aud/usd

AUD/USD 0.6654 par trade kar raha hai, jo din mein 0.10% zyada hai. Australian inflation 4.4% tak barh gayi hai. Is hafte inflation indicators umeed se zyada barh gaye hain, jo yeh dikha rahe hain ke inflation ab bhi sticky hai aur Reserve Bank of Australia ke 2% se 3% target group tak pohanchna mushkil rahega. Budh ke din, Melbourne ne June ke liye inflation expectations 4.4% batayi, jo May ke 4.1% se zyada thi aur jo 2.5 saal ka sabse kam tha.
Yeh reading CPI ke ek din baad aayi, jo May mein 4.0% tak barh gayi thi, April ke 3.6% se upar, aur market estimate 3.8% se bhi zyada thi. Yeh November 2023 ke baad sabse zyada inflation rate hai aur teen musalsal rapid headline rise ko indicate karti hai, jo RBA ke liye khaufnaak hai. RBA ko rate cut ko 2025 tak delay karne par majboor kiya ja sakta hai, aur inflation ke khilaaf jang jari rahegi. Inflation na sirf giri nahi balki jab barhti hai, to inflation ka khauf haqeeqat ban jata hai.

RBA ne yeh kaha hai ke rate hike table par hai aur do pehle rate meetings mein is issue par baat ki gayi thi. Aakhir mein, policymakers ne rate ko 4.35% par rakhne ka faisla kiya. Australia apne pehle quarter ka rate hike 31 July ko report karega, jo agle RBA meeting se sirf ek hafta pehle hai. Agar Q1 inflation barh rahi, to central bank ko August meeting mein rate hike karne par majboor kiya ja sakta hai. U.S. mein humein final GDP (teesra figure) ka late summary milta hai. Market estimate 1.4% hai second estimate ke mukable. U.S. economy ne pehle quarter mein sharp slow dekhi, aur 2023 ke fourth quarter mein 3.4% ka strong gain record kiya.

AUD/USD currency pair ne ek significant downward movement experience ki, aur crucial support level 0.66651 ko tod diya aur iske neeche settle ho gaya. Is breach ne ek almost recoilless complete bearish candle form ki, jo strong bearish momentum ko highlight karta hai. Aisi candle ka development sustained selling pressure ko clear indication hai jisme buyers ne minimal attempts kiye price ko wapas push karne ke liye, jo market mein existing bearish trend ko reinforce karta hai.

Current market dynamics yeh reveal karte hain ke 75% buyers sellers ke mukable overweight hain, jo AUD/USD pair par downward pressure ko aur intensify karta hai. Buyers aur sellers ke darmiyan yeh imbalance yeh suggest karta hai ke selling forces significantly stronger hain, jo price ko neeche push kar rahe hain minimal resistance ke sath. Jab market mein aisi dominant bearish sentiment hoti hai, to yeh aksar price ke continued declines ke potential ko signal karti hai. Significant retracement ya buying interest ke kami yeh indicate karti hai ke sellers firmly control mein hain, aur path of least resistance downward hai. Is context ko dekhte hue, downward movement ke liye agla target yeh ho sakta hai.

AUD/USD pair ne aham level 0.6650 par temporary support paya, lekin aakhir mein barhte hue USD ke samne haar gaya. USD ki yeh taqat market ki umeedon se aayi thi ke Federal Reserve (Fed) dusre central banks ke mukablay mein apni mojooda interest rate policy ko zyada arsey tak barqarar rakhega. Yeh ahtiyati rawaiya kamzor economic data se barhaya gaya tha.
Global flash PMI numbers June ke liye Eurozone, UK, Japan, aur Australia jaise bade economies se sab expectations se kam nikle. Anay wale US PMI mein bhi kamzor performance ka intezar hai, jahan economists manufacturing aur services sectors mein dono mein girawat ka izhaar kar rahe hain. Bank of Canada (BOC), European Central Bank (ECB), aur Swiss National Bank (SNB) jaise central banks ne haal hi mein interest rates mein cuts kiye hain, lekin Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ki taraf se aisa kuch expected nahi hai.
Australia mein inflation RBA ke 2% target se ooper hai, jis wajah se unhone is saal apni policy rate ko 4.35% par barqarar rakha hai.
Technically, AUD/USD ke downtrend mein kuch support 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ke aas paas nazar aa raha hai. Agar buying pressure wapas shuru ho jaye, to pair pehle resistance level 0.6713 par test kar sakta hai, uske baad ek potential breakout 0.6870 tak ho sakta hai, jo ke December 2023 mein dekha gaya tha. Mazeed bullish momentum se double top level 0.6898 jo pichle summer mein tha, ko bhi challenge kiya ja sakta hai.
Lekin agar revers hua to pair wapas immediate support 0.6643 tak gir sakta hai. Agar yeh level toot jaye, to recent support 0.6590 jo 50-day SMA ke saath milta hai, khul jayega. Aur mazeed girawat ka samna lower range boundary 0.6558 se limited ho sakta hai.
Growth ke outlook pe kuch warning signs hain, lekin isi waqt, inflation outlook ke bare mein bhi bohot ehtiyat ki zaroorat hai." Haal ke trend ko dekhte hue, humein lagta hai ke aaj ka market humein short transactions close karne ka behtareen mauqa de raha hai, kyunke is waqt sellers ki taqat buyers ki potential ability se zyada hai ke woh situation ko apni manzoor shakal mein badal saken.
HamaSystem, RSI Trend aur Magnetic_Levels_Color indicators ko apne kaam mein istemal karte hue, H1 time frame pe Ham indicator aur RSI trend ke mutabiq bhi bearish mode nazar aa raha hai - dono indicators blue aur green hain, jo sellers ki dominant strength ko dikhate hain. Is liye, hum sale transaction independently open kar rahe hain. Hum magnetic level indicator ka istemal karte hue position exit karenge. Is waqt, kaam karne ka ideal level 1.66081 hai. Uske baad hum chart dekh kar yeh faisla karenge ke market mein position maintain karein, ya phir already taken profit ko fix karein. Taake maximum possible profit extract kar sakein.

AUDUSD ki rozana chart par dekha jata hai ke yeh currency pair aik samandar halat mein hai, jahan khareedne walay resistance 0.67024 par atke hue hain aur farokht karne walay support 0.65779 par atke hue hain. Is halat mein nazar ata hai ke khareedne walon ko resistance ko toorna mushkil ho raha hai, jabke farokht karne walay bhi keemat ko neechay le jane mein kamyab nahi ho rahe hain.
Mukhtasir tafseeli siyasat nazar andaaz hai ke bullish mojoodi ka imkan hai, khas tor par agar mein EMA 50 aur EMA 100 ko upar ki taraf jaate hue dekhon. Isi tarah, keemat ke EMA 100 ke aas paas reject hone ki haqiqat yeh dikhata hai ke yeh ilaqa mazboot dynamite support ke tor par kaam karta hai. Yeh reject is baat ko dikhata hai ke har dafa jab keemat EMA 100 ke qareeb pohanchti hai, to khareedne walay foran daakhil ho jate hain aur keemat ko upar le jate hain. Yeh wakiya meri raay ko mazboot karta hai ke khareedne walon ka hukmarani mein hai aur keemat ke 0.67024 ke qareeb resistance ko check karne ki buland mumkinat hain.
Mera intezar mein bullish scenario hai, agar keemat ko 0.67024 ke resistance ko mazboot volume aur rozana band hone ke saath paar karne mein kamiyabi milti hai, to yeh pehli daleel ho sakti hai ke ek uptrend ka aghaz ho raha hai. Us waqt, aane wale hadaf umeedwar 0.67024 ke resistance ke as-pas ya ek nafsiyati maqami ilaqe ho sakta hai.
AUD/USD ke liye ek consolidation phase reveal karta hai within a rectangle pattern, jo ek neutral market sentiment indicate karta hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slightly below 50 par hai, jo lack of clear directional bias ko emphasize karta hai. Decisive moves is level ke upar ya neeche future trend ko signal kar sakti hain. Aage dekhte hue, AUD/USD ke liye immediate support 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke kareeb 0.6604 par hai, followed by the lower boundary of the rectangle pattern at 0.6585. Agar AUD/USD upward momentum gain karta hai, yeh potentially area around the upper border of the pattern at 0.6700 test kar sakta hai, shayad May high of 0.6714 tak bhi pahunch sakta hai. Jabke AUD/USD apne lows around 0.63618 se correct ho raha hai, kuch analysts believe karte hain ke decline abhi khatam nahi hui. Woh further downward movement predict karte hain pair ke liye jab tak price below 0.6699 rehti hai, with a target range of 0.6576-0.65002. Lekin, yeh analysts recommend nahi karte ke is point par AUD/USD sell kiya jaye. Woh anticipate karte hain increased buying activity jab price "blue box area" tak pohonchti hai, jo potentially new highs ya at least significant corrective bounce ki taraf rally lead kar sakti hai.
AUD/USD currency pair ki current price dynamics ko analyse karte hue, humne EMA tools aur economic indicators ka use kiya. M15 time frame par, trading signals straightforward hain aur entry points aur stop loss set hain. Hourly chart par, unemployment data aur Federal Reserve ke remarks ke basis par, pair ke movements ko assess karte hue, further decline towards 0.65593 support expect kiya ja raha hai.

Australian dollar ne Thursday ko zyada nuqsan nahi uthaya.

European session mein, AUD/USD 0.6649 par trade kar raha hai, jo din ka 0.15% neeche hai. Australian kharidariyon mein izafa expected hai, magar Australian consumers apne kharch ko kam kar rahe hain amid fears of a spending spree. Qarz ka bojh aur barhti hui inflation ne consumers ko parishan kar diya hai. April mein sirf 0.1% m/m izafa dekha gaya.

Faide extraordinary the kyun ke barishon ne Australia ki population mein izafa kiya. Wednesday ka May trade report thoda behtar tha, market expect kar raha tha 0.3% m/m. RBA minutes: Higher rates zaroorat ho sakti hai. Is mahine ke RBA meeting ke minutes se yeh pata chala ke commission ke rates ko hold karne ka faisla hone ka zyada chance tha.

RBA ne inflation rate 4.35% par paanchwain straight year ke liye rakha magar board ne inflation expectations ko raise kiya aur warning di ke agar current policy acchi nahi lagi toh rates ko cut karna chahiye. Wazeh faida yeh tha ke RBA ne apni high aur low stance ko zyada der tak maintain nahi kiya. Dusra quarter inflation report July 31 ko release hogi aur ek week baad RBA ke rate decision mein central hogi. Battered Australian economy rate cut se faida le sakti thi magar Reserve Bank of Australia ke saath inflation gir rahi hai, khaaskar industry inflation. CPI May mein 4.0% barh gaya, jo market expectations 3.8% ko beat kar gaya, April ke 3.6% se upar.

Four-hour chart par technical update:

AB pair ne downward wave jo 0.6991 se shuru hui thi, khatam kar di hai aur hum expect karte hain ke pair rise karega pehle top ko break karne ke liye aur price 0.0720 ko dekhegi. Isko dekhne ke liye, pehla resistance buy signal pair ke liye 0.6660 level par hoga.

AUD/USD ka price trend

Hum is waqt AUD/USD currency pair ke dynamic pricing behavior ko dissect kar rahe hain. Ek trend develop ho raha hai jo bearish outcome ko favor kar raha hai. Sellers har resistance level par activity ko intercept kar rahe hain aur buyer trends ko khatam kar rahe hain. Iska natija lagataar downward movements hain, jo ek strong bearish trend ko indicate karta hai. Agar yeh activity jaari rahi, toh hum significant bearish decline dekh sakte hain jo 0.6529 tak jaayega, jo AUD/USD ke liye ek zaroori support hai.

Dusri taraf, upward movement ke chances kam hain aur yeh 0.6722 resistance ke neeche hi rahega. Aaj, Jerome Powell ka speech hai aur JOLTS report bhi aane wali hai, jo significant moves ka potential rakhti hai, aur downward trend ka preference bhi hai. Main chhoti lots ka istemal kar ke AUD/USD ko trade kar raha hoon. Main upward breakout ki anticipation kar raha hoon aur long positions open kar raha hoon. Filhaal, hum 0.6651/0.6640 ke correction support zone ke aas paas trade kar rahe hain.


Agar price control level 0.6624 tak girti hai toh main wahan se buy karunga. Agar price is target level se neeche girti hai aur consolidate karti hai, toh main apne plan ko reconsider karunga for continued growth. Medium-term buyers ke liye, 0.6636 level par focus karna meaningful hai. Primary trend ko follow karne se achi results milte hain. Pullback ke dauraan opportunity miss karna costly ho sakta hai. AUD/USD ki local dynamics ko dekhte hue, buying promising lag rahi hai. Planned transaction ka size 0.6567 level par ho sakta hai, jo stop loss ka kaam karega. Yeh zaroori hai ke increased seller activity ke potential ko hamesha consider kiya jaye. Mera main goal yeh hai ke losses ko realize karne ke baad bhi funds ka bulk preserve karoon. Ek additional buy order 0.6613 probability zone separator ke aas paas hai. Is zone ka far edge overall variability ko manage karne mein madad karega. Agar counter-trend traders persist karte hain, toh buyers from higher wave structures likely intervene karenge jab price second benchmark ke kareeb pohonchti hai. Initially, main trading asset ke quotes ko nearest unloading border of T2 gradation area ke aas paas dekhne ka aim rakhta hoon, jo 0.6712 ke aas paas hai.

Yeh pair bechne ke dabao ka samna kar raha hai, jis mein early Asian session ke doran Thursday ko 0.6710 ke aas paas ghum raha hai. Is girawat ka sabab primarily US Dollar (USD) ke taza demand mein hai, jab ke US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data mazboot aane ke baad. Is haftay, market ka tawajjo US Consumer Price Index (CPI) June aur Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision par hogi, jin mein mazeed bari harkatoun ki umeed hai.
AUD/USD ke bunyadi asool:

Australian Dollar apni jaga qaim hai, jo Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ke raay ke bharose par hai. Digar central banks ke mukhalif jo ke rate cuts ki umeed ki ja rahi hain, RBA ne is saal koi rate cuts karne ka irada na karne ka ishara diya hai. RBA Governor Michele Bullock ki hal hilai guidance interest rate outlook par ne bata diya ke agar mahangai 1%-3% ki target range mein na wapas aayi to central bank tadaad mein izafa karne ke liye tayyar hai. Is ne RBA ke rate cuts ke expectations ko kam kar diya aur Australian Dollar ko support diya.

Isi tarah, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) bhi agle saal apne tight interest-rate stance ko dobara ghor karne par amada hai. Dono RBA aur RBNZ ke monetary policies AUD/USD pair ke liye ahem hain, kyun ke kisi bhi tabdeeli se market sentiment aur currency movements ko gehra asar pad sakta hai.

Chaaron ghante ke time frame technical outlook:

Tezi se girne ke baad, pair ne apni range ke neeche se guzar karne ka jokhim uthaya hai, jis se woh mazeed kamzor ho sakta hai. Agar 0.6578 ke June 7 ke low ko todi gayi to yeh bearish outlook ko tasdeeq kar dega, jis se pehla target 0.6533 ho sakta hai. Yeh target Fibonacci 0.618 ratio ke height of the range ko extrapolate karne ke technical analysis method se nikala gaya hai.

ab 0.6654 par trade kar raha hai, jo ke din ka 0.10% up hai. Australian inflation 4.4% par hai. Is hafte ke inflation indicators expected se zyada higher hain, jo indicate karte hain ke inflation abhi bhi sticky hai aur Reserve Bank of Australia ke inflation rates target group ke 2% se 3% tak pohanchna mushkil hoga. Wednesday ko Melbourne ne inflation expectations ko June mein 4.4% raise kiya, jo May ke 4.1% gain se zyada hai jo 2.5 saal ka low tha.
Yeh reading ek din baad aayi jab CPI May mein 4.0% tak accelerate hui, jo April ke 3.6% se upar thi aur market estimate 3.8% se bhi zyada thi. Yeh November 2023 se highest rate of inflation hai aur yeh tisra consecutive rapid headline rise mark karta hai, jo RBA ke liye ek worrying move hai. RBA ko shayad rate cut ko 2025 tak delay karna padega, aur war on inflation khatam ho jayegi. Inflation na sirf girne mein fail hui, balki jab yeh barhti hai to inflation ka dar haqeeqat ban jata hai.

RBA ne insist kiya hai ke rate hike table par hai aur is issue par do pehle rate meetings mein discuss bhi kiya gaya. Aakhir mein, policymakers ne rate ko 4.35% par rakha. Australia apni first-quarter rate hike 31 July ko report karega, jo ke next RBA meeting se ek hafta pehle hai. Agar Q1 inflation continue karti hai, to yeh central bank se August meeting mein rate hike ka sabab ban sakta hai. U.S. mein, hum final GDP ka summary (third figure) late obtain karte hain. Market estimate 1.4% hai compared to second estimate. U.S. economy ne first quarter mein sharply slow down kiya aur fourth quarter of 2023 mein robust 3.4% gain post kiya.

AUD/USD currency pair ne ek significant downward movement experience ki, crucial support level 0.66651 ko break aur settle karte hue. Is breach ne ek almost recoilless complete bearish candle ki formation ki, jo strong bearish momentum ko highlight karta hai. Aisi candle ka development sustained selling pressure ko indicate karta hai jahan buyers ki taraf se minimal attempts hue price ko wapas push karne ke liye, jo market mein existing bearish trend ko reinforce karta hai.

Current market dynamics reveal karte hain ke 75% buyers sellers ke comparison mein overweight hain, jo AUD/USD pair par downward pressure ko further intensify karta hai. Yeh imbalance between buyers aur sellers suggest karta hai ke selling forces significantly stronger hain, jo price ko lower push kar rahe hain minimal resistance ke sath. Jab market aisi dominant bearish sentiment exhibit karta hai, to yeh aksar price mein continued declines ka potential signal karta hai. Lack of significant retracement ya buying interest indicate karta hai ke sellers firmly in control hain, aur path of least resistance downward hi rehta hai. Is context ko dekhte hue, next target for downward movement ki taraf hoga.

AUD/USD Price Volatility
Hamara guftagu AUD/USD currency pair ki price action ke real-time evaluation ke ird gird ghoom rahi hai. Aaj mein AUDUSD currency pair bechne ka irada rakhta hoon. Short positions ke liye mojooda halat mo'alla hain. Is waqt price 0.66583 hai, jo bechne ke liye behtareen point hai, ho sakta hai ke thoda aur bhi upar jaye. Jab tak bearish pressure barqarar rahe aur bulls koi aham muqawamat na dikhayein, short karna maqool hai. Mera aaj ka target 0.66289 ke lower support level ka hai. Main stop loss 0.66589 se thoda upar set karunga. Agar price 0.66289 se niche girti hai aur volatility barhti hai, to main apni short position extend kar sakta hoon. Aaj ke charts dekhne ke baad, mujhe 0.66401 aur 0.66069 ke support levels ne mutwajjah kiya. Main dekhoonga ke price 0.65928 ke qareeb kis tarah approach karti hai aur agar mujhe is level ke qareeb bullish signals milte hain to main market mein enter kar sakta hoon. Halanke price niche jaari reh sakti hai, lekin main recovery ka umeed rakhta hoon aur bullish movement ki tasdeeq ko dekhoonga
AUDUSD pair aik turning point par hai. Aham resistance level 0.6667 hai aur daily candle close is level ke mo'atabar ho ga trading decisions ko guide karne ke liye. Agar daily close 0.6667 se niche nahi hoti, to main umeed karta hoon ke 0.6657 ke support level par wapas aaegi, jo ke 0.6659 - 0.6667 resistance zone ko barqarar rakhne ko dikhata hai, aur shayad 0.6590 tak gir jaye. Is waqt, AUD/USD pair 0.6656 par trade ho raha hai. Board of Governors ne mo'atabar high inflation risks aur Australian economy ke slowdown ke imkanat ka izhar kiya. RBA ne tasdeeq ki hai ke agar inflation barhta hai to woh monetary policy ko tight karne dobara shuru karenge. Prices ne last week ke opening mark ko test kiya aur support paya, jo yeh darshata hai ke quotes 0.6717 tak barh sakti hain