Gold

Agar candle ka body imbalance area ke andar band ho jata hai, to ye is baat ki nishani hai ke market ke players is area ki izzat nahi kar rahe hain. Is liye hum agle reaction ko dekhte hain. Phir ya to ek breakout hota hai, aur hum naye scenario par nazar rakhte hain, ya ek nayi candle pichhli candle ke maximum/minimum se liquidity ko nikaal sakti hai aur palat sakti hai, jise ek poora reaction dikhaya ja sakta hai. Aur yahan duality ki koi jagah nahi honi chahiye. Author ki recommendations ko dobara dekhain. Ye areas wo hain jo zyada tar price ko attract karte hain, aur inhi areas mein reactions ke sath movements shuru hote hain. Chaliye ab XAU/USD (GOLD) currency pair ki halat ko dobara analyse karte hain. Dekhein, price ne pehli swing liquidity ko 2477.278 ki value ke sath test kiya hai, aur reaction kahan gaya? Sabse qareeb imbalance (price gap) ka location kaafi door hai - 2417.264, lekin isay nazarandaz nahi kiya ja sakta. Ye samajhne ke liye ke kya price ek qareeb imbalance bana sakti hai, humein current daily candle ke close hone ka intezar karna padega. Agar ye close hota hai, jaisa chart par dikhaya gaya hai, to ye naye din ke liye growth ke haq mein support hai. Ye samajhne ki buniyad hai.

Current situation mein, mujhe ummeed hai ke southward correction khatam hogi aur upward scenario continue hoga. Mere khayalat screen ke andar hain. Lekin aaj mujhe is asset mein dilchaspi nahi hai. Ye samajhna zaroori hai ke kya current situation mein support ke taur par nayi imbalance banegi ya nahi. Abhi, nazar aata hai ke correction abhi tak mukammal nahi hui. Magar is horizontal line ka breakout false sabit hua, isliye hum ab downward correction dekh rahe hain. Main ye nahi keh sakta ke humare paas "double top" configuration hai, kyunki instrument quotes sideways range ke andar move kar rahe hain aur upper points of maximums lower border of trading range ke support level -2384 se zyada mukhtalif nahi hain.

Kal US inflation data ke publication ki ummeed hai, isliye mujhe zyada market volatility ka intezar hai. Agar gold north ki taraf jata hai, to hum historical maximums ke naye record dekhenge. South se, humara qareeb support level -2426 hai. Iska breakout decline ko -2384 ke

Shuruati marahil mein, 2424 support level ke neeche break ka anticipation tha, jo ke ho gaya hai. Dusre marahil mein, is broken level ko test kiya gaya aur yeh test confirm bhi ho gaya hai. Magar, teesra marahil, jo consolidation ko darshata hai, abhi tak nahi hua. Jab consolidation hoga, to downward trend dobara shuru ho sakta hai, jo resistance ki taraf le jaa sakta hai. Jab tak consolidation nahi hota, upward trend ka outcome undecided hai, aur sirf waqt hi batayega. Isliye, medium-term strategy abhi bhi relevant hai. Main consolidation ka wait kar raha hoon, jo ke ek aur upward move ke zaroorat hai.
Pehle humne hourly time frame discuss kiya, lekin ab daily chart par nazar dalte hain.

Daily time frame (D1) par, ek sideways wedge bana tha, jahan gold 76.43 par trade kar raha tha. 84.09 se rebound karne ke baad, resistance line se consistent wave of decline shuru hui, jo gold ko robust downward movement ke saath gap ke saath le gayi. Channel ke lower limit ki ummeed nahi thi, jo last week ke closing levels 74.09 se further decline ka signal hai. Yahan price support line ko hit karegi, jahan main rebound aur upward correction ki ummeed kar raha hoon.

Medium-term perspective se, continued decline ka indication hai, aur gold market opening se decrease honay ke liye taiyar hai. 2353.39 par price minimum TF tak pahunch gayi aur upward adjust hui. Price green zone ko cross karegi aur growth ke dauran red zone ko support level ke roop mein use karegi. Yeh MA resistance level ko break karegi, jahan red line 2390.74 par hai, aur mid-trend level tak rise karegi, jahan black line 2412.74 par hai. Price is mid-TF level (black line) ko bhi break kar sakti hai aur double top level 2429.19 tak move kar sakti hai.

H4 time frame par, gold bullish tendencies dikhata hai. 5 SMA aur 20 SMA ne 2385 level par cross kiya, jabke 200 SMA 2372 level par hai. Yeh crossover gold ke liye strong upward trend ko signal karta hai. Pichle kuch dinon ki market fluctuations ko bhool jaiye; gold kal 2457 level tak pohch gaya, jaisa maine anticipate kiya tha. Aaj, gold 2470 level ko test karne ke liye tayaar hai. Ek strong bullish trend aa raha hai, jo gold ko is mahine 2500-level milestone ke liye prepare kar raha hai. Yahan kuch strategies hain jo potential buying opportunities ke liye hain:

economic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya.Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yeneconomic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya.Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot

Gold ki Qeemat Mein Ahem Izafa

Jumma ke din, sone ki qeemat mein ahem izafa dekha gaya, jo ke dosray musalsal din bhi barh rahi thi. Is izafay ka sabab ye hai ke logon ka ye andaza hai ke Federal Reserve apni September ki meeting mein shayad sood ki شرah kam karne ka sochay. Is wajah se US Treasury bond yields aur US dollar dono ne girawat dekhi, jo ke sone ke liye faida mand sabit hui. Din ke aakhir mein, XAU/USD (sona US dollar ke muqable mein) ka joar $2,507 tha.

ETFs se Support

Sone ki qeemat ko support mil raha hai kyun ke gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) mein barqarar inflows ho rahe hain. July ka mahina doosra musalsal mahina tha jisme ye inflows dekhe gaye, jo ke aksar European aur Asian funds se aaye the. Fed Chair Jerome Powell ki semi-annual gavaahi ke baad, investors ab bechaini se US ke June ke inflation data ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo ke Jumeraat ko announce kiya jayega. Is ke ilawa, Initial Jobless Claims aur University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment ka data bhi sone ke future trajectory ka ta'ayun karega.

Fed Chair ke Iqdamat

Apni US House of Representatives mein testimony ke doran, Fed Chair Jerome Powell ne apni pehle ki Senate committee ke samnay ki gayi guftagu dohraayi. Unhone mehngai ko manage karne mein jo taraqqi hui usay tasleem kiya lekin ehtiyat baratne ko kaha, ye kehte huay ke sood ki شرah kam karne ka matlab ye nahi ke 2% inflation ka target zaroor hasil hoga.

Neechay ki Janib Palatne ka Khatar

Agar price pattern ka neckline $2,279 se neeche toot jaye, to sone ki qeemat mein neeche ki janib palatne ka khatar hai. Is surat mein ek mehfooz target $2,541 set kiya ja sakta hai, jo pattern ki height se 0.618 ke extrapolated downward ratio pe mabni hai. Filhal, short aur medium term mein trend sideways lagta hai, jab ke long-term outlook sone ke liye bullish hai.

Moving Average aur Market Outlook

Qeemti dhat ke liye ek potential risk 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) tak retracement ka hai, jo is waqt $2,431 pe hai. Magar, 27 June ko dekhi gayi downward trendline ke upar breakout ne market ka outlook zyada bullish kar diya hai.

Nateejatan, jab ke sone ki qeemat mukhtalif asbaab ki wajah se upar ja rahi hai, jisme Federal Reserve ke iqdamat aur ETF inflows shamil hain, lekin ehtiyat zaroori hai kyun ke potential downward reversals aur corrections market pe asar daal sakti hain.

Economic data ki kami gold commodities ko itni unchai tak pohnchne se nahi rok sakti, magar ek retail trader jo aksar short-term investment horizon rakhta hai, aise conditions ko counter-trend strategy ke liye bohot interesting samajh sakta hai, yani bechne ka. Agar hum peeche dekhein, to H1 timeframe par ek bullish signal nazar aaya tha jo inverted head and shoulders pattern banata hai, lekin kyunki ye pattern resistance area mein ban raha tha, isliye itna interesting nahi lag raha tha. Lekin market ki apni ek direction hoti hai, jahan price turant all-time high record kar rahi thi neckline 2510 ko break karte hue 2531 tak. Ab jab market ne Wednesday enter kiya hai, to gold market trading options ke liye ab bhi bohot se mauqe hain.

Halanki price upar ja rahi hai, Daily aur H4 basis par ye increase strong momentum se supported nahi lagti, kyunki price position jo candlestick ke zariye represent ho rahi hai, wo Upper Bollingerbands line ke neeche closing dikhati hai, isse structure lower high banata hai Bollingerbands ke muqablay mein. Ye ek kamzori ka signal hai jo aksar traders ko samajh nahi aata. H4 basis par movement ko monitor karte hue, ye nazar aata hai ke high price position high momentum indicator ke saath nahi hai, isliye ye strong bearish divergence signal hai. Halanki price future trading mein seedha nahi gir sakti, ye swing traders ke liye ek accha signal hai jo sell positions banana shuru kar rahe hain. RSI 14 indicator bhi neeche ki taraf point kar raha hai aur lower low structure bana raha hai.

H1 basis par structure zyada interesting hai, jahan ek bearish flag pattern nazar aaya hai jo bearish candle ke baad ban gaya jo Middle Bollingerbands ko penetrate karti hai, aur phir ek corrective increase dekhne ko milti hai jo sequential candlestick ki shape se choti hai. Ye correction aur upar ja sakti hai blue resistance 2523 - 2531 ki taraf, kyunki pehle price yellow support 2500 tak gir gayi thi lekin buyers ne wahan resistance dikhayi. Jab tak yellow support jo significant demand hai, successfully penetrate nahi hoti, tab tak gold movement ka potential sideways reh sakta hai between blue resistance aur yellow support. Yahan se main ne trading plan banaya hai.

Gold ki Qeemat Mein Ahem Izafa
Jumma ke din, sone ki qeemat mein ahem izafa dekha gaya, jo ke dosray musalsal din bhi barh rahi thi. Is izafay ka sabab ye hai ke logon ka ye andaza hai ke Federal Reserve apni September ki meeting mein shayad sood ki شرah kam karne ka sochay. Is wajah se US Treasury bond yields aur US dollar dono ne girawat dekhi, jo ke sone ke liye faida mand sabit hui. Din ke aakhir mein, XAU/USD (sona US dollar ke muqable mein) ka joar $2,507 tha.

ETFs se Support

Sone ki qeemat ko support mil raha hai kyun ke gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) mein barqarar inflows ho rahe hain. July ka mahina doosra musalsal mahina tha jisme ye inflows dekhe gaye, jo ke aksar European aur Asian funds se aaye the. Fed Chair Jerome Powell ki semi-annual gavaahi ke baad, investors ab bechaini se US ke June ke inflation data ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo ke Jumeraat ko announce kiya jayega. Is ke ilawa, Initial Jobless Claims aur University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment ka data bhi sone ke future trajectory ka ta'ayun karega.

Fed Chair ke Iqdamat

Apni US House of Representatives mein testimony ke doran, Fed Chair Jerome Powell ne apni pehle ki Senate committee ke samnay ki gayi guftagu dohraayi. Unhone mehngai ko manage karne mein jo taraqqi hui usay tasleem kiya lekin ehtiyat baratne ko kaha, ye kehte huay ke sood ki شرah kam karne ka matlab ye nahi ke 2% inflation ka target zaroor hasil hoga.

Neechay ki Janib Palatne ka Khatar

Agar price pattern ka neckline $2,279 se neeche toot jaye, to sone ki qeemat mein neeche ki janib palatne ka khatar hai. Is surat mein ek mehfooz target $2,541 set kiya ja sakta hai, jo pattern ki height se 0.618 ke extrapolated downward ratio pe mabni hai. Filhal, short aur medium term mein trend sideways lagta hai, jab ke long-term outlook sone ke liye bullish hai.

Moving Average aur Market Outlook

Qeemti dhat ke liye ek potential risk 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) tak retracement ka hai, jo is waqt $2,431 pe hai. Magar, 27 June ko dekhi gayi downward trendline ke upar breakout ne market ka outlook zyada bullish kar diya hai.

Nateejatan, jab ke sone ki qeemat mukhtalif asbaab ki wajah se upar ja rahi hai, jisme Federal Reserve ke iqdamat aur ETF inflows shamil hain, lekin ehtiyat zaroori hai kyun ke potential downward reversals aur corrections market pe asar daal sakti hain.

hai, lagta hai ke bullish trend ko maintain karna chahti hai. Price ne support (S1) 2382 tak correction ki, jo SMA 200 ke sath dynamic support bhi banata hai. Lekin, downward correction itni neeche nahi gayi aur price ne bounce kar ke weekend ke close prices ke around pivot point (PP) 2429 tak pahunch gayi. Agar price ka increase rally bullish trend direction ko follow karta hai, to price 2477 ke aas-paas ke nearest high prices ko test kar sakti hai aur resistance (R1) 2490 ki taraf bhi ja sakti hai. Lekin, Gold ke price pattern ka structure abhi tak clear nahi hai kyunki 2477 ke high prices aur 2352 ke low prices dono hi pass nahi hue hain. Kehna ye hai ke price movement range narrow ho rahi hai, jo ek triangle pattern banane ki ijaazat deti hai. Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ne uptrend momentum show kiya hai lekin green histogram volume level 0 ke upar ya positive area mein itna wide nahi hai. Stochastic indicator ke parameters jo levels 50 aur 80 ke beech cross ho rahe hain, price increase rally ko support kar sakte hain.

Setup Entry Position:

Agar bullish trend direction aur price movements jo do Moving Average lines ke upar hain ko dekhte hue trade karna hai, to BUY moment ka intezar karein. Entry position ko place karne se pehle ensure karein ke closing prices pivot point (PP) 2429 ke upar ho ya high prices 2436 tak pahunchi ho. Stochastic indicator ke parameters jo level 50 ke aas-paas cross ho rahe hain, ko initial confirmation ke taur par use kiya ja sakta hai. AO indicator ka volume histogram jo level 0 ke upar ya positive area mein hai, uska continue widen hona zaroori hai taake uptrend momentum zyada valid ho. Take profit aur stop loss targets ko Risk: Reward ratio 1:1.5 ke hisaab se set karein, jisse stop loss 100 pips aur take profit 150 pips entry open position se hoga. Is tarah se maine journal update ka zikr kiya. Umeed hai ke trading plan jo humne banaya hai, agle haftay ke trading activities ke liye behtareen nateeje dega. Happy Weekend Sabko!

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Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold ke Daam ka Andaza: XAU/USD Record High se Gira, $2,500 ke Upar Barqarar

Gold Tuesday ke pehle half mein barhta raha, aur $2,531.60 ke all-time high par pohnch gaya, jo ke US Dollar ki kamzori aur safe-haven metal ki demand ke wajah se tha, khaaskar Asia se. Federal Reserve ke interest rates kam karne ki ummeed se USD ki kamzori barh rahi hai, jis se Chinese authorities aur individual investors sona kharid rahe hain. Magar, Wall Street ke khulne ke sath, profit-taking ke wajah se XAU/USD $2,500 ke aas-paas aa gaya.

American session ke dauran market ka optimism kam ho gaya, aur FOMC Minutes ka intezaar hai. China major gold buyers mein se ek hai aur speculation hai ke USD aur kamzor hoga. XAU/USD apni corrective decline ko extend kar sakta hai lekin abhi bhi bearish nahi hai.

European close se pehle equities ka positive tone khatam ho gaya, aur zyada tar local indexes ne red mein close kiya. US indexes bhi negative trend follow kar rahe hain aur modest losses ke sath trade kar rahe hain, lekin record highs se door nahi hain. Overall sentiment upbeat hai, aur US Dollar ab bhi piche hai, XAU/USD ke intraday slump ke bawajood.

Wednesday ko focus Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes par hoga. Yeh document aam taur pe meeting ke teen haftay baad release hota hai aur policymakers ke soch aur aane wale decisions par additional clues provide karta hai. Phir bhi, is document ke expectations ko pura na karne ke chances hain aur USD par kam asar dalne ki umeed hai, kyunki policymakers ne ek dovish tone apnaya hai. Market participants ko lagta hai ke Fed September mein rates kam karenge aur Minutes is belief ko nahi badal sakti.

XAU/USD Short-Term Technical Outlook

Daily chart ke mutabiq, XAU/USD pair ki gains ko extend karne ki jagah hai, recent pullback record highs se corrective dekha gaya hai. Pair ab bhi apni sabhi moving averages se upar trade kar raha hai, jo bullish slopes maintain karte hain. Momentum indicator ne apni recent peak se retreat kiya hai aur firmly south ki taraf ja raha hai positive levels mein. Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator 65 ke aas-paas consolidate kar raha hai. Is scenario mein ek steeper decline unlikely lagti hai.

4-hour chart yeh suggest karta hai ke ongoing retracement additional declines confirm nahi karti. Technical indicators sharp retreat ke bawajood apni midlines ke upar hain. Moving averages bhi upward slopes maintain kar rahe hain, 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) ab $2,492.70 ke aas-paas hai aur 100 SMA $2,439.60 ke aas-paas aim kar raha hai.

Gold ke Bars Ab $1 Million Bars

Dollar selling jo Friday ko shuru hui aur Sunday raat ko overnight markets mein continue hui, woh Monday ko bhi chalti rahi, BBDXY 4 index points gira. Currencies aaj subah kaafi healthier lag rahi hain... Aussie dollar (A$) .67 cents ke upar trade kar raha hai, aur Asian currencies bhi dollar ke against climb kar rahi hain... Chinese renminbi bhi Asian currency rally mein participate kar raha hai...

Lagta hai traders ko yeh soch lag gayi hai ke Fed/Cabal/Cartel dollar ko debase karne wale hain... Dollar index is waqt 2022 ke baad sabse low hai, aur ab dollar ka downswing shuru ho raha hai...

Gold ne kal koshish ki ke positive position mein wapas aaye, lekin har baar jab gold aage barhne ki koshish karta, short paper traders usko rok dete. Gold kal $3.70 ke loss ke sath close hua, $2,504.80 par. Silver ne short paper traders ka samna nahi kiya, jo ajeeb tha, magar Silver ne 32-cents gain kiya aur $29.34 par close hua.

Oil ka daam neeche gir raha hai aur $74 handle ke sath trade kar raha hai, aur 10-year yield bhi 3.86% par end hua. Overnight markets mein dollar ko na to becha gaya aur na hi kharida gaya, BBDXY kal ke closing price 1.3262 par start hota hai. Lagta hai dollar ab long-term weak trend ki taraf ja raha hai.

Gold ne profit taking aur short paper trading ko shakl se nikal kar sahi direction mein move karna shuru kiya hai. Aaj subah Gold $21 se upar hai aur Silver bhi 41-cents gain ke sath aage barh raha hai.

China ne apne banks ko keh diya hai ke wo phir se Gold kharidein, chahe gold ka high price ho. Yeh Gold ke liye achi news hai ke China wapas physical Gold kharid raha hai.

Aur Thoda Gold ke Baare Mein

Aapne suna? 400-ounce Gold bars ab $1 Million ke hain. Jaise hi precious metal ka spot price $2,500 per troy ounce se upar gaya, har ek 400-ounce Gold bar ki value $1 million se zyada ho gayi. Chuck ne kaha ke unhone kuch 400-ounce Gold Bars dekhi hain aur sochta hai ke unka value $1 Million tak pohnchne par achha lagta hai!

GOLD ke liye outlook
Assalam Alaikum! Mujhe lagta hai keh sona farokht ki taraf palatne ko taiyar nahin hai. Is bat ka zyada imkan hai keh dhat maujudah satah ke ird-gird izafa jari rakhega. Mera pahla hadaf 2,558.84 ki muzahmati satah par hai, jahan dhat oopri trendline ka bhi test karega. Un buland satahon se, ham farokht ki taraf ek reversal dekh sakte hain, lekin sirf 2,512.89 ki support satah par islahi eqdam ke hisse ke taur par, Wahan se, asset dobara kharid ki taraf mud sakta hai aur 2,587.82 ki oopri muzahmati satah ki taraf badh sakta hai. Wahan se, zyada numaya kami waqe ho sakti hai.
GOLD

Gold ka Technical Analysis
Hello, everyone! Gold prices abhi bullish trend mein hain, jo ke fundamental analysis se support hota hai. Agar price ne $2530 ka level break kar diya, to agla target $2550 aur $2570 hoga. Duniya mein critical situation hai aur USD index bearish pressure mein hai, jo technical analysis ko badal kar prices ko $2600 level tak pohancha sakta hai.

Pichlay week mein gold ne apni rally resume ki aur ek aur record high tak pohanch gaya, jo pichle record high $2477 points ko tor gaya. Thodi consolidation ke baad, jo $2477 level ke neeche hui thi, price ne resistance ko tor ke uper rise kiya aur $2530 area mein peak form kiya. Yeh price ko target area tak pohanchne mein madad de raha hai aur expected scenario ko poori tarah realize karne de raha hai. Is waqt, price chart supertrend green zone mein hai, jo buyers ke control mein hone ka indication hai.

Gold apne all-time high ke qareeb hai, jo ke weaker US dollar se benefit le raha hai, aur short-term recession ke fears ko bada raha hai. Gold deals $2546 per ounce tak chali gayi hain jo kal ke close $2494 per ounce se uper hain. Precious metal Monday ko $2548 per high tak gaya tha lekin intraday low $2488 tak gir gaya.



Abhi prices weekly highs ke qareeb rise kar rahi hain. Main support area ko test kiya gaya aur successfully hold kiya gaya, jo ek upward bounce aur growth continuation ko lead kar raha hai, jo upward vector ki importance ko highlight karta hai. Uptrend ko continue rakhne ke liye, price ko $2477 ke uper consolidate karna hoga, jo ke main support area ke border ke through hai. Is area ka retest aur rebound ek aur upward wave ko form karne dega, jo $2569 aur $2601 ke area ko target karega.

Agar support break ho gaya aur price $2449 ke reversal level ke neeche move kar gayi, to yeh current scenario ko cancel karne ka signal hoga.

Friday ko, gold prices mein ek notable izafa dekhne ko mila, jo ke doosre lagataar din ke liye positive trend continue kar raha tha. Yeh rise is speculation ki wajah se ho sakta hai ke Federal Reserve apni September meeting mein interest rates ko kam karne ka soch raha hai. Is ke natije mein, US Treasury bond yields aur US dollar dono ne decline kiya, jo gold ke liye ek boost ban gaya. Trading day ke end par, XAU/USD (gold against the US dollar) pair $2,507 par value tha.

Support from ETFs:

Gold prices ko support mil raha hai sustained inflows ki wajah se gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) mein. July ne doosre lagataar mahine ke liye aise inflows record kiye, jo ke zyadatar European aur Asian funds se driven the. Fed Chair Jerome Powell ki semi-annual testimony ke baad, investors ab keenly US inflation data ka intezar kar rahe hain jo ke June ka hoga aur Thursday ko announce kiya jayega. Iske ilawa, Initial Jobless Claims aur University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data gold ke future trajectory ka taayun karne mein crucial role play karenge.

Fed Chair's Remarks:

Apni testimony ke dauran US House of Representatives ke samne, Fed Chair Jerome Powell ne apni pehle ki gayi comments ko Senate committee ke samne dohraya. Unho ne inflation ko manage karne mein ki gayi progress ka izhar kiya, magar caution ke sath kaha ke interest rates kam karna 2% inflation target achieve karne ki guarantee nahi hai.

Risk of Downward Reversal:

Gold prices ke liye ek potential risk hai downward reversal ka agar price pattern ka neckline $2,279 se neeche break kar jata hai. Is scenario mein, ek conservative target $2,541 par set kiya ja sakta hai, jo ke pattern ke height se extrapolated downward ratio 0.618 par based hai. Filhal, trend short aur medium term mein sideways nazar aata hai, jab ke long-term outlook gold ke liye bullish hai.

Moving Average aur Market Outlook:

Precious metal ke liye ek potential risk hai retracement ka 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) tak, jo ke abhi $2,431 par positioned hai. Magar, June 27 ko observed downward trendline ke upar breakout ne market outlook ko zyadatar bullish stance mein shift kar diya hai.

Summary mein, jab ke gold prices upward trajectory par hain mukhtalif factors ki wajah se, jin mein Federal Reserve speculation aur ETF inflows shamil hain, lekin caution ko exercise karna zaroori hai kyun ke potential downward reversals aur corrections ab bhi market ko impact kar sakti hain.

Traders jo yeh ummeed kar rahe the ke minutes dovish honge, unki nazar ab US ke inflation ke development par hai jo ke dheere dheere slow ho raha hai. Isne agle mahine rate cut ki expectations ko barha diya hai aur isse gold prices ko faida hua hai. Magar lagta hai ke traders ab bhi cautiously minutes ke release ka intezar kar rahe hain. Is ke ilawa, woh Fed Chairman ke Jackson Hole meeting ke statement ko bhi dhyan se dekhain ge jo weekend par honi hai.

Technical taur par, gold prices ne apne naye all-time high se correction le kar daily time frame me SMA5 ke dynamic support tak aa gaya hai. Magar yeh pressure is support ke upar se reject ho raha hai, aur Wednesday ke opening price ke aas paas bounce kar raha hai. Agar yeh support milta rahe, to trend upar ki taraf barhne ki ummeed hai. Khaaskar agar yeh latest inside bar pattern aur purane inside bar pattern ke projections ko cross karke 2488.08 aur 2508.30 ke prices ko paar kar jaye. Is se yeh agle projections tak ja sakta hai jo ke 2572.69 aur 2589.01 hain. Intraday, iska position trend channel pattern ke lower line ke aas paas hai jo triangle pattern projection line se bana hai, lagbhag 2489.86 ke price par. Magar yeh pressure ab bhi triangle pattern ke projection line ke upar se reflect ho sakta hai jo 2501.31 ke flip area ke aas paas hai aur SMA5 ke dynamic resistance ke aas paas jo ke 2510.22 ke price par hai. Agar yeh resistance ko paar karne me kamiyab hota hai, to yeh trend channel pattern ke upper line tak retrace kar sakta hai aur purane inside bar pattern ke eleventh projection aur naye inside bar pattern ke first projection ko retest kar sakta hai jo ke 2530.58 aur 2537.35 ke prices hain, aur agle projections tak bhi ja sakta hai. Ek buy option tab prepare kiya jaye ga agar position SMA5 curve ke upar bounce kar jaye H4 time frame me jo ke 2510.22 ke price par hai. Target 2530.58 se 2537.35 ke price range me rakha jaye ga. Agar position successfully resistance ko penetrate kar leti hai, to ek reentry buy prepare kiya jaye ga. Target 2572.69 ke price par rakha jaye ga.

Ek sell option tab prepare kiya jaye ga agar position pressure me rahe aur purane inside bar pattern ke ninth projection ko 2489.86 ke price par penetrate kar jaye. Target SMA50 ke dynamic support ke aas paas rakha jaye ga jo ke 2473.81 ke price par hai. Dusra sell option tab prepare kiya jaye ga agar increase flip area ke niche roka jaye jo 2530.58 se 2537.35 ke prices hain. Target 2510.22 se 2501.31 ke prices ke flip area ke aas paas rakha jaye ga.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD stabilizes above $2,500

US Dollar mazeed kamzor hota hai jab job creation data ko downward revise kiya gaya. Federal Open Market Committee July meeting ke Minutes release karegi. XAU/USD ka corrective decline jaari reh sakta hai, lekin ziada gehra decline ka koi khatara nahi hai.

XAU/USD Wednesday ke beech me thori si kami ke saath trade kar raha hai, aur ek choti si intraday range me qaid hai. Yeh pair thodi dair ke liye $2,500 mark se neeche chala gaya, lekin US Dollar par lagataar pressure ki wajah se yeh apne intraday losses ko kam kar saka.

Sarmayakaron ne Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ke Minutes ka intizar kiya. Federal Reserve (Fed) ne 31 July ko meeting ki aur market players ko ziada dovish tone ke sath hairan kar diya, jahan officials ne inflation ke baray me kam concerns dikhaye aur employment sector par zyada tawajjo di, ye maan kar ke yeh sector dheela ho raha hai. Chairman Jerome Powell ne agle press conference me kaha ke September rate cut "table par hai", jo ke Minutes me tasdiq hona chahiye.

Isi dauran, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) ke revision ne dikhaya ke US economy ne March 2024 tak ke 12 mahino me asal mein 818K jobs kam create kiye jo ke pehle report kiye gaye the. Waqayi job growth pehle se reported se takriban 30% kam thi. Yeh khabar ek aney wale interest rate cut ke case ko mazeed support karti hai, jo ke USD ko kamzor banaye rakhta hai.

XAU/USD ka short-term technical outlook
Daily chart ke mutabiq XAU/USD pair apni sari moving averages ke upar hai, jahan ek bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) north ki taraf $2,440 ke aas paas tej ho rahi hai, aur baqi longer ones ke upar bhi bullish hai. Technical indicators, is dauran, kisi khaas direction ke baghair hain lekin apni midlines se kaafi upar hain, jo ke downward movement ke chances ko limit karte hain.

Nazdeek future me, aur 4-hour chart ke mutabiq, corrective slide jaari hai. XAU/USD filhal ek bullish 20 SMA ke sath mushkil me hai, jabke 100 aur 200 SMA ne current level se kaafi neeche upward traction hasil kiya hai. Aakhri mein, technical indicators ne marginally neeche move kiya, jahan Momentum indicator apni 100 line ke qareeb hai. Waqayi suratehaal itni nahi hai ke ek gehra decline aane wala ho, lekin agar FOMC Minutes ke baad $2,500 mark ka waazeh break hota hai, toh agle sessions me ek corrective extension ka darwaza khul sakta hai.

Gold price rehata hai all-time highs ke qareeb Fed rate cut hopes par

Gold $2,500 ke upar stable hai, Fed Minutes ke madad se jo ke agle meeting par ek rate cut ka imkana dikhate hain. US Dollar Index (DXY) 0.20% gir kar 101.10 par aaya, jo ke Greenback ko kamzor banata hai aur Gold prices ko support karta hai. Sarmayakaron ka focus agle US economic data aur Fed Chair Powell ke Jackson Hole Symposium par jumay ko hone wale khitaab par hai.

Gold ne teesri straight day $2,500 ke upar stability banaye rakhi hai jab US Federal Reserve (Fed) ke Minutes ne agle September meeting par interest rate cut ka rasta khola, jo ke Greenback ko kamzor banata hai. XAU/USD $2,511 par trade kar raha hai, jo ke qareeban unchanged hai.

Sarmayakaron ne Fed ke July meeting Minutes ke content ko pasand kiya jese ke Wall Street ne green territory me trade karna jaari rakha. Greenback ne 0.20% ka sharp tumble kiya, jo ke US Dollar Index (DXY) se dikhai deta hai, jo 101.10 ke qareeb hai.

Minutes ne zahir kiya ke ziada tar Fed participants ne kaha ke "agar data expected ke mutabiq aate rahe toh agle meeting me policy ko ease karna likely hoga," mazeed keh kar ke inflation par progress aur unemployment rate ke izafe ne July meeting par ek quarter ya percentage point rate cut ka rasta khola.

Halaanke Fed officials ne July meeting par rates ko unanimous taur par unchanged rakhne ke liye vote kiya, lekin kai officials ne rates ko restrictive samjha. Fed ke dual mandate ke mutabiq, risks ziada balanced ho gaye hain, jese ke ziada tar policymakers maximum employment mandate ko hasil karne par ziada concerned hote ja rahe hain, jabke inflation risks thode se kam ho gaye hain.

Mazeed, traders light economic docket par nigah rakhenge, Initial Jobless Claims, S&P Global PMIs aur housing data ke release ke sath Thursday ko.

Jumay ko, traders Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke Jackson Hole Symposium ke aghaz par khitaab ko dekhenge, jo ke Kansas City Fed ne Wyoming me host kiya hai.

Gold ke aane wale events

• Gold prices mein izafa huwa jab US Treasury bond yields gaye. US 10-year Treasury note 1.5 basis points (bps) neeche 3.792% par aaya.
• Aakhri FOMC minutes ke baad, traders Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December 2024 fed funds futures contract ke mutabiq 102 basis points ke easing ki umeed rakhte hain.
• US Initial Jobless Claims data jo 17 August ko khatam hone wale week ke liye hai, umeed hai ke yeh 230K tak barh jaye, jo ke pichle week ke 227K se ziada hai.
• Business activity jo S&P Global ne zahir ki hai, umeed hai ke Services PMI me thodi kami dikhaye gi 55 se 54 tak. Manufacturing PMI ke barhkar 49.6 par rehne ka imkaan hai.
• Existing Home Sales umeed hai ke 3.89 million se 3.93 million tak barh jaye.

Technical Analysis

Gold price $2,550 ko test karega jab yeh $2,530 ko cross karega



Gold ke daily chart se yeh lagta hai ke yellow metal mazeed upar jane ka imkaan hai agar buyers all-time high $2,531 ko breach kar lete hain. Momentum yeh dikhata hai ke bulls incharge hain, jese ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) ne portray kiya hai.

Isliye, XAU/USD ka pehla resistance $2,550 ka area hoga, uske baad $2,600 mark hoga. Halaanke, Gold ki weakness aur non-yielding metal $2,500 figure ke neeche retrace kar sakta hai.

Is case me, agla support July 17 ka peak $2,483 hoga, uske baad May 20 ka high $2,450 hoga. Jab clear ho jaye, agla stop 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) $2,395 par hoga.

Gold ke Fundamental Aspects

Gold ne insani tareekh me ek ahm kirdar ada kiya hai jese ke yeh ek store of value aur medium of exchange ke taur par widely use hota raha hai. Filhal, iski chamak aur jewelry ke liye istemal ke ilawa, precious metal widely ek safe-haven asset ke taur par dekha jata hai, yani ke turbulent times me yeh ek achi investment mana jata hai. Gold ko inflation aur depreciating currencies ke against bhi ek hedge ke taur par dekha jata hai kyun ke yeh kisi specific issuer ya government par depend nahi karta.

Central banks sab se bade Gold holders hain. Apni currencies ko turbulent times me support karne ke liye, central banks tend to diversify apni reserves aur Gold kharidte hain taake economy aur currency ki perceived strength improve kiya jaye. High Gold reserves kisi country ki solvency ke liye trust ka source ho sakti hain. Central banks ne 2022 me apni reserves me 1,136 tonnes Gold joda, jo ke takriban $70 billion ka tha, World Gold Council ke data ke mutabiq. Yeh highest yearly purchase hai jab se records shuru hue. Central banks emerging economies jese ke China, India aur Turkey apni Gold reserves ko tez raste se barha rahe hain.

Gold ka ek inverse correlation hai US Dollar aur US Treasuries ke sath, jo ke dono major reserve aur safe-haven assets hain. Jab Dollar depreciate karta hai, Gold tend karta hai upar jane ke liye, jo ke investors aur central banks ko turbulent times me apne assets diversify karne ka moqa deti hai. Gold ka risk assets ke sath bhi inverse correlation hai. Stock market me rally tend karti hai ke Gold price ko kamzor kare, jabke riskier markets me sell-offs Gold ke precious metal ko favor karti hai.

Price wide range ke factors ki wajah se move kar sakta hai. Geopolitical instability ya deep recession ka dar kisi waqt bhi Gold price ko escalate kar sakta hai, uske safe-haven status ki wajah se. Ek yield-less asset ke taur par, Gold tend karta hai ke lower interest rates ke sath barhta hai, jabke higher cost of money aksar yellow metal par asar dalta hai. Phir bhi, ziada tar moves is par depend karti hain ke US Dollar (USD) kaisa behave karta hai kyun ke asset ko dollars (XAU/USD) me price kiya gaya hai. Strong Dollar tend karta hai ke Gold ke price ko control rakhe, jabke weak Dollar likely hai ke Gold prices ko upar push kare.

GOLD ke liye outlook
Assalam Alaikum!
Haqiqat me, sona ne 2,512.89 ki muzahmati satah se shuru hui apni niche ki rujhan jari rakhi. Qimat sirf 2,479.29 ki support satah par ruki, jahan se ooper ki taraf movement dobara shuru hui. Halankeh, mai ab bhi is jodi ke liye niche ki taraf rujhan ko tarjih ke taur par dekh raha hun, halankeh islah abhi khatam nahin hui hai. Mai 2501.90 ki muzahmati satah ka test karne ka intezar kar raha hun. Is satah se, mai tawaqqo karta hun keh 2431.23 ki support satah ko hadaf banate hue, farokht ki ek nayi lahar shuru hogi. Halankeh, agar muzahmat toot gayi aur qimat badh jati hai to, traders asset kharidna jari rakhenge, halankeh mujhe is par shak hai.
GOLD

ka body imbalance area ke andar band ho jata hai, to ye is baat ki nishani hai ke market ke players is area ki izzat nahi kar rahe hain. Is liye hum agle reaction ko dekhte hain. Phir ya to ek breakout hota hai, aur hum naye scenario par nazar rakhte hain, ya ek nayi candle pichhli candle ke maximum/minimum se liquidity ko nikaal sakti hai aur palat sakti hai, jise ek poora reaction dikhaya ja sakta hai. Aur yahan duality ki koi jagah nahi honi chahiye. Author ki recommendations ko dobara dekhain. Ye areas wo hain jo zyada tar price ko attract karte hain, aur inhi areas mein reactions ke sath movements shuru hote hain. Chaliye ab XAU/USD (GOLD) currency pair ki halat ko dobara analyse karte hain. Dekhein, price ne pehli swing liquidity ko 2477.278 ki value ke sath test kiya hai, aur reaction kahan gaya? Sabse qareeb imbalance (price gap) ka location kaafi door hai - 2417.264, lekin isay nazarandaz nahi kiya ja sakta. Ye samajhne ke liye ke kya price ek qareeb imbalance bana sakti hai, humein current daily candle ke close hone ka intezar karna padega. Agar ye close hota hai, jaisa chart par dikhaya gaya hai, to ye naye din ke liye growth ke haq mein support hai. Ye samajhne ki buniyad hai.
Current situation mein, mujhe ummeed hai ke southward correction khatam hogi aur upward scenario continue hoga. Mere khayalat screen ke andar hain. Lekin aaj mujhe is asset mein dilchaspi nahi hai. Ye samajhna zaroori hai ke kya current situation mein support ke taur par nayi imbalance banegi ya nahi. Abhi, nazar aata hai ke correction abhi tak mukammal nahi hui. Magar is horizontal line ka breakout false sabit hua, isliye hum ab downward correction dekh rahe hain. Main ye nahi keh sakta ke humare paas "double top" configuration hai, kyunki instrument quotes sideways range ke andar move kar rahe hain aur upper points of maximums lower border of trading range ke support level -2384 se zyada mukhtalif nahi hain.

Kal US inflation data ke publication ki ummeed hai, isliye mujhe zyada market volatility ka intezar hai. Agar gold north ki taraf jata hai, to hum historical maximums ke naye record