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  • #11206 Collapse



    The price made a breakout on Wednesday after testing the $1.05825 resistance three times.

    Price stopped and made a retrace above $1.04000 on Friday which we can add to Friday exit where traders cash out after a strong move and get out from trades before the weekend.

    We can expect price moving higher close to $1.05000 resistance level and from there look for bearish price action signals.

    Now is the time to wait for the retrace to higher levels and from there look for a sell signal.
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    Visit me @ https://getknowtrading.com/

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    • #11207 Collapse

      Hello everyone
      EUR/USD


      Dear friends, today I am talking about EUR/USD. Market prices have been trending downward for the past few days. Their lowest point starts an uptrend after being touched support level. The market price has created a powerful support level, and The current market price is 1.03906. The price passes through powerful support and resistance. But now, the price will try to break the resistance level, after which fees will be able to create a new resistance level. Price resistance is at 1.04815. However, if prices break above this resistance level, there is a powerful resistance level above it. The following price target will be 1.05923. the h4 time frame has formed their downtrends and can make new lows after them. Currently, the market price has created a powerful support level, and now the price will rise from here, and after reaching the resistance level, they will be able to create a new resistance level. If prices new one resistance level after contacting another resistance level, then that resistance level is also the high of the month. Now talking about today's chart prepared in time frame h4



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      The h4 timeframe is set in the image above. As shown in the chart above, the market price formed a downtrend at the same time and continued to decline, but if the price managed to break out and create a powerful support level, then the market price would be able to form a new low. The price has also changed, and the price has started to rise, but there is a powerful resistance level. If the price can break this resistance level, the market price will be at a powerful resistance level in the next few hours. If this candle-closed support is below the h4 time frame, the market price will be able to create new support after reaching its support. If this is not possible and the price follows its new uptrend, if the candle breaks its closing resistance on the h4 time frame, the market will be able to create further resistance after breaking the market resistance. The following price target will be 1.05823.
         

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      • #11208 Collapse

        4-hour Technical Forecast


        During the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD fell below 1.0400 and checked a low level at 1.0350, but later on Friday, the price changed and rose above 1.0400. However, from a technical point of view, its price position is still below the 50-day moving average and the Ichimoku indicator, which indicates a bearish bias against the euro/dollar. But we can expect medium- and long-term correction on the bullish side.



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        Also, looking at the EUR/USD price chart, I told you that overnight losses stopped at around 1.0350, which should be crucial support now. The decisive drop below will be another trigger for sellers. Then the pair will accelerate its decline to 1.0300 and mark the next level of support, close to the range of 1.02500-1.02000. During this bearish scenario, we can expect a medium to short correction of the fullback of about 1.0460-70. However, a break above will potentially raise the price.




        1-hour Technical Forecast.

        On the 1-hour chart, we see the EUR/USD fell snappily but recovered slightly from the low price of 1.0350, which now acts as a level of demand. On the other hand, DXY has risen to a new 20-year high as the world seeks stability. Moreover, this, combined with the resurgence of geopolitical conflict, has affected risk sentiment and forced investors to seek refuge in safe assets.



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        Currently, its position is barely below the 50-day moving average at 1.0420-30. If the price of EUR/USD yields above the mark of 1.0430-50, its price will face high demand and stay in the zone of 1.0475. A sustained break above the psychological border of 1.0500 will produce bullish waves in the short term and may raise the price from 1.0550 to 1.0600. However, if it does not rise exceeding 1.0500 regions, you can expect sales pressure, and the price may quickly fall to a new low.
           

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        • #11209 Collapse

          Daily timeframe outlook:

          EURUSD price is hovering around 1.0410, and we can see the last support that was broken below the 200-day SMA at 1.0349, which will signal the resumption of the downtrend and the broken upside price. It will decline further below the 38.3% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0270. If the US index has additional strength in the exchange rate and the conditioning can record 105.50, the bearish consolidation may fall below 20 and the 40-day simple moving average line to 1.0300. The broken bearish neckline pushes the bearish simple moving average to confirm the bearish momentum in the pair to give a massive swing within the 1.0260 area. As we can see, the lower sloping Bollinger Bands and the middle line of the RSI indicate that the sellers are active, while the central line of the MACD trend is now turning into the best-selling directional stimulus; however, if selling pressure accelerates, the lower middle neutral range before reaching the 1.0180 support section, which increases the bearish move.
          On the other hand, if buyers produce positive drag and cross the 1.0590 boundaries, the reverse friction may start at 1.0650. Noting the bulls, a decisive breakout of this barrier could lead to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.0740, behind the 1.1180 resistance line. Strong bearish convergence to respond to buyers around 1.0470 could deal with the 25-day simple moving average and then open the door for further growth around 1.0550.

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          H4 timeframe outlook:

          On the 4-hour time frame, the last closing candles will revolutionize the sellers around the 1.0300 support area by creating a bearish correction and a descending sloping triangle wedge pattern. If the dollar index gives a bearish difference to the upper base covering the first intraday resistance level at 1.0490, the main factor will move the price towards the 1.0600 high bands in the evening session. Alternatively, in case of additional growth above 1.0550, the price may move towards a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0700 to reach the next resistance barrier of the middle lines from 1.0900 Bollinger Bands. Therefore, a step above this bar could lead the pair directly to 100-DNA at 1.1060. Approaching the latter is expected to pave the way for a 100-day simple moving average, and convergence could challenge the upside around 1.1550. The high price covers the oversold conditioning area and the upper base, awaiting further correction in the next session.

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          Huggy Buggy Trading Journal

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          • #11210 Collapse

            Weekly Update EURUSD

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            Summary

            The euro hit its most recent five-year low of 1.035 in mid-May, nearing its January 2017 low of $1.0341, a breach of which would mark a 20-year low. The common currency has been under extreme pressure since February as Russia's invasion of Ukraine deepens the energy crisis, rising inflation and slowing growth. Meanwhile, projected US inflation figures raised expectations that the Fed will tighten more quickly than other major central banks. Investors are now expecting the ECB to raise rates by 25 basis points in July and September, while the Fed has already doubled overall rates to 75 basis points.


            Fundamental

            EUR/USD reversed direction after a sharp drop on Thursday, breaking above 1.0400. The pair is affected by the dollar's market valuation and may extend its correction if hedging prevails in the market before the end of the week.Shanghai City News reported plans to ease sanctions on the coronavirus in mid-May, which helped improve market conditions early Friday and the dollar lost its appeal. The Eurostocks 600 index rose about 1% during the European morning, while US stock index futures are between 0.8% and 1.9%. EUR/USD could continue to offset the weekly losses if the Wall Street Central Index opens decisively higher and accumulates faster.U.S. Economic Documents (U.S. Investors are expecting the Consumer Sentiment Index to drop to 64 from 65.2 in April. This will not have a significant impact on risk perception unless the figure is significantly higher than market expectations.

            Thursday's weakness in the US dollar was short-lived and EUR/USD reached its lowest level since 1.0355 in January 2017. Producer inflation moderated slightly in April, according to US data, but FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks raised another leg in the US Dollar Index during US trading hours.In an interview with Marketplace Radio, Powell said he expects the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points each at its next two policy meetings, but added that he was prepared to do more if the data were "wrong".


            Technical

            The last 4-hour candlestick has closed above 1.0400 and the euro could attract buyers if this level is confirmed as support. On the positive side, our next recovery target is at 1.0470 (Stability Level, 20th SMA) above 1.0500 (Psychological Level). Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the same chart is moving towards the 40 indicator, confirming the theory that the pair is making a technical correction.

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            On the other hand, the 4-hour close below 1.0400 (psychological level) could be seen as bearish, with the possibility of further losses towards 1.0370 (static level) and 1.0340 (3 January 2017 lows).
               

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            • #11211 Collapse

              EUR/USD Technical Analysis





              Today I would like to share with you my opinion about the EUR/USD currency pair. In my opinion, one should stand aside here, oversold is the strongest, but there is still no signal for buying. Growth in both the euro and pound today can correct, sales were closed before the weekend, and on Monday we will be able to resume declines. On the technical front, there is a falling channel and a more or less noticeable rise is only possible if this channel is broken. According to wave analysis, at least 5 to 3 is already ready and we can start moving from the current moves into the correction in wave 4. However, if the pair updates today's low, the inverse extension will go up as shown at the bottom of the screen. A drop below 1.03 will be towards 1.02 minimum, and then another 4-5 down will be, and as far as I can tell, parity can easily be reached in the coming weeks. Currently, there are many difficulties in Europe, including inflation on food and fuel, the sanctions war, and the ECB has not raised its interest rate yet. In general, there is nothing to support the growth of the euro.

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              It would appear that the time is not far off when EURUSD will achieve parity (at least everything seems to be moving in that direction). In fact, if you look at the chart of the weekly timeframe, you can see everything on the chart is very technical. First, we have this very third downward wave (which was missing in the structure) that was triggered after the top of the first wave of 1.0630 was broken, and now we are in this very third wave of decline and upward movement.


              H4 Time chart
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              EUR/USD on H4 shows a fairly good channel, and it is noteworthy that the price is at the lower border, implying that a rollback is most likely forthcoming. We should expect a reversal at several levels, as you can see from my diagram. In the absence of a sell signal, I will not be purchasing.
              As the interest rate will most likely continue to rise and the Euro will most likely continue to fall, I believe that EUR/USD will continue to fall
                 
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              Last edited by ; 14-05-2022, 04:16 PM.
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              • #11212 Collapse

                EUR/USD Technical Analysis




                Therefore, colleagues, I would like to hope that everyone will be able to enjoy the weekend and be as productive as trading days over the coming weekend. In addition, I hope to avoid any unnecessary adventures. All of us rushed to draw up arrows immediately following yesterday's session with the American delegation. The conversation soon turned to the fact that a correction to the north was underway. Of course, I do not wish to hide. However, please be aware that we continue to be in a strong downtrend. That's right, my friend. I have also purchased at a discount. Still, I pledge once again (for the umpteenth time) that I will not trade against the trend. That would be detrimental to my health and to my bank account. Thus, I will purchase (and I will purchase more, because I expect a strong pullback upwards (if it does) not earlier than from the 5th figure (and even from the middle of the 5th figure). Let me skip the bottom 150-200 points, but I will have a higher degree of confidence in my buys. The market will grow as well. And it will grow strongly. This will be a corrective growth. However, when will it happen? It would have been better if it did not update the 6-year low of 1.0340. However, the market cares little about my wishlist. My general expectation is that we will be able to go into higher corrections. Possibly as high as 1.150. There will be many who will point a finger at me at the temple. There is no doubt that it appears to be something from a fantasy world. However, dreaming need not be harmful, not dreaming should not be harmful. To sum it up, I will work only in the buy.

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                I agree, for the EURUSD pair, my purchases yesterday from 1.0445 were destroyed, and now my target is the area between 1.0280 and 1.0290, which in general is not much higher than your 1.0230. But since I do not sell this pair and I cannot provide any recommendations based on current prices, we can either go to the northern pullback or even to a global reversal at any time. In general, I await the EURUSD pair at the level of 1.0290 for the next attempt to enter the market to the north or if the H4 candlestick closes above 1.0445, it will indicate that the move below was a false exit behind the stops and you are able to grow.
                   
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                • #11213 Collapse

                  Technical Analysis of EUR / USD

                  H4 Time Frame Chart:
                  Technically the general trend of the EURUSD has been bearish for the last few months because the price has dropped a lot. In the H4 time frame chart, the previous few candles indicate that its activities were in the range. However, before the market's closing, the price increased with the intense pressure of the buyers, so technical patterns indicate buyers are influential. The RSI indicator touched its lowest value, but currently, it is at the value of 39, so the price will rise.

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                  Daily Time Frame Chart:
                  The price activities were in the range in the previous few days on the daily time frame chart. This ranging zone I have shown in the diagram. On Thursday, the price dropped massively, and the EURUSD made the bearish engulfing candle at the daily time frame chart. After the appearance of this bearish candle, traders opened the bearish trades, but it was a trap, and the price increased on Friday. On Friday, the EURUSD touched the trend line and the lowest value of the RSI indicator. It had already started the bullish activities.

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                  Weekly Time Frame Chart:
                  Overall, this week, we observed the bearish activities at the EURUSD, so that's why it touched the support of the weekly time frame chart. I have indicated the touching of this support with the horizontal line. The RSI indicator value is 24 on the weekly time frame chart, so that's why the price will increase. Maybe in the next few weeks, we will observe the ranging movement, but overall its activity will be along with buyers.

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                  Monthly Time Frame Chart:
                  On the monthly time frame chart, the activities of the EURUSD are in the rectangle pattern. The price is falling and rising by following this pattern. This month the cost of the EURUSD touched the lowest value of this rectangle pattern. At the same time, the RSI indicator value of the EURUSD looks oversold. All the time frame charts are giving the signals of bullish movement, so in this case, I will suggest buying it the following week.

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                  Ertugrul Trading Journal
                  https://forum.mt5.com/showthread.php...1#post14430013

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                  • #11214 Collapse

                    Technical snapshot: EUR/USD

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                    Hi guy, how are you? The euro/dollar struggled to rally initially upward but could not extend gains above the round level of 1.06. However, the pair tumbled, breaking below the crucial support level of 1.0468. Afterward, plenty of sellers entered the euro market and continued to break down below the psychological mark of 1.04 over the week. Quite frankly, we continued slowdown this way seems that perhaps we are grinding to lower lows and the closest one is 1.0350. By the end of the week, we slightly experienced recovery, but I expect this type of recovery gets into sales soon.

                    But the quick question is which level will be the right approach to sell, I believe 1.05 will offer resistance, and this level can be an appropriate entry point if we reach there somehow. We should not doubt the mean trend in any case, which is downward. At the moment, we are just seeking these levels from which we can minimize our risk. Furthermore, I believe that significant differences between the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will continue to undermine this market. Also, energy crises in Europe make the euro suspicious, and it will remain intact unless the ECB changes its attitude.

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                    On the upside, it is hard to imagine that we may turn over upward, perhaps visit short-term upward rallies, but not more than 1.06 or 1.08. Be careful with your position size and be ensured of money management rules. That's it for today. I hope you will enjoy that. Be happy and keep smiling. See you soon. Goodbye.
                     
                    Dwayne Johnson Trading Journal

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                    • #11215 Collapse

                      The series of events illustrates Russia’s readiness to expand the feud and exacerbate the energy crisis in the Euro area. The European gas benchmark price immediately skyrocketed more than 20 percent, while the German stock market fell more than 2 percent. Market participants are still studying the implications of this situation going forward for European assets. The problem is, a worsening energy crisis could plunge Europe into a recession.


                      EUR/USD Daily time frame


                      On the daily TF, we see here the EURUSD is still moving below the 200 MA, which means that on the daily TF the EURUSD is in a bearish trend, on Thursday yesterday EURUSD also managed to get out of the side way area that has been happening for several days and managed to break through the support area at 1.0480. In the daily TF EURUSD has also managed to form a supply area around the price of 1.0494 and it could be that this supply area will be able to block EURUSD if it wants to rise again.

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                      EUR/USD H4 time frame

                      Now on TF H4 you can see here EURUSD has started to show signs of making corrections by forming a new demand area. If you look at the pattern formed by EURUSD, I think there is a possibility that EURUSD will rise to make a correction on Monday tomorrow, at least to the supply area at 1.0501. Therefore, I think we can try to open a long position on EURUSD on Monday tomorrow with a stop loss around the price of 1.0342.

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                      • #11216 Collapse

                        Last week: the EURUSD market behavior
                        The EURUSD market behaved negatively in the previous week. Two candles out of five were green, and three candles were red. Overall the trend was bearish, and the market behaved fast. More than one hundred pips went down, and the traders couldn't find any opportunity for trading. The two previous weeks showed off similar behavior.
                        EURUSD forecast for next week
                        EURUSD has seemed bearish since the quarter of the month. The dollar index is strengthening, and the EURUSD market is becoming low. High inflation rates in Europe have decreased the EURO value. America has control over the post-pandemic situation and developed the economy gradually.
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                        Technical analysis in the H4 chart
                        In the H4 chart, the trading market lies between the resistance and the support. Here are equal chances of market movement. Traders should wait for the trading and the trading market to touch one of the marks. The overall trend in the EURUSD market is bearish, but it will change. The relative strength index shows that the market will change its trading trend this week. The shooting candle formed in the last indicates that the market trend will change. If the market moves up and touches the resistance line, it seems it will go for the second resistance line.
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                        Technical analysis in the D1 chart
                        Day1 chart also shows the same trend as the H4 chart. The current position of the trading market lies at the support line. The trend line will also push the market up. So, there are two supports for the trading market, and these lines will transform the trend from bearish to bullish.
                         
                        Umair Trading Journal

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                        • #11217 Collapse


                          Good morning Monday, my proud forum traders. It's great that we can meet again in the journal update to be able to prepare a good trading plan. This time the pair that I will analyze is the eurodollar, where there is an interesting pattern that provides opportunities that can be used for trading today.

                          At a glance, last Friday's trading review, the EURUSD currency pair had experienced weakening pressure, but before the weekly market closing the price tried to recover. As a result, the bulls were able to recover their losses and move up towards the supply area around the 1.0400 - 1.0450 level. So, from a technical pattern like this, we will try to analyze it in more depth, as below.
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                          EURUSD Pair Analysis Today

                          based on the EURUSD pair chart above which I attached in the H1 timeframe, it gives a pretty interesting picture. This is because the price is still under pressure from a bearish trend, which is indicated by the presence of a moving average indicator that consistently points to the downside. Meanwhile, yesterday we analyzed the weekly timeframe which indicated that there had been a rejection of strong support. This provides a medium-term trend reversal perspective that could occur.

                          Now, because there are differences in the results of the analysis due to the time point of view, we need clearer confirmation. I think the supply area is 1.0400 - 1.0450 which will determine whether the price will remain bearish or will be bullish. If buyers can push the price through this level, there is a great potential that the trend will reverse and the EURUSD pair will strengthen higher.
                             

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                          • #11218 Collapse

                            Hello everyone, good morning! Based on my analysis, here are the best positions in the market today:

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                            Daily TF (D1)

                            For long positions, enter at the level of 1.1495 or higher.

                            For short positions, enter at the level of 1.0349 or lower.

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                            Four-hour TF (H4)

                            Here, many positions are available for trading. One is to buy at 1.0896, while the other is to sell at 1.0349.

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                            Hourly TF (H1)

                            This chart is good for quick entry and exit in the market. Hence, longs may be opened from 1.0585 upwards, while shorts may be placed from 1.0349 downwards.

                            However, deals should be set up only at the closing of the hourly candle. Then, exit at stop loss or take profit levels, otherwise, profit will be reduced, while expenses will be increased. Remember, trading is very precarious, but profitable if the strategy used is correct.


                            For longs: SL - 1.0485 TP - 1.0885

                            For shorts: SL - 1.0449 TP - 1.0049


                            Good luck!

                            ​​​​​​​
                               

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                            • #11219 Collapse

                              Good morning!

                              I look at the monthly chart when building levels. Indeed, the more times the price approaches support or resistance, the more likely it is to break through this level. Until the month is closed, it is premature for me to draw conclusions on this chart, in terms of the formation of trading signals, and therefore it can still change. As for the daily chart, I agree there are no signals about the northern correction. They formed a small corrective bullish candle on Friday, but for a deep north move, I would like to see something more serious. The price will correct the movement to the nearest resistance level, which is at 1.04959, and then I will look at the situation. If there is a pullback from this resistance level and a turning candle is formed, then I will expect the resumption of the southern movement. Here, the reference for the downward movement will be at the local support level, which is at 1.03504. If the price fixes below this support level, I will expect further southward movement up to the support level, which is at 1.01730. Near this support level, we expect the formation of a trading setup, which will help determine the any direction of trading.

                              While I am watching the further development of the situation from the outside, my mood is still southern, so I will use any northern movement to search for southern signals at better prices.Near this level, we will also expect the formation of a turning signal and the resumption of price movement in a direction.
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                              • #11220 Collapse

                                EURUSD D1

                                stopped by my trading journal. Well on this occasion I want to discuss a little about EURUSD. If we look at last Friday's trading, it seems that EURUSD had dropped to 1.0346. If we relate to the fundamentals of the decline in EURUSD, this is because Moscow announced new sanctions that threaten European gas supplies. The Russian government has put 31 companies on a black list containing parties prohibited from carrying out transactions and entering Russian ports. The sanctions include supply cuts for gas pipeline operators in several countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia, including Europol GAZ SA and Gazprom Germania. Meanwhile,
                                The series of events illustrates Russia's readiness to expand the feud and exacerbate the energy crisis in the Euro area. The European gas benchmark price immediately skyrocketed by more than 20 percent, while the German stock market fell more than 2 percent. Market participants are still studying the implications of this situation going forward for European assets. The problem is, that a worsening energy crisis could plunge Europe into a recession

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                                EURUSD H4
                                On the daily TF, we see here the EURUSD is still moving below the 200 MA, which means that on the daily TF the EURUSD is in a bearish trend, on Thursday yesterday EURUSD also managed to get out of the sideway area that has been happening for several days and managed to break through the support area at 1.0480. The daily TF EURUSD has also managed to form a supply area around the price of 1.0494 and it could be that this supply

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                                Now on TF H4, you can see here that EURUSD has started to show signs of making corrections by forming a new demand area. If you look at the pattern formed by EURUSD, I think there is a possibility that EURUSD will rise to correct on Monday tomorrow, at least to the supply area at 1.0501. Therefore, I think we can try to open a long position on EURUSD on Monday tomorrow with a stop loss around the price of
                                   

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