de paya hai.

Iske ilawa, US initial jobless claims 218,000 tak gir gaye hain, jo labor market ki resilience ki taraf ishara karte hain. Lekin, Federal Reserve officials ki dovish remarks, jese ke Fed Governor Lisa Cook ne 50 basis point rate cut ki baat ki, ne dollar ki girawat ko aur barhaya hai. Cook ne employment mein “downside risks” ka zikar kiya jo is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke Fed ki monetary policy itni aggressive nahi hogi.

Dusri taraf, UK ki economy ne bhi apni resilience dikhayi hai, khas kar Bank of England (BoE) ki monetary policy ke hawalay se. British pound ne mazeed taqat hasil ki hai kyunke ummed hai ke BoE inflationary pressures ki wajah se apne rate-tightening approach ko lamba karke rakhega. GBP/USD ki upward momentum market ki buying interest se support hoti nazar aa rahi hai, lekin abhi bhi markets mein ehtiyat barqarar hai kyunke sab ki nazar US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index par hai.
Yeh bunyadi uncertainty, aur US aur UK ki divergent monetary policies ke saath, GBP/USD pair mein volatility ko jari rakhegi. Is liye, traders ko hoshiyar rehne ki zaroorat hai jab tak market ki direction aur economic data wazeh nahi ho jata.

Aaj mein apni trading analysis GBP/USD par kar raha hoon. Agar hum is waqt ke GBP/USD market timeframe par dekhein, to chart se yeh dikhai deta hai ke GBP/USD ne Friday ko $1.3354 ka level hit kiya, aur is waqt GBP/USD 1.3375 par trade kar raha hai. U.S. dollar index (DXY) ka GBP/USD ke sath inverse taluq hai. Is waqt USD index 100.78 par hai. Is chart ke timeframe par, GBP/USD ka general trend bearish hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator 50 level se neeche ja raha hai, jo sell-confirm signals de raha hai. Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator bhi chart mein regular sell signal de raha hai. Moving averages bhi bearish signal dikhate hain kyun ke GBP/USD 20-day exponential moving average ke neeche trade kar raha hai. Sath hi, 50-day exponential moving average bhi current GBP/USD price se upar hai, jo ek bearish signal hai.GBP/USD ke liye pehla resistance level 1.3394 hai. Agle do strong resistance levels 1.3432 aur 1.3943 hain. Doosri taraf, pehla support level GBP/USD ke liye 1.3354 hai. Agar yeh level toot jata hai, to aglay do strong support levels 1.3312 aur 1.2832 hain. Yad rahe, yeh support aur resistance levels ke liye ek waqt ka frame hai, is liye agar aap is chart ke hisaab se GBP/USD buy ya sell karte hain, to aapko lambi muddat ke liye sabr karna padega, lekin reward bhi acha milega.

Akhir mein yeh kehna zaroori hai ke Fed ke faislay ne resistance levels ko break karne aur naye heights tak pohanchne ka rasta diya. Bank of England ka central bank ka qarz na bechne ka faisla bhi growth momentum mein izafa kar raha hai. To yeh sab ko dekhte huye hum yeh nateeja nikaal sakte hain ke bulls ke liye bullish trend ko merge karne ke liye 1.3400 level ko break karna zaroori hai, lekin fundamentals ki kamzori ki wajah se yeh kaam mushkil lag raha hai. Halanki yeh activity realistic lagti hai, yeh clear nahi hai ke yeh plan kitna waqt le ga, khaaskar 1.3520 level tak pohanchne ke liye. Agar yeh nahi hota, to bulls shayad 1.3182 level ko break nahi kar sakein ge, jabke sellers pair ko 1.3234 ke support level tak push karain ge. Bears ka is level par consolidation downward trend ko mazid mazboot karega aur downtrend ke continuation ke liye rasta khol dega. Lekin mere khayal mein, north jane ka chance abhi bhi hai. Mera maan-na hai ke overall fundamentals ne GBP/USD mein decline ko rok diya hai aur hum wapis bullish potential par hain, jahan yeh hona chahiye. Is liye, dono directions mein movement ki guzarish abhi bhi hai.