aud/usd

Australian dollar (AUD) ne U.S. dollar ke muqablay mein 0.01% ki halki kami dekhi, jo ke 0.6517 par close hui. Yeh kami pichle din ke 0.85% ke faida ke baad aayi hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke AUD ko upar ki taraf momentum banaye rakhne mein mushkil ho rahi hai. Reserve Bank of Australia ne ab interest rate cuts ke imkaan ko khatam kar diya hai aur kaha hai ke core inflation rate sirf dheere dheere kam hoga, jo AUD ke liye recent trading sessions mein challenges paida kar raha hai. Pehle umeed thi ke currency lower levels par stabilize ho jayegi aur dheere dheere recover karegi; magar international markets mein declines ne Australian dollar ko aath mahine ke low par push kar diya.

Tuesday subah, jab Asian trading shuru hui, AUD/USD pair ne recovery ke nishan dikhaye. Daily chart par, AUD/USD abhi kaafi oversold hai, jo short covering ka potential darshata hai. Agar market risk sentiment behtar hoti hai, to AUD/USD ke liye short-term corrective rebound dekha ja sakta hai. Bank of Japan ke Deputy Governor ke bayan ke baad, pair ne Wednesday ko 0.6574 tak uchhal kiya. Magar Australian dollar ki upward momentum lagta hai fade ho rahi hai aur trading ke end tak selling pressure ka saamna karna pada. Filhal, daily chart par AUD/USD low-range consolidation phase mein hai, aur kai technical indicators oversold conditions se kuch relief dikha rahe hain.

**Technical Analysis of AUD/USD**

Short term mein, agar koi badi khabar ya stimulus na aaye, to AUD/USD ka narrow-range consolidation continue karne ki umeed hai. Expected fluctuation range 0.6440 se 0.6580 ke beech honi chahiye.

Is waqt, AUD/USD pair market conditions ke jawab mein consolidate kar raha hai. Technical indicators jaise RSI aur MACD bhi pair ke current trajectory ko support karte hain. Agar market sentiment aur global economic factors stable rahte hain, to yeh consolidation range barqarar reh sakti hai.

Traders ko ehtiyaat baratni chahiye aur kisi bhi significant news ya economic data releases par nazar rakhni chahiye jo AUD/USD pair ke movements ko influence kar sakti hai. Market risk sentiment mein koi achanak tabdeeli fluctuation range ko badal sakti hai, jo substantial price movements ko janam de sakta hai.

Summary mein, current market conditions aur technical indicators ko dekhte hue, AUD/USD pair short term mein narrow-range consolidation continue karne ke liye mutawaqqa hai. Magar traders ko updates aur global events ke changes ko dekhte rehna chahiye.

AUD/USD Analysis:
Thursday ko AUD/USD pair ne US Dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein faida hasil kiya, kyunki USD ki kamzori ka asar last week ke data ke baad barh gaya tha. Yeh data Federal Reserve (Fed) ke hawkish expectations ko fuel kar raha tha, jo pehle USD ko impact kar chuki thi. Pair ne January ke shuru se sabse ucha level touch kiya, jo Australian Dollar ki taqat ko dikhata hai. Lekin, Aussie Dollar ke further gains ka potential RBA ke hawkish stance aur last week ke robust data ke saath kuch limit ho sakta hai.

AUD/USD ke Fundamentals:

Australia ki headline inflation rate thodi kami hokar 3.1% year-over-year (YoY) tak aa sakti hai, jabke core inflation rate 3.4% YoY par stable rehne ki ummeed hai. Fed ke potential easing ke sath RBA ki restrictive policy bhi AUD/USD ko aane wale mahino mein support kar sakti hai. Traders in economic indicators par nazar rakh rahe hain kyunki yeh market trends ko significantly influence kar sakte hain.

Australia ki economic situation is week mein kaafi shaant hai aur ismein kisi bade event ka hona mushkil hai, jo RBA ke hawkish stance ke chalte pair ko apne peers ke muqablay mein majbooti de sakta hai. Dusri taraf, Fed ke September mein rate cut ka 70% probability hai, jo aane wale economic indicators par depend karega. Market abhi RBA ke late-year mein rates barhane par bet kar rahi hai, lekin foran focus dono central banks ke monetary policies ke behtareen differences par hai.




Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Friday ko AUD/USD pair mein thodi si kami dekhne ko mili, lekin overall market outlook positive hai. Technical indicators jaise Relative Strength Index (RSI) aur Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) positive territory mein hain. AUD/USD pair ne chaar din ke winning streak ko achieve kiya hai aur January ke baad se jo levels nahi dekhe gaye, un tak pahuncha hai, jo traders ke behtareen sentiment ko confirm karta hai.

Technical Levels:

Traders ko overbought conditions ke signs ke liye vigilant rehna chahiye, jo ek potential correction ka signal ho sakta hai. Next bullish targets AUD/USD pair ke liye 0.6650 aur 0.6680 hain. Support levels jo dekhne chahiye woh hain 0.6500, 0.6450, aur 0.6430.

AUD/USD Analysis 09 August 2024
Maine H4 timeframe chart ko monitor kiya, jo dikhata hai ke aakhri kuch dinon se AUD/USD price movement bullish candlesticks ke under thi. Is hafte bhi price ka bullish trend dominant hai. Agar August ke shuruat mein candlestick Simple Moving Average indicator ke neeche thi, lekin hafte ke aakhri tak yeh isse upar chali gayi. Yeh condition price movement ko rozana uchi position par close kar rahi hai, jo pichle hafte ke highest price level se bhi zyada hai, jo market ke bullish hone ka indication hai.

Technical analysis ke ilawa, Relative Strength Index (14) ki lime line ab 50 ke upar chali gayi hai, jo bullish trend ka signal hai. Histogram bar bhi zero level ke upar chali gayi hai aur MACD indicator (12,26,29) ki dotted yellow line bhi upar ki taraf mod rahi hai, jo market ke upar jane ka signal hai. Yeh condition daily timeframe se bhi milti hai.



Conclusion:

AUD/USD currency pair ke indicators se data aur market monitoring ke results se yeh pata chalta hai ke is hafte market bullish candlesticks se dominate ho rahi hai, jo upward trend ka indication hai aur expected hai ke bullish movement continue karegi. Meri rai yeh hai ke BUY trading position open karna ek achha waqt hai jo profits generate kar sakta hai. Lekin, ideal candlestick position ke liye zaroori hai ke price 0.6610 tak pohnche. Agle bullish target ke liye 0.6650 level set kiya ja sakta hai, aur stoploss level 0.6580 par rakhna chahiye.

AUD/USD Currency Pair Analysis
Filhaal, AUD/USD currency pair apni 50-day aur 200-day moving averages se niche trade kar rahi hai, jo bearish trend ko indicate karta hai. Yeh position yeh batati hai ke Australian dollar US dollar ke muqablay mein short-term aur long-term dono hi perspectives se kamzor hai, aur market mein negative sentiment barqarar hai.

Dono moving averages se neeche hona ahm hai. Traders moving averages ko trends aur potential reversal points identify karne ke liye use karte hain. 50-day moving average ko short-term trend indicator aur 200-day moving average ko long-term trend indicator ke taur par dekha jata hai. Jab currency pair dono se niche trade karti hai, to yeh aam taur par bearish market sentiment ko signal karta hai, jahan downward pressure dominant hota hai.

Is context mein, ek ahm technical event jo dekhna hai, wo hai moving average crossover. Traders do types ke crossovers par dhyan dete hain: "golden cross" aur "death cross." Golden cross tab hota hai jab 50-day moving average 200-day moving average ko upar se cross karta hai, jo generally bullish trend aur potential upward reversal ko signal karta hai. Is ke muqablay, death cross tab hota hai jab 50-day moving average 200-day moving average ko niche se cross karta hai, jo bearish trend ko reinforce karta hai aur downward momentum ko indicate karta hai.

Filhaal, jab AUD/USD in moving averages ke neeche trade kar raha hai, death cross ka potential traders ke liye chinta ka sabab ban raha hai. Agar yeh crossover hota hai, to yeh bearish trend ke continued honay ka signal ho sakta hai, jo Australian dollar par zyada selling pressure ko janam de sakta hai.

Lekin, market dynamics sirf technical indicators se hi nahi, balke fundamental factors se bhi influence hoti hain. AUD/USD pair ke liye yeh factors shamil hain: Australia aur United States ke beech interest rate differential, GDP growth, employment data, trade balances, aur geopolitical events aur central bank policies. For instance, agar Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) US Federal Reserve ke muqablay mein zyada dovish stance leta hai, to yeh Australian dollar par downward pressure ko barha sakta hai.

Traders ko dusre technical indicators aur chart patterns ko bhi monitor karna chahiye. Misal ke taur par, Relative Strength Index (RSI) yeh insights de sakta hai ke pair oversold hai, jo short-term reversal ya kam se kam temporary bounce ko signal kar sakta hai. Support aur resistance levels bhi critical hain; agar pair kisi significant support level ke qareeb pohnchti hai, to yeh kuch buying interest ko attract kar sakti hai, jo further declines ko stabilize karne mein madadgar ho sakta hai.

Nateejah yeh hai ke AUD/USD pair ka apni 50-day aur 200-day moving averages se niche trade karna bearish trend ko indicate karta hai. Moving average crossover is downward momentum ko reinforce kar sakta hai. Lekin, ek comprehensive analysis jo technical aur fundamental factors dono ko incorporate kare, zaroori hai pair ki future direction aur potential reversal points ko samajhne ke liye.

AUD/USD Currency Pair Analysis
AUD/USD currency pair filhaal bearish trend dikha raha hai aur 0.6605 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai. Yeh level bohot ahm hai kyunki yeh ongoing market sentiments aur macroeconomic factors ko reflect karta hai jo Australian dollar (AUD) aur US dollar (USD) ko influence karte hain. Bearish movement yeh indicate karti hai ke AUD USD ke muqablay mein value lose kar raha hai, jo ek lambi muddat se chal raha hai aur traders aur investors is pair ko closely monitor kar rahe hain.

Is waqt ke bearish outlook ke piche kai factors hain. Global level par, USD ko kai influences se strength mili hai, jaise ke safe-haven status jo economic uncertainty ke waqt investors ko attract karta hai. Yeh USD ki strength partially Federal Reserve ke monetary policies ke wajah se hai, khaaskar interest rate hikes jo inflation ko control karne ke liye kiye gaye hain. Higher interest rates in the US foreign capital ko attract karte hain, jo USD ki demand ko barhata hai aur AUD jese currencies par downward pressure daalti hai.

Dusri taraf, Australian dollar commodity prices, khaaskar metals aur energy, se heavily influenced hai, kyunki Australia in resources ka major exporter hai. Global commodity prices ka girna AUD ko heavy impact kar sakta hai. China ki economic conditions bhi AUD par significant effect daalti hain, jo Australia ka ek bara trading partner hai. China apni economic challenges jaise slowing growth aur struggling property sector ka saamna kar raha hai, jisse Australian exports ki demand kam ho sakti hai, aur AUD aur kamzor ho sakta hai.

Lekin, prevailing bearish trend ke bawajood, 0.6605 ka current price level shayad ek significant market movement ke liye stage set kar raha hai. Historical data yeh suggest karti hai ke critical levels aksar sharp movements se pehle aate hain, jab market decide karti hai ke continue karna hai ya reverse karna hai. Agar AUD/USD pair kuch technical support levels ko break karti hai, to yeh ek zyada substantial decline ko trigger kar sakta hai. Conversely, agar yeh levels par strong support milta hai, to ek reversal ho sakta hai jo bullish movement ko lead kar sakta hai.

AUD/USD pair ke liye potential catalysts kuch aise hain:

1. Federal Reserve Policy Changes: Agar Fed apni monetary policy ke approach mein koi changes karta hai, to iska immediate impact ho sakta hai. Agar Fed interest rates ko pause ya reduce karne ka signal deta hai due to slowing inflation ya economic concerns, to USD kamzor ho sakta hai aur AUD ko boost mil sakta hai.

2. Global Economic Developments: Khaaskar China ke developments bhi AUD/USD pair ko influence kar sakti hain. Agar China se positive economic data ya stimulus measures milte hain, to Australian exports ki demand barh sakti hai aur AUD strong ho sakta hai. Conversely, China ki economic deterioration further bearish trend ko exacerbate kar sakti hai.

3. Australian Domestic Indicators: Australia ke economic indicators jaise employment data, GDP growth rates, aur inflation figures bhi AUD/USD pair ko sway kar sakte hain. Strong economic performance in Australia AUD ko bolster kar sakti hai, jabke weaker-than-expected data current bearish trend ko reinforce kar sakti hai.

4. Geopolitical Events aur Trade Developments: Global trade tensions ya conflicts ka escalation bhi AUD/USD pair ko impact kar sakta hai. Agar trade tensions ya conflicts badhte hain, to investors USD ko safe-haven asset ke taur par choose kar sakte hain, jo AUD par aur pressure daal sakta hai. Conversely, agar yeh tensions resolve hoti hain, to AUD apni strength regain kar sakta hai.

Technical analysis bhi future movements ko predict karne mein crucial role play karti hai. Traders key support aur resistance levels, trendlines, aur moving averages ko dekh kar potential breakouts ya reversals ko anticipate karte hain. 0.6605 level par traders bearish trend ke continuation ya possible reversal ke signs ko dekh rahe hain. Is analysis ka outcome market ka next significant movement determine kar sakta hai.

Nateejah yeh hai ke jabke AUD/USD pair filhaal 0.6605 par bearish trend mein hai, kai factors suggest karte hain ke ek big movement horizon par ho sakti hai. Yeh movement downward ho sakti hai, bearish trend ko continue karti hai, ya reversal towards bullish outlook ke taraf bhi ho sakti hai. Yeh depend karega global economic conditions, central bank policies, aur technical market signals par. Traders aur investors ko in factors ko closely monitor karna chahiye, kyunki yeh coming days mein AUD/USD market navigate karne ke liye zaroori clues provide karenge.

AUD/USD Price Outlook
Aaj hum AUD/USD currency pair ke price trends ka tajziya karenge. Hal ka scena kafi flat nazar aa raha hai, jisme ek interesting channel hai jiske horizontal boundaries kafi smooth hain. Yeh channel market ke current phase ko achi tarah se reflect karta hai, jise moving average (M.A.) breakdown dono directions mein dikhayi deta hai. Ho sakta hai hum is trend ke initial ya intermediate phase mein hon, lekin abhi tak iska conclusion nahi aaya hai aur isse kisi aur conclusion ko assume karne ka koi compelling reason nahi hai. Ab tak significant news ka market par koi asar nahi pada, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke aane wale dinon mein activity ka high likelihood hai, jabke Monday ke stagnant hone ki possibility hai kyunki movement potential low hai.

Trading Strategy

Is context mein, ek straightforward strategy yeh ho sakti hai ke upper boundary par sell kiya jaye aur lower boundary par buy kiya jaye, jinke approximate limits 0.6551 aur 0.6491 ke aas-paas hain. Naye hafte ke shuru hone se pehle, chaliye daily (D1) chart ko analyze karte hain.

Market Analysis

Pair ab bhi ek persistent downtrend mein hai, halankeh pichle kuch dino mein fluctuations hui hain jo overall trend ko change nahi kar paayi. Pichli ascending wave structure invalidated ho gayi jab latest decline ne pehle ke low ko exceed kar diya. Pichli wave ka bottom, jo ab resistance level 0.6578 bana hai, price ne iske neeche settle kar ke phir se retest kiya aur phir gir gayi. Jabke price abhi tak is level ko nahi pahunchi hai, yeh ek minor oversight ho sakti hai. Price pichli wave lows se drawn main ascending line ke paas pahunchne ki koshish kar rahi hai; lekin is line ko bina correction aur 0.6578 level ke retest ke pahunchna mushkil lag raha hai.

Current Indicators

Commodity Channel Index (CCI) oversold zone se upward trend dikha raha hai. Current price levels par selling karna prudent nahi lagta, kyunki main line ki taraf rise hone ki potential hai aur significant resistance nazar nahi aa raha. Pullback ka intezar karna aur phir upward movement ke anticipation mein kuch points ke liye aim karna zyada advantageous hoga.

AUD/USD Currency Pair Analysis
Currency pair ne Friday ke early trading mein 0.6607 ke kareeb do hafte ke high ko touch kiya, jo ke Federal Reserve aur Reserve Bank of Australia ke darmiyan interest rate gap ke narrow hone ki speculation ki wajah se tha. Yeh upward trend market expectations ko reflect karta hai ke dono central banks ke darmiyan monetary policies ki divergence kam ho rahi hai, aur pair ab 0.6592 ke level ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai.

AUD/USD ke Fundamentals:

Recent US economic data expectations se kuch kamzor nikli hai, jisme labor market aur economy mein kamzori ke signs dekhe gaye hain. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ki aakhri meeting ke minutes ne indicate kiya ke kai policymakers ko lagta hai ke US economic growth dheemi ho rahi hai. Isne yeh umeed barhadi hai ke Fed September ki meeting mein rates ko kam kar sakta hai, jisse US Treasury bond yields mein tezi se girawat aayi aur USD teen hafte ke low par chala gaya.

FOMC ki July meeting ke minutes ne highlight kiya ke Fed officials foran rate cut ke liye hesitant the. "Kuch participants ne Committee ke data-dependent approach par zordiya, jisme monetary policy decisions economy ke evolution par dependent hain na ke preset path par," minutes mein note kiya gaya. Financial markets ab September mein 25 basis point rate cut ki 66% probability anticipate kar rahe hain, jo ke is hafte ke shuru mein 63% thi, CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq.



Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Pair ke upper boundary of ascending wedge pattern ko 0.6610 ke near challenge karne ki umeed hai, jiske baad psychologically significant 0.6600 mark aata hai. Traders ko 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) jo ke 0.6616 par hai, ke saath pair ka interaction dhyan se dekhna chahiye, khaaskar jab indicators overbought conditions dikhate hain. Potential upside targets 0.6650 aur 0.6700 ke resistances ke saath align karte hain, jabke crucial support levels 0.6470, 0.6500, aur 0.6550 par hain.

Conclusion:

Pair ab bhi strong momentum dikha raha hai, positive technical indicators jaise ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) aur Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) ke support se. January ke highs ke kareeb pahunchne ke saath, bullish outlook promising lag raha hai. Lekin, traders ko vigilant rehna chahiye aur kisi bhi reversal ke signs par nazar rakhni chahiye.

AUD/USD ka jo jo jor hai, wo ek lambe waqt ki bulandi tak pohnch gaya hai, jo ke kuch ahem wajah se hua hai. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne apni hawkish policy barqarar rakhi hai, jo is baat ka ishara hai ke shayad interest rates abhi bhi high rahenge taake inflation ko control kiya ja sake. Ye tajziya China ke strong inflation data se barh gaya hai, jo ke Australia ka bara trading partner hai.

Iske ilawa, global markets me positive risk sentiment ne Aussie ko support diya hai, kyunke traders ko lagta hai ke U.S. Federal Reserve shayad 50 basis points ka rate cut kar sakti hai. Ye umeed soft U.S. economic data ki wajah se hai, jo Fed ko monetary policy ko dheela karne par majboor kar sakti hai. Isse U.S. dollar kamzor hua hai, jo AUD ko zyada faida pohanchata hai.

In sab supportive factors ke bawajood, outlook cautious hai. RBA ne kaha hai ke future rate decisions upcoming economic data par depend karenge, jaise consumer confidence aur employment figures. Agar consumer confidence barhta hai to consumer spending bhi barh sakti hai aur inflation bhi, jo RBA ko aur rate hikes par ghor karne par majboor kar sakta hai.

Australia ka labor market bhi bohot ahmiyat rakhta hai. Agar labor market tight hai to wage growth aur consumer spending barh sakti hai, jo demand-driven inflation ko janam de sakta hai. Ye situation RBA ko apni tightening stance ko barqarar rakhne par majboor kar sakti hai. Lekin agar labor market me kamzori ke asaar hon, to RBA apni rate hike cycle ko rok sakta hai ya phir ulta kar sakta hai.

AUD/USD currency pair RBA ke hawkish stance, China ke strong inflation data, aur U.S. Federal Reserve se rate cut ki expectations ki wajah se support hasil kar raha hai, jiski wajah se U.S. dollar kamzor hua hai.

Lekin, is pair ka aage ka rukh zyada tar Australia ke upcoming economic data aur RBA ke response par depend karega. Traders ko in developments par nazar rakhni chahiye taake dekh saken ke AUD/USD ka upward trend continue kar sakta hai ya nahi.

Daily chart par, ek lambi candle nazar aa rahi hai jo ek lambi downward swing ke baad aayi hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke sellers ka control kam ho gaya hai aur buyers momentum hasil kar rahe hain. Ye ek valid bullish signal hai.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock ke hawkish comments ke bawajood, China ke strong inflation figures Australian Dollar (AUD) ko zyada faida de rahe hain. Thursday ko, Bullock ne inflation ke risks par nazar rakhne ki zaroorat par zordiya aur zaroorat par rates barhane ki dhamki bhi di. Is ke ilawa, National Bureau of Statistics ne Friday ko report kiya ke China mein consumer prices July mein pichle saal ke muqablay 0.5% barh gaye, jabke umeed thi ke yeh sirf 0.3% barhenge.
Aur details ke mutabiq, headline CPI July mein 0.5% barha, jo ke February ke baad ka sabse zyada hai, jabke Producer Price Index 22ve mahine ke liye gir gaya, July mein 0.8% gir gaya. Magar, is data ne China mein gehri economic downturn ke concerns ko kam kiya, jo ke US recession ke fears ke kam hone ke sath investors ke risky assets ke liye appetite ko barhata hai. Yeh US Dollar (USD) ko kamzor karta hai aur risk-sensitive Aussie ki taraf flows ko barhata hai.

Greenback ko US Treasury bond yields ke naye girawat ka bhi samna hai, jo ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein bade interest rate cuts ki bets ke wajah se hai. US ke kisi relevant economic data ke baghair, fundamental backdrop AUD/USD pair ke liye further appreciation ki prospects ko support karta hai. Halankeh spot prices ab tak pehle chaar hafton ke liye strong weekly gains register kar rahi hain aur agle Wednesday ko US CPI report par focus hai.

**AUD/USD Technical Outlook:**
AUD/USD ne ek multi-week top tak pohnch gaya hai aur yeh kuch factors ke combination se support hasil kar raha hai.
RBA ke hawkish outlook aur July ke strong Chinese inflation figures ne support diya hai.
Positive risk tone aur 50 bps Fed rate cut ki bets USD ko kamzor kar rahe hain aur Aussie ko faida pohnchate hain.
AUD/USD pair is hafte ke strong recovery move ko 0.6350 area se build kar raha hai, jo ke November 2023 ke baad ka sabse low level hai, aur Friday ko do aur aadha hafton ka high pohnch gaya. Spot prices ab 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke upar acceptance dikhate hain, aur bulls 0.6600 ke round-figure mark ke upar sustained strength ka intezar kar rahe hain naye bets lagane se pehle.

Federal Reserve ke khilaf na jao, yeh market principle traders ko shuru se hi samajhni chahiye, lekin agar is par amal nahi hota to bade faide nahi honge. Lagta hai markets central banks ke sath poker khel rahi hain, aur unka August ka maneuvers zyada tar ek bluff lagta hai. Bank of Japan ne is bait ko grab kiya, market turbulence barqarar rehne par overnight rate barhane ka wada kiya. Kya Fed is trap mein aa jayega? AUD/USD ka future is par depend karta hai.
5 August ko jo hua, uska ta comparison Black Monday, October 19, 1987 se kiya gaya hai. Dono situations mein assets ki movements tezi se hui, magar in events ke darmiyan kuch farq bhi hai. Saal ke shuru se lekar mid-summer tak, S&P 500 ne koi significant correction nahi dekhi thi, aur investors tech stocks kharidne, Japanese yen bechne, aur carry trading mein busy the. Yeh sab August mein ulta ho gaya.

Iska trigger BOJ ka monetary policy ka tightening tha, jo ke US economy ke recession ke dar se barh gaya. Ab investors ke paas ek hi sawal hai: Kya financial markets, including Forex, mein panic khatam ho gaya hai?

Kal, Australian dollar ne significant growth dekhi, 0.6570 ki resistance aur 50.0% Fibonacci retracement ko overcome kiya. Ab, yeh pair expect kiya ja raha hai ke apni growth ko 61.8% corrective level tak sustain karega, jo ke MACD line ke resistance ke kareeb hai aur target level 0.6640 ke paas hai.

Marlin oscillator tez se barh raha hai, lekin yeh abhi bhi negative territory mein hai, jo price ko kal ki levels se niche le ja sakta hai. Agar price 0.6570 ke niche stable hoti hai to yeh 0.6482 tak wapas aa sakti hai. Agar kal ke high se upar break hota hai to yeh sustained growth ka signal hoga.

4-hour chart par, price ne 0.6570 ke upar stabilize kar liya hai. Marlin rising position mein hai, jo ke bullish situation ka indication hai. Dono scales par forces ke distribution ko dekhte hue, further growth ka imkaan hai.

Australian Dollar (AUD) ne is haftay US Dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein kaafi taqat hasil ki hai, aur yeh November 2023 ke lows se rebound kar raha hai. AUD/USD pair filhal do aur aadha hafton ke high ke nazdeek trade kar raha hai, jo ke positive economic developments aur kamzor hota US dollar ki wajah se hai. AUD ki taqat barhane ka ek key catalyst Friday ko release hui behtar Chinese inflation data thi. Is data ne Chinese economy ke slowdown ke concerns ko kam kiya, jo ke investor confidence ko boost karta hai. China, Australia ka bara trading partner hai, isliye yeh positive economic outlook Australian dollar ke liye faida mand sabit hua hai. Iske ilawa, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ki Governor Michelle Bullock ke hawkish comments ne bhi AUD ko support kiya. Bullock ne inflation risks par nazar rakhne ki zaroorat aur future mein interest rate hikes ke potential ka zikr kiya, jo ke Australian dollar ki appeal ko barhata hai.

US dollar pressure mein hai, jo ke kai factors ki wajah se hai. US Treasury yields ke girne ki wajah Federal Reserve ke rate cut ki expectations hain, jo greenback ko kamzor kar raha hai. Saath hi, overall positive market sentiment aur US recession ke fears ke kam hone ki wajah se risky assets, jaise ke Australian dollar, safe-haven currencies ke muqablay mein behtar perform kar rahe hain.





Technically, AUD/USD pair ne positive momentum dikhaya hai, price crucial 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke upar trade kar rahi hai. Jabke pair 0.6600 level ke aas-paas resistance ka samna kar raha hai, bullish indicators jese ke RSI aur Stochastic further upside ka potential darshate hain. Agar 0.6600 level se decisive break hota hai aur 20-day aur 50-day SMAs ko overcome kiya jata hai, to upward movement 0.6700 aur 0.6745 ke nazdeek broken uptrend line tak tez ho sakti hai.

AUD/USD pair ka near term mein volatility rehta nazar aa raha hai, aur aane wali US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report ek significant market-moving event ban sakti hai. Halankeh current fundamental backdrop further appreciation ko support karta hai, lekin economic indicators, central bank policies, aur geopolitical developments ko monitor karna zaroori hai taake exchange rate par potential impacts ka andaza lagaya ja sake.

Friday ko, pair apne teesre lagatar din ke faide ka lutf utha rahi hai, aur lagbhag 0.6579 ke aas-paas DXY ke muqablay mein trade kar rahi hai. Yeh upward trend Australia ke chal rahe high inflation rates ki wajah se hai, jo ke Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ko kisi bhi potential rate cuts ko delay karne par majboor kar raha hai. RBA ka rates ko steady rakhne ka faisla Australian Dollar ko mazbooti deta hai, aur iske positive movement ko aur bhi support karta hai.
AUD Ka Mazbooti, Kamzor Trade Surplus Aur US Dollar Ki Kamzori Ke Bawajood:

Aaj pair ne resilience dikhayi hai, apni high position ko maintain kiya hai, halankeh Asian trading session ke dauran weak Trade Surplus release hua. Yeh strength khaas taur par US Dollar ki kamzori ke bawajood hai, jo is hafte ke shuru mein release hue soft economic indicators ke impact se kamzor hua hai. AUD ki in adverse conditions ko bardasht karne ki capacity iski underlying strength aur market participants ke continued confidence ko darshati hai.

Australian economy mein kuch softening ke asaar hain, lekin high inflation ab bhi ek dominant concern hai. RBA ka rates cut karne se reluctant rehna—shayad ise G10 ke aakhri major central banks me se ek banata hai jo aisa karega—Australian Dollar ki current strength ko contribute karta hai. Market participants future rate hikes ke signals ko keenly observe kar rahe hain, jo ke AUD ki gains ko aur barha sakte hain.

H1 Chart AUD/USD Bullish Trend Ko Potential Reversal Signals:



Pair ne opening bell se ek notable bullish trend dikhaya hai, pehle ke 0.6351 ke critical support level par rejection ke bawajood. Agar 0.6610 resistance se decisive break hota hai, to pair 0.6650 region ki taraf move kar sakta hai, jo market mein bullish sentiment ko aur mazboot karega.

Currently, pair Friday ko 0.6581 ke nazdeek trade kar rahi hai. Hourly chart ke technical analysis se pata chalta hai ke ek rising wedge pattern ke niche breakdown hua hai, jo potential bearish reversal ka signal de raha hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI overbought territory ke nazdeek consolidate kar raha hai, jo ke further decline par correction ka indication hai.

AUD/USD Analysis 09 August 2024



Lagta hai ke price situation pehle trading period, yani July, ki trend ko follow kar rahi hai aur bullish wave ke saath chal rahi hai. AUD/USD pair ka rukh bullish hai, jo 4-hour aur daily charts par increase pattern ke formation se zahir hai. Hafte ke shuru mein sellers ne prices ko 0.6351 tak kam karne ki koshish ki, magar agle din buyers ne control hasil kar liya, jis se bearish trend delay ho gaya. Pichle kuch dinon mein drastic increase dekha gaya hai, jo early market opening zone ko bhi cross kar gaya hai.

Jab tak journal update kiya gaya, candlestick ab bhi bullish hai, jo buyers ke price increase karne ke efforts ko darshata hai. Technically, uptrend continue karne ka chance abhi bhi clear hai agle kuch dinon ke liye. Mere khayal se, agla trading plan Buy position ke entry opportunities dhoondhna zyada behtar hai. Lekin, jabke trend up hai, yeh bhi mat bhoolen ke girne ka bhi chance hai, jaise pichle mahine ke trading mein hua, halankeh yeh chance abhi bhi chhota hai, kisi ko nahi pata ke aage kya hoga. Weekend market situation ke sath aksar unexpected surprises bhi ho sakte hain.

4-hour time frame par AUD/USD pair bullish momentum mein hai, jahan hum dekh sakte hain ke pattern upar ki taraf move kar raha hai aur simple moving average zone 100 ko cross karne ka chance hai. Last few hours ki market conditions se graph ko dekhe to yeh clear hai ke uptrend chal raha hai. Candlestick ki position 0.6595 ke aas-paas hai, jo signal hai ke market trend buyer control ke sath chal raha hai aur bearish trial ko delay kar raha hai. Isliye bullish market journey par focus rakhna behtar hai.

Trading Recommendations: BUY (4-hour chart)

Opening Position Strategy:

AUD/USD market analysis ke mutabiq, increase continue karne ka opportunity hai. Traders 0.6612 zone ke aas-paas price barhne par Buy position open kar sakte hain. Us area tak pohnchne se pehle Buy position open karne se bachen taake loss ya long-term floating loss se bach sakein. Agar market scenario ke mutabiq chalti hai, to profit ka mauka bada ho sakta hai.

Buyers ka control candlestick ko stabilize karne ki koshish kar sakta hai taake Uptrend side ki taraf move ho sake. Bullish journey ke liye target area 0.6654 ke aas-paas ho sakta hai, jo dusre buyers ko price increase support karne ka mauka dega. Agar target increase is haftay ke end tak achieve ho jata hai, to buyers ke paas candlestick ko higher price area tak increase karne ka mauka ho sakta hai.

Australian Dollar ne maqbuliyat hasil ki:
Australian Dollar (AUD) ne resurgence dikhaya hai jab US inflation statistics ne umeed jagayi ke Federal Reserve interest rates ko kam kar sakti hai. Recent figures ne US Consumer Price Index (CPI) mein expected se kam izafa dikhaya, jo yeh imply karta hai ke US mein inflationary pressures kam ho rahe hain. Is se yeh prediction hui ke Federal Reserve rate increases ko slow down kar sakti hai, jis se AUD ko support mila, jo global economic uncertainties ke wajah se pressure mein tha.

China ka Trade Surplus Barhta Hai:
China ka June ka trade surplus significant tor par barh ke $99.05 billion ho gaya, pehle ke $82.62 billion ke muqable mein. Is trade balance ka izafa strong export performance ke wajah se hai, bawajood ke global demand mein variety hai. China ke trade surplus ka Australian economy par positive impact hota hai, kyun ke China ek bara trading partner hai. Ek strong Chinese economy usually higher demand karti hai Australian commodities ke liye, jo Australian dollar ko support karta hai.

Fed ka Inflation Target:
Austan Goolsbee, ek Federal Reserve official, ne recently yeh kaha ke US economy apne target inflation rate 2% ki taraf progress kar rahi hai. Yeh positive outlook recent data par mabni hai jo moderated inflation growth dikhata hai, jo ek stable economic environment bana sakta hai. Federal Reserve ka 2% inflation target maintain karne ka irada long-term economic planning aur market stability ke liye crucial hai. Yeh target economic growth aur price stability ko balance karta hai, jo sustainable economic conditions ko ensure karta hai.

Market Reactions aur Implications:
Australian Dollar ki recovery in developments ke darmiyan ek complex interplay of international economic factors ko reflect karti hai. Jab US potentially apne aggressive rate hike stance ko ease kar sakta hai, toh AUD jaise currencies improved investor sentiment aur increased risk appetite ka faida uthate hain. Additionally, China ke robust trade figures strong economic activity ko indicate karte hain, jo commodity-exporting countries jaise Australia ke liye vital hai.

**AUD/USD Pair Review**

**Overview**:
Kal, AUD/USD market mein sellers ka pressure tha, jaisa maine kaha tha. Sabse kharab surathaal mein hum 0.6480 level cross kar sakte hain. Ab, market ne ek certain point par reach kar liya hai aur selling side aaj bhi stable rahegi. Iske ilawa, US JOLTS job opening rate bhi aaj market ko influence kar sakta hai. Ye perfect forecast business decisions ko anchor karta hai, guiding business decisions with patience aur restraint ke sath.

**Selling Position**:
Aaj, hum ek sell-side position open karne par bhi gaur kar sakte hain. Iska matlab kuch sell karna is umeed mein ke iski price gir jayegi, taake trader isse lower price par wapas khareed sake. Ek sell position ko effectively execute karne ke liye, traders ko apne analysis ke base par specific targets set karne chahiye, jismein support aur resistance levels, trend lines, aur key technical indicators shamil hain. Aaj sellers stable lag rahe hain, lekin 0.6509 ke level par entry buyers ko jaldi advantage lene mein madad kar sakti hai.

**Important Events**:
Aaj, FOMC Acting Master's speech aur JOLTS job opening rate release hone wale hain. Isliye, apne account ko accordingly manage karen. Yad rakhen ke AUD/USD market sentiment ko samajhna ek continuous learning process hai jo technical analysis, chart reading, aur key principles ke knowledge ka combination maangta hai.

**Technical Analysis**:
Sellers ke conditions ko carefully evaluate karen, various charts ko effectively use karen, aur phir MACD aur Fibonacci ko supporting tools ke taur par use karen. Is tarah se, traders market information par decisions banane ke dilemma se bach sakte hain. Is week ka news data traders ke liye important hai, kyunki US dollar se related bohot saari news data release hone wali hai. Isliye, apne AUD/USD trading plan ko is ratio par base karen.

**Conclusion**:
AUD/USD market aaj bhi sellers ka pressure experience kar sakta hai. Lekin, key levels aur technical indicators ko dhyan mein rakhte hue, buyers ke liye kuch opportunities bhi ho sakti hain. Aaj ka din important economic indicators aur speeches se filled hai, jo market movement ko influence kar sakte hain. Har decision ko careful analysis aur risk management ke sath lena zaroori hai.