𝐄𝐔𝐑/𝐉𝐏𝐘

EUR/JPY ka Haal

EUR/JPY jor ne ek temporary barhawa dekha, jo nau hafton ki range ke upar ki taraf gaya, lekin traders ne aage ka rukh tay karne ke liye wazeh catalyst ka intezar karte hue yeh barhawa ruk gaya. Yeh pair filhal chhoti muddat ke liye sideways trend mein consolidate hota nazar aa raha hai. Technical analysis ke mutabiq "trend aapka dost hai," yeh sideways pattern yeh darshata hai ke consolidation ka amal jaari rehne ki umeed hai. Agar aisa hota hai, to EUR/JPY ka agla qadam 154 range ke low ki taraf wapas aane ka ho sakta hai. Lekin ab tak price ne reversal ka koi asar nahi dikhaya, is liye yeh kehna abhi jaldi hai ke pair gir jayega. 161.00 ke neeche girna is downtrend ke liye mazeed bearish confirmation dene ke liye zaroori hoga. EUR/JPY ka agla downside target lagbhag 158.32 ke aas-paas hai, jo October 1 aur September 30 ka low darshata hai. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator price se bearish divergence dikha raha hai. Halankeh MACD filhal gir raha hai, price oscillate kar raha hai, jo darshata hai ke kamzor underlying momentum abhi ki price action ko support kar raha hai aur thoda sa neeche ki taraf jhuk raha hai.


EUR/JPY pichle kuch mahino se 155.15-164.00 ke range mein trade kar raha hai, jahan 200-day simple moving average (SMA) se 164.40 ke aas-paas mazboot resistance aa raha hai. Technical tor par, Relative Strength Index (RSI) thoda neutral threshold 50 se upar hai, lekin MACD apna positive momentum barqarar rakhne mein nakam raha hai, jo apne trigger aur zero lines ke upar horizontally move kar raha hai. Agar market sideways channel ke upper boundary aur 200-day EMA ko todti hai, to yeh 50.0% Fibonacci retracement tak 164.80 ke aas-paas reh sakta hai, jo downward wave 175.37 se 154.40 tak hai. Usse upar, 61.8% Fibonacci level 167.20 uptrend ko rok sakta hai.

Aaj ka EUR/JPY dynamics euro ki steady resilience aur yen ki weakness ka aik tug-of-war ko reflect karte hain. Recent trading sessions mein euro apni strength ko continue kar raha hai, jiska sabab European Central Bank (ECB) ka relatively stable monetary stance hai, khaaskar jab inflation pressures persist kar rahe hain. Dusri taraf, yen mein weakness ka aik sabab Bank of Japan (BOJ) ki accommodative policies hain jo economic growth ko stimulate karne ke liye rakhi gayi hain. Policy mein kisi bhi tabdeeli ka koi sign nahi hai, aur risk-on environment mein yen kam attractive ho gaya hai, jo ke EUR/JPY pair ko upward momentum ki taraf le ja raha hai.Euro ki recent strength European economy par optimistic outlook ke wajah se hai, jabke yen Japan ke low-interest-rate environment ki wajah se suffer kar raha hai. Yeh do opposing forces aaj ke EUR/JPY trends ko set karte hain, jahan yen ka safe-haven appeal tabhi samne aa sakta hai agar global markets mein heightened risk aversion ho. Yeh risk factor broader asset movements, khaaskar equities aur U.S. Treasury yields ke sath closely correlated hai. Agar U.S. bond yields mein kisi unexpected spike ka dekha jaye, toh yen demand safe haven ke tor par barh sakti hai jo ke euro ki upward push ko stall kar sakti hai.

Technical standpoint se, EUR/JPY abhi apni trading range ke upper boundary ke kareeb hai. Key resistance 165.00 level par hai, jabke support 161.83 ke kareeb positioned hai. Agar aaj ka session EUR/JPY ko 165.00 resistance par break karte dekhta hai, toh next target 167.38 ke aas paas ho sakta hai jo ke Fibonacci retracement ke sath aligned hai. Downside par, agar yeh 161.83 se neeche girta hai toh 155.10 ka support level khul sakta hai, jo ke potential shift in momentum ko indicate karta hai.Volume analysis se moderate activity ka pata lagta hai aur resistance ke kareeb prices ke sath bullish interest mein waning dikhai de rahi hai. Technical indicators jaise ke MACD bearish divergence ka ishara de rahe hain jo ke bullish momentum mein kami ka indication hai. Saath hi, RSI overbought territory ke kareeb hai, isliye traders ko short term mein reversal ya consolidation ka caution lena chahiye.Mixed signals ko dekhte hue, EUR/JPY traders ko cross-asset movements aur technical levels ko closely monitor karna chahiye takay market mein possible direction shifts ka insight mil sake.

Abhi agar trading chart par H1 ya H4 timeframe ko dekha jaye, toh yeh bohat clear hai ke price Bollinger Bands indicator ke middle aur upper bands ke darmiyan trade ho rahi hai. Yeh Bollinger Bands indicators, jo 23 aur 25 period par hain aur exponential close method par apply kiye gaye hain, signal de rahe hain ke EUR/JPY currency pair abhi bullish trend condition mein hai. Iss liye, buy option ko aaj subha ki trading mein mukhya option ke tor par consider kiya ja sakta hai. indicator ke ilawa, moving average indicators bhi bullish trend ka signal de rahe hain. Moving average indicator period 7 aur period 16, dono exponential close method par apply kiye gaye hain, aur yeh bhi EUR/JPY pair par bullish trend ka ishara de rahe hain. Main khud yeh baat maan raha hoon ke kal subha market khulte hi price pehle se bane hue resistance area ko test kar sakta hai jo ke 167.00 - 166.90 par hai, aur is zone mein buy order dena ek acha moka ho sakta hai. indicator period 14 aur MACD indicator period 12.26.9 bhi moving averages aur Bollinger Bands ki tarah bullish signal dete hain. RSI level 50 ke kareeb hai jo ke bullish signal ko confirm karta hai, khaaskar H1 aur H4 timeframes par. Bas itna hai ke MACD indicator par ek bearish divergence ka signal bhi dekhne ko mil sakta hai agar histogram fast moving average ke signal ko breach karne mein kamiyab na ho, jisse reversal pattern banne ka chance ho sakta hai.Technically, EUR/JPY pair abhi tak bullish market formation mein dominate kar raha hai, jahan kal Wednesday ko Asian trading session mein EUR/JPY pair ne new resistance area ko 166.00 - 165.90 par test kiya. Lekin European session mein yeh pair slightly bearish hua aur sirf new support area 165.50 - 165.40 tak pohanch saka. Uske baad, American trading session mein pair phir se upward trend mein gaya aur market close tak bullish raha. Aaj subha ke Asian session ke liye meri prediction hai ke agar resistance area 166.50 - 166.40 par price ko cross karna mushkil hota hai, toh price wapas bearish ho sakta hai aur 166.00 - 165.90 par RBS (resistance becomes support) area ko target kar sakta hai, aur is situation mein buy limit option direct buy order ke mukable mein kam risk wala hoga.

EUR/JPY

JPY pair ko filhal selling pressure ka samna hai aur price mein girawat nazar aa rahi hai. Yeh girawat us waqt hui jab Japanese Yen mein mazid mazbooti dekhi gayi, jo kai factors ki wajah se hui. Pehla factor, Bank of Japan ke board member Asahi Noguchi ke comments hain, jo yeh suggest karte hain ke central bank ke paas interest rates barhane ki gunjaish abhi bhi hai, magar yeh ehtiyaat se kiya jayega. Is wajah se Japanese Yen ko support mili. Doosra, Middle East mein barhte hue geopolitics tensions ne Yen ki safe-haven demand ko barhawa diya. Teesra factor yeh hai ke Euro mein kamzori dekhne ko mili, kyunke European Central Bank ke October mein interest rates dobara cut karne ki umeed hai, jabke inflation ke pressures mein kami aur economy ki slow growth bhi is ke peeche hai. In tamam challenges ke bawajood, EUR/JPY pair ko ab tak support mila hua hai, Bank of Japan ke future mein interest rate hikes ke hawalay se uncertainty ki wajah se. Japan ke naye Prime Minister aur Economic Revitalization Minister ne deflation ko khatam karne ke ahmiyat ko ujaagar kiya hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke qareebi mustaqbil mein interest rates mein zyada izafa nahi hoga. Yeh cheez Japanese Yen ki taqat ko mehdood kar sakti hai, aur EUR/JPY pair ke liye support ban sakti hai.
**Technical Analysis**
Agar hum technical perspective se dekhen, daily chart par ek "death cross" ka formation nazar aaya hai, jahan 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) 200-day SMA se neeche cross kar gaya hai. Yeh EUR/JPY ke liye bearish bias ko darshata hai. Iske ilawa, Relative Strength Index (RSI) 30 ke level ke qareeb hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke pair ab oversold conditions mein hai. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) bhi apni trigger aur zero line ke neeche hai, jo ke downward trend ko support karta hai.
Short term mein, EUR/JPY pair 155.15 ke support level ko test kar sakta hai aur thoda pullback aasakta hai. Agar yeh is level ke upar rehne mein kaamiyab hota hai, to yeh 158.00 ke short-term downtrend line tak wapas aane ki koshish kar sakta hai, aur phir 159.30-160.05 ke limit zone tak bhi pohanch sakta hai. Is zone mein 23.6% Fibonacci retracement bhi shamil hai jo downtrend ke 175.37 se 154.40 tak ka range cover karta hai