Eur/usd

EUR/USD mein halki giravat dekhi gayi. Dollar ki maang mein uthaar nay EUR/USD par bojh dala. Macro outlook ki asar ke zariye, euro ki upar ki taraf seemit nazar aati hai. EUR/USD abhi 1.0935 ke aas paas trade ho rahi hai, jismein din bhar ki giravat 0.08% hai. German economy ne saal ke doosre hissay se halki sarkashi dikhayi hai. Statistics Office ne pichle Jumma ko announce kiya ke Germany ka gross domestic product (GDP) teesre quarter mein 0.1% quarterly kam hua, jabke saalana GDP 0.4% kam hua, pehle se girawat thi jo 0.3% thi. European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos ne Jumma ko kaha ke European economic outlook ke risks downside par jhuke hue hain. Guindos ne yeh bhi kaha ke agle mahinon mein inflation phir se barh sakti hai, lekin mojooda interest rates ko lamba waqt tak qaim rakhna inflation ko control kar sakta hai. Europe ki sab se badi economy Germany mein growth ki downside risks euro (EUR) par bechnay ke dabao daal sakti hain aur EUR/USD ke liye nakaratmak sabit ho sakti hain. Alag taur par, Germany ke Constitutional Court ne pichle hafte faisla kiya ke coronavirus pandemic ke doran emergency funds ke liye munsalik na ki gayi qarz ko halaat ke mutabiq teesri plans mein reallocate karna ghair qanooni hai. CNBC ke mutabiq, isne government budget mein 60 billion euro ki kami paida ki hai, jo ke khaas kar climate policy ko nuqsaan pohanchayegi.

United States mein, S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index November mein 50.7 par bani rahi. Usi waqt, manufacturing purchasing managers index 50.0 se 49.4 par gira, jo ke 49.8 ke muntazir hone se kam tha. Services purchasing managers index thora sa 50.6 se 50.8 par barh gaya, jo ke 50.4 ke muntazir hone se zyada tha. Market participants Wednesday ko euro zone ki November consumer confidence index par tawajjuh denge. Thursday ko German retail sales, consumer price index (CPI), aur euro zone Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) jaari kiye jayenge. United States housing data, consumer confidence index, gross domestic product aur ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index jaari karega. Traders EUR/USD trading opportunities ko yahan par dhundenge. Technical side par, upar ki taraf exchange rate ka pehla resistance 1.0947 par hai, mazeed resistance 1.0952 par aur muqadma resistance 1.0975 par hai; neechay ki taraf exchange rate ka pehla support 1.0883 par hai, aur mazeed support 1.0860 aur zyada crucial support 1.0837 par hai.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:

Jab maine profitable timetable par dekha toh mujhe dekha ki koi bhi high-impact news item nahi tha. Sirf medium-impact news tha. Haan, ye medium order mein hai, lekin euro aur US dollar currencies par bada asar ho sakta hai. Isliye alert rehna zaroori hai. Baad mein, lagbhag 21:00 WIB par, ECB ke chairman ka ek speech hoga. Uss mein sakht maamle pe charcha hogi, jaise ki interest rates ka badhna ya ghatna. 24 November 2023 ko, ECB ke ek pratinidhi ne kaha tha ki bhavishya mein abhi bhi prabhav a sakta hai. Lekin jaise abhi ke interest rates hain, prabhav abhi bhi sambhala ja sakta hai. Iska matlab hai ki interest rate kuch mahino ke liye sthir reh sakta hai aur badal nahi sakta. Large ke bhashan ke baad, lagbhag 22:00 WIB par, America ghar ki deal data jaari karega. Ye khabar gharo ki bikri ko ginegi. Lekin, yadi aap forecast dekhe toh, US dollar kamzor ho sakta hai. Iss Asian session mein, American dollar abhi tak koi pratirodh nahi hai. Ye kuch din pehle flash manufacturing aur flash PMI data jaari hone ke baad ho raha hai.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

Lagta hai ki EUR-USD ki maang mein kharidar ka niyantran raha hai; pichhle hafte mein dekha gaya ki kharidaron ne daam ko oopar utha saka. Saabit hua ki pichhle hafte maang 1.0966 tak badh sakti thi; ab daam abhi 1.0943 par sudhar raha hai; agar kharidar ka prabhav abhi tak khatam nahi hua hai, to daam oopar badhne ka mauka hai, jo maang ko uchhaalne dega. Lekin agar vyapari kam shakti se kaam karte hain, to maang nichle trend ki taraf bhi ja sakti hai. Pichhle hafte, EUR-USD maang ki sthiti uchhaal ki taraf jane ki taraf thi.

Eurusd sab ke liye acha din! currency pear eurusd ke baray mein, mein mandarja zail sorat e haal ka mushahida karta hon : m15 chart par lakhiry rujat channel oopar ki taraf dhalwan hai, jo is baat ki nishandahi karta hai ke khredar market mein mazboot hain. kharidaron ki sargarmi 1. 09397 par channel ki nichli baondri se kharidari par ghhor karne ka aik behtareen mauqa paish karti hai. mein tawaqqa karta hon ke market 1. 09712 ki satah tak pahonch jaye gi, jis ke baad islaah ki pairwi karni chahiye. islaah nichli had ki taraf ho gi, jahan se hamein dobarah kharidne par ghhor karna chahiye. taham, agar yeh neechay ki taraf toot jata hai, to hum mazeed girtay rehtay hain aur is soorat mein khareedna mansookh ho jata hai. is terhan market jab oopar nazar aati hai to channels ke sath sath barhti hai. 1. 09712 par channel ki oopri baondri se, farokht ke mawaqay honay chahiye, aur hum market mein daakhil ho satke hain. mere liye, yeh zaroori hai ke pal back se nichli baondri ke jitna qareeb ho sakay daakhil hon .





Aala time frame h1 ka tajzia karte hue, mein ne mushahida kya ke lakhiri rujat channel oopar ki taraf jata hai. mere liye, yeh m15 time frame se ziyada ahem hai. is ka matlab hai ke bail mazboot hain. m15 channel se signal kharidne ki taraf ishara karta hai, jo meri kharidne ki khwahish ko taqwiyat deta hai. mujhe sirf qeemat ke sahih jagah tak pounchanay ka intzaar karna hoga aur wahan se kharidari ka mauqa talaash karna hoga. mojooda sorat e haal mein jahan mein kharidari ke mawaqay talaash karta hon woh 1. 08828 par channel ki nichli had hai. wahan se, mein 1. 09667 tak dobarah kharidne ki koshish karta hon. hadaf ko baad mein honay wali numoo ke sath haasil kar liya gaya hai, jo ke mazboot oopar ki harkat ka ishara hai. 1. 09667 se tasheeh karne ka bohat acha mauqa hai, kyunkay aik taizi ki harkat ka intikhab kya gaya hai. phir bail apni harkat bahaal karne ki koshish karen ge. agar 1. 08828 ki entry level neechay ki taraf guzar jati hai to yeh mandi ki dilchaspi ki alamat hai. is soorat mein, market ki sorat e haal ko kharidne aur dobarah jhanchne ke liye tijarti mansoobah par nazar sani karne ke qabil ho sakta hai .

EUR/USD currency pair ki qeemat ki harkat ka tajzia karne aaye hain. Aik arz e amm hai ke nichayi harkat ke liye ibtedai support 1.0890 par hai, aur bara bearish movement ke liye ahem signal 1.0830 par hai. Lekin jald neechayi ki mumkinat par shak hai, jo is option par guman dalta hai. Agar Euro apni upward momentum ko barqarar rakhne mein nakam rehta hai, to ek lateral harkat ke imkanat zahir hote hain, jahan 1.0970 tak upper had hai aur double aur triple bottoms se mark ki gayi undetermined lower boundary hai. Yeh haqeeqat hai jo koshishon ko nakaarne ke bawajood qawi hai.





Hourly chart par aik Head and Shoulder pattern mumkin hai, jo neechayi ke liye potential support dikhata hai, jo aane wali neechayi ki umeedon ko barhata hai. 4-hour chart par aik bearish Wolfe wave maujood hai, jo 5th wave mein neechayi ki rah ki mumkinat dikhata hai. Pair shuru mein zahir hai ke 1.0877 par ascending trend tak gir sakta hai. Price trend ki kamyaabi se neechay giravat ke 5th Wolfe wave ko shuru kar sakta hai, jo keemat ko 1.0626 tak girne ke liye nishana banata hai. Pair is level se bhi neechay jaari reh sakta hai. November 26, 2023 ke mutabiq, instrument ki keemat 1.09460 par mazboot darmiyani aikar medium-term resistance ko challenge kar rahi hai, jo breakthrough hone par bullish trend ka jari rakh sakta hai. Ya to shutdown jald hi bearish manzarnama ko laa sakta hai, jo sellers ki liquidity se bhara hua hai. Ahtiyaat se waqeeyat ka tajziya 50% har nateeje ke liye kehta hai. Haan ke trend bullish hai, lekin thora sa mazboot bearish correction, 50% tak akhri leg ka, ho sakta hai.

Bilkul! Yahan EUR/USD currency pair ke price move ka summary Roman Urdu mein:

"EUR/USD Price Move Summary

EUR/USD currency pair ke keemat mein izharat ka tajziya karte hue tajawuz ke maamlay par tanqeed ki jaa rahi hai. EUR/USD haal hi mein 1.0930 aur 1.0987 ke darmiyan fluctuate kar raha hai, jahan ek chhota sa giravat 1.0850 tak hua tha lekin jald hee range ke hadood mein laut gaya. Current quotes upper line ke oopar hain, jo ke ek prevailing buying trend ko darust kar rahi hain. Lekin agar 1.0964 par downturn ho, toh 1.0930 ki dobara testing double top ka natija ho sakta hai, jo ke aik potential reversal aur short position ke liye mauqa banata hai. Pehla target 1.0450-30 hai, jahan long-term breach hone ki mumkinat hai 1.0350 aur 1.0280 tak. 1.0970 ko update karna mashwara hai, phir ek downtrend jo ke 1.0830 tak pohanch sakta hai.



Daily chart par, EUR/USD currency pair ke medium-term direction mein kai options samne hain. Aik ahem point hai jab robust resistance zone ko test kiya jaa raha hai. Monday ke movements ya toh price mein izafa lay sakte hain ya phir ek gehri correction ho sakti hai, jo ke bullish momentum ko khatre mein daal sakti hai. Abhi tak untested diagonal line complexity ko situation mein add karti hai. Nearest level jo ke Fibonacci grid par 1.0983 par marked hai, spread ko exclude karte hue, uska breakthrough November ke closing aur potential dollar ki kamzori se mutasir ho sakta hai. December aik significant rally ke liye stage set kar sakta hai. Monday ke liye US economic calendar mein 16:00 par building permits issued aur 18:00 par new housing sales statistics shamil hain, jabke Europe mein comparable data ki kami hai, jo actual market movement ko reveal karne wale information bias ka hissa ban sakta hai. Monday ke economic calendar par minimal European statistics hain, jab tak Wednesday ko GDP figures released honge. Yeh release price ko upward pull kar sakti hai."

Euro ne Monday ke trading session ko aaghaaz kiya ek initial upside gap ke saath, lekin jaldi hi yeh move counteracted ho gaya ek subsequent descent ke saath. Lekin, phir ek rally shuru hui, phir se resistance levels ko challenge karte hue. Mazboot resistance 1.0960 se lekar pivotal 1.10 level tak phaila hua hai. Yani ke market abhi bhi resistant phase mein hai, jahan bar-bar oscillations ki jagah ban rahi hai. Halat mein thori overextension nazar aati hai, jo ke market noise ko barha rahi hai. Lekin yeh mahaul bhi traders ko attract kar raha hai jo potential downturns se faida uthana chahte hain.

Maujooda market dynamics ke neeche, 1.0850 level aik ahem support threshold saamne aata hai. Uski historical significance uss attention ko highlight karti hai jo pehle se uss par di gayi hai. Is juncture ko effectively navigate karna, continuous oscillations ka perspective adopt karna hai, ongoing market flux ke darmiyan broader directional trends ko samajhne ke liye.

Haal hi mein upward surge ko aik substantial impediment mila hai, jo ek mazboot rukawat ki wajah hai.

Aik noteworthy development yeh hai ke 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke impending intersection 200-Day EMA se ooper, jo "golden cross" ki sambhavna laa raha hai. Jabke yeh waqia often long-term standpoint se buying signal ke taur par interpret hota hai, lekin yeh generally tab hota hai jab market mein pehle se significant upswing ho chuka hota hai.

A decisive breach 1.10 level ke ooper market ko buland kar sakta hai, potentially historically significant 1.1250 handle tak. Ulta, 1.0850 level ke neeche girawat 1.0750 region ki taraf rasta khole sakta hai, jahan both 50-Day EMA aur 200-Day EMA indicators converge hote hain. Traders ko caution aur flexibility ka istemal karna chahiye, Euro ke resistance aur support levels ke saath sustained trajectory ke liye jujhte hue evolving dynamics ko consider karte hue.

EUR/USD Keemaat Ki Tehqeeq:

Hum ab EUR/USD currency pair ki keemaat ke rukh ka jayeza le rahe hain. Euro/dollar ki rozana ki halat ab aik maazi hisse ko azma rahi hai, jo 1.09460 ke darmiyan hai. Is tanzeemi mushtabahi mein mukhtalif waqiat hone ki ihtimal qareeb 50% hai. Bechaari baazaar ki dakhli dhaar, jahan pe risky assets ki farokht hoti hai, woh aik ulte muqbalay ka na honay se mayoos hain. Euro dollar ke aitbaar se behtar betha hai, jaisa ke daily chart mein upward trend aur aik mumkin double-top formation ke sath quote rebound ko annual minimum tak pahuncha sakta hai. Agar na hua, tau hali mein upward trend qaim rahega. Technical analysis ne khareed ki signals zahir ki hain, jahan Alligator lines aur MACD oscillator ne mustahkam momeetam dikhaya hai. Aik price ki bharhaw ka imkan hai ya toh false breakout ya puri terhan bullish candle ke paar 1.1010 pe. Keemat mid-way pohanchti hai, aur khula long position munafa bakhsh ban jata hai.

Hamare market ke jaanch se hum ne dekha hai ke bullish trend mein taiz rehtay hain. Euro/US Dollar pair ki 4 ghantay ki chart ki tajziye mein aaj ka session 1.0933 par chala gaya, Ichimoku cloud ke ooper mojood hokar aagay ki taraf ishara karta hai. Aik lambi position mumkin hai jab tak candle pehle resistance level se paar hojaye. Khaas tor par, stochastic indicator tezi se chal raha hai, aur intraday growth guideline classic Pivot reversal levels ke saath mutabiq hai. Hum umeed karte hain ke pivot level ki testing ke baad mazeed izafa hoga, aur 1.0986 resistance level ke ooper breakthrough naye upward wave ko start kar sakta hai jis ki taraf 1.1032 hai. Short sellers ke market wapas anay ki soorat mein, 1.0873 support level ahem hota hai.

EUR/USD Ke Patterns aur Harkatein

Ham momentan EUR/USD currency pair ki qeemat ki rawish aur tahlil par baat cheet kar rahe hain. Daily time frame par aik indicator neecha ki taraf isharah kar raha hai, lekin market ke jawab ko pehle sehana mushkil hai. Mein ne economic calendar ki taraf ishara kia hai taake aane wale primary aur cross-pair tabdeelion ka andaza lagaya ja sake, jisme US Federal Reserve GDP report ki aane wale ahem khabar bhi shaamil hai. Walaaghair ke pehle isharaat neeche ki taraf hain, pehli data mein mukhtalif raaste ki sambhavnaat ko pesh karti hai. Aik manzar yeh hai ke Fibonacci grid ke zariye Fibonacci levels ki pehchaan ki ja sakti hai, jabke doosra Fibonacci extension ke ird gird ghati hui qeemat ko aik global nazar se barha sakti hai. Aik mazeed durust raaste ke liye, GDP khabron mein chalna ahem hai taake yeh maloom ho sake ke yeh izafat final hai ya ek durusti darusti ki taraf ishara karta hai.

H1 chart par, aik support ki tod mehsoos ho rahi hai, aur aaj ka kamzor 1.0925 par hai, lekin is level ke neeche thehrav ke baghair. Magar, yeh alag harkat aik numaya tutnay ko darust nahi karti, aur bechare ko is mark par itminan ke liye ye sabit karna hoga. Moujooda rafter medium-term maqasid ke hawale se ek buland rawaj ko pasand karti hai. Humayn maheena kham ho raha hai, is liye humein maheenay ke akhiri dino ko bhi mad-e-nazar rakhna chahiye. H4 chart par neeche ke rawaj ko ulta karne ke liye 1.0824 support level ke neeche thehrav ki zarurat hai.

Umooman, bechare H1 time frame ke liye itminan hasil kar sakte hain agar 1.0885 ke support ko todte hain. Muhim ye hai ke daswe figure ko oopar nahi todna, balki 9th-10th figure ki taraf aik gehra sudhar karna, jo baraah-e-raast neeche rawaj ko dobara shuru hone ki taraf ishara karta hai. Bearish karwan ke liye ahem amal ye hai ke H1 support 1.0885 ko paar karen aur apne muqam ko mustawar banayen, jo ek neeche ki taraf rawaj banane ka rasta dikhaye.

Keemat naye unchayi ke qareeb hai, sirf chand pips door hai is level ko choone se. Hum abhi bhi ek taqatwar urooj rawaj ko dekhte hain jo jari hai. Is unchai ko 1.0962 par darust kiya gaya hai, aur aik halkay pullback ke baad lagta hai ke yeh pair apni unchi raaste ko jari rakhega.
Is urooj rawaj ko ulta karne aur neeche rawaj shuru karne ke liye, humein 1.0924 ke support level ke neeche aik breakthrough dekhna hoga. Agar yeh hota hai, to yeh bechne ka acha mauqa ho sakta hai.
Abhi ke liye, yeh urooj rawaj bechne walay ko yeh izazat de sakti hai ke chand lamhon ke liye control mein aaye takmeel kar sakein. Lekin, European session ke doran, humein urooj rawaj ka dobara aana dekhne ko mil sakta hai, jo mukhtalif unchi se guzar sakta hai, jaise ke haali unchi darja 1.0965 par hai. Yahan se, agla maqsaad 1.10 level ko torne ka hai. Sirf 1.1010-1.1020 level tak pohanchne ke baad, humein medium-term trend ko neeche ulta karne ka tawun karna chahiye. Haan ke chand lamhe ke liye pullbacks ho sakte hain, lekin urooj rawaj taqatwar hai.

Main EUR/USD pair par aik update dena chahta hoon, haan ke mairay pichlay post ke baad kuch zyada tabdeeli nahi hui hai. Halaat kal ke jaise hain, is pair ki rehnuma qeemat abhi bhi apni buland unchi par hai lekin tasalsul ke sath trade kar rahi hai, jaise meri haali screenshot mein dikhaya gaya hai.

Kal girawat ka izhar karne ki koshish nakam rahi, aur Asian session ke doran, EUR/USD ki keemat taraf rehti hui, jo ke 1.0965 par darust ki gayi hai, yeh sideways range ke upper limit ke qareeb pohanchi. Lekin, char ghante ke chart par 'Zigzag' indicator ab bhi bechne ki zaroorat ko darust karta hai, aur Stochastic indicator apne daire ke ooper hai, jo ke ishara karta hai ke euro overbought halat mein hai.

Is liye, aaj, sab se zyada mumkin manazirat yeh hai ke EUR/USD ki taraf girawat hogi, jo ke 1.0880 ke lower limit ki taraf jaaye gi, uske baad upar bounce hoga aur naye urooj ke liye tayyar hoga. Lekin is waqt mere liye mushkil hai ke main is waqt keh sakoon ke keemat sideways channel se bahar kis rukh mein niklegi. Ideal taur par, kismat Euro currency ki taraf seemit hai aur medium-term trend ko jari rakhegi. Lekin, haali mein ECB President Christine Lagarde ki taqreerat ne investors ko monetary policy tight karne ki mazeed isharon se mehroom kar diya hai, jo ke dollar mein taqat ka dobara izhaar kar sakta hai.

EURUSD currency pair par bullish dabaav zaahir hai. Dono, bulls aur bears, chahte hain ke qeemat 1.0950 ke upar chali jaaye. Jab tak currency pair ki qeemat 1.0910 ke upar rahegi, mazeed bulls ko isay khareed
e mein dilchaspi hogi. Chaar ghanton ke time frame mein, aik saath chalne wala channel nazr aata hai. Jab
keemat is channel ke saath chalti hai, yeh mazboot hoti hai. EURUSD ki mustaqbil ki taraf is channel se bahar jaane ka rukh se, iski mustaqbil mein wazeh ishaarat hogi. Qeemat ne support level 1.0900 ke aas-paas se bounce shuru kar diya hai, is ka matlab hai ke bulls abhi bhi is mojooda supported area par haar nahi maanne ko tayyar hain.

H4 chart par, qeemat ko mutalik hai ke yeh mumkin hai ke woh swing highs 1.0930 ki taraf jaaye. Swing highs par rukawat ke natije mein, qeemat ne haal hi mein zyada buland hone mein nakam reh gaya hai. Jabke EURUSD rozana ek downtrend mein hai, bullish swing downtrend ka aik retracement hai.

Daily chart ki technical analysis ke mutabiq, EURUSD 1.0890 tak bounce kar sakta hai. Jab yeh joda 1.0850 ke qareeb aayega, toh yeh rozana chart par dominant descending trend line se milti julti hai. Jab yeh bullish retracement movement yahaan rukay gi, toh downtrend ko yahaan se neeche jaari rakhna chahiye. Iske alawa, 1.0980 level daily chart par mojood swing high ke saath milta julta hai jo 1.0840 ke level se pehle tha. Is wajah se, is ilaake ke aas-paas kai rukawaton ki nishandahi hoti hai, jo iske taqat ko mazeed barha deti hai.

EURUSD Technical Overview:

H1 TIME FRAME

Aaj, ke main EURUSD pair mein aaj ka situation kaisa dekhna chahunga, koi badi movement ka intezaar nahi hai. Yaad dila dun ke humne is hafte ko 1.0909 open kiya tha, aur pichle hafte ko 1.0915 close kiya tha. Agar hum is hafte ko close karte hain 1.0908 ke neeche, lekin 1.0800 ke neeche nahi, toh yeh ek pretty unusual possibility offer karega for a Pregnant pattern with two weekly candles. Agar yeh hua toh, yeh global reversal ko indicate karega towards 0.9550 aur usse neeche, kyunki 1.2350 se 0.9550 par exactly is pattern ke through turn kiya tha. Overall, the EURUSD present price of 1.0901 is expected to fall to 1.0860 in the near future.



EUR/USD pair ka behakna, specifically ninth figure ke neeche (Kijun H4), European aur Asian players ki uncertainty ko dikhata hai, American colleagues market mein nahi hote hain. Waapis aayenge aur 21.00 (Moscow time) tak halchal machaenge.

Where did the German GDP numbers come from? Ho sakta hai, lekin weekend se pehle khelne ka bada rationale hoga US manufacturing aur services sectors ke composite PMI index ke data ko.

Support is at 1.0864 (Murray +1.8), and resistance is at 1.0986 (Murray +2.8).



EURUSD ki baat ki jaaye, yahan bhi kuch zyada change nahi hua hai, kyunki bhi mukhya hai. Aur bilkul, kal ki instability thi, zyadatar badh rahi thi. Is this what the 9th figure's region looks like? 1.0945 par fake breakout hua hai, lekin doosri taraf. Aur aaj bhi Americans ki chhuti hai, kisi wajah se PMI hoga, hume pehle Germany ka GDP mil jayega.

Overall, the situation is challenging. Isliye koi specific concepts bhi nahi hain, mere liye koi urgent aims nahi hain. If 1.0950 area mein chale gaye toh main wahan sale karunga, kam se kam ek rollback ke dauran.




H4 TIME FRAME


Main USD/JPY haftawar ki chart dekh raha hoon aur yeh pair 149.695 tak pahunch gaya hai resistance se apni teesri currency intervention ki thi Bank of Japan. The level is 137.368. The yield spread on 10-year bonds is quite big. Us waqt afwahen thi ke Bank of Japan ke naye hisse daaraney wale koi aisa shakhs hoga jo puri tarah se Bank of Japan ki policy structure ko badal dega.


Phir pair ki taraf rukh kiya 127.536 support level. Phir Bank of Japan ne awaz uthayi aur kaha ke das saal ke koi kadam monetary policy ko tight karne ki taraf ishara nahi karta. Hisse darane wale ke naam naye. Unhone kaha ke woh Bank of Japan ki policies mein ke fayde nuksan se zyada hain.

So, kuch waisa hi rakheinge jaisa hai? Ant mein, dono badh gaye aur kuch nahi badla. Bank of Japan ne kaha ki woh policy nahi badlenge aur sab kuch waisa hi rahega. Afwahen thi ke Bank of Japan is saal kisi bhi foreign exchange intervention ko nahi chalayega kyunki yeh mehnga khel hai.

Main ne yeh is liye kiya kyunki bijli mehngi thi aur log gusse mein thay, yeh karna pada Bank of Japan. Natija ke afwahen sach ho gayi, aur pair ko touch kiya 149.695 resistance level. Pair naye urooj par jayega aur 153.889 resistance ki taraf badhega. Mera nazariya wahi hai, mujhe yakeen hai ke pair upar jayega kyunki Bank of Japan is saal apni currency ke liye koi active kadam nahi uthayega. Woh sirf saal ke end tak negative interest rates ko chhod de.

EURUSD TECHNICALLY ANALYSIS:

EUR/USD pair ne apne 15 hafton ke unchi se, jo ke 1.1000 ke upar thi, Tuesday ko peeche hat gayi aur kareeb 1.0980 par gir gayi jab market mein profit booking shuru ho gayi. Pair ki haali surge ko neeche khiche jane ke liye traders cautious thay, khaas kar jab pair ne bahut tezi se aage badh gaya tha. Pair ki tezi ne kisi ke bhi asani se 200-day simple moving average (SMA) ko paar kar diya tha aur mid-November mein 1.0800 ke qareeb pahunch gaya tha. Euro ke liye jaari rehne wala is mazboot trend mein kuch khaas wajahen shamil hain, jese ke US dollar ki kamzori aur ummeed hai ke European Central Bank (ECB) apni asaan monetary policy stance ko maintain karegi. Lekin kuch isharaat hain ke ye tezi thamne wali hai. 50-day moving average price ke neeche hai aur bearish territory mein hai, iska matlab hai ke underlyng selling pressure abhi bhi hai. Iske alawa, Relative Strength Index (RSI) overbought levels ki taraf badh raha hai, iska matlab hai ke pair ko correction ki taraf le jane ki khatra hai.

Kuch investors ne uske remarks ko ishara samjha ke ECB apni policy ko expected se jaldi tight karne ki taiyaari kar rahi hai, jiske wajah se stocks mein giravat aayi aur bond yields mein thodi si tezi aayi. Lekin doosre log maante hain ke Lagarde ne bas ye batane ki koshish ki thi ke ECB kisi bhi exit strategy ko consider karne ke liye tayyar hai, aur actual stimulus reduction abhi bhi mahino door hai. EUR/USD pair ne haali mein 1.0950 ke important resistance level ko paar kiya hai, jo July ki downwave ki 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ko paar kar raha hai. 1.0950 resistance level ke paar jane se pair par uparward pressure badh sakta hai, jiske baad agla potential target 1.1065 level ho sakta hai, jo August ke wave ka top hai. Lekin traders ko correction ki taraf le jane ki khatra se parwaah karni chahiye, khaas kar agar RSI reading aur bhi badhti hai aur overbought levels ki taraf badh jaati hai. Agar 1.0950 support level ko paar kiya jata hai to ye ek gehra pullback ko darust kar sakta hai, jisme 200-day SMA 1.0800 potential support level ban sakta hai.

EUR/USD pair mein tezi aayi, 1.1016 ki unchi tak pohancha. Yah chadhav dekha gaya jab pair tezi se badha aur mukhya karan US Dollar ke dynamics ka asar tha. Market mein ab US arthik data ka intezaar hai, EUR/USD gati mein badlav ki tayyari hai.

Haal ke US arthik soochiyo ka EUR/USD par asar:

EUR/USD ne tezi dekhai, 1.1000 ke upar gaya, lekin US Dollar ki majbooti ne ise uttejit kiya. US ki kuch arthik data mein kami aayi, jaise ki 209,000 ke neeche Initial Jobless Claims, jo panch hafte ka sabse kam parh hai. Lekin, Durable Goods Orders mein 5.4% ki giravat aayi, jo Dollar ki majbooti ke liye sanket hai.

USD trends aur EUR/USD jodi par asar:

Dollar Index (DXY) ne 102.60 ke aaspass thoda giravat dikhaayi, jo Treasury Yields ko bhi kam kiya, yeh dikhata hai ke US arthik data aur Dollar ki gati mein correlation hai. Aane wale US data releases par depend karega ki Dollar ki raftar kaise banti hai.

Haftawarik chart ka anumaan aur EUR/USD gati ke liye sambhav scenarios:

EUR/USD ke liye, 1.1000 ke upar rehna aur 1.1061 paar karne se neeche giravat ki sambhavna hai, jo 200-day moving average (DMA) ko 1.1153 par challenge kar sakti hai. Virodh mein, kharidaron ke punarvas se 1.0800 ki ore giravat ki ummeed hai.

EUR/USD currency pair ne aik numaya izafah dekha hai aur 1.0445 ke local bottom se 570 points izafah hua hai. Hamari peechli tajaweez thi ke ye upward trend jari rahega, halaanke humne ittifaqan izafay ke ba-wajood isme correction ke mumkinat ko tasleem kiya. Maine aik grid strategy aur scalping technique istemal ki, jiski wajah se 100th mark ke breakthrough ke baad 161.8 aur 261.8 ke darjah haasil hue. Tarmeemi intraday pivot points ke mutabiq, hum 1.1024 aur 1.1054 ke darjah haasil kar sakte hain. Lekin haftay ka pivot point November ke ikhtitaam ki taraf barhna zaroori hai, jo ke bebaakion ko le kar aye ga. Budh ke economic calendar mein aise maloomat shamil hain jese ke 16:00 baje German Consumer Price Index aur 18:30 baje "Crude Oil Reserves" aur "US GDP", jo ke American trading session ko asar andaaz kare gi. Is ke ilawa, keemat ne 1.1016 ke mark ko paar kiya hai, jo ke lower time frames par aik maqool pullback ko darust karti hai.

EUR/USD ke daire ke technical tor par 1.0960-1.1010 ke resistance zone mein chala gaya hai. 1.0960-70 tak wapas jaana consolidation stage ko darust kar sakta hai aur ye 1.0880-1.0925 ke support zone ya 1.0960-70 ki dobara test ke baad resistance zone ko paar karne ki koshish kar sakta hai. Halaanke mein long positions rakhta hoon, lekin rate ke izafay ko ascending channel ke upper boundary ne mehdood kar diya hai. Halaat ke bawajood ke higher time frame ke manazir ye keh rahe hain ke mojooda izafah munsalik ho sakta hai. Ikhtetaam mein, mazeed izafay ke liye joote mein hoshyari zaroori hai, taake higher time frames se mumkin correction signals ko mad-e-nazar rakha ja sake.

EUR/USD; Market Structure Analysis

Hamari guftagu mein hum tajaweez karain ge mojooda currency pair EUR/USD ki qeemat ke rawaiye par. Haal hi mein aham data, khaas kar United States mein darusti mein izafah, ek kami ko darust kar raha hai, jo ke Federal Reserve ki maali siyaset mein narami ki taraf ishara karti hai. Jabke dollar ki qeemat girne ka imkaan hai, lekin saaf izhaarat nahi hain. Is natijay mein, hum tawajjuh dete hain ek musalsal upper movement par, maqsoodat ko paar karte huye aur 10th figure ke oopar ja kar, bullish pressure ka dominion qaim hai. Aane wale trading din ahem hai is wajah se ke state GDP figures jaari honge. Haan, 1.1050 ke upar chadhna mumkin hai, lekin main in qeemat levels par bechne ki signals ke liye muhtat rehta hoon. Haan lekin, is waqt in levels par koi bechne ki signals mojood nahi hain. Euro ke liye tawakul hai ke ye H1 resistance par 1.0980 tak laotarta hai, jisme agar ye level nahi hota toh aik u-turn mumkin hai. Haan lekin, pair ne H1 resistance ko todiya aur 1.1015 tak pahuncha, jise ek mansoob u-turn ke baad kiya gaya. Currency pair ab H1 support ki taraf girne ki koshish kar raha hai jo pehle 1.0910 par muntakhib tha, jo ke ab thoda buland hai, 1.0980 ke din ke balance ko torne par mabni hai.



Aaj, pair ka din ka balance 1.0980 par hai, jabke H1 support 1.0940 par mazbooti se jamaya ja raha hai, jo ke mumkin hai ke 1.0910 tak barh sake. Agar 1.0980 ka balance mumkin nahi hai, toh ek rollback ho sakta hai, jise ek upper trend ke jariye jari rakhne ka imkaan hai, jise mumkin hai ke 1.1040 tak pahunch sake, jahan aik u-turn ke liye tijarat ho sakti hai. Aik breakthrough 1.1070 aur 1.1090 tak pahuncha sakti hai